The USFedRes should be renamed the US "Haunted House"
The FOMC need to start "Walking" away from destroying the last vestiges of our economy...
Our monetary policies are killing what little value is left in our fiat currency...
and of course a complimentary chart to go with the last video:
DXY (weekly info)new low 77.28
trend=down
low= 77.28
rev= 78.13; mid= 77.71
Last weeks indecision has been decided. And the decision was down. There are not many areas of support left to bounce from. Violate the upper trend line and the Nov 10 low comes into play. If that goes then the Nov 09 low becomes support. Not sure what may be support if QE3 happens.
169 comments:
102.80 this morning. That was a very short-lived respite.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-04/record-food-prices-may-persist-as-economic-growth-boosts-demand-imf-says.html
"Consumers should get used to paying more for food, after prices rose to a record, because farmers will take years to expand production enough to meet demand and drive down costs, the International Monetary Fund said."
Goldman, Citi cut to neutral at B. of A. Merrill
7:16 am ET 03/04/2011 - MarketWatch Pulse News Bullet
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch on Friday downgraded Citigroup Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to neutral from buy, saying it expects first-quarter results for both firms to be weak. The broker said the results "are unlikely to be dismal" and should show an improvement over the fourth quarter. "But we don't expect seasonal improvement as strong as often seen in the past. Client engagement remains subdued, Middle East turmoil likely only to further reduce customer risk appetite," the firm said. It cuts its first-quarter earnings forecast for Goldman to $3.91 a share from $5.93 a share and cut its Citi forecast to 10 cents a share from 13 cents a share. Shares in Goldman and Citi both fell around 1% in premarket trading.
...downgrade Goldman! I am calling for a protest at noon at the corner of Wall and Broad. Be there! (This thing might get legs!)
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/06/magazine/06Muni-t.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss
Broke Town, USA
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/03/04/global-stagflation-is-here-to-stay/
Global stagflation is here to stay
March 4, 2011 5:00 am
"Don't believe the overly bullish global growth estimates. There's plenty of evidence that growth will slow and inflation will continue to accelerate, even if commodities back off their highs."
...Obviously people have been reading reactionary blogs, such as this one. I prefer the musings of the Dali Ben Bernanke, myself..
http://nation.foxnews.com/gold-standard/2011/03/03/utah-considers-return-gold-silver-coins
Utah Considers Return to Gold, Silver Coins.
...Just one question. When CV reads this and moves the CVstead to Utah, has he already figured out what the price of talapia is in Utahrands?
Bruce
There are arounr 12 other states with a similar bill. A way for the states to express their disgust with US monetary policy.
@Amen
(Re: O'JAYS)... "Almighty dollar"...
Or NOT (as the case may be)...
@AAIP
"also, re: distilled Spirits, for Trade..
wouldn't 375ml be the best Size?
added "portability"/smaller 'denomination'??
though, they do trade at a significant premium to 750ml, and, especially, 1.75l sizes..
AAIP
March 4, 2011 1:17 AM
Anonymous said...
be able to re-produce "mass quantities"
cv--,
you stocking up on 'parts'?
copper tubing, kettle(s), sugar, grains, (grain) cracker/grinder, et al., etc.?
Answers:
You're correct about the "airplane sized" bottles (for trade)... But my thought is "why pay the premium"?... The options are to be a collector of ANY used glass jars and bottles (which I do & sterilize)... Not that I've done THIS, but anyone could go to a hotel dumpster and pretty much get their hearts desire of these things if they wanted... Or, if you wanted to PAY a small fee, you can order little plastic ones (in bulk) off the internet)... So far I just collect what I use or find... Glass containers can & will be very valuable (yet they're taken for granted) & nothing beats having mason jars... I got various sets of graduated cylinders & ehrlynmeyer flasks as well...
Sugar & Flour (check check)... But you'd be wise to ALSO have some 55 gallon FOOD GRADE barrels for storage (along with a dark basement that's equipped with a de-humidifier)... and, as an added bonus, cloaked in CEDAR...
Got the "cracker" as well (if it's a mill you're talking about)... It's GERMAN made and can do just about anything (rice & other grains as well)...
I happen to have various copper cookware lying around which I don't use (but certainly don't throw away)...
I'm tempted to buy a bunch of copper tubing & piping, but at the moment, the price increases are being passed on... So it's still NICKLES BITCHEZ... If they decide to take a breather on QE3 (and prices collapse), I might raid Home Depot of these...
Right now I have stockpiles & stockpiles of PVC piping & couplings of various sizes (mostly 1 1/4 inch which are sturdy for building frames, and 1/2 inch which are the closest measure to irrigation conduits at 30 psi)... It's [PVC]REALLY REALLY cheap (but with oil going higher - it may NOT be so much)...
People are going to find out real soon that if they want to grow their own food, if they don't have a good irrigation system, they're screwed... I started a "bamboo forest" in the corner of the property using the same logic... The Chinese aren't all that dumb...
ror
also... (back to glass)...
If a person didn't have a taste so fancy as to have to drink premium wine (which mostly is a laugh because you're paying for somebody's marketing campaign - in Italy & France, many of the best wines are really cheap...
Anyway - one should just buy the table wines (the cheap stuff) in the gallon jugs... I call it "mixer" wine (because many Italians just MIX the wine with water & ice for a cool refreshment during the hot summer - mostly the PINOT GRIGIO type wines), and the lower grade stuff... Sangria types in these volumes work well too (because you're tossing a bunch of fruit into it anyway)...
But they're valuable for the glass jugs... I got a bunch of those (as well as 5 gallon "carboys")... But the glass ones are harder to get your hands on because many are plastic now (still useful though)...
Mostly need the carboys if you're "brewing your own"... SAKE too...
http://cr4re.com/charts/charts.html#category=Employment&chart=JobLossesAlignedFeb2011.jpg
...Yes, I read the jobs number and the participation rate musings. I just had to post the red line of death from CR once again.
..full employment by 2020, or else.
I just looked at futures...
Looks like I'm going to have to get a "cotton gin" too (I admit I'm underprepared in that department)...
Outwitted by THE BERNANK again!
Blue jeans bitchez!
Good morning.. Been watching futures before and after "the number." The open is a coin toss, but need i remind you to JBTFD??
IF,we won't get back to the 2002 participation rate due to retiring boomers, where does that lead? The boomers that retire are making more money than the replacements that take their places at lower rates of pay. Therefore less taxes to the various Uncles, big, medium, and small. Retirees tend to spend less. Less sales tax.
...Seems to me a little government revenue depressive..
Gotta go peeps (I'll be out most of the day)...
Amen - I'll try to hack something up for the weekend...
McF gives his 'salute' to everyone as well, he's out of pocket probably thru the rest of the weekend...
Ciao!
CV
whatever! zerohedge
Civilians Not In Labor Force Hits All Time Record http://is.gd/TaqGq1
Did anyone watch the Ray Dalio interview??
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=3000008442&play=1
It was just sent to me as a "pls pls pls do not miss.."
ten and thirty bond prices up?? on our booming economy??
Mubarak Faces Corruption Probe For Years Of Selling Gas To Israel At Sub-Market Rates http://read.bi/fewN8Q
EURUSD has a high of 1.4001 and WTI has a high of 103.13. How mush GDP is lost for every dollar of oil increase?
>> Utahrands
I like that. Maybe pronounce it "oo-tah-rands", to make it sound more exotic and less like a simple compound word.
103.27
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-04/fed-policy-makers-signal-abrupt-end-to-bond-purchases-in-june.html
Fed Policy Makers Signal Abrupt End to Bond Purchases in June
Federal Reserve policy makers are signaling they favor an abrupt end to $600 billion in Treasury purchases in June, jettisoning their prior strategy of gradually pulling back on intervention in bond markets.
“I don’t see a lot of gain to reverting to a tapering approach,” Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart told reporters yesterday. “I don’t think that is necessary,” Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said last month.
Central bankers, who next meet March 15, are about half way through their second round of bond purchases. To bring the program to a full stop in June, they must be confident that the economy is strong enough to endure higher long-term interest rates and rising expectations of an exit from the most expansive monetary policy in Fed history, said Dan Greenhaus at Miller Tabak & Co. LLC in New York.
UUP at November low.. 21.91 (but the decay element must be accounted for, i guess.)
$usd Nov low was 75.63.. 76.36 low today.. we've got room to fall.
2008 low was 70.70.. we are tapping the trendline up from there on a log chart..
WTI tagged 103.50
TLT trend chart still up by 3 pennies..
$BKX still down, but XLF still up.. so confusing still..
Very interesting note about the stopping of bond purchases Amen.
Higher interest rates coming quickly?
Bruce.. by talking about an abrupt halt.. 4 months in advance.. that allows for hedging i guess..
Think that news might have anything to do with today's weakness?
What does The Dateless Wonder think about all this? You out there mate?
Bruce
Possibly. We'll also get to see if the PD's can handle the auctions w/o any help. It will also increase the chance of a failed auction.
OT: Blythe is not accepting calls at this time. Please call again later.
If they proceed with an abrupt halt we'll see the repositioning well in advance.
103.20
...If we lay the whip on this nag, we can reach 104 by the time markets close...
Dateless is actually practically married. He enjoys fantasizing. I know he will turn up later.
Good morning all! 2 of the 3 kiddos are home today (teacher institute day?) so we'll see how that goes :-) It seems better employment numbers are no match for higher oil prices.
AR @ 10:15.. that's what i was trying to say!
Jennifer!! shame on you.. news does not move the market.. it is only attributed to market moves.. speculators are running crude right now.. keep your eyes on bonds if you want any clue to what the market will do.. tho we seem to be in limbo.. so your nimbleness will work perfectly..
i am still fascinated with Neely's 133.70..
Bruce
WTI just gapped above 104
The Thursday opening gap higher is calling....
Uh, oh. Wasn't the number to watch 103.50?
P&F, USO bullish price objective , 53
$wtic, $135..
But Bernanke will tell you this is simple supply and demand dynamics.. just like crude at $150 was..
http://portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate_u6.jsp
...Nothing beats a graph to tell the story of unemployment...
Karen -- I, too am fascinated by the Neely call. Duly chastened re: news. just kidding
Zero Hedge says oil fields burning...(yes, I know, large grain of NaCl)..
the SPY high on march 1 was 133.69.. Do you know when Neely put his stop at 133.70, before or after that date.. I was presuming it was well before..
Lots of weird tics, highs and lows.
ticks too. This market could give me tics. I'll check on the 133.7 in a minute.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Looming-rate-hike-to-hit-apf-3800796527.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=
Looming rate hike to hit Portugal at its weakest
Don't work Fridays...pups and I will be back in a few hours...
...tell the Dali Ben Bernanke that we'll be thinking placid thoughts about the economy...
JJC might be in a bear flag on the 60 min..
zerohedge
CME Raises Margins On Crude Oil
Seems to be having zero effect..
zerohedge
CME Raises Margins On Crude Oil, Heating Oil And Gasoline By More Than 10% Each http://is.gd/exn4S1
Karen
MUST...GET...PRICES...DOWN...OR...FAKE...RECOVERY
IS...EXPOSED...
New York Fed purchases $1.500 billion in TIPS: New York Fed purchases $1.500 billion in TIPS http://bit.ly/fiKc5t
(that's all??)
What's the theory about all the long tails/strange ticks again? And the frequency -- they are everywhere today.
just for you, Jennifer.. maybe you could condense it for us:
SFFedReserve -- Working Paper: A High-Frequency Event-Study Analysis of Operation Twist & Its Implications for QE2
http://ht.ly/47ZP
Crude Oil 103.57 +1.66 +1.63
Natural Gas 3.792 +0.014 +0.37
Corn 731.00 -5.75 -0.78
Soybeans 1415.0 +3.0 +0.21
30yr Bond 119.06250 +0.68750 +0.58
10yr Note 118.296875 +0.468750 +0.40
NY Gold 1429.1 +12.7 +0.90
NY Silver 35.175 +0.848 +2.48
www.ino.com
Uh, oh. Wasn't the number to watch 103.50?
J-,
that's what I was hearing, too..
along w/ "opens the door to ~147.."
AAIP
Karen -- thanks alot! (What are you trying to say?)
MEH -- I think we saw the same woman on CNBC yesterday! As if there would be no resistance for almost 50 points.....pffft.
1332 (close above would be very bullish)
...1323 (new small strength support area)
1314 (ehh, sometimes support, sometimes resistance)
...1305 (breakdown below)
1296 (buyers with big pockets here)
...1287
1278 (not a chance, well not in the near future anyway)
Seeing some bullish action on the 18's this week, possible set-up for a run to 1350 next week. Breakdown below 1305 (50% 1314-1296) would be bearish, but strong support @ 1296, as we saw last week.
Karen -- that link was not a Fed Res working paper...but it was hysterical, and not unlike my homelife.
How to Buy Complicity: A Rising Stock Market Bails Out Everyone (March 4, 2011)
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogmar11/complicity3-11.html
Today seems to be a buy 1320, sell 1325 kind of day. I can live with that.
Jennifer! A pac man video ?? Oh, it hurt my ears! Was that someone's idea of a joke? I'm so confused..
LOL.. Jenn.. i must not have copied the link entirely !!
http://ht.ly/47ZPi it's the third article down.. but the first one looks interesting "Extracting Deflation Probability Forecasts from Treasury Yields"
In case I'm suffering from insomnia...usually red wine works well for that problem though...at least for the getting to sleep part, if not the staying asleep part.
18, thanks.. sign me up for the breakdown.. market or mental ; )
i want FAZ to run to 44..
Think that news might have anything to do with today's weakness?
In Treasuries? THERE IS NO WEAKNESS.
The bond market seems to have priced everything in quite nicely. Even we are surprised at the strength in the belly, but there may be some safety trade here going into another WEEKEND AT MUAMMAR'S.
Hedge still on, plan to keep it into next week's auctions.
$bkx nearly bearish engulfing.. this market is all so stupid..
I don't think 1320 is getting bought this time.
The 2y was briefly at 80 bps this morning. Now it is at 70 bps. Pretty amazing stuff. Somebody sees something they don't like...
Honking steepener, we are back to 390bps on 2s30s.
That is good for banks.
got a stop on your spy, lb? or gonna let that run till next week also..
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/03/04/505311/oil-facilities-on-fire/
I trust her a little more than ZH, and she talks about the ongoing wti brent spread.
FWIW- She is in the supply demand boat, there are no such things as speculators. She still knows the markets well.
We followed Europe down this morning.
They are not loving Brent $116, methinks.
@ Karen... added, but
2/24 ...1296
3/1 ... 1332
3/2 ... 1305
3/3 ... 1332
today ... 1314?
higher lows, but another but, not higher highs... just saying
John Kicklighter
Here is the schedule for European government bond auction/buy backs next week. $$ http://twitpic.com/461yms
She is in the supply demand boat, there are no such things as speculators
Of course not. We concur absolutely.
Don't we Giles?
18.. it's that torturous triangle!
J-,
quite possible, I'm sure heard that..
also, as an aside, funnily, Red Wine puts me to sleep, as well.
~~~
cv--,
re: above, 375ml are 'flasks'/'pints', not the 'airline bottles'--which are 75ml ..
and, your point about paying 'for someone else's "Marketing Campaign"', is spot-on..
AAIP
K
We will stay long SPY and long TBT into the auctions.
Then the plan is to buy ZROZ and sell the EEM.
As always we are bond-driven, but we have to watch crude.
I'm sure heard that..
I'm sure I heard that there..
ibid.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/multimedia/2011/03/oil_and_arab_uprisings?fsrc=scn/tw/te/dc/libyaandtheoilprice
The world can cope without Libya's oil—but another supply shock could spark another oil crisis..
Well, I clearly covered those shorts way too early. Did not see this coming on a quiet Friday morning.
Bulls shouldn't have allowed a restest of the weekly 3LB mid. There is a steep price to pay for allowing this to happen.
should i be reminding or daring to JBTFD..
The half life of raising margin requirements is now zero.
Karen -- I just btd. But, probably only for 5 min.
NicTrades Nicola
Everyone ready for a flashcrash?
New Video: Danny Riley on Jobs Report and Market Events Ahead http://mrtopstep.com/?p=2717
Sigh...have to go out for an hour. No flash crash without me!
oops.. danny is putting his foot in his mouth..
one min ago: mrtopstep Mr Top Step
RT @Eubiquitous: YOU HAVE JUST WITNESSED THE DOUBLE TOP OF 2011 / 1333-1336's.. this is exactly how tops get created
oh, we made it... 1314, little pause, flip a coin, hither or thither of 1314 close?
Some interesting things happening in the Treasury market.
ZH is saying there has been massive buying of 2s this morning out of the Middle East. The whiplash from 80 bps to 68 bps was quite something. This is one of a million reasons why we don't trade the front end. The rational players are all out at the longer end, further away from CB nose scratching and resultant HFT arbitrage.
Philip Etienne
Paul Tudor Jones points out that new Food Stamp recipients are double the rise in NFP for last 6 months-now that is a very interesting point
felix salmon
Federal regulators presenting banks with a 27-page term sheet, including principal reductions: http://bit.ly/giDMHw
FAZ almost back to 42..
Mish has a nice dissection of the NFP number and jobs report.
Looking back to 2010, we had a 400k+ number and we haven't come anywhere near that since. It's hard to believe that we can scrape much above 250k this spring and summer with continued layoffs by state and local government.
Our favorite model for equities is that Libya gets sorted out, Saudi doesn't blow up, and crude falls again.
Massive relief rally in US equities and dollar, big sell-off in Ts. SPX makes new high, market tops on good news. Smart punters exit.
Euro debt issues back on front burner. A sustained and strong dollar rally sparks sell off led by mining and energy and the commodity complex crumbles. Emerging markups are slaughtered.
http://www.forexlive.com/171242/all/real-money-buys-latest-eurusd-dip
http://www.kathylien.com/site/forex-blog/biggest-banks-in-foreign-exchange
the only problem i see with your playbook, LB, is that if spx takes out recent highs, it won't be stopping till 1576..
K
It is all about the bond market. Once rates have clearly reached their apex, and we see evidence of a pullback by the consumer, and a firmer dollar, this weekend at bennie's is over.
if i see one more triangle (BAC) I will slit my wrists !!
as for my wine stock, I can't take it with me, can I..
Libya is one ugly sphere of operations. Gaddafi is a different animal from Mubarak, that's for sure. He is bringing in fighters from Mali and even recruited the Tuareg to fight for him again as in the past.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-12647115
as for my wine stock, I can't take it with me, can I..
True. I am sure it is self-replenishing. A girl like you must have many vineyard-owning admirers, no?
CV got in ahead of the boom:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/In-Price-of-Farmland-an-Echo-nytimes-1982753224.html;_ylt=Ajky.bO.QvkNv2nGph3SBzq7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTFhMXI0MG9wBHBvcwM4BHNlYwNzcGVjaWFsRmVhdHVyZXMEc2xrA2lucHJpY2VvZmZhcg--?x=0
"karen said...
the only problem i see with your playbook, LB, is that if spx takes out recent highs, it won't be stopping till 1576.."
1375, is what the major 18's sez :)
1638
...1588
1537
...1456
1375 <---
...1244
1112
...1006
900
minor 18's should peg 1350, 1332 is the hurdle,
but is now neutral leaning bullish, most likely consolidation, we'll see.
http://www.goldmoney.com/short-squeeze-in-silver.html
bill gross: http://www.youtube.com/user/Bloomberg#p/u/9/uJjydpBW82I
"Don’t trade spreads simply because they’re away from the mean, trade them as they return to the mean."
http://www.dynamichedge.com/2011/03/04/return-to-a-two-way-market/
This is not the weekend to take a chance staying long.
1375, is what the major 18's sez :)
Yeah, feels like the old bull has one more thrust left in him. We would rather take shots long SPY and then turn and short EEM on the way back.
This is not the weekend to take a chance staying long.
Not large, anyway. But Monday has no data, so it is MOMO unless it is MUAMMAR. The less MUAMMAR we have the more MOMO.
Lefty never stays long long....
I got some good pics I'll post Monday...
AFIA2BNL
I'm wondering if the whole "MOMO" is about to go the way of "1st Day".
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/The-5-Dumbest-Things-on-Wall-tsmf-3138295227.html
They are doing everything they can to keep the SPX from trading into the gap from Thursday. It's gotten close but no trades below 1312.37 (30 min chart).
Ra
I want that to happen, I want to see a rotation out of trash and commodity stocks into dividends as we switch from growth to value, but I don't think we are there yet. Our models call for a last spike in rates, oil and gold, before Bucky rallies and takes the EMs down.
At this point the smart money will be piling into US fixed income and Brazilian govies. The bugs will take it in the rear first, and the miners, and the EMs will be next. SPX follows later as the dumb money yet again plays "AM I DIVERSIFIED?" and then tries to get into bonds.
The GRINDER will be the trade of Q2. A slow and painful SAUSAGE MAKER where money gets squeezed out of rareearths.com and iSpend into the much maligned dividend payers - utilities, pharma, and the "rate sensitive" mortgage REITs.
1. Electric Cars Lose More Charge
Consumer Reports released its 2011 car buying issue this week and among the big headlines was the decision to not recommend General Motors' Chevy Volt. In fact, Consumer Reports advised car buyers to buy the $23,000 Toyota Prius over the $40,000 Volt.
"We would have really liked to have loved it," David Champion, director of Consumer Reports auto test center told Reuters this week, adding, "It was fun to drive and the ride quality was pretty good. But when you look at the finances, for us it doesn't make any sense."
...From Karen's 2:02 post. Yes CV, you can buy the same car BinT owns, drive all week long, fill it up, and still buy a foot long Subway sub.
..GM may have bet the house on filling an inside straight...
if indu takes out 11983..
Did EURUSD kiss 1.40 today?
i love seeing where the Bernank's beloved RISK ON profit money is running with RISK OFF..
Higher Oil, Bank Downgrades Drag Wall Street Lower- Reuters
...Yes brothers and sisters, it is true. The outlook for GS has caused the entire equity universe to come unhinged.
...This is going to harder than Lefty asking a cop's daughter to go watch the submarine races...
Douglas Kass
i am covering half of my trading short rrentals from yesterday - for modest gains. very modest!!
52 seconds ago
NicTrades Nicola
$SPX 4hr chart - another test of 1300 http://stock.ly/20ppqo
WI Governor to layoff 1500 unless Democrats return to state.
YGBFKM
DougKass Douglas Kass
covering the rest of m trading short rentals now
54 seconds ago
Interesting relative valuation article. We think New Zealand equities are a great buy here, Japan we would be all over after we get through this burst of DGDF and get some kind of global correction.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/256153-country-etf-valuations-and-momentum-japan-and-new-zealand-look-interesting?source=yahoo
$vix says NO FEAR
Note how lousy China and India are in the table, along with a lot of their emerging markup brethren. Lousy valuation, low yield, and high inflation plus technical weakness in the charts... mmm delicious....
Allstate Sues Credit Suisse on MBS - (zacks) http://yhoo.it/hOG8ck
Crude > $104 and VIX about 20?
This is not a bearish set-up.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/everything-now-correlated-exclusively-fed-balance-sheet
AFIA:
You really play ZROZ? The liquidity is terrible.
Also, I would think that, because the portfolio is composed of zeros, it would have a higher vol than coupon trusts. But, it looks to me like TLT is more volatile.
It seems like a platypus, of sorts.
BTW, I don't like the Euro melt-up (especially because it makes me look like and idiot for trimming my euro exposure to nothing last Thursday). The currency and credit over there have been on a bit of a tear lately.
I think there are going to be a lot of tears when that run comes to a close.
Looks like ZROZ has higher highs and lower lows..isn't that what you want?
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=ZROZ+Interactive#chart5:symbol=zroz;range=2y;compare=tbt+tlt;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
ZROZ is a way of getting a little more bang for the buck without using leverage, e.g. UBT. One experiments from time to time.
EURUSD does seem to be breathing rarefied air and it's hard to believe that Euro credit issues are being ignored while the dollar has spent Q1 at Guantanamo Bay being water-boarded. We have ZERO exposure to European anything, we hate it almost as much as we hate China. There really do seem to be big problems in European banks and one morning it is all going to blow sky high.
http://politics.blogs.foxnews.com/2011/03/04/donald-trump-iowa?test=latestnews
Donald Trump To Iowa
...please no, please, please, no...no....no....
A new home being built for Blanky and St Jamie. When the revolution comes.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-04/california-s-cadillac-death-row-complex-target-in-budget-talks.html
I see the dip buyers are still hanging around.
Donald Trump To Iowa
...please no, please, please, no...no....no....
No possibility of a frequently bankrupt property tycoon being elected POTUS. NO chance, I mean, it's not like we ever elected B-movie actors, recovering alcoholic draft-dodgers or community organizers?
Oh, wait....
I see the dip buyers are still hanging around.
Or the short coverers. I am here, of course.
Charlie Sheen is getting close to 1.6 million followers.. his profile reads:
Born Small... Now Huge... Winning... Bring it..! (unemployed winner...)
ZH just retweeted him so i linked in.. he's only made 23 tweets but just made it to the most followers gained in a 24hr period i guess..
104.40
...should be good for another 12-15 cents by Sunday...
Ring ring.
Yes. Hello.
Silver is up over 3.5%
Yeah, and?
What are you going to part with to make margin?
I call you later.
No need. Joey, Frank, Tommy and Lil Mike are already on the way...
Ring ring.
Dimon.
Jamie, Blythe here.
I told you not to call me here.
We are at work.
Oh, yes.
We have a problem.
Are you up the duff?
No. Silver is up again.
F*ck.
What are we going to do?
Fire you.
Can't we have another Deep Dive?
....
Jamie?
OK, OK, after the close.
You won't regret this. I'll wear the silver dress.
"What are we going to do?
Fire you."
LMAO
The desperate move to not close at the lows (and keep the gap safe) is quite amusing. Watching TICK levels explode higher during the last few minutes. Now you folks know what level I'm interested in as I see it get crushed. But there are still nine minutes left.
I Spy a Cup and Handle pattern on the 60min CL chart. Targets 110.50
We just did a bit more SPY. It's only a swing trade, with TBT.
Bear suit is still on.
We fancy selling the crap out of EEM next week.
The twenty minutes from hell bullish pattern. I think that was to make sure the SPX didn't close below EMA(20) or SMA(20). Bastids.
A classic from nakedcapitalism
kevin de bruxelles says:
March 4, 2011 at 1:16 pm
American politics for dummies:
Republicans
Rhetoric: Love the rich, f*ck the rest
Actions: Love the rich, f*ck the rest.
Democrats
Rhetoric: Kind of like the poor and some of the rest, f*ck the rich
Actions: Love the rich, f*ck the rest.
@4.12
I rarely even read Naked Capitalism any more.
I watched a new commercial building being put up in my neck of the woods the last couple of weeks. Not a V6 or hybrid in sight. All V8's. Cement mixer. Asphalt trucks. Electronic glass doors not delivered by rickshaw, etc.
104.58....
Crude Oil 104.61 +2.70 +2.65
Natural Gas 3.803 +0.025 +0.66
Corn 728.00 -8.75 -1.19
Soybeans 1414.0 +2.0 +0.14
30yr Bond 119.25000 +0.87500 +0.74
10yr Note 118.625000 +0.796875 +0.68
NY Gold 1428.6 +12.2 +0.86
NY Silver 35.510 +1.183 +3.46
The Bond Report 3.4.11
Yesterday's big sell-off was reversed. The 2y had touched 80 bps and promptly reversed and scooted down to 67 bps. For THE FUN.
Munis are weak again and we wouldn't go there if they were wearing a short dress and carrying a plate of chocolate chip cookies.
TIPS, MBS and EM bonds were all reasonably strong today. The charts for TLT are becoming a lot more constructive, as I am sure AR will demonstrate. Auctions ahead, so supply will lead to some weakness in 10y and 30y most likely. If Gaddafi pops his clogs or goes on a one way camel ride into the Sahara, the relief rally will hit Treasuries hard.
Corpies: LQD 0.35%; AGG 0.28%; JNK -0.32%; HYG -0.21%
Govies: TLT 0.78%; IEI 0.57%; TIP 0.61%
Munis: IQI -1.10%; MUB -0.33%
Mortgages: MBB 0.28%
Specialty: ZROZ 0.27%; TBT -1.58%; EMB 0.50%
We stayed hedged in fixed income and we added some SPY. Crude is not in short supply, this spike is going to end, and when it does investors are going to BUY BUY BUY stocks, making it a great time to SELL SELL SELL. We still don't see a 4% 10y, not that we wouldn't love it. The weaker the auctions the better this week, we will be buying and would love to see a 3.65% 10y or a 4.75% 30y for example.
at least corn went down...BTW Mish has posted an interesting article this afternoon on energy prices...
Of course, before Arthur Burns it was indeed called the WAGE/price spiral for inflation to ignite...
..Double dating tonight...(Lefty, that's two guys go out with a girl apiece....)
...later.
Bruce,
ROR.
There is NO supply shock in oil. We are absolutely awash with the stuff. Even Europe isn't having a supply shock. This is all speculation, just like everything else that has happened since we became a command and control economy.
Of course this has been a godsend for THE BEN BERNANK, as he has been gifted a nice little PPI/CPI spike without even having to do another injection of liquidity.
(......................................)
"AFIA said...
There is NO supply shock in oil. We are absolutely awash with the stuff. Even Europe isn't having a supply shock. This is all speculation, just like everything else that has happened since we became a command and control economy."
~~~~~~~~~~~
Well, the Brent curve is in backwardation and the WTI curve has been strengthening for a few weeks now. Today, Sep/Oct WTI flipped into backwardation.
So, we may be "awash" in oil, but the market structure is not suggesting that right now...
Andy,
Don't go all Krugman on us !
There is nothing sacred about the crude oil futures market. It isn't very large and can be gamed very easily just like any other small market.
They are drilling it, they are shipping it, and they are storing it. There is an absolute shedload of oil. Crude would be trading at about $70 or less without QE2, and without speculator leverage.
"Market structure" used to reflect supply and demand, but for years has been influenced by much higher leverage and by a great big fire-hose of liquidity being sprayed by THE BEN BERNANK.
God forbid we had real shortages under these conditions.....
Not that I am shorting it, but I don't expect this to last.
new thread
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