Silver (weekly info)new high 40.61
trend=up
high= 40.61
rev= 35.94; mid= 38.28
The earlier sell off this week in silver is about over. This week was forming a hanging man but the tail is becoming too short which eliminates the reversal signal. No idea of when a top will appear but as long as the US is fighting over debt ceiling and deficits the top is a long way off.
Rough Rice (weekly info)-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 12.90
rev= 15.89; mid= 14.40
Not all commodities are going parabolic. Rough rice turned down in February and after a slight reprieve is about to continue its move lower.
24 comments:
Looks like they're going HOG WILD this morning...
Lean Hogs, that is...
Vegetable bandits strike as food prices soar
'We've never seen anything like this,' tomato firm boss says; truckload of frozen meat also stolen
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42603382/ns/us_news-the_new_york_times
I'm going to go ahead and say that this is a phenomenon that occurs during an INFLATIONARY environment...
In a DEFLATIONARY environment, where's the profit? Moreover - In the worst case of outright deflation, there ARE NO tomato or meat trucks...
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@18
That's the answer to your question yesterday...
The DEFLATIONISTAS... well... DEFLATED...
that's the Thing, with the 'Deflationistas'--They act like there isn't 'a dude' who can blow 'digi-"Dollars"' out of his *** ...
like, that flippin' guy, you know, "for the Good of the Country", is going to refrain from such activity--at greivious Loss to his Friends, at the min., and put at Risk his whole Franchise...
then, Tinkerbell came by, and a Glad time was had by All..
di Fini~
AAIP
CV
Farmers markets might have to add security.
It is all too bizarre for words.....
volume on ZSL this week more than doubled...
http://tinyurl.com/67xhnsy
With Greek Bonds In Freefall, ECB Intervention Absence Raises Concerns Greece Is Now Doomed
It seems that the ECB has now resigned to letting Greece fail. While previously any time we had a whopping 2 point drop in one day the ECB would promptly step in and be the buyer of only recourse in peripheral debt, it has been deathly silent today. And as the chart below demonstrates Greek debt is about to go bidless: a par 10 Year note is trading at 62, with the resulting yield now literally going parabolic. And the 2 Year is now at 16.5%.
from zerohedge.com
@AAIP
There was an article I read yesterday that laid out perfectly all the logical deflation arguments... I mean, it really had me convinced...
But your point...
They act like there isn't 'a dude' who can blow 'digi-"Dollars"' out of his *** ...
pretty much renders the classic arguments useless (or, at minumum, alters the playing field)...
I should go back and try to find the article... I think that what captivated me about it was that the author was talking about INFLATION or HYPERINFLATION being inherently bad for banks & he laid out some reasons for that...
Since this debacle began in earnest, the ONE THING I've learned is to NOT BELIEVE that CENTRAL BANK policy measures, or political policy, despite the rhetoric, is designed to HELP the PEOPLE...
On the contrary, it's designed to help them retain power in whatever situation, and screw the people... The only thing that must be navigated is to avoid UTTER REBELLION (which they have managed to do so far because of the 'distraction power' of the media & entertainment circus)...
Bernanke bragged about having this machine called the 'printing press' that could do wonders... But he also has another machine called the TELEVISION that is as important a tool as any...
My argument with the former participants on this blog became centered around that idea...
I was 'ganged up' on (because I was willing to acknowledge that, if at least TEMPORARILY, the maneuvers by central bankers & TPTB were in fact exerting a sort of gravitational pull on markets, thereby, creating outright DISTORTIONS to classic technical trading (which pretty much altered the usefulness of technical trading within shorter timeframes)...
Decades from now, it'll likely fall back into some RECOGNIZEABLE pattern of TA... But for now, it's basically a rudderless ship (and, MORE prone to the actions of these crafty/criminal CB's, than it is the "will" of free market traders)...
Sure... technical analysis still applies (even in short term bouts)... It's not like the bankers have to manipulate every tick... They just have to be around at certain critical points, to bias the outcome in the direction they want to go...
So if you're MICRO technical trader in this environment, its a lot like saying... "At 1:00PM there will be an NFL football game played"... That's different from actually predicting who will win the game (which is probably a "coin flip" option)... And it's especially risky to be performing coin flips if you don't understand that "Bennie the Mobster" has paid off a few officials to have things go his way...
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In any case... I've expressed that I THINK (unproveable) that what's going on is actually an ASSET GRAB (built on the phenomenon of having the ability to print confetti at will due to the decision of governments to shoulder entitlement forwardation)...
I'd expect an EBB AND FLOW (in terms of price PAIN tolerance for some time to come)...
So as far as "goods" are concerned... Basically, JBTFD (as you go)...
PC ratio is at 1, TRIN is 1.07, AUDJPY & EURJPY are lower, gold & silver are higher. The market keeps trying to push higher but is being met with all kind of resistance.
Capital markets are funky :D
My cash position increased from 20 percent to 40 percent. Equity profits from the Japan plunge are now locked.
Fixed income is not looking very attractive yet. I will sit in cash until corporate credit sends me an invitation to the next orgy.
In any case...
And I say this to ALL who read this blog...
I AM somewhat saddened by the dropoff in communication (read: # of comment posts)...
And, I place 100% of the blame for that squarely on my own shoulders...
While I DID understand that by making criticisms about TRADING would naturally affect (and possibly OFFEND those whose livelihood was/is centered around trading and tape talk), I actually didn't think it would be the cause to drive people away... CV MAKES ERRONEOUS ASSUMPTIONS AS MUCH AS THE NEXT PERSON...
I always thought it was a good idea to have a forum whereby differing opinions were expressed... Many juxtaposed against each other... From that, I believe, is born creative thinking...
My point is that regardless of whether CV actively trades or not (or whether, for my own personal application, I feel I can BEAT, in aggregate, what I could otherwise accomplish by taking a different strategy)...
I'm SURE that a lot of people still like to hear "tape oriented" comments... It's refreshing...
Basically what I'm saying is that what people want to do is go out to a ballpark and enjoy the game and the atmostphere... They want to cheer homeruns and strikeouts, sing "take me out to the ballgame" at the 7th inning stretch... Eat chili dogs and drink cold beer... That's (cue LB here)... "The FUN!"
Cv isn't trying to create paint a world where the ballpark is empty (because it's USELESS to play a 162 game schedule - because EVERYBODY JUST KNOWS the Phillies are going to be in the World Series come October)...
Gold wants 1490. It needs 1490. It desires 1490. Silver wants 43.
GOOG is doing all it can to stop the AH move from continuing throughout the day.
CV
They may be lurking but not responding. It happens. Plus everyone needs a break sometimes.
I'm still tripping on how the dollar sells off when the market makes a down move. The Fed cannot be thrilled seeing that. Or can they...
Bonds look atrocious at these levels. Junk looks the worst (in my opinion). IG looks fair at best; overpriced otherwise. The long TSYS is not attractive at all. If someone put a gun to my head and told me to pick a fixed income security, I would have to flip a coin to decide whether I could take a punt in the intermediate term treasuries or just eat the lead.
Equities... I don't like them either at these levels, but they are better than bonds on a relative basis.
This is what it looks like in ZIRP. Up is down. Left is right. Every fucking price is wrong.
Lurking...taxes.
For those curious what the half of life of not one, not two, but three consecutive Goldman crude downgrades is these days, the answer is - three days. It finally appears that the broader public is well-aware of just how business is done at 200 West.
Read the rest here
LMAO
Maybe pounding a point into the ground drives some away. Maybe calling attention to themselves to much drives some away. Maybe just saying the same thing in different ways over and over drives some away. Maybe they're energy is just being focused in a different direction... maybe
CSCO
Last weeks bullish engulfing has been converted into a dark cloud cover. So there is no confirmation of the bullish engulfing. They better hope the dark cloud cover doesn't get confirmed next week. If so then the lower monthly closes from 2008 come into play.
what nobody said
People will come and go and come back again. I'll keep commenting and posting as the mood strikes.
Also, sometimes it's a good venting mechanism.
I'll keep distributing Scribd files on the Weekends no matter what's going on....cause I like doing it.
Speaking of which...taking customers out fishing this weekend. Corporate "retreat" type place. So, this "evil" businessperson (me) who makes money (AND PAYS AN EFFECTIVE TAX RATE OF 30%) is going to go out of his way to drop a lot of money ($1500/person) at some small lodge in a small town. I'm sure those folks will appreciate the role of Commodity speculators and hedgers this weekend. heh heh.
So, will be a later post this Sunday.
How dare you, Andy.
I'm still around, but super busy as well...
oops, must stop that bad tick....
Is this a head fake for Momo Monday?
Dang. Gold got within .90 of 1490 and silver with .10 of 43. Sleep well Bernanke.
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