TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Corner 3.2.11

Morning Corner 3.2.11

Swiss Franc (weekly info)
new high 1.0774
trend=up
high= 1.0774
rev= 1.0064; mid= 1.0419

I guess we can see where some of the money is going for safety. Because it's not the dollar or it would have been much higher after yesterdays sell off. This and commodities are the new safe havens (for now).

TED Spread (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=up
high= 0.2220
rev= 0.1490; mid= 0.1855

It's actually turning down. Really??? I want what they're smoking!

219 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 1 – 200 of 219 Newer› Newest»

Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_oil_crisis

1973 oil crisis

Macroeconomic effects

The 1973 oil crisis was a major factor in Japan's economy shifting from oil-intensive industries, and resulted in huge Japanese investments in industries such as electronics. The Japanese auto makers also took advantage of this embargo. After they realized what fuel costs were in the United States, they started producing small, more fuel efficient models, which began selling as an alternative to "gas-guzzling" American vehicles of the time. This triggered a drop in American auto sales that lasted into the 1980s.

The Western nations' central banks decided to sharply cut interest rates to encourage growth, deciding that inflation was a secondary concern. Although this was the orthodox macroeconomic prescription at the time, the resulting stagflation surprised economists and central bankers, and the policy is now considered by some to have deepened and lengthened the adverse effects of the embargo.

...Considerably different situation today, however, grain and other commodities weren't affected initially. This run-up in food costs is interesting.....; March 2, 2011 at 7:04 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/SampP-warns-of-downgrades-on-apf-3663732891.html?x=0&.v=2

S&P warns of downgrades on Portugal and Greece

S&P maintains ratings on Portugal and Greece but warns of downgrades within two months; March 2, 2011 at 7:06 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-02/european-inflation-accelerates-more-than-forecast-on-soaring-energy-costs.html

"European producer-price inflation accelerated more than economists forecast in January, as soaring energy costs added to the European Central Bank’s concerns that inflationary pressures are building.

Factory-gate prices in the euro region jumped 6.1 percent from a year earlier, after increasing 5.3 percent in December, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. That’s the fastest since September 2008 and above the 5.7 percent gain forecast by economists, according to the median of 16 estimates in a Bloomberg survey. January prices rose 1.5 percent from December."; March 2, 2011 at 7:07 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Actually the moves by Bernanke and Greenspan remind me of Arthur Burns in the mid and late 70's. I don't think lowering and raising rates by the Fed is necessarily a mistake, but carrying rates to the lows we've seen in the last decade and forcing them to stay that low is a mistake. Kind of a Keynesian "interest rate policy" higher in good times and lower in bad, but in practice like government spending, not true to the theory but carried to excess....; March 2, 2011 at 7:15 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://money.cnn.com/POLLSERVER/results/55030.html

26000 votes this morning...predictive?; March 2, 2011 at 7:30 AM
AmenRa said...: ADP +217k

Futures: "Whatever". Back to the sell off.; March 2, 2011 at 8:23 AM
AmenRa said...: Bruce

They should take the vote again in a month. That 40% may jump to >50%.; March 2, 2011 at 8:25 AM
ben22 said...: @CV,

This is especially for you:

http://www.egmcartech.com/2011/03/01/consumer-reports-says-chevrolet-volt-doesnt-really-make-a-lot-of-sense/; March 2, 2011 at 8:29 AM
CV said...: @ben (8:29)

One of these days y'all are going to figure out that CV isn't as nutty as he appears to be...

...on paper :-P

---

The VOLT is a glorified golf cart... I'd rather have the golf cart...; March 2, 2011 at 8:36 AM
CV said...: The "other" thing that not even "Consumer Reports" isn't even figuring into the equation is how much efficiency is LOST in a low horesepower vehicle simply by loading it down...

Which is a behavior that people tend to do, carrying an extra passenger or two, stuff, groceries, whatevver...

Just ask the golfing 4-some that has one cart driver (for two), and 2 walkers, who have to make the trek either UP A HILL, or on a long separation from green to next tee box...

As soon as the other two jump on the back, things significantly change (battery life)... And that's only talking distances of a few hundred yards...; March 2, 2011 at 8:40 AM
CV said...: Golf course operators will tell you that "gas powered" carts (while noisier), are much better horses than the plug in battery ones...

Obama (who basically only plays golf - and then attends a meeting once in awhile), ought to know this...; March 2, 2011 at 8:43 AM
Jennifer said...: CV -- in Sept '09 my husband and I rented a go car in San Fran. If you don't know what they are -- http://www.gocartours.com/sanfrancisco.html

they are little 2 person "cars" built on a motorcycle frame with an open roof. On several particularly steep hills (this was San Fran) I had to get out and walk while he continued to drive the "car" up the hill. Mortifying. This is what I think of when I think of the Volt.; March 2, 2011 at 8:44 AM
Jennifer said...: Yesterday's EOD long trade is looking like a bad decision as crude goes up, up, and away.; March 2, 2011 at 8:45 AM
CV said...: @Jennifer

Good visual there...

That's exactly what I'm trying to express...

But that's the problem with policymakers today... They try to solve all problems ON PAPER...

What happens when you try to run a world ON PAPER???

Answer: You get a lot of PAPER!!! (which is fun to trade, I suppose)... :-); March 2, 2011 at 8:51 AM
karen said...: Bill Gross's new Investment Outlook, "Two-Bits, Four-Bits, Six-Bits, a Dollar," is now available. http://bit.ly/e9d8FY

oh, good morning, not! wake me if crude surpasses 103.50.. TIA; March 2, 2011 at 8:54 AM
karen said...: USD breakdown today..

New blog post: Fed's Hoenig: Fed is monetizing debt http://www.forexlive.com/170435/all/feds-hoenig-fed-is-monetizing-debt; March 2, 2011 at 8:58 AM
CV said...: @karen

Hoenig better steer clear of book repositories for the time being...; March 2, 2011 at 9:01 AM
karen said...: http://www.businessinsider.com/rajat-gupta-galleon-office-after-rajaratnam-meeting-you-idiot-2011-3

Here's What A Former Analyst Says Happened At The Galleon Office After Rajaratnam Heard Goldman's Numbers; March 2, 2011 at 9:04 AM
karen said...: Regulators Push 20% Down Payments on Homes http://on.wsj.com/dJLtJ3; March 2, 2011 at 9:12 AM
karen said...: Art Cashin On The Saudi Connection To Tuesday's Big Market Plunge http://read.bi/eb1Egz; March 2, 2011 at 9:14 AM
CV said...: Well whatever the reason...

NO FLIGHT TO SAFETY (DOLLAR) seems to be occurring...; March 2, 2011 at 9:20 AM
karen said...: Bill Gross: Many critics, though, including yours truly, would wonder whether Quantitative Easing policies actually heal, as opposed to cover up, symptoms of an unhealthy economy. They might at the same time ask simplistically whether it is possible to cure a debt crisis with more debt.; March 2, 2011 at 9:27 AM
CV said...: Look - I don't want to be antagonistic (about the dollar)... But it should be CLEAR (for anyone who wants to look ahead a year or two) what is happening...

Sure, the dollar will find some level (somewhere probably between here and 70), and most likely bounce hard off of that...

But I believe that reversal will be VERY short lived... Just enough time to make some quick profits...

Hell - all this "Hoenig" getting his name in the paper often recently, will probably be used as the propaganda tool to make that reversal happen... They'll make it seem like a new HAWK is coming in...

It won't happen, and guess what - next thing you know QE3 gets unveiled... Of course, that gets us through 2011 (after a crash & reset)...

But then all hell breaks loose in 2012 as we gear up for a new Presidential Election cycle (just like 2008)...

Management by crisis...; March 2, 2011 at 9:28 AM
karen said...: wow! aussie weaker than i expected this morning.. bears watching..; March 2, 2011 at 9:32 AM
karen said...: "America used 10 billion brick a year in 2006 vs. 3 bln today. I'm buying the 9th largest brick producer" Warren Buffett; March 2, 2011 at 9:34 AM
karen said...: look at $bkx.. monetize that Bernanke..; March 2, 2011 at 9:35 AM
spoonman said...: We are back in our puts, at only a modestly higher price.; March 2, 2011 at 9:39 AM
AmenRa said...: karen

Bears watching or bears watching?; March 2, 2011 at 9:39 AM
ben22 said...: CV,

I'm with you, the Volt seems bad all around and so it's only logical that the government would be passing out money for people to buy them.; March 2, 2011 at 9:40 AM
spoonman said...: We may yet regret it, but they're April dated and we believe there is more downside left; March 2, 2011 at 9:41 AM
AmenRa said...: Those who bought calls at the close hoping for a bounce better cover soon.; March 2, 2011 at 9:45 AM
karen said...: BergenCapital Mike Bergen
Rumors Circulate that Procter & Gamble Co. $PG will acquire Clorox Corporation $CLX at $85.00 a share; March 2, 2011 at 9:48 AM
karen said...: lulu.. a buy or a sell? LOL; March 2, 2011 at 9:49 AM
ben22 said...: Spoon,

good luck man, stay ninja. I believe we are in an X wave and the rally isn't entirely over. If that's the case I thought odds would favor the bulls, at least today:

http://lh4.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/TW2nKvnAE9I/AAAAAAAAJ-I/k91yvofOExM/s1600-h/SPYShortTerm%5B2%5D.png

charts from Cobra's site.; March 2, 2011 at 9:49 AM
karen said...: is that a euro breakout??; March 2, 2011 at 9:49 AM
spoonman said...: b22,
Moved my stops to compensate for sitting out an extra .15. Not going to lose money on these. Still on high alert for sure...; March 2, 2011 at 9:52 AM
AmenRa said...: Will silver clear $35 today? Will Blythe cower in a corner? Will the dollar fall below $76.50? Will the bulls manage to create some type of rebound to show that they're not impotent? These and other questions will be answered on this episode of The Bernank Zone.; March 2, 2011 at 9:55 AM
AFIA said...: EURUSD. Ugh.

when this oil surge breaks, a huge relief rally in Bucky and equities.
not so good for euro, gold and silver.; March 2, 2011 at 9:55 AM
I-Man said...: On the Dow futes, YM, watch 12130 and 12150 for overhead resistance...

Should not be able to take those out.

If longs are really lucky, they will get an intraday spike to 12175, but I doubt it.; March 2, 2011 at 9:57 AM
ben22 said...: Spoon,

you might just suffer for a day or two, I don't believe this correction is over either, so if you have April's I still think you'll find a time to exit with a profit. I'm looking to sell any bounce over the next few days.

Where the bearish engulfing falls in the wave structure matters, imo, notice back in November in wave Y's correction it was only a one day bounce after the engulfing candle and then further downside for another week.; March 2, 2011 at 9:59 AM
karen said...: http://247wallst.com/2011/03/02/arkansas-earthquakes-could-be-result-of-shale-gas-production-swn-chk-bhp/; March 2, 2011 at 10:00 AM
karen said...: AR, you are hilarious today..; March 2, 2011 at 10:03 AM
karen said...: HYG:LQD.. bears watching : ); March 2, 2011 at 10:09 AM
ben22 said...: rejection at the 23.6% there of yesterdays move.....bulls need to break through that.; March 2, 2011 at 10:12 AM
karen said...: Insanity all around! New blog post: Let's get to more pressing matters... http://www.forexlive.com/170457/all/lets-get-to-more-pressing-matters; March 2, 2011 at 10:17 AM
karen said...: According to Billionaire Julian Robertson, Bernanke Is Santa Claus And We're All Celebrating Denial http://read.bi/gCX4W9; March 2, 2011 at 10:20 AM
karen said...: http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/3/2/saudi-stocks-down-13-days-in-a-row.html; March 2, 2011 at 10:22 AM
AmenRa said...: ben22

A close below yesterdays midpoint is a failure by the bulls to wrest control from the bears. They will keep trying until they can't. My .02; March 2, 2011 at 10:23 AM
karen said...: This person did not care for Bill Gross's Outlook, while I thot it was one of his best ever..

WSJ MarketBeat
Bill Gross: His Most Obnoxious Note Ever!: Where should we start? Bond king -- or former bond king? -- Bill ... http://on.wsj.com/fOPfa7; March 2, 2011 at 10:29 AM
ben22 said...: Thanks Ra. might be a tiny descending triangle forming right now...hard to tell, too short a time period for me, either that or a third try here at the 23.6; March 2, 2011 at 10:35 AM
CV said...: "arkansas-earthquakes-could-be-result-of-shale-gas-production-swn-chk-bhp/"

---

So the BRUCE IN TENNESSEE doing a tapdance theory is out?; March 2, 2011 at 10:36 AM
karen said...: a good one: http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2011/03/the-fed-on-commodity-inflation-what-me-worry.html; March 2, 2011 at 10:36 AM
ben22 said...: there you go bulls....next pause around 1314.31 ish....? ???; March 2, 2011 at 10:37 AM
karen said...: http://www.forexlive.com/170474/all/dxy-trendline-in-view; March 2, 2011 at 10:39 AM
CV said...: @ben

There's no "ish's" in trading!; March 2, 2011 at 10:49 AM
AmenRa said...: Hmmm maybe I should have said will the dollar test $76.00 today?; March 2, 2011 at 10:50 AM
karen said...: for a contemplative moment:

http://www.infowars.com/the-perfidy-of-government-evidence-v-denial/; March 2, 2011 at 10:51 AM
CV said...: Ron Paul "givin it to" ther Bernank right now on CNBS; March 2, 2011 at 10:51 AM
ben22 said...: CV,

on a one day movement it's ok to be off a few decimals, I won't be too hard on anyone for that, lol.; March 2, 2011 at 10:52 AM
AmenRa said...: Karen

Was that the best the WSJ Marketbeat could do? Complain about his parables? What a wasted few minutes.; March 2, 2011 at 10:53 AM
I-Man said...: Its a real mind trip to have such a bearish short term view, but still be raking in gains on the long side...

Mental detachment.; March 2, 2011 at 10:53 AM
AmenRa said...: Karen

Nothing against you. The author just sounded like he got his panties in a bunch.; March 2, 2011 at 10:58 AM
karen said...: Keith McCullough
Bernank LIVE: I get that 44M people are on food stamps; if they didnt buy the stock market, I guess thats too damn bad; March 2, 2011 at 10:58 AM
karen said...: AR, I agree with you.. absurd analysis.. i keep going back to see if anyone intelligent comments.. but it doesn't deserve any commentary.; March 2, 2011 at 11:00 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Sorry I'm late...Tue and Wed are formal scalpel days...

No tap dancing...I'm a Chubby Checker fan, myself..; March 2, 2011 at 11:09 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Let's ponder this a moment..Any chance that some of these new low wage jobs are lost because the small business owner has to choose between higher energy prices and commodity prices and the low wage earner?...just pondering..; March 2, 2011 at 11:13 AM
bob said...: EUR

Ouch...AT least we have a descending trend line from 11 2009 to watch for. Right now at about 13980; March 2, 2011 at 11:15 AM
AFIA said...: EUR.... eugh!; March 2, 2011 at 11:24 AM
CV said...: In the last half hour on CNBS:

Bernanke (quote): I don't believe the rise in commodity prices are a dollar phenomenon"

---

LIESMAN: "I don't think there will be a QE3"

---

TRISH REGAN: "This high crude prices are putting a crimp into the stock rally"

---

Plus - Maxine Waters following Ron Paul in the Congressional hearing...

---

Effing Banana republic!; March 2, 2011 at 11:24 AM
AFIA said...: Any chance that some of these new low wage jobs are lost because the small business owner has to choose between higher energy prices and commodity prices and the low wage earner?

Not to mention no pricing power, store rents being inflated by the BERNANK and other delights. It's a shit time to be a small biz.; March 2, 2011 at 11:25 AM
karen said...: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-2010-wasnt-a-turnaround-year-for-banking-2011-03-02; March 2, 2011 at 11:26 AM
CV said...: The Matrix: "First thing you have to understand is THERE IS NO SPOON"

To CNBS: "First thing you have to understand is THERE IS NO RECOVERY"; March 2, 2011 at 11:28 AM
Jennifer said...: ES is testing VWAP hereat 1308 so break or bounce time.; March 2, 2011 at 11:31 AM
karen said...: You may remember the old Persian saying, "'There is danger for him who taketh the tiger cub, and danger also for whoso snatches a delusion from a woman.'"

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogmar11/delusions3-11.html; March 2, 2011 at 11:43 AM
Jennifer said...: I will not overtrade. I will not overtrade. I will not overtrade.; March 2, 2011 at 11:47 AM
AFIA said...: Oh. This is GOOD. This is it in a nutshell. This is VERY GOOD.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/democracy-action; March 2, 2011 at 11:50 AM
spoonman said...: Jennifer: do not overtrade. Trade only the correct amount. Take it from an expert.; March 2, 2011 at 11:50 AM
spoonman said...: An expert overtrader, that is...; March 2, 2011 at 11:51 AM
Jennifer said...: Its not the position size, its the churn that I have a hard time controlling. In an effort to give myself 10 years worth of trading experience in 2, I've made plenty of mistakes.; March 2, 2011 at 11:54 AM
karen said...: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704288304576170974226083178.html?mod=WSJ_hp_mostpop_read

Why Koch Industries Is Speaking Out
Crony capitalism and bloated government prevent entrepreneurs from producing the products and services that make people's lives better.; March 2, 2011 at 11:55 AM
I-Man said...: JAH, it feels good to short WITH the trend...; March 2, 2011 at 11:56 AM
AFIA said...: We added to our bond hedge.

"In an effort to give myself 10 years worth of trading experience in 2, I've made plenty of mistakes."

These 2 have been worth 10 in experience, IMHO, and these three have been worth a lifetime. ROR.; March 2, 2011 at 11:56 AM
I-Man said...: Jenn,

Its either your stops are too tight, or your entries are not good enough.

Thats always been my problem.; March 2, 2011 at 11:57 AM
AFIA said...: We are not short and if we could we would get longer. We might get longer at the close.

A massive relief rally in stocks and the dollar, and a mini-clavadista in Treasuries and commodities is out there. If you have the patience.

C'mon Ghaddafi, just off yourself already.; March 2, 2011 at 11:58 AM
AFIA said...: The author of that WSJ op-ed is a Koch Sucker.; March 2, 2011 at 11:59 AM
AFIA said...: It's the way I tell 'em....; March 2, 2011 at 12:00 PM
Jennifer said...: Anyone have that weird SPY tick? goes down to 130.35. Pointing the way?; March 2, 2011 at 12:03 PM
AmenRa said...: BKX & XLF down (why they were higher is an unknown), gold breaking 1440, silver about to break 35, dollar barely holding on to 76.60.; March 2, 2011 at 12:04 PM
Jennifer said...: I-Man - thanks, its more a failure to stick with the plan. I get a little emotional sometimes :-); March 2, 2011 at 12:05 PM
Anonymous said...: LB,

This may not interest you but the Irish just whopped English asses in the cricket WC. :-)

Prashant; March 2, 2011 at 12:06 PM
I-Man said...: I am also an expert overtrader.

:); March 2, 2011 at 12:12 PM
AFIA said...: Thank you, kindly, Prashant. :-)

That had not escaped me.
Paddy Cricket is not to be trifled with these days.

Our lads need to remember.
CATCHES WIN MATCHES.; March 2, 2011 at 12:16 PM
AmenRa said...: WTI at 102 and rising. This will not end well.; March 2, 2011 at 12:23 PM
karen said...: Another's* opinion: I'm sure Mr. Gross is a smart guy. But statements like that just make him sound a tad foolish.

*Vice President in the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

http://andolfatto.blogspot.com/2011/03/us-inflation-and-inflation-expectations.html; March 2, 2011 at 12:24 PM
karen said...: "So when the Fed is purchasing longer dated Treasuries, what is it doing? It is selling zero-interest bills for (slightly) positive-interest bills."

But where is the Fed getting ther zero-interest bills? out of thin air?; March 2, 2011 at 12:26 PM
Isaac Newton said...: WTI at 102 and rising. This will not end well.

I have a Law that describes this.; March 2, 2011 at 12:27 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: "Ah, my little darling, it is love at first sight, is it not, no?"

Pepe Le Pew discribing his infatuation with ze oil...

Affaire d'amour? Affaire de coeur? Je ne sais quoi ... je vive en espoir. Mmmm m mm ... un smella vous finez; March 2, 2011 at 12:31 PM
Jennifer said...: I hate to go, but I must. Good luck all -- what a morning!; March 2, 2011 at 12:31 PM
karen said...: “A lot of national economies are still on performance-enhancing drugs,” said Norbert Reithofer, the chief executive of Bayerische Motoren Werke, referring to economic and car-buying stimulus programs. “It will be interesting to see what happens when the dope gets taken away.”

Even if the overall economic trend remained positive for carmakers, executives at Geneva said, they would have to contend with shocks and setbacks. “We have to expect more ups and downs,” Mr. Reithofer said in an interview.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/02/automobiles/autoshow/02geneva-auto-show.html?_r=1; March 2, 2011 at 12:35 PM
karen said...: Email from a local shop:

WE'D LIKE TO THANK YOU FOR YOUR CONTINUED SUPPORT!
It is not easy these days to keep a small retail store like ERBA going...

We want to thank you for your years of support and also hope you will continue to SHOP LOCAL- Downtown San Clemente to keep little quaint boutiques and small resturants open for your pleasure.

Remember...when you buy our Fabulous jewelry or great gifts at ERBA, 78% of that money goes directly back into your OWN Community. Shop the big guys, it goes to their Corporate headquarters...somewhere else.; March 2, 2011 at 12:38 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.spokesman.com/blogs/commcomm/tags/the-bulli-vw-van/

An electric VW Hippy Van for the masses….

"Named the Bulli, according to its manufacturers, it is capable of traveling up to 186.4 miles on a single battery charge and has a top speed of 87 miles per hour, although nothing is implied about how well it will climb tall hills."; March 2, 2011 at 12:47 PM
AFIA said...: If Ghaddafi pops his clogs, crude loses $10 in an hour and we will have all kinds of fun. Bonds, PMs and EURUSD are all in rarefied territory here.; March 2, 2011 at 12:47 PM
Anonymous said...: I predict a Wal-Mart will be torched at some point, once the populace wakes up to the Big Business and Banker MO.

But then there will be problems, nowhere to get Cheetos and Luvs. It's happened before, ask any Korean storekeeper in LA.; March 2, 2011 at 12:49 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: The DOW today looks like the Zippin Pippin at the Texas State Fair...; March 2, 2011 at 12:51 PM
karen said...: Financial Times
Portugal resists help: The crisis in the euro has been overshadowed of late by the fighting in Libya and the ... http://on.ft.com/dUh4Q1; March 2, 2011 at 12:52 PM
karen said...: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/how-did-gaddafi-bypass-us-anti-money-laundering-rules-bank-goldman-and-jpmorgan; March 2, 2011 at 12:57 PM
ben22 said...: anyone ever look at ticker QLIK?

any thoughts?; March 2, 2011 at 12:58 PM
I-Man said...: Anyone up for a cliff dive?; March 2, 2011 at 12:59 PM
ben22 said...: would also seem a little minnie inverse H&S/Kilroy played out on the S&P cash. Head at peak of the head was just after noon.; March 2, 2011 at 1:00 PM
karen said...: ben, despite the bullish look to the daily chart, the weekly looks weak.. i purposely did not look up the company or try to guess their business from a quick glance at the name.; March 2, 2011 at 1:02 PM
karen said...: I-Man, it is definitely possible.. and I don't rule it out.. back to the one trade with everything selling off to lock in these fantastical profits before they disappear in the mirage they sprung from int the Libyan desert.; March 2, 2011 at 1:05 PM
Anonymous said...: Steve Jobs looks like he's going to die.; March 2, 2011 at 1:08 PM
I-Man said...: We might be surprised by the strength of this one...; March 2, 2011 at 1:09 PM
karen said...: Then again, Jobs is on stage showing off the new Ipad2!; March 2, 2011 at 1:12 PM
AFIA said...: Last night's cheeky equity long is holding up well so far.
Not brave enough for a shot at shorting crude or gold, yen or Euro.

But it's coming.

An initial relief rally will carry all stocks. After that, the energy complex, miners and emerging markets will be sold.; March 2, 2011 at 1:12 PM
Bucky the Talking Currency said...: Nice Swissy chart, Ra.
Slick guy, always wearing a fancy watch.
Totally cuckoo, though.

What if we get 390k claims and +200k NFP.
Do you think anyone would buy me then?; March 2, 2011 at 1:18 PM
karen said...: CreateCapital Scott Bleier
WTF? TICK just went from +850 to -980 very quickly before flattening. More sell programs awaiting...; March 2, 2011 at 1:18 PM
ben22 said...: Karen,

thanks, they have an interesting product, but I'm no fundie analyst.; March 2, 2011 at 1:20 PM
AmenRa said...: So far the SPX is a bullish thrusting and not confirming the bearish engulfing. But the day isn't over.; March 2, 2011 at 1:22 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: the average stock hold time is probably down to 20 seconds today..; March 2, 2011 at 1:24 PM
AFIA said...: The I -

We are up 6.5% on the year so far.
Trading/hedging has been half the gains.

Wish someone would come grab some of my NZT....; March 2, 2011 at 1:32 PM
AFIA said...: Light sweet has gone vertical.

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-3Kh43nSx1eg/TW53VoUGvAI/AAAAAAAAB7c/tk3Z1eMYsrM/s1600/lls120.png

Still, we all know how this ends. Right, Blanky?; March 2, 2011 at 1:34 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-02/bernanke-doesn-t-rule-out-more-bond-buying-by-fed-to-aid-economic-recovery.html

Bernanke Doesn't Rule Out More Bond Buying by Fed to Aid Economic Recovery

...Yes, anticlimactic is an economic word....; March 2, 2011 at 1:34 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: “We’re looking very closely at inflation both in terms of too low and too high,” Bernanke said during the second day of semiannual testimony on monetary policy. “I want to be sure that you understand that I am very attentive to inflation and potential risks for inflation. That will certainly be a major consideration as we look to determine how to manage this policy.”

...Was it as long ago as, er, yesterday that he felt inflation was not going to be a problem? Must of had a bad dream last night...; March 2, 2011 at 1:37 PM
bob said...: FWIW-

Watching ZB and JPY late last night. I think that some JPY is interested in ZB, from the correlation.; March 2, 2011 at 1:37 PM
Lord Blankfiend said...: As we used to say at J ARON, light and sweet on the way up, much heavier on the way down. We make money on both trips.; March 2, 2011 at 1:37 PM
I-Man said...: Nice work, AFIA...

I hate to fade you here, but gotta do what the I must do.

My dip buying stopped yesterday, until we see new highs... I will be fading rips.

This sucker could fall apart in a tick.; March 2, 2011 at 1:38 PM
I-Man said...: Aside from the dip I bought this morning, LOL...

Guess its hard to shake habits.

:); March 2, 2011 at 1:39 PM
AFIA said...: JPYUSD trades with US real rates. So that has been strong as the 2y yield has fallen. JPY is a safety trade in Asia. The correlation between JPY and the long bond is most obvious when the YC is maximally steep as the long bond just follows the short end around.; March 2, 2011 at 1:40 PM
I-Man said...: When we couldnt even get up to 12130 which was modest resistance, it sealed the deal for I-Man...

Weaker than expected. Pfft...; March 2, 2011 at 1:41 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Whatever happened to TBNL? Amnestic?; March 2, 2011 at 1:42 PM
I-Man said...: But I suppose if we go triangle here in a few minutes, say at YM 12020, then we could make a higher print today.

I'd have to say, Doubtful.; March 2, 2011 at 1:42 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: "Inflation is likely to remain low through 2013, Bernanke, 57, a former Princeton University economist, said in Senate testimony yesterday."

..PWC; March 2, 2011 at 1:44 PM
Anonymous said...: "The value of my Capitol Hill townhome is likely to remain low through 2013, Bernanke, 57, a former Princeton University economist, said in Senate testimony yesterday."; March 2, 2011 at 1:46 PM
Tiny Tim said...: Don't even f*cking ask about my place in Mamaroneck.; March 2, 2011 at 1:47 PM
Anonymous said...: Sorry Tim. You will break even eventually.

In 2050.; March 2, 2011 at 1:48 PM
Anonymous said...: "The value of my testimony is likely to remain laughably low through 2013, Bernanke, 57, a former Princeton University economist, said in Senate testimony yesterday."; March 2, 2011 at 1:49 PM
Hunt Brothers said...: Do the "bugs" think that silver $35 has trading significance?; March 2, 2011 at 1:53 PM
AmenRa said...: AFIA2BNL

Best line from that piece "Democracy in Action":

"- they are outsourcing their labor and they can't wait for the day when American schools begin to turn out graduates who will live 8 to a room in a factory dormitory and work 12-hour shifts at $2 per hour. It's called "Putting America Back to Work""; March 2, 2011 at 1:54 PM
Bucky the Talking Currency said...: "The value of the dollar is likely to remain laughably low through my testimony, Bernanke, 57, a former Princeton University economist, said in Senate testimony yesterday."; March 2, 2011 at 1:54 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: The DOW has morphed into the dreaded "Dolly Parton" pattern...; March 2, 2011 at 1:55 PM
Anonymous said...: It's called "Putting America Back to Work""

Debtor's Prisons would work well for TPTB.
Koch Brothers would have been awesome Nazis, btw.; March 2, 2011 at 1:56 PM
AFIA said...: Higher low here, the I.

Ghaddafi Rally imminent.
Surely someone will off the old toad?; March 2, 2011 at 1:58 PM
karen said...: US warships enter Suez Canal on way to Libyan waters... http://drudge.tw/f0V5lm; March 2, 2011 at 1:58 PM
AmenRa said...: WTI is accelerating higher in it move over 102.; March 2, 2011 at 1:59 PM
Jennifer said...: Does anyone pay attention to the beige book anymore?; March 2, 2011 at 2:00 PM
Helicopter Ben said...: Does anyone pay attention to the beige book anymore?

Not unless it has PLAYBOY on the inside of it.; March 2, 2011 at 2:03 PM
Hef said...: Yes, I know, NOBODY reads it for the articles.; March 2, 2011 at 2:04 PM
Anonymous said...: Markets now leveraged to Ghaddafi's actuarial data.; March 2, 2011 at 2:04 PM
I-Man said...: Be careful, dog...; March 2, 2011 at 2:05 PM
AFIA said...: These would be good tweets. Karen might FOLLOW me.
Bliss.; March 2, 2011 at 2:05 PM
AFIA said...: Be careful, dog...

Playing the whole week's worth of economic data, dog.
Most of the L-wealth is socked away in fixed income.

So being long SPY/TBT to the jobs number is in effect A HEDGE.

Life is a trade. We are all hedge funds now.; March 2, 2011 at 2:07 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Computers seem not to be able to reach a firm conclusion today. Perhaps prunes would help...; March 2, 2011 at 2:10 PM
Jennifer said...: Life is a trade. We are all hedge funds now.

A couple of years ago, I remember reading Yves Smith (Naked Capitalism) saying "we're all long the real economy." This is why I trade in a nutshell.; March 2, 2011 at 2:11 PM
Formerly Known as Bud Fox said...: "Guess its hard to shake habits."

Habits are nothing. 7 gram rocks baby, that's how I roll. I just win. I'm not BiPolar, I'm BiWinning.; March 2, 2011 at 2:13 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Global-airlines-profits-seen-apf-702740368.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=

Global airlines profits seen hit by oil costs

"Geneva-based IATA said on Wednesday that it had downgraded its forecast for industry net profits to $8.6 billion from the $9.1 billion it had estimated in December. That's a sharp 46 percent drop on the $16 billion earned by the industry in 2010."

..but soon it will be time to buy Pam-Am again..no wait, TWA?; March 2, 2011 at 2:14 PM
Anonymous said...: We really like shorting EEM. Here's why:

Helps repatriate US$.
Reduces profits of the global outsourcing companies.
Reduces commodity prices everywhere.
Makes food more affordable to the poor in EMs.
F*cks over long leveraged specs.

All in all it's one of the nicest trades you can make.; March 2, 2011 at 2:16 PM
AFIA said...: EEM hit 46 and backed off AGAIN this morning.
That really seems to be a delicious level for day shorts.; March 2, 2011 at 2:18 PM
karen said...: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/merrills-harley-bassman-why-big-one-and-its-implications; March 2, 2011 at 2:20 PM
karen said...: EUR/USD Giving Ground
By Jamie Coleman || March 2, 2011 at 19:26 GMT

The dollar is seeing some short-covering late in the session. Like yesterday afternoon, it got no lift by a move to fresh session highs for oil. That seemed to unnerve traders holding long positions. We’ve dipped back to the 1.3850 area. Trailing stops are seen around 1.3840/45.; March 2, 2011 at 2:30 PM
ben22 said...: triangle, why do you torture us!

top line from 2/18 top, bottom line from 2/24 low; March 2, 2011 at 2:30 PM
AmenRa said...: Pushing silver back down to avoid margin calls.; March 2, 2011 at 2:35 PM
karen said...: Business Insider
.@dougkass Issues Big Apology For Having Been Too Bearish This Whole Time http://read.bi/fQ8iAG

BergenCapital Mike Bergen
Time to get really short RT @businessinsider: .@dougkass Issues Big Apology For Having Been Too Bearish This Whole Time; March 2, 2011 at 2:37 PM
Doug Kass said...: ROR; March 2, 2011 at 2:39 PM
Anonymous said...: TBT has its moments. This is probably one of them.
Markets showing Middle East Turmoil Fatigue?

Rally on, Garth.; March 2, 2011 at 2:41 PM
Anonymous said...: On the one hand, we are long.
On the other, if the market closes down, Karen's panties.

Life is cruel in its contradictions.; March 2, 2011 at 2:42 PM
ben22 said...: Karen,

props to Kass for writing that, that's my opinion.

I guess also, you could summarize by saying he's in the new normal camp? Lots of ups and downs, no clear direction, some months good, some months bad?; March 2, 2011 at 2:43 PM
Doug Kass said...: Self-sustaining recovery, my bottom.; March 2, 2011 at 2:46 PM
ben22 said...: oh, and to be clear, I don't care about his views, it's just not often you see a money manager put themself out there like that.

in the market game it's good to admit you screwed up, rather than blaming others; March 2, 2011 at 2:49 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: The DOW is now entering the extremely rare Dolly Parton plus one pattern!

...perhaps there will be an earthquake?; March 2, 2011 at 2:51 PM
ben22 said...: I don't know Bruce, that right side is a little droopy

it might be a Katie Holmes pattern you are seeing there....; March 2, 2011 at 2:54 PM
AmenRa said...: I see 10yr & 30yr yields have taken off.; March 2, 2011 at 2:55 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Implant deflation forming on the right side..; March 2, 2011 at 2:55 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Not that Dolly, uh, well you know. But if you live in country music country...Dolly didn't look like that when she started with Porter Wagner..a lot more room for her guitar, if you know what I mean..

(Don't worry, Lefty, I'll explain it later...); March 2, 2011 at 2:58 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: It is also resembling the "What in the hell kind of trading day is this?" pattern that is not quite so rare...; March 2, 2011 at 3:00 PM
Anonymous said...: The SPY/TBT combo is filling us with happiness.
Although there is that one cause for regret....; March 2, 2011 at 3:02 PM
Anonymous said...: Another good bond call. Someone will be unbearable later....; March 2, 2011 at 3:04 PM
karen said...: Bespoke
A Look at the Dow 30 Through Our Trading Range Screen http://goo.gl/UuhfN 5 overbought, 7 oversold. $XOM up most YTD, $MRK down the most; March 2, 2011 at 3:05 PM
karen said...: oh stop, if your spy is even in the money from yesterday..; March 2, 2011 at 3:09 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Computers do seem to like to buy stocks at the end of the trading day, for let's see, since August of 2009?

...Probably just random electronic text messages between GS's Big Blue and JPM's Big Blue...; March 2, 2011 at 3:18 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Feds-Bernanke-Budget-cuts-rb-4012298549.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=

Bernanke sees 200,000 hit to jobs from budget cuts

...There is one in particular that would bring joy in working America...Ben.; March 2, 2011 at 3:21 PM
karen said...: following nbc reporter in libya now..

richardengelnbc richard engel
#libya .#tripoli.. First impressions..two libyas now.. This could be a drawn out struggle; March 2, 2011 at 3:22 PM
karen said...: confusing day! would it just make up its mind ??; March 2, 2011 at 3:34 PM
Anonymous said...: On the one hand, profits.
On the other hand, panties...

No wonder Mr Market is confused.; March 2, 2011 at 3:37 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Mr. Market needs another hand, I suspect...; March 2, 2011 at 3:41 PM
I-Man said...: Well, its been fun yall...

Going camping and salmon fishing for 4 days, enjoy the show.

Have a feeling we'll be having a lot more fun next week...; March 2, 2011 at 3:44 PM
I-Man said...: Oh yeah,

Curse the triangle.; March 2, 2011 at 3:46 PM
karen said...: Bank of America to write down mortgages under Hardest Hit Fund http://goo.gl/fb/wZDMM; March 2, 2011 at 3:46 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: It looks like we may wind up even...

Here's a thought. A 10x levered product for days like this. If you picked the ups and down correctly you could be richer than the Oracle!

...I said it was just a thought...; March 2, 2011 at 3:46 PM
karen said...: Have a wonderful time, I !! Breathe for us : ); March 2, 2011 at 3:47 PM
Jennifer said...: Bruce -- that product exists already. If you buy some front month 3 or 4 strikes ITM puts/calls at those swing points, days like this can be great. Did I mention how great today was?; March 2, 2011 at 3:48 PM
Jennifer said...: Well, not really levered 10 x, but still.; March 2, 2011 at 3:50 PM
Jennifer said...: Going out flat doesnt adequately describe today.; March 2, 2011 at 3:50 PM
I-Man said...: I'll try to take some nice pics...

:); March 2, 2011 at 3:51 PM
bob said...: I

Have fun, can't wait for the weather around here to allow that.; March 2, 2011 at 3:56 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: 102.24...but we don't depend on gas like we did I've heard...; March 2, 2011 at 4:00 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: No, CV, you can't borrow my Prius...; March 2, 2011 at 4:00 PM
Anonymous said...: Enjoy, the I- and chill.
Like you aren't already.; March 2, 2011 at 4:01 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Within a gnat's eyelash of even..; March 2, 2011 at 4:04 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Market Update

..
3:30 pm : Softs led the commodities complex higher today, posting a 1.4% gain. May sugar futures rallied 3.8% to close at $0.3038/pound, on news that JP Morgan reportedly takes delivery of nearly 1 mln tons of raw sugar.

...Bankers drink lots of coffee...; March 2, 2011 at 4:06 PM

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This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.

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Morning Corner 3.2.11

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