A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.
Creditcane™: What do you want from me? Can't deny herd behavior at certain times of the month.
SPXBullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Held above SMA(21). Above the 14.6% retrace (1319.09). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1340.43). Closed above daily 3LB mid. QE2infinity. JBTFD?
DXYBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Way below the 14.6% retrace (77.54). Below all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 77.66).
VIXBearish long day. Midpoint at EMA(10). Held SMA(89). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 15.81). Back in the "no fear" zone. Currently does not have a monthly 3LB reversal.
GOLDSpinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). 0.0% retrace holding. Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1388.60). Back above upper trendline. Must have the precious.
EURUSDSpinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above 1.3506 (the 50% retrace). Above all SMA's. Closed back above 1.3782 (fibo .09). No daily 3LB (reversal is 1.3534).
LQDBullish long day. Back above SMA(233). Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 108.13). Currently does not have a monthly 3LB reversal (down).
MUBBullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above SMA(89). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 99.26). Still above the weekly 3LB mid.
10YR YIELDBearish short day. No test of 0.0% retrace at 37.44. Still failing SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 34.61).
CRBSpinning top day (body is >10% of hi-lo range). Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Made a new 0.0% retrace. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 344.36).
SILVERBullish long day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace. Back above upper trendline. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 32.30).
BKXSpinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below SMA(21). Tested and held 23.6% retrace (53.16). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 55.56).
46 comments:
Jah Ra,
Thank you for your infinite wrappage...
Always appreciated, even if not expressed.
For CV:
http://kiddynamitesworld.com/if-i-had-a-nickel/
Apologies if already posted. This blog is so cutting edge -- years ahead of Kid Dynamine at least!
So: any must sees (or must misses) on Grand Caymen, Roatan, and/or Cozumel? Kids too young to make the trek to the ruins. Kids too young to see me drink whiskey from a can, but that may not stop me.
@Jennifer (7:14)
67,000+ and counting...
I kno... Not really that much, but it's actually hard to add to the stash...
Unless it's a 24/7 occupation...
I find I average adding about 800 or so per week (from various sources)... & I've been working on it for over a year now...
The cat is starting to get out of the bag on this, so operations may come to a halt shortly...
WE NEED A MARKET CORRECTION (to hit commodity prices - which only BUYS TIME)...
The Treasury has to roll $5T ($3T rollover, $2T new issuance) in T's to be purchased in the next 12 months after QE2 expires...
Any solutions?
Only way will be to crash equities (briefly - between now and July)...
Then, of course, we'll NEED QE3... Right? Right?
So at the bottom of whatever that crash is... Just start buying physical metals...
Nickles are still face value (so you can start exchanging 4 them at any time)...
Each of these COLLAPSES has less and less of a half life... Figure the last one went from November 2008 (when commodity prices bottomed out) - to July 2010 (when QE2 came along to PREVENT another collapse)...
So the FIRST stick save lasted about 20 months... QE2 will last around 10... Next one??? Who knows? Around 5???
Paper assets, anymore, are just glorified baseball cards (that you get TAXED on trading)...
Hopefully you'll get you hands on a Honus Wagner... ("worth" a lot to some - but if you hold on to it too long, it is, after all, only a BASEBALL CARD, and might not even get you a slice of pie in the worst case scenario)...
http://nymag.com/news/features/berniemadoff-2011-3/
You have a collect call from Bernie Madoff, will you accept?
foghorn
@ben22
49 reps of 225 at the NFL combine...
UFB!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KjX66JHNU90
Who's going to believe we need QE3 if "they crash markets"
especially since the Ben Bernanke has been telling everyone QE2 has boosted markets (Ben really likes small caps apparently)
If stocks stop going up, who is going to believe QE3 will be any different, and what will it's purpose be this time?
There seems to be a logical flaw in the rationale there, of course, people love a good fairy tale.
In CV's day (like - when I was 19)... I could do 23 reps at 225...
But you might as well be saying the JUMP from 23-49 (while it only 'seems' like a little more than double), is like the difference between jumping over a VW Beetle, and jumping over the Empire State Building...
CV,
that was sick wasn't it? what a powerhouse
I used to lift a lot of weights back in college and my first few years out, people should try to see just how many times in a row they can bench the bar alone, you'll be on fire by the time you get to 50, I doubt most people could even do the bar 50 times in a row, then put 135 on and try that....what that dude did there was insane.
This class coming in has some of the best athletic ability in years.
and to top it all of, Bama's QB even aced the Wonderlic.
b22
also, I'm trying to think if I get $40 worth of change each week, I guess I don't get out enough, that seems like a lot to me but I guess if I got change and paid cash for everything each week I could do it. I just looked in my wallet though, I have exactly $4 in it. I rarely carry cash on me, outside of the house stash, I pay for nearly everything electronically, suppose I should cash in my amex points before they stop offering anything for them, wonder if they'll trade me some nickels for them?
Jay-Z says you should always have $3k on you at all times, I'm not quite rolling like that though...
@anon (8;47)
The question to me frankly ISN'T what stocks are going to do (or even the bond market)...
The QUESTION to me is "How is the US going to continue to fund the debt issuance without outright;
- Hiding it
- Lying about the accounting of it
- Just doing it in plain daylight and have the FED "monetize" it
That's all anyone really needs to know...
Basically - if a thief is stealing from you (without protest), what's going to stop him/her from just relieving you from all your belongings...?
So probably since there was no real objection (save for Libya - Egypt - Tunisia - & Co.) on QE2... QE3 ought to be a foregone conclusion...
But I suppose we have another 3 months to mull it over (just to make sure what's happening in the streets of Tripoli & Cairo isn't happening in Madison, Wisconsin)...
With the "Badgers" probably up for a #3 seed in MARCH MADNESS, & "Dancing With the Stars" new contestants to be revealed any day now, I think we're safe... FOR NOW...
"BADGERS... We don't need no stinkin' BADGERS!"
ROR
"Jay-Z says you should always have $3k on you at all times"
4 hookers & blow... no doubt... How can I argue with THAT logic?... The hookers & coke dealers prefer the BENJAMINS... And those aren't things you tend to get to "run up" the AMEX rewards points...
That guy on the Bench was in "beast mode" for sure...
I like the way he just sort of "cruised" through the first 40 without even pausing for a second...
Stud.
@ANON
"If stocks stop going up, who is going to believe QE3 will be any different, and what will it's purpose be this time?
I'll tackle that...
IMHO - We're on a PATH right now that will actually lead us to around the 1400 level...
I happen to think that if the S&P reaches there... TECHNICALLY... It's a favorable mathematical symmetry...
- 50% of 1400 would be 700 (worst case scenario - which would TRY to stay above 666)
- 50% of the difference = 1,050 (you're talking the "zone" where there was support in 2010)...
- 38.2% of the distance (1400 - 666) would be 1,119... 38.3% of the distance (1400 - 700) would be 1,132
1119-1132 was an important battleground in 2010...
---
So my POINT is... Everyone (save for JOE PUBLIC) knows that the market is a manipulated PONZI SCHEME at the moment...
Levels have to be reached that allow for CLASSIC TECHNICAL ANALYSES to somehow be able to RETROFIT tried and true mathematical ratios & levels (such as "fibonacci levels")...
So WTF cares if there are any FUNDAMENTALS involved... Joe public doesn't know anything about fibonacci levels (he just wants to hang around until his 401K gets back to somewhere near where it was "pre 2008 crash")...
Despite the PAIN & ANXIETY he experienced after 2008... He was SO HAPPY he voted for Obama to "SAVE EVERYTHING", and now his stock portfolio is back on track...
The NEXT SHOCK... Will only have to produce BOUNCEBACK results more quickly...
TIME IS COLLAPSING here (while the "monetary wizards" are just trying to distract his attention, dangle new "carrots of faith", and steal his money by devaluing the PAPER that his assets are valued in)...
That's just my stupid opinion...
@ben
Saw your comment earlier today. The move down from the top was not impulsive and therefore not the beginning of a big fat c-wave.
Thus, an x-wave development off the peak is a decent probabability....
my guess is we'll end up seeing 1226 on the SP500, but that will likely be the "dip" to buy...
Sideways/Lower would be the progrostication for the next several weeks, but not yet the beginning of a "big one."
Oh CRAP...
CRAMER just went bullish SLV!!!
Get me outta here!!!
Jennifer... FORGET everything I ever said...
@Andy
I ousted your wife by "one"...
She had 5 out of 6...
CV had 6 out of 6 (but I'm going to try to do BETTER next time)...
CV,
I never really got Jay-Z carrying around that cash, no doubt the dude has the Black Amex, in which case, he could buy whatever he sees, I suppose it comes from back in the day when he was 'selling snowflakes by the O-Z"
but yeah, you can't buy too many street drugs with the amex
Looks like Silver wants to probe those Hunt Bros' highs....can't wait....
AT,
thanks a lot for that, I haven't had much time to spend on the charts tonight.
If it's an X wave down to 1220 range I'm trying to picture the form of that rise back up from there, I suppose I could see another variation of the neutral Neo wave triangle but I'm not too sure of that, also, if that's all part of the B wave isn't it getting quite long compared to the A?
I think also where I struggle now with that count is that if it's just an X wave but still part of the larger B wave, it would seem more likely we have a better chance at new highs, or at least the 1450's....is that right?
@cv
~~~~~~~~~
"- 3 out of 4 FINAL FOUR teams last year
- the Kentucky Derby Winner (Super Saver), in a field of 20 horses
- 'Nosed out' at the wire (Fly Down) in the Belmont
- Preseason pick (Green Bay Packers), win the Super Bowl"
~~~~~~~~
Honestly man, I'd rank those predictions multiples higher than the Oscar picks...
re: SLV,
Im pretty convinced that's a bull flag on your silver chart, I think you could make some good money on SLV options by March expy.
of course, the thing about bull flags is they typically come toward the end of bull runs, gotta be ninja here, but that chart looks bullish to me
@ben22
1400+, it seems to me...must be baked in by now...
I don't want to slice and dice it further (because I think it will end up applying to some longer term macro numbers that I described above)...
But again... My "point" is more to the tune of WHY would anyone be concerned with the exact levels???
Now - THAT SAID - I'll admit that the TRADERS in this forum could probably end up profiting by hitting fairly closely to the wave peaks and valleys towards that progression...
But someone using a more BLUNT instrument... Because of the ramifications NEEDED to achieve those numbers, ought to simply endeavor themselves in the acquisition of transferring PAPER to PHYSICAL (at present)...
So let that be my underlying note to you all... CV does not DENOUNCE trading in this environment... I simply implore everyone to have a high understanding of the "time compression" element realities of transferring that last scrap of paper to physical when the time comes...
And from THAT perspective... Do I sound that different from Prechter, Faber, or Rogers???
ben22@9.50
Not sure I would jump to those conclusions.
If this big b-wave ends up being a textbook typ "triple", then you'd have the following setup in place:
w-x-y-x-z.
The first x-wave retraced EXCATLY 23.6% of w-wave.
The y-wave was 62% of w-wave [Waves running in the same direction run a high probability of being related by phi]
Because the first x-wave only retraced 23.6%, I'm expecting something a bit deeper on the second one [for alternation]--at least a 1226 for a 38.2% retrace of y-wave.
Because the y-wave was 62% of w, one might expect the z-wave to be 38% of y [for alternation]. Thus, it's entirely possible we end up with some sort of double top around 1340's...
That said, I'm "assuming" some sort of textbook "triple"....
And, you know what they say about 'assuming' things....
@Andy T (9:54)
OK... Actually I'd agree 100%...
But I also take that as a challenge...
CV will issue...
- Final 4 predictions for 2011
- A Derby/Preakness/Belmont pick for 2011
- A preseason Superbowl pick for next year
At MINIMUM... My "track record" isn't so bad thus far :-)
CV,
My entire life is focused on exact levels, but I get what you are saying. I don't subscribe to the same school of thought of many people here, not that there's anything wrong with that ;-)
I think that's EXACTLY why I like Prechter, Faber, & Rogers...
They don't strike me as being guys who want to END UP with the the highest value of digits on their mythical electronic balance sheets...
They don't even seem like they are interested to CONTROL anything (vis a vis a "Soros", or even a "Buffett")...
They basically strike me as types who have provided for themselves the BEST ODDS of sustenance, without disrupting the QUALITY of their lives, in the WORST CASE scenario...
I admire that...
I have to disagree with the final four teams getting picked being a great call.
Why?
Because I've picked all final four teams so many times and not won my pool, it's all about those first two rounds. I am the whipping boy in a huge one back home for constantly getting the finals correct and finishing in 4th place where the top 3 finish in the money. this has happened to me 6 times in the last 10 years, no joke.
I've also won several pools only getting half the final four teams right but getting the final two and the champ correct.
the horse race and packers calls were great ones, I'll give you those CV.
"of course, the thing about bull flags is they typically come toward the end of bull runs, gotta be ninja here, but that chart looks bullish to me"
That Silver chart reminds me A LOT of the CL Chart back in the early 2000's...
The Hunt Bros high plays the role of 1991 Gulf War spike. Then, it took a "a long time" to congest that move.
On the next big move up, crude oil had a REALLY hard time taking out the Gulf War high of 1991 (approx 40 bucks.) I can remember selling 39.90 for size and thinking I was a genius for 'nailing the top.'
Of course, there was no good fundamental reason for crude to reverse at 40 bucks in 2003...it mostly reversed because there were a bunch of other guys just like me selling into the $40 "TOP."
In retrospect, it was "silly" to sell that level, but the market did tumble from 40 to 25 in a short period of time...(that's a 38% move down)
So, for a few good months, I was a "genius."
Ha ha!
LSS: Silver seems to have the "stuff" to make it to 40, but it will be sold "heavily" into that area.
AT,
Thanks for that.
counting that way with the consonant waves would only be fitting I suppose, it's how EWI was originally labeling their chart!
"Because I've picked all final four teams so many times and not won my pool, it's all about those first two rounds. "
Dude, that's a poorly constructed pool then...
The weightings 'should' increase exponentially as the teams advance.
I'd be issuing protests....
Final four predictions this year should prove really hard to hit all four, haven't seen parity like this in college hoops in a long, long time.
Nearly any of those teams in the Big East could win it all
AT,
Nah, the points are normal as they are with most leagues and rise as the rounds move forward, where the difference comes is that others have all the final four teams but they did way better than me in the first two rounds. This pool in particular has almost 350 people and you can two entries, it's only $5 per bracket or they run a special 2 for $10, so everyone does two and you get quite a few people that pick all the final four teams, so it really boils down to who did the best those first few rounds. Only one time did it come to a tie-breaker on the final score, and I remember the year that happened, it was the last time Arizona won the dance.
I have a bad habit of getting way too into trying to pick upsets in the first round, like picking all the 12 seeds.
@ben22
Picking a KENTUCKY DERBY winner is, without a doubt, the toughest...
A lot can go wrong, and it's really subject to THE DAY & THE TRACK...
That's why I got 9-1 odds...
Although let me break this down for you a little further (you being the EXACT MATH afficianado - just funnin there)...
- KENTUCKY DERBY WINNER @ 9-1
- BELMONT WINNER@ 9-2
- PACKERS WERE 12-1 PRESEASON to win the SUPERBOWL
- 3 out of 4 picks to Final 4 was probably 3-1
- 6 out of 6 OSCAR PICKS was 'mathematically' astronomical (but likely 5-2 in reality - gotta account for at least ONE upset)...
So... .11 X .22 X .08 X .33 X .4 = .0002555 probability...
That's STILL not bad (crossing 4 'genres' of sporting/social events & socioeconomics)... At least "I" don't think it's too shabby...
@ben22
I'm going to HIT 3 out of 4 (in the FINAL FOUR)... Again - you'll see...
But I ALSO agree with you... It's the EARLY ROUND games that end up to be bracket busters...
I'll give you my WORKING FORMULA (which you can use or discard to help avoid those pitfalls)...
Pitfall = Andy's wife choosing "Aronofsky" as BEST DIRECTOR...
As CV says... IT'S FORMULAIC... If Hooper didn't win, it was going to be Fincher (because Aronofsky loses a head to head vs. Fincher)...
Paper - Rock - Scissors (learn them, know them, love them)...
CV,
yeah, those were all impressive calls over a one year period. The oscars thing I just can't really comment on, I don't know anything about good cinema, I like a lot of really dumb movies, and I haven't even seen most of those movies from this years Oscars.
If you get all final four teams this year I'll give you major props for that. I think it's going to be super hard. I've been putting serious time in watching games for about the last month, teams are all over the map right now, Jimmer and BYU might just win it all, but is anyone really going to pick them to do that?
I can't wait, March Madness is my fav. sporting event of all sports.
@Andy
"Silver seems to have the "stuff" to make it to 40, but it will be sold "heavily" into that area..."
---
I'll BOW to your technical understanding of these price levels, but let me add this...
I think we're in a different PARADIGM now...
That's the PAPER price for silver you're referring to...
Never before (in MY lifetime - at least), has the CAT BEEN OUT OF THE BAG with regards to the Ponzi of fiat (the way it is now)...
Therefore - from this point forward... I think we're looking at the imminent (or not so, but soon to be, NEW MONETARY SYSTEM) to come along... While I can't say how many "waves" that will take to happen, I think I say it'll be SOONER rather than NEVER...
Or - Let me put it in other ways...
- The DOLLAR is no longer the worlds reserve currency - GOLD ALREADY IS
- Silver is going to stick closer to GOLD (and less closely to the dollar)
- I think the central banks already KNOW this (and are behind the curve with regards to getting the bars and ingots into their vaults)...
Therefore, on any "crash" of prices (I'd prefer to call them "stairsteps" at the moment)... There will be PHYSICAL buyers of volume HOPING to come in at certain FIAT levels...
Or - let me put it another way...
Let's say 666 represents the BOTTOM of the S&P...
666 SPX = $20 silver (or thereabouts)
for example, from what I could tell on the Oscars, Kings Speech
I have no interest in seeing that movie
what are you all seeing on the long bonds right now in futures?
wondering if I have bad data here, if not,
ruh roh.
@ben22
"Jimmer and BYU might just win it all, but is anyone really going to pick them to do that?
I'm going to say NOW that I think BYU "will" make it to the Final 4...
Again - it's all based on my FORMULA (which is equivalent to YOU, OR I-MAN, or ANDY and the formulae you use for trading)...
It'll have to come down to when I do my WEEKEND POST on that... As of this moment... I have (in no ORDER)...
- Duke
- Ohio State
- Pitt (but will probably get bounced because they're perennial chokers)
- Kansas
- BYU
- Purdue
- Notre Dame
- Wisconsin
as contenders...
Texas is up there (but they're also 'choke-a-holics" in crunch time)... Frankly - I can't see anyone else capable of runing that deep...
It'll depend on the BRACKETS (and some of the dynamics of Conference Tournament play - which is a factor in my formula)...
Face to the grill???
I'd have to go with Ohio State - BYU - Kansas - Purdue (at the moment)... But how do I know if they'll all end up in different brackets at the moment...???
@ben22
Not seeing anything fruitful in the 10 or 30 (but LB kind of suggested that)...
The RUH ROH to me might be the "look" of the CAD or AUD...
Andy's $38 silver may happen sooner rather than later...
I had bad ticks, never mind.
STOP THE PRESSES!!!
This is all any of you need to know for the next 6 months (or whatever)...
http://msn.foxsports.com/other/story/Dancing-with-the-Stars-Hines-Ward-Chris-Jericho-Sugar-Ray-Leonard-Lil-Romeo-022811
Monthly 3LB Updates:
SPX
monthly info new high 1327.22
trend=up
high= 1327.22
rev= 1089.41; mid= 1208.32
Dow Jones
monthly info new high 12226.34
trend=up
high= 12226.34
rev= 11118.49; mid= 11672.42
Nasdaq Composite
monthly info new high 2782.27
trend=up
high= 2782.27
rev= 2507.41; mid= 2644.84
DXY
monthly info new low 76.89
trend=down
low= 76.89
rev= 81.87; mid= 79.38
SLV
monthly info new high 33.11
trend=up
high= 33.11
rev= 24.17; mid= 28.64
XLF
monthly info MONTHLY CONFIRMATION new high 16.85
trend=no; direction=up (2 bars)
high= 16.85
rev= 13.55; mid= 15.20
CRB
monthly info new high 352.58
trend=up
high= 352.58
rev= 301.41; mid= 327.00
CAT
monthly info new high 102.93
trend=up
high= 102.93
rev= 84.60; mid= 93.77
BIDU
monthly info new high 121.16
trend=up
high= 121.16
rev= 81.41; mid= 101.29
JPM
monthly info MONTHLY CONFIRMATION hew high 46.69
trend=no; direction=up (2 bars)
high= 46.69
rev= 36.36; mid= 41.53
UUP
monthly info new low 22.09
trend=down
low= 22.09
rev= 22.84; mid= 22.47
AAPL
monthly info new high 353.21
trend=up
high= 353.21
rev= 311.15; mid= 332.18
XRT
monthly info new high 49.22
trend=up
high= 49.22
rev= 43.61; mid= 46.42
@Amen
Yeah... but all that 3LB BS is all just a bunch of "voodoo" right?
:-)
- 1400 bitchez
- $50 silver bitchez (then 'correction' - but a BIG 'jbtfd' correction in the grand scheme)
- QE3 bitchez! (wait until AFTER Japan fiscal YE & Some Eurozone mess)
- Hope & Change bitchez!
It's all on cruise control...
BUREAUOCRACY - CORPOTOCRACY!!! (we got your backs - keep BELEIVING in your status - while we DEFLATE your purchasing power)...
It's all good! DWTS 2011 contestants were announced today! Keep your eye on the PAPER ball!!!
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