AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

The Bears had something to say about that first day of the month trade.

Creditcane™: Sometimes the obvious trade is the wrong trade. Keep stops tight.

SPX
Bearish engulfing day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed SMA(21). Back below the 14.6% retrace (1319.09). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1340.43). Closed below daily 3LB mid. QE2infinity. JBTFD?



DXY
Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Way below the 14.6% retrace (77.54). Below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 77.66).



VIX
Bullish LONG day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above SMA(89) & SMA(144). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 15.81). Back in the "complacent" zone. Currently does not have a monthly 3LB reversal.



GOLD
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace. Still above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1401.10). Well above upper trend line. Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above 1.3506 (the 50% retrace). Above all SMA's. Closed back below 1.3782 (fibo .09). No daily 3LB (reversal is 1.3534).



JNK
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed SMA(21). Back below its 50.0% retrace (40.47). Also still below lower trend line. Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 40.78).



IQI
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above SMA(21). Above its 23.6% retrace (11.68). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 12.30). Closed above its weekly 3LB mid (11.76).



10YR YIELD
Bearish long day. No test of 0.0% retrace at 37.44. Still failing SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 34.61).



EEM
Bearish engulfing day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back below SMA(21). Holding above its 38.2% retrace (45.06). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 46.48).



SILVER
Bullish long day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace. Back above upper trend line. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 32.86).



XRT
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below SMA(21). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 50.12).




RBOB Gasoline
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Closed back above the 14.6% retrace (2.96). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 2.87).

LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Bond Report 3.1.11

A modest risk-off day, that included a POMO of 30y bonds. Despite the drop in equities, the only big winners today were IQI and TIP, as the oil scare continues to inflate the TIPS market, and the heat is off munis for the time being. All in all, this wasn't very bullish action in bonds. ADP tomorrow, claims and NFP lined up after that to bash fixed income in the nose, and then when all that is done, supply next week.

Corpies: LQD 0.00%; AGG -0.08%; JNK -0.48%; HYG -0.15%
Govies: TLT 0.29%; IEI 0.13%; TIP 0.58%
Munis: IQI 0.51%; MUB -0.19%
Mortgages: MBB 0.07%
Specialty: ZROZ 0.29%; TBT -0.56%; EMB 0.05%

We were sellers of AGG today, and put a hedge on.
Down to 29% F/I now. 8% hedge.
We bought some SPY (5%). We are short EURUSD (7%).
Go Bucky.

Although with Libya gurgling on we could be wrong, today smells like resistance for bonds, and we think there will be weakness from here into next week's auctions.