AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection



Creditcane™: Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water...



SPX
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below the trendline (3/6/09-7/1//10). Still holding 1041.83 again (.1459 fibo from high). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1071.69). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish long day. Back above the SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 83.31).




VIX
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still holding below weekly 3LB mid but above monthly 3LB mid. Still below the SMA(89). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 27.46).



GOLD
Doji day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still holding onto gains (heading towards the 0%). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1227.00).



EURUSD
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Held the 23.6% retrace. Still failing the 4x1 Gann. It's above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.2654).



JNK
Bearish short day. Still failing to close gap. Still above the SMA(89) and above the SMA(144). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.72).



10YR YIELD
Bearish short day. Still confirming inverted hammer. The new 0.0% fibo retrace at 24.69 is holding. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 27.81).



AUDJPY
Bearish long day. Tested but failed the SMA(55). Midpoint above EMA(10). Closed below the 23.6% retrace at 75.5696. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 79.1783).



YEN (FXY)
Bullish short day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above the 14.6% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 117.63).




DJ TRANS AVG
Bearish long day. Back below the upper trendline and the SMA(233). Still below the SMA(55) and SMA(144). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 4236.96). Back below weekly 3LB reversal price.



LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Bond Report 8.30.10

A risk-off day in credit. LB is not a chartist, or a Fib merchant, but the moves in LQD, TLT and TBT were close to a 61.8% retrace of Friday's bloodbath.... today was a flattener, with the 7-10y being very strong. IG outperformed HY, and TIPS were well bid on a POMO day.

Corpies: LQD 0.65%; AGG 0.68%; JNK -0.10%; HYG 0.18%;
Govies: TLT 1.91%; IEI 0.52%; TIP 0.45%
Hedgies: TBT -3.73%

TLT is either making a lower high here, or else it will continue to surge higher as yields drive lower and lower on "the economy" and "the FED".

We tend to think that there will be a pull-back in Treasuries here, so we are hedging our fixed income for now. We are long AGG, LQD, JNK and HYG in various proportions.

For now, we are in the camp that says 1040 holds, yields have put in their lows, and there will eventually be a move out along the risk curve. If there is a decisive break of 1040, we will obviously re-evaluate.

33 comments:

Andy T said...

Interesting day.

My "make or break" short term level on the DXY held, which was nice. Fricking hate stopping out of trades.

S&P and Notes surprised me a little but key support has gotten snapped yet on the S&P.

Why can't the BOJ bring down the Yen? WTF is going on there?

All in all....a good day to be short S&P and long the DXY....

As that f-tard Denise Garterman might say: "Do more of which is working and less of which is not."

Andy T said...

"key support has not gotten snapped yet.."

Ben22 said...

The Black Keys

CV said...

@karen

(from other thread)

"took a foto of a blimp on saturday over the ocean with huge cloud bank hovering off shore"...

Ladies & Gentleman... karen is having HINDENBURG OMENS OF THE 3RD KIND...

Dennis Shartman said...

Hindenburg Omen spottings are going from bottom left to top right...

Ben22 said...

re: Dollar,

yeah I liked the action today, but would really like to see that extended fifth wave, some Sept UUP calls will pay real nice if that plays.

HFT 12-C said...

"I control the market these days... You want a piece of me"?...

(effin' AWESOME remix compilation BTW)

Ben22 said...

Is this part of the "inflation in the things you need" theme?

http://videogames.yahoo.com/events/plugged-in/microsoft-raising-xbox-live-membership-prices/1409254

CV said...

"Is this part of the 'inflation in the things you need'"...

Naw...

When they start CHARGING for FANTASY FOOTBALL league hosting & blogging, you'll know we're close...

Do a "comparative analysis" on

- beer
- cheese nacho sauce
- chips
- dogs
- AUTHENTIC NFL merchandise

and if they follow suit... You'll KNOW we're there...

CV said...

@Amen

How sweet would it be for the S&P cash to OPEN with a .009 fibo from todays close (which would be 1039 & change)...

Trigger MAJOR stops and sell down anywhere near the 1010 level...

Catch a major END OF DAY "covering" rally...

But still CLOSE under 1030... (end of month 3lb TREND confirmation)...

I swear... It could do anything it wanted after that and CV would be a happy camper...

CV said...

Oh... and by the way...

JPM (who was gorging themselves on IWM on Friday...

Bite me! :-)

CV said...

FWIW

The 200MA (daily) also ticked DOWN today for the first occasion since 7/1 (when the S&P hit the 1010 bottom)...

Many here are more interested in FIBO's (CV included)... But I'll remind you that 61.8% of the ration between 144 and 233 = 199...

Basically... 200...

The 200MA (with exception to the 1010 low), had not ticked down since the days prior to the 2008 crash-ola)...

Homer Simpson said...

DOH! (mo arrigato Mr. Roboto)

Overnight candle ain't shapin' up too nicely on NIKKEI thus far...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3cShYbLkhBc

Mr. ROBOTO said...

I'm KILLROY!

AmenRa said...

The Nikkei realized that the BoJ is like a dog with no teeth...all bark and no bite. FX traders are going to run the yen higher until the Boj cries "Tio! Tio! No mas!""

CV said...

ZH

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/hildebrand/EURCHF%208.30_3.jpg

"EURCHF has just taken out all stops as it plunged by almost 60 pips in the span of a few minutes as Japan opens.... Which opened about 2% down... Which goes to show just the idiocy levels of our markets - there was nothing incremental from last night's BoJ decision, so the Nikkei should have been dropping then. But instead it decided to trade way higher and only plunge once Made In New York Atari algos told it it was safe to plunge. Either way, set your alarm clocks to around 5 am, which is when the SNB tends to intervene most often, and have those upside EURCHF stops ready, as the pair is wound so tight it is just waiting for the Hildebrand match: the (very temporary) bounce, which will cost the SNB another CHF10 billion will likely send the CHF about 150-200 pips lower, only to retrace all losses imminently. Either way, tomorrow will be a day of fireworks. Also, time to put on all those way out of the money GTC bids..."

CV said...

Like from this AM...

REDUX...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-f4SvEpF0vY

CV said...

Actually...

I'm thinking MONTREUX might be more appropriate in this case...

Hard to keep up these days :-)...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=arpZ3fCwDEw&feature=fvw

wunsacon said...

When I read "Hindenburg Omen", I visualize a combination of the Zep I and II album covers and hear the opening riff of Communication Breakdown.

CV said...

@wunsa

We're on LED ZEPPELIN IV at this point (in the H.O.'s)...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9WFw7rgPumY

Damn... I'm giving away all my TUESDAY MORNING leads...

CV is "burying the lead"...

Nic said...

I doubt the SnB will intervene:
The Irish Times:
STATE-OWNED ANGLO Irish Bank is expected today to report a loss for the first half of this year well in excess of the previous six-month deficit of €4.1 billion posted last year.
This would lead to Anglo setting a new Irish corporate record for a loss in a six-month period.
The bank will report the losses incurred on the transfer of the first €9.25 billion in loans sold to the National Asset Management Agency, and further losses on non-Nama loans and investments.

Andy T said...

Anyone have any DSI readings on the Yen right now? Just curious if EWI has put out any readings lately on that one. I'm looking for reasons to short the Yen soon, against any rational judgement.

What a beast. I'm like a moth to the flame for a Yen short.

CV said...

NEW THREAD GOING UP - (In a minute or two)

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