Copper (weekly info)-no change (above mid)
trend=up
high= 4.596
rev= 4.176; mid= 4.386
Last weeks candle looked like there was some indecision. This week cleared it up. It's weak as it's below the weekly 3LB mid. The question is whether there will be a reversal this week. If there is then that's the canary in the coal mine for stocks.
90 Day UST (weekly info)-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 0.090
rev= 0.170; mid= 0.130
Weekly 3LB is finally making a confirming low. Looking at the daily chart yesterdays dive is further indication that the Fed will not touch rates. So QE2 will end and the Fed will keep ZIRP going.
Bear Analyst versus Ten Bullish Analysts...
119 comments:
Gold/Money talk is banned from part-2, go to part-1
Dos!
If everyone just quit commenting we wouldn't have this problem
Uno, dos, one, two, tres, quatro.. wooly bully
Money was originally backed by a commodity to simplify transactions. Which meant that there was some value in that paper you're holding. Now there is no value just trust. Trust is a fickle being.
ahab
Can't help it. The market is teetering on THE edge.
so let me see:
gold is money
and fiat = shite
got it
and we need to dig more gold because there are so many dollars that we don't currently have enough gold to cover it all- instead of revaluing the dollars to the amount of gold that we have-
got it
this shits easy
Ra-
the market has basically done nothing since noon
AR, thank you very much!
ahab @ 2:10.. laughing, laughing..
pls look at slv and gld weekly candles, before you get too bullish..
"Which meant that there was some value in that paper you're holding. Now there is no value just trust."
same as it ever was, "money" only has value to the extent that we (collectively) believe (credit) it to have.
credit, from M.Fr. crédit (15c.) "belief, trust," from It. credito, from L. creditum "a loan, thing entrusted to another," from pp. of credere "to trust, entrust, believe"
The SPX is trying to make a break for it. Release the hounds!
holy cow, pt.2 was a nice idea, but why re-post those videos?
for some reason, they cause things to bog down, on this end, anyone else experience that?
AAIP
as I already said, money is whatever we want it to be, we've been making up what "money" is for 5,000 years, you said so yourself
---
EXACTLY - so we finally agree...
And to that point I add... Since we can "make up" our money whenever we damn well please... That the NEXT BOUT of us "making up" our money WON'T be the dollar, but instead it will be a currency backed on gold or silver...
Maybe I'm totally wrong...
But I'm the TRADITIONAL type (that believes that humans ALWAYS tend to go back to things that were trusted in the past - before all the new batch of hotshots came along and told them they were FOS for thinking that way and having their feet cemented into the ground)...
What I REALLY think we need is to populate the Earth with another 6 billion people (hell, let's just QUADRUPLE that and take us up to 30 billion)...
all living like 'Westerners' (driving Chevy Volts, twittering all day, and having government jobs with pensions that pay them a million DOLLARS a year because we're good at expanding out money supply)...
I'm sure the Earth wouldn't mind... Plenty of air to breathe, water to drink, and food to eat...
well, our buddy Scott Bleier, says
$$ Except for about 5 brief minutes, there has been a moderate buy program running since 10:45am this morning. Becoming full sized now
So, back to the Evil Speculator subscription service for a minute...right now we're having our 2nd touch of the upper 2nd standard deviation of ES vwap band. 2nd touch is usually good for at least a trip back to vwap, currently 6 pts lower.
cv -
tend to be a catastrophist myself in this regard
JNK, HYG, and NLY not really giving me much faith in this up move..
ahab,
you can't just revalue the dollar to the amount of gold we have in the current system since it floats, it's not linked or backed or convertable into anything. Whenver someone says "they are going to devalue the dollar"
you know that person has no clue....
Roosevelt devalued dollars by raising the price of gold but today that process, right now, is literally impossible, this is why the only argument for hyperinflation that holds any weight is that ALL of the debt is going to be monetized. I don't think that argument makes much sense but it *could happen.
Hope people can count to 1 quadrillion....
anyway, gotz to flop, I'll try to catch up, later..
ibid.
don't look at UUP, or if you do, shed a tear..
@AAIP
Fixed it... (videos are out)... But CV suspects it was actually AMEN's COPPER chart that was messin with the springwerks :-P
uup:uso is still way out of whack and moving in right direction..
Just got short for the last time of the day and week.
See yall at the low.
And if not, see yall at the bar, dammit.
http://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/North-Bay-Student-Survives-Jump-From-Golden-Gate-Bridge-117769468.html
b22-
a gold backed dollar is possible- by trading in current fiat for dollars backed by gold-
at whatever exchange rate needed
i hate the vix.. i think it is stupid, lol..
There isnt enough gold to do that.
Last time we hit 1305, it reversed hard
I really don't like to get into money discussions but IMO Money should be backed by something like turnips, where everyone who wants to get rich can just grow your own :)
I'm pretty convinced that the VIX options were created by the CBOE to fleece the shit out of people.
@Jennifer,
two points
1. re: ViX....the 200 day has capped it for a long time now, and shut down all the declines we've had for months, it's on it now and bears have nothing to get excited about on this front.
2. The "wall of worry" references I'm seeing all over are retarded, I've read too many first hand accounts of true wall of worry periods where markets were in a 3rd of a 3rd of a 3rd of a 3rd wave going UP, yet people were extremely negative anyway. You get the EWT right? Read the last one from Bob where he details 1985, he was the ONLY bull in the sentiment service. That's what a real wall of worry looks like, nothing like today from where I'm sitting.
Bespoke
Fair-weather investors. Bullish sentiment drops to lowest level since September. http://bit.ly/ftFz9B
18, I got some boys down in NoCal that are doing that very thing...
Only it aint turnips...
but I-Man-
can't you make it 1000 to 1, 10,000 to 1, 100,000 to 1-
whatever it takes-
so what if a house now cost $10,000 (in the new hard currency)
ahab,
I know it's possible. I'm explaining what Bernanke meant.
as for trading in fiat for gold....."money" is technically "money + credit" in our current system, so if we traded in all our "money" then NO, there isn't enough gold.
What's the total value of all the gold in the world? Our total "money" is 1 quadrillion, that's just dollars, then there's Yen, Euro, etc.
@ben
I agree 100% with everything you state here...
you can't just revalue the dollar to the amount of gold we have in the current system since it floats, it's not linked or backed or convertable into anything. Whenver someone says "they are going to devalue the dollar"
you know that person has no clue....
Roosevelt devalued dollars by raising the price of gold but today that process, right now, is literally impossible, this is why the only argument for hyperinflation that holds any weight is that ALL of the debt is going to be monetized. I don't think that argument makes much sense but it *could happen.
Hope people can count to 1 quadrillion...
Especially the first paragraph...
Where CV stands is in the notion that the "quadrillion" WILL, in fact, be monetized (as nutty as that might sound)...
I think you have to embrace the idea that the WEIMAR inflation didn't occur in a smooth way (even though it lasted from 1914-1923, really, the parabolic blowoff only occurred in the last few months)...
So at this juncture, it would be IMPOSSIBLE to even have the slightest clue as to whether the US is going to follow that path...
It migight be like saying "ok - we're at 1920 on this timeline"...
I simply have gone OVER TO THE DARK SIDE (the inflation side), for a simple reason...
- DEFLATION means death to the banks
- The banks can survive hyperinflation (because having an historic example of this, the bankers can basically PRINT the money needed to buy the asset hedges which will survive the eventual reset...
I'm willing to present EXAMPLES of this if anyone is confused and/or is not tired of this argument...
@I, I hear ya. Worked in that area a few times on repeater stations and was told not to wonder away from the tower. Bad stuff can happen to ya.
If ya stand on your tip-toes you can see 1305 from here.
@karen
i hate the vix.. i think it is stupid, lol
The VIX used to mean something... before HFT, that is...
you can make an exchange rate to match the gold supply-
a million to one, ten million to one-
whatever it takes
1305.06 is the weekly S1. Market is probably trying to not close under that.
ProphetAlerts
Waiting for the headlines today.... "Stocks rally after Japan quake, radiation worries, $100 oil, and middle east worries"
@I-Man
There isnt enough gold to do that.
See? that's the center of my argument...
There's enough GOLD to do whatever you want (the moment you treat IT as "money" instead of the dollar)...
So when GOLD gets treated as money... The dollar will deflate (not the other way around)...
ProphetAlerts
The media might have to go all out and just say "Market rallies after iPad 2 released"
@ahab
you can make an exchange rate to match the gold supply
Now you're seeing the field clearly...
good chart here from the slope:
http://slopeofhope.typepad.com/.a/6a00e0098982228833014e86a6daab970d-popup
Breaking News
1 killed, 3 others swept out to sea in Crescent City, Calif., near Oregon border - AP http://bit.ly/ewtsZF
Greece 2yr bonds back at 17.07%. BOOM!
Jeez...I sign for fed ex and SPX goes up 4 points? WTF. And it wasn't even a package for me.
CV,
Yes, I understand clearly that you think they will monetize all the debt, you've stated that many times now. I look at the world today and believe that's nearly impossible, polticians are too self serving for it to occur, they'll all be booted out if they agree to it, and none of them want that to happen. We have so far monetized 5% of it, not including the derivatives, so even if I agreed with you, it's likely to take over a decade to do all of it.
Put another way, if it were that easy, I wonder what the hell those stupid Japanese are doing?
@K 2:41, guess they didn't have the tsunami warning app on their iPad...
so . . .a big flush for the end of the day?
or no?
Hell...
Here's a good exercise...
Take median home values, since, say 2006...
Price them in DOLLARS, then price them in GOLD BULLION...
I'd say the 'bullion' value is MUCH more reflective of the overall economic environment than the DOLLAR value...
OR
Compare the price of CRUDE (in bullion) since QE2 vs. the price of crude (in dollars)...
Make those comparisons and you might get an idea to what CV is referring to as the notion that "stealthily" the world is pricing ASSETS in GOLD not DOLLARS right under our noses...
Bulls have to keep the market above the range 1297.80 to 1305.42 to stop the implosion. This range is the SMA(55), midpoint from yesterday candle and the 23.6% retrace.
Seeing the field clearly? dear lord.....
the market sets the price of things, don't you see that in that scenario of gold exchange someone somewhere is going to get the shaft? You think they'll just go along with it? oh wait....for the good of humanity?
if bernanke told you tomorrow that by decree he has decided all dollar bills are really worth $2 (you know, so he doesn't need to print as much), does that make it so?, or is the rest of the world going to decide the relative value of dollars vs. the goods and services they are used to obtain through interaction with each other?
And further, making rules like that is just more central planning, is it not?
I don't like gold,
I price things in BIDU bucks
I'm thinking huge drop into the close from here, but I dont like the volume right now.
CV,
Oddly enough, when Bob Prechter does things like your 2:45 (value home prices in gold vs. dollars), he uses it to argue the exact opposite of what you are forecasting, and he does it all the time.
@ben22
I look at the world today and believe that's nearly impossible, polticians are too self serving for it to occur, they'll all be booted out if they agree to it, and none of them want that to happen.
It's easy to see where our different POV's are because I'd say that POLITICIANS DON'T GIVE A RAT'S ASS or even COMPREHEND this...
Look at Wisconsin... That's just a canary in a coalmine (same with the 2010 elections)... 'Populist' vote said that we need AUSTERITY... So the politicians swing that way for awhile (or at least pay lip service to the idea)...
But TRUST ME (or don't)... If the S&P collapses, and unemployment rises, and pensions start to get cut... I'll bet my bottom gold bar that the 'populist' vote will swing back to "BAIL US OUT HERE" (which will be perfect because then the politicians can serve both their constituents & their banking masters)...
If austerity worked, why, after a year, is Greece worse off than ever...
Answer...
Monetize until you DIE... And unfortunately, the QUADRILLION figure, though FAR AWAY, is the end game to that volley...
b22-
there is recent history of government's revaluing their currency- even a million to one or more- preceded by the government backing the new currency with something of value.
so . . .sell off into the close- bull trap?
what do you experts out there think?
potentail inverse H&S on S&P.
hard to see us breaking down now before the close, but I still think we are in the C wave so still thinking this isn't all over yet.
http://www.businessinsider.com/now-californias-biggest-pension-fund-wants-to-cut-its-earnings-forecast-2011-3
I can't wait until I can spend my plastic poker chips-
of course the blue chips will get me the most bang for my buck (er . . .plastic)
CV,
dude, that's the whole effing point, they don't need to understand IT, they need to understand what is happening to them.
Just look at the reaction after the election last year....
anyway, we are on two different sides, I believe you are betting on a low probability event, you see it the exact opposite, time will tell who was right.
people can never seem to explain Japan, or any of the other deflations other than saying, it will be different this time, I also think after 40 years of inflation that people are conditioned to only fear that, and not the other side.
Ben -- I see the inverted h&s on a 5 min chart...but I also see a nice H&S on the hourly chart, and right now we are trying to retest the neckline which is around 1305. Not sure on the volume being right though.
ben, there is an even bigger and better potential inverse H&S on FAZ (60 min from monday.. i guess well see if 1305 gives way..
Jenn.. LOL.. we did it again.
I want to point out that the market was red yesterday at the close and yet Karen failed to observe protocol.....
Oh well, its been fun gang, but I'm done taking a beating today.
Despite numerous idiocies and failed execution this week, thanks to risk management we were down only 0.4% yesterday and we are still up for the month. This week showed me how you can have a good plan, know almost exactly what will happen, and still f*ck up the timing.
Well...guess everyone's getting ready for MOMO monday. Karen -- too funny!
the market sets the price of things, don't you see that in that scenario of gold exchange someone somewhere is going to get the shaft?
No... I don't see it that way at all...
Instead, I see the situation as something COMPLETELY different... I'll outline it here...
- On the TOP of the pyramid is the notion that the bankers are out for their OWN SURVIVAL
- So the 'hedge' is that to survive... You NEED to be ready to survive either a DEFLATIONARY collapse, or a HYPERINFLATIONARY COLLAPSE (which, of course leads to a DEFLATIONARY collapse)...
Banks LOSE in DEFLATIONARY collapse (all the money owed to them is defaulted on, and after that they might as well just be done away with entirely)...
They can WIN with INFLATION... They can increase the money supply (to the point of hyperinflation - which would, of course lead to the collapse of the FIAT system, but since they're printing all the money in the process, they could simply use it to incrementally stockpile PHYSICAL resources in the process)... So when the time of COLLAPSE occurred, they'd still be the OWNERS of everything (land, resources, PM's, whatever)...
---
The 'populist' & 'political' wills take a back seat to this...
- No politician EVER turned down free money
- Only SAVERS are massacred in hyperinflation (and lo and behold - we are NOT a nation of savers - so you want to talk about "market" setting the agenda - WELL - there's your market)...
ahab,
2:54
as I said, that 'something of value' is being determined by everyone, the market, is it not? In your example you are saying we can change the value of the dollar in relation to gold, which assumes the price of gold then stays fixed, why do you assume this?
you don't really think the government can just determine the value of things by the stroke of a pen do you?
what's missing in these assumptions is all the dollar denominated debt held by foreigners, go ahead and crush the dollar like that, it should go over real well, and nobody would react right?
last 3 mondays have been momo downers tho : )
Oddly enough, when Bob Prechter does things like your 2:45 (value home prices in gold vs. dollars), he uses it to argue the exact opposite of what you are forecasting, and he does it all the time
Well then... ODDLY ENOUGH... I see the field differently than Prechter (using the same set of data points)...
That either qualifies CV as a "fool", or a "genius"...
market has been taking bigger down steps than up steps..
I will not labor this point, but the gentleman who likes to squeeze may be waiting in the wings....
Can't think who you mean.....
Sellputs
Bloomberg reporting a Nuclear Emergency has been declared in Japan $$
bull trap..
and who in their sane mind wants to be long over THIS weekend..
anyway, we are on two different sides, I believe you are betting on a low probability event, you see it the exact opposite, time will tell who was right.
I hope everybody else doesn't get annoyed about our WRESTLING AROUND on this subject...
I have a great deal of respect for you, your research, and your ability to articulate your arguments...
It just HAPPENS that we have differing viewpoints on the potential outcome...
But that's why it's a MARKET, right? :-)
CV,
this conversation is getting completely off base so that's probably enough for today
one last thought
there is no such thing as free money
3:11, CV
Exactly! this is what makes a market, and also why I get annoyed when people tell us to stop talking about it, we're just having a discussion here and we are coming from two different sides, it's nothing more than that.
also, not saying that Bob is right, I think he's wrong about a lot of stuff, just pointing out you could use your same arguments to take the other side....
ReutersBreakingNews
Japan trade ministry: Pressure inside Fukushima reactor may have risen to 2.1 times designed capacity
We are long, but I guess that proves your point.... LOL
b22
so when Germany converted to a new deutsche mark- how did they pull that off?
maybe some assumptions had to be made- so what?
re: Wall of Worry
do you think in the past when there was a wall of worry that you would have been able to find thousands of comments all over the web about how a two month drop in bullish sentiment from near all time highs was in fact bullish for stocks, or that you could find all kinds of retail investors after a decade of.....bi-losing! that had fallen in love with a cartoon that told you to buy the dip?
Do you think during a wall of worry that warren buffett would still be regarded as a hero, and that there would be over 200 alternative investment managers on the Forbes billionaires list?
Do you think during a real wall of worry that since a nuclear bomb hasn't been dropped yet in the middle east this is taken by some as the "all clear" sign to buy?
I could go on and on here.....
pull up spy and dia.. check volume and previous distribution days..
Bullish engulfing?
people can never seem to explain Japan
Not that CV's hypothesis is correct... But I see the Japan scenario as quite different to the USA...
NOT in terms of Central Banking policy response or FOREX...
But let me nominate a few things (just for fun)...
- The typical Japanese household had some SAVINGS built in... It's easier for TIGHTER family units to survive shocks... I learned this living in Italy... Nobody really cared about the ECONOMY... As long as they could eat well and have trusted people around...
- Americans are quite different... We're mostly debt ridden, and it's IMPORTANT that the "bubble" stay inflated (otherwise it's EMBARRASSING to "move back in to Mom & Dad's basement"... There will be a great deal of resistance to that...
- The sheer SIZE of government in the US (which includes the military, its operations, pensions, plus all the bloated salaries, and the fact that it is furthermore duplicated on a STATE level)... Government workers DO NOT PAY TAXES... Huh? you say, of course they do... NO - government workers have their jobs WHICH ARE CREATED BY TAXPAYERS... You can't make an adequate comparison to the size or breadth of the Japanese "putting in" or "taking from" the kitty...
- I think that we're seeing (after 2008), the phase shift from PRIVATE SECTOR - PUBLIC SECTOR workers as being a key driving point to policymaking going forward... There's going to be NO AUSTERITY people (because there are increasingly more "organized interests" voting themselves benefits from the national treasury...So if the money supply has to rise to accomodate that, then that's the way it is... Hey - THEY have the guaranteed jobs (with no competition)... What pot do YOU have to piss in?
Been taking my 12% or so from SSO calls off the table. Usually doesn't work this well, just couldn't really see us go below 1296 as I've been saying. Next week may be different.
Karen, was the tsunami very big on your beach?
just pointing out you could use your same arguments to take the other side [of Prechter]...
Just exercising what atrophied brainpower I have left... "Use it or lose it" (as we say in my business)... :-)
Let's not have the Japan discussion today. But we can return to this. Nobody thinks Japan is comparable, that Japan is a weirdo country, but they are people, and they are really not so different as Americans think.
The point is they are in a different place in a demographic shift.
see uup now? 22.03
ahab,
the so what is that when Germany did that there were all kinds of repercussions, that's the whole point, there was a time when cigarettes became money there. The 1948 currency reform there wiped out all the government debt, and also all the private savings.
the US market has a 16 trillion value, the amount of money we say is in bank deposits is in the trillions.
but sure, the dollar could just be said to be worth 1 one millionth of and oz. of gold tomorrow and everyone would just move along like nothing happened.....
I don't think it's that easy.
18.. nothing on my beach has been reported..
SO glad I walked away a bit ago... sheesh.
Gonna go find out how chinook salmon are affected by tsunami vibes in the Columbia River.
Maybe catch up with yall over the wknd, can we get a music thread?
suckiest sucker rally ever.. good going to sell 18.. do upro next time ; )
Let's hear it for Japanese engineers... remarkable.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/skyscrapers-vs-earthquake-benefits-reinforced-concrete
selling into close . . .
You do like to say suck a lot, Karen....
@ahab
so when Germany converted to a new deutsche mark- how did they pull that off?
---
Technially - it was from the "
Reichsmark" to the "Rentenmark"... But here's a good read on the episode to give it some context...
http://www.delanion.com/main/dom.htm
Not sure who posted the Slope chart/link, but if you were following it, that last hourly candle was a perfect touch of that trendline before the selling started.
Releasing "radioactive vapor" now...
Putting on new positions seems dumb here. We will sit. Normally we would be shorting Treasuries into Friday's close, but we just can't see this market running away in either direction Monday morning. It can wait....
Thx Karen, doesn't seem to have much volume in UPRO options, but actually I should just stick with SPY options and not the 2Xers or 3Xers. Sometimes I have all the right moves though :)
...Starting to like this groups songs, "everyone knows where we're going, we're going down"... so we went the other way, today ;)
I=Man, still trying to read the Martin A. PDF, he always has alot to say and for me to absorb what he's saying is challenging sometimes :)
I understand that the bulls couldn't let the bears win another round after that beating they took. But with everything going on why is the market higher? Shorts taking profits and HFTs adding to the move to try and cause a short squeeze? The JBTFD crowd? The protect SMA(55) crowd?
One Republic is a pretty sweet band imo, I like both albums they have put out since apologize became famous.
loved that music video.. i almost missed it..
not shedding any tears for the close under 1305.. suckers.
decided to hold the SDS and QID over the weekend
If it doesn't go down, it wasn't meant to go down.
Not yet, anyway.
What a wild week.
Would love to sit in the sun with K and drink a beer.
All that bikini trading and the tsunami warning......
Even K must be ready to chill out by the pool.
I love this song. Pour yourself a drink, relax. Listen.
Mr. Kimbrough
also excellent spoonman, thank you.. love to see blues live.. in a nice uncrowded place with a drink in front of me..
here is our hilarious headline! U.S. stocks close higher after Japan quake on rebuilding hopes; Nasdaq leads weekly loss
03/11/2011 04:11:07 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wdDRCIEEZ3w
I-Man
Word is Martin Armstrong has been released from prison. I've seen it on a few blogs that post his writings.
nice chatting with everyone today-
try to check in later
Dudley tried to explain how the Fed sees things: Yes, food and energy prices may be rising, but at the same time, other prices are declining.
He then stretched for a real world example. The only problem was he chose the Apple's latest tablet computer that hit stores on Friday, which may be more popular at the New York Fed's headquarters near Wall Street than it is on the gritty streets of Queens.
"Today you can buy an iPad 2 that costs the same as an iPad 1 that is twice as powerful," he said."You have to look at the prices of all things."
This prompted guffaws and widespread murmuring from the audience, with one audience member calling the comment "tone deaf."
"I can't eat an iPad," another said.
What a week..... wild wild stuff.
Can't really put it all into words. We didn't do much, nibbled on some dividends, took off the hedge we had on and just sat back and watched.
Will try to post a few cogent thoughts next week.... other things seem more important today. Thoughts and prayers to friends in Japan.
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