Morning Corner 2.18.11

Composite Home Price Index

The HPI is back below its monthly 3LB mid and holding on for dear life at its weekly 3LB mid. If rates continue rising the move back to the lows might be faster than one would expect.



EMB (weekly info)
new low 104.58
trend=down
low= 104.58
rev= 105.97; mid= 105.28


The long term trend is down. The intermediate trends down move seems to be abating. But the weekly candles are small and don't really give any clues. Looks more like consolidation.



HUI (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=down (2 bars)
low= 504.77
rev= 581.53; mid= 543.15

Seems like the miners are now in sync with gold. This week HUI has gotten above its weekly 3LB mid. Are they ramping up production to keep up with demand?


TED Spread

My version of the TED spread using 3 Month LIBOR and 90 Day Treasuries. Only because my provider doesn't have the spread.



Now above the 10-08-6/10 trend line. Ruh roh?

h/t Ben

209 comments:

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Anonymous said...

In England,
you call that NORMAL giles
Us Scottish blokes stole all your fine wimmen.

foghorn

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Well, I for one wish times wern't so interesting. You ever wonder why, in the 1800's we didn't have inflation? I think it was because government was smaller and didn't encourage things like buying houses with money you didn't have, or going to school on credit, or passing bills that favor, say, bankers...

..I think I will rant less next week...

Anonymous said...

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=TLT+Options

the 89p Sale/89c Buy, from b4, worked out--to the tune of 5x..

Gracias~!, Fixxy..

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

Our pleasure.

This is a good set up for a turn. US markets are closed Monday but EVERY other market is open, so there is plenty of time for cheeky maneuvers in FX before our lot come back on Tuesday.

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

The Bond Report 2.18.11

The non-death of the US fixed income market continued, as rates continued to be range-bound within the new parameters recently established. It was risk-on, with HY > IG and TIP > TLT as The Dread Spectre of Inflation stalked the land.

Munis continue a mild but not wholly convincing recovery. Zeros approach a new nadir, but should offer an attractive risk/reward opportunity at some point.

Corpies: LQD 0.15%; AGG -0.02%; JNK 0.34%; HYG 0.30%
Govies: TLT -0.31%; IEI 0.07%; TIP 0.46%
Munis: IQI 0.25%; MUB 0.19%
Mortgages: MBB 0.08%
Specialty: ZROZ -0.98%; TBT 0.53%

We did nothing, but contemplated the continued upward trajectory of our junk. In equities we re-entered the cheeky short of China and Emerging Markups of which we have lately been so fond.

14% long US stocks. 30% short EMs and China.
17% AGG, 9% JNK, 9.5% TLT, 5% LQD and 5% TIP. [45% total]

Anonymous said...

That is a handsome looking Report, don't you think, ladies? I mean, there are imitators, but really... nobody does it better.....

karen said...

that last ten min and 20 point push on the indu rather upset me--but it was to be expected, sighing, not in pleasure.

Anonymous said...

A new zinc finger protein involved in cancer.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12503798

Anonymous said...

We would be happy to give you a 20 minute push that would leave you sighing, in pleasure...

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