3 Month LiborAll is not well in the eurozone. Hmmm Feb 25, 2011 comes to mind.
IWM/SPYLiquidity still seems to be increasing. But how can liquidity increase when volume is decreasing?
90 Day TreasuryTurning back down so people might be parking cash until the smoke clears.
Let's take a look at China's just released CPI & PPI numbers:
89 comments:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-15/u-k-inflation-quickens-to-highest-level-in-26-months-forcing-king-letter.html
King Sticks to Inflation Defense as Price Growth Soars to 4%
"Bank of England Governor Mervyn King kept up his argument that an acceleration in inflation is temporary after consumer-price growth soared to twice the central bank’s 2 percent target"
...Neville Chamberlain??
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-15/china-s-january-consumer-prices-increase-4-9-producer-prices-climb-6-6-.html
"Consumer prices rose 4.9 percent from a year earlier after a 4.6 percent December gain, the statistics bureau said on its website today. A separate central bank report showed banks signed 1.04 trillion yuan ($158 billion) in new loans, less than forecast while still the third-highest January total.
“Inflationary pressures haven’t abated and China has already entered into an era of structural inflation,” said Liu Li-gang, an Australia & New Zealand Banking Group economist in Hong Kong. He sees “more monetary policy tightening ahead.”
Feb. Empire State factory index rises to 15.4
8:30 am ET 02/15/2011 - MarketWatch Pulse News Bullet
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Conditions for manufacturing in the New York region improved in February from the prior month, the New York Federal Reserve Bank said Tuesday. The bank's Empire State Manufacturing index rose to 15.4 in February from a revised 11.9 in January. This is the highest level since last June and above analyst expectations. Economists had forecast the index would rise to 14.3.
...and import prices rise 1.5%...Lefty, I think you are going to have to play the TBT thingy...commodity inflation seems to be holding the winning hand at this point..
I posted a link to David Singer's blog last night. In the top chart, he shows the Dow about to meet the 61.8 fib retrace. So, my question is, do people sell these fib numbers on the dow the way they do on the S&P? I really don't follow the Dow that much, although I get the pop psych arguments that the Dow is the index that "the public" relates to. So -- significance?
Gold
1375.57
+11.42 +0.84%
CRB Index
339.98
+1.31 +0.36%
US Dollar
78.426
-0.188 -0.24%
http://www.ino.com/
Extreme Futures
Symbol Last Change %
COTTON #2 189.16 +6.10 +3.25
COTTON May 1.8880 +0.0574 +3.15
COFFEE Sep 268.15 +5.10 +1.94
ROUGH RICE 15.260 -0.470 -2.99
#11 SUGAR 0.3043 -0.0048 -1.57
URANIUM U308 73.00 -0.75 -1.02
Just something to think about when you ponder what Arthur Burns was thinking in the Carter era. We have some special circumstances in the midst of the housing crash...Drought and floods in Australia, drought in China, low grain surplus levels here in the US...and so forth...
Beef prices are also doing well for beef producers...and it looks like commodity prices will be high most of the year. Does anyone here see a reason they should pull back?
Bruce -- fundamentally, no. Overleveraged? yes.
I think the PPI #'s this week should be interesting
Deursche Boerse buys NYSE Euronext. NYSE shareholders to get 0.47 shares in the new company. Is this a way to get derivatives away from US regulations?
"Deutsche Boerse Buys NYSE"
yaaawnn ...if it could only be as successful as Daimler/Chrysler-
that was heaven
gotta roll out- interesting little slide show on past hyperinflation-
a Quadrillion dollar note? Yes, it's true- see and believe!
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41532451
the most interesting little tidbit- Hungarian inflation in 1946- ALL of their currency in circulation was worth 1/1000 of a dollar . . .
I wonder what a cup of coffee cost? Buddy can you spare a trillion quadrillion . . .
good morning.. i think we need to keep an eye on C.. got pinched.. hit upper BB and could back down now.
Keith McCullough
We remain long $JPM as American style Central Planning gives more power to the concentrated ones
Berkshire Hathaway reported that it sold all of its remaining stake in BAC yesterday afternoon.
Jennifer--
There will be a tendency for technical types to "auto sell" the 61.8% retrace, especially on the big indexes.
amazing!!
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/2011/02/15/2011-02-15_colombian_military_seizes_fullysubmersible_100foot_drug_sub_capable_of_holding_8.html
ahab's post @ 09:53 should be a reminder that 'Inflation' is, largely, a Political Act.
US Dollar
78.534
-0.080 -0.10%
AAIP
Real Time 89.88 0.36 (0.40%) 10:20AM EST
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TLT
Weak Mondays and Tuesdays is kind of a bearish sign for equities. Steady Tsy yields ahead of a potentially nukular PPI is bullish for bonds. Gold and silver are very strong, perhaps on a combo of Irish fear and British inflation.
We are still hedging our bonds into the PPI tomorrow, but you would have to say looking at the price action that we probably timed a local maximum in yields fairy well. The winds do seem to be shifting.
@Jennifer,
re: DOW.....my .02:
The dow is more widely followed than the S&P is when it comes to "the herd", whether one index or average is a better representation of the economy is irrelevant. I think when the average person is talking about the market, they are talking about the INDU. When "pros" discuss the market they are likely just talking about whatever they trade primarily.
Very few retail investors could tell you the price of the S&P but legions know that the DOW is over 12k. This is likely due to it being "bigger"....the number that is.
Further, fibonacci levels when found by using high and low price extremes often reveal nothing more than a short term inflection points rather than major reversal areas. So I'm not sure any short term reaction at the 61.8 should be looked as anything more than a short term reaction until the charts say otherwise. That DOW wedge, I watched EWI draw that wedge on the DOW and S&P and then redraw it, at least 3 times now since the fall of 2009. I don't think it is revealing anything at this point, just my opinion. that said, I'm a D. Singer fan, he's had some really good calls on a few charts over the last two years. IYR comes to mind, he nailed that.
Regarding retracement levels, the more I witness only short term reactions taking place at fibo markers using high and low price extremes the more it makes sense that they are NOT trend changers if you consider how larger players might bring supply to the market at those key levels because they know they can, or buying demand for that matter, I also consider what happens to markets when they reach sentiment extremes at highs and lows when weak hands are highly active. At highs you have buyers fully convicted that prices can only go up while bottoms are full of despair, both of these activities might fall outside of the primary grid that fibonacci makes on the charts and so are often extreme highs and lows are not the most useful ways to use fibos, at least this has been my experience. So I wouldn't mark the March 2009 "panic bottom" on my charts with a fibo marker. You'll notice however that 99% of people always use the high and low price extremes to place their fib markers, what's more, some of them drag their cursor in the wrong direction! I think it is more profitable to mark them at secondary reaction points when a new trend can be confirmed, which you certainly could not make claim for either at the March 2009 lows unless you were in fact going against the trend, read; speculating in the truest sense.
I learned how to apply fibo's more effectively thanks to Constance Brown, I'd highly suggest getting her book on Fibonacci Analysis and practicing it. JMO, of course.
GL.
- Ben
Thanks -- that was really helpful.
MEH -- GRM continues to perform as expected :-)
Ben -- is everything alright? Your absence has been noticed :-)
The turn in yields will soon be official if this keeps up..
J-
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=GRM
that's interesting, I looked at that last night, was thinking ~'that red candle doesn't look very +' ..
it'll be interesting to see if the 50SMA comes into play, ~15 ..
right now, I've no position..
AAIP
btw, you were mentioning "hangovers", yesterday, were you into the Scorpion Bowls, again? :)
Nope...gin & tonics. I find them very reliable at bars with questionable drink-making ability. We were at a school function...whole table of good friends...think we are now a proud owner of dinner for six with parish pastor for some ungodly sum. Alcohol and funraisers...dangerous combination.
zerohedge
A graphic summary of where we stand: http://is.gd/fdCEN5
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=IPGP&ty=c&ta=1&p=d
who likes this one to trade down to ~47?
now, 52+
AAIP
I think that might be better than the extremely expensive pig roast for 100 friends we bought one year though...and never hosted.
we probably timed a local maximum in yields fairy well
We didn't do anything "fairy" well, obviously.
Fairly well. Very well....
Also, just felt like sharing something I wrote to I-man this morning, I took a few parts out but the point remains the same:
lots of people are very fond of two quotes. these two quotes in particular have been around a while but it would seem like they are being repeated more than ever. In my opinion it is because both of these quotes lend themselves to the idea that it is ok to herd......at least for a time, something that makes us feel good or part of a larger group.
the first is a more modern day type of silliness:
"don't fight the Fed"
and the second came from Jesse Livermore via Reminiscences
"the trend is your friend"
I've addressed the first one at length, the Fed is simply following the markets, so considered in its fullness, it truly says "don't fight people that follow markets" .....ok. Nevertheless, it's a common quote, I read it about 30-42 times a day at Daneric's site, or any blog for that matter that might even hint at the idea markets can drop. Many prominent money managers make a point to repeat this when they pay for time to get on tv. The smartest managers probably love to go on tv to say this at the right time so they can dump, while unsuspecting Johnny puts himself to sleep at night repeating this phrase, a new age alternative to counting sheep.
today people have also abused Livermore's quote to blanket anyone with a contrarian viewpoint to the larger current trend, which for anyone that has read Reminiscences knows livermore did from time to time (become a contrarian and begin to build a "line" in the opposite direction of the current trend, he gives many classic examples of him doing this in the book, or taking short positions in certain stocks due to his tape reading despite the overall market being bullish)
I tend to see that people that like to repeat this phrase the most, they aren't even chartists or tape readers! It would seem in fact watching channels such as CNBC that many of the people repeating the trend phrase are "fundamental" analysts, which is interesting.
anyway, the point of all this is that in taking in all the wisdom found within Reminiscences we also find the following quotation, though I have never ever seen anyone use/repeat this quote in real time regarding their position:
"The course of the market at a given time does not necessarily prove me wrong. It is the character of the advance - or of the decline - that determines for me the correctness or the fallacy of my market position. I can only rise by knowledge. If I fall it must be by my own blunders."
Perhaps this might help some people understand why certain wave analysts might continue to hold a bearish view despite the rally, it's the character of the rally (interpreted as a corrective movement in wave terms based on price, structure, and time) that is causing them to make these claims.
- Ben
FFIV seems to have a problem today.
very interesting http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-5-year-scenario-2011-2016
J-
Claro~ G&T's are pretty hard to get wrong..
@J,
everything is cool, thanks for asking.
I plan on spending less time here in general just to focus on some other things, I won't stay away forever but I need a general break from here and the financial blogs on the internet in general. I didn't plan to post today but had some extra time and a few things floating around in the head so I figured I'd write them down.
I've found I've been getting trapped listening to too many opinions or getting caught up in discussions that end up going in circles rather than spending more time focused on my own chart work and development as a trader.
- Ben
MackieFear,
@10:47, that's a good thing to stay cognizantn of..
it, certainly, can, and does, happen..
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/cognizant
AAIP
Gold and silver pushing higher. Those holding short positions might be getting a little worried. SPX tested its daily 3LB mid and has stayed above it (so far). BKX and XLF also higher so the financials aren't part participating in the down move.
"...we bought one year though...and never hosted..."
J-
if something like that happens again, let the "Boys Club" (or, related) know..they love to 'take that off your hands' + you'd, still, get the 'deduction' ..
ibid.
Corn 701.00 -5.50 -0.78
Soybeans 1393.0 -23.0 -1.62
30yr Bond 119.00000 +0.06250 +0.05
10yr Note 118.625000 +0.125000 +0.11
NY Gold 1373.7 +8.6 +0.63
NY Silver 30.765 +0.231 +0.76
http://www.ino.com/
Corn 701.00 -5.50 -0.78
Soybeans 1393.0 -23.0 -1.62
30yr Bond 119.00000 +0.06250 +0.05
10yr Note 118.625000 +0.125000 +0.11
NY Gold 1373.7 +8.6 +0.63
NY Silver 30.765 +0.231 +0.76
http://www.ino.com/
(AP:WASHINGTON) President Barack Obama says the 2012 budget he unveiled Monday will force the government to live within its means while still investing in the future
Obama told a news conference Tuesday that the $3.73 trillion budget he sent Congress will help meet his goal of cutting the deficit in half by the end of his first term....
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=689766865771790
that's Rich..
ibid.
Ahab will love this!
While we're all familiar with the Super Bowl Indicator, have you ever heard of the Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue Indicator? The Swimsuit Issue Indicator says that the US equity markets perform better in years where an American appears on the cover of Sports Illustrated's annual issue as opposed to years when a non-American appears on the cover.
http://bespokeinvest.squarespace.com/thinkbig/2011/2/15/sports-illustrated-swimsuit-issue-score-one-for-the-bears.html
A must read:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/kyle-bass-latest-must-read-letter-cognitive-dissonance-it-all
Mark, I don't know what IGPG is, but it is on a tear.
That was supposed to be IPGP.
Karen -- thanks for the Bass link.
Power outage this morning, wake 2 hours away from home this afternoon. Shaping up to be a great day. Good luck everyone, I gotta go.
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=IPGP
now 54 1/2 +
IPG Photonics Corporation manufactures fiber lasers and amplifiers for use in a range of markets, such as materials processing, advanced technologies, telecommunications, and medical applications. The company offers optical fiber-based lasers, which combine the advantages of semiconductor diodes with the high amplification and precise beam qualities of specialty optical fibers. It also provides packaged diodes, direct diode laser systems, and communications systems that utilize its optical fiber-based products. Its fiber lasers are used in materials processing applications, such as marking, printing, welding, cutting, micromachining, surface treatment, drilling, soldering, annealing, rapid prototyping, and laser-assisted machining. The company's fiber lasers and amplifiers are utilized by commercial firms, and academic and government institutions for manufacturing commercial systems and for research in advanced technologies and products. In addition, IPG Photonics Corporation designs and manufactures a DWDM transport system, a range of fiber amplifiers, and Raman pump lasers that enhance data transmission in broadband access and DWDM optical networks. The company's commercial fiber and diode lasers are incorporated into medical laser systems that are used in skin rejuvenation, skin resurfacing, and stretch mark removal applications; and diode lasers are used in dental, skin tightening, and fat melting procedures, as well as in prostate surgery. IPG Photonics Corporation sells its products to original equipment manufacturers, system integrators, and end users through direct sales force, as well as through agreements with independent sales representatives and distributors worldwide. The company was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Oxford, Massachusetts.
Well, I just wrote a insightful comment regarding trading off of fibs and S/R but the Blogger felt inclined to "Conflicting Edit" the thing...
Oh well, if it pops back up, so be it.
I-Man
Comment purgatory?
One of these days I will remember to copy those before I click "Post"...
How in the heck can a ten year old do this?
http://www.businessinsider.com/heather-russell-lady-gag-justin-bieber-2011-2
We are handing over the Bond report to Matthew and any other blog habitues who enjoy composing a parody of a parody...
AFIA2BNL is sick and will return tomorrow. Good luck, all.
Bears need to do something soon or the day will close higher. These small dips are not enough to start a correction.
It also doesn't help that AUDJPY is up and EURJPY is close to turning up.
Bears will return later in the week. We have our regularly scheduled inflation scare tomorrow, with the PPI. After that mkt will roll over.
Think like the weasel.....
The Bears would do well to take a brief hibernation, work up an appetite, and come back with more energy in March...
They should watch the vernal equinox, and set their alarm to coincide with the spring salmon run.
hmm.. dbl top in fdx, $tran, and amzn???
Irish election Feb 25th, I-Man.
This will be sold, and quite possibly before the event.
You know I dont check fi the causality of exogenous events...
Besides, why would "they" wait?
If its risk, its risk, and get out.
We will see it on the charts well beforehand... like always.
That being said, I do have a few cycle dates that hit near there:
Feb 23 (Nov '10 low)
Feb 27 (Mar '09 low)
So those dates could spark a little som'n som'n...
excellent and witty! The 16 Worries Affecting Stock Charts This Week
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/stock-charts-stock-market-technicals-middle/2/15/2011/id/32816
new vid-- http://mrtopstep.com/2011/02/15/topnotch-sp-futures-bonds-technical-analysis/
...“We wanted to build a bagel manufacturing facility like no other,” said Tony Pariti, chairman and partner, Always Bagels, Bohemia, NY. “We’ve accomplished that, and the feedback from customers and equipment vendors has been, ‘This is the top of the line.’”
The new plant came on-stream in March 2010 to handle rising demand for Always Bagels’ products. At 70,000 sq ft on an 11.8-acre site, the greenfield facility represents a $20 million investment, of which equipment accounts for $7.5 million. In addition to its leading-edge automated bagel makeup system, the bakery operates the nation’s largest automated retarder and the first laser-based sorting and counting system of its kind in the US.
Today, nearly a year after startup, the bakery employs 150 people and distributes its products nationally. It operates around the clock, five days a week, with two shifts of production and one for sanitation. The facility ships more than 2 million cases of bagels annually. Always Bagels’ first wholesale location at Bohemia, NY, continues to serve the New York, New Jersey and New England markets with fresh products. The company’s business is 75% supermarkets, 20% food service and 5% club stores. While the Bohemia bakery’s products generally travel fresh, those from the Lebanon facility go out frozen, most shipped in bulk for thaw-and-serve or thaw-and-reheat at in-store bakeries. Brokers handle sales.
HUNGRY FOR MORE.
Supermarket customers are hungry for a better bagel, according to Anthony Pariti, vice-president and partner of Always Bagels. But it wasn’t always so, he added. “Consumers’ growing taste for artisan breads is lifting demand for authentic bagels, too,” he said. “And that puts the focus on improving bagel quality.”...
http://www.bakingbusiness.com/News/News%20Home/Features/2011/2/Always%20Bagels.aspx?NewsLetter=true
if that isn't a dbl top in AGN as well..
DUST looking like a good bet today..
GLD looks like one massive H&S to me over last 5 months..
interesting reversal in TBT and TLT..
Karen
Would that reversal have something to do with the budget? As in it's fantasy and US debt may not be the safe haven everyone thinks it is.
oops.. TBT and TLT traded places again as the indices sell off more..
http://www.cracked.com/article_19022_5-ways-hi-tech-retailers-are-secretly-screwing-you.html
Karen
Maybe the sell off is to stop gold and silver from increasing more than they already have. Or as LB suggested getting out before a "unexpected" jump in PPI.
Crude Oil
87.62
-1.11 -1.25%
Gold
1374.29
+10.14 +0.74%
CRB Index
336.13
-2.54 -0.71%
http://www.ino.com/
Anon
Cool article at cracked. Most people know those warranties are worthless.
Karen
I spy a double bottom on the 5-min SPX chart.
LMAO
Bloomberg just announced that they have the most accurate economsist as a guest on their show. It's Jan Hatzius.
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=IPGP
~52.40
looking, again, like it wants to go toward ~47..(?)
AAIP
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=TLT&ty=c&ta=1&p=d
~89.62
is it, just, me, or does that Chart look constructive?
ibid.
http://www.businessinsider.com/staples-vs-sp-vs-sp-2011-2
mark, tlt is indeed back in the game.
Karen
At this point I have no clue what the market may do. I'll just sit back and watch waiting for certain levels to be broken (either direction).
Karen
I think I'll do a 3LB of XLP/SPY and compare it to that chart.
FXA down fairly big..
HYG down.. TLT up.. JNK down.. UUP up.. GLD off high of day.. JJC down.. FXA down..
is this the start of a bigger correction?
JNK, HYG, IQI, MUB all lower. LQD higher. Dumping HY corporates and all munis. Prepping for PPI?
Karen
LMAO. I see we were looking at the same things.
NYSE TICK never got below 1000. So much for correcting.
what exactly are you all seeing in TLT that looks constructive?
Prediction-
AUD will come back to tag parity for OPEX
Well, I had a rare Tuesday off today and spent it in the mountains. Great day, warm springlike.
I think I sold the DOD, as Ben suggested, at about the right time.
Bought bonds with it.
If rates go up, I don't see how the stock market will go up also...not at these levels...
(This should come out as a weekly TLT chart, sorry if it doesnt... not a subscriber there.)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
First off, look at the baseline, steady, nonchalant, upward trend on that weekly chart.
That is a healthy indication of strength...
Look at the symmetry...
Think about everyone that bought the dip early in Dec, many of them just got stopped out...
Think about everyone who bought the last time we played this game in April of last year- anyone still long has almost sat through nearly a full retracment of their gains... think they're going anywhere now?
I-Man would take a flier on this thing gladly if it were I and I business.
Sucker looks ripe.
Even if you dont get a move up to the top of the range, a badass rip to 114 or so... you still have a great chance of catching a rip to 102 if it plays out wedge.
If you're wrong you're going to know it soon, and decisively.
If you want the fundy thesis, just think like an institution.
Post a Comment