Morning Corner 2.18.11

Composite Home Price Index

The HPI is back below its monthly 3LB mid and holding on for dear life at its weekly 3LB mid. If rates continue rising the move back to the lows might be faster than one would expect.



EMB (weekly info)
new low 104.58
trend=down
low= 104.58
rev= 105.97; mid= 105.28


The long term trend is down. The intermediate trends down move seems to be abating. But the weekly candles are small and don't really give any clues. Looks more like consolidation.



HUI (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=down (2 bars)
low= 504.77
rev= 581.53; mid= 543.15

Seems like the miners are now in sync with gold. This week HUI has gotten above its weekly 3LB mid. Are they ramping up production to keep up with demand?


TED Spread

My version of the TED spread using 3 Month LIBOR and 90 Day Treasuries. Only because my provider doesn't have the spread.



Now above the 10-08-6/10 trend line. Ruh roh?

h/t Ben

209 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 209   Newer›   Newest»
Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.nytimes.com/pages/business/

Illinois Pension Bonds to Test Investors’ Faith

"Illinois hopes to sell $3.7 billion of bonds to make this year’s contribution to its fund. It is essentially paying a single year’s bill by adding to its already heavy debt load. That short-term thinking is not unlike Americans taking out home equity loans to pay for cars and vacations before the housing bust."

AmenRa said...

No economic reports. Expecting another low volume melt up. Especially before a long weekend. At least 2/25 is next week and Ireland may get the ball rolling.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

"Illinois’s first attempt to shore up its pension fund with a record-breaking $10 billion bond sale has long been criticized, not least because it led to the indictment of former Gov. Rod Blagojevich and several associates on influence-peddling charges. It was pitched at the time as a creative way to strengthen both the state and its pension fund, by allowing Illinois to borrow at low interest rates, then cover the borrowing cost by investing the proceeds at a projected 8 percent rate of return in its pension fund.

The strategy failed because the pension investments have so far paid a lower rate of return, roughly 3 percent, than the interest rate on the bonds, about 5.1 percent."

Anonymous said...

Ra,

Thanks much for the 3lb chart on sweaty Teddy

I find that chart to be very important right now, was an early warning in both 07 and in April 2010 of significant reversal approaching, coming up on some key MA's....and then we'll see.

I'm not a pro at identifying fractals but I think one could be forming there.

- Ben

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0d063426-37e7-11e0-b91a-00144feabdc0.html?referrer_id=yahoofinance&ft_ref=yahoo1&segid=03058#axzz1EFdFLYNo

Debt worries return to European markets


Friday 13.15 GMT. Worries about the fiscal health of the eurozone periphery returned on Friday, exerting pressure on the euro and dulling risk appetite on equities markets at the end of a strong week for the region’s indices.

Concern about Portugal’s ability to raise funds in the capital markets continued to circulate ahead of this weekend’s meeting of G20 finance ministers in Paris and the preceding discussion between the world’s top central bankers.

Cap'n Ahab said...

if you look at the last few months- the stupid but easy way to make money was to wait for the market to go into the red- buy- and sell at the end of the day-

JBTFD indeed- maybe it was just a public service announcement

ben/Ra- you guys into options much?

cabin boy said...

bruce. . .but the euro recovers because of a supposed possible bump in the ECB rate-

go figure

Anonymous said...

ahab,

yeah, I almost always have some sort of options trade on, way into options.

and no doubt the buy the dip has worked, no denying that at this point, you bought the big dip last year near the lows and you are sitting on about 300 S&P points right now over half a year.....not too shabby.

- Ben

Lawrence of AHABia said...

ben- so what's the deal . . .what's the bible on options?

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://althouse.blogspot.com/2011/02/how-much-respect-did-demonstrators-show.html

"Here are some photographs taken yesterday by Meade (my husband) at the demonstration against Gov. Scott Walker's budget plan:"

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Cabin boy:

Yes, I see that. I am still interested (no longer amazed) to see how long this global debt balloon can keep equities above water..I would have thought by this time haircuts would be going on around the world, but the force is strong in this one...

Anonymous said...

the X-Day cometh:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/02/japans-social-security-panel-wants-to.html

- Ben

Ahab's the man said...

bruce-

democrat senator's fleeing the state- tweeting power to the people-

makes me giggle like a school girl

Anonymous said...

ahab,

that's not too easy to explain in a short period, re: options

this is a good place to start:

http://www.optionseducation.org/institutional/education/classes.jsp

- Ben

Jennifer said...

Why is there no responsibility on the part of any of these unions to acknowledge that they have been sold a bill of goods and they bought it hook, line & sinker. The money has never been there for any of these fantastic pension/benefit programs. They were always too good to be true. A simple understanding of basic math (okay, maybe I'm reading too much Denninger) proves this to be true time and time again. If someone, somewhere, had simply pushed back and asked a few hard questions, like "how are you going to pay for these wonderful goodies you are promising me?" would we be in this position? They were talking about the Wisconsin teachers protesting on the radio as we waited at the bus stop this morning, so I asked my 3rd grader what she would say if I promised to give her $100 million for a perfect score on her spelling test today. It only took her 3 questions before she got to wondering where the $ was going to come from. This isn't rocket science. I guess I'm feeling a little down on people in general today.

ahab said...

ben-

no . . .I understand the basics . . . but I was hearing this dude talking about his strategies and my head my was spinning- a lot of trade jargon I was unfamiliar with . . .

Anonymous said...

Some of those signs in those pictures, are....interesting

"I'm proud to be a worker"

I wonder how many times the person with that sign has said that until now?

"Keep your hands off State Labor Laws"

I think what they meant was, Keep your hands off state labor laws...that have a negative impact on me, it's ok if it's bad for everyone else

the true age of the individual.

as one of the comments hints at over at the blog

perhaps it's time Obama put a new task force together to clean up after those demonstrations, and we could have a clean up after a demonstration Czar to lead them

- Ben

Anonymous said...

ahab,

no doubt the options can get very complex, I told I-man this not long ago but one way I've practiced getting better at understanding them is if you have time during the day to watch real time orders come through watch for big lot options trades going through on huge liquid issues such as the Q's and SPY and then sit down on paper and try to figure out what the trader did exactly and what needs to happen for their trade to make money.

You can also learn a lot of what smart money is doing by watching Brenna and Jamie on those optionmonster videos attached to TopStep.


as for a lot of the trader lingo I'd probably only know half, one of the disadvantages of not having worked on a trading desk or on the floor, every trade I place goes through on-line, only a few times have I needed to call our brokerage desk when I put on some LEAPS in my own accounts.

- Ben

Anonymous said...

The same thing could be said to the muni holders-

how are you going to pay for these wonderful goodies you are promising me?

Bruce in Tennessee said...

I think both parties are probably little Lord Blankfeins with just less money.

Wake me up when Washington passes a balanced budget amendment. Then you can spend what you bring in however you care to...fish and chips on the house to start...but no Guiness, sorry...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

ennui (ˈɒnwiː, French ɑ̃nɥi)

— n
a feeling of listlessness and general dissatisfaction resulting from lack of activity or excitement

Anonymous said...

I have several teachers as clients, they are often the most vocal in discussing how hard they are working, always makes me stop and think

no weekends outside of maybe the random in service day here and there

every holiday off

oh yeah....and summers

I don't know, doesn't seem so bad to be, I wouldn't know what to do with myself with that kind of free time.

Most business owners I know work 12-14 hour days, lots of weekends, and when you own your own, there is truly no time off, there is always something on your mind as I can speak to this first hand.

In fact, it is probably safe to say everyone at every job thinks they work real hard. But hard work is a relative term isn't it.

I'm more in favor of what Chris Christie is trying to do with teachers in NJ, this three years and you've proven tenure for life nonsense has got to stop, and that's an issue entirely separate from the pensions and medical benefits they get.

- Ben

ahab said...

here- check this out- especially the letter a few paragraphs down-

what do we think?

http://www.commoditypress.com/category/all-posts/precious-metals/

makes me wonder about all these precious metal holdings that are paper

AmenRa said...

Jennifer

State workers took less pay for better benefits. The downturn took down private pay and benefits to levels below the state workers. So now the private workers are complaining. The problem is that it's class warfare but it's us vs us not us vs elites.

I read someone complaining about how teachers work 9 months and get 3 months off. They believe the teachers salary should be reduced. But what they don't understand is that the teachers salary is paid over 12 months not 9 months. They claim teachers work 6 hour days. But failed to mention all of the paper grading and lesson preparation that's done at home.

Anonymous said...

The problem is that it's class warfare but it's us vs us not us vs elites.

too true

and

I think both parties are probably little Lord Blankfeins with just less money.

too true


- Ben

AmenRa said...

Plus I'd love to see how people would deal with 30-50 unruly students for 6 hours a day. Everyday.

ahab said...

ben @ 9:11-

the schools are bonkers

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

Making war on teachers is missing the point. Trickle down economics doesn't work and all of the liquidity has trickled up to the buyers of $4-10M apartments in NYC, a booming market according to Bloomy.

This will get a lot uglier.

Anonymous said...

"Plus I'd love to see how people would deal with 30-50 unruly students for 6 hours a day."

how about 30-50 unruly adults and their money for 12 hours a day?

i dont know which is more fun

- ben

Anonymous said...

Everyone in our society feels entitled to something. When the something stops being delivered there is going to be a lot of trouble. You don't want to be around when a whole generation throws its toys out of the pram.

ahab said...

"But what they don't understand is that the teachers salary is paid over 12 months not 9 months. They claim teachers work 6 hour days. But failed to mention all of the paper grading and lesson preparation that's done at home.

Ra- it's different by county- some counties in Virginia do the 9 months- others allow the teachers to take their pay over 12 months (if the teacher wants)-

valid points otherwise

AmenRa said...

ahab

Even here it's an option for the teachers. Some do and some don't.


Ben

LMAO

ahab said...

"Plus I'd love to see how people would deal with 30-50 unruly students for 6 hours a day."

I thought they just put them on Ritalin?

AmenRa said...

Silver keeps telling Blythe to tap out.

man's man said...

Ra- did you see my 9:12? read that letter-

what do you think?

Anonymous said...

you've all probably heard this a million times but it really is a good song:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eM213aMKTHg

caught them perform it at the Grammy's and they sounded awesome

also, I have to admit, this Justin Beaver kid is really starting to grow on me.

- Ben

man's man said...

I feel like buying a bunch of monster boxes!

ahab said...

from ben's 8:50-

"Social Security now consumes a whopping 53% of government spending and that number will rise."

wow . . .but as I have said before- there is nothing statutory that can't be made "un" statutory-

if it's unsustainable- what are your choices?

AmenRa said...

ahab

I remember reading that some time ago. Couldn't Blythe do the same thing? JPM has the funds to take delivery. Then what would they do?

karen said...

morning! yup, $ted jumped again yesterday.. thanks for the above, AR..

ben, he's on the new rolling stone, i believe.. amazing young man, but he's getting controversial now..

ahab said...

and following up on the "X Day" post- we have this:


'X Day’: How To Trade a Japanese Bond Implosion


it seems to me that it would have to happen sometime-

but it could be like shorting NFLX- lot's of pain before the ecstasy

Bruce in Tennessee said...

"also, I have to admit, this Justin Beaver kid is really starting to grow on me.

- Ben"

Say it ain't so Ben! Not you too! Now I am afraid to fall asleep again or I will turn into a Beiber!

(From Night of the Living Beiber, on DVD or Blu-Ray)....

ahab said...

ok- I give up- what's a pram?

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

Pram = stroller (perambulator)

Tempted to play China directly from the short side.

18 said...

minor 18's
1368
....1359
1350
...1341 [you are here]
1332
...1323
1314

major 18's, w/some fibs
1537
1375
...1351
...1336
...1274
...1244 (50%)
...1212
...1177
1112

AmenRa said...

Looking at yields all I can say is "that which was lost is found"

Jennifer said...

Just to clarify -- I wasn't picking on teachers, the issues there apply not just to all public unions but frankly to our country as a whole. No one ever asks the tough questions, and now we are a bankrupt country with nothing but millions of empty promises. I think I'm going back to bed.

ahab said...

following up on the pram definition- if everyone wants a good laugh-

dude from Britain doing an American accent-

Challenge Charlie

pretty funny

Anonymous said...

JOHN E hour up.... wonder what the rest of the day will bring.
Liquidity pumps on in the US, off in China.

Sure you want to buy China, JOHN?

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

Radical, chaps.

AmenRa said...

Jennifer

I didn't think you were. Now remember that states also failed to pay in the pensions and used the funds elsewhere.

AmenRa said...

in s/b into

karen said...

this is what is happening today:

http://twitter.com/#!/NickKristof

ahab said...

and here we have the cold hard truth from Bass:

"Japanese monetary policy—like a lot of other Western economies (talking about you, America)—is committed to maintaining abnormally low interest rates in the hopes of stimulating growth.

But the problem, Bass explains, is that this is really a trap having nothing to do with growth. It’s about paying creditors. In order to simply afford paying the interest on its hulking debt, Japan must maintain interest rates near zero."


Exactly! What if Japanese government bonds increased to 5%-

carnage

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Thanks Karen, that suspends my ennui today...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Yes, Ahab. That is spot on, as the daft Englishman raised in a perambulator would say. We have reached the Catch-22 moment with our interest rate policy..

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Among other things, Catch-22 is a general critique of bureaucratic operation and reasoning. Resulting from its specific use in the book, the phrase "Catch-22" is common idiomatic usage meaning "a no-win situation" or "a double bind" of any type. Within the book, "Catch-22" is a military rule, the self-contradictory circular logic that, for example, prevents anyone from avoiding combat missions. In Heller's own words:

There was only one catch and that was Catch-22, which specified that a concern for one's safety in the face of dangers that were real and immediate was the process of a rational mind. Orr was crazy and could be grounded. All he had to do was ask; and as soon as he did, he would no longer be crazy and would have to fly more missions. Orr would be crazy to fly more missions and sane if he didn't, but if he were sane he had to fly them. If he flew them he was crazy and didn't have to; but if he didn't want to he was sane and had to. Yossarian was moved very deeply by the absolute simplicity of this clause of Catch-22 and let out a respectful whistle.

AmenRa said...

Silver broke thru $32

I-Man said...

Feels good to get back to some old fashioned dip buyin...

karen said...

<3ing Charlie!! THANKS so much for that : )

I-Man said...

I thought a 'pram' was a boat?

ahab said...

Karen-

not hard to believe about Bahrain

Speaking of England- never been outside of a layover in Heathrow- London sounds like it would be a blast-

big pint of ale and a kidney pie (is that a legitimate item? I like going total local)-

have to watch out for the soccer hooligans though (anybody see the movie "Eurotrip"- hysterical)

I-Man said...

Today's musical suggestion:

John Prine
Common Sense

Aint too common anymore...

SPX 1341 said...

I like it when you're above me :O

I-Man said...

Just hit the 12320 YM target I mentioned last week...

Doesnt look like it wants to stop now tho...

Kinda have I eye on 12358...

Might just be a let it run kind of day.

spoonman said...

Nothing says "sell T's and buy stocks" like unrest in the Middle East. At least oil is up, that makes a bit of sense...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Karen,

The Kristoff tweets are sobering and fascinating...thanks.

ahab said...

here's a question-

looking at Japan as the "model"- is it inevitable that we will be in a zero percent range indefinitely"

what of rising food and energy costs?

karen said...

Bruce.. his op-ed in the nytimes yesterday in case you missed it:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/18/opinion/18kristof.html?_r=1&ref=opinion

ahab said...

gotta roll-

all be good

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Fri 10:30am ET- Briefing.com
The CRB Commodity Index is now up 0.3%, which puts it at a session high and on pace for a 1.4% weekly gain.

Anonymous said...

Bruce,

I'm truthin it, I've got Bieber Fever!

I caught this quote of his on lady gaga's grammy entrance and thought it was hilarious, something like

"I know people are saying it's artsy and whatever but I thought, 'hey, she's in an egg'"

sounds like something I would have said at 15, or 16, whatever he is, sounds like something I might say now....

re: Silver,

that chart looks like it might just explode higher

surely CV is laughing his ass off right now

- Ben

I-Man said...

Ben you need to go fishing or something... get outdoors... get some sawdust or the blood of wild game on your hands.

This Bieber Fever shit is freaking me out...
:)

Bruce in Tennessee said...

I-Man:

That is exactly what I am headed out to do...chainsawing in the north pasture...

Back later...


Good luck and don' be a Beiberhater!

I-Man said...

Sounds like more fun than buyin dips...

Anonymous said...

the whole idea of low rates stimulating growth is always illogical at some point

this started getting mentioned 8-9 years ago which is that Americans are so overindebted you can go ahead an offer credit at near 0 interest and it won't matter, they can service any more.

that's the Keynesian end-point.

- Ben

it's not as if what SS is costing the Japanese what it is, isn't exactly what we are looking at in the not too distant fugure.

karen said...

Fortune Magazine
If the Fed's printing money, why is the growth of new currency in circulation below average? http://bit.ly/fkruiM

I-Man said...

I dont think Keynes knew much about THE REAL WORLD...

AmenRa said...

Karen

Don't get Ben started :-)

The Fed is creating credit that goes into the banks excess reserves. The reason it's not currently inflationary is that the credit just sits there. No one is borrowing so there's no velocity.

karen said...

TLT chart just went back to ugly..

Anonymous said...

89.23 -0.54 (-0.60%)
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=PACF_TLT

TLT fixin' to to close @ 89. (?)

AAIP

Anonymous said...

Crude Oil 90.43 +1.59 +1.79
Natural Gas 3.893 -0.008 -0.20
Corn 721.25 -1.75 -0.24
Soybeans 1402.0 -14.5 -1.02
30yr Bond 118.93750 -0.50000 -0.42
10yr Note 118.703125 -0.312500 -0.26
NY Gold 1387.2 +2.1 +0.15
NY Silver 32.285 +0.715 +2.25

ibid.

AmenRa said...

TLT rejected at the SMA(21) and the trendline. Kind of like watching your shot get blocked and pinned to the backboard.

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

I wonder if the NYT will be even more disgusted when the police in the US start beating and killing people. For now it is Bahrain.

Think it can't happen here? Kent State, people......
If you have ever been to NE Ohio, btw, you would think... HERE???

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

Portugal at 8.33% now.

When does the POMO show stop and take a breather?
Does some major government say Stop the Madness?

There is live fire in Bahrain and USTs are selling off.
This market is not normal.

But then we knew that....

karen said...

AGQ is something else.. no profit taking on the horizon..

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

EURUSD is effing ridiculous. There is no way the ECB will hike and if they did we would see an almighty market crash. EUR will back up next week as the Irish elections come into view.

Gold and silver will be screaming until Ireland and Portugal are resolved.

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

We are now 27% short China and EMs and 14% long US equities.
45% US fixed income.

I-Man said...

One more big run and they'll call it done... 12360 on YM should do it.

karen said...

this one is for CV! Legacy Trades
ARBITRAGE - Beautiful day out, I'm off to my local Bank for a $1MM withdrawal, in nickels. I'll melt 'em down, then sell the bars for $1.5MM

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

I DID SAY DON'T SHORT PMS AHEAD OF IRISH ELECTION.
It is a happy day over at ZH...

UFB !!!

Imagine if they really broke JPM... wow....

I-Man said...

Anyone shorting PM's here is a lunatic, or just into pain.

karen said...

Mr Top Step
New Video: Danny Riley on End of POMO. What does that mean for S&P Rally? http://mrtopstep.com/?p=2539

karen said...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/friday-episode-criminal-reserves-flip-bond-accompanies-dollar-plunge

karen said...

montly CAT chart from Nic: http://stock.ly/content/details/8265

Anonymous said...

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=SRD.V&ql=1

baby Prospector/'jr. miner'

should do well..

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GFS.V

should be understood, has good 'prospects'(as a Co.)

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ZNC.TO&ql=1

should do well, pot. 3x/U$D 2+ by Oct.'011

AAIP

AmenRa said...

Wow it didn't take long for silver to retrace back to its highs after the London close.

AmenRa said...

AAIP

Was looking at options on IPGP. Not enough OI for me.

I-Man said...

A little Bluegrass to ease the day...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ngF7FcDW_mQ

Seldom Scene
"Boots of Spanish Leather" (Dylan Cover)

Jennifer said...

AR -- agreed. I looked yesterday. Maybe good for a straight short though...I had some success with FFIV this week, shhhh don't tell though since stocks are only supposed to go up.

Anonymous said...

Karen and I have been saying this for a long time: oil is gamed.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/02/guest-post-the-price-of-oil-–-where-the-outrage.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+NakedCapitalism+%28naked+capitalism%29

T Bone Pickins said...

You're dad gum right thar, pardner.

Anonymous said...

Forex & Bonds Last Change Change %
EUR/USD 1.3667 +0.0062 +0.46%
USD/JPY 83.23 -0.10 -0.12%
GBP/USD 1.6235 +0.0064 +0.40%
5-Year Treasury 2.309 +0.027 +1.18%
10-Year Treasury 3.616 +0.042 +1.18%
30-Year Treasury 4.719 +0.057 +1.22%
http://finviz.com

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=KC

273.75 on the Speed Bean..

who likes U$D ~4/lb. Coffee Prices?

ibid.

Anonymous said...

We are 30% short now.

Somebody is going to do something over the weekend that might be construed as monetary tightening. Not Bernanke, BoE or ECB.

The emerging markups are in trouble, someone will crack.

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

Hey Euro bulls:

REALLY ????

karen said...

i had to short some silver.. a hedge against all the physical i have in my pantry! LOL

AmenRa said...

Silver has broken thru earlier highs. It's like watching a boxing match after the bell has rung but a fighter is still getting pounded.

AmenRa said...

Could say the same thing about DXY.

Jennifer said...

Its odd...most days, we're up 10 points, but it feels like we're up 100. Today, we're up 50, but it has that up 5 feeling to me.

karen said...

LB.. you might enjoy some of the articles here:

"My theory (and this is just a theory) is that the ECB refused to accept some bank debt as collateral for MROs due to market volatility in that debt."

http://blog.cornerturned.com/

Andy T said...

Wonder what ol' Robert LaFollette would think about what's going on in Wisconsin....

Anonymous said...

AT,

he would 'stroke-out' ..

AAIP

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=d1

re: Silver

looks like the 'parabola' is gaining steam..

Anonymous said...

The Career of Robert M. La Follette
Robert La Follette developed his fierce opposition to corporate power and political corruption as a young man. Affiliated with the Republican Party for almost his entire career, La Follette embarked on a political path that would take him to Congress, the governorship of Wisconsin, and the U.S. Senate. His support for progressive reforms, rousing oratory, and frequent clashes with party leaders earned him the nickname "Fighting Bob."

Born in Primrose township, Dane County, in 1855, La Follette worked as a farm laborer before entering the University of Wisconsin in 1875. After graduating in 1879, La Follette launched his political career... more...
http://www.wisconsinhistory.org/turningpoints/tp-035/

http://search.yippy.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&v%3Aproject=clusty&query=Robert+LaFollette+Progressives

'Progressives'/"Progressivism" (near)= Communists/Communism

ibid.

Jennifer said...

Neely's still hanging tough with his count.

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

Karen

The author of that blog is extraordinarily close to the action in Ireland, those posts are very valuable information and fairly close to real time.

There are all kinds of little stress signatures cropping up all over the place. Not like Lehman, but they are multiple and widespread. TED spread, LIBOR, 1 month bill buying, gold, silver, peripheral bond spreads and EM put buying are all setting off alarms for me.

Anonymous said...

http://www.youtube.com/user/thebarcaroller

This guy is interesting.
Uses sun activity to predict earthquakes and volcanos.
Hmmm.

foghorn

Anonymous said...

If I recall
LIBOR up means banks don't trust other banks.
See Spot run.
See Jane freak.
Watch Dick drool.

foghorn

Anonymous said...

"...but they are multiple and widespread. TED spread, LIBOR, 1 month bill buying, gold, silver, peripheral bond spreads and EM put buying are all setting off alarms for me..."

should be setting off Alarms for more peep, as well..

ibid.

karen said...

i <3 Neely..

no one else short silver?

Anonymous said...

Foghorn,

if you see some of:
http://www.the-electric-universe.info/

it isn't, too, difficult to see the potential 'causality' ..

AAIP

karen said...

i'm watching slv so hard i didn't see uso go red.. LOL

Anonymous said...

k-

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=h1

nice Candle, nice Call..~

spoonman said...

Nothing says 16 on the VIX like unrest in the middle east...wait, what? Loony toons...

Anonymous said...

You ever notice how water swirls down a drain?
Nice, long easy loops at first,
then smaller and smaller
til you reach peak velocity and are expelled down the drain.
The circles feel smaller and smaller...

foghorn

karen said...

hoping another penny or two on uup stops the fall..

Anonymous said...

Stupid question of the day.

If oil is 'fossil fuel' and is made from dead dinosaur goo,
how's come when they dig up old dinosaur 'fossils' they aren't covered in oil?
i guess it only works part of the time, eh?

foghorn

Jennifer said...

For a second there I thought I saw red. Oh, there it is again!

karen said...

silver teacup upside down on 10 min..

karen said...

effing uup.. i-man, curse at it! make it stop falling..

Anonymous said...

I'm starting to see what appear to be more topping patterns in some individual names.

also, it would seem to me that some traders want Johnny to be the one holding over the weekend...

- Ben

Anonymous said...

I don't know how anyone would want to hold heavy over the weekend in equity

the whole world seems like it's on fire right now from where I'm sitting

I think sweaty $TEDdy is the canary in Bob Prechter's cave.

- ben

Anonymous said...

Crude Oil 89.11 +0.27 +0.30
Natural Gas 3.908 +0.007 +0.18
Corn 715.75 -7.25 -1.00
Soybeans 1378.0 -38.5 -2.72
30yr Bond 119.21875 -0.21875 -0.18
10yr Note 118.937500 -0.078125 -0.07
NY Gold 1388.4 +3.3 +0.24
NY Silver 32.39 +0.82 +2.58
Emini S&P 1338.75 +1.00 +0.07
Emini Nasdaq 2387.75 -5.75 -0.24
Emini Dow 12336 +48 +0.39

(AP:PARIS) Finance chiefs of the world's dominant economies were close to agreeing on how to track dangerous imbalances in the global economy, part of the Group of 20 rich and developing nations' efforts to prevent another financial crisis.

European Union Monetary Affairs chief Olli Rehn said he was confident that there would be agreement "to identify and address global imbalances," but that discussions on the precise indicators were still continuing.

The talks Friday focused on coming up with a list of indicators to measure imbalances: current accounts, real effective exchange rates, currency reserves, as well as public and private debt levels, Rehn said. The current account measures trade and capital flows into and out of a country.

Germany's Deputy Finance Minister Joerg Asmussen said a majority of countries supported sticking to those five indicators. China in particular has so far opposed targeting exchange rates as it has resisted letting its own currency, the yuan, appreciate more quickly against the dollar....

AP reporting on the G-20 ( that's a good one! (as in,. Joke..))
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=6897670668375711

ibid.

Anonymous said...

Bahrain appears to be far more violent than Egypt, shooting at these people is only serving to make them more angry.

another thought on Egypt, it seems to me in situations like this the people that end up gaining power during chaos are those that are most willing to use violence

if that islamic brotherhood takes control there I have to imagine Israel is going to get pre-emptive

- Ben

Anonymous said...

I think the Revolution Genie is out of the bottle
Killing folks isn't going to make it go away.
In fact, it will probably have the exact opposite effect.
Interesting times, folks.

foghorn

karen said...

22.27 uup ...

Anonymous said...

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=UUP

a little early, though, may be beginning 'to look "constructive"

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=TLT&ty=c&ta=1&p=d
~89.32

is that looking to 'double-bottom' @~88?

ibid.

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

Marky

We think the bottom is in for TLT. Next low will be a higher low.
Next week Eurostress is on the front burner.

Anonymous said...

Bruce's favorite NYC bar re-opens:

http://www.dnainfo.com/20110217/lower-east-side-east-village/coyote-ugly-reopen-after-health-department-violations

karen said...

yay! uup!!

Anonymous said...

Driving that train,
straight to Bahrain
Barack O' you better
watch your speed

Trouble ahead
trouble behind
Where did I leave
that damn land mine

Train keeps a runnin'
down that ol' line
Hits rebel junction
about a quarter to nine

After Bahrain it's
on to old Spain
The oligarchs must feel
some old fashioned pain

Molotov cocktails
tanks in the street
No matter your cause
we will not be beat

Driving that train
straight to Bahrain
Barack O' you better
watch your speed


Onward thru the foghorn

I-Man said...

I forgot it was OPEX...

AmenRa said...

I-Man

Followed by a long weekend...

Anonymous said...

K,

Remember if we close RED
We expect panties.

Anonymous said...

I forgot it was OPEX...I forgot it was OPEX...

Followed by a long weekend...
time for some naughty Asian tightening.... smirk

FOLLOWED by ... a CLAVADISTA .... the SUCTION DEVICE

SUBMERGING MARKETS.

I-Man said...

Makes me feel even better about taking my winnings from this morning and calling it a week.

I-Man said...

The YM is the peaceful market... just look at how tame it is in comparison to the others.

I-Man said...

The Wang would say "Its leading."

karen said...

fantastic, foghorn!!

AmenRa said...

G20 ganging up on The Bernank. China telling them all to go to hell and raises rates again. WI Democrats found in Vegas. All Middle East countries decide to revolt. Could be an interesting weekend.

Anonymous said...

Gracias senorita

foghorn

Anonymous said...

Foghorn, splendid piece.

You are a splendid piece too, K.

Anonymous said...

"emerging markups"

that was Funny..and apt..

AAIP

AmenRa said...

TYX trying to hold on to 47+

AmenRa said...

Ummm isn't the silver margin call in 10 min?

I-Man said...

Nice 26 tick swing outta nowhere...

Anonymous said...

K,
That u-tube from earlier predicted a quake in the Gulf of Cali.
between now and the 20th.
Keep us informed, eh?

foghorn

karen said...

missed that youtube! will look for it.. thanks.. i heard moody's downgraded some SF company on earthquake odds yesterday..

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WdcQGJF_jmY

Geithner Admits: Obligations in President's Budget "Unsustainable"

...I'm back. (Palpable sigh of relief thoughout the room, followed by wild applause...)

This is a remarkable admission by the Sec. Treas. but I imagine the republicans aren't going to offer much better. I think the genie is out of the bottle...just keep enough money on hand to by popcorn.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

by, bye, buy, damnable English language...

karen said...

dia on the ten min is a total farce. ufb..

karen said...

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/marketjunkie/2011/02/18/silver-coin-shortage/

rumors running rampant..

Jennifer said...

Haven't read this all the way through yet, but in light of recent conversations...

http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2011/02/february-17-2011-inflation-for-innocent.html

Anonymous said...

do you see mention of shortage at tops or bottoms?

anyone?

- Ben

ps. JPM morgan has it all

karen said...

Jennifer.. i think our Ben wrote that piece.. excellent. : )

Jennifer said...

I thought of Ben when I read it...

I-Man said...

May as well finish strong and go for up a hundo on Dow at this point...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Jennifer:

Nice post. I too thought of Ben..actually assuming one or the other outcome, I would prefer deflation...

Let us hope the cost-push NeoKeynesian thingy is not real, but like most theories, is an ideas postulated to explain something more complicated that the theory considers..

Anonymous said...

re: riots
It just dawned on me that these riots are really being initiated by the womenfolk.
Think about it.
If Mama ain't happy, ain't Nobody happy.
Mama is getting starved and hubby can't just let Mama starve.
It is really remarkable how peaceable the demos have been and I credit it to the womenfolk.
It really is about Food.
Not islamic brotherhood bullshit
FOOD.
What a sorry fucking state of affairs.

foghorn

karen said...

Thousands protest in Bolivia over food prices - http://goo.gl/Cz9iw

But as the Bernank says.. that's their problem..

CV said...

@Anon (9:20)

Everyone in our society feels entitled to something...

I can honestly, really honestly, say that I have never felt 'entitled' to anything in my life...

It's usually the opposite actually... I tend to be EMBARASSED for what I feel to be good fortune...

---

Been busy most of the week folks... Mostly clearing land, and soil (new plots) for upcoming planting... The weather has been PERFECT for that this week in the East (& besides - the FA says these days are perfect for that)...

http://www.farmersalmanac.com/calendar/gardening/

Got most of the spring stuff (lettuce, spinach, rucola etc.) started this week... Plus, the EARLY indoor starters (onions, tomatoes, squash, peas, beans, and all the various herbs)...

Next week go in the underground stuff (potatoes, carrots, plus - racks and racks of annual flowers - gotta grow a lot of marigolds & lavender because the East Coast has been inundated with "stink bugs" and it helps keep them away)...

CV

Anonymous said...

The EEM and the FXI backed off early today.
Which is good, b/c we are short them.

CV do you use a cold frame? Plastic sheeting?

Bruce in Tennessee said...

I am sure it has occured to most here already, but you realize if we really are in the process of nation building, and it seems that must be part of the motivation, we could take over Bahrain with almost no trouble now, and start a democracy...and I imagine most of the middle east would praise us...but if we do nothing because the dictatorship is on our "side"....we probably lose...again.

CV said...

@karen

Tough thing in Bolivia (food wise), is lack of rainwater...

MOST (here in the US), would find that a problem too...

Seeds are nothing...

What's KEY are compost, irrigation, temperature & pest control...

It takes a few years (even in a micro sense) to get that process working efficiently...

karen said...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-18/lennar-bets-on-former-executive-s-housing-party-as-california-rebounds.html

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

Portugal is blowing out in 5y now as well as 10y, both over 7%

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/02/portuguese-government-pleads-for-help.html

You see my friends, it isn't losing the back end that is the problem. It's when you lose the front end and you start paying 5% for overnight money. That's when the loan sharks wanna breaka your face....

CV said...

@Anon

I use various methods... In WVA I have several greenhouses... I can heat them, but even with the bitter cold we had this year, the lowest they got was around freezing...

In Maryland, I utilize the "southern" exposure windows and have built portable racks out of PVC piping (which I can disassemble & store during the winter)... Those are to hold the racks and racks of starter seeds...

The "rule of thumb" around these parts is that you can't risk putting anything into the ground until after Mothers Day (as there will always be a killing frost sometime when you don't expect it)...

So the STARTERS really don't take up much space...

Outside I have a combination of everything from:

- Raised boxes
- in the ground
- hydroponic
- aquaponic (fish fertilized)

I like to experiment with the different methods... The good thing about the closed systems is that composting & rotation is easy...

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

A nice little post. We will leave you to draw your own conclusions.

http://dshort.com/articles/current-treasury-yield-snapshot.html

Anonymous said...

@foghorn,
re: women starting riots

As it should be! Women take leadership roles and become more prominent in Bear markets. At least according to the Socionomics institute.

As for that article Jennifer posted, that was nice, the whole thing, I couldn't agree more with this statement

"It is not how much something costs that matters, but how much it costs in relation to how much purchasing power people have, and that will depend largely on changes in the effective money supply. In order to understand what is happening to affordability, one has to adjust nominal prices for changes in the money supply and thereby express price changes in real terms."

- Ben

CV said...

...and as I said above

IRRIGATION is a key factor... In Maryland, I'd never be able to grow much if I didn't have a complex rain collection system (& conduits & pumps)...

That all has to be customized...

Anonymous said...

So your lettuce etc are just indoors or in the ground in greenhouses? Interesting stuff on the fish fertilizer.

Anonymous said...

The only reason I am watching the market today is to see if we close red, b/c, well, you know....

Anonymous said...

when it comes to the hyperinflation and deflation debate

for two years now, the fact is, those of us on either side of that argument have been wrong, we are stuck in some hellish in-between

but I think we are fast approaching resolution on this matter

if we get hyperinflation, it really doesn't matter in the end, that too, ends with deflation, so one way or another...that's where we are going, though, in the meantime, your investment strategy for each couldn't be more night and day....and this could play out over years

wish I knew beyond a shadow of a doubt which it was.....but I can only rank what I think is most probable.

- Ben

Anonymous said...

Bruce,

Here's something I've been wondering in relation to this:

"we could take over Bahrain with almost no trouble now, and start a democracy"


Is that what these people want, a democracy? Or put another way, what countries in the world are right now say...."gee, we want to mirror the American political model"

I'm not of the mindset that every culture is trying to be like us, and it's important to remember those cultures there have been around for thousands of years, we're just some punk kid a few hundred years old.....

- Ben

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

I will say this.

Jesse of Cafe Americain has been very accurate on gold and silver.

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

"we are stuck in some hellish in-between"

oh yes brother. there's some truth.

I-Man said...

Good ole fashioned 10 tick dip buy to end the day/week.

Peace, Yall.

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

"we could take over Bahrain with almost no trouble now, and start a democracy"

This pre-supposes that we have one and now how to start one.
Not the way it looks to me.

Anonymous said...

Ben
Don't forget our old friend from the long haired rock band days.
STAGFLATION
We are here now IMHO
As you pointed out, purchasing power is the key.
It is zooming around the drain, faster and faster, hence the 'food disputes' now occurring around the globe.

foghorn

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

Peace the I-

EMs are the weak antelope. The jackals are gathering.

Anonymous said...

STAGFLATION

Not here. Not much flation but a lot of stagnation.

Not even over there. Still growing fast. Wait until they slow down and have sticky wage inflation. That's AMORE. I mean STAGFLATION.

Anonymous said...

also, in that article, did you see his high-side estimate for the value of the derivatives

1,600 trillion

that's just too big to understand

and not a single dollar is held in reserve somewhere for when these trigger

I read that Denniger paper yesterday where he went through the private interview with BB that was just released

it is without a doubt evident that banks have no capital at all reserved to cover losses on derivatives and it is so easy to see how that could all just collapse on itself, one could be triggered at any momement and once a few do, they can all go....

but hey, don't forget to buy the dip

- Ben

ps. Given the facts on derivatives, isn't it hilarious that someone might hype, say WFC, because of...I dunno....earnings improvement or P/E ratio....

spoonman said...

Better buy some stock before the weekend. They ain't gettin' any cheaper...ufb.

Helicopter Ben said...

All metrics are meaningless when the faucet is wide open.

I-Man said...

WFC is golden, you cant go wrong, Buffett owns it.

...



PFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT...

AmenRa said...

MUST..CLOSE...GREEN...KEEP...JOHN E...HAPPY...SUCKER

Anonymous said...

foghorn,

you are right, no doubt some people are feeling Stagflation

but I say some because we both know, some aren't.

- Ben

AmenRa said...

I-Man

WFC was early in changing the time it took to write off NPLs to improve earnings.

Anonymous said...

Stagnation/Stagflation
Potato/Potahto
Too many stags running around
not enough does to fuck.

foghorn

Giles Straightarrow said...

In England we call that a SAUSAGE FEST.

Anonymous said...

Foghorn,

no kidding..

and, a degree aside, peep, still, wonder why 'Food Processors' were invented by 'a dude' ..

AAIP

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