A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.
Creditcane™: They're deploying countermeasures to limit my abilities.
SPXBearish short day (was a long day until the last 20 min). Midpoint above EMA(10). Failed SMA(21). Tested and held the 14.6% retrace (1319.09). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1340.43). Closed below daily 3LB mid. QE2infinity. JBTFD?
DXYSpinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Way below the 14.6% retrace (77.54). Below all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 76.89). Needs a new number to contact Safety-Havens-R-US.
VIXBullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below SMA(144). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 15.81). Back in the "no fear" zone. Currently does not have a monthly 3LB reversal.
GOLDBullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace. Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1414.00). Still above upper trend line. Must have the precious.
EURUSDSpinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above 1.3891 (the 61.8% retrace). Above all SMA's. Holding above 1.3782 (fibo .09). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.3805).
JNKBearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Failed SMA(21). Holding above its 50.0% retrace (40.47). Still below lower trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.78).
IQIBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below all SMA's. Above its 23.6% retrace (11.68). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 12.30). Failed to close above its weekly 3LB mid (11.76).
10YR YIELDBearish long day. No test of 0.0% retrace at 37.44. Back below SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Back below the 14.6% retrace (35.38). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 34.14).
SILVERBullish long day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace. Well above upper trend line. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 33.83). Ring ring. Margin call.
WTIBullish long day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 98.10). Had a weekly 3LB reversal up.
TLTBullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Held SMA(21). Above lower trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 92.40). Currently does not have a monthly 3LB reversal (down).
BKXBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below SMA(55). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 53.10). Tested and held weekly 3LB reversal price.
LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT
The Bond Report 3.4.11
Yesterday's big sell-off was reversed. The 2y had touched 80 bps and promptly reversed and scooted down to 67 bps. For THE FUN.
Munis are weak again and we wouldn't go there if they were wearing a short dress and carrying a plate of chocolate chip cookies.
TIPS, MBS and EM bonds were all reasonably strong today. The charts for TLT are becoming a lot more constructive, as I am sure AR will demonstrate. Auctions ahead, so supply will lead to some weakness in 10y and 30y most likely. If Gaddafi pops his clogs or goes on a one way camel ride into the Sahara, the relief rally will hit Treasuries hard.
Corpies: LQD 0.35%; AGG 0.28%; JNK -0.32%; HYG -0.21%
Govies: TLT 0.78%; IEI 0.57%; TIP 0.61%
Munis: IQI -1.10%; MUB -0.33%
Mortgages: MBB 0.28%
Specialty: ZROZ 0.27%; TBT -1.58%; EMB 0.50%
We stayed hedged in fixed income and we added some SPY. Crude is not in short supply, this spike is going to end, and when it does investors are going to BUY BUY BUY stocks, making it a great time to SELL SELL SELL. We still don't see a 4% 10y, not that we wouldn't love it. The weaker the auctions the better this week, we will be buying and would love to see a 3.65% 10y or a 4.75% 30y for example.
30 comments:
Wanna buy some munis, big guy?
http://www.tvpredictions.com/hotfarisswim.jpg
@Andy T:
"Well, the Brent curve is in backwardation and the WTI curve has been strengthening for a few weeks now. Today, Sep/Oct WTI flipped into backwardation...we may be "awash" in oil, but the market structure is not suggesting that right now"
Perhaps I don't understand the futures market the way you do.
The way I learned it, backwardation is the natural result of producers hedging prices more aggressively than consumers.
So, if these markets are flipping into backwardation, this indicates expected weakness in oil prices by producers. This would be the opposite of what we had in 2008, where speculators and consumers were hedging more aggressively than producers (resulting in extreme contango).
Please correct me if I am wrong. I come here to learn from you vets.
AR -- love the "20 minutes from hell" bullish pattern description.
Have a good weekend everyone!
Jennifer
I was watching TICKS and they were stuck over 600 for minutes on end. That isn't normal.
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=CIM
Fixxy,
Chart looks constructive, you still like CIM ?
@~4.24 ?
AAIP
Matthew.
Classic question there.
Here's a few 'axioms' of oil trading:
If you're bullish oil, "buy structure"...don't buy 'flat price.' If a market is truly bullish, it will reveal itself in 'structure' ultimately. The front of the market will get stronger relative to the back of the market (maybe even flip into backwardation).
If you're bearish oil, "short stucture"...don't sell 'flat price." IOW, the exact opposite of the above paragraph.
Crude structure and 'flat price' have NOTHING to do with each other....
When market structure strengthens, it's a sign of FUNDAMENTAL strength. When the market structure weakens, it's a sign of FUNDAMENTAL weakness.
The "conundrum" that vexes the punters is that that movement in structure has NOTHING to do with the direction of the 'flat price' of oil.
We've seen $40 oil in "backwardation" (strong) and $100 oil in "contango" (weak).
I know that doesn't help much...but, if you can absorb those ideas, then you're ahead of the game compared to most.
Bottom Line: The "future" price of oil does NOT EVER predict what the future price oil will be.
On a personal note this weekend...
ROUGH day for the AT household. The youngest daughter, after months of hard work and preparation, did NOT make the 7th grade Cheerleading squad, but most of her friends DID.
Parenting sucks.
The girl is actually pretty good and cute as hell....just too many girls trying for too few spots. In the grand scheme of things, it's small stuff and sort of silly, but it's tough to see disappointment in the face of your child.
Have a feeling parents (especially mothers) take these things harder than the kids.
Have some sudden committments this AM (so no WEEKEND THREAD)...
Sorry :-(
CV
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-04/cotton-gains-to-record-heads-for-biggest-weekly-advance-in-three-months.html
Cotton Futures Soar to Record on `Worldwide Scramble' for Limited Supplies
I was also doing some research last night on Lefty's family tree...searching back as far as I could find....and I ran into this:
http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/03/05/exclusive-nasa-scientists-claims-evidence-alien-life-meteorite/
Scientist Claims Evidence of Alien Life on Meteorite
...it has to be true,'cause no other human I've ever met says "bloke"...
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/06/world/europe/06italy.html?_r=1
Libya Unrest Holds Threat of Economic Toll for Italy
..not pigs, pIigs...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-05/libyan-rebels-claim-another-oil-hub-in-day-of-clashes-with-qaddafi-forces.html
Libya's Rebels Claim Another Oil Hub in Day of Clashes
“We can’t be naive about the changes that are taking place in the Middle East,” Obama said late yesterday at a dinner in Florida, according to a White House transcript. While it’s a dangerous time for the region, “it’s also a huge opportunity for us because America is built on liberty and innovation and dynamism and technology,” he said.
...OK, I read that 3 times. Then I came back to the Bard...
"That struts and frets his hour upon the stage
And then is heard no more: it is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing."
...2 cents.
Andy(1:44),
I know what you mean. It's hard to take the disappointment in moment, but encourage her to look at it positively. She's young and there are millions of opportunities ahead for her to shine. And she will, no doubt, with the backing of a father like you.
people, if they're totallt unaware of these 'Topics', might do well to spend some time reading..
http://cryptogon.com/?p=20826
LSS: the more one knows..
AAIP
AT,
this: "..encourage her to look at it positively. She's young and there are millions of opportunities ahead for her to shine..", strikes me as sound..
also, try to make sure that she has 'other things to do..'
Martial Arts, 4-H, Gymnastics, Hoop, Softball...
as ex.
with the Idea: ~"If she's, otherwise, occupied, she'll have less to time to fret.."
but, at the EOD, right now, yes, I can see how ~it would 'Blow' ..
ibid.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8363320/Bank-of-England-chief-under-fire-after-warning-Britain-is-at-risk-of-another-financial-crisis.html
--------------------------------------------------
Tell the 'common sense' truth and get savaged.
And this dude is a BIG SHOT.
Where did I leave those damn rose-colored glasses?
foghorn
Mervyn King said that “imbalances” in the banking system remain and are “beginning to grow again”.
But leading economists, including a former Tory advisor and the chief executive of the British Bankers' Association, have criticised his comments.
Tim Congdon, who served on the Treasury Panel of Independent Forecasters (the so-called "wise men") under the last Conservative government, called the remarks "unjustified".
He said: "The truth is the financial sector is very important to the British economy. He's been at the Bank of England for twenty years... I find it incredible that he's now attacking the structure of the industry.
"If you criticise the banks you reduce their credibility and then people worry about them. The important thing for the Governor of the Bank of England is to help them."
-----------------------------------------------------
Oh, but where to begin,
there is an entire novel of satire material above.
foghorn
Suppose that every day, ten men go out for beer and the bill for all ten comes to $100...
If they made the beer the way beer actually gets made, the first four would grow the hops, the fifth and sixth would brew it, the seventh and eighth would distribute it, the ninth would manage everybody, and the tenth (the richest) would do nothing.
The tenth would drink all he wanted.
The ninth would drink the best of what was left.
The seventh and eighth could afford a pint.
The fifth and sixth would get a bottle.
The first four (the poorest) would be lucky to get a sip.
One day the richest man got mad and said, "This system exploits the rich!" because he had to pay more for as much as he could drink than the poor had to pay for their sips.
So he moved off to a island by himself, where he realized it's not money that makes beer, but people, and without workers he was nothing but a fat slob who doesn't know how to do anything for himself.
The next night the nine went out for beer, and realized that without the rich guy, there was more beer for everyone else, and they didn't have to work any harder than before.
Which is why we're better off without the rich, and why we should encourage them - if they're not happy being Americans - to go and live somewhere else.
--------------------------------------------------
Haha
foghorn
@Andy-
Thanks for the futures interpretation.
http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/03/euro-and-yen-surprising-developments.html
Good breakdown of current correlations.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-petruno-20110305,0,4894306.column
Is inflation wolf at the door?
Bruce
You can't have inflation when they are sucking money out of the economy, at the local level.
They can have price spikes, like we are experiencing now and in the short term future, but if the bucks aren't out there via wages, these will be short term events.
As has been pointed out, Cushing OK is awash in gasoline, so much so they are exporting it. Yet locally it is/was 3.69 yesterday.
Hello STAGFLATION.
On I-20 yesterday on the road to Dallas, every retailer that had to take inventory had it stacked everywhere except on the roof. We are talking travel trailers, out buildings, utility trailers, farm equipment, cars and trucks. Is this inflationary?
You want to know what is booming out here? Travel trailer parks with LONG term parking. Stacked in gill to gill.
No purchasing power, tons of inventory, I am no economist for damn sure, but that looks like stagflation to me.
foghorn
Is inflation wolf at the door?
"Interviewed on CBS in December, Bernanke said he had '100%' confidence in his ability to make the right moves at the right time.
"When was the last time any of the rest of us felt 100% confident about anything?"
when was the last time the bernank was right about anything?
@Bruce (8;36)
ha!
Ironically - If the degree of 'hyperinflation' happens that Mr. TRADER VIC describes, why the hell would anyone want to mess around with paper wheat, or PM prices???
A better bet would be to get into hock up to your eyeballs... Buy real estate (farmland), and the biggest, most lavish things you think you can afford the monthly nut on...
Then you pay back the PAPER debt on those things for pennies on the dollar...
It's the PAPER (and the "creditors") that get wiped out in hyperinflation...
Plus - you need enough physical (food, PM's, barterable goods), to get you through the process...
The old "Reichsmark" was finally pegged at one trillion to one Rentenmark on November 15, 1923...
The stock market (in Germany) did GREAT in 1921 & 1922...
In any case Bruce...
What I described above is only a good strategy if you KNOW that the so-called "hyperinflation" is going to happen (which, of course, you DO NOT)...
So if you enact that strategy, and instead, the INFLATION manages to manifest itself as it did between 1962 and 1968... You're stuck paying the tab (making the monthly NUT payments with an agonizingly slow depletion of what is also eating in to EARNING POWER (mostly because your spare earnings are being eaten away by the cost of everyday things - NOT the service payments on the debt for things that will probably NEVER be paid without the hyperinflation)...
So the ultimate HEDGE is, as always...
- land
- food
- PM's
- basic materials
all the usual suspects...
I've said before... The BANKS are going to end up fine here (assuming they can kick the can down the road long enough to get the liens for all the property they made loans on back in their hands)... Their main problem is a "paperwork" backlog... Assuming they can successfully do that... They'll enjoy their futures as the biggest landlords the world has ever seen...
http://www.eyewitnesstohistory.com/20frm.htm
This is one of the coolest sites I've been on.
This is the 20th Century page.
foghorn
----------------------------------------
http://www.eyewitnesstohistory.com/crash.htm
"This was real panic."
Jonathan Leonard was a reporter who was on the scene as Wall Street tumbled. We join his story following "Black Thursday."
"That Saturday and Sunday Wall Street hummed with week-day activity. The great buildings were ablaze with lights all night as sleepy clerks fought desperately to get the accounts in shape for the Monday opening. Horrified brokers watched the selling orders accumulate. It wasn't a flood; it was a deluge. Everybody wanted to sell-the man with five shares and the man with ten thousand. Evidently the week-end cheer barrage had not hit its mark....
---------------------------------------------
The Wall Street Crash, 1929
CV
Give me some good pasta recipes.
What kind of flour, etc.
Thanx
foghorn
http://tinyurl.com/4khqwhw
Bank of England governor Mervyn King 'out of touch', says City
Senior City figures last night reacted with anger to Mervyn King's forthright attack on the financial services sector, calling his suggestion that banks routinely exploit millions of customers an "insult".
Bankers, businessmen and economists joined together to dismiss the bulk of the Bank of England Governor's comments, with some even questioning whether he should remain in his post.
One senior banking source, at one of the UK's top five banks, went so far as to brand Mr King "an embittered old man with no appreciation of reality".
The anger follows an interview the Governor gave to The Daily Telegraph yesterday, in which Mr King said that the finance industry needs urgent reform and that there is a risk of a second banking crisis.
You knew it wouldn't be long before the reaction following King's comments
for those that don't 'get' "Libertarian" viewpoint/philosophy, this..
http://www.lewrockwell.com/peters-e/peters-e25.1.html
is a good example/intro to it..
AAIP
Foghorn,
I went to a Cow/Calf Auction, up here, last Wednesday..
saw a good 1/2 hour of the 'Calf only'-Sale..
some of those dudes went for less than 40 cents/lb.
many under 60 cents..
max. ~85-90 cents..
these:
http://www.holsteinusa.com/
were them..
anyway, what kind of Pricing are you seeing in Tejas?
those struck me as, incredibly, Low..
ireland no iceland
('tis sad, but no surprise there)
independent.ie http://tinyurl.com/5ufpytb
Sunday March 06 2011
The Fine Gael/Labour coalition Government is to implement in detail the outgoing Government's four-year austerity plan as approved by the EU-IMF, the Sunday Independent can reveal.
In what will amount to the most barefaced breach of election promises ever perpetrated by an incoming Government, the coalition partners' programme for government will cause uproar when it is published today.
While an attempt will be made to dress up the programme as a new plan by a new Government, when it is analysed it will be seen for what it is -- the continuation of the economic policies of Fianna Fail and the Greens, virtually in minute detail, as laid down by the EU-IMF.
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