Morning Corner 4.13.11

Copper (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=up
high= 4.596
rev= 4.176; mid= 4.386



Rumor is that copper is weak. It just started trading below its weekly 3LB mid. I'd wait until there is a weekly 3LB reversal before worrying. China may have enough warehoused but that might not be a reason for a sell off.



BBY (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=down
low= 28.66
rev= 31.56; mid= 30.11



For BBY to be the dominate consumer electronics supplier its stock doesn't show it. Is this more proof that the US public have been cutting back? It's back above its weekly 3LB mid this week but that may be because its earnings season. That long bearish candle for the week of 12/17/10 broke through the neckline of the head & shoulders. It has yet to recover.








21 comments:

CV said...

Good Trader Dan from yesterday...

Simple...

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/04/goldman-sachs-jams-bonds-higher.html

"after looking at the price chart and noting how the rise in crude from mid March onward corresponded directly with a move lower in the bonds, it is evident that the bond market WAS NO LONGER viewing the rise in crude as a deflationary factor as it had done so a month earlier, but was now firmly pricing in the rising price as an inflationary event.

Today we suddenly get Goldman telling the world that the bond market has it all wrong and that the rising crude oil price is going to again be deflationary. Thus the recommendation to sell commodities, gold included, which has the effect of dropping crude lower and moving the bonds higher."

CV said...

I thought this was funny... (comment)

"I decided to do some market research... I put some 100 tr. oz. Englehard silver bars up for sale at spot price no premium on craigslist. If we were in a bubble or mania phase I figured I would get a shitload of calls. So far all I have had was one response from an idiot who wanted to trade an ipod, an xbox and $500 in exchange for a $4000 bar of silver. No other calls, no inquiries, all I have heard is crickets chirping. Bubble my ass. BTFD. Yours, Maverick"

AmenRa said...

CV

That's a pretty good way to test a theory.

AmenRa said...

All bank earnings report should open with "Don't Believe The Hype" playing in the background.

CV said...

@Amen

I'll test it out some more right here...

Andy... I'll trade you an iPod and and xbox and $500 for that bag of silver coins you found...

Deal? :-)

CV said...

@Amen

JPM's .29 cents pertaining to "loss reserves" on credit cards...

Hmm... take your pick...

1. Peggy Jospeh not paying her mortgage (per Obama's instructions), and just paying on her plastic...

OR

2. JPM just "writing off" lots of unpaid credit cards and selling them to collection law firms at a nickle on the dollar...

CV said...

See?

IMO... What you're seeing right now (underneath it all), is a kind of STEALTH VIGILANTE-ISM...

People "writing themselves a bailout" (by not paying loans - their personal credit profile be damned)...

In the end, banks don't really suffer (because they can get bailed out for ANY losses)...

The defaulters (along with everyone else) end up paying the cost through higher taxes, and fiat devaluation...

In theory... It's the SAVERS who get screwed in this scenario... AND/OR the 'traders' (who would hve to be VERY GOOD to navigate in a small boat)...

But as with anything else... If you're NOT AWARE of the ocean you're sailing in, you have no business being in a boat in the first place...

and/or

"You're gonna need a bigger boat"

Andy T said...

I guess the Silver short isn't bankrupting JPMorgan yet.

AmenRa said...

CV

I'll go with #2. Selling off the losing portfolio to another company so they can reduce loan loss provisions. BUT we need to know if said company is not related to JPM in any form.

Anonymous said...

07:14AM Silgan to buy Graham Packaging for $1.3 billion at Reuters

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=GRM

now ~20.96 +4.25 (25.43%)

glad I closed that Short..

ibid.

CV said...

I guess the Silver short isn't bankrupting JPMorgan yet

That's what always makes me laugh about the FUBM crowd...

All these TBTF's got bailed out by the US taxpayer (which is NOT GE or Warren Buffett) on the housing debacle...

So what would stop them from getting backstopped on as many "short tickets" on paper silver as they wanted...

Straight into FILE 13 in the Bernank's office...

As I've said before... The glorious reson for having a paper market in gold, silver, & other PM's is that it can be used for as long as needed to keep a lid on prices, and keep the fiat game going as long as possible...

Meanwhile, the mountains of new debt fiat conjured can be incrementally used to buy the physical precious...

When the switch is finally flipped, the bankers will still have all the precious...

Oh... and they'll also have that land that you borrowed money to buy, but couldn't afford to pay for...

CV said...

California Seizing Property from Safety Deposit Boxes

http://blog.mises.org/16433/california-seizing-property-from-safety-deposit-boxes/

I guess that's where Californians stuff all their IOU's...

AmenRa said...

CV

Story is a few years old but still relavent. What if they were still paying for the boxes after they were sold? Can they get their items back if the sale was declared illegal?

AmenRa said...

BKX, KRX, XLF getting killed. C, BAC, JPM, WFC are also getting thrown out. I guess JPM's missing on revenue says more than anything else.

AmenRa said...

Oops that s/b relevant.

AmenRa said...

CSCO's weekly bullish engulfing is not being confirmed. May look to retest lows soon.

Andy T said...

Obama awards retired Space Shuttle to some nice "backers"....

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lanow/2011/04/nasa-space-shuttle-endeavor-los-angeles-texas-ohio.html

CV said...

@Andy

Can't land an NFL team... But the space shuttle???

No prob...

Andy T said...

One wonders why the Government didn't just Auction off the Shuttles? Go Min. Reserve at $200MM...recoup some of the cost...

Find out who "really" wanted to buy...

Jennifer said...

From all the whining in the news around here I'd think Chicago really wanted one.

LB said...

The Bond Report 4.13.11

Another odd day in the bond market. Fairly quiet except that 10y and 30y went bid on the back of an indifferent 10y auction before tomorrow's POMO of... the very same 10y. In corporates, HY was off the hook for some reason. In muniland the action in IQI continues to be horrendous on a day when everything else was performing decently.

Corpies: LQD 0.18%; AGG 0.11%; JNK 0.55%; HYG 0.48%
Govies: TLT 0.63%; IEI 0.11%; TIP 0.22%
Munis: IQI -1.01%; MUB 0.00%
Mortgages: MBB 0.11%
Specialty: ZROZ 0.73%; TBT -1.13%; EMB 0.10%

We are not terribly excited about US credit just now. We are 19% long. The breakdown is 7% JNK, 3% AGG, 6% TLT, 3% IEI. We are hedged to 15%, so net exposure is 4%.

In equities we are 26% long (all dividends) US, plus 5% long EWJ. Cash is king.

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