TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Corner 3.1.11

Morning Corner 3.1.11

DXY (weekly info)
new low 77.28
trend=down
hlow= 77.28
rev= 78.13; mid= 77.71

Any questions?

Silver (weekly info)
new high 32.92
trend=up
high= 32.92
rev= 29.33; mid= 31.13

It's a done deal. Silver shorts are in the frying pan. The pain of keeping prices down has turned into torture.

236 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 1 – 200 of 236 Newer› Newest»

Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.cnbc.com/id/41844284

Pension Funds Strained, States Look at 401(k) Plans; March 1, 2011 at 7:12 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/02/28/pro-gadhafi-forces-fight-rebels-2-cities/

Pro-Qaddafi Forces Try to Retake Strategic City

"The convoy was met with a small pro-Qaddafi demonstration as it made its way out of Tripoli. "God, Qaddafi, Libya and that's it," chanted the demonstrators."

...Bernanke was furious!; March 1, 2011 at 7:14 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-28/christie-spurs-u-s-governors-to-try-a-confrontational-statehouse-politics.html

Christie Spurs U.S. Governors to Adopt Confrontational Statehouse Politics

"He mixes it up with other governors, such as Maryland Democrat Martin O’Malley, who said Christie is “abusive toward public employees” and that he is a budget hypocrite for skipping the state’s $3 billion pension bill payment.

“If he doesn’t like my style then we don’t have to date,” Christie said in Washington. “It’s OK by me.”; March 1, 2011 at 7:17 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-28/inflation-above-9-shows-bankers-aren-t-gods-commentary-by-william-pesek.html

Inflation Above 9% Shows Bankers Aren't Gods

...Gas here is up another dime yesterday. That is 28 cents in 2.5 weeks...

...'gonna leave a mark...; March 1, 2011 at 7:20 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-01/germany-s-unemployment-shrinks-three-times-as-fast-as-economists-estimated.html

German unemployment plunged in February three times as fast as economists forecast, underlining the gulf between Europe’s biggest economy and the region’s peripheral countries.

Germany’s shrinking joblessness is helping Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government meet a constitutionally imposed deficit ceiling in 2015, a year earlier than planned.

...Yes fellow deficit spenders, Germany has a balanced budget amendment...so the government understands they eat only what they kill.....; March 1, 2011 at 7:25 AM
CV said...: germany has a balanced budget amendment because they have memories of the weimar days...

this country has no such memories... but we could probably teell you [from memory] about 3 dwts winners...; March 1, 2011 at 7:48 AM
CV said...: BTW... How do I know there will eventually be a QE3 to "monetize the debt"?

Answer: Because they explicitly said that they would NOT monetize the debt...; March 1, 2011 at 8:07 AM
CV said...: TAIPEI -- The Taiwan High Prosecutors Office vowed yesterday to harshly crack down on anyone caught hoarding food staples as part of the government's efforts to stabilize food prices amid a string of price hikes following the Lunar New Year."

http://www.chinapost.com.tw/taiwan/national/national-news/2011/02/18/291566/Prosecutors-Office.htm

---

Hear that people??? It's the Lunar Chinese New year why food prices are up!!!

NOT the fact that the Chinese have to keep up printing RMB to match the dollar peg...; March 1, 2011 at 8:11 AM
AmenRa said...: CV

Isn't it the "Year of the Rat"?; March 1, 2011 at 8:19 AM
Anonymous said...: cv--,

Taiwan trades on its own 'dollar', no?

not RMB ...

http://coinmill.com/TWD_calculator.html

AAIP; March 1, 2011 at 8:32 AM
ben22 said...: this poor kid can see zombie bears:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fe4EK4HSPkI

no worries kid, they are dying off:

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aDO12ycc0DA0; March 1, 2011 at 8:50 AM
CV said...: @AAIP

True dat... But I was making a logic leap to make a point...

@Amen

2011 = Year of the Cat (Rabbit)...

"Catfood bitchez!"
"Rabbit Pellets bitchez!" :-); March 1, 2011 at 8:54 AM
CV said...: Next year (2012) = Year of Dragon...

So "the Bernank" can "PET MY DRAGON!"; March 1, 2011 at 8:56 AM
CV said...: OT...

But this is one of the "coolest" things ever...

http://www.thebagster.com/; March 1, 2011 at 8:59 AM
Jennifer said...: Sigh...closed my LVS puts yesterday. Do I have bad timing or what? (They were profitable so I can't complain too much.); March 1, 2011 at 9:04 AM
Anonymous said...: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3NbN7yl2_fM&feature=player_embedded

quick clip..

thought it funny..

AAIP; March 1, 2011 at 9:06 AM
Anonymous said...: Pre-Market Real-Time: 44.73 1.91 (4.10%) 9:07AM EST

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=lvs

J-

why close those Puts?

AAIP; March 1, 2011 at 9:08 AM
Jennifer said...: Mark,

Panicky profit protection -- nothing more. Chart looks like crap.; March 1, 2011 at 9:12 AM
Anonymous said...: J-

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=LVS

looks like it ~has fallen out of 'the Wedge'..

also, seems these:
45.00 LVS110319C00045000 2.64 0.00 N/A N/A 3,518 33,000
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=LVS+Options

at the min., will not get Paid..

but, re: "PPP", I hear ya, can be a b**** :)

AAIP; March 1, 2011 at 9:21 AM
Anonymous said...: In similar news -

Tea, Tea, Tea, makes you PPP; March 1, 2011 at 9:25 AM
AmenRa said...: Dumping of the long bond in progress.; March 1, 2011 at 9:26 AM
CV said...: "Dumping of the long bond in progress..."

---

"Dumping of anything related to paper - in progress"

There... fixed it!; March 1, 2011 at 9:29 AM
Anonymous said...: Forex & Bonds Last Change Change %
EUR/USD 1.3831 +0.0022 +0.16%
USD/JPY 82.14 +0.37 +0.45%
GBP/USD 1.6286 +0.0020 +0.12%
5-Year Treasury 2.193 +0.056 +2.62%
10-Year Treasury 3.477 +0.063 +1.85%
30-Year Treasury 4.545 +0.055 +1.22%
http://finviz.com/; March 1, 2011 at 9:30 AM
ben22 said...: AAIP,

nice vid

I liked the guy holding up the iPhone

"I have it all recorded"

classic; March 1, 2011 at 9:31 AM
ben22 said...: TLT looks worse than it really is

divvy today; March 1, 2011 at 9:32 AM
ben22 said...: First of da month:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PArF9k2SbQk

these guys have probably been trading the this pattern since the 90's, this song makes so much sense now.; March 1, 2011 at 9:37 AM
karen said...: good morning! I'm loving all these bank stories.. got litigation costs?

EEM took 46..; March 1, 2011 at 9:38 AM
karen said...: this could be a buying opp in TLT.. TBT just looks like a dead cat (sorry kitties.); March 1, 2011 at 9:39 AM
Anonymous said...: Crude Oil 97.85 +0.88 +0.91
Natural Gas 4.026 -0.011 -0.27
Corn 731.0 +9.0 +1.23
Soybeans 1364.75 -10.25 -0.75
30yr Bond 119.62500 -0.71875 -0.60
10yr Note 119.046875 +0.109375 +0.09
NY Gold 1421.2 +11.3 +0.80
NY Silver 34.360 +0.540 +1.60
http://www.ino.com/

S&P 500
1324.32
+4.44 +0.34%

nice numerals~

ibid.; March 1, 2011 at 9:45 AM
karen said...: note HYG and JNK..

if I didn't know better, I'd think a person could short this market.; March 1, 2011 at 9:45 AM
ben22 said...: Karen,

I suppose I'd rather be long NLY than short JNK.

I realize it's stocks and bonds, but they aren't really that much different.; March 1, 2011 at 9:50 AM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: We read a scathing attack on NLY somewhere. I think it was written by a youngish person who was convinced NLY would be undone by rising rates. As you know that's not part of our macro playbook.

OTOH, we are about to see a Death of Treasuries week, between today and next week's auctions. Hold your fire until noon on TBT as a long end POMO is imminent. Once the B/D have off loaded you can FYB.; March 1, 2011 at 9:54 AM
karen said...: Ben, i didn't mean short JNK or HYG.. I meant the "market" in general..; March 1, 2011 at 9:57 AM
karen said...: From Rosenberg this morning on margin: It exploded 5% in January and margin debt is now up at a whopping 33% at an annual rate in the last three months.; March 1, 2011 at 10:05 AM
bob said...: Ben

What do you and your E wave jedi sense make of this guy? His calls of late have been pretty good.

http://www.cap-man.com/; March 1, 2011 at 10:05 AM
Jennifer said...: Maybe the Mu Fu crowd thought it was a leap year this year?; March 1, 2011 at 10:07 AM
AmenRa said...: ISM Manufacturing Report

Prices 82.0 up from 81.5

Margin collapse continues.; March 1, 2011 at 10:10 AM
AmenRa said...: Jennifer

Or banks getting slaughtered.
BKX -1.33%; March 1, 2011 at 10:12 AM
ben22 said...: Bob,

I'll take a look at that later tonight, at first glance there might be some issues with a few of the labels, the currencies are real hard to put a count on right now, that Euro count is real interesting, looks like he's got in a larger C wave up here, will have to go back and figure out if that makes sense.

I don't count the currencies much outside the dollar, I figured a while back the dollar makes the best waves because despite the fact that it's trash, it's still (imo) the most widely followed fiat in the world, and so I'd suspect it'd make the cleanest waves.

I'm sort of with AT on the dollar though, it's pretty much wearing me out.

@AFIA,

Didn't one of the Fed govs come out yesterday and say QE3 was coming?

Rates rising? Sure they are.....

Zero Bound....bitches.; March 1, 2011 at 10:12 AM
bob said...: Ben

He just called for a 500 pt drop on Dow, which would still be bullish in his book.; March 1, 2011 at 10:14 AM
Anonymous said...: Maybe the Mu Fu crowd thought it was a leap year this year?

Nice one !! BEWARE THE POMO.; March 1, 2011 at 10:15 AM
Anonymous said...: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-01/ge-to-invest-500-million-in-china-r-d-2011-2012-caijing-says.html?cmpid=yhoo

that should do wonders for 'U.S.' "Jobs"..

good going Jiff~

ibid.; March 1, 2011 at 10:15 AM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: bob

Still modestly short EURUSD, followed your playbook on that.; March 1, 2011 at 10:16 AM
karen said...: http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/china-us-treasuries-us-treasury-bonds/3/1/2011/id/33063

Annual revisions released Monday show that China's holding of US Treasuries is 30% greater than reported just weeks ago.; March 1, 2011 at 10:18 AM
AFIA said...: Didn't one of the Fed govs come out yesterday and say QE3 was coming?

Those of us who are students of Japan know QE3 is coming.
Muni collapse, Fwash Cwash 2, QE3 (muni version).
Then Son of Stimulus that's the way we see it.; March 1, 2011 at 10:18 AM
Anonymous said...: Annual revisions released Monday show that China's holding of US Treasuries is 30% greater than reported just weeks ago.

More sh*t has been written about China diversifying out of USD and USTs than can be accommodated in a really gigantic septic system.; March 1, 2011 at 10:19 AM
bob said...: We just tested and bounced off 20ma on the 4h EUR. Forex live says options are ruling and will keep EUR in this general area for the time being.

137 recent low and would probably take some off the table there...; March 1, 2011 at 10:20 AM
ben22 said...: Bob,

I would tend to agree, I don't believe this correction is over, at least not from a wave perspective.

I know we all have our ups and downs with Barry, but I would just note that he runs a big huge mainstream financial blog, the first of the month trade was noted on there this morning as it has been many many other places as well as get a lot of air on tv from various pundits.

guys, this has been around for decades, and chalking it up to 401k money isn't what is really happening there....

look for smart traders to start to punish retail on this now that they "know the strategy"

doesn't mean we close red today, but people are taking this first of the month thing as absolute fact, I mean, it's not like every single first of the month was bullish last year, pretty sure both June and July were down...

nothing always works; March 1, 2011 at 10:23 AM
ben22 said...: How can you not like the title of Faber's latest

"There is nothing more dangerous than a powerful fool"; March 1, 2011 at 10:26 AM
Anonymous said...: JBTFD.; March 1, 2011 at 10:26 AM
AFIA said...: Short EURUSD/short TLT is a good defence against a strong jobs number tomorrow and that's what a lot of people are looking at, rightly or wrongly.; March 1, 2011 at 10:27 AM
CV said...: Didn't one of the Fed govs come out yesterday and say QE3 was coming?

Yeah... Here's HOW it was said...

"We will NOT monetize the debt" (Translation: QE3 is on the way!)... ror; March 1, 2011 at 10:27 AM
ben22 said...: "Those of us who are students of Japan know QE3 is coming."

I wouldn't disagree, it's still early enough to do QE3 but they should get it in place soon, if I'm Bernanke I want that in place and ready to go in the next month or two.

In Japan political pressures stopped central bankers there from monetizing all the debt, so I'm not so certain, if we use Japan as the model, that we will QE it all, time will tell I guess, but that figure is something like 1 quadrillion all-in.; March 1, 2011 at 10:33 AM
karen said...: http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/3/1/is-strong-economic-data-the-reason-stocks-are-up-on-the-firs.html; March 1, 2011 at 10:41 AM
Anonymous said...: so much for 'whiskey in a can' being 'big' in Japan..

http://www.japantrends.com/umeshu-plum-liqueur-for-ladies-joins-non-alcohol-party/

ibid.; March 1, 2011 at 10:44 AM
AFIA said...: if I'm Bernanke I want that in place and ready to go in the next month or two.

Probably already in the plans but they will not announce it.; March 1, 2011 at 10:46 AM
AFIA said...: POMO will close soon. Got TBT?; March 1, 2011 at 10:47 AM
ben22 said...: Karen,

Average MF according to MorningStar has roughly 89% annual turnover, then funds on the tails have maybe only 25% or as high as 1,000%.

If the average fund nearly turns over 100% of the fund annually, it's likely then at the first of each month or toward the end of each month funds have perhaps 5-15% of their portfolio in to put to work. Most funds are long only and have mandates about holding too much cash, so the money is being put back into equity longs or sector rotating. I don't know the exact size of the MF industry right now but if the average fund has 5-15% to work with each month this might equate to several hundred billion dollars in 'cash on the sidelines' around each first of the month that will bid equities, so consider all the credit QE2, which was 600 billion over many months gets for "providing liquidity" and then consider the size of that MF repositioning, that seems a more logical explanation to me.

then of course you've got tons of hedge funds that front run this b/c they know it, etc. etc.

The new money in 401k's never made any sense at all to me.

1. If that's really what was happening how come fund flows for retail investors only showed positive equity flows in the last few months, it's not like retail was buying up tons of equity each first of the month. Most of the new money hasn't been going into stocks until recently.

2. Not everyone gets paid on the first of the month, most people are on semi-monthly or bi-weekly pays, so you'd expect if it was really about new money in 401k's then you'd see it occur at other times during the month.

just my general thoughts on this....; March 1, 2011 at 10:49 AM
karen said...: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/how-far-will-market-fall; March 1, 2011 at 10:52 AM
AFIA said...: We sold a little NLY at a profit. Probably peaking here for now, as we look at a week or so of a relatively bond unfriendly trade. Will probably cash in some NZT at the close as well.; March 1, 2011 at 10:53 AM
I-Man said...: We find ourselves disgustingly long...

Cover, and pay the I, shorts...; March 1, 2011 at 11:00 AM
ben22 said...: so many of these POMO days print nearly the same exact chart

ground hog day....; March 1, 2011 at 11:00 AM
karen said...: Diana Olick
LPS: Almost 30% of loans in foreclosure haven't made a payment in over 2 years, and nearly 50% haven't in a year and a half.; March 1, 2011 at 11:02 AM
ben22 said...: there is a "search for a culprit" to explain the quakes in Ark.

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say the culprit is

Earth

that said, think it was gristle that linked it, but wasnt' there another huge solar flare yesterday?; March 1, 2011 at 11:03 AM
Anonymous said...: A nice debunking of the Voldy disinvestment theory:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/03/china-holdings-of-us-treasuries-revised.html; March 1, 2011 at 11:03 AM
CV said...: In Japan political pressures stopped central bankers there from monetizing all the debt, so I'm not so certain, if we use Japan as the model, that we will QE it all, time will tell I guess, but that figure is something like 1 quadrillion all-in

They'll keep trying to do it incrementally until China "caves" and de-pegs...

Instead, if China keeps holding on to the peg, the poor bastards will just have to pay more for food...

Meahwhile - the tipping point in the US ought to come when "food stamps" reaches 100,000,000... (and the "nut" no longer buys you 2,000 calories a day)...

Or thereabouts...

This can go on for a long time because many in America aren't "family units" huddled together under the same roof...

So there are yet a lot of SAVINGS that can be realized before anyone here really goes hungry...

But you need to tell granny to spend her social security check on something useful as soon as she gets it in the mail...; March 1, 2011 at 11:06 AM
I-Man said...: Closing the long, lets see what they got...

Looking to get back in about 30 pts lower.; March 1, 2011 at 11:11 AM
bob said...: Ben

There is some weird stuff that is very correlated to quake activity. No scientist will go out on the limb and call it causality.

Examples- The dam built right on top of the fault in the last big china quake. It was in the process of being filled. The epicenter was only a few miles from it.

Quebec last year- The quake was after MASSIVE forest fires. How much weight was moved off the face of the earth there? There was smoke in Boston from it.

Loading and unloading weight.

I worked with a Geotechnical engineer who put these thoughts in my head. There is no way to prove causality, so no one will touch it. Too many other variables and no detailed 'baseline' measurements to use.; March 1, 2011 at 11:12 AM
CV said...: *666 – The Saudi regime falls, and 12 million barrels a day disappears from the market for the indefinite future. Unemployment hits 15%. Obama is toast. Your broker turns bearish and tells you to sell everything. Welcome to the Great Depression II. It starts raining frogs.

---

ROR - frogs bitchez!; March 1, 2011 at 11:12 AM
Matthew said...: "Annual revisions released Monday show that China's holdings of US Treasuries is 30% greater than reported just weeks ago."

This has been happening for at least a decade. It's basically the result of China buying the Ts through intermediaries and the score being updated by the annual survey.

Brad Setser juxtaposed a chart of the UK holdings and China holdings and you can see the UK holdings adjusted down massively at the same time China's holdings are adjusted up. This happens like clockwork.; March 1, 2011 at 11:14 AM
CV said...: Quebec last year- The quake was after MASSIVE forest fires. How much weight was moved off the face of the earth there? There was smoke in Boston from it.

Loading and unloading weight.

Well if that's the case... BRUCE IN TN is in the forefront as a culprit!...

Quit friggin tap dancing around Bruce! You're messing up the geology!; March 1, 2011 at 11:15 AM
ben22 said...: Bob,

that's pretty wild, I have no understanding of any of that stuff, really interesting to me though, wish I had more time to look into it.; March 1, 2011 at 11:15 AM
AFIA said...: per Bloomy, consensus NFP is +188k.
The whisper number is +250.

ADP over +100 and we will see major bond dumpage.
Slim chance of that.; March 1, 2011 at 11:16 AM
CV said...: "Annual revisions released Monday show that China's holdings of US Treasuries is 30% greater than reported just weeks ago."

This has been happening for at least a decade. It's basically the result of China buying the Ts through intermediaries and the score being updated by the annual survey.

Thus the "peg"; March 1, 2011 at 11:17 AM
AFIA said...: Thanks, Matt. The China dumping Treasuries nonsense has been loud recently and is completely absurd. The Chinese have watched Japan for years and they know where this one is headed.

But the "self-sustaining recovery", "Death of Treasuries" and DGDF people are really in the ascendancy at the moment.; March 1, 2011 at 11:20 AM
CV said...: per Bloomy, consensus NFP is +188k.
The whisper number is +250.

ADP over +100 and we will see major bond dumpage.

CV has a preview of the report...

"Unemployment as measured by U3 remains lofty, however, the birth-death rate as well as people no longer caring to even find work should off-set this figure in the coming months. We expect a 0% unemployment figure by 2015 according to our models...

We are figuring on starvation and suicides increasing the death rate part of ongoing models"; March 1, 2011 at 11:21 AM
I-Man said...: JAH is our refuge and strength, a very present help in trouble. Therefore we will not fear, though the earth should change, though mountains shake in the heart of the sea; though its waters roar and foam, though the mountains tremble with its tumult.

There is a river whose streams make glad the city of God, the holy habitation of the Most High. JAH is in the midst of the city; it shall not be moved; JAH will help it when the morning dawns.

The nations are in uproar, the kingdoms totter; he utters his voice, the earth melts.

The Lord of Hosts is with us; the God of Jacob is our refuge.

Come, behold the works of JAH; see what desolations he has brought on the earth. He makes wars cease to the end of the earth; he breaks the bow, and shatters the spear; he burns the shields with fire.

"Be still and know that I am JAH! I am exalted among the nations, I am exalted in the earth."

Psalm 46; March 1, 2011 at 11:22 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: "But you need to tell granny to spend her social security check on something useful as soon as she gets it in the mail..."

...of course, IF we manage to ignite inflation, and we keep measuring the core as the basis for SS...and assuming granny won't get squat for her cd's then Bernanke keeps the hammer down on those too old to resume meaningful work...catfood on T,T, and every other Saturday...

...swell guy.; March 1, 2011 at 11:24 AM
CV said...: @Bruce

I don't want to make the mistake of even calling it INFLATION anymore...

It's "harder to procure physical goods"...

- If there's GROWTH, goods will be more expensive because there will be more competition in the supply/demand equation

- If there's another depression, goods will be more scarce because there will be greater difficulty in bringing them to market (due to lack of ECONOMIC INCENTIVE [profits] in doing so

Either way

"No soup for you!" - Soup Nazi; March 1, 2011 at 11:30 AM
CV said...: Might try eating that tradestation with a little TABASCO sauce (for added flavor)...; March 1, 2011 at 11:32 AM
I-Man said...: I got that triangle feeling...

Might be a good time to take a break.; March 1, 2011 at 11:32 AM
Jennifer said...: I-man -- my daughter read that very psalm last week at school...since I made her practice it aloud repeatedly it is stuck in my head now.; March 1, 2011 at 11:33 AM
Jennifer said...: This little dance between the 50 and 61.8% retrace on the SPX hourly chart is fascinating to me.; March 1, 2011 at 11:34 AM
karen said...: Sellputs
$GS insider trading galleon going around... stock dropping; March 1, 2011 at 11:35 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Deuteronomy 24:16

The fathers shall not be put to death for the children, nor shall the children be put to death for the fathers: every man shall be put to death for his own sin.

II Samuel 12:15-18

And Nathan departed unto his house. And the Lord struck the child that Uriah's wife bare unto David, and it was very sick.

David therefore besought God for the child; and David fasted and went in, and lay all night upon the earth.
Adn the elders of his house arose, and went to him, to raise him up from the earth: but he would not, neither did he eeat bread with them.

And it came to pass on the seventh day, that the child died.

...interesting, eh?; March 1, 2011 at 11:36 AM
karen said...: zerohedge
Former Goldman Sachs Board Member Rajat Gupta Charged By SEC With Insider Trading http://is.gd/XnIUOw; March 1, 2011 at 11:36 AM
AFIA said...: Note that long bond can't catch a bid here in spite of these little drops in equities. Not bullish TLT in the short term.; March 1, 2011 at 11:38 AM
karen said...: National Geographic
New Death Ritual Found in Himalaya—27 De-fleshed Humans http://on.natgeo.com/hCUFyI; March 1, 2011 at 11:41 AM
Anonymous said...: Rajat Gupta has been charged by the SEC with insider trading, related to the Galleon insider trading scheme. It seems, Gupta was also tipped off about Berkshire's $5 billion investment in Goldman.

Someone has been singing. Let's hope this continues !; March 1, 2011 at 11:43 AM
Lord Blankfiend said...: Raj who?

Don't know the fellow.; March 1, 2011 at 11:43 AM
bob said...: http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-04-10/fed-had-misgivings-about-friedman-s-goldman-stock-towns-says.html

I'll be impressed when he is in Jail.; March 1, 2011 at 11:45 AM
I-Man said...: @ Bruce

"Consider the work of JAH; who can make straight what he has made crooked?"

"In the day of prosperity be joyful, and in the day of adversity consider, JAH has made the one as well as the other, so that mortals may not find out anything that will come after them."

Ecclesiastes 7:13-14; March 1, 2011 at 11:45 AM
CV said...: Deuteronomy 24:16

The fathers shall not be put to death for the children, nor shall the children be put to death for the fathers: every man shall be put to death for his own sin.

---

Van Halen 19:84

"JUMP" (you f***ers)

Cv added that last part; March 1, 2011 at 11:51 AM
Jennifer said...: That was awesome. Back later :-); March 1, 2011 at 11:51 AM
Anonymous said...: @AFIA -- I thought you were in NZT for the yield? Ex-div was 2/22, which was the same day as the earthquake. I guess you bought it that day? You are clever....; March 1, 2011 at 11:51 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: .Bernanke: Inflation rise will be modest, temporary
11:42 am ET 03/01/2011 - MarketWatch Databased News
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke stuck his neck out on Tuesday and said the increase in inflation from the spike in oil prices will be modest and temporary.

"The most likely outcome is that the recent rise in commodity prices will lead to, at most, a temporary and relatively modest increase in U.S. consumer price inflation," Bernanke said in remarks to the Senate Banking Committee.

...Well, he sure got the housing thingy right...or the chance of recession...or SOMETHING!; March 1, 2011 at 11:53 AM
AFIA said...: I have a lot of NZT now, just trading around the core position.
We feel a bit heavy this morning.... will probably unload into a rally.

We did buy the earthquake, and the days after.
It's what we do.; March 1, 2011 at 11:55 AM
Anonymous said...: J. Crew shareholders approve $3B buyout deal
2 minutes ago

(AP:NEW YORK) Shareholders of preppy clothing seller J.Crew Group Inc. have approved a $3 billion deal to be taken private by two investment firms.

The $43.50-per-share buyout by private-equity firms TPG Capital and Leonard Green & Partners is expected to close on or near next Monday. J. Crew CEO Millard (Mickey) Drexler, the former Gap Inc. chief credited with turning J. Crew around since coming aboard in 2003, will remain with the company.

Questions about how the deal was negotiated by Drexler had raised concerns the deal might not be approved. Proxy advisory firm Institutional Shareholder Services last week had recommended against the deal.

Hedge fund Mason Capital Management's managing member Michael Martino wrote to J. Crew's board on Feb. 11 and asked it to hold out for a higher offer. The firm has a 7.5 percent stake in J. Crew, which is based in New York. They said they would vote against the offer, according to an SEC filing.

J. Crew began an 85-day "go shop" period after it agreed in November to be bought by TPG and Leonard Green. It extended the period by a month after settling a shareholder lawsuit challenging the acquisition. Even after the extension, J. Crew said it was in talks with some interested parties but did not receive any firm alternative bids...
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=68976777378000

ibid.; March 1, 2011 at 11:57 AM
CV said...: "The most likely outcome is that the recent rise in commodity prices will lead to, at most, a temporary and relatively modest increase in U.S. consumer price inflation," Bernanke said

Translation: Even though the cost of a porterhouse at Wolfgang's in NYC just went from $100 to $150, our bonuses ought to cover it...

Not sure about the rest of you...; March 1, 2011 at 12:00 PM
CV said...: Hmmm...

In this "sell off", silver and gold are at the HOD's... dollar flat...

NEW SAFETY Trade bitchez?; March 1, 2011 at 12:02 PM
CV said...: Bernanke at Humprey Hawkins...

"The Fed has tools needed to withdraw stimulus"

ror

"The Fed has TOOLS..."

There - fixed it!; March 1, 2011 at 12:05 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: If oil sells for Euros right now, and the Euro strengthens in the coming months, will this add to the risk of inflation here?

..hmmm?; March 1, 2011 at 12:09 PM
AFIA said...: Euro can't get stronger than 1.40. Not possible.
Stop drinking the DGDF Kool-Aid.

My divvy mix is solid today. CIM has been on a tear.; March 1, 2011 at 12:22 PM
karen said...: $Yoku saved by SEC's new short-selling rules? http://bit.ly/hIGoSj; March 1, 2011 at 12:26 PM
AmenRa said...: Welcome weekly 3LB mid. Glad you could make it.; March 1, 2011 at 12:26 PM
Anonymous said...: LOL.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_weekend/20110225/ts_yblog_weekend/i-kissed-a-bear-and-i-liked-it;_ylt=Av93l1UYGeSAKevRVQn09eNbbBAF;_ylu=X3oDMTE2Z2NndW9xBHBvcwM5BHNlYwN5bl9mZWF0dXJlZARzbGsDcmFxdW9odXJ0aWtp; March 1, 2011 at 12:27 PM
CV said...: "DGDF Kool-Aid"

Is that anything similar to?...

"I can't be out of money... See, right here, I still have a few checks in the checkbook"; March 1, 2011 at 12:27 PM
AmenRa said...: AFIA2BNL

That's what was said about the Fed monetizing debt also.; March 1, 2011 at 12:28 PM
Anonymous said...: http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=CIM

~4.30

CIM-Chart looked, and looks, waay better than NLY..

AAIP; March 1, 2011 at 12:28 PM
karen said...: CIM in sync with $DJR.. both down today.. NLY marches to it's own drummer.. but looking VERY H&S-ie to me so we shall see if a buying op comes up..; March 1, 2011 at 12:29 PM
AmenRa said...: Scotty: Capt'n I can't hold her together for much longer.

Kirk: Keep giving her all we got. I know you can do this Scotty.

Scotty: We've need more dilithium crystals or she's gonna blow!; March 1, 2011 at 12:35 PM
AFIA said...: The engines cannae tek it, Cap'n'

Nice...; March 1, 2011 at 12:39 PM
CV said...: On Wall Street, they use dilithium crystals AS blow...

Just ask the Ukranian hookers...; March 1, 2011 at 12:39 PM
Anonymous said...: Question for Ra:

YEOMAN JANICE RAND or KAREN?

Toughie but K gets my vote.; March 1, 2011 at 12:40 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: I myself don't believe the DGDF tripe. Just today we are up against the Uzbecki Kevlari..; March 1, 2011 at 12:40 PM
Captain Kirk said...: I went where no man has gone before...
More or less.; March 1, 2011 at 12:41 PM
Anonymous said...: DGDF sure, until the margin clerk comes calling, the debt collector knocks on the door and the local loan shark sends the boys round.

No payment in Uzbeki goat droppings accepted.
Gold watch, maybe.; March 1, 2011 at 12:43 PM
Matthew said...: Speaking of 3LB reversals...

Did you see the power move by emerging market sovereigns yesterday? Sometimes a line on a chart makes you look twice.

I wonder if the momentum acolytes will be pushing that to a short term trend.; March 1, 2011 at 12:45 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-28/vw-pushes-peugeot-into-european-price-war-as-market-contracts.html

VW Pushes Peugeot Into Price War as Europe Market Contracts

"Volkswagen is “lowering prices from a position of strength,” said Max Warburton, a London-based analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein. “Pricing took a hammering in the recession and apparently got worse in the fourth quarter, despite the tentative economic recovery.”

The European auto market is set to shrink for the fourth consecutive year in 2011 following the end of government incentives that boosted sales during the recession. Last year, Renault sold 63 percent of its cars in Europe, compared with 61 percent for Peugeot and Fiat’s 46 percent."; March 1, 2011 at 12:47 PM
AFIA said...: Welcome to my world, actually not my world, but the world I live among, between the cracks in the streets paved with gold:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-01/elite-manhattan-school-defies-old-prep-cartel-commentary-by-amity-shlaes.html

That's where TARP and POMO go. We really need another Bonfire of The Vanities, Part Deux. This island is rancid with corruption and greed, awash with narcissism and vanity.; March 1, 2011 at 12:48 PM
spoonman said...: A red first day of the month? Huh.; March 1, 2011 at 1:05 PM
karen said...: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/05-correlation-oil-stocks-indicative-market-top; March 1, 2011 at 1:06 PM
AFIA said...: I have talked about this often, about how we will see a replay of the 1960s which was really a generational war, only this time the Boomers will be the establishment. The point here about Egypt's revolt being entirely secular, and being a revolution against the gerontocracy, this is one we have made here repeatedly. People in the US don't see this yet but they will.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/03/connecting-the-dots-the-coming-war-between-generations/; March 1, 2011 at 1:07 PM
Cold Steel said...: A red first day of the month? Huh.

Not over yet.; March 1, 2011 at 1:08 PM
Anonymous said...: Not over yet.

neither is the correction; March 1, 2011 at 1:12 PM
Anonymous said...: Chinese corruption. Who knew?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12605826; March 1, 2011 at 1:18 PM
AmenRa said...: CV

You're right. The dollar is not the safe haven it used to be.; March 1, 2011 at 1:19 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-01/elite-manhattan-school-defies-old-prep-cartel-commentary-by-amity-shlaes.html

Howard Buffett Interview on Berkshire, Food Inflation

...somebody in this family needs to take a PE class...How can the wealthiest American family wind up looking like poster children for diabetes, knee replacements, hypertension...

CV, I deal with this in some fashion every day...I just don't get it. How can you be smart enough to be a billionaire and wind up like these men?; March 1, 2011 at 1:20 PM
AmenRa said...: EEM bearish engulfing of a doji day? Ruh roh.; March 1, 2011 at 1:23 PM
AmenRa said...: Bruce

See what happens when you don't have to chase it?; March 1, 2011 at 1:24 PM
I-Man said...: I'd be willing to say the correction is over...

But if I'm wrong, I dont care.

:P; March 1, 2011 at 1:25 PM
AmenRa said...: SPX keep trying to find support at 1% down (1313.94). The first was 1320.58 (or 0.5% down). That failed. There was just a 3rd test of 1%. Let's see if it holds. If not then hello 1307.31 (-1.5%).; March 1, 2011 at 1:28 PM
AmenRa said...: n/m too late; March 1, 2011 at 1:29 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Amen:

Yes, I guess you are right about that...and over the last few years we've heard, including fellow miners, that obesity is a "disease". Er, not in the 1800's and 1900's..it is just a result of those who no longer had to say, plow for a living, just becoming part of the furniture...; March 1, 2011 at 1:29 PM
I-Man said...: I will say with confidence that if you do believe the correction is completed, and you want to get long for a swing trade, this is probably right about where you want to get in...

I dont have any fib's up, but it sure looks like a 50% retrace of the move off the low, right here. (On YM anyway); March 1, 2011 at 1:30 PM
Jennifer said...: AFIA -- haven't read your Manhattan link yet, but I have childhood friends whose kids go to the Dalton school. Kindergarten is more than $25K/yr. Higher years are in the neighborhood of 40k I believe.; March 1, 2011 at 1:44 PM
Jennifer said...: While out and about, I heard that the noon business program (radio) was planning on discussing the "up on the first day of the month" phenomenon. Sounds like "crude Thursdays" to me!; March 1, 2011 at 1:52 PM
CV said...: @Bruce (1:29)

I said last week... I probably burned more calories prepping the soil for the spring planting than I'll EAT from what it ends up producing in those sq. meters...

@I-Man (1:30)

My instincts tell me you are correct there...

@AFIA

"No payment in Uzbeki goat droppings accepted"...

OMG - I'm screwed then!; March 1, 2011 at 1:57 PM
Jed Clampett said...: Sounds like "crude Thursdays" to me...

---

And then one day I was shootin' at some food & up thru the ground came a bubblin' crude...

Sing it! I know you know the melody...; March 1, 2011 at 1:58 PM
I-Man said...: If the market wasnt such a pro at looking like its doing one thing, and actually setting up another, then this would all be a LOT easier...

It knows what we watch... and what we look for...; March 1, 2011 at 2:01 PM
Mr Market said...: We are just f*cking with you, and we will gun it tomorrow.; March 1, 2011 at 2:04 PM
Brian Sack said...: I am still lurking, remember.; March 1, 2011 at 2:04 PM
Cold Steel said...: Me too.; March 1, 2011 at 2:05 PM
AFIA said...: Look at the front end !!!

2y at 0.66% is a YOURS... unless they know something.; March 1, 2011 at 2:06 PM
AFIA said...: Jennifer,

Dalton is around the corner from my hovel. The mommys (skillfully avoids use of distasteful epithet) gather at the bakery on the corner for coffee and cake.; March 1, 2011 at 2:08 PM
CV said...: Rest well my sheep... It's all going according to plan...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Ben-Bernankes-plan-worked-apf-145188226.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=; March 1, 2011 at 2:11 PM
Jennifer said...: My hovel was at 34th & Park, not far from all the good Indian eats on Lex in the low 30s. I miss Dumpling King -- asian guys don't deliver dumplings to your door in less than 10 min 24 hrs a day in the Chicago 'burbs.; March 1, 2011 at 2:11 PM
I-Man said...: But if we keep seeing this, then we could be in for a bit more than expected...; March 1, 2011 at 2:15 PM
AFIA said...: Look at $gaso. That's some PPI and CPI right there, Bruce. Yer dern tootin'.. looking at today's action, how can you not sell bonds?

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/von%20havenstein/AAA%20Gas.jpg

If this keeps up we would probably have a punt with SPY for a few days, and unload some AGG. This is for a trade, you understand. Between ADP/claims/NFP there is ample opportunity for F/I whackage.; March 1, 2011 at 2:20 PM
I-Man said...: One things for certain, given the slugfest slop we've seen over the last two hours, someone is destined for a hurtin...; March 1, 2011 at 2:22 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Well, I 'splained some of my theories the other day, and too much gnashing of teeth here to suit me.

Let me just say that I will be interested to see how the western economies perform as the government spending gets reined in..; March 1, 2011 at 2:24 PM
AFIA said...: Crude nudging up to resistance again.

How about dollar up, crude down, stocks up and bonds sell off tomorrow through Friday?

ADP weak - stocks up on QE (infinity)
ADP strong - stocks up on THE RECOVERY
ADP wishy washy - stocks up on GOLDILOCKS; March 1, 2011 at 2:25 PM
AFIA said...: B in T: $gaso, $wtic, PPI, CPI all temporary.

But right now it is a great trade to sell bonds, here.; March 1, 2011 at 2:26 PM
Anonymous said...: TLT cannot get past 92.

What is selling today? Banks? Retail? Tech?; March 1, 2011 at 2:28 PM
AmenRa said...: Anon

TLT is ex-div today. That's all. It'll be back above 92 in a jiffy.; March 1, 2011 at 2:30 PM
AmenRa said...: NFW the .1459 fibo is 1307.86 and the SPX stopped at 1307.88. YGBFKM; March 1, 2011 at 2:31 PM
Jennifer said...: Cramer is pumping gold right now. Thinks its going to 1550.; March 1, 2011 at 2:34 PM
I-Man said...: This is limbo...

A lot of folks wont trade the long side until we see real buying...

A lot of folks wont short until we see a decent retrace...

So, if you're short, congratulations, if not... you're sitting tight.; March 1, 2011 at 2:35 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Oil and gold,
oil and gold,
Fit together like a horse and carriage,
Any time or weather,

You can't have one without the oooooother....

...or somethin' like that...look at them go! Sprints like this and they can be in the summer olympics!

(Did I tell you gas is already up 28 cents here in 2.5 weeks...I know...I know...); March 1, 2011 at 2:36 PM
AFIA said...: Nice call Jennifer and anyone else who shorted yesterday.
Very good technical call.; March 1, 2011 at 2:37 PM
AmenRa said...: Are the circuit breakers off??? Is is time to call K-A-T-H-E-R-I-N-E???; March 1, 2011 at 2:37 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Could we call this price action a "gas ceiling"?

(apologies to NOW.....); March 1, 2011 at 2:39 PM
Anonymous said...: The interesting thing is, Bruce, the supermarket chains and the small biz guy have little to no pricing power so they are just being bent over by the Wizard again.

A little unwind of DGDF, OGUF would be bullish for equities tomorrow, and it only takes a job or two to get the bovines excited.; March 1, 2011 at 2:39 PM
CV said...: OT

But according to the FARMERS ALMANAC...

Today is a good day to "castrate farm animals"... So put that on your agenda of THINGS TO DO today if you have some spare time...; March 1, 2011 at 2:39 PM
Jennifer said...: Thanks, AFIA. Sometimes its better to be lucky than good.; March 1, 2011 at 2:39 PM
ben22 said...: today looks just like figure 1-16 on page 37 of the most recent EWP book.

Diagonal; March 1, 2011 at 2:40 PM
Jennifer said...: Wanna see a sad chart? Check out DLB.; March 1, 2011 at 2:41 PM
karen said...: hmm on FXA.. seems to be a real tricker.. FXE backing down a bit too.

upp still utterly pathetic, however.; March 1, 2011 at 2:43 PM
Jennifer said...: Its 11 points back up to ES VWAP. Thinking about going long.; March 1, 2011 at 2:44 PM
CV said...: @karen

"upp" (or UUP, as the case may be), is a CASTRATED FARM ANIMAL; March 1, 2011 at 2:45 PM
Bucky the Talking Currency said...: They always beat me mercilessly the day before ADP.
Because they can.; March 1, 2011 at 2:47 PM
CV said...: Megaphones bitchez!

SPX will see 1300 tomorrow, then ramp again...; March 1, 2011 at 2:47 PM
Jennifer said...: When oil finally comes down, how hard will the SPX get hit? Oil up must be helping hold SPX up somewhat right?; March 1, 2011 at 2:48 PM
AFIA said...: Thinking about going long.

We are almost certainly taking a punt from the long side.
Hope that doesn't put anyone off !; March 1, 2011 at 2:48 PM
Anonymous said...: When oil finally comes down, how hard will the SPX get hit?

It won't. Oil would have to be hammered by $5-10 to get a big BUCKY spike that would reverse dollar carry trades and cause market mayhem. It even takes a big drop in oil for the energy complex to sell off.; March 1, 2011 at 2:50 PM
AFIA said...: Chelsea v Man U game on. Massive.
No wonder AT is otherwise engaged.; March 1, 2011 at 2:52 PM
Jennifer said...: Thanks!; March 1, 2011 at 2:52 PM
Jennifer said...: I think this most recent (5-10 min) down move is just a retest of the top trendline on the now broken wedge.; March 1, 2011 at 3:05 PM
karen said...: well, 1308 just broke so now we can test the bottom trendline.. lod..; March 1, 2011 at 3:07 PM
AFIA said...: We are long. We sold AGG (a 5% bite).; March 1, 2011 at 3:07 PM
CV said...: The Saudis want $120 Brent (to pay for their largesse - I mean, "whore themselves out")...; March 1, 2011 at 3:07 PM
Anonymous said...: K

Looks like we will close red. You can't disappoint your fans...; March 1, 2011 at 3:10 PM
karen said...: okay, we are doing it.. making a new low on the spx..; March 1, 2011 at 3:10 PM
karen said...: SEC probes Fifth Third's commercial loans http://goo.gl/fb/Yvv5U; March 1, 2011 at 3:13 PM
karen said...: faz is such a bummer.. was 42+ the other day.. having trouble getting to 41 today..; March 1, 2011 at 3:13 PM
Jennifer said...: Much better to short FAS if you can get the borrow, the decay works in your favor that way.; March 1, 2011 at 3:15 PM
Jennifer said...: People must be starting to buy calls. Price of underlying isn't going up but call prices are.; March 1, 2011 at 3:17 PM
karen said...: excellent point, jennifer.; March 1, 2011 at 3:17 PM
karen said...: More mortgage lenders move foreclosures back into delinquent bucket: LPS http://goo.gl/fb/VJ; March 1, 2011 at 3:19 PM
AFIA said...: This is the same area we bounced from the other day.
1298-1307. You know they are going to JBTFD.

We have made some nice gains in F/I off the lows.
Look at LQD, AGG and ZROZ charts.

Not going back to the well with bonds for a week or so.; March 1, 2011 at 3:19 PM
karen said...: i wouldn't bet long the spx unless 1310.88 gets bettered..; March 1, 2011 at 3:23 PM
AFIA said...: This feels like a Bear trap. We have seen a few....; March 1, 2011 at 3:25 PM
karen said...: do check this link: and read side bar comments! green shoots? not!

More mortgage lenders move foreclosures back into delinquent bucket: LPS http://goo.gl/fb/VJ; March 1, 2011 at 3:26 PM
Jennifer said...: http://www.stocktiming.com/Tuesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

Dollar Status; March 1, 2011 at 3:32 PM
Bucky the Talking Currency said...: Yes, big moment for me this week.; March 1, 2011 at 3:34 PM
karen said...: Love this fellows videos.. the aussie one was really good and it did break down a bit today:

http://www.youtube.com/user/marketvisiontv?feature=mhum; March 1, 2011 at 3:38 PM
ben22 said...: Ra,

looks like we'll get a bearish engulfing today
bounced slighly off the 61.8 retrace of the 2/24 through today move, need to make a higher low right now and reverse into tomorrow.

because of the form I think I observe today SPY could bounce well next day or so, but the correction is not likely over.; March 1, 2011 at 3:38 PM
karen said...: thanks jennifer, hadn't been to stocktiming in a while.. that was a good, simple chart..; March 1, 2011 at 3:42 PM
AFIA said...: because of the form I think I observe today SPY could bounce well next day or so, but the correction is not likely over.

That's my read. We get 2-3 days of bounce. Although when we get back to selling it will be EEM that we will sell.; March 1, 2011 at 3:43 PM
Anonymous said...: It's about time for a visit from; March 1, 2011 at 3:45 PM

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This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.

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Morning Corner 3.1.11

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