TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Corner 3.9.11

Morning Corner 3.9.11

10yr T-Note (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=up (1 bar)
high= 120.250
rev= 118.500; mid= 119.375

Last week was a bearish engulfing in a downtrend. Doesn't exactly make it a reversal when it's with the trend. Currently it's trading below its weekly 3LB reversal (down) price so the auction may have a tail (spike in yields). But it's now solidly below its SMA(55) and quickly approaching SMA(89). That gives and a spike in yields may be the least of the US worries.

30yr T-Bond (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=up (1 bar)
high= 120.125
rev= 116.281; mid= 118.203

Unlike the 10yr Note the 30yr seems to be decent. It's not below its weekly 3LB mid. It's not below its 50% retrace (117.945). It's been below its SMA(55) for a few weeks and is now getting below its SMA(13) this week. Not expecting too much in yield movement at the auction this week. But that could change if the auction is weak.

TED Spread

Held the upper trend line and is back above its weekly 3LB mid. Euro troubles are bubbling back to the surface.

205 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 1 – 200 of 205 Newer› Newest»

Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-09/palm-oil-may-climb-12-on-shortages-extending-record-food-price-advance.html

"Palm oil, the world’s most consumed cooking oil, may climb 12 percent in the next several weeks on shortages, said Dorab Mistry, who has traded the commodity used by Nestle SA and Unilever for more than 30 years.

The tropical oil, used in candy and instant noodles from Baltimore to Beijing, will probably advance to 4,000 ringgit ($1,319) a metric ton in Kuala Lumpur, said Mistry, director of Godrej International Ltd., who correctly predicted the surge since June. That would add to a 35 percent gain in the past year."; March 9, 2011 at 7:07 AM
Anonymous said...: http://search.yippy.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&v%3Aproject=clusty&query=Palm+Oil

the 'Price' of that stuff should be 'multiples' higher..

LSS: it's a 'Plague', in more ways than one..

AAIP; March 9, 2011 at 7:46 AM
Anonymous said...: but you can't EAT it! :-); March 9, 2011 at 8:06 AM
AmenRa said...: http://preview.tinyurl.com/6j4eogy

Exclusive: Bill Gross Dumps All Treasuries, Brings Total "Government Related" Holdings To Zero, Flees To Cash - No QE3?

And many thought Bill Gross was only posturing when he said he is getting the hell out of dodge. Based on still to be publicly reported data by Pimco's flagship Total Return Fund, the world's largest bond fund, in the month of January, has taken its bond holdings to zero (and -14% on a Duration Weighted Exposure basis). The offset, not surprisingly, is cash. After sporting $28.6 billion in "government related" securities, TRF dropped to $0.0, while its cash holdings surged from $11.9 billion to a whopping $54.5 billion (based on total TRF holdings of $236.9 billion as of February 28). This is the most cash the flagship fund has ever held, and the lowest amount in Treasury holdings since January 2009 before it was made clear that the Fed was going to adjust QE1 to include Treasurys in addition to Mortgage Backed Securities.

***Guess who won't be showing up at an auction near you. Ruh roh?; March 9, 2011 at 9:26 AM
karen said...: good morning! today will be odd.. seesaw, anyone?; March 9, 2011 at 9:33 AM
karen said...: Gross has been woefully wrong about bonds in the past.. LB's model cannot be ruled out and is, in fact, still in play..; March 9, 2011 at 9:35 AM
AmenRa said...: Shhhh! SPX just went below its weekly 3LB mid. Don't tell the algos.; March 9, 2011 at 9:38 AM
karen said...: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/03/sell-financials/; March 9, 2011 at 9:41 AM
karen said...: Stiglitz says Europe faces same 'lost half-decade' as Japan on budget cuts http://is.gd/fQkzT8; March 9, 2011 at 9:45 AM
CV said...: Re: Gross

This is akin to "sitting out a race" (on a 9 race card)...

Who wants to make ANY bets on the QE2-QE3 dark rift??? Betting on the actions of central bankers is like betting on maiden claimers...; March 9, 2011 at 9:49 AM
karen said...: i would say that copper (JJC) did break down its triangle yesterday, confirming today..; March 9, 2011 at 9:52 AM
karen said...: JJC has turned trend chart down..; March 9, 2011 at 9:54 AM
karen said...: Mr. Soros was also asked about Carl C. Icahn, who sent a letter Tuesday informing investors that his funds would return all outside capital.

“Given the rapid market run-up over the past two years and our ongoing concerns about economic outlook, and recent political tensions in the Middle East, I do not wish to be responsible to limited partners through another possible market crisis,” Mr. Icahn wrote.

Asked whether he thought Mr. Icahn was right to think the current market environment posed threats for hedge funds, Mr. Soros said simply: “Carl Icahn has his own problems.”

Mr. Icahn’s former right-hand man, Keith Meister, was reported in December to be planning his own event-driven fund, seeded with $250 million from Soros Funds. The new firm is called Corvex Capital, and it also has attracted Mr. Icahn’s former chief operating officer, Rupal Doshi, Hedge Fund Alert said.

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/03/09/soros-the-world-does-need-order/; March 9, 2011 at 9:58 AM
karen said...: http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2011/03/happy-2-year-anniversary-bull-market.html

According to this Bloomberg story, $12 TRILLION has been pumped into the financial system by governments and central banks - that's simply astounding. It's almost equivalent to a full year of GDP by the world's largest economy.; March 9, 2011 at 10:01 AM
karen said...: http://macro-man.blogspot.com/2011/03/equities-bi-winning-but-for-how-long.html

Must Read Macroman/TMM; March 9, 2011 at 10:08 AM
CV said...: $12 TRILLION has been pumped into the financial system by governments and central banks

So what does $12 trillion buy you these days???

About 2,000 DOW points?; March 9, 2011 at 10:15 AM
CV said...: That's about $6 billion per point...

Roughly the size of a daily POMO...; March 9, 2011 at 10:16 AM
CV said...: They could have just sent each person on the planet a check for $2,000 (or, an ounce of gold, plus about 20 pieces of silver) and called it a day...

Oh wait... They don't have all that gold and silver to hand out...

NEVERMIND...; March 9, 2011 at 10:19 AM
karen said...: Bespoke
Not to be a wet blanket, but unless the S&P 500 makes a new closing high (above 1,343), the bull market ended on 2/18. $$; March 9, 2011 at 10:30 AM
karen said...: http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/03/09/apple-ibm-other-big-stocks-have-dominated-two-year-bull-run/

While the S&P 500 has added $6.2 trillion in market cap over the past two years, 10 stocks have been dominating the party, accounting for slightly more than 20% of the total increase.; March 9, 2011 at 10:37 AM
karen said...: Keith McCullough
I wonder if the Bernank knows what the VIX is

Dear Bernank, LTCM didn't factor volatility into their "forecasts" either - dont sweat it
3 minutes ago; March 9, 2011 at 10:39 AM
ben22 said...: Karen,

from your link:

"One amazing statistic I had not know was that the 3rd year of a presidential term has not been negative since 1939. This is generally the time the president tries to juice the economy to win re-election, so maybe we've always had a form of 'goosing the market' - it is just much more explicit nowadays."

I like mystical thinking, it allows us to tell such wonderful stories. In our ever so efficient markets our president is "goosing" (tr.v. goosed, goos·ing, goos·es Slang: To move to action; spur: goosed the governor to sign the tax bill)
the economy and thus the markets. This is such a compelling argument, how could it not be true?! Since this is the case, I guess then Democrats have to give credit to Reagan and the GOP credit to FDR what with all the wonderful things that happened in the economy and markets after they took over.

While we are patting each other on the backs, all of us should give credit to that Adolph Hitler as well, not for his acts against humanity of course, but for what a great gooser he was! That economic expansion in Germany that occured after he took over was epic.

further down, I see Bloomberg has allowed LameHo "Favorite Stock for 2008 is AIG" Birinyi to totally re-write history. this line from the second para of the BLOOM article:

"Laszlo Birinyi, who told clients to buy as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell to a 12-year low of 676.53 on March 9, 2009."

Come again?

that is really, hilarious, for anyone willing to do maybe 15 minutes of digging, but sure, why the hell not, he bought the lows and that man has been "right about everything".....oh....and the stock market started in 1962, anything before that should be ignored, different world, no iPads, no NFLX, and most importantly, no Twitter.

As for the 12 trillion, that's funny, but why bother talking about what it really is, lets just pretend it's been "pumped in" and like a big balloon it will float into the atmosphere, then to space, and then beyond, forever and ever. I want to be on the big balloon. Don't you?

alright, gotta head out, I heard about buying the dip from a guy that knows about these things, I don't really know exactly what this guy does, but I respect that he's out there doing it. I care desperately about what I do though. Do I know what dip I'm buying? No. Do I even know anything about any of these companies? No. But I'm here, and I'm gonna give it my best shot.; March 9, 2011 at 10:46 AM
karen said...: Keith McCullough
The entire world is now betting against The Bernank in the currency market - highest USD cumulative short position since 2003 $UUP; March 9, 2011 at 10:58 AM
ben22 said...: I keep seeing effing flags everywhere

just an idea on symmetrical triangles to throw out, since they are basically everywhere still:

1. There is seldom any clue given on the one chart containing the triangle to tell which direction prices are going to break out of the pattern until it finally occurs. Sometimes you can get a pretty good idea of what is likely to happen by observing what is going on at the same time in charts of other stocks.

(IMO, we've only seen a two leg move in a lot of individual stocks, so I think odds are this triangle breaks down)

lets say it doesn't and goes up (though this applies in either case)

2. pg 103, Edwards and McGee: the farther out into the apex of the Triangle prices push without bursting its boundaries, the less force or power the pattern seems to have. the best moves up or down seem to ensue when prices break out at a point somewhere between half and 3/4 of the distance of the base (left hand end) to the apex.; March 9, 2011 at 10:59 AM
karen said...: Ben.. that is fascinating from Edwards and McGee... also, you didn't comment/reply on the Richard Lehmann video link..

Richard Koo: How the West is Repeating Japan’s Mistakes http://dlvr.it/JkNTX; March 9, 2011 at 11:01 AM
karen said...: $copper really broke down now..; March 9, 2011 at 11:04 AM
karen said...: broke the triangle, i mean.. whether it breaks the neckline has me on the edge of my seat..; March 9, 2011 at 11:05 AM
ben22 said...: I still haven't watched it yet 8-)

Will do this afternoon; March 9, 2011 at 11:07 AM
karen said...: it is short! i'm watching the Koo video now..; March 9, 2011 at 11:10 AM
CV said...: and the stock market started in 1962, anything before that should be ignored, different world, no iPads, no NFLX, and most importantly, no Twitter

---

CV has a PLAN...

They ought to schedule "The Olympics" every year (maybe even twice a year from here on out)...

Look how well Greece is doing only 8 short years after hosting...

An economic miracle!; March 9, 2011 at 11:11 AM
AmenRa said...: If I were a country I would seriously consider voting to never host The Olympics. All of the funds spent on infrastructure that goes to waste when it's over. Better off picking one country agreeable to all and use it for the Olympics. Each country would then pay into a fund for maintenance and security. JTOL.

Wait a minute. That sounds eerily similar to the IMF's bailout fund. n/m; March 9, 2011 at 11:33 AM
karen said...: oops on copper.. neckline broken.. now will there be follow-thru??; March 9, 2011 at 11:37 AM
karen said...: silver.. gold... crude next??; March 9, 2011 at 11:37 AM
CV said...: "oops on copper.. neckline broken"

---

Does that mean that Marc Faber is going to hit the airwaves and tell me my nickles are now "WURTHLEZZ"???; March 9, 2011 at 11:42 AM
AmenRa said...: These up moves today have been quite vicious. Throwing everything plus the kitchen sink to keep this market afloat.; March 9, 2011 at 11:42 AM
ben22 said...: karen,

that's a solid H&S on copper, good looking out, and I've not really seen anyone talk about it.

break looks good too, would think the minimum price target would have something like JJC approach that 200 day if it's the real deal.; March 9, 2011 at 11:45 AM
karen said...: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/09/a-note-on-oil/

that cinches it. krugman is truly clueless.; March 9, 2011 at 11:45 AM
I-Man said...: Thx for the YM chart last night, Ra!; March 9, 2011 at 11:49 AM
Anonymous said...: http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=HG&p=w1

getting that re-test of ~4.20 on ye olde 'Red Metal'..

AAIP; March 9, 2011 at 11:52 AM
karen said...: http://www.futuresmag.com/News/2011/3/Pages/Defending-crude-oil-speculators.aspx; March 9, 2011 at 11:56 AM
karen said...: FCX sell off continues.. catch a falling knife?; March 9, 2011 at 12:01 PM
karen said...: $indu breakout??; March 9, 2011 at 12:02 PM
Gus in Alaska said...: CV et al.,

Just a few words from a long-time lurker up here in Alaska. My partner went to a local Chinese restaurant yesterday and received the obligatory fortune cookie -- she brought the little fortune home and this is what it said:

"You will have gold pieces by the bushel -- better than stocks!"

ROR

Socionomics?!

Many(!) thanks to all of you for this blog -- I have learned so much from each and every one of you.; March 9, 2011 at 12:02 PM
I-Man said...: This shit is a fucking battlefield today...; March 9, 2011 at 12:04 PM
I-Man said...: Long Kenai Kings...; March 9, 2011 at 12:05 PM
karen said...: Jeff Gundlach on cnbc.. no link yet.; March 9, 2011 at 12:06 PM
karen said...: I love fortune cookies!! thank you for the story, Gus : ); March 9, 2011 at 12:07 PM
Anonymous said...: speaking of..

"Bespoke
Not to be a wet blanket, but unless the S&P 500 makes a new closing high (above 1,343), the bull market ended on 2/18. $$"

the 'Equity' Markets, since that Date, look like G*rbage..

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1

ibid.; March 9, 2011 at 12:09 PM
CV said...: If Cu goes down to test its 200MA (which it appears it is at risk of doing)...

What really changes in the broader picture?

All you'd really be doing is taking out the PREMIUM between the spot price now, and what WAS the spot price around 8/08 when the margin rout commenced...

You'd have to go a lot lower than the 200 MA to really be talking about a collapse in prices there...

I'd say the situation is about as logical as one might expect...

Qe2 - Qe3 is all anything is about...

Threaten to take the punch bowl away, prices collapse for awhile... Ride to the rescue when everyone cries uncle...

Jawbone, Jawbone, Jawbone...; March 9, 2011 at 12:14 PM
karen said...: NEW BOOK OUT!

http://www.amazon.com/Crapshoot-Investing-Tech-Savvy-Clueless-Regulators/dp/0132599686

Crapshoot Investing: How Tech-Savvy Traders and Clueless Regulators Turned the Stock Market into a Casino [Hardcover]
Jim McTague (Author); March 9, 2011 at 12:17 PM
Anonymous said...: karen,

and, some wonder why I've been making cracks about ~'flipping your Lucky 50c-piece'...

ibid..; March 9, 2011 at 12:20 PM
CV said...: @Gus in Alaska

Many are unaware that "the Bernank's" name IN CHINESE is:

Li Ying; March 9, 2011 at 12:20 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Whew. Finally got into the mine.

The palm oil thingy I posted this morning was just another thing....I am wondering...clothes check, food check, energy check...even the cost of cooking food. Cost-push..

Yes, the cost-push inflation thing may be with us for awhile, but the huge debt monster in the closet in my opinion trumps it.

...But it will be interesting to see how it plays out..; March 9, 2011 at 12:21 PM
karen said...: $INDU still in triangle on weekly chart.. no sweat yet !; March 9, 2011 at 12:25 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Amen:

The Bill Gross thing is fascinating. Truly.

Since he's actually put his money where his mouth is, I will have to start paying more attention to him...I am afraid I was dismissing him as trying to sway opinion to help out with earnings...apparently these were true beliefs..; March 9, 2011 at 12:27 PM
CV said...: @Bruce (12:21)

I went out and bought a bunch of pairs of blue jeans the other day...

Rumor has it that they were BIG in Moscow in 1989...; March 9, 2011 at 12:29 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: I bought new jeans myself CV last week...15 bucks for Wranglers...

When I retire, jeans 24/7.; March 9, 2011 at 12:35 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: In one week we get the PPI and CPI...

Wouldn't it be something, I mean really something, if after that data that S&P downgraded US debt by one notch..

Yep, you're right, just not in the realm of possible things...more likely Lefty gets a date with Swedish twins.........; March 9, 2011 at 12:38 PM
karen said...: IBM, rolling my eyes, broke out (and up) again! UFB..

CAT is still in a triangle.; March 9, 2011 at 12:39 PM
Anonymous said...: 12 Arizonans charged in mortgage fraud scheme
7 minutes ago

(AP:PHOENIX) Federal prosecutors say 12 Arizonans are charged in a multimillion-dollar mortgage fraud conspiracy.

U.S. Attorney for Arizona Dennis Burke says in two cases, the defendants illegally obtained more than $19 million in loans and more than $5 million in cash back loan proceeds.

Prosecutors say the defendants are charged with various counts of conspiracy, conspiracy to commit wire fraud, wire fraud, aggravated identity theft, money laundering and conspiracy to commit transactional money laundering.
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=6897682827180790

one of many^many, a, true, 'drop in the Bucket'..

ibid.; March 9, 2011 at 12:41 PM
karen said...: MCP at apex of triangle..; March 9, 2011 at 12:43 PM
Anonymous said...: to go with thos Blue Jeans..

don't forget
http://www.cheapestees.com/hanesbeefyt.html

AAIP; March 9, 2011 at 12:43 PM
Anonymous said...: http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=MCP

looking like ~40..

ibid.

the rareearth.lotteryticket.com game has been 'Played' .. those 'valuations' are Insane~

"Crazy Eddie" would be Proud..; March 9, 2011 at 12:47 PM
karen said...: interesting that yesterday's IBM investor day reversed the H&S on the chart..
if this isn't institutional distribution, JBTFD; March 9, 2011 at 12:48 PM
AmenRa said...: State AG's have to play up smaller cases before the public gets their head around the foreclosure screw up. Once the public realizes the state AG's let the banks off yet again the public should start calling for their resignation.; March 9, 2011 at 12:51 PM
ben22 said...: thing about fortune cookies is, I thought you were supposed to add "in bed" at the end of each one?

is that not true?; March 9, 2011 at 12:52 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: I have fairly simple question:

It seems to me for the last year or so when stocks in Europe tank at the end of the day, that we tend to close in a similar fashion. Is that true or just happenstance?; March 9, 2011 at 12:52 PM
Andy T said...: What a chopfest on the SP500....we're building up for "something" to happen....; March 9, 2011 at 12:52 PM
karen said...: Mark Thoma
Slowing China - Barry Eichengreen - http://icio.us/UUrNRD; March 9, 2011 at 12:55 PM
I-Man said...: @ AT

Makes stop placement a real bitch...; March 9, 2011 at 12:59 PM
karen said...: ben.. ha ha, never heard that. here are the 3 fortunes i've saved keep taped inside (liquor) cabinet door:

Good Health will be ours for a long time.. in bed.

You will be coming into a fortune.. in bed.

Fortune smiles upon you at this time.. in bed.; March 9, 2011 at 12:59 PM
I-Man said...: Makes the I wanna take a 357 Mag to the head of this bull...; March 9, 2011 at 1:00 PM
ben22 said...: See how good it works Karen. I love to play that game at CV's favorite overpriced PF Changs.

On another note, I have T. Petty Breakdown in my head.

Do they say anything about triangles in that song?; March 9, 2011 at 1:02 PM
I-Man said...: Make that a 12 gauge with slugs...

Or fuck it, I'll just shove a stick of dynamite up its snout.; March 9, 2011 at 1:02 PM
karen said...: Yesterday on Twitter someone said to replace the word "lube" for love in popular song/movie titles or sayings..

Lube the One You are With
Lube Me Tender
Lube Will Keep Us Together..; March 9, 2011 at 1:03 PM
ben22 said...: What's Lube Got To Do With It?

All you Need is Lube

Lube the one you're with!; March 9, 2011 at 1:05 PM
I-Man said...: One Lube.; March 9, 2011 at 1:06 PM
spoonman said...: You guys are killing me. I almost just spit my lunch out all over the computer...; March 9, 2011 at 1:09 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Lube with a proper stranger.; March 9, 2011 at 1:10 PM
karen said...: ben! my gal in dallas just emailed me out of the blue.. forwarded to you as a fellow watch lover (not luber, lol!); March 9, 2011 at 1:11 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Lube means never having to say you're sorry..; March 9, 2011 at 1:11 PM
AmenRa said...: Lube makes the world go around.; March 9, 2011 at 1:15 PM
I-Man said...: Lube is a battlefield...; March 9, 2011 at 1:16 PM
AmenRa said...: Lube ballad.
All is fair in lube.
Lube me in a special way.
Lube injection.; March 9, 2011 at 1:18 PM
Anonymous said...: All you need is lube:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-09/human-penises-evolved-to-promote-longer-sex-researchers-say.html; March 9, 2011 at 1:20 PM
Anonymous said...: Lube Hurts?

Lube Stinks.; March 9, 2011 at 1:20 PM
AmenRa said...: Better lube.
Never lube again.
Inside my lube.
A Lubers Holiday.; March 9, 2011 at 1:20 PM
karen said...: WASHINGTON |
Wed Mar 9, 2011 12:55pm EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The head of National Public Radio resigned on Wednesday after the organization’s chief fund-raiser was secretly videotaped criticizing conservatives and questioning whether NPR needs its government funding.

The resignation of president and chief executive officer Vivian Schiller came as Republicans in Congress, some of whom have long opposed what they see as NPR’s liberal bias, were targeting public broadcasting as an area for budget cuts.

On Tuesday, senior fund-raising executive Ron Schiller, no relation to the CEO, quit after being taped making disparaging remarks about members of the conservative Tea Party movement during a private lunch with conservative activists posing as potential donors.

A statement from the chairman of the NPR board of directors, Dave Edwards, said the news of Vivian Schiller’s departure coincided with “a traumatic period for NPR and the larger public radio community.”

Edwards’ statement said the board accepted her resignation “with understanding, genuine regret and great respect for her leadership.” NPR’s media reporter, however, sent a tweet saying that Schiller was forced out by the board.

NPR has been campaigning to retain its federal funding as Congress seeks deep cuts in many areas to address a huge budget deficit.

NPR says only about two percent of its revenue comes from federal funding, through grants from the Corporation for Public Broadcasting and federal agencies like the Departments of Education and Commerce.

NPR’s biggest revenue share comes from program fees and dues paid by member stations that broadcast NPR programs. But the member stations are heavily reliant upon funding from federal and state governments as well as the Corporation for Public Broadcasting and many are financially threatened.

NPR drew fierce criticism from some conservative media and Republican critics last year when it abruptly fired news analyst Juan Williams, who was also a commentator for FOX news, after he made controversial comments about Muslims.

(Reporting by Deborah Charles; Editing by David Storey); March 9, 2011 at 1:21 PM
ben22 said...: Karen,

Wow, that's a nice one, really nice, wife doesn't like yellow gold though, she's into the white gold....

Ok, while we are all having a good time, here's another thing that's fun to do, put the word anal in front of Ford auto models, works for other companies too, but I'm fond of Ford:

Anal Ranger
Anal Probe
Anal Fiesta
Anal Focus
Anal Edge
Anal Tempo

and on, and on

Sorry....used to have a lot of free time.; March 9, 2011 at 1:21 PM
AmenRa said...: Anon

I'm wondering how that discussion will go with the Bloomberg anchors...; March 9, 2011 at 1:23 PM
karen said...: love this! How humans got big brains, barbless penises http://dlvr.it/Jl0v7; March 9, 2011 at 1:23 PM
AmenRa said...: ben22

I think Ford does that when they come up with the names anyway.; March 9, 2011 at 1:26 PM
karen said...: ben, she needs both.. it's an investment! LOL..; March 9, 2011 at 1:26 PM
karen said...: Libyan business jet is in European airspace,unclear where it is headed, NATO official says - AP http://on.msnbc.com/dOH8yR; March 9, 2011 at 1:29 PM
ben22 said...: a funny story from CPalace shops in Vegas when I was looking at Cartier there a few years ago.

My buddy says to the salesman:

"When do these watches go on sale?"

Response:

"When you write a check or give me a credit card."; March 9, 2011 at 1:30 PM
AmenRa said...: You know these articles could be PR for "ribbed"...; March 9, 2011 at 1:31 PM
ben22 said...: while the triangle grinds on, I heard a no fly zone would cost us roughly $1 billion per year.

Seems like a relative bargain eh?; March 9, 2011 at 1:31 PM
ben22 said...: CV,

How many tilapia would you trade me for a gold watch? How about a gold watch with a chronograph?

I'd prefer Perch of course, but just trying to plan ahead if SHTF.; March 9, 2011 at 1:35 PM
Anonymous said...: Never Gonna Fall in Lube Again; March 9, 2011 at 1:35 PM
karen said...: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-driver-gold-you’re-not-watching; March 9, 2011 at 1:39 PM
karen said...: http://www.businessinsider.com/bill-gross-no-way-out-of-debt-trap-us-living-standards-doomed-to-fail-2011-3; March 9, 2011 at 1:41 PM
karen said...: anyone look at a C chart lately?; March 9, 2011 at 1:44 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Lube me or leave me....; March 9, 2011 at 1:46 PM
karen said...: another triangle breakdown: RIMM; March 9, 2011 at 1:46 PM
karen said...: Oh, my those were some good ones! I'll never fall in lube again.. sounds good to me!; March 9, 2011 at 1:49 PM
Jennifer said...: Hi everyone! I've been out all day -- thanks for not letting the triangle break without me.; March 9, 2011 at 1:49 PM
ben22 said...: I think AT is right....something big coming here

Like the last song they wrote together

I've Got a Feeling

could just be the lube though....

on another note, the JPM/Silver stuff seems to be reaching a fever pitch.; March 9, 2011 at 1:49 PM
Jennifer said...: Karen -- MCP reports either tonight or tomorrow morning I think, so I wouldn't want to bet on that triangle.; March 9, 2011 at 1:51 PM
karen said...: i won't tweet this tip but someone here should short RIMM.. triangle breakdown and all..; March 9, 2011 at 1:51 PM
I-Man said...: A waterfall would be nice...; March 9, 2011 at 1:52 PM
Anonymous said...: Can't help falling in lube
I used to lube her
When a man lubes a woman
Lube shack
Will you lube me tomorrow
Everybody needs someone to lube
50 ways to leave your luber...; March 9, 2011 at 1:52 PM
Anonymous said...: Anal Tempo ?? time warp?

try,

Anal Fusion .

ibid.; March 9, 2011 at 1:52 PM
ben22 said...: could also be a short term H&S on RIMM

Head is 2/18, good volume for the pattern, maxed out in the left shoulder, feb 10 or 11 at quick glance.

Might have also broken the intermediate trend line from August 2010 lows, depends on how you draw it though...; March 9, 2011 at 1:52 PM
karen said...: zerohedge
Nomura Commodity Desk Liquidation Blamed For Commodity Weakness http://is.gd/HeK7s0; March 9, 2011 at 1:53 PM
Anonymous said...: J-

good call on MCP, reports Today, after the Close..

http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=161&f=earningsdate_nextdays5&o=-marketcap

ibid.; March 9, 2011 at 1:56 PM
ben22 said...: ibid,

I learned to drive in an Anal Tempo. We had some great moments together, one involving a mail box and a bottle of water, another involving some soccer fields full of snow, and still another in a drive buy water ballooning of the girls Volleyball team.

Used to rock out to my tape of this song in that car:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jlcfQGj134o; March 9, 2011 at 1:57 PM
karen said...: just found a real bull market guy on twitter.. BAC to $15 he says..

spy pennant will resolve up.. his best tweet of today:

allstarcharts J.C. Parets
I love to see shorts get squeezed. If we start to see an $XLF rally, pick your favorite bank. Risk management #1 priority $C $BAC $KRE $$; March 9, 2011 at 1:58 PM
karen said...: Louise Yamada predictions - $80 Silver, $2,000 Gold & $140 Oil http://bit.ly/fobiGY; March 9, 2011 at 2:00 PM
karen said...: Dynegy warns it may have to file for bankruptcy http://yhoo.it/h0nyVN; March 9, 2011 at 2:00 PM
karen said...: Breaking News
Magnitude 6.0 earthquake near the east coast of Japan - usgs http://1.usa.gov/hULaSL; March 9, 2011 at 2:01 PM
Jennifer said...: ES can't seem to break beneath VWAP. Had to visit my dear friends at the emergency room again yesterday evening...first warm day in months so oldest face planted off her scooter onto the sidewalk and demolished her nose. She looks bad today but they say she'll be fine.; March 9, 2011 at 2:01 PM
Jennifer said...: Karen -- I like Louise, but I still remember a spectacularly bad call for 65 on the $dxy a couple of years ago, right before bucky really took off.; March 9, 2011 at 2:05 PM
karen said...: Jennifer keep those stories coming.. Ben will never have children and I'll be increasing happy mine are nearly grown and gone! (my youngest, the one with burst appendix this past fall in hospital 3k away is reported this morning he may now have mono..); March 9, 2011 at 2:06 PM
karen said...: why do i feel like a bloody mary all of a sudden? i know i don't look like a bloody mary..; March 9, 2011 at 2:06 PM
I-Man said...: I eat bulls for breakfast...; March 9, 2011 at 2:07 PM
AmenRa said...: Jennifer

Glad she'll be ok. I have enough scars and scrapes from being a kid to last two lifetimes.; March 9, 2011 at 2:07 PM
Jennifer said...: Thanks...for a little nose, there was a lot of blood!; March 9, 2011 at 2:09 PM
ben22 said...: might reveal his bullish bias by calling the SPY a pennant. It's a triangle to these eyes.

Why's that different?

triangles can be key reversal patterns, Flags and Pennants are ONLY consolidation patterns.

I think the best clue is volume in this case, volume tends to diminish more rapidly in pennants than it does in flags or triangles. A quick glance at SPY volume and you can see that's not happening.; March 9, 2011 at 2:09 PM
Jennifer said...: This has to break today, right? I don't think I can wait much longer.; March 9, 2011 at 2:10 PM
karen said...: sorry Jenn.. the market loves to string us along.. surely their will be a trick.. anyway, no suspense.. JBTFD !!; March 9, 2011 at 2:12 PM
AmenRa said...: This sentiment seesaw is driving me nuts. Above weekly 3Lb mid is bullish and below is bearish. Today is a 15 round fight where neither fighter will go down.; March 9, 2011 at 2:13 PM
karen said...: oh no! another one IWM..; March 9, 2011 at 2:13 PM
AmenRa said...: The reincarnated PT Barnum says "JBTFD!!!"; March 9, 2011 at 2:14 PM
AmenRa said...: Today the market is similar to a multiple car wreck. You want to look away but you can't.; March 9, 2011 at 2:19 PM
karen said...: i just got goose bumps.. WSJ Wall Street Journal

We just published our annual list of the top 50 venture-backed companies: http://on.wsj.com/eZ202J

i have a lot of shares in #49; March 9, 2011 at 2:20 PM
I-Man said...: I've never had this many huge gains retrace so fast...

The double edged sword of VOL...; March 9, 2011 at 2:20 PM
I-Man said...: Jenn, if this sucka dont break today and close on the lows...

I am so wrong in my work I dont even want to contemplate it.; March 9, 2011 at 2:21 PM
karen said...: Brenna Hardman
Massive trade just put up in $XLF a minute ago .. looks like a buyer of 120K June 18 calls for .31 on #CBOE; March 9, 2011 at 2:23 PM
Ben22 said...: thanks for the Yamada link, love her. Those are some bold calls, going to try and see her in Philly this summer if she comes around.; March 9, 2011 at 2:25 PM
Anonymous said...: k-

re:
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=C

why the wide-on for C?

anyway, looks like it has 2 'overheads' the MA(s) @~4.70 & ~4.80 ..
~~

McB,

that's interesting..way back when, I was 'between vehicles' .. drove my sister-in-laws Merc. Topaz --the sister car to the Tempo--between her lack of PM, and the car's native, Metric induced,'quirkiness', it was something else..

though, for the Price, 0 , it was hard to beat..

but, sometimes, it felt like those old 'Service Station'-gags, from the '50s, ~"fill the Fluids, and check the Gas.."

ibid.; March 9, 2011 at 2:27 PM
karen said...: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lawrence-g-mcdonald/a-new-world-financial-ord_b_833227.html; March 9, 2011 at 2:27 PM
karen said...: my opinion? QE2 will be more damaging than previously imagined. the law of unintended consequences and the unknown unknowns.; March 9, 2011 at 2:29 PM
ben22 said...: I don't recall that Tempo being very reliable either, though I might have had some, or maybe lots, to do with that.; March 9, 2011 at 2:32 PM
I-Man said...: Feel lucky dippers?; March 9, 2011 at 2:35 PM
Anonymous said...: k-

like this: Service-now.com Inc.?

AAIP

b22,

most of it had to do with her lack of PM, I will say that given the abuse it endured, it kept 'ticking' -- the 5-sp Manual, certainly, helped, though, I'm sure..; March 9, 2011 at 2:36 PM
karen said...: http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/03/09/ibms-big-move-bolstering-the-dow/; March 9, 2011 at 2:39 PM
ben22 said...: I bet lots of traders are just waiting around to fire off some TD orders as CV might say.

once it breaks I would imagine folks will pile on, think a lot of people are just waiting around.

I'm still expecting more downside, it's only been one leg down and sideways, pretty rare if it would stop at that point, but not impossible.; March 9, 2011 at 2:39 PM
Jennifer said...: once it breaks I would imagine folks will pile on, think a lot of people are just waiting around.

That's what I'm doing here!; March 9, 2011 at 2:42 PM
Anonymous said...: k-

you may want to check if they're attending
http://symposium.uptimeinstitute.com/symposium-2011-registration/?utm_source=miscrit&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=email-miscrit

ibid.

"...Uptime Institute is excited to open registration for Symposium 2011. Now in its sixth year, the Uptime Institute Symposium, taking place on May 9-12, 2011 at the Santa Clara Convention Center, is the most influential all-stakeholder thought-leadership conference serving the data center industry, and attracts speakers and Delegates from over 40 countries. This year's Symposium, The Disrupted Data Center: Cloud, Cost, Capacity and Carbon, focuses on how data center planners, designers, builders, owners and operators can anticipate and respond to disruptive changes such as cloud computing, virtualization, volatile demand and rapidly evolving modular architectures..."; March 9, 2011 at 2:43 PM
bob said...: Anal Taurus. Did a lot of off-roading in that thing. Always had to stop at the car wash before I went home.

My favorite was the original caravan, wooden panel doors. Cruising through corn fields with a navigator on the top.

For parents- Don't let your kids drive the minivan, if you have one. I was the first to get my licence, and had about 12 people in the car doing a speed test the first day I got my license.

How could that have possibly turned out bad?; March 9, 2011 at 2:43 PM
ben22 said...: Wooden Panel Doors

Yes!; March 9, 2011 at 2:43 PM
karen said...: yes, Service-Now.; March 9, 2011 at 2:44 PM
karen said...: Bank of America says nearly half its mortgages are 'bad' http://bit.ly/i0eQEN

NicTrades Nicola
$NZD RBNZ rate decision in 15mins, will they cut or will they hold. %% AUDNZD my favourite trade for this; March 9, 2011 at 2:46 PM
karen said...: here is another Bull i haven't unfollowed:

MarketFinancial The Market Financial
Both $OIL and $GLD are bull flagging $SPY $SPX; March 9, 2011 at 2:46 PM
karen said...: the market is too quite.. i'm about to lose it, laughing.; March 9, 2011 at 2:47 PM
ben22 said...: Karen,

do these folks on twitter have any kind of track record?

A lot of these patterns mentioned are pretty weak analysis like that mention of the pennant, unless Im reading it wrong, for example, the SPY is not a flag, the price swings are just too large for it to be that.; March 9, 2011 at 2:49 PM
CV said...: If Louise Yamada is right about $80 silver...

Then $35.50 would be a .618 RETRACE of $80 back to $8...

Right where the market has been busy painting lines the past few days...; March 9, 2011 at 2:51 PM
karen said...: Douglas Kass
gun to head, stocks could begin to decouple a bit from crude price. bulls might be surprised if a few dollar drop in oil yields stock drop; March 9, 2011 at 2:52 PM
karen said...: http://pragcap.com/the-muni-state-of-denial-and-huge-risks-in-high-yield

JGundlach on cnbc link; March 9, 2011 at 2:52 PM
CV said...: $2000 gold/$80 silver would also take the ratio down to 25:1...

Still shy of the 5,000 year old 16:1 standard weighting...; March 9, 2011 at 2:53 PM
spoonman said...: Dougie Kass seems to have lot of guns pointed at his head. I feel bad for him.; March 9, 2011 at 2:53 PM
CV said...: I gotta admit though, if I saw $2,000 to $80 at the same time, I'd probably convert a little silver to gold there...; March 9, 2011 at 2:55 PM
CV said...: @spoonman

I feel bad for Obama...

All these things in the Middle East & high gas prices HAVE to be cutting into his time dedicated to filling out his NCAA bracketology...; March 9, 2011 at 2:57 PM
Anonymous said...: http://search.yippy.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&v%3Aproject=clusty&query=Williston+Basin+Bakken+

AAIP; March 9, 2011 at 2:58 PM
karen said...: ben, twitter has all kinds.. i will unfollow marketfinancial.. it is a web-site apparently.. maybe it offers a paid service.. i don't know.. or care.

http://www.TheMarketFinancial.com/; March 9, 2011 at 2:59 PM
karen said...: and ZH's take: Gundlach Sees Munis Dropping Another 15-20%, "By The Time All Muni Shoes Drop It Will Look Like Imelda Marcos' Closet" http://is.gd/3FLSby; March 9, 2011 at 3:01 PM
ben22 said...: "All these things in the Middle East & high gas prices HAVE to be cutting into his time dedicated to filling out his NCAA bracketology..."

highly doubtful, he seems to have more free time for stuff like that than most people I know, and he's such a baller himself, after all.; March 9, 2011 at 3:01 PM
karen said...: Reserve Bank of New Zealand: 50bp cut to 2/5%; March 9, 2011 at 3:01 PM
I-Man said...: It can be helpful to view other traders ineptitude and misapplication of technical patterns...

Gives you a good sense of your competition.

:); March 9, 2011 at 3:01 PM
I-Man said...: Whats beautiful is they probably say the same shit about me/I/whatever.; March 9, 2011 at 3:03 PM
Anonymous said...: I-Bro,

some of that Silicon, ain't so Silly..

:)

AAIP; March 9, 2011 at 3:03 PM
bob said...: http://www.forexlive.com/172157/all/reuters-blowing-up-left-and-right

This is big east tourney week, rutgers st john's on now. There is always a TON of bandwidth given to streams of basketball this week. I wonder how much effect this really has.

espn3, you can watch most games in very good quality, on the computer; March 9, 2011 at 3:07 PM
ben22 said...: speaking of basketball

nova has basically fallen apart

are they even going to get in now?; March 9, 2011 at 3:08 PM
I-Man said...: Fuck this, I need a break from market related talk.

See yall on the flipside.; March 9, 2011 at 3:10 PM
bob said...: Nova is good, very tough conference this year, this is just the last fist fight before the big dance.; March 9, 2011 at 3:12 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Star-crossed lubers...; March 9, 2011 at 3:16 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: The lube of my life..; March 9, 2011 at 3:17 PM
karen said...: http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2011/03/pimcos-total-return-fund-pttax-worlds.html; March 9, 2011 at 3:18 PM
karen said...: Brenna Hardman
$EEM: someone just bought 3K May 48/50 call spreads for .78. Lots of bullish activity in $EEM - see vid: http://tinyurl.com/6zq2dnk; March 9, 2011 at 3:19 PM
CV said...: The Big East Conference Championship wipes so many of the 'deep runners' out emotionally, they end up getting bounced in the NCAA's before they even get a chance to make it to the final 4 or elite 8...

That's one of my "rules" of bracketology...

Fade the conference champions...; March 9, 2011 at 3:19 PM
CV said...: or I should say "tournament conference champions"...; March 9, 2011 at 3:20 PM
Anonymous said...: Via: Foreign Policy Journal:

In his important 2006 book, Nemesis, the Last Days of the American Republic, the third and concluding part of a trilogy, the late Chalmers Johnson, who was an expert on Japan and US foreign policy, writes that as much as 40% of the Pentagon budget is “black,” meaning hidden from public scrutiny.[1] If the figure is even approximately correct, and I believe it is, the number is alarming because it suggests that democratic oversight of US military research and development has broken down. In which case our democratic values and way of life are presently at risk; not from without, as there is no foreign enemy that can destroy the US Constitution, but from within.

I would argue that Chalmers Johnson’s estimate was corroborated on September 10, 2001, on the eve of the worst terrorist attack in US history, when Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld acknowledged during a press conference that the Department of Defense (DoD) could not account for $2.3 trillion of the massive Pentagon budget, a number so large as to be incomprehensible.[2] Any remaining hope that the US military might still get its budgetary house in order were dashed at 9:38 am the next morning, when the west wing of the Pentagon exploded in flames and smoke, the target of a terrorist strike. Incredibly, the exact point of impact was the DoD’s accounting offices on the first floor. The surgical destruction of its records and staff, nearly all of whom died in the attack, raises important questions about who benefited from 9/11. Given the Pentagon’s vast size, the statistical odds against this being a coincidence prompted skeptics of the official story to read a dark design into the attack. As Deep Throat said: “Follow the money.”...
http://cryptogon.com/?p=20992; March 9, 2011 at 3:20 PM
bob said...: CV, completely agree, the refs like to see fights, takes a lot out of the teams, and now so many teams...It's not worth winning, but always fun to watch.; March 9, 2011 at 3:21 PM
ben22 said...: AT,

Still staying strong on X wave?

I'm wondering if the larger wave from the August isn't over just yet, that you have marked as "Y", if we break out to the upside it could always truncate and end that way instead. I suppose you could still count five waves in there and maybe it truncates around the 61.8% of "W" at that 1339 on the cash.

Neely mentions today the E wave of his neutral could still be play but I'm not as into that interpretation of the charts as I am the WXYXZ scenario

the fibs are just really clean on the second count and I've been looking hard at the timing of each of those legs in terms of months/weeks/days and even those could have some nice fibo action in them.; March 9, 2011 at 3:23 PM
Anonymous said...: got 2 hop, I'll try to catch up later~

AAIP; March 9, 2011 at 3:23 PM
AmenRa said...: Gundlach quote:

"You know what the definition of an investor? It is a trader who is underwater. People say they hold to maturity until they get scared and sell."; March 9, 2011 at 3:29 PM
ben22 said...: CV,

sorry, can't get on board with that at all

Duke won the ACC tourney last year, for starters.

I could see fading low seeds that end up winning their conference tourney, don't think they last much past the second round in most cases, but I'm not fading a solid team that wins its conf. tourney, at least not in early rounds.

The Big East this year is something different than maybe any other conference from top to bottom over the last decade.; March 9, 2011 at 3:31 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Interesting day...Bill G. dumps treasuries and meanwhile the yield is down to 3.47.

Bizarro world..; March 9, 2011 at 3:31 PM
karen said...: http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/3/9/2011-year-end-price-targets.html; March 9, 2011 at 3:33 PM
karen said...: Socionomics Interview: Kevin Depew Discusses Robert Prechter's Theory Ahead Of 2011 Socionomics Summit http://mvil.me/fiZLhB; March 9, 2011 at 3:34 PM
CV said...: @ben22

Duke, last year was an anomaly...

I'm statistically correct with my assessment (going back many years)...

You need to apply the theory in great numbers, not the handful that buck the odds...

I'll probably be going with Ohio State to win it all...; March 9, 2011 at 3:39 PM
AmenRa said...: Odd that todays high on the SPX was just below the daily 3LB mid. Each time the SPX approaches the weekly 3LB mid the NYSE TICKS go positive with a vengeance. It has to give sooner or later.; March 9, 2011 at 3:41 PM
ben22 said...: triangles always take longer than expected, lets just pretend for a moment this doesn't need to be redrawn:

http://bbs.cobrasmarketview.com/download/file.php?id=706&mode=view

if so, close to the apex, pop up and out could be weak as a result.

this in relation to my post to AT above that maybe his "Y" wave isn't over after all.....hard to say.; March 9, 2011 at 3:42 PM
karen said...: HYG:LQD did dump today.. JNK looking heavier and heavier.; March 9, 2011 at 3:46 PM
ben22 said...: CV,

I'll normally defer to you on items football, but I likely watch and no more about basketball than you.

Here's a list of title winners recently that Im' nearly certain without even looking won their conference tourney in the same year:

Duke 2001
Florida in 2006 and 2007
Kansas in 2008
Uconn in 2004 and 1999

there are lots more.; March 9, 2011 at 3:49 PM
ben22 said...: er....that's know more

or no more, I suppose....; March 9, 2011 at 3:49 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: The same computers must have been in charge of trading in the US and Europe today...large sawtooth oscillations.; March 9, 2011 at 3:52 PM
karen said...: mini waterfall in SMH; March 9, 2011 at 3:53 PM
karen said...: i could make the case that $bkx just formed its right shoulder..; March 9, 2011 at 3:56 PM
ben22 said...: I thought about going to that Socionomics but decided I didn't want to make the trip. It's probably going to be pretty cool.

they just put out a very interesting paper at SI about College Prof's and their pay/popularity.; March 9, 2011 at 4:03 PM

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Morning Corner 3.9.11

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