A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection
Creditcane™: Save me a spot on the grill since I was in NYC today.
SPXBullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above the trendline (3/6/09-7/1//10) & (2/5/10-5/6/10). Above the SMA(21), SMA(55) and now the SMA(89). Pushing towards 1110.02 (the .09 fibo from high). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1051.87). QE2infinity.
DXYBearish short day. Failed the the SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Heading for its 50% retrace. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 82.92).
VIXBearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. Now below all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 24.45). Trending down on daily 3LB.
GOLDBearish short day (too much "hair" for hanging man). Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still heading towards the 0% (we'll see). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1234.20).
EURUSDBullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Held the 23.6% retrace. Back above the 4x1 Gann. Now above the SMA(21). It's above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.2731).
JNKBearish short day (but closed higher). Still failing to close gap. Above the SMA(21), SMA(89) & SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.72).
10YR YIELDBearish short day. The new 0.0% fibo retrace at 24.69 has held. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above the SMA(21). Closed the final gap (and created another one). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal now 24.77).
AUDJPYSpinning top day again. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above SMA(21), SMA(55), SMA(144) & now the SMA(89). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 76.5856).
TLTBullish long day. Back below the SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Closed in the gap (so it's holding support for now). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 108.42). Trending down on the daily 3LB.
DJ TRANS AVGBullish short day. Back above the upper trendline and all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 4160.79). Above weekly 3LB reversal price. Trending up on the daily 3LB.
54 comments:
whats up team, out here in the great state of ohio with a little downtime so I figured I'd check in, see the markets had another nice rally today, hope you all made some money on something, got the alert this afternoon that I was stopped out of a uup trade, is what it is.
drank a lot from the bottle of makers mark last night (not a good idea at all) stars were amazing over the lake last night, felt small, caught a small fish today, threw it back in.
anyway, everyone have a good weekend/holiday.
CV,
havent really been able to keep up with the threads, if there is something I need to do for the draft maybe you could send to my yahoo email.
thanks.
@ben
I e-mailed the league with the OFFICIAL draft & time...
Monday, 7:30 PM...
The other league will be locked... I'm trying to delete it, but I haven't figured out how yet...
Anyway... get your team registered ASAP this weekend...
CV - have fun
Boring markets today... prolly boring Tuesday as well until somebody wakes up from their dream world...
@Amen
Thanks! VIX 21 - lol
@Amen
One of the best TA's ever is when VIX pierces it's weekly BB's on the low side...
Looking at things, it may take a few weeks... Nevertheless... LOL
LMAO
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/SECDesktop.jpg
Why The End Of The 'Equity Cult' Means Trillions In Upcoming Outflows From Stocks
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/why-end-equity-cult-means-trillions-upcoming-outflows-stocks
Citi's Robert Buckland is out with the must read report of the weekend, especially for all the optimists who believe that despite the ongoing depression (and as many have demonstrated, all the talk about a double dip is moot, as America has never left the depression, or as Rosie calls it a period of prolonged economic subpar activity: the latest NFP number merely reinforces the theme of economic deterioration), and despite the 17 weeks in retail equity outflows (which would be a contrarian signal if there was hope that retail would ever feel safe enough to return in stocks. After nearly 5 months of no change in trend, the debate can be put to rest, if at least for 2010) there is still hope. There very well may not be - Citi has just pronounced the "Equity Cult" dead: "It has taken 10 years, and two 50% bear markets, to reverse this cult. European and Japanese equities are already trading on dividend yields above government bond yields. US equities are almost there as well. An immediate reincarnation of the equity cult seems unlikely. Global corporates, especially the mega-caps, rushed to exploit cheap financing as the equity cult inflated. They have been slow to redeem equity now that the cult has deflated. Equity oversupply remains a drag on share prices." And as more and more companies and investors shift to a de-equitization theme, the trendline in allocation for the US pension assets will soon revert to that seen when the "Equity Cult" began, or roughly 20% of all assets, with bonds taking on an ever greater precedence of asset allocation (incidentally the UK is already back to the equity/debt relative investment levels of the early 1960s). What does this mean for capital flows? "A reduction in equity holdings back to pre-1959 levels (around 20% of total assets) would indicate considerable selling pressure to come. For US private sector pension funds alone, that would imply a further $1900bn reduction in equity weightings. The evidence suggests that there could still be considerable institutional selling to come."
So let's recap what the medium- and long-term trends for the market are:
$2 trillion in equity sales from pension funds alone as capital flows normalize now that the "Equity Cult" is dead
A seemingly endless push into fixed income by an aging demographic meaning billions more in ongoing monthly domestic stock mutual fund redemptions
Hedge funds which are underperforming the market massively, and which will see an explosion in redemption letters as the end of Q3 approaches
An inevitable change in the tax regime over the next 4-5 months, which as Guggenheim pointed out, will force investors to sell billions in stock to catch a sunsetting beneficial capital gains tax.
And yet what happens - the market surges on a negative NFP number that was negative but better by a factor of noise, compared to whisper expectation, as robotic traders pick up on the positive feedback loops to take the market higher one more time as soon everything collapses.
For all those who believe in 17x forward P/Es (expecting a 20% rise in corprate earnings in 2011 with a flat GDP indicates a serious overdoes on medicinal hopium) - Good luck chasing the bouncing ball.
I too believe in the coming outflows of stock. Soon we will all be Leftback.
Ben: try Blanton's or Woodford over Makers. Much better idea.
. . .and Andy-
your 5:30 post on Monday- feel free to let us know your picks-
If you could put that on a chart- even better- with some possible "resistance levels" and "breakout patterns"-
now that would be awesome(-:!!!
Best quote on twitter today:
"Reading my stream you'd think the end of $GS prop trading means everyone's going to magically get rich now."
@ahab
I'm going to take down that (6:38)... If you don't mind...
Did you get the FF draft log in for Monday?
goddam CV-
those were nuggets of wisdom- nuggets I say- and the French Maid-
C'mon man!
also- got the invite- will register
Just wanted to point out the masses that CAMP ROCK 2 is debuting tonight...right now.
We've got a full blow Disney channel gathering here.
Thus, I'm here in my office.
i'm loving this whole video and exchange...
little 'slice of New York' there...
http://www.businessinsider.com/us-open-fight-closeup-2010-9
In light of fantasy football and the season to come....
I sat next to Andre Johnson last night in the bar area at Smith and Wollensky in Houston. He was there with Vonta Leach (Fullback).
He's a man of few words...extremely fit looking...and no where near 6'3" tall....
All in all...seemed like an extremely introverted and serious fellow. He just chowed down his steack at lobster tail at 11pm at night...watched the USC/Hawaii game...has a few drinks....and then jumped into his black Land Rover.
Bottom Line: There is NO way one could have pegged him has one of the premier wide recievers/players in the NFL...nor a wealthy individual.
It was interesting.
Other 'take away' from just watching this guy....
If I was an owner in the NFL, would have no problem giving that guy "all the money" he deserves. He seemed really intense and serious...like pretty much his life is just staying in shape, catching footballs, and going to bed. Vonta was there to hang with some of his female friends....Andre just quickly introduced himself and never said one word to the ladies. In fact, he didn't even really talk much to his teammate.
At the end of his meal, he just whipped out two Benjamins...handed him to the fullback...and just split.
Andy-
Houston looks good
AndyT that video was wild. How can anyone argue that wasn't assault OMG
So the EWI world is divided, are we about to get P3 up or P3 down? I am reading some crazy stuff about EWI and Prechter being married to his analysis and doing some freaky stuff to keep justifying his count.
I am a fan of the sensible guy who only gets 10 comments on his blog at tradeyourwayout.com
@Nic.
Agree. That kid was a punk, but striking someone is 'out of line.' For people that age, they could have handled that a lot better...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
EW world divided:
Yeah, I guess if you're on the wrong count, it can be 'trying moments'.....there is a powerful tendency for EWI/Hochberg/Orthodox followers to latch onto an idea/count and never leave it, no matter how wrong it is.
This is why I made a point on Slide 4 to say this: "The move down cannot be counted as a completed 'impulse' of any kind. So, if we do get a stronger move higher this week, don't believe any wave counts that try to fit this into an impulse lower."
I thought we would move higher this week...so, that comment was 'pre-emptive' commentary against those who attempt to 'force' counts to fit the view.
Enough preaching now!
I'm feeling "ok" about what was produced the last several weeks....hopefully we never get too 'wedded' to anything here!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I'm looking forward to getting some sleep this weekend and watching some college football.
LOVE North Carolina (+2.5) in the big house. That looks like "THE" trap game of the week. Also, don't get suckered into taking Cincy over Fresno State in Fresno. I'm from that city....those folks will be rabid this weekend.
wow-
thought I would get a rise out of Andy w/ my 6:51 post asking about his FF picks on Monday-
I guess the dude is one serious player
The comments here about the fight video are completely correct. It reminded me of pedro throwing don zimmer to the ground.
Old guy takes on young guy and finds himself on the ground. The young guy is blamed.
Your stuff is excellent Andy, I didn't mean I favoured any EW blog over you ;)
The dollar stuff I read over and over!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rd7-4WEjdWE
Best baseball fighter ever. He got called up to the majors after this....sigh
@ ben
re: "try Blanton's or Woodford over Makers. Much better idea."
for boozing yeah, but for serious sipping, go for booker's = kentucky cognac.
just had a sidecar nightcap with my sister at the arizona biltmore. a madhouse scene, totally overrrun by the association of syrian-americans convention.
the young syrian women..., can you say steatopygous? spelled b-o-o-t-y. junk in the trunk.
attending catholic-jewish wedding reception there tomorrow. ain't america great?
@Andy
Thanks for that story on AJ... Interesting...
I like the guy... I hope he plays HEALTHY all year long... I'm kind of pulling for the Texans to make the playoffs this year finally too...
I've adopted them as one of my "pet" teams to root for... (Except when they play the Ravens)...
@Andy
Shoot... Also - you're getting ahead of CV on doing some "game picking"...
I'm going to have to get my GROOVE in gear...
CV is more of an NFL prognosticator (than college)...
So I usually don't get into the rhythm of "picking games" until the NFL season starts (which will be next week)...
I haven't been able to get a good line on the Tar Heels down at LSU...
I like the "spirit" of your pick, and you're right, it looks like it has TRAP written all over it...
I keep wondering if the some of the problems that NC has been having with suspensions & agents aren't having an effect on their focus & preparation...
You don't want to be unfocused going into a madhouse like Tiger Stadium...
I'll pass on that one...
@Andy
Speaking of BIG HOUSES, I offer you an even BIGGER HOUSE...
I kind of like Connecticut going into Ann Arbor...
If I get some time to look at some of the game match-ups, I'll post my picks up on the blog...
@ben
Get your team signed in... (check your -email)...
Also... Andy... remind Scott (I sent him e-mail too)...
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aNLtpMBg8ZpM
Sept. 3 (Bloomberg) -- The number of Americans who were self-employed dropped in August to the lowest level in eight years, showing the economic recovery is not strong enough to nurture new businesses.
There were 8.68 million people working for themselves last month, the fewest since January 2002, according to Labor Department data released today. That’s down 13 percent from a record 9.98 million reached in December 2006, 12 months before the latest recession began.
Self-employment tends to increase during and immediately following economic slumps as tight labor markets prompt recently fired workers to venture out on their own, said Scott Shane, a professor of economics at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland. The data this time is testament to the lack of credit and a slump in demand that is choking small businesses, he said.
Nic@11.40. Thanks for those nice words.
On the one hand, the playing field is stacked big-time against small businesses.
1. The Fed finances big businesses, so that they can borrow at below-market rates.
2. Fed-financed big businesses now have "strong hands" to hold onto their assets at non-market-clearing levels. Those levels are out of reach of small businesses.
3. The government "ecosystem" (government jobs AND contractors) pays bubble-level wages/bennies to its workers. Small businesses can't compete with those wages.
On the other hand, there were probably just too many "small businesses" there for a while anyway. Aren't many "small businesses" in the real estate industry? We need fewer of those. So, "market distortions" isn't the only explanation. We don't need so many people driving their SUV's around showcasing new strip malls to house (Mish's favorite) nail salons.
Now the U.S. government is bailing out banks in Afghanistan
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/05/world/asia/05kabul.html?_r=1&hp
DL...wow.
Bush is bad?
By a 50-42 margin, voters in Ohio say that they’d rather put George Bush back in the White House than to endure more time with Obama:
http://tinyurl.com/25se3x2
Just wanted to post the total of unpaid loan amounts on Laguna Beach homes going to auction this week.. in excess of $14.77 million.
Every week seems to be a minimum of $10 million and how many months have i been following this?
Also, a bank owned home is up for sale (foreclosure) with an unpaid loan amount of 19.95 million.. i would love to know which bank it is.
http://lagunahomes.ocregister.com/
Nic, thanks for the tradeyourway.com site.. very interesting! great format!
@CV:
I also thought UCONN had a chance in Ann Arbor, but after seeing that first half, I can't imagine them making up that much ground. Michigan surprised me. They still look soft and I am still confident that Michigan will finish near the bottom of the Big Ten (eleven->twelve).
@Anon
I'm kinda watching the game right now...
In between building a terraced level of planter decks, cooking some BBQ ribs, and drinking house wine...
My "decking system" (at the farm), now, looks like the hanging gardens of Babylon, and would put the Swiss Family Robinson to shame...
As for Conneticut... I'm just kind of surprised that they only managed to put up 10 points against a SWISS CHEESE defense of Michigan...
It might not be my day on that call...
Also - I spoke in ERROR above... The NC/LSU game is in the Georgia Dome (not Tiger Stadium)...
I have no call on that game... I'll leabe it to andy...
CV
Andy,
Do you subscribe to NEoWave?
I am going to get his book to start expanding my view of EW.
Out of curiousity, the comment on chart 4 last week about not trusting counts going lower - I assume the fact a new low (1039.83 vs. 1039.70)was put in place after this chart was posted had little effect on this view?
Here is something I found amazing:
Question:
How does your analysis differ from orthodox Ellioott Wave analyst's who, once again, are predicting a depression and a Dow down to 400?
Answer:
NEoWave has been telling me the same thing for more than 2 decades...an impulsive advance began in 1982. Wave-4 (down) of that impulsion commenced September 2000 and will last about 20 years, maybe more. Wave-5 of this 70-80 year bull market will start around the year 2020 and produce the most powerful advance in history. The DOW will easily exceed 100,000 (potentially 200,000) by or before the year 2065! If you look in the back of MASTERING ELLIOTT WAVE, there is an article written for CYCLES magazine in the summer of 1988 which maps out this exact, same scenario. In other words, I've had the same, long-term perspective on the U.S. stock market for 22 years!
mcHappy...
Interesting that you 'found' that article....I've dedicated an entire essay to that idea/wave count this weekend...
Consider this comment from the March 2010 Elliott Wave Theorist:
"...mutual funds now carry only 3.6% cash on average. This percentage is lower than that at the 2000 high and nearly matches the all-time low of 3.5% registered at the 2007 high. In other words, stock fund managers today are as certain about continuously rising prices as they were at the two biggest tops of the past 80 years. This is another time-proven indication of a major top in the making."
How about recently? The percentage is even lower. The Investment Company Institute states that liquid assets of stock mutual funds in July was only 3.4%.
As far as we know, that percentage of cash in mutual funds is as low as it has ever been!
Moreover, these funds were practically fully invested right before the worst performing August for stocks in nine years. The Wall Street Journal online reported September 1:
"Stocks limped to their worst August since 2001...The blue-chip index's 4.3% drop for the month was the worst since a dismal May, and the measure's first down August in five years...The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index fell 4.7% for August, while the Nasdaq shed 6.2%."
Is that 3.4% cash level of stock funds a flashing contrarian indicator -- saying the "smart money" is the wrong side of the market -- again?
"smart money"
Ha!
What an oxymoron...
Sorry...
Just peepin' in...
I've got, like, 4 fantasy drafts today...
More busy than on a stock trading day...
BE - get your team signed up...
I've got to go put a whip down on the last stragglers & we'll be set for tomorrow...
I've read a lot over the weekend about the mutual fund cash level story. I think most are drawing the wrong conclusions.
People are sick of mutual funds. Full stop.
BEN (above)
@bob
I'd generally agree with your statement...
From this point on... If stocks go up... I's just BOT vs. BOT...
Has nothing to do with Johnny anymore (although that's what someone will tell you)...
On the day of armageddon in the world it'll be two last supercomputers trading against each other...
JPM vs. GS (on some server which will be located in Macau or something)...
Although publicly both companies will tell everyone their prop desks have closed and the core business has moved to running a coffee shop which serves cupcakes on the side, or poodle grooming services...
I'm sure some will be interested...
Maudlin's weekly e-letter has really grabbed my attention:
The Federal Reserve and central banks in general are currently attempting a major and highly experimental operation on the economic body, without benefit of anesthesia. They are testing the theories of four dead white guys: Irving Fisher (representing the classical economists), John Keynes (the Keynesian school), Ludwig von Mises (the Austrian school), and Milton Friedman (the monetarist school). For the most part, the central bankers are Keynesian, with a dollop of monetarist thrown in here and there.
Six Impossible Things
Alice laughed. "There's no use trying," she said, "one can't believe impossible things."
"I daresay you haven't had much practice," said the Queen. "When I was your age, I always did it for half-an-hour a day. Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast."
- From Through the Looking Glass, by Lewis Carroll
Economists and policy makers seem to want to believe impossible things in regard to the debt crisis currently percolating throughout the world. And, believing in them, they are adopting policies that could will well lead to tragedy.
here is a link to the maudlin piece if you don't subscribe.. http://www.safehaven.com/article/18082/the-last-chapter
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/01/us/01jobs.html?_r=1&src=mv
New Job Means Lower Wages for Many
“There’s a striking contrast so far between which industries have lost jobs and which ones are growing,” said Annette Bernhardt, policy director for the law project. “If this kind of bottom-heavy job creation continues, it could pose a real challenge to restoring consumer demand and making sure working families have a way to support themselves.”
Both studies are disquieting because of the potential import for many who had once scratched out middle-class livings and are now looking for work. A unifying theme is the stubborn march of labor-intensive, low-paying service jobs, like the ones Ms. Ings and Ms. Nelson found.
...If there are any significant numbers of people who have accepted jobs at a lower pay scale than what they lost, this seems to me to have a drag on any future recovery. These people will be penny pinchers for years..
TJ Houshmanzadeh to the RAVENS...
He He He... I knew it!
Leinart to TEXANS...
"Whoo hoo" - lol
Ravens are getting stacked at receiver.
Post a Comment