TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Corner 3.11.11

Morning Corner 3.11.11

Oh no! There Goes Tokyo!

Copper (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=up
high= 4.596
rev= 4.176; mid= 4.386

Last weeks candle looked like there was some indecision. This week cleared it up. It's weak as it's below the weekly 3LB mid. The question is whether there will be a reversal this week. If there is then that's the canary in the coal mine for stocks.

90 Day UST (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 0.090
rev= 0.170; mid= 0.130

Weekly 3LB is finally making a confirming low. Looking at the daily chart yesterdays dive is further indication that the Fed will not touch rates. So QE2 will end and the Fed will keep ZIRP going.

Bear Analyst versus Ten Bullish Analysts...

312 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 1 – 200 of 312 Newer› Newest»

M E Hoffer said...: re: the 'Red Metal'

it'll be interesting to see if the 'Japan (Earthquake) Rebuilding' gets spun as + for Cu ...

though, at the EOD, given the rest of what 'the Market' is, finally, 'realizing'/'admitting to', seems that the, total, Cu 'story' is negative..

AAIP; March 11, 2011 at 7:32 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/112267/6-costs-you-should-always-negotiate?mod=bb-budgeting

Crude Realities
by Jeremy Siegel
Tuesday, March 1, 2011

"Oil is still the cheapest fuel for transportation, but the efficiency of other sources, such as electric and natural gas, are catching up. A surge in gasoline prices would hasten the development of more efficient gasoline engines and alternative-energy vehicles, which would help the U.S. gain energy independence. I do not want to see $8 or $10 a gallon gasoline in the U.S., but the truth is that gasoline costs this much in Europe; despite these high prices the core of the euro zone, particularly Germany, is booming.

The bottom line is that, if the disruptions in oil supply are limited to Libya and a few other oil-producing nations, there will be no debilitating impact of world growth."

...This professor of economics wrote this, therefore it must be true. I see this at times in my profession. The Texans have a saying "Big Hat, No Cattle"...pretty much sums it up.

Will the unemployed Greek absorb these higher energy prices like the professor who walks to class? Probably not.; March 11, 2011 at 7:35 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://illusionofprosperity.blogspot.com/2011/03/does-jeremy-siegel-live-in-cave.html

Does Jeremy Siegel Live in a Cave?; March 11, 2011 at 7:40 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-11/oil-plunges-as-japan-s-refiners-shut-plants-after-8-9-magnitude-earthquake.html

Oil Plunges as Japan's Refiners Shut Plants After Earthquake

...Interesting article. In my tiny little coconut, it seems the shutdown of the refineries could just as easily trump the decreased demand, assuming that it actually decreases...; March 11, 2011 at 7:45 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-11/bond-market-anticipates-greece-defaulting-as-eu-leaders-meet-euro-credit.html

Bond Market Anticipates Greece Defaulting as EU Leaders Meet: Euro Credit; March 11, 2011 at 7:47 AM
CV said...: Hmmm...

33 N latitude...

- Algeria
- Tunisia
- Libya
- Iraq
- Japan
- San Clemente, California; March 11, 2011 at 7:47 AM
CV said...: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latitude_33_degrees_N; March 11, 2011 at 7:48 AM
CV said...: The Louisiana Territory was that part of the 1803 Louisiana Purchase which lay north of the 33rd parallel.; March 11, 2011 at 7:49 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-11/china-s-february-consumer-prices-rise-4-9-exceeding-government-s-target.html

China Inflation, Factory Output Exceed Forecasts, Add Tightening Pressure

"Today’s reports signaled the central bank’s monetary tightening has been insufficient so far to contain prices, in an echo of pressures across Asia that spurred South Korea, Thailand and Vietnam to raise interest rates this week. People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said today interest rates will be used to curb inflation, and played down the role of currency gains, which U.S. officials have encouraged China to use."; March 11, 2011 at 7:50 AM
Anonymous said...: Quake porn..

http://poleshift.ning.com/profiles/blogs/11-march-2011-northern-japan

ibid.; March 11, 2011 at 7:55 AM
Anonymous said...: wow on the earthquake, didn't know if that was real at first, then I see google has the big tsunami alert. that descending triangle broke while I was sleeping too, may as well just sleep during the day anymore, everything happens overnight.

and today is the Saudi demonstration yes?

social mood......; March 11, 2011 at 7:57 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: It seems now, a couple of years after the Great Recession began, that we have much greater disequilibrium than then. Greek austerity, and a one month deficit in the US larger than the 2007 yearly deficit. Uncertainty in the Middle East. Massive lack of leadership on the budget. Apparently no real increase in employment, certainly in the non-government polls like Gallup. Titans of investing refunding money and selling just before the largest profits of the year could be made.

...Meanwhile I have the day off. Probably be in the mountains later...can't wait....; March 11, 2011 at 7:57 AM
CV said...: Times for the tsunami waves to hit Hawaii & the US West coast...

http://dawnwires.com/politics/tsunami-will-hit-these-countries-at-given-times-share-as-soon-as-possible/; March 11, 2011 at 7:59 AM
CV said...: Newport Beach, California 0845 PST MAR 11 1645 UTC MAR 11

the California-Mexico border 0854 PST MAR 11 1654 UTC MAR 11; March 11, 2011 at 8:02 AM
AmenRa said...: CV

Add your videos to the end of the post. I don't have the admin privi's.; March 11, 2011 at 8:20 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://english.aljazeera.net/video/

...amazing video; March 11, 2011 at 8:28 AM
Anonymous said...: damn social mood causing earthquakes and shit- people just need to cheer up

CV- caught your post from yesterday- all those british coins were copper-

I had some Chinese coins . . .not sure what they were made out of . . .almost felt like plastic-

one coin was worth .017 US cent; March 11, 2011 at 8:31 AM
Anonymous said...: "Retail Sales Rise Less Than Expected Up 1.0%; Core 0.7%, in Line With Estimates"- CNBC

if it's in line with estimates- how can it be less than expected???

a curious man wants to know; March 11, 2011 at 8:36 AM
CV said...: HAARP bitchez!; March 11, 2011 at 8:39 AM
Anonymous said...: could all these calamities be the result of a Super Moon?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/theweek/20110308/cm_theweek/212899

some think so; March 11, 2011 at 8:43 AM
CV said...: gnomes; March 11, 2011 at 8:47 AM
Anonymous said...: for those not in the know (like me):

HAARP = High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program

When I saw CV's post I instantly thought of an ice cold Harp beer; March 11, 2011 at 8:48 AM
CV said...: Rapture bitchez! - ror

http://www.may-212011.com/

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pHCdS7O248g; March 11, 2011 at 8:50 AM
Anonymous said...: you know, as an aside..

http://co2psec.com/

I'm not sure why peep 'think' Bill Gates is "all that", re: his 'Foundation' ..

those that, still, do, should read some of..
http://search.yippy.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&v%3Aproject=clusty&query=Bill+Gates+Eugenics

to begin with..

ibid.; March 11, 2011 at 8:50 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: How much of the retail sales was gas?; March 11, 2011 at 8:52 AM
Jennifer said...: I'm becoming a believer in sunspots. As an aside, living in the flat land of eternal winter is pretty appealing this morning.; March 11, 2011 at 8:53 AM
Anonymous said...: oh, didn't mean to imply social mood caused the earthquake, that's sun spots......duh......winning!; March 11, 2011 at 8:53 AM
M E Hoffer said...: ahab,

re: 'Super Moon'

that 'Topic' came up on a 'Fast Money' episode that I caught ~last Week..

that Quiff, Finerman, for one, went out of her way to Mock it..

since then...

LSS: the 'Natural World' is, waay, bigger than Us/the most pressing/latest 'tweet', to begin with..

to be clear, she's a Twit..

AAIP; March 11, 2011 at 8:55 AM
Anonymous said...: b22-

are you winning here and winning there- bi-winning? LOL

check out my super moon link- maybe there is something to it; March 11, 2011 at 8:57 AM
Anonymous said...: ahab,

I have tiger blood, end of story.; March 11, 2011 at 8:57 AM
Anonymous said...: I'm not entirely kidding about the sun spots, was presented (that idea) here a few weeks ago, there have been quite a few natural disasters since that major sunspot blast.

I'm no scientist of course, but I do think the lunar cycle has some impact on markets, anyone that's ever mapped out things like new moon dates over charts could see they often come near secondary turning points. same with the full moon.; March 11, 2011 at 8:59 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.cnbc.com/id/42017453

Today's Selloff: The 'Unknown Unknowns'

By: Larry Kudlow
CNBC Anchor

...Yes, this is one of the few men you could sell sand to in the desert..; March 11, 2011 at 8:59 AM
Anonymous said...: Hoff-

I know she's long banks-

interesting that the Super Moon was a topic on Fast Money; March 11, 2011 at 9:00 AM
Anonymous said...: Thats real funny in re: Finerman/Fast $$

considering when Barry was on the other day she made a point to pound the table on her belief in BAC's mgmt claims that better earnings were ahead and they had a real "plan" for the business.

really funny, think about what she mocks and what she 'knows for sure'; March 11, 2011 at 9:01 AM
CV said...: @AAIP (8:50)

Tell me about it!...

And isn't it NICE that "Saint Warren" gets to "skip out" essentially on paying any INHERITANCE tax because he's donating all his money to the Gates Foundation...

Makes you wonder who's in bed here, and who's getting all the PROFITS in the end...

But of course I don't have anything to provide as backup on the possibility so it MUST NOT BE TRUE...; March 11, 2011 at 9:03 AM
CV said...: @ben22

Let's make a deal (you and me)...

I won't ask you to shuffle out any verifiable DIRECT LINKAGE of sunspots to markets, and you don't ask me to shuffle out any direct linkage to any of my theories...

:-); March 11, 2011 at 9:06 AM
Anonymous said...: b22-

to tell you the truth- the older I get the more I understand that there are many things out there I don't understand-

outside of maybe area 51- I don't reject anything out of hand; March 11, 2011 at 9:07 AM
CV said...: Frankly...

I think it's all these EARTHQUAKES which are causing the sunspots! - ror; March 11, 2011 at 9:08 AM
CV said...: ...and in the end... IT'S ALL BUSH'S FAULT!

-evidenced by the fact that all the earthquakes are happening along the "Bush Fault Line"; March 11, 2011 at 9:09 AM
Anonymous said...: oh . . .I forgot- I also reject out of hand mamby pamby feel good nonsense; March 11, 2011 at 9:10 AM
CV said...: @ahab

Area 51 = Isn't that the US "state" that Obama was born in?; March 11, 2011 at 9:11 AM
Anonymous said...: "I think it's all these EARTHQUAKES which are causing the sunspots! - ror"

... and HFT causes the earthquakes?
got it!; March 11, 2011 at 9:12 AM
CV said...: who needs "feel good nonsense"...

Hipocrisy is so much FUNNIER! :-); March 11, 2011 at 9:13 AM
Anonymous said...: CV

that's where you and I have to disagree-

Obama wasn't born-

he appeared; March 11, 2011 at 9:15 AM
Anonymous said...: cv--

like, one of the "57", he visited during the '008 Campaign?

ibid.; March 11, 2011 at 9:15 AM
Anonymous said...: on a serious note-

over/under on whether the dip will be bought today; March 11, 2011 at 9:16 AM
CV said...: @ahab

I dug up some more on the SUPER MOON theory...

http://www.examiner.com/celebrity-fitness-and-health-in-national/wow-is-kim-kardashian-s-butt-really-this-curvy-photos; March 11, 2011 at 9:17 AM
karen said...: good morning!!

ahab, i thot we could turn those coins in if we go to London and get current.. i've got 20 or so one pound coins, too.. dumb things.

shall i run down at 8 and watch for waves?; March 11, 2011 at 9:19 AM
Anonymous said...: ahab,

not sure 'which part' of "Area 51" you're referring to, but..

http://search.yippy.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&v%3Aproject=clusty&query=Area+51+Lockheed+%27Skunkworks%27

ibid.; March 11, 2011 at 9:20 AM
Anonymous said...: CV-

too much junk in that trunk for my taste- now if I was a brother- I'd be all over that-

because that baby's got back; March 11, 2011 at 9:20 AM
CV said...: Well wherever he was born (or appeared)...

The sugar mack daddy is holding a news conference today to tell us how HE is going to personally save the Japanese people, and how he's going to probably KICK SOME MORE ASS to get oil prices down...

The teleprompter is getting fired up as we speak...; March 11, 2011 at 9:21 AM
karen said...: oh this is horrible! Japan death toll mounts as 200-300 bodies are found in northeast coastal region
03/11/2011 08:56:19 AM; March 11, 2011 at 9:21 AM
CV said...: @karen

"shall i run down at 8 and watch for waves"

Yeah... do that... Tell us whether it's a 3 wave or a 5 wave structure...

ABC descending?

Also - give us the fib extensions between wavelets...; March 11, 2011 at 9:23 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: ..just the start Karen..; March 11, 2011 at 9:23 AM
AmenRa said...: Karen

Will the wave be a P3?; March 11, 2011 at 9:25 AM
Anonymous said...: Hoff-

just looking at the alien angle- Penn & Teller did a show on area 51 and busted the whole alien notion-

as an aside- I'd vote for Penn Jillette for Prez in a heartbeat

very libertarian; March 11, 2011 at 9:27 AM
Anonymous said...: oil going down because Japan can't use as much?; March 11, 2011 at 9:28 AM
Anonymous said...: . . .and he can juggle; March 11, 2011 at 9:28 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: 10 year bond 3.36!@

Gross may have pulled the biggest boneheaded grandstand of the decade!; March 11, 2011 at 9:30 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: 3 Mile Island in Japan?; March 11, 2011 at 9:31 AM
AmenRa said...: Well the 2/24 low has been taken out. Anyone shorting Japanese insurance companies?; March 11, 2011 at 9:32 AM
Anonymous said...: @ Karen

Maui bouy detected a 6' wave rise, SoCal shouldn't see but a few inches imo.; March 11, 2011 at 9:32 AM
CV said...: "oil going down because Japan can't use as much?"

That's what they tell you but I doubt it's that big a deal...

Markets are tanking all week and that means margin calls... The paper trades in PROFITS (oil, PM's, commodities) are being unwound...; March 11, 2011 at 9:34 AM
karen said...: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/11/japan-declares-nuclear-emergency-quake; March 11, 2011 at 9:35 AM
CV said...: @Amen

"Anyone shorting Japanese insurance companies?"

---

Should be shorting Euro bonds... it was they [JICS] who stepped up last year and lent Papa-do rag his money to buy him time for his AUSTERITY measures to kick in - ror; March 11, 2011 at 9:38 AM
18 said...: 1305... said earlier bears start to think they're in control

1296... said earlier in the week the buyers come into play

line in the sand is 1296, we close above?; March 11, 2011 at 9:39 AM
Anonymous said...: karen-
'
re the coins- not sure if you can exchange the old denomination for new coins-

the pound coins obviously you can spend at your leisure once in London; March 11, 2011 at 9:41 AM
CV said...: @ahab

I'd just want them for the copper...; March 11, 2011 at 9:42 AM
AmenRa said...: This early move in the market is a way of trying to say we're not affected by the problems in Japan. Such BS. Don't worry. The deluge this way comes.; March 11, 2011 at 9:44 AM
CV said...: I'd LOVE to see copper trade down to its 200MA...

I'd go into Home Depot and clear out the shelves of the plumbing department...; March 11, 2011 at 9:44 AM
ben22 said...: CV,

9 whatever

all joking aside, nah, not making that deal, I can produce charts of markets with sunspots mapped over and from that people could draw their own conclusions, I think it's pretty clear most people just reject it out of hand anyway, these aren't theories of mine either, they are mainly the thoughts of other people, or they are charts I've seen.

I don't bring many things up here I don't have a chart/data for, and I didn't say anything above about sunspots and markets anyway, I was talking about the moon, I've been putting new moon and full moon dates on charts for 5 years, pretty plain to see new and full moon magically falls on turns very often.

as I've said now for the infinite time, people can create whatever theory they like, they should have some data though to back it up, if i ask you for data it's more often than not because I have some interest in what you are saying and I want to look into for myself.; March 11, 2011 at 9:46 AM
CV said...: "This early move in the market is a way of trying to say we're not affected by the problems in Japan"

---

"This early move in the market is a way of trying to say the market is controlled by a bunch of HFT algos whose programs were written by pimply faced MIT dropouts [who never dealt with tsunami 'modelings' in their mathematical formulae]"

There...fixed it...; March 11, 2011 at 9:48 AM
karen said...: $bkx broke down.. : )

xlf is hit the floor too many times.. it's gonna break too..; March 11, 2011 at 9:48 AM
Anonymous said...: I had a hunch that morning dip would be bought; March 11, 2011 at 9:49 AM
karen said...: Philip Etienne
Japan is the 3rd largest economy, 4th largest exporter - and the 4th largest foreign owner of US securities/treasuries; March 11, 2011 at 9:50 AM
karen said...: ahab.. we are going to see 1275 today, no worries..; March 11, 2011 at 9:51 AM
karen said...: GERMANY, FRANCE SAID TO FIGHT BASEL BANK-LEVERAGE DISCLOSURES

dollar can't get a bid.. : (; March 11, 2011 at 9:52 AM
ben22 said...: The rush to attribute all market moves today and into next week to Japan is to be expected I suppose. Still, markets peaked out almost a month ago now.....

on the middle east, of course

they are not winning over there, no tiger blood in that heritage, only camel blood.; March 11, 2011 at 9:53 AM
karen said...: anyone catch that wikileaks item about aig and china?? i didn't understand it from the headline..; March 11, 2011 at 9:53 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicReleases/retail.htm

Gasoline stations 1.4% 1.3% 1.8% 4.1% 1.4%

...this is the breakdown of gas sales for the last 5 months...I suspect this won't turn out to be a positive...March should be even more impressive.; March 11, 2011 at 9:54 AM
AFIA said...: So many things happening.
Back later with some thoughts on Japan.; March 11, 2011 at 9:55 AM
Anonymous said...: b22-

fwiw- sunspots, moon phases, solar flares- I think they all have effects-

what effects I don't know-

I am still wondering if I am hurting the old noggin by using a cell phone all the time; March 11, 2011 at 9:55 AM
CV said...: @ben22 (9:46)

I just tease you about it to get some laughs...

You have to understand that I'm TRULY a data person myself... In my work, I could give you VOLUMES of research & study on human biology & chemistry, energy usage, metabolism, the whole shebang...

But my problem (like yours), is that I end up having to INTERFACE with a public whose eyes glaze over when I start to tell them the REAL WHY's of why they've "plateaued" after starting out so stringly on the p-90x program (or other program du jour)...

So when you've been down that road (or I should say, since "I've" been down that road so many times)... I tend to take the attitude of skipping to the chase and saying...

"just shut up & TRUST me on this one"; March 11, 2011 at 9:55 AM
AmenRa said...: UoM Consumer Sentiment aka call 250 people in the Hamptons and 250 people in Aspen.; March 11, 2011 at 9:55 AM
18 said...: ahhh Ben, grab a 10 day 5 min chart on the SPX, draw the 18 and 18.5 level lines on it, there's your data... then I apply my own strength of support and resistance to get my calls, albiet a little uncertian sometimes but it's not the holy grail... yet

:); March 11, 2011 at 9:56 AM
ben22 said...: ahab,

in reading blogs it would seem to me based our favorite gut feel indicator that lots of retail is in fact trying to buy the dip, pros seem more cautious. just my observation. just like the other day lots of them were looking for the triangle to resolve to the upside and were buying ahead of yesterday.

timer's digest reveals on hotline the other day that many of the top timers are getting sell signals now, several of these folks were up huge several years running now.

the institution buying and selling seems undecided as well and just recently showed the first distribution for 2011.

which group is right?; March 11, 2011 at 9:56 AM
karen said...: ben @ 9:53.. LOL.. i started to explain to my friend that the market was going to fall regardless of MENA but gave up quickly.. just let my voice trail off as i realized it's too difficult a concept for most to grasp..; March 11, 2011 at 9:57 AM
Anonymous said...: ahab.. we are going to see 1275 today, no worries..

karen- I am trying to be like I-Man- daytrading for pleasure and coinage-

with a zen like persona; March 11, 2011 at 9:57 AM
ben22 said...: CV,

I don't talk about this stuff anymore with people unless they really press me, then after that, in most cases, the convo ends pretty fast. So I get what you are saying.

18,

nice stuff, I've been running with neely quite a few months now, it's been a very good run so I'm still on this wave shizz.....I'm wave winning lately.; March 11, 2011 at 9:58 AM
AmenRa said...: I guess the Grey Poupon costs too much in the Hamptons.; March 11, 2011 at 10:00 AM
CV said...: @karen

dollar can't get a bid.. : (

---

While ONLY TIME WILL TELL... This is the theory that I've been putting out for quite awhile now...

Nobody seems to be RUNNING TO THE DOLLAR anymore as a RISK OFF trade... I know that it's holding up better than PM's today (but PM's have been all but ballistic lately)...

I think this is telling... That no matter what kind of market pullback we see here (and for what duration), the dollar is NOT going to see the spectacular rise (vis a vis 2008)...

And I think there WILL be a QE3 eventually (officially or unofficially), and when that happens, the dollar is going to get killed again...

That probably places me in a MINORITY (on this blog)...; March 11, 2011 at 10:02 AM
ben22 said...: nice visual from poster at Cobra's:

http://bbs.cobrasmarketview.com/download/file.php?id=764&sid=8ba9c577c046438fb195289b4c9c9b28&mode=view; March 11, 2011 at 10:05 AM
karen said...: we (in so cal) won't even have a perceptible boost:

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/46866/tsunami-waves-reaching-us-soil-1.asp; March 11, 2011 at 10:05 AM
karen said...: here you go, ben, it's not Japan at all:

U.S. stocks lose grip on modest gains after Univ. of Mich. sentiment data
03/11/2011 10:02:31 AM

but later this afternoon it will surely be Saudi.; March 11, 2011 at 10:06 AM
Anonymous said...: CV-

a viable future for Fed easing is on again off again-

just like Japan; March 11, 2011 at 10:07 AM
CV said...: lots of retail is in fact trying to buy the dip, pros seem more cautious. just my observation

My observation is similar - only I'd just add that the "pros" are only cautious until QE3 is announced... Just trying to figure out at what level that will be...

I said it the other day... From an EQUITY standpoint, I think that over the course of the next 3 months you'll see a LARGER triangle form...

The Bottom of the wedge will form from the 2009 low thru the 2010 low... The TOP will be the 2/18 high (and whatever the next plot point to that will be)...; March 11, 2011 at 10:07 AM
ben22 said...: oh yes, consumer sentiment data!

bwahahahahaha; March 11, 2011 at 10:08 AM
18 said...: Ben, I hear ya, stick with what works.

Numbers are fun...

18 goes into 1296, 2 X 18 goes into 1296, 3 X 18 goes into 1296, turn 18 around = 81, 81 also goes into 1296, 2 X 81 goes into 1296, could do stuff like this all day long and watch the SPX turn on or very near these prices so often, but does it really mean anything?

1278 is the next lower level, let's see what happens when/if we get there.; March 11, 2011 at 10:09 AM
karen said...: chet, for you: OBAMA TO ANSWER QUESTIONS ABOUT ENERGY PRICES, WHITE HOUSE SAYS; March 11, 2011 at 10:11 AM
ben22 said...: CV,

regarding your theory, I'd want to point out that the first QE was done before the market started to go up in august 2008, so people could say lag time, it worked. The second QE came after well over a year of rally, and didn't start getting implemented until markets had already gone up over 200 points on the S&P from last years lows.

I'm not so certain that "pros" trust QE3 will provide the same boost, it very clearly is having diminishing returns if you are a believer that it moves markets and most people believe exactly that.

the fed has made a tactical error in their timinig then on this last round, and why should we be surprised that BB got cocky, after all, he's TIME's man of the year, if they would have started QE2 right away in May 2010, it would be different, but they didn't.

So it's going to be really interesting to see how this plays out next, who will believe QE3 will work if we keep trending down now....political pressures are very clearly building, we should know what happens after that by looking to the Japan model.; March 11, 2011 at 10:13 AM
Anonymous said...: karen-

Obama only need utter 2 words:

electric cars LOL; March 11, 2011 at 10:13 AM
CV said...: @ahab

a viable future for Fed easing is on again off again

I wouldn't even term it "viable"... More like - they have no choice...

They have become the LARGEST holder of US Treasuries... With China 2nd (and really not interested in upping that stake)... And Japan??? Well it looks like they have their own problems here...

Pimco is also "out of the game"...

So who is going to fund the 1.5 Trillion for this year & next year???

Hell - the Fed wouldn't even be able to find any buyers for what they already have...; March 11, 2011 at 10:14 AM
karen said...: personally, i am just thrilled that they have something "fundamental" to blame the fall of crude oil on.. rolling my eyes..

nothing to do with leverage or longs selling.. and the runup had nothing to do with shorts covering..; March 11, 2011 at 10:14 AM
ben22 said...: @18,

you know I wonder if what you are doing has some relationship to Gann.....9's, 9 and 9 is 18, etc.

I-man might be able to figure that out.; March 11, 2011 at 10:14 AM
ben22 said...: I saw that last night that Obama was doing some energy talk. government is notorious for getting involved with things way after the fact, makes me think we might be close to some sort of short term top for oil.

would I short oil?

hell no, and no other commodity for that matter either.; March 11, 2011 at 10:16 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-11/qaddafi-s-son-mounts-offensive-as-nato-holds-back-on-imposing-no-fly-zone.html

Libya Fighting Centers on Oil Fields as NATO Mulls Action

...If the world wanted the rebels to stand a chance, this lack of a timely no-fly zone may have cooked the goose. We may find out later that behind the posturing of the west, what "we" really wanted was the status quo..; March 11, 2011 at 10:16 AM
Anonymous said...: CV-

c'mon dude- the USG will just "advise" folks to get out of their risky 401K's (or else face a 100% penalty for withdrawal)-

and to invest in nice safe treasuries

problem solved; March 11, 2011 at 10:17 AM
karen said...: the dollar is pathetic.. can't believe all that bond buying didn't have more impact..; March 11, 2011 at 10:18 AM
ben22 said...: 18,

1278 is pretty close to the wave idea of 1275, my plan for now is to sell short more on any bounce from there but I'll tighten up my stops on existing shorts on that add on, can't lose doing it this way. I think there will be one more leg down after the bounce from that range and then from there we might be able to go long for a month or more.

We'll see though, as if the market is going to make it that easy.; March 11, 2011 at 10:19 AM
karen said...: look at AGA and DBA today..; March 11, 2011 at 10:22 AM
Anonymous said...: "I don't bring many things up here I don't have a chart/data for..."

McB,

sure, sure, Tell us another one..

U have to be 'the Leading' Candidate for squawking the Most S**** -'round these Parts..

O, 2 Be Clear, I'm, just, kidding.. :)

AAIP; March 11, 2011 at 10:22 AM
ben22 said...: Ahab, here is a retail Joe comment I read this morning:

"Money will be needed to rebuild Japan. Probably a positive for markets"

That's real funny, I mean, if only we had a natural disaster every day, surely the DOW would be at least 100k or more. Just get out there and buy.; March 11, 2011 at 10:23 AM
Anonymous said...: Crude Oil 100.11 -2.59 -2.52
Natural Gas 3.953 +0.061 +1.57
Corn 682.75 -18.25 -2.67
Soybeans 1355.5 +6.5 +0.48
30yr Bond 120.56250 +0.25000 +0.21
10yr Note 119.734375 +0.109375 +0.09
NY Gold 1410.9 -1.6 -0.11
NY Silver 34.605 -0.461 -1.31
Emini S&P 1293.00 -1.25 -0.10
Emini Nasdaq 2277.0 -6.0 -0.26
Emini Dow 11945 -38 -0.32
http://www.ino.com/; March 11, 2011 at 10:24 AM
ben22 said...: I've got a s**** squawking chart too!

goes back to 86' (when data became available)

we are thinking about changing the methodology however, it's currently "off the charts"

RoR; March 11, 2011 at 10:24 AM
Anonymous said...: . . .and seizing retirement accounts is all the rage:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-25/hungary-follows-argentina-in-pension-fund-ultimatum-nightmare-for-some.html

"Hungary is giving its citizens an ultimatum: move your private-pension fund assets to the state or lose your state pension."; March 11, 2011 at 10:27 AM
Anonymous said...: b22-

we need more calamity; March 11, 2011 at 10:31 AM
I-Man said...: @ Ahab

Blessings be upon you, Jah Peace, I son.

Solemn given the terrible earthquake... say a prayer, if that be your thing.; March 11, 2011 at 10:31 AM
karen said...: FCX attempting a bounce..; March 11, 2011 at 10:31 AM
CV said...: @ben22

I'm not so certain that "pros" trust QE3 will provide the same boost, it very clearly is having diminishing returns if you are a believer that it moves markets and most people believe exactly that

I'm willing to concede you that point (in a sense that the "perception" was that equities jumped 35+% off of QE2 (1000 - 1350, I'm rounding here)...

So let's say I wouldn't necessarily expect a STRAIGHT UP jump of another 30% (I suppose it depends on the base level)...

But it DOES REPRESENT "play money" in the casino... & of course that could manifest itself in a number of different ways...

My play (keeping the MACRO picture in mind), is that QE is still debt "monetization" at the end of the day... And in any debt monetization scheme, I'll want to trade my PAPER notes for PHYSICAL goods (practically at any price)...; March 11, 2011 at 10:32 AM
18 said...: Ben, I've played around a little with the Gann lines using 9's and 18's some, they seem to line up a little more than 50% of the time but that's way after the fact. I can tell ya with 100% certainty that 18 X 72 = 1296.

If you just use fibs (w/50% levels on those fibs) on 0 - 1800, you get major market turns (somewhat close on most) for the last 30 years. Trying to figure out the relationship between the major and minor 18 because they differ most of the time.

100.000 1,800
1,719
0.910 1,638
1,588
0.854 1,537
1,456
0.764 1,375
1,244
0.618 1,112
1,006
0.500 900
794
0.382 688
556
0.236 425
344
0.146 263
213
0.090 162
81
0.000 0

shit, I'm telling ya all my secrets...lol; March 11, 2011 at 10:33 AM
karen said...: fcx looks like it needs to go to 43 at a minimum, however.; March 11, 2011 at 10:33 AM
ben22 said...: Karen,

notice all those little exhaustion gaps on no volume up to the 52 week high on DBA.; March 11, 2011 at 10:34 AM
Anonymous said...: or as Henry Miller said:

"more calamities, more death, more despair"

think of the bump to GDP!; March 11, 2011 at 10:36 AM
karen said...: interesting, thanks for pointing that out..; March 11, 2011 at 10:37 AM
ben22 said...: CV,

yeah, we'll see when we get there. maybe if there is a QE3 then instead of the whole market certain sectors are jumped on, we've got a long year ahead of us still.

18,

thanks, very interesting; March 11, 2011 at 10:37 AM
CV said...: @ahab

c'mon dude- the USG will just "advise" folks to get out of their risky 401K's (or else face a 100% penalty for withdrawal)

and to invest in nice safe treasuries

OBAMA will just send Chicago goon squads to your doorstep, and threaten to murder you and your family (vis a vis Wisconsin) if you don't fork over your 401k's to the government...

There... fixed it...; March 11, 2011 at 10:37 AM
I-Man said...: Gann said the 50% retracement was the only one to really worry about.

The 50% and the 100% are the best reversals, you dont need a chart to see that tho.

I would like to see you apply the 18s in the time scale, not just price.

That is where the true beauty of Gann, and EW too, comes into play...

Ahh... but the trick, is knowing where to start from...

It usually gets the best of em.

All the best charting software in the world wont do much for you if you dont know how to read the swings, and be able to ID changes in trend in advance... using only time and NOT price.

Gann also said that TIME will always overpower PRICE, but PRICE will never overpower TIME...; March 11, 2011 at 10:38 AM
ben22 said...: I heard investing in treasuries was Patriotic?

Not true?; March 11, 2011 at 10:39 AM
ben22 said...: "Gann also said that TIME will always overpower PRICE, but PRICE will never overpower TIME..."

That, to me, is a compelling concept.; March 11, 2011 at 10:41 AM
I-Man said...: I have also given some thought to the 18s, and how they are a multiple of 9, and the SQ of 9 implications...

7 is also very important, multiples of 7... 49 days, weeks, years...

Try overlaying the 7s... search biblical Jubillees...

Count out in 49s off major historical highs and lows in time... you may be surprised.; March 11, 2011 at 10:42 AM
Anonymous said...: "A real patriot is the fellow who gets a parking ticket and rejoices that the system works." - unknown; March 11, 2011 at 10:43 AM
Anonymous said...: "A patriot must always be ready to defend his country against his government."- Edward Abbey; March 11, 2011 at 10:45 AM
Anonymous said...: "I'm a patriot in the truest sense of the word."- Al Sharpton; March 11, 2011 at 10:47 AM
18 said...: I-Man, I guess mixing Gann price and time on the 18's might do it. One start would maybe be on the 24th last month when the SPX dropped down to 1296 then back up. Not sure how the time factor works tho.; March 11, 2011 at 10:49 AM
CV said...: @ben

"maybe if there is a QE3 then instead of the whole market certain sectors are jumped on"

I'm going to go back to this statement (of mine)...

But it DOES REPRESENT "play money" in the casino... & of course that could manifest itself in a number of different ways...

That's the gist of the whole argument...

IT'S MORE PLAY MONEY FOR THE CASINO...

I think people have to embrace the idea that even though the banks are insolvent (and can no longer turn a profit through traditional lending), the only reason for them to exist anymore is to play around with Monopoly money by bidding on prices of paper assets...

I suppose they think they're doing the world a service, because as long as there's an ILLUSION of a market, then there's supposedly still a reason for a money velocity to exist...

But in the new world, they have to CREATE THEIR OWN MONEY (& that's what QE is all about)...

Hell - I'm even willing to concede that, let's say the DOLLAR is the 'cheapest' thing on the board when a QE3 is announced, I'm willing to say that the dollar would rally (even though it is 100% counterintuitive to believe that the currency which is being de-valued to fund the bets actually gets bid up in price)...

It's a wacky world out there when markets are being held up purely by PRINTING 'debt money'...; March 11, 2011 at 10:49 AM
karen said...: My friend to the south was ordered off the beach by the lifeguards.. oh brother! nothing like making a mountain out of a mole hill.; March 11, 2011 at 10:50 AM
Anonymous said...: http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=FCX

k-

wouldn't ~45 be the first target?
the 200sma..(?)

ibid.

McB,

re: 10:24

so you Say!~ Personally, I'd like to See those, alleged, Charts!

;); March 11, 2011 at 10:50 AM
Anonymous said...: F under $14

I still liked it better at $1; March 11, 2011 at 10:50 AM
Anonymous said...: "Let therefore every man, that, appealing to his own heart, feels the least spark of virtue or freedom there, think that it is an honor which he owes himself, and a duty which he owes his country, to bear arms."
-- Thomas Pownhall
http://quotes.liberty-tree.ca/quote_blog/Thomas.Pownhall.Quote.3F4F; March 11, 2011 at 10:51 AM
karen said...: AIG doing weird stuff..; March 11, 2011 at 10:52 AM
ben22 said...: wave iv of C???....and gee look, a triangle on the daily

how unexpected....; March 11, 2011 at 10:52 AM
karen said...: "nsurance companies in the U.S. and Bermuda which have exposure to Japan are also likely to be affected though none of those contacted by Dow Jones Newswires have come out yet on their potential exposure. A spokesman for American International Group Inc. (AIG) declined to comment on the company's exposure. "; March 11, 2011 at 10:53 AM
18 said...: SPX swings are getting smaller, gonna bust in which direction?; March 11, 2011 at 10:53 AM
Jennifer said...: Ben -- if investing in treasuries is patriotic, does Bill Gross' latest announcement make him guilty of treason?

Karen -- did you post the Nenner vid yesterday? didn't want to duplicate if you did, I just got to it now.; March 11, 2011 at 10:54 AM
Anonymous said...: I think I will buy some F though; March 11, 2011 at 10:54 AM
I-Man said...: Yeah, I was glad to be able to make some quick coin in the "meat" of that triangle on the 1min chart.

Been sitting it out for the chop.; March 11, 2011 at 10:54 AM
Jennifer said...: I hate to say this, but the most recent action on the SPX hourly chart looks bullish to me. I see a near perfect wedge that is so steeply downward pointing that it looks like it is begging for a sharp bounce back. Of course, I am positioned for 1275, but I just had to get that out there.; March 11, 2011 at 10:55 AM
CV said...: Gann also said that TIME will always overpower PRICE, but PRICE will never overpower TIME..."

I'm not going to get into it, but if you study Einstein's theories on "special relativity", and apply the logic, that would make sense...; March 11, 2011 at 10:56 AM
ben22 said...: Jennifer,

lol, yes, he's also being ordered off the california beaches

bill gross is going to fool a bunch of people again, he's done this three years in a row now, makes a big stink about something and then you find out behind closed doors......something else was going on.

@18,

yeah, I see another symmetrical variety just looking at basic line chart on the 1 day

Welsey Snipes said to always bet on black in Passenger 57. What that has to do with the triangle I don't know but I'm just putting it out there.; March 11, 2011 at 10:57 AM
karen said...: Jenn, i think i posted some Nenner videos yesterday but go ahead! i know i watched two of them, i think..; March 11, 2011 at 10:57 AM
Anonymous said...: bill gross-

off with his head!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eobuu-IexvI; March 11, 2011 at 10:58 AM
karen said...: wow! just saw that little perfection triangle on today.. put it on a one minute, one day..; March 11, 2011 at 10:59 AM
CV said...: Personally, I'd like to See those, alleged, Charts

@AAIP

He could show them to you... But then he'd have to kill you! :-); March 11, 2011 at 10:59 AM
ben22 said...: bill gross-

off with his head!

I've always wondered what billionaire pays for such a crappy hair-do....what's with that mop Billy?

should give that Justin Beaver a call.; March 11, 2011 at 10:59 AM
karen said...: looks good on 5 and ten, too.. hmm..; March 11, 2011 at 11:00 AM
ben22 said...: ok....on the triangle...getting interesting here, Jennifer might have that right, maybe up...that's the sharpest rise through the 50 ema; March 11, 2011 at 11:01 AM
karen said...: darn financials need to weaken..; March 11, 2011 at 11:02 AM
karen said...: darn aussie and euro while i'm at it..; March 11, 2011 at 11:02 AM
Mel said...: @Ahab

Cdn buck is still worth a buck...regardless if it's paper. If you've got a mitt full...check your 'hood for Cdn bank branches...TD Bank and HSBC. I'm pretty sure they have to take them. In extremely good condition...they might retail for $2 through a dealer...as for the vig...who knows...but I wouldn't use them for kindling.; March 11, 2011 at 11:02 AM
karen said...: i'm watching it via spy.. hitting the top now.. if you don't look at yesterday and just today it looks bearish to me.. fast sto has neg divergence, too.; March 11, 2011 at 11:04 AM
CV said...: @karen

Re: AIG

I don't suppose you caught this article yesterday...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/aig-goes-re-broke-offers-repurchase-toxic-subprime-portfolio-fed-157-billion; March 11, 2011 at 11:04 AM
Anonymous said...: beaver fever!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XqOI7KejIng; March 11, 2011 at 11:05 AM
I-Man said...: Too much strength to the downside, overhead resistance, for it to break to the upside imo.

I'm sure there are plenty of folks itching to bail from higher prices to cut short any upmove.

Most of this "gap and dump" type trading we've seen is indicative of big players having to "force" higher prints in order to sell again.

The volumes just dry up after the big moves, so there is no one to sustain rallies.

They cant just hammer the sells because they would shit the bed on themselves before their supply is unloaded.; March 11, 2011 at 11:05 AM
karen said...: faz in apex.. lol..; March 11, 2011 at 11:06 AM
karen said...: faz/financials are key to this spx drop..; March 11, 2011 at 11:06 AM
ben22 said...: yeah, I agree with you guys, triangle like this is tricky so you look what came before, most likely they are continuation so with that in mind.....; March 11, 2011 at 11:08 AM
karen said...: NicTrades Nicola
$USDJPY all-time low of 78.75 came in months following 1995 Kobe earthquake. Strange how we could test level again with similar event

CV, i was reading about that AIG-Maiden Lane purchase this morning..; March 11, 2011 at 11:08 AM
18 said...: which gap will get filled 1st?

1287 area or 1316 area; March 11, 2011 at 11:09 AM
ben22 said...: here you go, I knew it would only be a matter of time before Cobra had this up.

Wish I could post my own on here, someday....

http://bbs.cobrasmarketview.com/download/file.php?id=775&mode=view

it's textbook giles!

*notice the decrease in volume as we near the apex.; March 11, 2011 at 11:09 AM
CV said...: @Mel

Cdn buck is still worth a buck...regardless if it's paper

It's probably the ONLY paper currency that is actually worth more than the coins...

I hear they're making beloe $1 CDN coins out of stainless steel...

We could not maintain the gold standard, nor the silver standard.

We could not maintain the copper standard.

And now, we cannot even maintain the zinc standard.

–Ron Paul; March 11, 2011 at 11:10 AM
Anonymous said...: Mel-

I just have a couple ( a newer one and a 1954)- also some Singapore, some Vietnam War era military coupons, some older paper 100 mexico pesos-

thought they might have curiosity value to someone on Ebay; March 11, 2011 at 11:10 AM
CV said...: @ahab

beaver fever! SNATCH IT!; March 11, 2011 at 11:11 AM
karen said...: i finally saw a mention of Libya on twitter just now..; March 11, 2011 at 11:12 AM
ben22 said...: and again, the pyschology of the market here makes perfect sense doesn't it?

Shorts not certain there is more downside, bears have been burned so hard for 2 years, while bulls are not certain about going long here, or holding into the weekend and so together they make a triangle like this one.; March 11, 2011 at 11:12 AM
karen said...: Port Of Long Beach: As of 8AM, the Coast Guard has directed petroleum transfer operations at both ports to cease until further notice

They are really taking this non event tsunami seriously.. better safe than sorry however.; March 11, 2011 at 11:14 AM
karen said...: NFLX has the same triangle..; March 11, 2011 at 11:15 AM
Anonymous said...: speaking of Snatch- great movie

anyone catch the Spatacus prequel on Starz- damn good-

I love gladiator movies; March 11, 2011 at 11:18 AM
CV said...: Here's the reason for your triangle bitchez!

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/market-down-nyse-borse-breaks

Don't worry - some geek will be right on it as soon as Jamie & Lloyd front-run all the orders in the system...

Then you'll have your triangle breakout...; March 11, 2011 at 11:19 AM
Jennifer said...: Ahab -- Spartacus is our guilty pleasure. My husband won't tell anyone he watches it since there is so much male nudity he is convinced it would make people think he is gay (not that there's anything wrong with that.); March 11, 2011 at 11:19 AM
CV said...: @ahab (11:18)

I love gladiator movies

Have you ever seen a grown man naked?; March 11, 2011 at 11:20 AM
ben22 said...: ahab,

re: Spartacus
yeah, it was cool, wish it wasn't over so fast, I think it's all messed up now because the guy that was playing Spartacus has cancer apparently. Hope he can get better.

looking forward to True Blood coming back on.; March 11, 2011 at 11:20 AM
AFIA said...: ahab said - "a viable future for Fed easing is on again off again-
just like Japan"

That was a great comment and is definitely our future if we fail to escape ZIRP. QE on, QE off. Risk on, risk off.

What a week.... can't even begin to tell you how confusing this has been with oil running up and down. A great week to have bonds...

Japan story is going to be all about yen repatriation right now. Once it reaches its peak, they will almost certainly print and then the Nikkei will be a buy. We are talking a hard look at a few names, but you have to do the EWJ really b/c few Japanese companies pay big dividends. Even NTT is only 2-3%.

Back this afternoon with fixed income thoughts.; March 11, 2011 at 11:20 AM
Anonymous said...: They are really taking this non event tsunami seriously.. better safe than sorry however.

It's good practice so people have an idea about what to do in a real one.; March 11, 2011 at 11:21 AM
CV said...: @ben22

Shorts not certain there is more downside, bears have been burned so hard for 2 years, while bulls are not certain about going long here, or holding into the weekend and so together they make a triangle like this one.

No more MENA revolutions or tsunamis until Obama graces us with his brackets!; March 11, 2011 at 11:22 AM
Mel said...: Ahab

Hop on a plane and visit Toronto this summer...it's a nice town...the '54 will probably buy you a case of Molsons:-); March 11, 2011 at 11:23 AM
ben22 said...: No doubt CV, if he uses a Mont Blanc pen

that's bullish for sure

A Bic and we go down hard.

RoR.; March 11, 2011 at 11:24 AM
CV said...: They are really taking this non event tsunami seriously.. better safe than sorry however.

It's good practice so people have an idea about what to do in a real one.

Here's a good model of what to do...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J4f4_cW3MA0; March 11, 2011 at 11:26 AM
karen said...: faz breakdown or making new triangle..; March 11, 2011 at 11:27 AM
AmenRa said...: SMA(55) is 1297.67 so now the market needs a higher close to stay above it.; March 11, 2011 at 11:29 AM
18 said...: If I see the spooz go above 1296 again and back below... I'm gonna puke.; March 11, 2011 at 11:29 AM
CV said...: @ahab

Well at least you didn't tell us that you LUBE Gladiator Movies...

That might have been worrisome...; March 11, 2011 at 11:29 AM
I-Man said...: It may be helpful to think of the key resistance/support levels as "zones" more than "prices"...

This is not linear.

Sometimes they reverse on a dime at the level, but in my experience, when it is a major level that folks are watching, it becomes a zone more than a line in the sand.

This is exascerbated by traders placing stops, entries, targets, etc right near the levels.

It seems to be worse right around moments of trend change.; March 11, 2011 at 11:37 AM
karen said...: 18.. lol. are you happier now?; March 11, 2011 at 11:38 AM
karen said...: NicTrades Nicola
$USDJPY daily wedge http://stock.ly/44s88d; March 11, 2011 at 11:40 AM
karen said...: $djr made a lower low today..; March 11, 2011 at 11:40 AM
karen said...: BLS: Job Openings decline in January, Low Labor Turnover http://goo.gl/fb/S4NIr; March 11, 2011 at 11:45 AM
Anonymous said...: http://cgi.ebay.com/GIFT-CERTIFICATE-PLAYBOY-SUBSCRIPTION-3-years-/360346586820?pt=US_Gift_Certificates&hash=item53e6548ec4

you know, for 'camo'-purposes, for those who Lube 'Gladiator Movies'..; March 11, 2011 at 11:46 AM
18 said...: @K, yeh, LOL, a little, I bot a gob of SSO 54 calls yesterday and maybe up a bit now.; March 11, 2011 at 11:46 AM
Jennifer said...: Hmmm....this isn't looking very bearish.; March 11, 2011 at 11:47 AM
Anonymous said...: True Blood-

GREAT SHOW! Nothing can top that chick who was ripping people's hearts out from the second season- but that Vampire King from season three was pretty close

Re Spartacus- the prequel was made because the dude who plays Spartacus has leukemia with the hopes that he would recover and be able to resume his role in a 3rd season-

CV- lube the Airplane reference

Mel- I love Canada (and Canadian beer)- been mostly on the West coast though- British Columbia and Alberta-

I used to go up to Vermont every year to snow board with the kids- the resort was owned by Canadians and most of the guests there were French Canadian- pretty cool; March 11, 2011 at 11:49 AM

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Morning Corner 3.11.11

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