Morning Corner 3.7.11

Silver (weekly info)
new high 35.54
trend=up
high= 35.54
rev= 30.94; mid= 33.24



Did you think the move higher had abated? Ummm NO. Silver shorts be warned. Even margin increases can't stop this train. Last weeks candle showed no sign of reversing. But since this week gapped higher a hanging man, bearish engulfing, dark cloud cover or shooting star are the shorts last hope.




Continuous Commodity Index (monthly info)
new high 676.96
trend=up
high= 676.96
rev= 566.28; mid= 621.62



From this we can see that gold, silver and oil are not the only commodities caught in this move higher. The 17 in this index are: Cocoa, Coffee, Copper, Corn, Cotton, Crude Oil, Gold, Heating Oil, Live Cattle, Live Hogs, Natural Gas, Orange Juice, Platinum, Silver, Soybeans, Sugar No. 11, and Wheat. No wonder China is stocking up.


99 comments:

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/41936202

Blog: Investors Beware, Sugar Rush Is Fading

"The starting point for any investment is the price paid. If US stock valuations are any guide, investors should be very careful right now. The US cyclically-adjusted PE ratio is currently 23.7X, 45 percent above the 16.4 percent average of the past century.

This ratio has only twice been higher; in 1929, and during the TMT bubble at the start of the century. The most plausible explanation for this is that central banks are flooding the system with liquidity, the effect of which has been to lift all asset prices. In the US, movements in the S&P 500 and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet are 86 percent correlated."

Karen, we are going to see Bruckner later this month. I have him down as my number 2 fav.

106.50.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-QBzkJVSwifs/TXSKrEoTzDI/AAAAAAAAKxU/6DOzBw-uu_4/s1600/gallup%2Bunemployment%2B2011-03-07B.png

...from Mish this morning. Interesting alternative article. BLS? Bull....?

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://money.cnn.com/2011/03/06/news/economy/gas_prices.cnnw/index.htm

"While Libya is not among the top suppliers of U.S. oil, and only 3% of Libyan oil exports head to the United States, global economics link the events there to the pumps at home.

Libya produces a light, high-gravity crude oil that is most in demand by less complex refineries around the world, Lundberg said. As this oil becomes unavailable, it forces buyers of crude to find substitutes from other oil producers, starting a chain reaction that raises prices of crude and gasoline in the United States.

The current average price of $3.51 is 61 cents below the all-time high price recorded in July 2008. Today's price is 78 cents higher than a year ago, Lundberg said."

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Seriously OT:

http://www.mountainhardwear.com/Blog-Post/BlogPost,default,pg.html?bpid=2011_1_3_Freddie_NuptseDreams

Bruce in Tennessee said...

To the mine. Bought SLV this am...1st foray since the very early 80's...


later 'taters...

AmenRa said...

When did futures inch higher? Gold, silver, oil were up and futures lower before crashing last night. Wake up and gold, silver, oil are higher and so are futures. What gives?

Anonymous said...

AR

EUR up

Bruce in Tennessee said...

the futures have been coming down since I got up Amen. And gas is inching higher.

They must have hidden Bernanke's 38 today...

karen said...

good morning! yes, euro up just the way I dreamt it last week.. i just had this 1.40 scenario in my head--with all of us scratching our heads..

AR, loved the foto collage above! you know those futures, love to mind games on us : )

karen said...

in case no one saw my must watch video post from last night:

http://www.forbes.com/2011/03/04/steve-forbes-richard-lehmann-intelligent-investing-video.html

(this is the NOT Japan scenario.. plausible.. but the key will be yields, obviously.)

karen said...

short and sweet: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/03/rebound-vs-valuations/

karen said...

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2011-03-07/raj-rajaratnam-and-wall-streets-courtroom-showdown/

Anonymous said...

U.S. President Barack Obama is giving serious thought to tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in response to soaring gasoline prices, White House Chief of Staff Bill Daley said.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

it is not a supply problem.

if he wanted to do something constructive, the no-fly zone would be a good idea. But no troops on the ground, please.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Nearly all ag prices are up and cotton up 3.29%...

Lefty, I see holey underoos in your future...

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/futures/

Jennifer said...

This doesn't seem as strong as momo monday should warrant. After Friday's EOD reversal, I was prepared for a very strong rally today, but so far I'm not impressed.

AmenRa said...

Jennifer

They're just trying to lure you in.

karen said...

http://www.businessinsider.com/david-tepper-is-up-10-and-worried-about-the-middle-east-2011-3

karen said...

NicTrades Nicola
Bearish gartley in $SPX takes us to Fridays low %%
7 seconds ago

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-06/japan-s-maehara-intends-to-quit-as-foreign-minister-nhk-says.html

Kan Government in ‘Crisis’ as Maehara’s Fall Deepens Japan Finance Dilemma

"Kan has failed to persuade the opposition to authorize 44.3 trillion yen in government bonds to finance the budget and faces dissent in his Democratic Party over a push to raise the sales tax to cope with soaring debt costs. The stalemate has increased the possibility Kan will have to step down, becoming the fifth straight premier to last no more than a year."


..I have read numerous articles suggesting Japanese equities are now the place to be...

Jennifer said...

Back at 1313/1314 -- this is where we reversed Friday.

karen said...

"The three most dangerous words on a ski slope are “Follow me, Dad.” The four most dangerous words in finance are “It’s different this time.”"

http://www.newsweek.com/2011/03/06/interview-larry-summers.html

I-Man said...

I-noint One Self,
and Love I-manity...

Jennifer said...

Welcome back I-Man! How was the fishing?

I-Man said...

It wasnt "catching"...

The trading is going better already than four days of fishing.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.komonews.com/news/local/115789384.html

"PORT ANGELES, Wash. - Counterfeit coins by the thousands are turning up in Washington state, and authorities are warning coin collectors to be on the lookout for them.

All or most of the counterfeits appear to be from China.

"Stacks of ingots, bars, all kinds of stuff - they make everything from pennies all the way up to silver dollars," says Port Angeles police officer Duane Benedict. "China is making these things by the thousands."

I-Man said...

But it was nice to get out in the sticks... the stars on the coast Friday night were absolutely Deep. Only time we got a clear view.

karen said...

do look at $copper or JJC.. down nearly 3% and looking very H&S-ie

Anonymous said...

http://cdn.theatlantic.com/static/infocus/antarctica0304/s_a11_ROTATION.jpg

Speaking of stars,
check this foto out.
Unreal.

foghorn

Bruce in Tennessee said...

whether you caught anything or not I-Man. I wished I was with you...I want a long vacation so bad I can taste it...

karen said...

AT's 1302 in play..

karen said...

zerohedge
What will the US invasion of Libya be called: "Operation Nobel Peace Prize?"

Jennifer said...

We're right at the bottom rising trendline on the SPY hourly chart...I think we might be due for a little bounce here at 1309ish.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

I dearly hope this newest bunch of morons will not invade another country....

I suppose it is easier than cutting spending..

karen said...

PIMCO
Gross: This week’s Treasury auctions should raise yields today. We favor the front-end of yield curves.

Bespoke
Two negative technicals: Nasdaq breaks below its 50-day moving average and S&P 500 drops below Friday's low.

karen said...

look at JJC again! down nearly 4% now..

karen said...

Bespoke
Judging by the last 3 days Saudi investors are less worried about the Mid-East than the rest of the world. http://bit.ly/g437Uw

karen said...

zerohedge
According to Russia's foreign minister, Lavrov, Russia is opposed to any military intervention in Libya

I-Man said...

I'm thinking she'll drift higher for an hour or so now...

A peek at the NQ and RUT makes me think that I am trading the "Diet Market" over here in the Dow...

With the same exact trades, I'd be up about twice as much in cash value trading the NQ.

Oh well, about twice the volatility too tho.

AmenRa said...

I'd say it but every time I do it gets taken out. The weekly 3LB welcomes you SPX :-)

ben22 said...

hey all, back in town today, hope you guys are all doing good.

I-Man said...

Ha! So much for drift...

Oh well, got an irie breakfast made, and will wait for a retrace, if we even get one.

I-Man said...

Jah Benji Mon...

ben22 said...

what up I, hope you had a good trip, last time I saw really good stars like that was out on Middle Bass Island in Ohio.

Andy T said...

Love these Gold commercials that say that "Gold is a great hedge for inflation or deflation."

WTF.

karen said...

Douglas Kass
gun to my head we might be making a days low with spiders at 130.90 - but doing little

ben22 said...

those are good ads

"Gold is a great hedge for inflation or deflation."

iow, gold can't go down?

CV said...

An interesting thing to consider is that at least as far as the headlines were concerned...

- You didn't hear any stories about MuBARAK leaving the country with suitcases full of Egyptian Pounds (of course not - where would you spend them?)...

- Or Ghadaffi leaving Libya crammed to the gills with dinars (same as other situation)...

OTOH - What you DID hear was both trying to take GOLD out (not US dollars)...

No particular point, just an observation (towards what NEWS is reported)...

Anonymous said...

Crude Oil 105.25 +0.83 +0.79
Natural Gas 3.872 +0.063 +1.66
Corn 714.25 -13.75 -1.89
Soybeans 1391.5 -22.5 -1.59
30yr Bond 119.28125 +0.06250 +0.05
10yr Note 118.781250 +0.156250 +0.13
NY Gold 1435.6 +7.0 +0.49
NY Silver 36.110 +0.783 +2.20
http://www.ino.com/

Anonymous said...

cv--,

one of the best 'cinematic' treatments I've seen, on Fiat, is in 'Hotel Rwanda'..

Have you seen that?/know what I mean?

ibid.

Jennifer said...

What just happened?

karen said...

Jennifer, are you talking about the up move or the down move, lol..

karen said...

i'm trying out some 5 min charts..

Jennifer said...

http://www.stocktiming.com/Monday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

Institutions in distribution

I-Man said...

Biggest up move of the day so far...

Not really sure what to read of it yet, my offer is above that spike anyway, so holding back.

Jennifer said...

Karen -- I meant the up move, but really, any of it.

I-Man said...

The fact that it spiked like that as we challenged the low (on YM anyway) makes me think that there is an even bigger short a bit higher...

I-Man said...

Back on the Van Halen 1... cant quit this album.

I-Man said...

ON FIRE!!!

I-Man said...

Alright, I'll take my random Van Halen references elsewhere.

Yalls is suckaz...

karen said...

http://www.businessinsider.com/matt-damon-obama-has-rolled-over-to-wall-street-completely-2011-3

karen said...

zerohedge
High Yield Options Update: 4257 Puts, 4 Calls - Do Stocks Have a 150 Point Implied Downward Vacuum? http://is.gd/6qVRwd

karen said...

it might be time to JBTFD.. you know what happens when we flat line going into the last hour..

karen said...

triangles, triangles everywhere!!

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Extremely bad news:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/41951985/

"Brewers may get a reprieve this year from tight supplies of malting barley in top exporter Canada, but higher costs will likely to force them to raise the price of beer next year."

...I do have empty space in my garage...

karen said...

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/no-need-to-wield-the-strategic-petroleum-reserve-2011-03-07

Jennifer said...

$spx has a nice bear flag going on the hourly. Makes sense that we would retest that congestion area from beneath. ES VWAP is about 3 points higher from here and we haven't been there all day though so now might be a good time for that little trip.

ben22 said...

Karen,

I would not buy dips, imo, better off selling rips right now

On the very short term I like Andy's chart 7 on his update, bold (a) and (b) wave's are complete, this looks like wave (c), this wave should bring us sub 1300 on the S&P this week, the (b) was pretty big, so the next push higher probably won't be, probably not so much to scalp there. Notice since 2/18 how all the upside gaps are getting closed in a day or two.

That count is really money right now from what I can tell.

gl!

ben22 said...

GM

too bad so sad

guess bagholders didn't read page 30 of the IPO prospectus.

karen said...

Ben, I was being sarcastic.. I'll let you know when I change my tune.

Jennifer said...

We made it all the way back to VWAP -- that was a nice long trade that I failed to take. Going short again here at 1314.

karen said...

This is making the rounds tho I can't watch it:

Nearly a decade after the attacks, new aerial footage of 9/11 has emerged on YouTube

http://on.wsj.com/ieDiQP

Benwinkle said...

Watch me pull a green rabbit outta my hat, Rock..

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://money.cnn.com/2011/03/07/autos/gm_discount_pricing_dealers.fortune/index.htm?source=yahoo_quote

GM's painful addiction? New car discounts take hold again


...don't bring that damn copy of consumer reports in here again...

Jennifer said...

I love it when a trade goes according to plan

spoonman said...

Nice job J. You taking that one home?

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110307/ap_on_bi_ge/eu_greece_financial_crisis

Greece slams rating agencies after Moody's cut

"LONDON – Greece launched a tirade against U.S. credit ratings agencies Monday after Moody's downgraded its debt grade further below junk status, warning the bailed-out euro country might have to default on its massive borrowings."

...You didn't have to say I was fat and ugly. Fat OR ugly, but really!

...Could you loan me 10 bucks to payday?

spoonman said...

Thought about adding to short, but after already being palpated by Dr. Cold Steel last week I'll sleep better with a more modest overnight position.

I-Man said...

That was a textbook retracement into continuation move...

Hit right off the Death Line on the 5min YM chart.

I-Man's done after that, and glad to put another big up day on the books.

See yall tomorrow, or maybe later if I come back to look at crude charts and try to figure out this new corellation.

Jennifer said...

Spoonman -- thanks, not taking that one home. I've got some longer term OTM puts that are modestly under water, that's enough overnight short exposure for me. I do find Lefty's Libya analysis compelling and I'm open to the idea of a massive relief rally which would of course take the form of a massive opening gap up.

Anonymous said...

Dollar recovers vs euro as debt worries continue
8 minutes ago

(AP:NEW YORK) The dollar turned higher late Monday, recovering from a four-month low against the euro earlier in the day, as debt concerns drove the European currency lower.

The euro traded at $1.3968 late Monday, down from $1.3987 Friday. The euro peaked at $1.4036 earlier Monday on hopes that the European Central Bank will lift interest rates.

Central banks raise interest rates to fight inflation, and higher rates often cause a currency's value to rise. But they can slow economic growth.

Investors weighed their expectations for higher rates, which have driven the euro higher this year, against the debt woes in the region. Portugal's borrowing costs hit a euro-era high and a major credit ratings agency cut Greece's debt rating, warning of possible defaults down the road.

"The euro is likely to grind higher," said Win Thin, a currency analyst for Brown Brothers Harriman in New York. But "there's enough risks and problems out there for the eurozone that it's not going to be a straight line up."
....
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=6897681757484790

ibid.

like ~"according to s script.."

AmenRa said...

Would've been around more but the data feed for Macs is SLOW. Charting software problems. Enough to walk away because everything is delayed. Still will get the corner up later.

karen said...

AR, no one was into commenting today.. i think we are all numb : )

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Another interesting day. I feel sure GS is not going to be profitable every single day in March. And the Tepper article Karen was interesting...apparently the King of the trading universe knows where the brake pedal is located...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Karen I read your post about the symphony. And commented. You know Lefty can play the Kazoo, don't you?

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.foxnews.com/

Obama Brings Back Military Tribunals at Guantanamo Bay

"President Obama announced Monday that military trials will resume for detainees at the Guantanamo Bay prison camp, saying he wants to "broaden our ability to bring terrorists to justice."

...Good grief.....

karen said...

Bruce, can one play a kazoo and eat pizza at the same time?

The Guantanamo tribunals.. what next..

GS did not have a good day today. Closed below $160..

karen said...

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/mar/7/government-posts-biggest-monthly-deficit-ever/

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Karen:

Both parties are really the pits most of the time, but Obama "promised" in his campaign to close Gitmo forever.

...I suspect the repubs will mention it going into 2012..

karen said...

Dont get CV started.. Obama promised a lot of things..

karen said...

i won't point out the H&S on the the five month GS chart because it is too obvious to play out.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Karen:

Very scary budget news. I wish I could see where this ends. I still don't think we manage hyperinflation, but it is through a glass darkly that I gaze...

karen said...

I'm not even sure there is anything constructive to be gleaned from the JANUARY data, but at least Boockvar explains it well.

By Peter Boockvar - March 7th, 2011, 4:19PM
Consumer Credit outstanding in Jan rose for a 4th straight month by $5b, above expectations of a gain of $3.5b but Dec was revised down to show a rise of $4.1b vs the initial reading of $6.1b. The breakdown though shows a very mixed picture as revolving (mostly credit cards) credit outstanding fell for the 28th month in the past 29. Thus, the recent monthly gains have been led by the non revolving category (mostly auto loans and student loans), especially as vehicle sales have improved. In the aggregate, revolving credit outstanding fell to the lowest since Sept ’04 seasonally adjusted while non revolving loans outstanding rose to an all time record high. From a deleveraging standpoint, consumers have cut back from borrowing in the aggregate, specifically with much forced deleveraging in the mortgage side (not included in this data), but corporate debt is at a record high and we all know where government debt stands.

karen said...

oops: Urban Outfitters (URBN 34.41, -3.58, -9.42%) shares slumped 10% to $34.16 following the Philadelphia-based company’s report that fourth-quarter net earnings were $75.2 million, or 45 cents a share, down slightly from $77.7 million, or 45 cents, in the year-ago period. There were 2.8% more shares outstanding in the year-ago period. Revenue rose 14% to $668.4 million from $588.5 million. Analysts surveyed by FactSet Research had been looking for 52 cents a share on $674.8 million in r..

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/urban-outfitters-results-set-for-evening-release-2011-03-07?siteid=rss&rss=1

karen said...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-03/honesty-for-banks-is-still-such-a-lonely-word-commentary-by-jonathan-weil.html

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.508d4f8e1d7a5d61d2eb3a01316ab8ed.ef1&show_article=1

Spain's savings banks race to find funds by Thursday

karen said...

you all will love this!

Time Warner Inc.’s Sports Illustrated magazine is changing it's subscription model, and is betting on the popularity of its swimsuit issue to aid new business. Bloomberg's Michele Steele reports. (Source: Bloomberg)

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/66709202/

karen said...

zerohedge
Latest Libya Development: Gaddafi Offers Rebels To Hold People's Congress To Let Him Step Down With Guarantees http://is.gd/MsZCnm

AmenRa said...

new thread

Post a Comment

Disclosure/Warning

This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.