TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Corner 2.4.11

Morning Corner 2.4.11

10 Yr Note (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=down
low= 119.594
rev= 123.578; mid= 121.586

This week is forming a bearish engulfing candle. In an uptrend this would be seen as a reversal. If in a trading range then I'll say the decision on direction has been made. With the 10yr and 30yr yields increasing something will have to happen to get traders to start buying bonds. If not then mortgage rates increase and homes sales are history. There goes what little "recovery" we had.

30 Yr Bond (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=down
low= 120.094
rev= 121.594; mid= 120.875

We are now below the 50% retrace and about to break below SMA(89). The Bernank needs to stop speaking. Every utterance sends the bonds lower. Or is it a subtle way of letting The Bernank know that he does not have things under control.

S&P TMI (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=up
high= 1474.83
rev= 1416.57; mid= 1445.70

This is the S&P Total Market Index. It's made up of the S&P 500 and S&P Completion Index. I think of it as the S&P version of the Wilshire 5k. Last week formed a gravestone doji indicating it did not want to go lower. This week has confirmed the candle. The gravestone doji is usually a reversal candle in a downtrend. Since we were in a small range it acts as the absolute floor for the range. That's until it gets taken out.

The Bernank must really "Believe the Lie"

247 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 1 – 200 of 247 Newer› Newest»

AmenRa said...: Tick tock. The most important NFP ever cometh.

ROR; February 4, 2011 at 8:26 AM
Anonymous said...: THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- JANUARY 2011

The unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 9.0 percent in
January, while nonfarm payroll employment changed little (+36,000),
the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment rose in
manufacturing and in retail trade but was down in construction and in
transportation and warehousing. Employment in most other major
industries changed little over the month.; February 4, 2011 at 8:38 AM
AmenRa said...: 10yr yield now at 3.61% and rising fast.; February 4, 2011 at 8:41 AM
the bohemian said...: I think it was leftback who foretold the miss in employment numbers-

the trouble I have is looking at the dynamics- is it good because QE is assured to continue- is it bad because the economy is not creating jobs-

and what of the effect on the markets?

crazy mixed up world I say . . .; February 4, 2011 at 8:47 AM
Anonymous said...: Houston basically shut down today. I'm in the home office....

Lot of morons here don't know how to drive on a slick road.; February 4, 2011 at 8:58 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Lefty!

Mr. Bond seems to have no friends this morning...just got up..but I still have the 10 at almost 3.6....; February 4, 2011 at 9:08 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Long salt?; February 4, 2011 at 9:13 AM
karen said...: Morning! not seeing much happening..; February 4, 2011 at 9:17 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-04/canada-adds-69-200-jobs-in-january-while-jobless-rate-increased-to-7-8-.html

Canada Adds 69,200 Jobs, Four Times More Than Forecast

"Canadian job creation was more than four times what economists predicted in January, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose as more people sought work."; February 4, 2011 at 9:18 AM
Anonymous said...: Forex & Bonds Last Change Change %
EUR/USD 1.3595 -0.0030 -0.22%
USD/JPY 81.70 +0.08 +0.10%
GBP/USD 1.6085 -0.0049 -0.30%
5-Year Treasury 2.215 +0.056 +2.59%
10-Year Treasury 3.581 +0.04 +1.13%
30-Year Treasury 4.691 +0.029 +0.62%
http://finviz.com/; February 4, 2011 at 9:20 AM
the bohemian said...: bint-

TLT futures have been jumping all over the place from what I can see; February 4, 2011 at 9:21 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/03/usa-fed-food-idINN0327819020110203

Feb 3 (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Thursday said it was "unfair" to blame U.S. monetary policy for pushing up inflationary pressures in emerging market economies.

"It's entirely unfair to attribute excess demand pressures in emerging markets to U.S. monetary policy because emerging markets have all the tools they need to address excess demand in those countries," Bernanke told an audience at the National Press Club in Washington.; February 4, 2011 at 9:23 AM
Anonymous said...: that 9% print has to be folks just throwing in the towel . . . work? What the hell is that?; February 4, 2011 at 9:23 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Canadian population 34M...Wikipedia; February 4, 2011 at 9:26 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Yep, participation rate,,,she is cliff diving..; February 4, 2011 at 9:26 AM
the bohemian said...: "because emerging markets have all the tools they need to address excess demand in those countries"

going back to my econ 101 classes- the way to slow demand is to raise prices!

I thought that was the problem- lol; February 4, 2011 at 9:27 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Well, I see another article today about how Bernanke sees no inflation on the horizon, but I do remember Arthur Burns and "stagflation" of the Jimmy Carter era. That was when I was starting out and buying Kruggerands with whatever little extra money we had...

When Volcker came in and massively raised rates, my wife waited in line for an hour, and they finally closed the doors of our bank, said they couldn't take IN any more money....

Can commodity inflation cause stagflation...if there are no wage pressures?

...time for more coffee..; February 4, 2011 at 9:34 AM
karen said...: Bernanke is too learned to understand reality.; February 4, 2011 at 9:35 AM
I-Man said...: Bernanke is...

An economist.

But he also moonlights as Doctor Frankenstein.; February 4, 2011 at 9:39 AM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: ROFR. The Mighty American Jobs Machine.

Another triumph for trickle down economics.

A tremendous amount of Treasury shorts going into today's numbers. I imagine we will see a lot of those trades closed going into the weekend. We very much doubt that these delicious yields will last the day. Get 'em while they're hot.

With the exposure to bonds that we are building, we probably will have to get back into hedging around auctions, however. So it will be back to the bond reports you were reading last Spring.

I wonder what Giles will be up to this afternoon?; February 4, 2011 at 9:41 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703652104576122182859979912.html?mod=rss_whats_news_us

Bernanke Denies That Fed Is Stoking Inflation; February 4, 2011 at 9:43 AM
karen said...: this might be the buy opportunity in TLT. looking ahead to no momo monday.; February 4, 2011 at 9:45 AM
Nefarious B.I.D. said...: you see folks, it's futile

I have a bid under assets at all times, no matter the data, no matter reality

I am the Nefarious B.I.D.; February 4, 2011 at 9:47 AM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Interesting CB perspective from Europe:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-04/ecb-s-nowotny-lets-cat-out-of-bag-with-2012-inflation-forecast-of-1-8-.html; February 4, 2011 at 9:50 AM
Anonymous said...: I think we are due for the EM waterfall.

Come on, Voldemort. Do your thing.

Has anyone looked at the power utilization in China? GDP has been goosed by hot money and new math.; February 4, 2011 at 9:52 AM
I-Man said...: Didnt know you were partial to the Umphree's, Ra.

I'm pretty tight with one of those guys brothers.

Got a lot of friends from South Bend.; February 4, 2011 at 9:56 AM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Have to go to a meeting.

Don't let Giles get too frisky with the suction device, eh?; February 4, 2011 at 9:58 AM
Anonymous said...: Has anyone seen U-6?

No doubt Mish will dissect this one in due course.

4.70% on the long bond. Gary Shilling must be getting excited.; February 4, 2011 at 9:59 AM
karen said...: lulu is the new nflx; February 4, 2011 at 10:01 AM
AmenRa said...: MSM is going out of their way to discredit this months NFP report.

ROR; February 4, 2011 at 10:03 AM
karen said...: tbt just exceeded the dec high..

let's see how many jump on this now..; February 4, 2011 at 10:04 AM
AmenRa said...: Odds on The Bernank trying to talk down yields today?; February 4, 2011 at 10:07 AM
the bohemian said...: "As Jim Rogers puts it, “God knows how high the price of agriculture is going to go, so that's where I'm putting more of my money now than in other things… I think I'm going to make more money in agriculture than I make in precious metals."

hasn't he been saying that for years?; February 4, 2011 at 10:07 AM
the bohemian said...: tlt getting beat up; February 4, 2011 at 10:12 AM
the bohemian said...: maybe . . .assuming a sell off in equities based on the anemic reality that is the economy-

this might be a good entry point on TLT; February 4, 2011 at 10:18 AM
Anonymous said...: "Can commodity inflation cause stagflation...if there are no wage pressures?"

yes, of course..

just because peep can't afford 'high prices' doesn't, necessarily, bring them down..

sometimes, it's called 'Lower standard of living'..

for EZ reference, look South (of the Rio Grande)..

AAIP; February 4, 2011 at 10:20 AM
the bohemian said...: am I all alone here?

HELLO, HELLO-

I hear an echo . . .; February 4, 2011 at 10:22 AM
Anonymous said...: 89.11 -0.61 (0.68%) 10:20AM EST
Day's Range: 89.03 - 89.65

TLT has held above 89, so far..

feels like the d-side has been done..

ibid.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TLT&ql=1; February 4, 2011 at 10:22 AM
Anonymous said...: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=TLT+Options

selling the 89p buying the 89c, looks decent

ibid.; February 4, 2011 at 10:24 AM
karen said...: JJC is at a new high today.. what in the heck does this mean?; February 4, 2011 at 10:36 AM
I-Man said...: Just look at that copper chart in the weekly timeframe...

Does that look like a chart that wants to break down?

Looks like 5 is in the bag, and maybe even 5 and a half.; February 4, 2011 at 10:38 AM
AmenRa said...: Copper was in a range the last few weeks and now has broken out to the upside. Still doesn't mean the economy is improving. :-); February 4, 2011 at 10:47 AM
the bohemian said...: I just ordered a copper smelt on ebay-

hoffer- thx for the feedback; February 4, 2011 at 10:53 AM
karen said...: copper or JJC is as surreal as lulu

in any case.. i think they go the way of UGA today.; February 4, 2011 at 10:53 AM
Anonymous said...: Day's Range: 88.89 - 89.65
89.08 -0.64 (-0.71%) 10:58AM EST

TLT

boh',

de nada~; February 4, 2011 at 11:00 AM
the bohemian said...: I-Man-

because I am curious- what's the typical number of trades you make in a day?; February 4, 2011 at 11:00 AM
Andy T said...: Very constructive looking move in the DXY last few days. Maybe an inverted H&S going to form; February 4, 2011 at 11:03 AM
karen said...: Record lows in the Imperial Valley

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/45332/another-freeze-for-the-imperia.asp

Thousands of acres of prime farmland have transformed the desert into one of the most productive farming regions in California with an annual crop production of over $1 billion. Agriculture is the largest industry in the Imperial Valley and accounts for 48% of all employment.; February 4, 2011 at 11:09 AM
I-Man said...: If I'm trading well, less than 10.

My best day ever I made 3 trades.

Really depends on what I have to work with, if the trend is choppy, like today, you can rack them up pretty quick.

I'm already at 7, and havent done much.

Any more than 15 and I feel like a real schmuck.; February 4, 2011 at 11:12 AM
I-Man said...: Once in awhile, I dont make a single one.

Especially the days I skip to go fishing.; February 4, 2011 at 11:14 AM
cv said...: Holy TLT Batman!; February 4, 2011 at 11:16 AM
karen said...: http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/peter-peterson-is-%22deeply-concerned-about-the-american-dream%22-here's-why-535894.html; February 4, 2011 at 11:17 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Lefty!

I hope you are not in one of those falling knife kind of thingys with your bond investments yesterday....

Mr. Bond is looking very lonely...will he find someone who likes him? Stay tuned..; February 4, 2011 at 11:18 AM
the bohemian said...: Any more than 15 and I feel like a real schmuck.

funny

so what do you do- look at 1 minute charts to see if they turn red or green indicating a possible trend change?

what makes you pull the trigger on a short term trade?; February 4, 2011 at 11:18 AM
I-Man said...: Of course Ahab, with wider stops, one could trade a lot less...

I play with tighter stops than most people, but if I'm on point, my entries are way better than most peoples.; February 4, 2011 at 11:20 AM
CV said...: Just look at that copper chart in the weekly timeframe...

Does that look like a chart that wants to break down?

Looks like 5 is in the bag, and maybe even 5 and a half.

Nickles bitchez!

CV's "collection" is up to 67,000 and counting (in 5 gallon paint buckets at the moment)...

Just a hobby :-)

Off to the store now to buy a case of beer for the SuperBowl & um, oh yeah... ask for the change in nickel rolls...; February 4, 2011 at 11:21 AM
CV said...: Quick...

Whooda ya'll like in the Superbowl?

CV will have a fairly extensive post up tomorrow morning breaking down many of the nuances of the match-up... (most of which you won't hear from the "Merril Hoges" & "Jaws" of the world (who only know how to talk about FACTOR BACKS, & "seeing the field clearly" - ROR; February 4, 2011 at 11:23 AM
I-Man said...: I get long on pullbacks if the trend is up, and I sell rips if the trend is down.

Basically, if the 55sma is pointing up on the 1/5/15 min chart, I am going to be long, and vice versa.

I tend to trade only around pivot levels, unless I am just banking profits in the middle of a move.

For me, the cardinal sin is letting a 10 tick gain, ie: $50 per contract, turning into no gain, or worse, a loss.

Thus, I tend to bank profits alot in the middle of a move.

The more confident I get tho, the more I will trust my targets, and sit back through retracements.

It also helps to flatten your first few trades, so you have some cheese to work with to shoot for a few "runners"... a runner is any trade where you make more than 25 ticks. For the YM, dowmini, 1 tick is $5 per contract.; February 4, 2011 at 11:24 AM
the bohemian said...: nominal value-

67,000 X .05 = $3350; February 4, 2011 at 11:24 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-muni-yields-20110204,0,5297973.story

Municipal bond yields rise as market rally stalls

..No no no no no....imprecise...

Municipal bond yields rise AND market rally stalls

....better...; February 4, 2011 at 11:27 AM
CV said...: Quick Trivia Question (not really "trivia" - but whatever)...

Who will be the MOST IMPORTANT PERSON ON THE FIELD SUNDAY?

Don't be afraid to answer that... there's no "pat" answer... I'm more curious to hear your nominations (so I encourage everyone to chime in even if you don't think you know what you're talking about and are going purely on heresay)...

Which ESPECIALLY means that both you KAREN, and LB, who don't often talk about football, NEED to toss out an answer, ANY ANSWER, to that question...

That's for a reason... PUBLIC PERCEPTION MATTERS in a case like this (and I'm interested to know what the PUBLIC "vibe" is)... It's a science experiment (and ought to be quite revealing)...; February 4, 2011 at 11:28 AM
I-Man said...: My boss also happens to be a really talented trader, who is also really talented at writing software code...

So his programs help me on entries, but I tend to use them as a compliment to my chart work.

Most of our guys just trade what the programs say, but I'm too much of an arrogant bitch to do that.

I'd rather be wrong on a trade because my work was wrong, than be wrong because a machine told me to.; February 4, 2011 at 11:31 AM
CV said...: @boh

MELT Value (as of today) = $4,830

http://www.coinflation.com/coins/1946-2007-Jefferson-Nickel-Value.html#meltvalue; February 4, 2011 at 11:32 AM
the bohemian said...: Rothlisberg, Polamalu, Rodgers or Matthews; February 4, 2011 at 11:32 AM
I-Man said...: Packers win in a close game.

Aaron Rodgers, MVP.

Starks and the OL will be the reason the Packers win.

But I think Clay will be scaring Ben all game, and could make for some gunslinging on Ben's part, which could lead to a few picks and be the deciding factor in the game.

I think the Packers OL will handle the Steelers D, and Aaron dont throw picks like Sancheese.; February 4, 2011 at 11:33 AM
CV said...: I wonder what the "melt value" of my $100 bills is?; February 4, 2011 at 11:34 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: My hope is that the Packers win...I will be cheering for GB.

My head tells me the Steelers defense will decide and win the game.; February 4, 2011 at 11:35 AM
the bohemian said...: I-man @ 11:24-

I may need to put that in the google translator:-)!; February 4, 2011 at 11:35 AM
CV said...: @I-Man

That's actually a pretty saavy "dime" analysis...

(or 2 nickles, as the case may be)...

Bravo!; February 4, 2011 at 11:35 AM
I-Man said...: Depends on the amount of yay residue on them.; February 4, 2011 at 11:35 AM
CV said...: @boh

I-Man speaks "trade-bonics" these days (apart from rasta)...

he's tri-lingual... :-); February 4, 2011 at 11:36 AM
CV said...: @I-Man (11:35)

ROR! You're a funny guy today! :-); February 4, 2011 at 11:37 AM
I-Man said...: Thx CV, I did that one on my own.

Not doing FF this year has kept me from reading any football analysis.

Unless it was reading about the Skins woes, but that got old about the time they started giving Grossman reps.; February 4, 2011 at 11:37 AM
I-Man said...: I'm trying to distract myself from the long position I have on.

Gonna trust the target on this one and not try to finesse it too much.; February 4, 2011 at 11:38 AM
CV said...: @I-Man

As for "melt value" on hundos...

Here's a dude that will have Bernanke by the balls when he needs to print up the next batch...

Forget "toner ink"... I got my $$ on this dude...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704680604576110423777349298.html; February 4, 2011 at 11:41 AM
CV said...: end of that article is the best...

"I told them not to cook or smoke in those cotton-filled rooms," he said.

ROR - good advice!; February 4, 2011 at 11:45 AM
Anonymous said...: uhhhh, 67,000 nickels weights about 738 pounds, have fun lugging that to the smelter...; February 4, 2011 at 11:47 AM
I-Man said...: Dude...

Hasnt that guy heard of cotton futures???

Beats the hell out of filling your living room with the stuff.

Cotton sucks anyway, long Hemp!; February 4, 2011 at 11:47 AM
I-Man said...: I'm pretty sure that cotton takes more water and fertilizer to pull off a nice crop than any other cash crop on earth.

Just stupid.; February 4, 2011 at 11:49 AM
Anonymous said...: "Who will be the MOST IMPORTANT PERSON ON THE FIELD SUNDAY?"

Walt Anderson; February 4, 2011 at 11:51 AM
CV said...: @karen

JJC is at a new high today.. what in the heck does this mean?

Come on... Both YOU & I KNOW WHY Cu is up this past year... It all started on this day last year...

http://lh6.ggpht.com/_0Y343jGi4Xs/TJHl5bK3uHI/AAAAAAAAAkY/6TRDRSfwrJ8/AV-demi-moore-atelier-versace-oscar-2010_thumb%5B2%5D.jpg?imgmax=800

You & I were the first to "spot" it...; February 4, 2011 at 11:51 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Rice?; February 4, 2011 at 11:52 AM
karen said...: Keith McCullough
Covering my short position in UST Bonds here as theyve been pounded by inflation and debt ceiling concerns this wk. Will re-short higher; February 4, 2011 at 11:52 AM
Andy T said...: I think the real story behind the Packers has been the improved Defense last several weeks...

I think they need either Clay Matthews or Charles Woodson to go into "Beast Mode"...

They can't let Roethlisberger scramble around....

I've been impressed with the Packer D...thus, I like them in a blowout.; February 4, 2011 at 11:53 AM
CV said...: @ANON (11:51)

OMG!!!!!

I swear... Friggin OMG... That's E-X-A-C-T-L-Y what CV was thinking...

Never in a million years did I expect to see someone from this forum toss that out...

Un-be-effing-leivable!

That IS the correct answer people! Interview closed...; February 4, 2011 at 11:54 AM
I-Man said...: I had no idea who the hell that was...

Pretty sure Ed Hercules is the only nfl ref I know by name.; February 4, 2011 at 11:55 AM
CV said...: Now... However... I still DO entertain the "player personnel" nominations (and am still curious to hear about those)...; February 4, 2011 at 11:56 AM
I-Man said...: Re: tape

It would be cool if it could just run over the NY lunch, and then I could call it a day at 11am.

TJIF.; February 4, 2011 at 11:56 AM
Andy T said...: Packers 31 - Steelers 17; February 4, 2011 at 11:56 AM
CV said...: "Ed Hercules" - ROR

I-Man... did you take some "funny pills" last night?; February 4, 2011 at 11:56 AM
I-Man said...: I'm funnier in the morning. Always have been, not sure why.; February 4, 2011 at 11:57 AM
the bohemian said...: CV-

see my 11:32 picks

gotta roll; February 4, 2011 at 11:58 AM
I-Man said...: I was thinking like 33-30, Packers or something like that as far as score.

Pretty sure this one will come down to a field goal.; February 4, 2011 at 11:59 AM
CV said...: @Andy

31-17?... Still going with that "prop bet" I see...

Not bad... You remember, that was one of the first things I tossed out there two weeks ago...

I'll say, I've softened a bit on that, but MAY, just MAY come back to it...

A lot of ideas have bubbled to the surface in the past two weeks (thoughts about the game)...

Let's put it this way though... The fact that WALT ANDERSON "is", what I think, maybe the MIPOTF... Then it takes DOWN my previous call of going after a prop bet like that...

If you know what I mean (which I know you do)...; February 4, 2011 at 12:00 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-501465_162-20030622-501465.html?tag=cbsnewsTwoColLowerPromoArea;morenews

Bombay Court: Astrology is a Science

...Yes, I know, it is 2011, and these are educated jurists. It makes you realize the dichotomy of American soldiers in among tribesmen in Afghanistan, and how bringing western ideas to some parts of the world is a real load. Yet the Scopes trial was held not so very far from BinT in the 20's...

..Hang in there Darwin...; February 4, 2011 at 12:04 PM
CV said...: @I-Man

"I'm pretty sure that cotton takes more water and fertilizer to pull off a nice crop than any other cash crop on earth"

---

Corn is the worst (but in the following sense), because "WORST" is a relative distinction...

Consider:

- fertility of soil needed
- water needed
- fertilizer needed (similar to #1, but different)
- cost of planting & harvesting machines (think mostly diesel fuel, but also the rigs themselves and stages of refinement)
- market price ("unsubsidized" - which is the only way to think about it).; February 4, 2011 at 12:06 PM
I-Man said...: @ AT

Did you happen to see that link I posted yesterday afternoon about that guy's Gas trade?

Its the post from Wednesday on this link:

http://iamafuturestrader.blogspot.com/

On unleaded:

"The POIV indicator is showing a huge amount of divergence, a classic 3 lower peaks formation with three higher highs. This is exceptionally rare, I do not recall the last time I saw this. I know there is an over abundance of bullishness on the energy complex, yet this tells us the professionals are not accumulating longs at all. This is a market to watch for a sell signal for a large move down. it may well be that the next short term signal is a buy I do not know. However, this is a market speaking very loudly here and it is time to be on guard for a move that surprises the public here."

Thoughts?

I wasnt aware the energy complex was "over abundantly bullish"? Does that sound right to you?; February 4, 2011 at 12:06 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: B in T is certainly enjoying the bond sell-off, or is it the LB-baiting opportunity that is so delightful?

TLT close to 89 and to its support levels from last January and April, but what is it exactly that is driving this? Perhaps it was the 9.0% headline number for U-3, or the federal debt ceiling pantomime.

Surely not the limp NFP number.

Another boots-filling day in fixed income over here.

EEM is agreeably weak today.; February 4, 2011 at 12:12 PM
CV said...: @Andy T

I'm pretty sure you can count on Clay Matthews to ALWAYS be in "beast mode"...

Woodson is, IMO, one of the best combination cerebral & physical talent athletes in the league (and I'd put him in the ALL TIME list on that)...

With the likes of contemporary players such as (and I'm not going by POSITION here, just general defense):

- Ed Reed
- Troy Polamalu
- Ray Lewis
- Champ Bailey
- I should say Darelle Revis, but he just needs TIME to go with the above.

ALL TIME

- Ronnie Lott
- Kenny Easley (see Mutt? - a SEAHAWK made it)
- Lester Hayes
- Jack Tatum
- Paul Krause
- Deion Sanders
- Herb Adderly
- Darrell Green
- "Night Train" Lane
- Mel Blount
- Mike Haynes
- Lem Barney; February 4, 2011 at 12:19 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: It will be interesting to see if and how far yields come in by the close. This is really the capitulation phase that we have been waiting for.

Yield watch has TLT 4.40%, LQD 4.91%, JNK 8.98%
NAZ offers 0,63% and EEM 1.39%

Things that make you go... hmmm

MBB down and so the REITs are all down a bit today. The next turn in the bond market will lift these stocks substantially later in the year.

Sometimes I do feel lonely with my Japanese playbook. The Myth of American Exceptionalism is strong, yet eventually misguided.; February 4, 2011 at 12:21 PM
Anonymous said...: just did a back-of-the-envelope calculation which shows that the cost of melting those nickels shouldn't nearly be as much as I originally thought it might.....; February 4, 2011 at 12:23 PM
CV said...: @Anon (12:23)

CV is always all about "versatility" & "flexibility"...

The coins, in a pinch, could always be used to swag some bullets...

http://www.corbins.com/intro.htm; February 4, 2011 at 12:27 PM
CV said...: I shoukld say "casings"...; February 4, 2011 at 12:27 PM
CV said...: and I should learn how to type as well...; February 4, 2011 at 12:27 PM
CV said...: But I suppose if one were VERY RESOURCEFUL... One could do some "origami" on a $100 bill and fold it into a paper airplane and try to poke someones eye out with it...; February 4, 2011 at 12:29 PM
Colin said...: Here at Knife Catcher Capital, you can be sure we are filling our boots alongside LB. This is just too juicy to pass up, especially in the face of the market action today. Color me puzzled and full of TBT shorts.; February 4, 2011 at 12:34 PM
AmenRa said...: Added another chart. Anyone ever heard of it?; February 4, 2011 at 12:35 PM
I-Man said...: "Myth of American Exceptionalism"

LB,

You need more:

Camo clothing.
Light beer.
Smell of wild game on your hands.
Firearms.
Power tools.
Jeans under $30.

Those things and a shotgun and a 4WD will cure you of your lack of belief.

You need to get out of the babylonian city.; February 4, 2011 at 12:35 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Colin

Speaking as a confirmed Yield Whore, our hands will be full of knives today and Monday if necessary, all the way into next week's auctions.

TLT calls, bitchez...; February 4, 2011 at 12:37 PM
CV said...: @Colin

"Knife Catcher Capital" - ROR... Looks like I-Man doesn't have the FRANCHIZE on funny today... :-)

Man those TLT longs TBT shorts look tantalizing!; February 4, 2011 at 12:37 PM
karen said...: http://www.forexlive.com/164834/all/if-this-correlation-ever-recouples; February 4, 2011 at 12:37 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: The I-

We love this country as if it were our own.
But the US of B is not immune to economic reality, or gravity.; February 4, 2011 at 12:38 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Lefty,

I very much enjoy watching you and all the other pro players. And today, at home, I got popcorn...

I-Man...fascinating...

The Peter Peterson piece than Karen posted earlier is good, but Peterson isn't in congress and wasn't a community organizer at some time in his life. I don't foresee a good outcome...(still).; February 4, 2011 at 12:38 PM
CV said...: @AFIA2BNL

"TLT calls" (coming from your keyboard to my ears)... Is like listening to Beethoven...; February 4, 2011 at 12:39 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: By the way, The King's Speech is excellent. Saw it last night.; February 4, 2011 at 12:40 PM
I-Man said...: Had a feeling you'd appreciate that, Bruce.; February 4, 2011 at 12:40 PM
Mr Bond said...: CV

"Too many notes, Mozart..."; February 4, 2011 at 12:41 PM
CV said...: @AFIA2BNL

"TLT calls, bitchez..."

---

We've discovered a NEW way to express that...

"TLT allskay itchez-bay"; February 4, 2011 at 12:41 PM
CV said...: @Bruce (12.40)

+1 (it's going to take home some hardware at the end of the month); February 4, 2011 at 12:42 PM
Anonymous said...: Karen

What if we don't close green today? Anything special?; February 4, 2011 at 12:42 PM
Mr Bond said...: The 7s are at 3.03%. Tasty.; February 4, 2011 at 12:44 PM
I-Man said...: Karen, how you liking that DTO today?

With a little luck, crude oil will be at $75 before ya know it.

Unless something nasty goes down in the Desert... but gaps are meant to be filled.; February 4, 2011 at 12:44 PM
CV said...: Re: Pete Peterson

Overall - and I don't know s*** from shinola about him, he SEEMS to be a pretty good guy based on my IMPRESSION of him...

Maybe sort of a misplaced DON QUIXOTE type of fellow in this day and age...; February 4, 2011 at 12:45 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: I wonder if Jeff Gundlach is filling his boots today?; February 4, 2011 at 12:45 PM
Gary Shilling said...: My boots are so full that I have bonds stuffed down my argyles.; February 4, 2011 at 12:46 PM
I-Man said...: What did yall think of "Winter Bones"?

A buddy of mine recommended that and True Grit, we need to see some new movies around Dread Farms.

Although, Axe Men is keeping us fairly entertained.; February 4, 2011 at 12:46 PM
karen said...: Mr Top Step
Bloomberg ElBaradei denies he made comment that will not seek presidency. wud b ready to lead #egypt if asked by people.head line whipsaw $$; February 4, 2011 at 12:47 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Glad we have not been over-exposed at the short end. Talk about reward-free risk....

SHY 1.01%, IEI 2.12%

Even that might look good once Mr Market steps off the cliff.
Wile E Coyote moment not far away.; February 4, 2011 at 12:48 PM
CV said...: @I-Man

"Winter Bones" IS worth seeing... So far, I'm predicting one (just one) statuette...

AXE MEN... lol... I like that A LOT better than "Gold Rush" (whic is a wannabe AXE MEN), and not even as good as The Deadliest Catch or Ice Road Truckers...; February 4, 2011 at 12:50 PM
CV said...: BTW...

Kinda on the subject of "Winter Bones"... I remember about a year and a half ago someone on this or another blog talking about THE ROAD...

I finally saw it about a month ago and thought it was stupid as shit...

About the most UNREALISTIC portrayal of an armageddon sequence that I could possibly imagine...; February 4, 2011 at 12:53 PM
I-Man said...: You would love some of the dudes I fish with...

Yeah, those Gold Rush guys are hopeless, word around here is that their total take last summer was $20K.

I'm sure their best score was the History Channel contract.

I cant get over how they were raping that streambed with the trackhoe... and shooting the bear was ridiculous. The baited the thing with graham crackers and then shot it when it came in their camp.

Bunch of yahoos. I'm sure the locals up there got laugh after laugh... if they didnt want to kick their ass.; February 4, 2011 at 12:54 PM
CV said...: @I-Man

lol; February 4, 2011 at 12:55 PM
CV said...: @I-Man

You're right... They might as effing well cast Paris Hilton & Kim Kardashian to go out there and mine for some gold (and make sure they bring their lap dogs)...

At least THEN you might have a show worth watching...; February 4, 2011 at 12:57 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/

"The best news was the decline in the unemployment rate to 9.0% from 9.4% in December. However this was partially because the participation rate declined to 64.2% - a new cycle low, and the lowest level since the early '80s."

...Our boy, CR. So yes, the Canadians rate goes up and they create 4x the number of expected jobs and more people are looking for work, while our participation rate goes down.

...Maybe after the Super Bowl?; February 4, 2011 at 12:59 PM
CV said...: Not useful, but interesting...

http://lifeinc.todayshow.com/_news/2011/02/04/5983297-good-graph-friday-why-california-is-italy?gt1=43001; February 4, 2011 at 1:01 PM
CV said...: Mississippi=Bangladesh; February 4, 2011 at 1:01 PM
Anonymous said...: California IS Italy.

Good food, wine, sunshine, beautiful women, dudes in sunglasses.
Budget deficits. Fantasy economics.; February 4, 2011 at 1:06 PM
CV said...: Of course what's USEFUL for you all to know is that the Fast Money traders tell you to buy stock in "Men's Warehouse"... because... drumroll... Most of the suits they sell are made from polyester (not cotton), so they aren't susceptible to INPUT COST shocks...

Margins bitchez!

(argins-mey itchez-bay); February 4, 2011 at 1:08 PM
CV said...: @Anon

Don't forget "The Governator" (playing the part of Silvio Berlusconi); February 4, 2011 at 1:10 PM
CV said...: Hey - the board just turned green...

Did "Friday prayers" just end in Cairo or something?; February 4, 2011 at 1:12 PM
18 said...: Can't put my finger on it but looks like we're in for a big move up or down.

1332
...1323
1314
....1305
1296
...1287
1278

18's daily and hourly are bullish now, but not by much.; February 4, 2011 at 1:13 PM
Anonymous said...: The generational chasm is yawning.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/The-Youth-Unemployment-bizwk-1398779915.html;_ylt=AvS60JSJQpA8yaMvab6jO9e7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTFhMXRvNm45BHBvcwMyBHNlYwNzcGVjaWFsRmVhdHVyZXMEc2xrA3RoZXlvdXRodW5lbQ--?x=0; February 4, 2011 at 1:17 PM
CV said...: @18

"we're in for a big move up or down"

---

China has, in practice, been shut down all week because of the New Year (the WESTERN equivalent to the week between x-Mas & New Years)...

So YES... Monday ought to bring about a strong move... In some direction...

until then...

UPER-say OWL-bay ITCHEZ-bay; February 4, 2011 at 1:18 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: 30yr mortgages 4.89%.
You know they want to hold the line at 5.00%.

Otherwise we are on the express train to Price Discovery.; February 4, 2011 at 1:20 PM
karen said...: LB, Bill doesn't agree with you !

On #BloombergTV, PIMCO's Bill Gross Says Investors Should Focus on Emerging Markets http://ow.ly/3QurK; February 4, 2011 at 1:22 PM
Man on the Arab Street said...: We will suspend our revolution to watch your Bowl of Soup.

On Monday we will resume Mubarak Packers v Looters and Steelers.; February 4, 2011 at 1:23 PM
CV said...: Not much chatter on this blog about whether MH will end up getting a subpoena...

nor "thoughts" on that...

kinda surprising; February 4, 2011 at 1:24 PM
Anonymous said...: EM bonds would be good for anyone who can hedge their currency. Brazilians are yielding 12%, for example. In a slowdown you also get the appreciation of the bond. But you have to think about FX too.; February 4, 2011 at 1:25 PM
CV said...: @Man on the Arab Street

Here in the USSA... We watch "the LOOTERS" from "HOOTERS" (with a side of buffalo wings)...; February 4, 2011 at 1:25 PM
18 said...: SPX just doesn't wanna go any higher... someone give it a push!; February 4, 2011 at 1:26 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/02/04/live-from-new-york-its-jobs-friday-2/

504,000 people quit looking for jobs in January.

...Maybe they all moved to China?; February 4, 2011 at 1:26 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: I am sure Gross doesn't mean EM equities.

People can't have it both ways on emerging markets. If the US is firm, then Bucky rallies and EM equity unwind will result. If the US growth is weak, then DGDF, but also US equities would be overvalued and Ts would be bought.; February 4, 2011 at 1:28 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: That 10 year is looking pretty stubborn today, Lefty...

..filled your shorts yet?; February 4, 2011 at 1:29 PM
Anonymous said...: Regarding copper, don't forget pre-1983 pennies, bitchez. Also, GB has looked awfully impressive in the playoffs against 3 really horseshit teams. But, we'll see who the league wants to win on Sunday I guess.; February 4, 2011 at 1:29 PM
CV said...: @Bruce (1:26)

I heard it was the other way around...

To my knowledge it was that 504,000 JOBS quit looking for PEOPLE...; February 4, 2011 at 1:30 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: ....errands...back tonight...

...While I am gone, I nominate Karen as offical Leftback irritator...

...even if he likes it..; February 4, 2011 at 1:32 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: CV,

Maybe they moved to Canada??; February 4, 2011 at 1:33 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Here is the screen shot of the TYX for the last year or so. Notice the 4.7% area and the little peak at 4.80%. Not too many people filled their boots up there, but we did. Remember the long bond is key to mortgage rates.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/30%20Year.jpg

Bruce, we try to avoid the 10y, but even we think the 7-10y yield looks appealing here.; February 4, 2011 at 1:33 PM
Anonymous said...: Both 10s30s and 2s30s are stretched to the max here. Note that 2s are beginning to price in a rate hike, to 0.75-1% Fed funds this year.

Does anyone REALLY believe that will happen?; February 4, 2011 at 1:35 PM
Anonymous said...: I nominate Karen as offical Leftback irritator...

Nobody does it like you, B in T.; February 4, 2011 at 1:36 PM
CV said...: @Anon

pre-1983 pennies is a very good point...

But the reason I go with NICKLES is that the makeup hasn't changed since 1946... no sorting...

I sift thru pennies, but find, on the average, only about 1 in 14 "pre-1983"... It's still worthwhile if you can spare the time, but NOTHING is easier than going to the bank, handing them a $10 bill... and getting 5 $2 rolls of nickles...

You just made 40% untaxable PURE PROFIT...

And if copper prices collapse... You didn't pay spot prices for the copper or nickel...

I'm still amazed that OBAMA hasn't come out with a decree that nickles should be made of ZINC... But I guess he's too busy playing golf and filling out his NCAA brackets...

Re: GB

impressive in the playoffs against 3 really horseshit teams...

That "angle" is going to be part of my SUPER BOWL thread tomorrow... (but it will be applied to the STEELERS & Big Ben as well)...

Stay tuned...; February 4, 2011 at 1:38 PM
Anonymous said...: VIX 16 again...

UFB.; February 4, 2011 at 1:44 PM
I-Man said...: Kinda feeling an upside rampage here...; February 4, 2011 at 1:48 PM
Anonymous said...: CV-
Good points all. I find about 1 in 5 pennies to be pre-83. But yeah, sifting thru them is a pain. I have been collecting nickels for a couple months now, thanks to your inspiration. If this inflation thing takes hold, I guarantee they will change the composition of nickels to zinc soon enough.

My comment about GB was also a hat tip to your boyz (the Ravens), who really should have beaten the Steelers.; February 4, 2011 at 1:55 PM
CV said...: @Anon

You do better (ratio) than I (with the pennies)...

It may have something to do with what part of the country one is in...

Perhaps being in the Mid-Atlantic corrodor (DC-Philly-NY-Boston), the circulation tends towards fresher mints...

That's just a speculation... I have no hard data to substantiate that claim...; February 4, 2011 at 2:00 PM
AmenRa said...: Dual stage snow blower recommendations?

***No, that doesn't mean a line of Wall Streeters.; February 4, 2011 at 2:02 PM
I-Man said...: Ya momma was a snowblower...; February 4, 2011 at 2:07 PM
Mohamed El-Erian said...: Let's say we experience a less than robust global recovery..... what we at PIMCO have referred to as a New Normal...

Bill would like to fill his boots with these. You make the coupon, and if rates fell in a slowdown, the appreciation might be spectacular. As for the currency risk, they can just short the piss out of the peso and the real. Piece of cake.

Mexico 10-year 104.27 7.46
Brazil 10-year 856.75 12.85; February 4, 2011 at 2:09 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: F*ck this. I need some pizza.

Colin, any hands left, or are you catching knives with your feet?; February 4, 2011 at 2:10 PM
Colin said...: Had to run to the store to buy more boots to fill. Probably will be loading them up this afternoon and Monday and then sitting tight for the crunch.; February 4, 2011 at 2:17 PM
I-Man said...: The suspense...; February 4, 2011 at 2:25 PM
CV said...: @Amen (2:02)

This is a little "indirect" (with regards to your question)... But here's my thought process (for assembly)...

- I trust Briggs & Stratton engines
- I'm a "OVER 5HP" kinda guy
- Minumal 24" deck width

Of course, you have to consider whether your AREA is frequent with big snows, what the probability is, & what type...

I end up just SHOVELING BY HAND the powdery stuff that's under 2 inches...

But a HOSS like above will handle wetter snows up to 3 feet and blow it into your friggin NEIGHBORS NEIGHBORS yard...

So it basically depends on how much you like your neighbors... How much you want to piss them off... AND/OR, if you lose all your money trading with BERNANKE BUCKS, how much meat & potatoes you could put on your table opening up a SNOW REMOVAL operation...

Though for that "last" notion, I think I'd go with a BOBCAT to save your back...; February 4, 2011 at 2:27 PM
I-Man said...: Does Shanghai reopen on Monday?; February 4, 2011 at 2:33 PM
CV said...: Oh...

and get an ELECTRIC starter to save yourself some pain in the ass...

It's different with snowblowers & lawnmowers...

A snoblower you may only use once or twice a year (in cold weather)... Sometimes a bitch to start if you're not staying behind it...

Lawnmowers... once the season starts, get yanked on once a week, so the STARTING operation isn't so unpredictable (and it happens in warmer weather)...

There's no more pain in the ass than trying to yank a cord on a snowblower in cold weather...; February 4, 2011 at 2:34 PM
CV said...: @I-Man

I think so...; February 4, 2011 at 2:34 PM
Jennifer said...: Ditto on the electric starter advice -- it is the best thing ever.; February 4, 2011 at 2:36 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: The I-Man,

How big are China's balls?

I wonder if they will try to tough it out, go along with the DGDF and the Death of Treasuries and risk rice going vertical? Or will they announce more tightening measures, increase reserve requirements, announce a rate hike, or allow the RMB to rise against BUCKY?

Poor BUCKY. He has been stomped on by the WIZARD.; February 4, 2011 at 2:38 PM
karen said...: http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/11/02/836037/oil-prices-could-hit-125-to-150-a-barrel-in-2011-heres-how-you

Oil Prices could hit $125 to $150 a barrel in 2011, here's how you can profit!

that article is so so so 2008; February 4, 2011 at 2:38 PM
CV said...: @Jennifer

I kno right? :-); February 4, 2011 at 2:39 PM
CV said...: @karen (2:38)

I kno right? again... (so 2008)

Funny thing is tho... They may be right... Hope not!; February 4, 2011 at 2:41 PM
CV said...: PLEASE though...

RUN (don't walk)... the OTHER WAY on any "crude" calls that CV EVER makes...

I'm the worst oil price predictor since the dinosaurs died off and supplied us with this wonderful elisir - ROR; February 4, 2011 at 2:43 PM
I-Man said...: China will do nothing. Yet...; February 4, 2011 at 2:43 PM
Jennifer said...: CV -- if there is room on your pizza menu -- I highly recommend this recipe for Sweet Bacon and Pear pizza:

http://www.bhg.com/recipe/pizza/sweet-bacon-and-pear-pizza/

And that's the end of today's domestic commentary.; February 4, 2011 at 2:45 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Oil Prices could hit $125 to $150 a barrel in 2011, here's how you can profit!

that article is so so so 2008

Agreed, Karen. As soon as we get even a smidgen of warm weather, the crude trade is ovah.; February 4, 2011 at 2:45 PM
CV said...: I'm like PRECHTER... (on that)

$10 oil itchez-bay!; February 4, 2011 at 2:45 PM
JNK said...: If we offered you a High Yield, would you be Very Liquid?; February 4, 2011 at 2:46 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: 4.74% on the long bond.... amazing scenes....
Now watch the banks snap these up with Bernanke bucks.; February 4, 2011 at 2:50 PM
A Quant said...: Every single one of us is short Ts here.; February 4, 2011 at 2:50 PM
Abby Joseph Cohen said...: Dow 30,000; February 4, 2011 at 2:50 PM
Lord Blankfiend said...: Prepare the device, Giles.; February 4, 2011 at 2:51 PM
Giles Straightarrow said...: At once, Lloyd. The Squid must be fed.; February 4, 2011 at 2:51 PM
CV said...: @Jennifer

always room on the pizza menu...

That sounds GOOD (especially because the FLAVOR du JOUR is "applewood smoked bacon")... So it sounds like it would compliment the pears in that way...

I'm DEFINITELY going with this Pear & Gorgonzola version for the SUPER BOWL though...

http://media2.px.yelpcdn.com/bphoto/YLBurqiCrwuGSMsKhJrMdA/l

LOOK KAREN!!!!! "Rucola" (arugula) on that!!!!; February 4, 2011 at 2:52 PM
Anonymous said...: Here we go, a few more fingers...; February 4, 2011 at 2:52 PM
Jennifer said...: I hope Giles sprang for electric start.; February 4, 2011 at 2:52 PM
Anonymous said...: Giles has the electric start, but Brian prefers to see him pull the cord.; February 4, 2011 at 2:53 PM
Jennifer said...: CV - that looks fantastic! One of our favorite restaurants in Chicago has a fantastic pear and gorgonzola tortellini special. Yummmmm.; February 4, 2011 at 2:54 PM
CV said...: What's funny is that ITALIANS usually eat RUCOLA with "Stracchino" (which is good)...

I'm going to have to find a way to go "either/or/or BOTH on the 2 cheeses"...

BOTH doesn't sound right at the moment (but you never know)... until you try...; February 4, 2011 at 2:56 PM
AmenRa said...: Craftsman has a Briggs & Straton 305cc 30" 278lbs dual stage and Yardman has a Powermore 357cc 30" 250lbs dual stage. Hmmm.; February 4, 2011 at 2:59 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: We just did another 6% of fixed income, up to 50%.
Cash levels are now at very low levels, we unloaded 13% this week.

Cash is trash, as BR would say.
Pass the GREY POUPON, old chap.; February 4, 2011 at 3:00 PM
Anonymous said...: AR, that is a lot of suck, or blow...; February 4, 2011 at 3:00 PM

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Morning Corner 2.4.11

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