AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

I see another group of traders interested in the US market...

Creditcane™: Will work for debt.

Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Made a new 0.0% retrace. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1329.15). QE2infinity. JBTFD…

Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still above the 14.6% retrace (77.54). Back below SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 77.90). Still below weekly 3LB mid.

Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 15.69). Still out of the "no fear" zone. Currently has a monthly 3LB reversal.

Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). 0.0% retrace holding. Now above SMA(55). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1365.50). Must have the precious. Also still above weekly 3LB reversal price.

Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Trading above all SMA's. Still below its 85.4% retrace (0.8368). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.8319).

Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Held above its 50% retrace (40.47). Still can't best lower trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.63).

Bearish short day. No test of 0.0% retrace at 37.44. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 35.20).

Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. No test of 0.0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 335.44).

Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above SMA(55). Held above its 23.6% retrace (11.68). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 12.30). Back above its weekly 3LB mid (11.76).

Bullish short day. Midpoint at EMA(10). Below all SMA's except the SMA(144). Still above its 38.2% retrace (45.06). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 46.76).

Bullish long day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 30.27).


The Bond Report 2.17.11

Today saw strength in the belly of the curve, with a POMO of 7s to 10s. The market shrugged off the PPI/CPI double whammy of 0.8/0.4, which means that was already priced in, as well as lingering worries about the US deficit and debt. This suggests that there are other things to worry about and that return of capital is becoming a factor in asset allocation.

Munis also had a good day, as there is just a tiny bit of unease creeping into the markets. But maybe it is just ourselves, maybe everything is for the best, in the best of all possible worlds.....

Corpies: LQD 0.23%; AGG 0.26%; JNK 0.04%; HYG 0.20%
Govies: TLT 0.13%; IEI 0.28%; TIP 0.38%
Munis: IQI 0.68%; MUB 0.59%
Mortgages: MBB 0.13%
Specialty: ZROZ -0.27%; TBT -0.32%

We remain about 45% long fixed income. We did have a hedge on, but we removed the hedge after the inflation data failed to move the needle at the long end. We re-entered our EM short and added to it. Follow the sick antelope and you will find the hyenas ready to eat.

We are not going to crow about the success of our macro model which called for 30y yields to peak between 4.60% and 4.80%. OK, we are. We see range-bound yields until it is obvious that the inflation meal has worked its way through the python. That could be months.

We expect that Colin is smiling, with Kevlar gloves laid to one side.


Jennifer said...

Geez...I go to girl scouts and you break out the four horsemen of the apocalypse? Some good stuff this afternoon. Re: guns -- based on my rantings and ravings, hubby did obtain his FOID card a year or so ago, but we never did anything with it. Re: government changing the rules -- see my portfolio on September 19, 2008 and you won't need any more convincing on that front. I have mixed feelings on the ideas of foreign money storage and fleeing the country. If the money is there, and I'm still here, I think I'm really just hoping that someday, the wee three will figure out a way to reclaim it, because I don't see how I'll be able to get to it for practical purposes. Realistically, relocation to Australia or NZ just don't seem to make a whole lot of sense. You'd just be trading some sense of community for being a total outsider. I kind of like Chris Martensen's take on the whole hunker down/build yourself a community issue. Long central Illinois farmland? (I've seen the family homestead, things will have to be really bad before I want to go there!)

AmenRa said...


Another market truism that is BS: "Markets Can Stay Irrational Longer Than Investors Can Stay Solvent"

I really think this is applied more toward those who are bearish to try and prove the bullish case.

AmenRa said...


The FHOTA just hit me when I was thinking about how bullish the sell side analysts are.

Anonymous said...

alright RA,

,you prompt me to pull this out, saw it a week or so ago:

around the 1:29 marker, enjoy.

- Ben

Anonymous said...

I think it's just a reflection, btw.

AmenRa said...


I saw what looked like a pale green horse. But the crowd reaction rebuffs that possibility.

Anonymous said...

re: S&W

looks like it has one more hurdle to jump(the 200sma)

though, might be able to construe it as "construction", at this juncture..

but, Income -24.44M


Anonymous said...


still, hasn't given up on to the 20sma..


"construction", above="constructive"


karen said...

AR, what did prompt you to put up the Four Horseman? Had you seen the clip that Ben linked?

BTW, we knew this--Not all is rosy in the Australian economy

karen said...

Reuters Science News
Here comes the sun: Solar flares make way to Earth

I'm really counting on something other than the WEATHER, the ECONOMY, or the QE2 to move the markets.. up, of course, as that is the only direction possible.

Anonymous said...

...The condition of high unemployment and rising cost-push inflation from high energy and food prices and a weak currency while housing prices sink doesn't need a new name like "biflation" or some other nonsense. Inflation is a process not an event. Monetary policy with respect to housing in the FIRE Economy and commodity prices and wages in the Productive Economy are separate but related phenomena. As asset prices in sectors of the FIRE Economy continue to deflate, inflation is developing from the early stages, when manufactures reduced package sizes and inputs quality as we forecast to the next stage, good old fashion goods, services, and wage price inflation. If the Fed doesn't get on the stick and stop it, commodity and wage price inflation is going to get ugly in the Productive Economy in the coming quarters. On the other hand, if the Fed does get on the stick to stop it, the FIRE Economy will crash anew, with the politically critical real estate sector taking the biggest hit. This culmination of the inherent contradiction of monetary policy objectives between the FIRE Economy and the Productive Economy is the end of the line for the either the FIRE Economy or the Productive Economy. The Fed will be forced to choose between them. (More..)



AmenRa said...

Facebook Users Dodge Censors to Scale China Great Firewall

The Great Firewall of China has helped the government block websites from the Falun Gong to Twitter Inc. for years in the world’s most censored Internet market. He Xin recently discovered how to bypass the restrictions.

“I climbed over the wall,” said He, an electrical technology major at China’s Yanshan University in Qinhuangdao. “Very few of my classmates and friends can climb over the wall, so I can’t add them as friends on Facebook yet.”

He uses UltraReach Internet Corp.’s free Ultrasurf, one of the growing number of so-called Virtual Private Network services used in the world’s biggest Internet market to circumvent censors. Facebook Inc. users in China, blocked in the country since 2009, have more than doubled in the past month to exceed 700,000 after Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg visited the country, according to data compiled by, a site dedicated to analyzing Facebook statistics.

Let's see how long it takes China to put a stop to this ROR

Anonymous said...

this again, keeping the eagle eye:

- Ben

AmenRa said...


Had to create the spread since my provider doesn't have it. Used 3 month LIBOR and 90 Day USTs. Added it to the morning post.

wunsacon said...

I keep hearing hoofbeats. But, is it just my imagination (running away with me)? So far: "yes".

When's a bear finally going to appear? I want to see a bear ride in on one of those horses!

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