AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

I see another group of traders interested in the US market...

Creditcane™: Will work for debt.

SPX
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Made a new 0.0% retrace. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1329.15). QE2infinity. JBTFD…



DXY
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still above the 14.6% retrace (77.54). Back below SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 77.90). Still below weekly 3LB mid.



VIX
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 15.69). Still out of the "no fear" zone. Currently has a monthly 3LB reversal.



GOLD
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). 0.0% retrace holding. Now above SMA(55). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1365.50). Must have the precious. Also still above weekly 3LB reversal price.



AUDJPY
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Trading above all SMA's. Still below its 85.4% retrace (0.8368). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.8319).



JNK
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Held above its 50% retrace (40.47). Still can't best lower trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.63).



10YR YIELD
Bearish short day. No test of 0.0% retrace at 37.44. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 35.20).



CRB
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. No test of 0.0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 335.44).




IQI
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above SMA(55). Held above its 23.6% retrace (11.68). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 12.30). Back above its weekly 3LB mid (11.76).



EEM
Bullish short day. Midpoint at EMA(10). Below all SMA's except the SMA(144). Still above its 38.2% retrace (45.06). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 46.76).



SILVER
Bullish long day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 30.27).

LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Bond Report 2.17.11

Today saw strength in the belly of the curve, with a POMO of 7s to 10s. The market shrugged off the PPI/CPI double whammy of 0.8/0.4, which means that was already priced in, as well as lingering worries about the US deficit and debt. This suggests that there are other things to worry about and that return of capital is becoming a factor in asset allocation.

Munis also had a good day, as there is just a tiny bit of unease creeping into the markets. But maybe it is just ourselves, maybe everything is for the best, in the best of all possible worlds.....

Corpies: LQD 0.23%; AGG 0.26%; JNK 0.04%; HYG 0.20%
Govies: TLT 0.13%; IEI 0.28%; TIP 0.38%
Munis: IQI 0.68%; MUB 0.59%
Mortgages: MBB 0.13%
Specialty: ZROZ -0.27%; TBT -0.32%

We remain about 45% long fixed income. We did have a hedge on, but we removed the hedge after the inflation data failed to move the needle at the long end. We re-entered our EM short and added to it. Follow the sick antelope and you will find the hyenas ready to eat.

We are not going to crow about the success of our macro model which called for 30y yields to peak between 4.60% and 4.80%. OK, we are. We see range-bound yields until it is obvious that the inflation meal has worked its way through the python. That could be months.

We expect that Colin is smiling, with Kevlar gloves laid to one side.