AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: I tried another take down move. This one didn't work either.

Bullish short day. Also looks like a hammer but color should be opposite of trend. A lower open might be the tell. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. No test of 0.0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1276.34). QE2infinity.

Bullish long day (so yesterday was 2nd day of a morning star). Midpoint below EMA(10). Back above the 14.6% retrace (77.54). Below all SMA's. Next test may still be the 0.0% at 75.63. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 78.13).

Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below SMA(21). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 18.47). Still out of the "no fear" zone. Currently has a monthly 3LB reversal.

Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). 0.0% retrace holding. Tested and passed the 38.2% retrace (1328.33). Closed above the upper trend line. Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 1319.80). Must have the precious.

Bearish long day (so it completed an evening star). Midpoint above EMA(10). Back below 1.3782 (the .09 fibo). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3609).

Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Held its 38.2% retrace (40.28). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.63).

Bullish short day. Well above the 14.6% retrace at 33.86. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 32.96). If it doesn't stop at 36.00 then...

Bearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Made a new 0.0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 335.44).

Bearish harami day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back below SMA(55). Still hasn't overtaken its 38.2% retrace (12.01). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 12.30). Still above weekly 3LB mid (11.76).

Inverted hammer day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. Way below lower trend line. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 93.79).

Bearish engulfing day (remember it needs confirmation). Back below SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 30.24).


The Bond Report 2.3.11

Today was a very important day, as TLT closed below 90. TNX above 3.50 and TYX at 4.66%, well into our 4.60-4.80% target band. Fixed income sold off across the board as inwestors anticipated a monster number in tomorrow's employment report.

TIPS, long bonds, 5y, munis, IG corporates, mortgages, it was all shit today, as a media focus on inflation washed over the market and the recovery Kool-Aid was drunk by all. In jars.

Corpies: LQD -0.22%; AGG -0.35%; JNK 0.15%; HYG 0.04%
Govies: TLT -0.67%; IEI -0.36%; TIP -0.52%
Munis: IQI -0.50%; MUB -0.11%
Mortgages: MBB -0.18%
Hedgies: TBT 1.62%

We have been patiently waiting for a day (or days) like this. Bond bears massively outnumber bond bulls, and the prevalence of DGDF talk, commodity über-bulls, and US default mongerers among the talking heads suggested to us that we are close to a sentiment extreme.

So we were buying big. We bought TLT, we bought LQD, we bought AGG. Our total FI exposure is now 42% and we can go to 50% or more.

We are also short EEM. The last sell-off was much more extreme in EMs than in SPY, so we prefer to express our bearishness in this way.


Bruce in Tennessee said...

Too long a sacrifice
Can make a stone of the heart.


...What hath Bernanke wrought?

Anonymous said...

for Yield Whores of any denomination..

better article, discussing leverage utilization..


A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

Yes, read those. All very interesting. I own CIM and NLY.

If Rome falls, these will be annihilated. I have them on deep stops.
Until then, we make the 15% divvy. So, Marky, do me a favor..?

If you see any Barbarians at the gates, give me a bell?

Anonymous said...


have you looked at these?

not much 'Premium' in those Premiums, no?


also, w/: "If you see any Barbarians at the gates, give me a bell?"

if their be Barbarians, they'll be Clapper, enough, for Everyone to hear, I'd reckon..

the bohemian said...

fixxy? lol

reciprocal "term of endearment"?

AmenRa said...

I don't even know why I'm looking at futures right now. Probably won't move until 8:25 AM ET.

karen said...

Bruce, I only know that stones will hurl themselves to protect those they love or have loved. Hearts run more deeply than imaginations can fathom.

Anonymous said...

some good stuff, here:


no, not a 'term of endearment', in the sense you're implying..

tho, sounds like it might be time a can of whiskey and a fresh 12 of NattyBoh, down that'a way, no?



AmenRa said...

Wait a minute. Aren't they changing the discouraged workers cut off to five years? The rate might jump a little more than expected.

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