Morning Corner 3.8.11





IQI (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=down
low= 11.19
rev= 12.32; mid= 11.76



Stuck in a tight range for the past few weeks. Last week was the first week it closed below its weekly 3LB mid since making the low the week of 1/14/11. Sitting precariously close to the SMA(144) and the last time it closed below that level was 6/8/07. Currently the SMA(144) is 11.62 and is the level to watch out for.



MUB (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=down
low= 96.26
rev= 101.61; mid= 98.94



Unlike IQI (aka HY) MUB (aka IG) hasn't broken down below its weekly 3LB mid…yet. The SMA(13) seems to be the line in the sand for MUB. It's at 99.31 and this week will probably close below it. There will have to be absolute weakness in municipal bonds to give the Fed cover for QE3.

187 comments:

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110307/bs_nm/us_eurozone

Moody's downgrade tips Greece closer to brink

"Rehn said there was a case for lowering the interest rate on both Greek and Irish loans and giving them longer to repay.

"The issue now and tomorrow is debt sustainability, and therefore I can see that there is a case to reduce the interest rates paid by Greece and Ireland," he told reporters.

"In that context, it is important that we also look at loan maturities so that we can go beyond the hump of 2014 and 2015 and that also contributes to debt sustainability."


...Well, that didn't last long. Of course, if they loaned them more money tomorrow that could repay the first loan faster!"

Bruce in Tennessee said...

gas at the station that was 2.97...yesterday 3.45. So only 11 cents over the weekend from Friday.

Someone is reading the blog..I saw several references to cost-push inflation yesterday...or maybe we are just early..

CV said...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/8359076/US-farmers-fear-the-return-of-the-Dust-Bowl.html

"For years the Ogallala Aquifer, the world’s largest underground body of fresh water, has irrigated thousands of square miles of American farmland. Now it is running dry"

---

CV has been talking about the OA for years now... Not that anybody is really interested...

After all... FOOD - you can't EAT it...

CV said...

Nickles bitchez!

...or should I start saying "Zinc Bitchez!"...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/no-silver-no-problem-us-mint-would-know-if-you-will-accept-brass-steel-iron-or-tungsten-coin

In any case... Got Brass in Pocket?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7Hy7uAb_eU

We're ALL "Pretenders" now...

CV

CV said...

The first ranchers, and the Plains Indians before them, knew of water below the ground from the watering holes that sustained buffalo and then cattle far from any river. The white man learnt to drill, leaving primitive windmills on top of wooden derricks silhouetted against Wild West horizons.

But it was only in the 1940s, after the Dust Bowl (the result of a severe drought and excessive farming in the early 1930s), that the US Geological Survey worked out that the watering holes were clues to the Ogallala, now believed to be the world's largest body of fresh water. They were about to repeat the dreams of man from the days of Ancient Egypt and Judea to turn the desert green, only without the Nile or Jordan. With new technology the wells could reach the deepest water, and from the early 1950s the boom was on. Some of the descendants of Dust Bowl survivors became millionaire landowners.

'Since then,' says David Brauer of the US Agriculture Department agency, the Ogallala Research Service, 'we have drained enough water to half-fill Lake Erie of the Great Lakes.' Billions upon billions of gallons – or, as they prefer to measure it, acre-feet of water, each one equivalent to a football field flooded a foot deep – have been pumped. 'The problem,' he goes on, 'is that in a brief half-century we have drawn the Ogallala level down from an average of 240ft to about 80.'

Brauer's agency was set up in direct response to the Dust Bowl, with the brief of finding ways to make sure that the devastation never happens again. If it does, the impact on the world's food supply will be far greater. The irrigated Plains grow 20 per cent of American grain and corn (maize), and America's 'industrial' agriculture dominates international markets. A collapse of those markets would lead to starvation in Africa and anywhere else where a meal depends on cheap American exports. 'The Ogallala supply is going to run out and the Plains will become uneconomical to farm,' Brauer says. 'That is beyond reasonable argument. Our goal now is to engineer a soft landing. That's all we can do.'


---

ENGINEER a soft landing??? - RMFAO!

It's a good thing we're all such wizards at science & math in this country! & too bad all our ENGINEERS & CENTRAL PLANNERS have taken up residence in Wall St. & Capitol Hill...

CV said...

Oh wait!!! I forgot...

We still have the Colorado River right??? (Which nowadays runs dry before it even reaches the Gulf of California - after being diverted to fill up a few swimming pools in So. Cal)

CV said...

Hey...

But I heard "Las Vegas Sands" had a BUY rating on it!

So we have THAT going for us!

karen said...

morning!! odd day..

karen said...

$copper continuing to drop..

karen said...

look at the tip of faz on a daily chart.. another triangle!

AmenRa said...

Silver isn't playing well with others. Gold and oil are down while silver marches onwards and upwards.

karen said...

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/03/qe2-the-end/
"Numerous parties have been complaining about — and making erroneous assumptions regarding — the Fed’s policy of quantitative easing. If the liquidity gusher of QE/ZIRP is impacting the primary asset class you are holding — and I am hard pressed to think of one it does not affect — then you best be prepared for what comes when it terminates."

AmenRa said...

Yesterday SPX fought to hold the weekly S1 (1305.06). Will it get taken out today and make S2 (1288.97) the next test?

Jennifer said...

Karen -- look at the $SPX hourly chart. There was a smaller rising trendline at the bottom connecting all the downward moves. It broke yesterday, then the bear flag backtested. This morning's open up touched the line, then dropped away. Next stop SPX 1302.

karen said...

for a laugh (and he was nibbling long yesterday)

Douglas Kass
buying f and gm as a play on fading crude prices now

Jennifer said...

CAT and DE both broke down pretty big today.

karen said...

the financials are perturbing me greatly this morning..

karen said...

Douglas Kass
adding to my longs initiated in yesterdays weakness $$

karen said...

if XLF breaks out here i am going to slit my wrists.. really..

Jennifer said...

Hmmm...back over that 1313 area..that didn't go the way I thought it would at all!

CV said...

I'll say it now (just to save everyone from the daily yip yap about it)...

Although - I'll probably YIP YAP about it anyway while it is happening (and after the fact)...

So here it is... CV's latest offering on the

Fade Obama/Put your $$ on Super Saver in the Derby/NCAA Final 4/Green Bay Packers/Oscars/Nickles bitchez/Food bitchez/Tilapia bitchez/Water irrigation bitchez trade...

Drumroll...

- QE2 WILL BECOME QE3 (only they have to think of a way to 'disguise' it, and not really ADMIT that that's what they're doing)...

- So the 'scare' (vis a vis great 'geniuses' like Ritholtz) will be to tell you to PROTECT your assets - [which translates to 'Short the Market' & hell, while you're at it, short those commodities because they, like 2008, will move high beta to equities]... Meanwhile, the dollar & treasuries ought to get their little 'technical' bump so as to make the virgin sacrifice at the alter & thus satiate the TECHNICAL TRADING GODS... I suppose in the annals of trading history, it'll be a great trade, but I'm also guessing it'll be a colossal waste of time in the GRANDER scheme of things...

- Go ahead, make a buck (and pay your taxes) off of that move... But all you'll be left with in the end will be a bunch of FRN's... (which you won't want to part with THEN either because your greed will morph itself back in to wanting more PROFITS on the flip side of that wave)...

- That's about when the SILENT (QE3) will kick in... Which is sometime between now and July 1st... You'll know it is happening when the $$ starts curiously following certain assets [such as when the commodities BOTTOMED in November 2008, 4 months BEFORE the S&P found it's March 2009 bottom]...

- Of course, even when you SEE it, you won't believe it [furthermore - CV will be reminded every day about how copper prices are collapsing]... Everyone will have a warm & fuzzy feeling holding on to all those FRN's (& US Treasuries that give you that nice "income yield" of what??? low single digit returns)...

- Then within the next 18 months, the PURCHASING POWER of those FRN's (and the comfy yield from the Treasuries) will be eroded, as another $1.5T gets "monetized" under a program called QE-silent number with no name that doesn't officially exist

- Ritholtz will be around then to tell all the mere mortals how it all went down...

- I'll be off counting nickles somewhere, and harvesting food...

karen said...

zerohedge
Citigroup offering bidder partial financing to buy Citifinancial. brillian

karen said...

Financial stocks have run ahead to a collective 1.2% gain. Bank of America (BAC 14.22, +0.19) has been a leader in the move, but regional plays Regions Financial (RF 7.48, +0.07) and PNC Financial (PNC 61.67, +0.97) have complemented the effort. Leadership from the financial sector has helped lift the broader market out of negative territory..

Jennifer said...

Check out UUP

Bruce in Tennessee said...

CV:

I read the aquifier article yesterday. The comments that followed were from people living in the area, and they crucified the author.....

It appears, at least from the comments, that he only presented the side of the debate that he wanted to..

karen said...

Douglas Kass
i am selling out my trADING long rentals taken in yesterday mornings weakness now

karen said...

Jennifer please.. another distressing ticker! I see what it is doing and I can't take it.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Didn't like the SLV...gone. Too unpredictable to hold when others are selling.

karen said...

i just looked at % ups.. all .68% give or or take .01! those damn bots!!

karen said...

http://www.stocktiming.com/Tuesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

So, two weeks ago, the VIX started moving sideways and halting its positive down trend for the market. Now, as long as the VIX remains below 23.84 and above 15.23, then it will be in a sideways trading range. This would imply that the stock market will be moving sideways with high volatility swings for the coming weeks.

However, for a long term trend change, keep a focus on the 23.84 and 15.23 levels. Above 23.84 would put the market at risk of having a serious correction, and above 23.84 would likely relate to Saudi Arabia's protests and/or risk of having a revolt which could threaten oil and gas supplies.

Below 15.23 would relate to renewed world and economic confidence, and calmness in the oil producing countries.

For now, Saudi Arabia is facing a "Day of Rage" on Friday, and a possible push for a revolution on March 20th. So, until this turmoil settles down, the markets will be at risk of a spike in fear levels.

karen said...

This is BIG news: http://www.businessinsider.com/carl-icahn-just-announced-hes-returning-18-billion-to-clients-and-hes-warning-of-another-crisis-2011-3

karen said...

Lawrence McDonald
$31.1 billion in insider stock selling over the past 60 days—the highest level since before the financial crisis began #TrimTabs

(so who in the heck is buying this market??!!)

karen said...

I'll answer that.. dumb $$

Anonymous said...

here's a thought

the low VIX is not a sign of confidence but one of complacency

CV said...

@Bruce

No point in EVER holding SLV...

In a world of paper... You want to own physical... Paper holders of GLD & SLV are going to be the ones holding the bag when TSHTF...

---

On the subject of H20... I'll continue to stick to my belief that it is THE MOST precious resource on the planet (but only "slightly" more precious than holding on to S&P futures)... /snark off

Andy T said...

Silver and CRude look like triangles forming on the intraday basis....

CV said...

"(so who in the heck is buying this market??!!)"

Ummm... (3 guesses)

1. FRBNY (who do not, I repeat DO NOT meddle in capital markets because central banks Do not, I repeat DO NOT "monetize" debt

2. A bunch of anonymous traders "firing off the trade" with their TD Ameritrade accounts

3. gnomes

karen said...

great spy chart: http://chart.ly/2qsjrbm

Jennifer said...

And we breach 1325 -- wasn't that the level AT said should not be broken to keep the short term bearish case alive?

I-Man said...

This is some funny shit aint it?

karen said...

Jenn.. i think 1328ish needs to hold.. but i will say this is UFB.. entirely surreal.

karen said...

Oh yes, I-Man.. this is funny alright:

'Bank of America rallies and pulls the banking sector higher on hopes the company will be able to raise its dividend.'

karen said...

UPDATED SPY: http://chart.ly/7edogqw

"60Min~133.40 would break us out, I doubt we do it today"

I-Man said...

This truly is leading them off the cliff, Ra...

I-Man said...

I do have my biggest gain of the day on this short...

Should probably cover it now before my face is ripped off.

But I'm a stubborn Natty I...

karen said...

barry ritholtz
Today's Bank Rally shows that the Street thinks the proposed mortgage settlement is a giveaway/bailout, letting the banks off scott-free $$

AmenRa said...

I'm just in awe at the lemmings. I'd be more confident in a reversal on the SPX if it had gapped down before moving higher.


***The market is SCARED of the weekly 3LB mid. Yeah I said it.***

I-Man said...

Whatdya say about throwing a Dow chart in the Wrappah today?

Pretty please...

I-Man said...

Lets see how fast we give back all that morning ecstasy...

Time will tell.

AmenRa said...

I-Man

Cash or futures?

AmenRa said...

Gamed this market higher and the best they could do so far is knock gold, silver and oil down by 0.5% or less. So what's next?

I-Man said...

How about the YM? Can you do that? Its not absolutely necessary, and I realize that I'm probably the only one watching it.

I am interested in seeing how the 3LB mids line up with some Gann pivots I have saved on my daily charts...


BTW, this could turn into a slippery slope real fast...

And that Crude thingy looks like it wants to reload...

AmenRa said...

I-Man

Today is all about getting traders out of PMs and into equities. It's not working.

I-Man said...

I was thinking it was just about having a higher price to sell from.

:)

AmenRa said...

I-Man

The MSM can't talk about correction until retail and those who buy at the top are in. Not there yet.

AmenRa said...

karen

The banks are getting off scott free. Let's just say that the state AG's now know what "Bukk--e" is as they were the recipients.

Anonymous said...

here's a pretty chart-

http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=NFLX&ty=c&ta=0&p=d

lol

AmenRa said...

ahab

NFLX will be trending down with a weekly close below 210.72. I also see 3 gaps on that chart. The 3rd gap must have been exhaustion.

Anonymous said...

CV

Ogallala

That is T Boone Pickens play. He "re-branded" it gas, and wind, but his land holdings are among the largest in that area.

Anonymous said...

Ra-

NFLX's ultimate destination is much lower . . .I saw earlier that Warner is launching streaming video on Facebook-

and we have Amazon offering the service as well . . .maybe redbox next-

the Vandals are crossing the moat and attacking the castle

AmenRa said...

ahab

Wait until NFLX gets charged for infrastructure use. The Vandals will have made it over the walls of the castle and start attacking the interior defenses.

I-Man said...

Someone just put some offers on the board...

Coordinated.

karen said...

15 Places to get free food in NYC!

http://ny.eater.com/archives/2011/03/freebies_map.php

Anonymous said...

Ra-

no doubt

also- this headline: "Economy Not Self-Sustaining: PIMCO's Bill Gross" - CNBC

not self sustaining? It hasn't been self sustaining for over ten years. . .

tell me something new Bill Gross

Karen-

I want free food

Anonymous said...

WTI- interesting looking daily coming up....

AmenRa said...

Silver may have a shooting star confirmation.

Now for a note on confirmation. The deeper into the long day a confirmation closes the better the confirmation. So the order is long day - shooting star - confirmation. The confirmation day should penetrate the long day for starters and push down to its midpoint for a better signal.

karen said...

The fotos are horrifying: Millions of dead fish float to surface in Redondo Beach, Calif., marina - latimes

http://lat.ms/eIeSS4

AmenRa said...

Anon

Looks like a high wave doji so far. But yesterday was not a shooting star because the candle had too much tail (lower shadow).

AmenRa said...

karen

That's a LOT of fish. The question would be are they safe for eating? Do I need to check the grocery tags to see if the seafood is from CA?

Bruce in Tennessee said...

I think Leftback was swimming there recently...


...hmmmm...

karen said...

Feds Can Add Loch Capital To The Body Count
By BESS LEVIN

Boston-based Loch Capital, one of four hedge funds raided last November by the FBI, which put on quite the show by telling employees to walk in with their hands in the air, has closed its doors. The firm, which has not been accused of any wrongdoing, apparently officially shuttered things in back in December, though this is the first time anyone’s mentioned anything.

(I just thot that was interesting.)

Anonymous said...

I read something recently that said we are in the midst of a 4th mass extinction (might have been 5th- can't remember)

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Libya-violence-battering-oil-apf-2203829418.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=

"CAIRO (AP) -- An official with a subsidiary of Libya's national oil company said Tuesday that production has dropped by about 90 percent, a reflection of the beating the OPEC member's oil sector is taking amid violence raging in the country.

Sirte Oil Co. is producing about 9,500 barrels per day, compared to normal production levels at about 95,000 barrels per day, said company official Ahmed Jerski."

...Maybe we are awash in oil, but not oil out of Libya..

AmenRa said...

Bruce

To add to that it takes years for production to return to pre crisis levels.

Anonymous said...

funny stuff-

"How Twitter Is Transforming Trading in Commodities"- CNBC

can see it now- farmer Joe in Indiana tweets that his corn looks a bit droopy and corn futures sell off

CV said...

@Anon (1:21)

(I'm assuming that was you, AAIP)...

YUP!... TBP (T-Boone, NOT "The Big Picture") is one smart cat...

---

Also...

So here we go again with another day of shouts of UFB!...

Well let's see here... (CV draws out his rolodex, "old schoolin' it here", of past comments)... Aha! Here's one... (from last Thursday - when the markets were just about to give it all up... When those deflationary pressures were FINALLY going to get "priced in" by Harry Wanger...

http://traders-anonymous.blogspot.com/2011/03/morning-corner-3311.html?showComment=1299159341263#c3731536324115585819

---

- EOQ
- Performance Anxiety
- High beta
- Crude

OK, OK... so COP doesn't look too great today, but I think Amen will tell you that the candle on that looks better now than at the start of the day (and who but Harry Wanger himself can chart the "ticks" on pricing in the latest Ghadaffi rumors)?

- Russel 2K doesn't look too bad though... Translation? HIGH BETA...HIGH BETA...HIGH BETA...HIGH BETA...HIGH BETA...HIGH BETA...HIGH BETA...HIGH BETA...HIGH BETA...

- Banks (especially the most insolvent one of all, BAC), don't look too bad... Translation? HIGH BETA...HIGH BETA...HIGH BETA...HIGH BETA...HIGH BETA...HIGH BETA...HIGH BETA...HIGH BETA...HIGH BETA...

- Crude is still higher than it was last week... Peeps... $100 is now a 'floor' (or at least until AFTER Obama organizes a "media day" next week and holds a press conference to show his NCAA bracket predictions...

- and YEAH... COP is still shy of a HUGE chart gap (going back to September '08), which is shy of a 78.6% retrace of it's all time high... So despite todays RED, do you REALLY think it's gonna stop here & retreat?

Jeez people... CV feels as if he's become a TROLL on the damn blog that I started a year ago...

But C'MON MAN!... Somebody get their nose out of a chart for a moment and send CV a reluctant nod here...

AmenRa said...

Congress is trying to put a hold on debit card swipe rules that are part of the Dodd-Frank bill.

AmenRa said...

CV

Wadup Playa.

CV said...

@Amen Ra

"Bukk--e"

RMFAO! :-)

I'm fairly sure that 'blew' right by - lol

I-Man said...

Yee haw... here we go...

I-Man said...

Greetings in the Name of the Most High, CV...

karen said...

Bespoke
The shrinking S&P 500 short-term trading range. Which way do you think it will break? http://bit.ly/ggihCw

CV said...

@I-Man & Amen

OK then... Thanks 'comrades' :-)

I-Man said...

I skipped my lunch break to maintain that short...

Feeling good about it now, but hungry like a BEAR...

I-Man said...

Buy them dips... buy em and pay I...

AmenRa said...

CV

At least someone got the joke ;-)

Anonymous said...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4AZtWGB1Khc

Bukk-e

AmenRa said...

SPX failing at staying above the daily 3LB mid and looking to retest the weekly 3LB mid.

karen said...

How in the heck was I supposed to get that anyway??!!

I'm nodding, Chet. Are you happy now?

Anonymous said...

my motto has always been to speak softly and carry a big stick-

(and check out the dude defending himself with a hammer - lol)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mO65Xu4lRQo

I contend it is not a big stick- but a Wizard Staff

ben22 said...

@AT,

I don't understand why Neely is confident we are seeing an expanding triangle forming? Or at least he seemed that way yesterday and again today.

I don't have my NEO Wave book with me but looking at the rules in the EWP book on Expanding Triangle then I don't see it, unless I'm looking at the short term and he's talking bigger picture.

I've noticed lots of people have the symmetrical triangle drawn on the cash S&P right now from the 2/18 high, orthodox counters mark it as a wave IV, I don't like that larger count for a number of reasons, as we already discussed.

I'm still thinking it's an X wave until proven otherwise as the best interpretation but Neely man seems to be going in a completely different direction.

What am I missing?

karen said...

James Turk - Forget $8,000, Gold Headed Much Higher http://tinyurl.com/49axqkf

Jennifer said...

I just got back.

Hi CV! (putting nose back into charts...)

Ahab -- you were asking about junior miners, right? I get these daily emails from Rick Ackerman. Sometime in the last month or so, one of the daily columns was written by a guest named Chuck Cohen and it was about miners. He had a link where you could join his (Chuck's) email distribution list. He sends stuff out pretty regularly on junior miners, but they are super juniors, really penny stock land. But, if you're interested...

AmenRa said...

ahab

Whoever it was doesn't know how to hold it. Should've gotten his assed whupped.

karen said...

if i see one more triange.. this is so damn scary!

and, of course, it can't break down, right?

karen said...

Jennifer! I used to subscribe to Rick.. fun fellow!

karen said...

important! Crescenzi: 10-year #TIP priced for #CPI of 2.55% for next 10 years. Highest since July 2008. Expectations matter!

Anonymous said...

Jennifer-

what's the link?

Ra- that dude must have been hopped up on a couple hurricane four o's-

I can see his mind clickin'- "hmmmm- a big ass stick . . .well, I'm gonna take this stick and go rob that liquor store on the corner . . ."

LOL

72bat said...

naw, cv, i instantly had a mental image of the "new" ohio ag, mike dewine, drenched in creamy ranch and him loving every drop of it.

karen said...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-currency-wars-flash-points-age-rage

(and i have a really bad feeling about where the price of crude is headed by friday..)

Jennifer said...

the email address for Chuck is ikiecohen@msn.com
If you email him I'm sure he'll add you to his list.

Rick Ackerman's site is www.rickackerman.com You can sign up for his daily email (interesting only b/c it is free) but that way you will see when Chuck's stuff comes along.

Anonymous said...

Jennifer-

Thanks- I am looking at "Rick's Picks" right now

karen said...

i won't be able to sleep tonight after that Tipping Points fellow's analysis..

I-Man said...

OK... a few more dip buyers than I thought, LOL...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

OK, I'll take what was Steve Jobs' father's name for 100...

Abdulfattah Jandali.

http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/10-unusual-things-you-probably-dont-know-about-steve-jobs/19871357/

I-Man said...

So Ra, is where we just zoomed back up to on the SPX, is that the 3LB daily mid?

I-Man said...

@ K 2:37

Higher or lower?

I see 120s...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Er. Karen. Did you look at Tepper's top 5?

Doing all right today..

CV said...

@Amen

Also... Let me publish here CV's 'latest' theory on SILVER...

---

I say there's no effin way in hell that it's going to CORRECT before it hits "Hunt Bros"...

Question: "Why?"
BETTER Question" "Why Not"

Cue the Seals & Crofts "We May Never Pass This Way Again" that one goes out especially to MEL-o [in Canada] who I hope is listening in...

---

CV thinks the ZH'ers have it all wrong... [well - not ALL of it - in that - CV still thinks you have to own physical silver]...

Instead - what they're WRONG about is that it's all a FUBM game... (that would translate to "f--- you Blythe Masters)...

Instead - CV thinks JPM knows EXACTLY what they're doing (or - more or less)...

What you need to do is... IMHO... Divorce your understanding of the market, and separate it into 2 aspects:

- Physical
- Paper

JPM actually "inherited" a great deal of silver shorts from Bear Stearns book... In a grander sense, it's inconsequential (because probably - in reality, they could be FORGIVEN of those obligations in some new RE-WORKING of rules, when BANKS BECOME NATIONALIZED, saying that "at the time" JPM was acting in the interest of AMERICA by taking Bear Stearns... You get the picture... hopefully...

But look at the "run-up" in all the commodity prices (after the MARGIN COLLAPSES of 2008)... All of them have stuck to perfect FIB levels... No reason (to me, at least), that they ALL won't smooth out that way before the final PLUG IS PULLED on QE2 (and ushers in the "dark ages" of collapse - then let's run not walk to the Fed to bail us out of the next calamity)...

Andy why?... Well - obvious, (because come 2012, there's another POTUS election cycle)... SURE - gasoline & food prices are a concern, but u wanna kno what's MORE of a concern?...

J-O-B-S

A collapse in equities, means a COLLAPSE in the "recoveryless recovery"... So SURELY we'll need Obama & Benny Bucks to ride to the rescue again with another plan to CREATE &/OR SAVE another million jobs... Please hereoes, wave your magic wands...

Rinse - repeat

This IS NOT "Japan style" deflation (well - IT IS, actually, but what it PRODUCES is actually something different... "BIFLATION", I suppose)...

CV said...

PART 2

Anyway - back to my SILVER theory...

I think JPM's "plan" is to actually raid the SLV... (set aside any "conspiracy theories" you might have heard about tungsten bars and the like)...

Let's assume that the SLV actually has the bars for delivery that it represents...

OK... Now "look" at all the spots where JPM (ostensibly) made attempts to "naked short" the price (all the MANIPULATION chatter) you hear on ZH & places... Technically speaking, a lot of it is congested in the $25 - $31 dollar range...

PERFECT

- $25 is a 50% retrace from $50 (Hunt Bros level)
- $31/$20 represent the 61.8 levels (or thereabouts)

So JPM can have Benny Bucks print all the money they want to build short positions (all the way to $50 - get the PAPER FOOLS to jump in there &or 'squeeze' the HF's)...

When it hits $50 on paper, the plug is pulled... Most PHYSICAL buyers will curtail purchases at that moment (wait it out), so BACKWARDATION pressures will be alleviated on futures contracts...

Of course... The SPX & DOW will be crashing all at the same time (on whatever the 'manufactured crisis' du jour is)... I doubt it'll take more than a few months time to resolve - perhaps May to July - but it could start earlier - follow the PRICES, not the times...

So when JPM comes in to 'cover' all the paper shorts they hold (thanks, US taxpayer), they'll turn around and stand for delivery for PHYSICAL...

Making physical, at that point, UNOBTANIUM...

Which will be about the time that "QE3" will arrive... You know - so we can CREATE &OR SAVE ANOTHER MILLION JOBS...

When THAT wave turn occurs... I'd be sure to have plenty of food & land on hand... But that's just ME

karen said...

I-Man.. HIGHER, unfortunately.. this stall just seems like a pause to catch it's breath..

Bruce, don't rub it in about Tepper.. and yes, i noted all the financials on his list.. i dare say it was ALL financials... maybe he's selling today : )

karen said...

its breath, i meant..

I-Man said...

Lets try this shorting thang once more, and then call it a day shall we?

I-Man said...

And lets not let em up for air this time...

karen said...

NLY has been red all day..

AmenRa said...

I-Man

It's 1323.27. The fight continues.

I-Man said...

thx

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Wells Fargo was 3rd AND 7th....

...sometimes you just can't get enough...

karen said...

uh-oh.. getting to close to breakout for my comfort..

I-Man said...

Alrighty, I-Man's done for the day.

Thanks for playing.

karen said...

BAC chart: http://chart.ly/wgpvl6l

karen said...

this is an interesting SPY fib arc chart: http://chart.ly/jlbod3q

karen said...

Mr TOP STEP says "you cant handle the truth, look at the DJTs they are making new highs"

I-Man said...

Although I believe this move is truly utter bullshit, I'm not going to let them rob me 7 ticks at a time.

karen said...

(oh no! another one! : )

Greg Harmon
$TLT http://chart.ly/6meayas Coming to the end of the triangle, something gonna happen soon

CV said...

Let's put it this way...

If the SPX makes an 'escape' here (which - if you're not from another planet, and therefore NOT realize that I've been 'hinting' at this for a bit now)...

- taking SPX to 1400-ish
- SLV to 50-ish
- crude to 120-ish

all...basically - in a SPRINT (which is identified as anytime between now and May)...

...and re-configuring a bunch of EWI wave counts in the process...

Well then - I TRIED...

---

I'll try to DO BETTER with my NCAA BRACKETS...

& when THAT is met with "incredulity" - I'll try to pick another Kentucky Derby winner...

---

& if I'm WRONG... I'll humbly beg forgiveness (& try to put up a couple nice 'tunes' to soothe your nerves)...

'Soothing' (in CV's terms) comes from the idea that when I sleep at night, I know how to access about 1.5 metric tons of "protein", "carbs", & "fat" - known otherwise as FOOD)...

karen said...

http://blogs.forbes.com/chrisbarth/2011/03/07/roubini-predicts-oil-will-hit-150-per-barrel-traders-betting-on-200/

AmenRa said...

I just realized that this move today is a psychological move. This is the time in 2009 when the markets began their violent upward move. Currently its trying to imply the same move may be in the cards.

CV said...

@karen

Forgive me for saying this but "TLT is BS"...

Let me qualify that...

It'll spike... SURE... (so will Bukk--e)... WHEN TPTB decide to "pull the plug" on QE2 and usher in the "6 weeks or so" of TIME variable necessary to frighten the known world into thinking there WILL BE NO QE3...

Follow the money...

In 2008... There was a MASSIVE move to BUKK-E and UST's... I suppose the same will occur this time...

Let me make a WILD GUESS...

THIS TIME, it will be to a 61.8% degree of how it happened last time... (time & amount)...

Anonymous said...

Crude Oil 105.09 -0.35 -0.33
Natural Gas 3.928 -0.056 -1.41
Corn 705.5 -12.0 -1.67
Soybeans 1382.0 -13.0 -0.93
30yr Bond 118.50000 -0.68750 -0.58
10yr Note 118.343750 -0.265625 -0.22
NY Gold 1429.9 -4.6 -0.32
NY Silver 36.010 +0.145 +0.40
Emini S&P 1323.25 +14.25 +1.09
Emini Nasdaq 2343.5 +19.0 +0.82
Emini Dow 12232 +154 +1.28
http://www.ino.com/

CV said...

@Amen (3:30)

Yeah - but be careful that that psychology isn't just the opportunity to start a short wave H&S...

Just saying...

karen said...

i sense a sell off coming on..

karen said...

zerohedge: YEMEN POLICE FIRE ON PROTESTERS IN SANA'A, AL-JAZEERA SAYS

karen said...

talk about a stall..

AmenRa said...

Silver still isn't playing along.

CV said...

Look - I don't really know...

All I know is that a lot of prices in the commodity space (& even bukk--e), have uncompleted "looks" to them...

Not that I know anything...

Hell - most were telling me that the Packers would NEVER win the Superbowl after 4 games into the season because they were racked with injuries & Aaron Rodgers was a concussion machine...

'Super Saver' didn't have the DOSAGE INDEX to win the derby...

'Hooper' (a lowly British TV director), could NEVER win an Oscar against the Coen Bros, Darren Aronofsky, or David Fincher...

CV said...

i sense a sell off coming on...

JBTFD

karen said...

Bespoke
Mardi Gras for the markets. http://bit.ly/hlJ1DA

karen said...

no, it's 2001 plus ten years.. look at the bespoke chart linked above.

CV said...

@Amen (3:37)

It's all tied to crude right now...

SIMPLICITY BITCHEZ!

Is crude going to break HIGHER, or LOWER?

My guess is HIGHER...

You call this a 'crisis'??? I'll show you a friggin CRISIS! (well - AT LEAST for another few weeks until I make my quarter)...

ben22 said...

Karen,

re: NLY

it's just in the same consolidation range it's been in almost a year now, nothing to see there, imo.

that BAC chart looks pretty nice, if it breaks that triangle you could easily see $16.

I still think the TLT chart looks like shet, but if you are able to catch a day or two day move in call options on it props to you. I couldn't do it.

in re; banks/XLF
I had wondered if MF's would sector rotate into financials this month, maybe they are, as many were underweight and could cash in techs for big gains this month. All the fundie guys are in a trance right now, repeat after me:

the steeper the yield curve the more profitable the banking industry should be....

Say it again now!

karen said...

i LOVE this chart and think about it a lot:

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/von%20havenstein/GMO%20Montier.jpg

AmenRa said...

karen

They need to state that "past performance is not an indication of future results". Just sayin'

CV said...

that BAC chart looks pretty nice, if it breaks that triangle you could easily see $16.

I still think the TLT chart looks like shet, but if you are able to catch a day or two day move in call options on it props to you. I couldn't do it.

in re; banks/XLF
I had wondered if MF's would sector rotate into financials this month, maybe they are, as many were underweight and could cash in techs for big gains this month. All the fundie guys are in a trance right now, repeat after me:

the steeper the yield curve the more profitable the banking industry should be....

Say it again now!


---

X1

X2

X3

Ron Jaworski said...

"He's seeing the field clearly"

karen said...

Alpha Edge
Wholesale gasoline off 2%. Falls below $3.

I-Man said...

Good for Carl Icahn...

Always liked that dude.

AmenRa said...

XLF keeps violating its SMA(21) with authority and gets support at its SMA(55).

CV said...

"Wholesale gasoline off 2%. Falls below $3"

---

"Wholesale OCTANEoff 2.5%. Falls below $3"

...there, FIXED it!

karen said...

bac 60 min candles perfection for a morning sell off.. just sayn'

karen said...

AR.. look at XLF 60 min candles : )

CV said...

@karen (3:55)

Please let me know (for ENTERTAINMENT purposes only), the moment in time when your Porsche engine starts to sound like a late 70's model Audi DIESEL engine)...

Even though you're pumping PREMIUM gas into it...

karen said...

zerohedge
U.S. TREASURY GETS $6.9 BILLION REPAYMENT FROM AIG which is funded from a treasury loan to AIG

CV said...

@karen (3:59)

JBTFD @ 14.27

AmenRa said...

karen

ROTFLMAO

ben22 said...

ditto I on Icahn

I be he feels a nice sense of satisfaction today

of note, that is an awful lot of heavy hitters that have gotten out of the game in the last 12 months

ben22 said...

AIG should announce that they may pay a dividend, regardless of where said dividend comes from, that should be good for at least 10 handles.

The Bernank said...

"that is an awful lot of heavy hitters that have gotten out of the game in the last 12 months"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SKkMkodo4MI

AmenRa said...

ben22

Should find out if the heavy hitters have any contracts with Toll Bros on some island somewhere.

CV said...

@Amen (4:09)

HEAVY HITTERS... (aka "Sultans of Swing")

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_SEULZIHru0

CV said...

@Amen

& on the SAME SIDE of that TRADE...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACGUasFWVsI&feature=related

karen said...

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/3/8/the-terrible-twos-lets-all-hope-not.html

and how have we been in a bull market? on the economy? LOL

ben22 said...

in looking at many of the stocks in the DOW today it seems at quick glance that lots of stocks are within a three leg move down, just call it A-B-C, and currently many are in the B, countrend leg to the secondary trend.

Look at DD as an example. So I still think there is another leg down to complete this overall move in the market, then we'll go up and retest the highs from 2/18.

Also of note, for the first time in 2011, last week we saw an instance of institutions being net distributors. now they are back to undecided, but this among other things is probably worth watching.

Did a quick look at NYSE highs again today since March 09 rally:

Date/# of 52 weeks highs NYSe:
June 12/2009: 13
8/7/09 (break above 1k): 130
1/8/10: 382
4/23/10: 634
11/5/10: 492
2/18/11: 350

We were over 100 points higher on 2/18/11 than we were on 4/23/10

CV said...

"maybe get a blister on your finger"

"Maybe get a blister on your thumb"


...That little faggot!

Sam the Sham and the Pharaohs said...

"and how have we been in a bull market? on the economy? LOL"

EASY (Al)... Here's how...

WOOLY BULLY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K6P7g_qz2OU

Mel-content said...

CV@2:53

Mel-o rarely misses a moment (crack cocaine n'all)...he's just loathe to type...most of the time;-)...however, I saved this one for you...there are enough ideas here to keep an old man occupied for the rest of his third act.

http://www.refordgardens.com/english/index.php

ben22 said...

EWP, page 81, tenth edition:

If the analyst can easily say to himself, "there is something wrong with this market," chances are it's a B wave. X waves and D waves in expanding triangles, both of which are corrective wave advances, have the same characteristics.

karen said...

ben.. thanks for the morsels.

(Zara paying $8300 sf??) Record-Setting Price Lands Spanish Retailer a Fifth Avenue Flagship http://bit.ly/fVg0q8

CV said...

@MEL-o

Now that's pretty cool...

This is a great time of year... The idea & trust that the frost is going to melt & that the land is going to produce something (so long as you take the time to DANCE with it)...

Thanks for chiming in!

I'm hopin' the S&C reference brought back some memories... :-)

CV

karen said...

barry ritholtz
I'm on Fast Money tonite discussing why the bank rally is a sucker play-- its Its a false belief the banks are getting another free ride $

CV said...

"If the analyst can easily say to himself, "there is something wrong with this market," chances are it's a B wave. X waves and D waves in expanding triangles, both of which are corrective wave advances, have the same characteristics..."

---

CV...Page 1... FIRST EDITION

If the analyst can easily say to himself, "there is something wrong with this market," chances are it's:

- FRBNY
- Mesmerized traders "firing off the trade" with their TD Ameritrade accounts at technical levels
- gnomes

But don't listen to me... I've only written 3 books in my short days on this planet...

& NONE of them were more than 3 degrees of separation (the Kevin Bacon project), from Richard Simmons "Sweatin' to the Oldies" (which THESE DAYS is called "Zumba")... ror

I'm SURE I don't know what I'm talking about... (Now THINK about that last sentence and plot a point of reference on the "x", "y" matrix)...

Just for THE FUN , of course! :-)

CV said...

barry ritholtz
I'm on Fast Money tonite discussing why the bank rally is a sucker play-- its Its a false belief the banks are getting another free ride $


---

barry ritholtz
I'm on "sucker play" tonite discussing why the bank rally is FAST MONEY -- its Its a false belief the banks are getting another free ride $

There... FIXED IT!

Don't make me troll out my ANAGRAM on 'barry ritholtz'

AmenRa said...

Even when the SPX broke thru the 4/23/10 level on 11/4/10 it didn't have as many new highs.

karen said...

Gaddafi opponents meet EU's Ashton http://tinyurl.com/4ckc53s

Mel said...

@CV

"Mel, call the pilots and have them fire up the Lear...I want you take these Anvil cases down to Panama...there'll be a bank shyster to meet on the tarmac."

"Yeah right...do it your fuckin' self."

You mean, "those memories?"

karen said...

CV, that was clever : )

karen said...

excuse me, but with gold:silver at 20 year lows.. something's gotta give.

karen said...

and have you done this one lately?? $usd:$gold

karen said...

another extreme? $gold:$usb

karen said...

seems to me ZIRP and QE have really set the world on fire..

Anonymous said...

you know, everyone is trying to pin 'it' on ZIRP y QE..(from the FedRes)

but, CBs, around the World, esp. the ECB, have been laying out extraordinary amounts of Credit & Fiat, as well..

AAIP

Anonymous said...

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=CQP

how many 'Yield Ho's" got ground up with this one?

ibid.

Anonymous said...

re: above

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/03/08/cheniere-energy-shares-plunged-what-you-need-to-kn.aspx

a good snippet..

I, still, can't believe that they managed to Ramp this POS over $10..

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=LNG

ibid.

karen said...

CQP.. that was something! darn I am already logged out our I'd check it further..

not just our ZIRP and QE.. Japan started it I suppose.. LTCM set the stage as well.

karen said...

$copper.. no chance of that formation playing out either, right? can't have a bull market with copper tanking..

Anonymous said...

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=HG

certainly, doesn't look strong..

may have to re-test ~4,20 ?

although, 4+ is an amazingly rich price for a decent 'Miner' ..

during the '008 unwind, b/e was, roughly, ~1.30/lb. ..

ibid.

LTCM was a 'dress rehersal' for much of what we've been seeing..good point..

AmenRa said...

AAIP

Wow CQP broke thru every MA in three days. I'm going to have to create a chart for future reference.


BTW new thread up.

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