DXY (weekly info)new low 75.07
trend=down
low= 75.07
rev= 77.28; mid= 76.18
You have a collect call. From who? From the lows of 2009. Will you accept the charges? The week that ended 4/8/11 was the first week to close below the low of 2010 of 75.63. Next support is 74.17 which was in 2009. If Congress has a similar battle over the debt ceiling as it had over the budget then that will erode confidence even further in the dollar.
90 Day Treasury (weekly info)new low 0.040
trend=down
low= 0.040
rev= 0.160; mid= 0.100
All this talk about the Fed raising rates. The 90 Day UST made a new weekly low on 4/8/11. I guess the market believes that the Fed won't or can't raise rates anytime soon. So even though QE2 will end in June the PDs will be able to borrow at low rates and lend (yeah right) at higher rates.
DJ Food & Beverage - US (weekly info)new high 339.51
trend=up
high= 339.51
rev= 330.77; mid= 335.14
US food and beverage index is now above the highs from 2008. Time to stock up on catfood before it's too late.
24 comments:
@Andy (from other thread)...
On "putting"...
When you say it's all about "putting" at that level (which I generally agree)... What you need to be reading is it's all about PRESSURE...
I was a conventional putter until I started playing CHAMPIONSHIP & TOURNAMENT golf...
The higher the stakes rose, the worse my putting got... It was the pressure...
Eventually - I switched to a long putter (like Adam Scott)... Then I started putting "lights out" (because with the long putter I can use my body to make the stroke (not my hands)...
Many great golfers have gon through this...
- Fred Couples
- Vijay Singh
- Sergio Garcia
- Tom Watson
Probably the most notable was Ben Hogan himself... Couldn't putt worth a damn (which is WHY he became such a good iron player)... He was TERRIFIED of putting, and felt he needed to beat the pins down just to give himself a chance...
Watching Adam Scott (and the long stick), I literally felt like I was out there putting it myself... I KNEW he was going to make those putts...
You watch to see if he doesn't win a few majors now (provided he doesn't allow the NEW CONFIDENCE to get sloppy in the rest of his game)... That's what happened to me as well... When I started thinking I could get 'up & down' from a picnic basket anywhere on the course... WELL - Unfortunately I started hitting it INTO picnic baskets off the tee...
That's the way golf works...
http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=EURUSD&tf=h1
Mayo rolling over?
now ~1.4427
~~
cv--
re: "Putting" = Pressure, yes, no doubt.
those dudes that Squawk ~"Putting, it's all about the Putting.." are telling you that they ~"Gag" .. when going gets 'tough' ..
AAIP
speaking of The Masters, the low-Am medal winning was an impressive chap.
also, not to display any 'Tiger Love', but those shots that he hit on #6 & #8 (the 2nd one) were, really, awesome..seriously, great shots.
ibid.
Crude Oil 112.19 -0.60 -0.53
Natural Gas 4.033 -0.008 -0.20
Corn 774.00 +7.75 +1.00
Soybeans 1403.75 +28.25 +2.01
30yr Bond 118.21875 -0.31250 -0.26
10yr Note 118.375000 -0.093750 -0.08
NY Gold 1469.4 -4.7 -0.32
NY Silver 41.205 +0.597 +1.46
http://www.ino.com/
"Deflation! I tell you, it's the only way this will play out."
--quote dredged up from mid-2009
*name redacted to protect the individual(s) that confused the, current, digi-'Dollar' "Economy" (PoliSciFi Pachinko Parlor) with a Hard-Money-based Market..
file under: "SH" ..
ibid.
Bribery, it's such a lovely word..
AP:NEW ORLEANS) In the year since the Gulf oil spill, officials along the coast have gone on a spending spree with BP money, dropping tens of millions of dollars on gadgets, vehicles and gear _ much of which had little to do with the cleanup, an Associated Press investigation shows.
The oil giant opened its checkbook while the crisis was still unfolding last spring and poured hundreds of millions of dollars into Gulf Coast communities with few strings attached.
In sleepy Ocean Springs, Miss., reserve police officers got Tasers. The sewer department in nearby Gulfport bought a $300,000 vacuum truck that never sucked up a drop of oil. Biloxi, Miss., bought a dozen SUVS. A parish president in Louisiana got herself a top-of-the-line iPad, her spokesman a $3,100 laptop. And a county in Florida spent $560,000 on rock concerts to promote its oil-free beaches.
In every case, communities said the new, more powerful equipment was needed to deal at least indirectly with the spill.
In many cases, though, the connection between the spill and the expenditures was remote, and lots of money wound up in cities and towns little touched by the goo that washed up on shore, the AP found in records requested from more than 150 communities and dozens of interviews.
Florida's tourism agency sent chunks of a $32 million BP grant as far away as Miami-Dade and Broward counties on the state's east coast, which never saw oil from the disaster.
Some officials also lavished campaign donors and others with lucrative contracts. A Florida county commissioner's girlfriend, for instance, opened up a public relations firm a few weeks after the spill and soon landed more than $14,000 of the tiny county's $236,000 cut of BP cash for a month's work....
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=6897772708472791
always amazing how little it takes for these "Dignitaries" to Sell-Out their charges..
AAIP
@AAIP
Ditto on el Tigre's shots on #6 & #8... (Also - the "par save" putt on #9)...
You know... The Japanese "low Am" winner was a freshman at a university right in the middle of Sendai...
Lastly... You don't MISS 2-3 foot putts like McIlroy was missing (like- every hole), unless you can't 'FEEL' your hands...
That's what pressure does to you...
Want to see an even better example of it?... Look at the tape(s)...
TOM WATSON
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y3W6mw5W2Fc&feature=related
SCOTT HOCH (6:30)(7:20)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RAoUwZ5CLeU
or, DOUG SANDERS (can't find the video)
Famous Peter Alliss call "Oh for the love of..." (missed 2 footer on 18th at St. Andrews)...
Post of the day (from different blog)...
Dollar day planner.
april 11th - get raped
april 12th - get raped again
april 13th - more raping
april 14th - Not again. Yes it's rape time again.
april 15th - What do we do today? Besides rape. Sorry rape is all that's left to do.
april 18th - Why are tax revenues so low? Because we raped the dollar and we can only tax profits and there's no profits. Why did we rape the dollar? So all the companies we think we need to secure power lied out thier ass about profits so we had to shovel them free money. Now all we have is a bunch of billionaire asswipes that don't do anything but cruise 500 dollar an hour hookers on thier ipads.
You know... The Japanese "low Am" winner was a freshman at a university right in the middle of Sendai...
cv--
yes, that, too..it's pretty amazing to think that he could play so well after his hometown was ravaged by that Quake++ ..
he said he was going to back 'to Volunteer', I, really, hope he stays 50+ miles, at the min., from Fukushima..
would be a major f***ing waste to use him 'Pat Tillman'-estilo..
ibid.
VIX, AUDJPY, EURJPY down. Usually when VIX is down AUDJPY is up. Gold, WTI, DXY all down. If gold is priced in dollars then shouldn't it be up if dollars are down? Silver is still up which has to be p/o those who are short.
he said he was going to back 'to Volunteer', I, really, hope he stays 50+ miles, at the min., from Fukushima
Frankly - eating California grown spinach & getting milk & cheese from California would make me at least 'think' before buying for awhile...
@AmenRa (10:15)
"Usually when VIX is down AUDJPY is up. Gold, WTI, DXY all down. If gold is priced in dollars then shouldn't it be up if dollars are down?"
---
I'll say this... for the BRAZILLIONTH time... that what you're 'seeing' (and have been seeing since last summer), is the transition of THINKING of 'currency' as FIAT towards THINKING of currency as PHYSICAL GOODS...
(Insert here somebody sarcastically pointing out to me that 'Well- the last time I checked, I needed DOLLARS to buy my gizmo at the local gizm-mart'
Which would be TRUE... But that is only because the CEO & CFO of the local 'gizmo-mart' haven't yet figured out a way to do their quarterly SHAREHOLDERS report by accounting for the 'traded-in' hogs, bushels of corn, bails of hay, quarts of motor oil, 2x4's, Kennedy Halves, and pieces of 8... Besides that, the CASHIER at the "gizmo-mart" is just someone who wants to keep their job, and is more likely to do what their BOSS tells them to do (rather than what you suggest as a better exchange mechanism)...
---
So Amen - right now, I wouldn't be thinking of what gold, silver, nat gas, or whatever, are doing on any particular day...
Instead, I think you're better served thinking of a BASKET of physical commodities BEHAVING in a way that what we used to call the FOREX "carry trade" used to...
Nothing stopped traders from sliding back and forth between the yen, dollar, CGF, or Euro before (to maximize profits and take advantage of imbalances)...
Same way now, I think that nobody will have a problem flowing between grains, crude, PM's, or whatever...
But the BOTTOM LINE is that FIAT is now the commodity (as I have stated many times now)...
During this process (which REALLY has been going on since 2000), there will inevitably be ups and downs...
2008 was a major "shakeout"... But it was first real BAD one to come along... At that point, nobody knew anything different but to RUN TO THE DOLLAR for safety (which exacerbated the rout in PM's during a short window)... But the response to that has been a flood of fiat (ALL fiat - not just dollars)...
So NEXT TIME, I believe, there will be a "speculative" premium taken out of commodities (as people might look to their short term "liquidity" needs and need a few dollars for that)...
But I also expect it will be VERY SHORT LIVED...
In fact... I'd suspect that the bankers are positioning for that as we speak... As soon as the next 'crisis' hits (or - is manufactured)... They will profit on the short side of those transactions... At the bottom, they will be loading up LONG in the commodity space...
As for me... I've been RIGHT on this for the last 8 months now (if not WHY - at least the 'effect')...
If one is not TRULY focused on what I'm saying, when the next rout occurs, I'll look like a FOOL (even tho I'm saying right here that I'm pretty sure it's coming)... Afterwards, I suppose I'll start looking like I made the CORRECT call all along...
The bottom line is, if all one does is TRADE these moves electronically, at the end of the day, all you have are electronic balances and HOPEFULLY profits (to tax)...
Not my idea of a good time...
CV
Any progress in REAL SURVIVAL BLOG? I believe a lot of people know how to trade financial markets but very few know how to physical survive. We need more of the latter before it is too late.
Best regards. Cacerolo
Yeah, I liked that whole interview with that Japanese Amateur winner. That was pretty cool.
silver dropped from over night highs and now congesting sideways...loooks like more downside for the remainder of the day.
@Cacerolo
I believe a lot of people know how to trade financial markets but very few know how to physical survive.
All you need is a mouse, a few electrons (which say you effectively own linen that is backed by nothing), and an 'opinion' to trade financial markets...
Add in a few charts, and the collective library of 'opinions' from the dusty pantheon of other EXPERTS (and "not-so" experts - depending on whether the tide happens to be coming in or going out), and it's pretty clear that that you can CONVINCE yourself of almost anything...
SURVIVAL isn't so easy...
From my experience, it's IMPOSSIBLE to 'teach'... I've wasted my time trying to do that (on these blogs) for the past 2 years now...
The only way one knows if they can do it or not is when actually FACED with the necessity of doing so...
Even CV has ABSOLUTELY ZERO 'certainty' that I will SURVIVE anything... All I can do is PREPARE for what I 'think' might give me the best chances...
What I've also found is that it is EXTREMELY difficult to do in a world of SKEPTICS...
And besides... What GOOD does it do anyway? It's a little like buying car insurance... The only way to really PROFIT from car insurance is if you WRECK YOUR CAR... Otherwise - the 'premium' you paid against that is a 100% loss... I don't suspect ANYONE buys car insurance HOPING that they'll wreck their car...
To further that analogy... On this blog... CV talking about 'survival or preparation' (which is basically a PUT premium on expected or unconditional prosperity)... & telling this to a bunch of TRADERS (who thrive on the daily moves of the 'prices' of things in a debasing currency)...
Well...
It's sort of like telling someone who DOESN'T pay car insurance (only because the amount paid would inhibit their ability to put food on the table)...
What's ironic to me is ALL the criticism I hear about central bankers & politicians NOT HAVING ANY CONTROL OVER THE OUTCOME OF THINGS (which I 'agree with' in the bitter end)...
But then, at the same time, going MERRILY ALONG, trading IOU's which are a product of the very 'system' that the bankers & politicians have created...
If I'm wrong... Name me a FIAT (paper) currency that has EVER withstood time?
I'll pause & wait here for that answer...
@Andy T
Not saying this is "why" (silver dropped)... But given the sharp rise, I suppose ANY news release will have a short lived effect...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldman-causes-selloff-commodities-closes-top-5-trade-2011-long-crude-copper-cotton-and-plat
Silver could EASILY trade down to $39 without breaking a sweat...
FWIW... I'm not really a dip buyer here (and not buying ANYTHING ETF related)...
I'm actually still 'hoping' for that "QE2 is ending - no QE3" (aka - subprime is contained) announcement... To 'tank' everything for, what I'd predict, would be HALF the duration of the 2008 tanking)...
Whatever the levels are (when the tanking begins), will likely give the idea of where the re-tracement will do...
It's likely (to me - anyway), that $74.22 (dollar) will be where some "headfake" moves will commence that make everyone believe that the NO MAS moment has been reached...
That could go on for a week or two, or otherwise buy some time for the playas to skin the sheep... I think the dollar will then go to new lows (and only when it is PAST those new lows - where EVERYONE says is a technical abyss), then QE3 will come in...
Long live the HERO central bankers!
[snark off]
Maybe a gravestone doji forming on Silver daily.
@Andy
I saw this chart today (hypothetical projection)...
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/download/file.php?id=2673
It doesn't seem ALTOGETHER improbable from where I stand...
Andy T
Looks more like a shooting star but currently has too much "tail". It may turn into a doji making today the 2nd day of an evening star pattern. A gravestone doji is one where the open and close are at the lows (& the body is <=5% of the hi-lo range). The tail should be <=10% of the hi-lo range.
@AmenRa
I'd be curious to know what you guys think about that chart I linked up at (1:44)...
Actually - to be honest... I'm NOT soliciting an opinion (so basically that means I'm NOT waiting for an answer from either of you on that - I'm just "putting it out there")... I'm not sure myself if that type of scenario will play out (it extends thru the beginning of 2013)...
---
But I will say this... Based on what has been "CV's interpretation" of the effects of QE2 (since last August), and what "looks" like a battleground for a QE3 debate in the upcoming months... The chart (TO ME), looks like it may have some merit...
In a nutshell:
- A "shakeout" of commodity specs in the final phases of QE2, as the government does the "austerity dance", and the FED plays along...
- The, after a 30% drop over the summer... All hell breaks loose as the "Sheeple of America" get frightened by the US hitting it's debt ceiling, and decide to VOICE IT by polling IN FAVOR of another hike (debt ceiling)...
- Obama will look like the savior again (just in time to get the 2012 campaign started in earnest)...
- Teapartiers will be painted as the BAD GUYS just in time for deciding on which GOP candidates to back...
- The Bernank will just sit idly by, and, well, OF COURSE be the "Johnny go to guy" on the spot to provide the BUYING for new debt issuance (which, of course, will be reached again on or around election day 2012)...
So perhaps a "buying opportunity" (at a 30% discount this summer)... Maybe even crude trades down to $80 or something (tho I'M NOT MAKING that call)...
The great thing is... If it all works out (and price inflation gets rolling again by the end of 2011 and into 2012)... The "next" rise in crude prices can happen during the 2012 election trail...
That way, Obama can blame the GREEDY oil companies, and suggest we all trade in our SUV's for coal fired match box cars...
CV
If and when silver takes out the Hunt Bros high is when silver shorts should get worried. They've already tried most tricks in their book to bring the price down. FAIL.
That chart would also imply that gold would be near $3000/oz.
@Amen
...or... maybe crude at $200...
This just in... (could mean ANYTHING - so I'm just 'reporting' here)...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/drop-silver-attributed-1-million-37-downside-bet-slv
CV
The 25 strike Open Interest was 6054 and someone bought 100k at that strike. I didn't see it hedged anywhere so it was a bearish bet alright. Could this be JPM using cash to force an exit from the hole they're in?
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