A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.
Creditcane™: I am the voice that whispers in your ear "Danger".
SPXSpinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Above the 14.6% retrace (1319.09). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1335.54). QE2infinity. "JBTFD. Don't question it. Just do it."
DXYBullish short day (bullish thrusting?). Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of new 0.0% retrace (74.84). Below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 76.04).
VIXSpinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 17.87). Still in the "no fear" zone.
GOLDDark cloud cover day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace. Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1452.50). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.
EURUSDBearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above 1.4346 (the 76.4% retrace). Above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.4207).
JNKBearish long day (confirmed dark cloud cover). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Still above its 50.0% retrace (40.42). Still below lower trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.21).
10YR YIELDBearish short day. No test of 0.0% retrace at 37.44. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed 76.4% retrace (36.02). Held the upper trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 34.91).
WTIBearish engulfing day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace. No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 108.47).
SILVERBearish thrusting day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace. Holding upper trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.19).
BKXSpinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(89). Still above its 38.2% retrace (51.48). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 53.31).
44 comments:
Creditcane™: I am the voice that whispers in your ear "Danger".
Shouldn't a "Will Robinson" go with that?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RG0ochx16Dg
Pretty ominous day for things like Silver and Oil. It seems like we're in the beginning of a multi-day correction. Sideways/lower should be trajectory on silver and oil for the next few days.
Read and a pretty decent article on CNBC today. I was surprised because it seemed fairly 'enlightened' and lucid. Then, I realized it wasn't written by anyone employed by CNBC.
Why Most American's cheat on their taxes:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42472944
Liverpool thrashed Man City today...somewhere there's a Leftback smiling.
@Amen (from other thread)
"The 25 strike Open Interest was 6054 and someone bought 100k at that strike. I didn't see it hedged anywhere so it was a bearish bet alright. Could this be JPM using cash to force an exit from the hole they're in?
Yeah... Basically it was 'a million dollar bet'... (at 10 cents)...
Which, at first blush, (to ME, at least sounded kind of CHEESY)... IOW - Didn't, 'at all' pass the SMELL test of INSIDER shenanigans...
Ironically (which made me laugh), was the fact that - based on that CHART LINK I posted earlier - that $25 strike is about EXACTLY where one would want to be positioned to profit from that kind of bet...
I'm not insinuating anything by that (or its relevance to the chart itself or "QE18")... Just saying it's all a funny coincidence...
Probably the MORE interesting story is...
Who was the WRITER of that bet?
Also... Your point on the "hedging aspects" (or lack of 'seeing' them firsthand) is valid...
Something tells me that either 'IT IS' (somewhere and somehow being done shadow or secondary)...
OR...
The player in question is a dumb bag of rocks (which, as you know, narrows the playing field as to possible candidates [if you know what I mean])...
@Andy
"Pretty ominous day for things like Silver and Oil. It seems like we're in the beginning of a multi-day correction. Sideways/lower should be trajectory on silver and oil for the next few days."
I sure hope so...
Despite my bullishness on silver... I'm not liking this recent vertical move one bit...
And I would be VERY happy to see gasoline come down...
My 'wet dream' in this moment would be to see roughly a 30% correction across the board between now and the end of summer...
I really think it will be the last time to board the train before it leaves the station for good...
Silver...
42 to zero... plays out this way...
50% correction (back to $21 - which you and I have an 'unofficial' bet on whether $50 or $21 will be hit first)...
61.8% takes it back to $16 (where the QE2 rally started last summer & CV started saying "silver bitchez")...
38.2% takes it to $26 (where there is pretty decent chart support)...
JUST SAYING...
---
But of course we all know it's going to ZERO (because it's a BARBARIC RELIC)...
Instead - FIAT LINEN DOLLARS??? To the moon! :-)
Speaking of "To the Moon!" (or at least 'out of the atmosphere'...
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110411/sc_afp/russiaspace50yearsgagarinoffbeat
Sausages bitchez!
Say it isn't so!!!
Ex-college basketball players charged in game-fixing
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110411/us_nm/us_basketball_fix
NOBODY! NOBODY! I tell you... 'fixes' anything...
Not basketball players, boxing fight promoters... Professional Wrestling (that's NOT staged)... Central Bankers???
No...
It's all just TD Ameritrade account holders 'firing off the trade' with their pattern recognition software...
Wait... Here's the 'good part'...
"The indictment charged that the profits from selling marijuana and betting on the games were used to fund further dealing and bribing...
CV couldn't even MAKE THIS STUFF UP - ror
But keep telling yourself that CV is the idiot here...
---
The TRUTH to that story is the following...
Back in, I think, 1983, I was renting a house in Los Angeles with my brother and this other dude...
It came up... one night... during a session of beers that my brother (was a 'hypocrite'), and the dude (was an 'asshole')...
Then... They both looked at CV as said...
"Basically YOU'RE a 'hypocritical asshole'"...
Just so you all know what you're dealing with here :-)
Here's what you NEW JERSEY folks have to look forward to...
Olympian Carl Lewis announces run for NJ Senate
http://sports.yahoo.com/top/news;_ylt=AlSLV097GSAjMUfvaSCP2AI5nYcB?slug=ap-carllewis
I'm thinking he might WIN!!!!
After all... A failed AUDITION for 'American Idol' must, just must, qualify someone for political office as much as 'COMMUNITY ORGANIZER'
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HJLvCM4j2mg
I'm guessing 'Bristol Palin' might make it into the Oval Office before her mom ever does...
Andy T
"Read and a pretty decent article on CNBC today. I was surprised because it seemed fairly 'enlightened' and lucid. Then, I realized it wasn't written by anyone employed by CNBC."
I had to turn away from the computer before my coffee ended up all over it LMAO.
"Plan your trade. Trade your Plan"
I "scale" sold 60% of that Silver we had increasing the size of the sales as we approached 40. I'm done for now.
Will likely just keep the rest around no matter what...
Tough to know where it will end, but I've got a strong feeling we'll have a chance to buy back $21 "some day."
Guess the question I have is....what's the best way to buy physical silver that can be traded more easily? Assuming that the best bet is actual 100 oz Silver Bars. Seems like that's the best way to go about it...you'd have the lowest transaction costs coming and going.
@AmenRa
I'm going to ADD a music video to the "Morning Corner" tomorrow (and all this week - if you don't mind)...
Got some things I'd like to express...
It'll be fun... I'm sure you'll like it... :-)
@Andy T (9:02)
Guess the question I have is....what's the best way to buy physical silver that can be traded more easily? Assuming that the best bet is actual 100 oz Silver Bars. Seems like that's the best way to go about it...you'd have the lowest transaction costs coming and going
Without getting into boring detail... You're ON EXACTLY the right track...
IMO... Going HIGH & LOW are the best bets... IOW - 100 oz. bars are harder to move by the dealers (& "junk" silver - pre 1964 coins) ar usually what the small operators have on hand...
So if you establish a relationship with these dealers, you'll pay the least premium...
For me... NOW... I'm actually kind of in the process of TRADING IN bulk sterling (75% silver) for GOLD (sub 40-1 Ag to Au)...
That is... Expecting a 'correction' in Ag, and 'less so' Au to where it might cross over 40-1 again... (which I may be RIGHT or WRONG about - but it's just a guess - NOT really important in the grand scheme of things)...
If I see a MASSIVE pullback in Ag... I'd trade the gold back (which WAS 75% sterling), into .999 Ag bars...
Probably HOLD there until the RATIO got back to 16:1 (which might not happen before a decade had passed)...
Anyway - that's the idea...
Hilarious is the fact that CV 'won' a lot of intra-club GOLF tournaments in Italy during the last decade...
Paid in .999 pure silver (trophies - [plates, cups, & vestibules])...
I'm 'swimming' in the stuff :-)
@Andy
If it WASN'T clear on the last post, I'll make it clear here...
I REALLY think the "junk" (pre-1964 coins), are probably the best VALUE out there...
They're RECOGNIZEABLE, and "cut up into weighable pieces" to perfection (to ENDURE 'any' LOSS OF FAITH scenario)...
I can't wait for the day that I can flip a "Kennedy Half Dollar" to someone for something important...
Won't be FOOD (or propane, or 'seeds') though... Already got those...
A new tractor... Perhaps? :-)
Actually... I'm hoping I won't even have to part with the SILVER...
Thus... my avatar (NICKLES BITCHEZ)...
When everybody decides they want to hold onto their GOLD & SILVER... The ROMANS will tell you that COPPER is the 'poor mans' substitute...
Those STUPID Romans... If only they'd all had TD AMERITRADE accounts they could have convinced their soldiers to accept electronic balances as remittance for their daily labors...
The empire would have NEVER dissolved!
I'm thinking more about the "coming AND going" part of holding Silver or gold . I don't like the wide bid/offer on the junk silver, basis ebay, etc. It seems like if you had 99.9% silver bars you should be able to sell them pretty close to "spot" silver if and when you wanted to dump the stuff.
The Ebay fees are 5-10% which seems egregious to me for this type of transaction.
@Andy
E-Bay?
That's the thing... Forget EBAY...
This is a 'cash trade'... ANONS want to be ANONS...
Hai capito?
Hmmm...Japan leapfrogs 6 and goes straight to 7.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/asia-pacific/japan-raises-alert-level-of-nuke-crisis/article1981113/
@Mel
I'm kinda curious what the LOCAL reaction has been towards that 'dis-information' (round your way)...
Of course - In the USA - you can count on "Dancing With the Stars" to trump all headlines...
I'm pretty sure in California everybody is just basking in the GLORIOUS SUNSETS at this moment...
But nobody is around to give me anecdotal evidence about that (so I could be incorrect)...
CV...
I don't know if the local Safeway tells the story...but CA red peppers dropped from 4.79lb to 3.79...and they languish...along with the spinach and the watercress...just when I've got a jones for the stuff.
Dollars to donuts my mom will be calling me tomorrow...and all her church lady friends...with the warning:-)
@ AT
Buying gold/silver coins and bars, I've used California Numismatic for years...
@Mel
Interesting... (really)... I've been waiting to hear something like that...
For now... I'm glad I have 3 greenhouses... It's TOO EARLY still to plant my tomatoes & peppers outdoors (but I have about 120 plants growing inside the greenhouses)...
Until the situation becomes more clear - I gotta say I'm 'relieved' somewhat by that (SAD - in other ways - as you can imagine)...
It's FUNNY (sad) too... This is the first year that I'm actually going to plant RICE seeds... Not really to grow a crop of RICE... But to grow a crop of RICE SEEDS to harvest later on...
I just try to think ahead a little every once in awhile... (a few milliseconds BEYOND the 'real time' TICKS)...
Probably IDIOTIC to do such... (but remember - CV is the "Fool on the Hill")... :-)
@q4
How do you transact?
Just curious... Because FRANKLY, in the worst case scenario, when all is said & done... I don't think it will matter that much...
IOW - I kinda 'scoff' at the ones who are so UNABOMBER leaning that they feel the need to barter their blueberry crop for silver bars...
Perhaps MISTAKENLY so... lol
In any case... I think 'local shops' are sorta the way to go (until I come up with a better idea)...
Also...FWIW...
Last year (in this month) I posted this on my MORNING AUDIBLES thread...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2eRkB3FeJE
Back then it was the S&P I was thinking... (& was only 'off' by about a week)...
Right now... I post it on SILVER... :-)
In fact... I just looked it up...
I was ONLY 6 DAYS EARLY...
http://traders-anonymous.blogspot.com/2010/04/morning-audibles-42010-be-tactful-when.html#comments
Sorry PEEPS... I'll try to do better next time (because I know that TICKS are all that really count)...
@CV
I've only bought with a check once where they shipped it to me. Think it might have been a $2000 minimum, not sure. Received the swiss francs about a week later. All of the other times I just drove up to their shop near LAX, bought my stuff and drove away. A couple of times I sold some back to them, they inspect it and cash me out... very simple. Also, I remember security guards in the parking lot so you can drive away without incident. Oh, and no tax last time I was there.
My 1st purchase, many years ago was 50ea Swiss 20 Francs uncirc @ $42... still have maybe 1/2 of them :)
Forgot to say, Goldline wanted about $10 more for the same coins when I bought my 1st Swiss Francs.
Andy, never tried to buy/sell silver bars but I have been told that unless you have a good relationship/known marking you may only get melt or slightly better. I buy eagles here, www.fidelitrade.com, they seem to have pretty good spreads compared to some of the other dealers like APMEX, the link above seems to have good pricing as well. Also fidelitrade has always had product (admittedly smaller quanities for me) even in the heart of the 2008 meltdown.
"Creditcane™"
I dare not say that word 3 times in front of a mirror!
@Q4
Thanks for that story (anecdote)... I'm suspecting that it's going to be MORE of an important thing to consider as time goes by...
PREMIUMS (over 'paper trade' ETF's - I think - are going to be relevant as people figure that PAPER ETF 'metals' transactions are equivalent to zilcho for REALLY interested traders)...
My NEXT BIG curiosity is going to be...
Let's say 'PAPER' Ag 'corrects' down to $26 (just for fun)... What's going to be the DEALER PHYSICAL 'premium' over that?
My guess is... If you transact with a local-yokel, they MIGHT NOT 'get it'... Whereas, if you deal with AMPEX, you're gonna still be looking at $2 over spot paper...
JMO... (which equates to ZERO - because I'm a KNOWN lunatic for favoring silver over linen)...
>> Those STUPID Romans... If only they'd all had TD AMERITRADE
Brilliant! I can totally see Sam Waterson in a toga!
@wunsa (12:13)
Say it "9" times... (3 cubed)... just to be safe...
At MINIMUM... It'll make the dreams of SOME such as myself, come true...
@wunsa (12:16)
ROR!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3AohA367VVk
"Put a sock in it boy!"
That's what DEAN WORMER has been telling CV all his life... :-)
I've been on DOUBLE SECRET PROBATION this entire semester!
>> Say it "9" times... (3 cubed)... just to be safe...
Shouldn't I say it some kind of Fibonacci number of times??
Anyway, good nite, CV. See youz tomorrow.
@wunsa
FIBO often 'works' (by experience)...
CV
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