ES (daily info)-no change (above mid)
trend=up
high= 1327.75
rev= 1315.75; mid= 1321.75
ES in the AH has already taken out the weekly high price. It's opex week aka bear stew. Unless the PPI, CPI and weekly claims are WTE the bears may want to hide in their caves. Markets should be allowed to correct sometimes so the cave is only temporary.
AUDJPY vs 10yr NoteI don't like the fact that this graph is indicating that "risk on" mode is back.
Unforunately this is what happens to bears during opex week...
161 comments:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/How-the-middle-class-became-cnnm-2876148381.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=
How the middle class became the underclass
Futures acting like PPI might be BTE. Considering how much certain commodities have risen the raw goods component should be very high.
core up .5% . . .hmmmm . . .
6% annualized- sounds like 'flation to me
@rcwhalen: CNBC just called to kill the segment today. They knew last night that I was downgrading WFC. Wonder why...//hmmmm
read this headline:
Housing Starts Surge in January, Permits Tumble
The only thing that matters in that headline is "Permits Tumble"
not a good sign going into the Spring market as permits presage starts
wow- this place is pretty sleepy in the morning anymore . . .
so- now that we have some 'flation- what will be the Fed's excuse for continuation of QE-
unemployment? they better explain that real good so dumbass's such as myself can understand . . .
and finally- as futures are still positive- my impression is there are expectations and hope for 9:15 data on industrial production . . .
I now rest my pen (er . . .fingers)
ahab
What? CNBC doesn't want any negative financial news? Especially since core PPI was WTE.
ahab
Food under crude goods up 4.3% m-o-m. Ouch.
from the PPI report:
Crude foods: The index for crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs increased 4.3 percent in January.
From October to January, prices for crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs moved up 5.6 percent after
rising 11.8 percent in the 3 months ended October 2010. Nearly half of the January monthly
advance can be traced to a 7.6-percent gain in the slaughter cattle index. Higher prices for hay,
hayseeds, and oilseeds and for slaughter borrow and gilts also were factors in the increase in the
crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs index. (See table 2.)
Ra-
here's the question- is the inflation nirvana the Fed has been looking for?
and if so . . .how does it affect policy?
and industrial production-
"U.S. industrial output unexpectedly fell in January . . .The drop was the first decline in output since June 2009 and was well below the median forecast for a 0.5 percent increase in a Reuters poll of economists after December's originally reported 0.8 percent gain."
Come give me a BIG hug!
(you gonna stay a while this time?)
good morning, or not! had a coffee incident--that never bodes well for my day : (
ahab
The inflation the Fed wants has to show up in the CPI.
Capacity utilization fell so there's more idle equipment in the factories. Which also means less workers needed.
OMG SPX just tagged 100% from the low.
possible scenario-
a shake out of any shorts- then retreat below the starting line
that's it.. my nightmare came true.. $tran and $wlsh.. new highs..
what possessed $tran to do that is beyond me...
Ra @ 9:36
I understand- but companies can only eat increases for so long-
in they end- they aren't going to fold up and close shop because they are afraid to pass price increases onto the consumer (would they prefer to go out of business?)
guys, I'm compelled to ask a couple basic questions, lets frame them by reposting the data:
"From October to January, prices for crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs moved up 5.6 percent after
rising 11.8 percent in the 3 months ended October 2010"
Questions:
1. If you are going to use prices as your inflation gauge then why on Earth would you expect anything different from the Fed, prices on commodities have generally risen for over two years now. This is not a new trend.
2. Based on the quote above it would look like your inflation is slowing down would it not? If that's the case why would this be the inflation the Fed is looking for?
3. Please find me one period of "inflation" when short rates stayed near zero, and they've also been there for two years. Now if your forecast is that they will rise fine, but until they do......
4. Again, using the data above, it would appear the inflation started well before QE2 now in the middle of QE2 is slowing, boy, guess markets ARE super efficient!, that said, if the Fed stops now, would they not be reacting to the market? Still would appear to me that it is the market that dictates Fed policy at every turn, and they are always behind the ball, basking in the glory of everyone giving them credit for being all knowing.
5. Last, what makes this PPI rise different from the one in 2008?
- Ben
Karen,
$tran should be a good lesson for any students of dow theory
as I mentioned to Jennifer here a few weeks ago when many started to highlight the "bearish non-confirmation of the transports"
this was just a non-confirmation, it's not bearish, and given that nice rounded bottom and I can even see an inverse H&S there, the charts pointed to it confirming the DOW, not continuing to go down.
- Ben
b22-
where you been?
also- what does food have to do with the core rate?
The Fed has been looking for signs of inflation (core rate). . .using it a reason for their policy actions-
if the Fed winds down QE2 because they have realized their goal- that has the implications for the market
what i'm seeing:
weak euro and aussie dollar
bearish engulfing on GLD and making right shoulder
copper still falling
crude still falling
spy still hasn't exceeded 2008 high of 135.73 or the 2000 left shoulder, 134.31..
http://www.downstreamtoday.com/news/article.aspx?a_id=25676&AspxAutoDetectCookieSupport=1
Tankers loaded with European gasoline are headed west across the Atlantic, even though U.S. suppliers are already swimming in the fuel.
zerohedge
Per Chris Whalen, Wells Fargo's CFO Quit Due To An Internal Dispute Over Financial Disclosures http://is.gd/opNRPo
Ben
FWIW the only inflation that bothers the Fed is wage inflation. Anything else and they just tell you to deal with it.
Let me count the ways that Stalker Andy, while protesting to the contrary that he is not a crazed scum bag creepy stalker, continues his quest. 14 visits since noon yesterday.
Hmmm, sounds real normal to me, who merely wants to blow kisses and give big warm bear hugs to one of our posters. Fucking stalker.
I have X'ed out his IP address but trust me, I can provide all of the IP addresses that his proxy server uses.
Yes, he is so desperate to invade the other website that he has resorted to using a proxy server, but he forgets that we have plenty of IT power on our side. No one is really anonymous.
Referrer No referring link
Host Name XX.XX.XX.XX rdns.blackberry.net
IP Address XX.XX.XX.XX Andy [Edit Label]
Country United States
Region
City
ISP Research In Motion
Returning Visits 0
Visit Length 11 hours 38 mins 31 secs
VISITOR SYSTEM SPECS
Browser BlackBerry 0
Operating System BlackBerry OS
Resolution Unknown
Javascript Disable
Maybe I should copy and paste every one of Andy's attempts to access the other site.
How many months has this been going on? And you people think this is normal for an adult professional male?
Topnotch yesterday on ZB/TLT, and ES
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=njuU5pelijk
Forgot the link...
there is nothing like looking at the DIA, SPY and QQQQ charts from 1999 till today.. you want to see a real volume drop off? check the Qs from 2009 to now..
there is no way in hell this madness can continue much longer without some sort of correction.
Is this the final push that'll break the camels back?
Damn that was a rush...
We still have 12320 to tag on YM, thats a healthy 55 pts up from here.
We could easily tag it today, given the consolidation we've been through past few sessions.
Just booked a nice one, so will play the pullback game from here on out.
Lets see if they even let it get oversold on the 1min Sto...
Probably wont.
TLT having trouble at the 20 dma
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-16/all-you-need-to-know-about-financial-crisis-commentary-by-michael-lewis.html
MEH -- IPGP on fire...5 min cup and handle so I don't think the parabolic move is done yet.
1339 tick here we come....
Ahab,
who said anything about food? please for the love of god can we not go there.....
Also, this:
The Fed has been looking for signs of inflation (core rate). . .using it a reason for their policy actions-
No they aren't looking at the core rate, that's total nonsense, they are continuing to watch money supply plus credit and like they have for over 15 years, they'll watch 90 day t-bill rates for indications of when they need to tighten, I know people don't want to hear this but Greenspan just told the truth when he was accused of keeping rates too low too long, he responded by saying "no I didn't, the market did" but I know I know, the Fed is God, so how can that be???, like Ra said, they don't care at all if prices rise on commodities, the PPI could get back to it's trend before October in the next three months rising 12% and guess what, I'm saying I still don't think they will care at all.
I'd highly suggest a read of Hayman Capital's/Kyle Bass paper "The Cognitive Dissonance of it All" to help understand what happens when you are stuck at the "ZLB", don't take my word for it, listen to someone that has made billions the last few years, I'm just some Joe:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/48881153/Kyle-Bass-Hayman-Investor-Letter-February-2011
- Ben
McF Said:
"No they aren't looking at the core rate, that's total nonsense, they are continuing to watch money supply plus credit and like they have for over 15 years, they'll watch 90 day t-bill rates for indications of when they need to tighten, I know people don't want to hear this but Greenspan just told the truth when he was accused of keeping rates too low too long, he responded by saying "no I didn't, the market did" but I know I know, the Fed is God, so how can that be???"
AMEN, BROTHER...
So true. No one sees it, or wants to admit it tho.
Every move higher makes me scroll up and take another look at that picture...
Waiting patiently for 1339...think it will be about 45 more seconds :-)
b22-
you brought up food- with this:
"From October to January, prices for crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs moved up 5.6 percent after rising 11.8 percent in the 3 months ended October 2010"
possibly in reply to Ra
as far as the core rate- the Fed as an institution had said it looks at the core rate-
who am I to call them liars
Anon,
I really don't care what Andy does with his free time, how many times he tries to access your site, I don't even know what a proxy server is. If he stayed on your site 24 hours a day I'd still read his charts, so that's where I'm coming from. If he called you all idiots, I'd still read his charts, if he went on your blog and used language like "go eff yourself" then I'd still read his charts,... several of you seem to assume we come here because we all agree with everything that each other says, but it's not the case. You get real angry when CV might say certain things toward Thor but what you fail to understand is that if we got angry that you were deleting posts, what kind of hypocrites would we be if we started to lecture CV about what he can and cannot say on a blog that up until recently he was primarily running. It's not my responsibility or anyone else's here to "keep someone in line" You keep getting angry that nobody here is yelling at Andy but I went over to your site yesterday and the day before and read through several threads and I didn't see a single post by him so who knows what you are even talking about. None of us can tell. My guess is the more you bring it up, the more Andy will egg you on.
- Ben
Ahab,
ok, you are right, that was food, in any event....what the Fed says and what the Fed actually does can be revealed by looking at a chart.
I'm not older than anyone here, but the short years on Earth I've realized that I shouldn't take public officials words at face value.
Also, being a contrarian at heart, I'm going to go out on a real tiny limb that I admit could break and leave me on the ground with a broken leg.... and state that the VAST MAJORITY of people are talking about inflation, so it's highly unlikely that it's our biggest threat.
The biggest stack of offers I have seen since I started last June is sitting 2 ticks above the most recent intraday high...
YM 12285...
We will at least probe up to see how "real" they are.
There have been a shit ton of huge bids/offers being flashed around this week...
It started on monday.
They arent always "real" orders tho... part of the cat and mouse game.
Sometimes I like to think of them as "warning shots"...
did anyone read the theorist letter yesterday?
it was really good/interesting paper, my main hang up though was this line:
"That's how it usually happens. the center-point within a rising impulse when investors stop wondering how low the market might go and start thinking about how high it can go."
I have to say that my observation of:
1. other retail advisors
2. mutual fund managers and the people that represent them
3. retail investors
4. hedge funds
5. all momentum traders/quants
is that this is exactly what is taking place in general or within "the herd", they've all stopped worrying about the downside and have started to think about the upside, seems this became more so after we defeated the Lehman Candle.
that's bullish
so, I wonder what I've misinterpreted, if anything....
- Ben
Or, just put out there to intimidate little guys, like the I...
Doesnt work on the rasta.
"If he stayed on your site 24 hours a day I'd still read his charts"
that's funny- the way I see it it's like looking at a train wreck- you want to turn away- but you're compelled to keep looking
b22- nothing wrong w/ being a contrarion. I guess my point is the Fed lays out what it's looking for . . .bullshit or no bullshit . . .if the core rate on the consumer side starts jacking up- then I think folks anticipate a reaction . . .
@ Bob
Have you taken a stab at eurusd this week? A few pips higher on that and its looking mucho shortable...
FOMC minutes out today?
yeah, 2pm est
I check this every morning, to keep the I on "toes"...
http://fidweek.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=16&month=2&year=2011&cust=mam
Thanks, I-Man.
I
OPEX weeks aren't good to me. New rule, no trades until wednesday OPEX, and then bet opposite what I think.
Haven't pulled the trigger yet.
It's hanging right at a bunch of big levels money/volume wise, and the 618 of the 1/10 to 2/2. Long term MA's (day/weekly) also in this area.
Whiplash city.
"bullshit or no bullshit . . .if the core rate on the consumer side starts jacking up- then I think folks anticipate a reaction"
ahab,
I'm sure a lot of people will be doing exactly that (wrongly though, imo)
The Fed's are nothing more than glorified politicians, they say one thing, make it sound real compelling, and then they change their mind later on. Just think about the first statments on QE2 and what they have now morphed into.
While we can certainly misinterpret them, charts can't lie, people, on the other hand, feel compelled to when their back is against the wall though....
that was me, at 11:08
- Ben
also- funny you bring up ZLB- just printed and read that exact article while eating lunch yesterday-
I like this quote:
"our understanding of the potential usefulness of nonstandard policies for escaping the zero bound should remain a high priority for macroeconomists"
here is a question though- regarding the Japan experience- without my lazy ass looking it up for confirmation- but why did the Nikkei not have a 100% run up after their real estate collapse?
inquiring minds want to know
Probably a decent pullback entry setting up right now on YM/ES...
I
Also, notice the weekly candles between about 1.33 and 1.37.
They either slice right through the area, or stick, bounce and leave behind huge shadows.
Just need em to puke out the latecomer longs and its time to get jiggy...
Looking around 12260 for an entry...
Target 12320
Ahab,
I believe that the Nikkei has had at least 6 rallies of 45% or more since 1989, the overall trend remained down however.
Also, there hans't been an "after" when it comes to real estate collapse there, from the letter:
"with high end real estate dropping 50% in the last two years"
they are still in the middle of it, political pressures stopped Japanese Central bankers from monetizing enough of the debt to get them out, and unless you live under a rock, you can see that sentiment starting to develop here, our Fed has only monetized 5% so far....
going back to FI rates and inflation, this was what stood out for me in the paper:
"Herein lies the real problem. If the BOJ chooses an inflation target, the Japanese central government's cost of capital will increase by more than 200 basis points (over time) and increase their interest expense by more than Yen 20 trillion (every 100 basis point change in the weighted-average cost of capital is roughly equal to 25% of the central government's tax revenue). For context, if Japan had to borrow at France's rates (a AAA- rated member of the UN Security Council), the interest burden alone would bankrupt the government. Their debt service alone could easily exceed their entire central government revenue - checkmate."
- Ben
Also, didn't you start to wonder how you could profit off an "X-Day"?
we're all just a bunch of dirty capitalists over here remember.
@ Bob
I was looking at the 60min... waiting for the rest of those fools to get stopped out...
I wouldnt hold a position on this shit longer than a few hrs at best...
Targeting a flush out of the new longs, approx 1.344...
b22-
yeah- the Bass article has a lot of good insight
going back to anticipation and this comment-
"I'm sure a lot of people will be doing exactly that"
if folks anticipate won't they react?
I mean- if people believe there is a fire (incorrectly) it could mean they all stampede and trample people on the way out of a crowded theater- right?
Wonder if today is the day we see the ZB and YM/ES make a surge together?
And the little Bucky shall lead them...
Ben and all of you.
Look guys, if we can say one thing about this whole fucked up mess between the two sites, is that for the most part, we have left you all alone here. No one from the other site ever comes here 30 times a week leaving little pieces of shit all over the floor.
No, you don't see anything there, because after ignoring the constant nasty comments for months, we got tired of seeing them 10 times a week from CV and Andy and either deleted them or moved them into SPAM. Ben, I have no hard feelings toward anyone here but in all honestly whether or not you, or any of the people here believe that this is going on is irrelevant. It is, and everyone on our site knows it happens because we've seen i it constantly. It's gotten so bad lately we had to figure out how to block IP addresses and blocked Andy's. He's so determined to leave his little gems of crap that he's taken to using a proxy server - over and over, and over, and over.
You also seem to be under the impression that somehow we're trying to bad mouth Andy to you all. Ben, let me be the first one to tell you that you could all follow Andy like he were Jesus for all we care. These two blogs are not a competition, we are not trying to close this blog down or talk shit about it as a way to convince you all that CV or Andy are bad people and so you should all stop coming here and instead come to our site. Please, and I mean this in the nicest way, don't flatter yourself. People will go where they want to go.
ALL we are asking for is that Andy take CV's lead (jesus, who would have thought!) and leave us in peace.
This is a constant, obsessive, harassment needs to stop.
So - here I am, after over a year of letting you all alone, imploring you folks to talk to Andy and tell him to leave us in peace. As anon said the other day here, if anyone at the other blog wanted anything to do with Andy or CV they would be here commenting like the rest of you.
Last, and I think I mentioned this before, our admins see Andy's posts. If he'd like them out of SPAM then Andy needs to start acting like an adult.
gotta roll out-
throwing out a couple symbols- TRE and RBY-
what does the Traders-Anon crowd think of these two as longer term plays?
I know you all think this is ridiculous - so do we. It's been well over a year and we'd like it to stop once and for all.
We are not the people who continue to make this a concern and please, stop with the "just ignore it" bullshit. If it were a couple of comments here and there it would be one thing. This is constant unnecessary harassment.
Ahab - a few months ago you went as far as to call CV out for doing exactly this. Now would be a good time for you to do the same thing with Andy.
I
Also, in FX, this is one of the dominant stories-
Elsewhere, traders report that real money accounts continue to accumulate USD/JPY, keeping dips shallow. The heavy flows suggest money is coming out of Japanese financial markets, returning to the US or that funds are hedging forex exposures, factoring in a weaker JPY into their investment thesis. USD/JPY is steady around 83.90.
From forexlive.com
Honestly I think the dealing desks haven't been making enough on price movement, so they are just eating stops to grab some P&L this early in the year.
Thats what all these fuckers are doing, Bob... its not enough to just read charts and make good trades, they want to bully everyone else out first and make em chase.
Alright, just got filled and bought the dip.
Thor-
you know where I stand- as I've commented previously-
but if you have a blog- there are going be posters that you don't agree with you-
BR puts posts from commenter's that are "not trusted" in a SPAM folder and then releases them after review-
what else you can you do? You could make it by invitation only- that's another option
I
Look at the last candle on the 1h EUR
my 9:39 looking more possible?
Ahab -- don't know anything about TRE at all other than it has a cult following (among some of the seemingly better traders) at Slope of Hope.
Case in point, Bob...
jennifer-
yeah- that's where I've seen it bandied about
Ahab, I'm afraid there are too many folks eager to fade this trend for it to be over...
No one, no one, will want to short this thing at the top.
Thats how it will be formed.
of course some people will react, then some others won't, some will bet against the reaction some will add to their bets on the reaction.
some people will react with words only, others with capital allocation towards and away from certain paper
the herd never anticipates future events (real or imagined) in unison, that's not how bull and bear markets are formed and develop, they move in three stages. The first stage are the brightest people, anticipating before everyone else, these are the guys that bet against subprime in 2005, the people that bought gold in 2000 when everyone hated it, in the second stage is the response stage where more people can recognize the trend that has been in place for a while, smart players from stage one are still holding here or adding on pullbacks, the final stage is the frenzy and speculation stage, when smart money starts to exit and the public becomes convinced of an outcome and trend extrapolation becomes regarded as wisdom, you might say a stage like this could see things like people blindly repeating a cartoon that tells them to buy the dip, or else they are an idiot. It's no different in bears, you have a first stage where smart money abandons hopes upon which stocks were purchased, they "see" trouble early, the second is selling in reaction to things like decreased earnings or lower profit margins and third is when people panic, they sell regardless of value or are forced to liquidate and many believe the worst is still yet to come
That's a market, I like the fire in the theater example, however, when it comes to markets the entire crowd doesn't react at once at the starting stage and if the fire threat is in stage three there's still always someone like myself that stays seated, wondering if the fire is for real and if I might get to watch the movie all by myself if it isn't, stretch my legs and get the best seat. I might hedge my move to stay in my seat by looking for the nearest exit door or identifying the closest fire extinguisher, we might call these stop losses...just like in the theatre you need to control markets and become familiar with your surroundings.
Kyle Bass on strategy session today -- whole hour.
They will also get those stops above 1.3570, which is why if I were betting- we will see at least 1.3650 this week.
Where the hell do you set a stop on that to make it worth the risk reward?
Thinking about a walk in the woods this afternoon.
Ahab - Not really, BR banned CV for the very same reason we're banning Andy. I can guarantee you that if Andy were to post the same kind of stuff on BR's site he'd be banned there as well.
This isn't about trying to get rid of people who don't agree with us. Do you really think all of us are that closed minded? We get random anonymous comments all the time. This isn't about silencing dissent, it's about silencing a stalker who's sole intent is to disrupt, be mean, or stir the pot.
If it were every once in awhile it would be one thing, unfortunately Andy now harasses us more than CV ever did. You can get the IP address of anyone who comments and these comments are all coming from the same person - that same person, I might add, who was nice enough to put his own name on his post, nicely tying his IP address to all the other crap we get.
So I'm here today, not trying to stir up another blog war, I'm honestly, seriously, trying to figure out a way that we can end this once and for all. I'm imploring you, as his friends, please tell him to stop.
I think you just gotta have a bomb entry... and expect a little pain before the joy.
And then get the hell outta dodge as soon as you're experiencing said joy.
I think Ben would call that "ninja"...
I-man-
no shorting here- tried a little SDS last week but got out
also- just wondering- do you stick to ETF's in your day trades?
Jennifer-
marketsniper appears to be the real pro over there
Ever been in a building with a real fire? Day we closed on our second house, a fire broke out at the title company's offices where the closing was held. I was there with oldest, who was 1, and I was preggers, so perhaps I was a little more motivated to exit the building than the others, but the alarms are going off, there's smoke, and everyone is looking around at everyone else waiting to see if someone's going to leave. No one wanted to go first. He who panics first panics best. We closed on a picnic table in the parking lot while the fire engines sprayed water on the burning building.
Nice enough to put his name on his LAST post, sorry, up until Monday all of Andy's little turds were posted as anonymous. All with the same IP address, which is the same IP address Andy signed his last post with.
Ahab -- agreed re: Market sniper. There's someone who goes by Trader1 who is quite good at pattern trading, but I haven't really been over there in a long time...too chatty, even for me :-)
@ Ahab
Just the Dow Mini Futures, root symbol YM.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fkuOAY-S6OY
Maybe this will help.
Honestly enjoying the show and plotting moves further out.
Bailed on the dip buy...
Not ready yet.
Amazing how a few Iranian warships can wake TLT up from its coma.
"people blindly repeating a cartoon that tells them to buy the dip, or else they are an idiot"
I thought that was a PSA:-)!
"wondering if the fire is for real and if I might get to watch the movie all by myself"
lol- and as you say- keep your eyes on the alternate exits
pls note that TLT wants to go green and is really holding its own..
crude spike was related to rumors of iranian warships passing thru the suez canal.. hilariously, these rumors change every few minutes..
now they are just scheduled to pass thru tonight..
Breaking News
In new 'provocation,' 2 Iranian warships to sail through Suez Canal, Israeli official says; hints at Israeli response http://bit.ly/hmb4ih
And the latest: Iran claims its warships are in the Mediterranean "on a training and operational mission" to counter Somali pirates: http://bit.ly/eENBt
@ Bob
Fuck you, I wont do what you tell me.
:)
I remember when that song came out...
Thor,
I'm not trying to flatter myself, I didn't write that with any sort of ill will toward you or anyone else, it was just my opinion. How mad could I be at Andy when I don't even know what he did outside of coming to your site a lot?
I think everything you said is more than fair, and you know I've stopped by that blog from time to time and posted and was nothing but respectful, hell, I came over there a few months ago seeking you out in particular because of your background with tech. So, all I can do is control my own actions and I'm not trying to bother anyone at your blog. I also have to agree, nobody from over there is coming here to cause trouble. Just a true statement so far as I can tell.
Still, I dont' get why some Anon is coming over here to tell us all about Andy. What do you want us to do? take it up with Andy....that's my point, I don't really care about what Andy is doing with his time because he's a grown man and can do what he wants and maybe I'd be more harsh toward him but like I said, I have no idea what he even did at your blog because I didn't see any of his posts. Maybe I would have found it offensive, maybe I would have found it funny, hard to say. Sounds like you've figured out a way to block him so why not just leave it at that.
I don't know what else to say.
- Ben
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AnfbhdELQLA
Exit...
Jenn. TLT moving on reality.. not the warship rumors.. that was done specifically to ramp crude.. the spread between $wti and brent was getting to painful..
and you can't believe the rampant lies on twitter about the warships..
Dodgin bullets, yo...
Lets try the dip again herre...
I have to be honest about something
I don't think the TLT chart looks bullish like many of you do, a little concerned it wants to go all the way down to the big support shelf at $85. I think it could turn at any time but I just don't find the chart all that constructive, I respect trying to catch bottoms though.
@Jennifer,
nice post re: fire
I remember I saw a video study in my psych 101 class at PSU, put students in a room to take a test, they push smoke under the door and plant someone in there to say to the group that it's fine, and you know what
nobody moves....nobody double checks to see if maybe it is a fire....
- Ben
kyle bass is on cnbc right now.. hope i can watch a clip later.. or someone pls tell the key points.
Ben.. you and i feel the same about TLT.. however.. i watched it from the get go this morning.. and it's hanging tight on the 30 min chart.. so it may have already turned.. the low being last week.. it's gotta get above 90, tho.. and then 92, of course.
well that was no fun...
"just like in the theatre you need to control markets and become familiar with your surroundings."
that was supposed to read
control your "emotions" and become....
- Ben
alright- really got to get off my ass and get moving- all have a most exquisite day
I-Man- thanks for the info
b22- good thoughts my man
Thor- sorry dude- can't get involved- as I felt bad last time around as I respect CV's thoughts-
my guess is Andy is trying to get into a debate- pull out your HS debating skills and challenge him-
what's the worst that could happen?
karen,
no doubt, if it got above those key levels, and I'm looking at the same ones as you, then it'd be a lot more constructive, imo.
this is one of those instances where I'm thinking I'd rather be late....
- Ben
Ben - fair enough, and thank you for taking the time to read and respond ;-). Not sure what the point is with the anon was, we're nearly finished blocking all the different IP addresses Andy's proxy server uses so hopefully that will stop soon and we'll all be done with this once and for all.
Amen - I saw your comment on the other thread - dude, super harsh. Everyone on that blog has always, and without exception, spoken very highly of you, your website (as well as Andy's I might add) are still on our Trading links. Thanks a bunch.
Ben,
Good to see you back.
I must confess I bought it back... already made it back.
Gotta get crazy sometimes.
exactly, ben.. me too.. late.. but TLT is really just not my cup of tea other than how it affects everything else. unless i want to park some money in a "safe" place.. NLY has been very safe and pays out a lot more, tho : )
Ahab - That may be true, he certainly has a fucked up way of trying to debate ;-)
Ok, I've said my peace and will now hopefully leave you guys in peace for another year.
Surely no one would leak a nasty rumor like that just to get a better bid...
sorry one last thought-
Jennifer- marketsniper brought up an interesting thought that I have been pondering-
basically- don't worry about all the talk regarding light volume- as many transactions are now done away from exchanges-
hmmm . . . .
Somewhere I read there's been an unusual number of 90% days recently, both up and down.
So, I subscribe to the live feed of ES futures plus proprietary indicator at Evil Speculator. I find it to be a very interesting way to watch price. Mole has a 5 min ES chart, with VWAP overlay, and a 2 std dev envelope above and below price. Price stays between the upper and lower 2 std dev bands approximately 95% of the time, with typical retraces to VWAP during the day. Right now, we broke through the lower VWAP band and have come back to retest. So far, that lower band is holding (extremely unusual) and the signal on the proprietary indicator is more strongly negative than it has been in weeks. FWIW. Oh, and I have to go in 10 min. Figures.
kinda fun tlt spike!!
equal and opposite action to $spx..
Category JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP Finished Goods 0.8% 0.9% 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% Core 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% -0.4% 0.1% Capital Equipment 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% -0.5% 0.0% Consumer Foods 0.3% 0.8% 0.9% 0.5% 1.4% Energy 1.8% 2.8% 1.8% 3.6% -0.2% Intermediate Materials 1.1% 0.9% 1.1% 1.2% 0.3% Core 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% Crude Materials 3.3% 6.5% 1.3% 4.7% -0.9% Core 4.0% 3.5% 3.2% 2.5% 4.0%
http://briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicReleases/ppi.htm
...This is the chart of the PPI going back 5 months...makes a lot more sense when you click on the site. The take home message I see is that food, energy, and materials have been frankly out of control since September. Now I like people to debate inflation, and I understand that the housing crash has crushed what is the biggest investment for most of us. BUT this looks like a duck and walks like a duck and quacks too....
Alright... need a break.
Workin too hard...
No bullshit twitter rumors about iranian warships while I'm on lunch.
Ahab -- I think that MS comment is sort of like the idea that maybe the VIX isn't as useful because people can hedge with inverse etfs and take some of that options activity out of options and into etfs. I'm sure there's something written on it, but I don't really know.
some of my posts are disappearing...
guys, comments like this:
"basically- don't worry about all the talk regarding light volume- as many transactions are now done away from exchanges-"
are the exact type of rationalizing you see near bull market peaks or bear marke bottoms, which is that old technical indicators don't matter any more.
I'm going to steal a line from Prechter's theorist to bury these types of ideas:
"This reasoning approaches the market backwards. it says the analyst will decide first whether it's a bull or bear market, then choose to allow or dismiss the technical evidence accordingly!"
- Ben
also, ETF's in their current forms could never replace proper option hedging strategies for so many reasons.
- Ben
Part of the problem with the Inflation/deflation debate is a problem of definitions.
Price rises do not equal inflation, on a national level. This may be getting into fed speak.
ALL prices have to be rising for the fed to consider it "inflation". How do you measure that? You take all of the money spent in the US in one year, and track all of the different prices.
It is well known that RE/rent makes up most of what people spend, and of the economy as a whole.
If RE and rent are still down, and falling, it has a much larger effect on overall "flation" than a 10% rise in food costs.
Look at a household budget of 2000 a month-
rent 40% (down 5%) 800 down to 760 -40
food 20% (up 10%) 400 up to 440 +40
Net result is no flation at all.
Price increases do not equal inflation. Price increases across ALL things equal inflation.
And, as others have pointed out before me, one of the best bets during inflation is RE, and on top of that we have low rates. RE should be booming.
oh, btw, that Prechter quote was in a 1985 letter he wrote on 9/17 directly after he had discovered that when he gave his "bullish" opinion on markets at that time based on his wave analysis Market Vane had called him back to let him know that the Elliott Wave Theorist was the only, as in one and only, respondent who answered bullish or long on the stock market
that was the background of the market blasting off then in a third of a third of a third impulsive wave up, we can conclusively say sentiment is anything but that bearish right now.
Been busy this morning, but wanted to make just a comment.
Ben@10.43AM. Thanks man. You make me blush....ha.
I hit up several blogs throughout the day (mostly this one) and will occasionally make a comment whenever the subject matter interests me or whenever I have something to say. Usually I have more free time to comment in the evenings and weekends to comment.
I like a few of the guys at the Thor/Denise blog and will occasionally respond to the discussion du jour.
I've never cursed at anyone...never used profanity ever, and probably 9 and out of my 10 comments (a high % for a blog!) were "on point" or "relevant" to the discussion at hand.
~~~~~
At this point, it's become more of an experiment in free expression vs AuTHORitarianism.
Not to sound "petulant," but I won't be censored in a public forum. I'm a little stubborn that way...
Will catch up this evening everyone.
Apologies for Thor showing up here.
Anon:
That sounds much like the theory in before Jimmy Carter, that we couldn't have inflation in a stagnant economy as you posit about housing. That battle has been fought, and the term stagflation was coined, and economists revised their thinking because of this recent episode in our past. Actually, I just got through,now that I made it to the mine, watching John Tamny make many of the points I thought when looking at the PPI early. You are limiting your argument also to the US housing bust, but like liquidity, inflation in this case appears to be a global phenomenon.
...I guess we'll see in another 6 months what happens...
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/debating-inflation-shilling-blames-speculators-%22pure-fantasy%22-says-tamny-535934.html?tickers=%5EDJI,TIP,TBT,TLT,GLD,UUP,SLV&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=
Debating Inflation: Shilling Blames Speculators; "Pure Fantasy," Says Tamny
It doesn't get any better than this...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/china-tired-manipulating-home-price-data-suspends-it
China, Tired Of Manipulating Home Price Data, Suspends It
Once again China shows how it's done. Instead of continuing to issue it vastly manipulated national property price index, the Chinese statistics agency has simply decided to stop publishing this highly regarded (if completely irrelevant) metric. From the WSJ: "China's statistics agency said it will stop publishing the country's much-watched official index of national property prices." The reason: even armed with Moody's GIGO spreadsheets to "calculate" the data and provide "output", the country was unable to mask the surge in property prices, resulting in a build up of popular anger. Alas, this move which is nothing but an act of massive condescension, and is supposed to get unpleasant data "out of sight and out of mind", will achieve precisely the opposite, as one billion Chinese know too well just how rapidly surging Chinese inflation is first hand.
from zerohedge.com
From the video- First comment on the Pro inflation side of the argument-
"inflation is a decline in the value of the dollar"
No, it is not. It is the simultaneous rise in prices of EVERYTHING. This is a definition, not up for debate. When the fed, or any of the wonks talk about inflation, this is what they are talking about.
"In economics, inflation is a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation
Can a fall in the dollar lead to inflation? Yes, as can any number of other factors, but a fall in the dollar, by itself, does not mean inflation.
It's all fun and games until they start playing war games in the Suez Canal...
It almost feels like Iran is looking for a distractions....
http://nation.foxnews.com/culture/2011/02/16/two-iranian-warships-about-pass-through-suez-canal-israel-may-act
Bruce! thanks, i enjoyed that debate..
Have to say i'm a shilling fan, however..
finally.. i can watch this: [Videos] Kyle Bass on CNBC today http://bit.ly/hKwzQa
Anon
I thought inflation was an increase of the supply of money and credit. Which would imply that the value of the currency decreases. Nothing to do with the price of goods and services. That's secondary.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation
"Second, both stagnation and inflation can result from inappropriate macroeconomic policies. For example, central banks can cause inflation by permitting excessive growth of the money supply..."
..Thanks, Karen. This debate interests me, too. Can you have part of your economy crushed, but have inflation...I will be watching with interest at the CPI and PPI numbers are released in the coming months.
"Neo-Keynesian theory distinguished two distinct kinds of inflation: demand-pull (caused by shifts of the aggregate demand curve) and cost-push (caused by shifts of the aggregate supply curve). Stagflation, in this view, is caused by cost-push inflation. Cost-push inflation occurs when some force or condition increases the costs of production. This could be caused by government policies (such as taxes), or from purely external factors such as a shortage of natural resources or an act of war."
I like Gary Shilling, too, but I am coming 'round more to the view that the "inflation we exported" (if that truly is what is happening) is coming around to bite at us..
I always took issue with the Friedmanites on that one: "Inflation is only a monetary phenomenon."
It seems intuitive that you can have "pockets" of inflation without monetary growth....
i.e. when they discovered Gold in CA in 1849, what happened to demand for land, etc in the region when that went down?
Or, oil in the Pennsylvania or Texas? 100 years ago?
Maybe I'm missing something, but it seems certain that pockets of inflation pressure can exist regardless of monetary policy.
another must read: http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2011/02/larry-kudlow-cant-find-bear.html#idc-container
and DO WATCH the Bass clips..
AT,
re: CA or PA oil, etc.
It's a very fine line, was that a case of "inflation" or "speculation"
Also, the comparisons to the 70's are hard, for me anyway, it was early stages of the biggest expansion of money supply and credit in the history of the world, hardly the same situation today.
- Ben
Andy @ 1:32.. i'd term that speculation more than inflation.. and supply demand dynamics (not money supply.. but goods..)
did you watch Deadwood?! it was all there : )
Neil Young
Prarie Wind
is a great album.
i thot tlt was gonna loose its edge for a bit there..
then again.. another leg up in the spx and down it will go..
Kyle Bass:
"what I'm saying is that nobody is paying attention to the key issues"
yes....
- Ben
do any of you know a good place to get data on rental prices?
I'm having a hell of a time finding anything at St. Louis Fed.
- Ben
Ben,
You know I love you, but I think we are in the greatest expansion of credit in my lifetime. It is just the exploding national deficit/debt. I think economists will write, if I am correct here, in the future about whether credit had to be wished for as in the case of buying a car on credit for example, or whether the population could have credit by proxy forced on them by the national government.
Depends on your definition of credit, I suppose, as inflation would also be up for debate as we have done here today...
If it isn't credit, then the national debt doesn't have to be zeroed out..
Bruce,
thanks.
I have to ask, where is the credit that you think is expanding? Do you have anything to base that comment off of?
Also, don't really want to get into the nitty gritty, please read the bass letter if you haven't already, you will start to see that market dynamics don't allow such a thing as the population having credit foreced on them.....
also, I think it's important to remember I've been a huge advocate of owning gold and silver (physical) since back in the TBP days.
- Ben
We'll raise up our glasses against evil forces, sayin...
Whiskey for my men, beer for my horses.
I-Man -- love that line!
Ben,
I guess what I am trying to say is I think the pressures have built that will cause inflation, and if I am right, it will be more evident over the next six months. I would like all of us here to be more like Roubini, than say, the NAR. I will concede that the problems we see in the PPI have not yet made that much of a dent in the CPI. But for the last several days, I have been using various stories and data points to bring my point of view to the blog. I will also concede that housing is still a bust, but I did indeed live through stagflation in the Carter era, and I do think shortages, whether oil or wheat or palladium or the raw materials for shirts...I simply think this translates into inflation...or better if you will inflation in a stagnant economy.
...It will be "fun" to watch and see if the price of much of what we use goes up. I am a fan of Mish too, and I realize he thinks we all end in a deflationary collapse. But some think there will be nasty little bouts of inflation before the deflationary scenario plays out..
and yes, I do think you can have inflation because of credit by proxy...
College tuition increases come to mind because of government backing that wouldn't have come about if it were left to Mr. and Mrs. America, as incomes have not matched tuition percentages..
You're hot, Karen.
Bruce,
Well, we'll see how it all works out in the fullness of time.
Also,
I've never been a Roubini fan, don't want to be anything like that guy, I find his analysis is always done half way, he loves to extrapolate trends, and to be frank, the guy seems like a giant douche bag to me, I get this image of him basking in all the glory of his newfound celebrity riding around in helicopters, taking pictures at parties with beautiful women that would otherwise want nothing to do with him, this is certainly not how I roll...I like to mirror people that put capital on the line, not their title of "economist", and otherwise maintain a basic lifestyle. Sort of like Hugh Hendry.
- Ben
Well, let me tell you about the REAL world, Benjamin.
Snoozer.
Tempted to call it a day... we done well.
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/02/next-two-years-in-world-markets.html
The plane crash clip isn't really like Jesse... the strain is starting to show.
Ha! My dad just emailed me the Kyle Bass letter. I was going to send it to him after the close.
Have a good night everyone.
just read a comment by max cherry over at Dan's who I've mentioned here before, he did some POMO research, total coin toss going back to 2005.
For those of you here that are true believers in POMO being the reason markets are up, how do you conclude that $600 billion, which has not even been fully implemented yet, can alter the course of a $16 trillion dollar market cap?
show me the light!
- Ben
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