EGPT (weekly info)trend=no
direction=down (2 bars)
low= 16.60
rev= 20.42; mid= 18.51
Not much to say except that it ain't over. Until things settle down there is no support.
EEM (weekly info)-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 44.80
rev= 48.49; mid= 46.65
Not looking good in emerging markets. Even the Saudi Arabia markets are imploding. How can the sell side put faith in emerging markets leading the way out of the recession? Oh btw there is no need for a double dip when you never left the recession in the first place.
IWMSPY (weekly info)-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 0.6026
rev= 0.6281; mid= 0.6154
Weekly chart formed a bullish thrusting so unless something changes liquidity is about to dry up even more.
164 comments:
Why are there no women marching with the Egyptian Brotherhood...oh, never mind....
"Why are there no women marching with the Egyptian Brotherhood...oh, never mind...."
someones got to make the molotov cocktails...
Are people starting to run from emerging markets back to the perceived safety of the US?
They aren't running to gold or the USD.
"Between 1970 and 2007, inflation-adjusted spending for grades K-12 increased 190 percent without any noticeable improvement in academic achievement, according to Andrew Coulson, director the Center for Educational Freedom at the libertarian Cato Institute in Washington."
so . . .why do we have the Department of Education again?
@Andy T
I really liked those charts from the other thread...
That kind of pattern "fits" with how I'd might envision things... Not that I know anything about EWI (so I'm not commenting based on wave counts)... I'm just viewing it on how it "feels" to me that it might happen...
Which brings me to my point...
That's kind of the reason I'm out of the market these days... What one should ask themselves is... If that's what the index of EQUITIES does over the next 20 years, how does one stand with regards to MONETIZING that outcome...
Let's say one were successful in "top ticking" and "bottom ticking" all those marks... Of course, there are some big swings there (80% moves - 50% moves, etc.)... But really, what is the likelihood that anyone would get all the meat on the bone (that was not named Lloyd or Jamie)...
Further... After 20 years, what would the tax rate be on capital gains (considering you'd have to initiate and liquidate several times in the process and be faced with paying those taxes)...
Further... What's the value of the dollar going to be in the end, and what's the RISK FACTOR in having all your money tied in with banks and electronic balances the whole way through...
The answer is, who the hell knows?... But my "simple" thoughts say that:
- taxes will be higher
- dollar will have less purchasing power as the price of BASIC things like food & energy will be significantly higher in the process (services are likely to be higher as well unless something close to full employment is reached in the process)...
So in the end, it's my feeling that even if one were to trade well, and top & bottom tick, you'll b no richer than you are today with regards to what that money brings you...
God forbid if one trades poorly...
I'm not trying to knock trading here, just giving a different perspective on the ultimate REASONS people trade... I'm guessing most trade to make money...
Forget, for a second, what money is (we've had that discussion before)... But really, money isn't anything until you're holding something of VALUE to you in your hand...
OK - Philosophy session OFF
@Amen
"Are people starting to run from emerging markets back to the perceived safety of the US?"
Looks more to me like they're running to the "safety" of rough rice, cotton, lean hogs, lumber, coffee, nat gas, wheat, Cu, oats, soybean oil, corn, cocoa & cattle...
One of my models shows a possible high on the SPX near 1375. It comes from the "Major 18" model. Was going to post this some time ago but thought I'd get slammed by the bears in the crowd. Major prices (with 50% fibs) are...
1638
...1588
1537
...1456
1375
...1244
1112
...1006
900
...794
688
...557
425
...344
263
...213
162
Before you toss this idea out, plot those prices on a chart, 1987ish to present.
Minor 18 prices (with 50% fibs) are still...
1314
...1305
1296
...1287
1278
...1269
1260
...1251
1242
"Apple’s iPad, which sold more than 14.8 million units worldwide since its introduction in April, faces increasing competition from new tablets made by Samsung Electronics Co., Motorola Mobility Holdings Inc. and Acer Inc., which are powered by Google’s free Android software. Tablet PCs with that operating system will further pare Apple’s lead in the first half of 2011, the researcher said."
I wonder if the Vandal's have crossed the Rubicon?
. . .and on their way to sacking Rome
"I wonder if the Vandal's have crossed the Rubicon?"
---
No need to "cross" any Rubicon on foot these days... Just make one of these puppies and hurl yourself over...
http://www.aolnews.com/2011/01/27/soldiers-seize-drug-slingshot-on-us-mexico-border/
"...Was going to post this some time ago but thought I'd get slammed by the bears in the crowd. Major prices (with 50% fibs) are..."
who's been excoriating "Bulls", around these parts?
thought this was a ~'Free Market' of ideas, no?
~~
cv--
good Q:s, above, lays out, in fairy good detail, why We're, currently, in a Fiat Currency regime..
LSS: without Money, people have a much more difficult time creating, for themselves, ballast against the vicissitudes created by the State..
..those dependent, upon the State, are much more likely to rebel against it..
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/vicissitudes
AAIP
gotta roll out early this morning- but this quote from TBP is worth noting-
More than any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly. -Woody Allen
reminds me of the line where Woody Allen (looking for a date at an Art Museum) asks a woman looking at a Pollock painting what she was doing on Saturday night- and she says committing suicide-
so he asks her "what about Friday night?"
LOL- all be good
"those dependent, upon the State, are much more likely to rebel against it"
You got that right...
Which is why it MAKES ME LAUGH all these comments coming from the White House on Egypt (and to be fair - "Boner" has come out with similar comments)...
"REFORM"... Like what the hell is that supposed to mean?... Is that the new version of "hope and change"... Just like saying "vote for me because I'M NOT GWB (even though I am)" - the situation will at least be better because the Hollywood stars & MSM will quit bitching...
What's ironic is that the White House is telling Egypt that it needs more freedom, all the while it's trying to:
- mandate health care
- tell your kids how to eat ("We just can't leave it up to the parents")
- regulating every facet of your life with some "czar" appointee
But, of course, I'm a "racist" for pointing that out... So don't listen to me...
---
What Egypt REALLY needs is more "Dancing with the Stars"... And maybe a few appearances by Hosni Mubarak on "The View" and "Oprah" would settle things down a bit...
AAIP... point taken...
Trading for the next month...
Major 18's with fibs, possible turn in prices...
1375
...1137
...1313
...1275
...1244 (50%)
...1212
...1174
1112
wow, major syntax error..
w/this: "those dependent, upon the State, are much more likely to rebel against it"
was meaning "less likely" ..
~~
18,
it's all good, just, 'let it fly'..~
AAIP
AT,
In case you miss on the other thread, thanks for the charts this weekend. Lots of good stuff in there. Pretty amazing you've been able to keep the same model for five months now, that's a long time especially in this environment. I pretty much agree with all your sentiments in the post as well regarding Egypt.
I've not completed the NEO Wave book yet as I had hoped as I got myself involved with some other studies, so I have a question:
I'm curious, when you identify certain triangles do you have specific ways to measure the expected move after you see which way it "breaks-out"?
@AAIP
I understood your meaning (notwithstanding the syntax)...
"The alternate domination of one faction over another, sharpened by the spirit of revenge, natural to party dissensions, which in different ages and countries has perpetrated the most horrid enormities, is itself a frightful despotism.
The disorders and miseries which result gradually incline the minds of men to seek security and repose in the absolute power of an individual; and sooner or later the chief of some prevailing faction, more able or more fortunate than his competitors, turns this disposition to the purposes of his own elevation, on the ruins of Public Liberty.
Without looking forward to an extremity of this kind (which nevertheless ought not to be entirely out of sight), the common and continual mischiefs of the spirit of party are sufficient to make it the interest and duty of a wise people to discourage and restrain it.
It serves always to distract the public councils, and enfeeble the public administration. It agitates the community with ill-founded jealousies and false alarms; kindles the animosity of one part against another; foments occasionally riot and insurrection. It opens the door to foreign influence and corruption, which find a facilitated access to government itself through the channels of party passions. Thus the policy and the will of one country are subjected to the policy and will of another.
There is an opinion that parties in free countries are useful checks upon the administration of the government, and serve to keep alive the spirit of liberty. This, within certain limits, is probably true; and in governments of a monarchical cast patriotism may look with indulgence, if not with favour, upon the spirit of party: but, in those of the popular character, in governments purely elective, it is a spirit not to be encouraged. From their natural tendency it is certain there will always be enough of that spirit for every salutary purpose. And there being constant danger of excess, the effort ought to be, by force of public opinion, to mitigate and assuage it. A fire not to be quenched, it demands a uniform vigilance to prevent its bursting into a flame, lest, instead of warming, it should consume."
-- George Washington
(1732-1799) Founding Father, 1st US President, 'Father of the Country'
Source: George Washington's Farewell Address, September 17, 1796
http://liberty-tree.ca/research/George.Washingtons.Farewell.Address
http://quotes.liberty-tree.ca/quote_blog/George.Washington.Quote.B6FC
ibid.
Forex & Bonds Last Change Change %
EUR/USD 1.3703 +0.0094 +0.69%
USD/JPY 82.05 -0.04 -0.05%
GBP/USD 1.5925 +0.0068 +0.43%
5-Year Treasury 1.923 -0.003 -0.16%
10-Year Treasury 3.345 +0.016 +0.48%
30-Year Treasury 4.559 +0.034 +0.75%
http://finviz.com
has anyone looked @
http://club.ino.com/join/lessons/ ?
~~
cv--,
Claro~
ibid.
That's a first. The daily and weekly pivot points are the same. The reason is that the high and low for the week happened on Friday.
What a fizzle. Perhaps JPM was right about the "overwhelmingly waiting" for a correction thingy...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Lowwage-jobs-dominated-hiring-cnnm-311581420.html?x=0
Low-wage jobs dominated hiring so far in job market recovery
"Growth has been concentrated in mid-wage and lower-wage industries. By contrast, higher-wage industries showed weak growth and even net losses," said Annette Bernhardt, policy co-director for the National Employment Project. She said that growth has been far more unbalanced than during previous job recoveries.
We are going to be out most of the day, but will pop in from time to time to see what's going on.
We are NOT playing spooz in either direction. We are short silver and yen on a mean reversion and reversal of flight to safety.
Egypt is fascinating, not least b/c of the US ethical dilemma. "please US puppet dictator, don't use US bullets on your people.." Hmm...
Still bearish EMs (China, India) on inflation, but not involved here.
If Egypt emerges unscathed as a democracy, their market will soar, the country is a sleeping giant in the Arab world.
Let's hope the transition is peaceful. Mubarak is a SOB. What's more, he is Langley's SOB. There are muddy waters beneath the surface.
Mubarak,
GO OUT !!
Bernanke, Geithner...
GO OUT !!!
I'm ready to say goodbye to the 1280s.
@Jennifer (10:54)
to 1280...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_50-gOeBilc
Glad I didn't try to short EUR friday.
I did try to short CHF, that just got stopped out.
Still short AUD. EURAUD is the only "trending" pair that I can find, and my only position in green today.
CV -- too soon, we're back at 1283 again.
regardless of where we close today, this should be examined tonight:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_goypolxEFd4/TUZ2-AAizKI/AAAAAAAAJrg/yAakfzQAnWE/s1600/NYSE%2BVolume%2BA-D.png
Cobra had a nice chart regarding the huge move we saw in VIX late last week, about 80% + probability we'd have gotten a strong rally today or tomorrow in response to that so.
Some notes for those of us who like bonds:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-31/treasury-rout-ending-in-fed-index-showing-stable-prices-as-growth-improves.html
Gold selling off.
TEOTWAWKI trades beginning to unwind.
All the fun I can come up with today:
Benzinga.com
Intel said it implemented a "silicon fix." I believe this was Pam Anderson's reasoning as well.
Pic of Chinese cotton farmer hoarding cotton in his house http://on.wsj.com/eRrQWl
1623: Professor David Kelly of Sydney's University of Technology tells the BBC it has been widely reported that searches for the word "Egypt" in Chinese have been blocked on microblogs (such as Twitter).\r\r"You can search for the English word 'Egypt' and apparently find discussion [of the unrest]. But the average user would probably be put off by not finding it in Chinese. The government feels threatened by the parallels it has seen in China in connection with 'colour revolutions'. \r"The authorities in Beijing are in my mind quite insecure, and signal this constantly… even very minor expressions of discontent can be treated as threats to the stability of the regime."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698
Bruce
I read about that earlier. Amazing that a country is afraid of its citizens seeing or hearing about revolution.
OTOH I wonder if that also makes the US nervous?
$copper is the new gold (again.)
FXC, and FCX for that matter, telling a different story.
Odd day if you ask me..
Obanana,
GO OUT !!
It is a very odd day.
Everyone is waiting on Egypt. Mubarak - GO OUT !!
The Chinese are peeing their pants watching Egypt.
China is a house of cards. India and China inflation can be the trigger for forms of social unrest in those countries as well.
China must deflate their bubbles or it will all end in tears.
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2011/01/24/110124fa_fact_lizza?currentPage=all
Very good reading about the new "cop" on the beat in DC. Arson for profit, loan sharking and grand theft auto.
@AT,
other questions (book is at home)
In NEO Wave Neutral Triangle
the D wave; any time rules or size rules in relation to the B wave? Same with the E wave, what's the measurement on the E wave for minimum target as it breaks out of the triangle, is = to A or something else?
Right now on the count GN is presenting the D wave is much much smaller and took less than half the time of the B wave in the triangle.
It appears he was looking for the E wave to equal the A wave (A is marked at the April 2010 highs) but the E wave, thus far has fallen well short of that price target and time has basically run out for it as well past both his time box and the apex of the triangle.
Count is looking a little shaky it would seem.
Thoughts?
Arson for profit, loan sharking and grand theft auto.
Breaking and entering to meet his missus, too.
I'm back. Look out. I am right behind you.
F all the way down at 16.01 now, selling pressure might be fading, at least for a few days...
EGPT up 7%. We are long this.
TEOTWAWKI not happening today.
Breaking News
Liverpool soccer team agrees to pay club-record fee for Newcastle striker Andy Carroll -- BBC News http://bbc.in/fQNiKd
EEM could run up to 46.65 or 47 again before giving way.
Not rushing in here, danger of a relief rally if Egypt improves.
Later in the week will be the time to get short.
Crude is telling us that the chance of a moonshot in oil is slim.
it's up 6% on declining volume, looking to retest the broken neckline on the very clear H&S...look at a two year chart of the index, not at the ETF
some might suggest some caution
that ETF is 52% financials
I would assume people are playing very small ball with an ETF that is priced under $20 and changes less than 50k shares a day.
Hey Ben. Will try to answer those triangle questions a bit later.
Sort of swamped today.
WOW. Back to the future.
Andy Carroll and Luis Sanchez ! That means Torres is gone.
When Dalglish played, it was always a big guy winning headers and a little guy (Dalglish) scoring goals.
I would assume people are playing very small ball with an ETF
VERY small ball. A minor amusement.
AT,
no problem man, no rush, just trying to get a good plan in order for the next 6 months or so.
thanks
I suppose we should keep an eye on the Saudi ETF...is there one?
Also, what's the symbol for Member's Only jackets?
makes me wonder how many people puked up shares of that EGPT at an even $17
looks like it was of the projectile variety
anyone got any comments on the F chart??
We probably will not get married to EGPT.
"We provide liquidity.."
"You are a f*cking gambler"
Fair comment.
We did a 1.5% sliver of the portfolio on that one. It just appealed to us as a mean reversion trade, so we put it on near Friday's close.
Less attractive today is a small widowmaker and a yen short, other mean reversion trades that are not working, but should later this week.
well, if put on late Friday
very nice trade
probably pays for Pizza this month
probably pays for Pizza this month
Nothing wrong with that.....! Happiness.
Can't quite believe the weakness of Bucky given what's going on out there in the world. The power of QE2 and Benny Bucks....
Wednesday will be the end of this bull run in crude. Given that Egypt is a non-producing state, it is hardly relevant. Canal is open and no tension with Israel as this plays out.
Remember that the Saudis would crush opposition ruthlessly. The House of Saud is the worst dictatorship on the planet. Iran, China are close behind. Syria might be interesting. Libya, anyone? Those populations will be watching Egypt very very closely.
Big bounce in junk bonds today.
Another great day to unload some HY fixed income ?
Most of the move down in rates at the long end from Friday has been unwound here. We are now more afraid of a hot ADP than of Egypt.
This feels like one of those parties where the guests just wont get the hell out of your house.
PUTIN. Go OUT !!!
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110131/ap_on_re_eu/eu_russia_protest
This is beautiful. I am afraid that somewhere in the world we will see a protest brutally crushed. China, Saudi and the United States are the most heavy-handed police states outside of Iran.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/treasurys-edge-down-after-data-2011-01-31?siteid=rss&rss=1
http://lifehacker.com/5611547/top-10-ways-your-brain-is-sabotaging-you-and-how-to-beat-it
The 30y hit 4.60% and that was bought. POMO was front end today, so as a result we have a steepener. 2s30s is 402 BPS !!
Traders may exit Ts a little before the Wednesday ADP number. Hard for me to see that this economy is generating a lot of jobs, though.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BOE.V&ql=1
1:28PM EST: 1.92 +0.12 (6.67%)
this little Co. has been working well..
ibid.
we stalled right at major fibo retraces
closing above the 61.8% I'll read as bullish for US markets, at least in the near term, different retrace on the Naz but you can do the math and get the idea....
This feels like one of those parties where the guests just wont get the hell out of your house.
You've met my new sister-in-law?
this co. should be understood..
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GFS.V&ql=1
AAIP
The Bull is going to sit in your living room for another day or so.
Don't mess with him or he will just make a mess on your carpet.
Egyptian spreads still rising. That's not bullish.
Holding EGPT brings a new meaning to the phrase "overnight risk".
a few names that we follow in focus today:
http://www.youtube.com/user/optionmonstertv#p/u/0/6SjH6Sg6Qns
bulls ass, that's a good one
EEM. Double top, or a pause before shooting higher....?
good read on T's
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/01/31/474221/beware-the-special-treasury-market/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/why-is-al-jazeera-blacked-out-in-us/
Perhaps so we can't hear about US taxpayer money funding US made tear gas and bullets in Egypt?
We believe the purchases of on-the-run securities are a reflection of deteriorating liquidity in the Treasury market.
Yes, but we have seen this movie before - last Spring. Nothing like a sharp downturn in the equity market to generate liquidity in Ts.
They are correct about "flip this bond" trading in on-the-run Ts, but we think this is a temporary state of affairs.
$wtic $92.36, Brent over $100.
But this is a short squeeze, and leverage. Unless you are Krugman, and then it is "supply and demand". Paul is a Master Trader.
Consensus for NFP is +150k. So that means ADP could be anywhere between 0 and 2 million.
Dont you forget about me...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/here-come-black-swans
I really hope this guy is a bad joke, latest list of trades to fade..
If there is a flock of black swans, is that really a "Black Swan"?
Back at this stupid ledge again? Come on already...I have the flu.
We are going to have 20 inches of snow in the next two days. Is a 10 point drop too much to ask for?
I'm putting my seatbelt on...
Weird stuff with the VIX today.
Hi I-man...no 5 point harness?
Nymex Crude Settles At 2-Year Record At $92.19/Bbl - Crude Oil Settles At Highest Since Oct 2008
DTO did not make a new low, however.
more and more i am seeing a total disconnect between news and its attributed impact on markets to what markets/prices actually do..
i think i'm becoming ben.
That guy has been wrong about direction and timing many times.
Let's look at his Black Swans:
*The ten year Treasury bond spikes to 5% and money gets expensive.
NOT HAPPENING UNDER ZIRP.
*Crude soars to $120 a barrel and gasoline rises to $4 a gallon.
POSSIBLE BUT UNLIKELY WITH DEMAND SUBDUED.
*Europe blows up again, sending the dollar through the roof.
MORE LIKELY BUT NOT COMPATIBLE WITH #2
*Seeing stock prices soar, Ben Bernanke ends QE2 early, paring it down to QE 1 ½.
ALSO UNLIKELY.
*The high frequency traders and quants hungry for a mean reversion smell blood in the water and trigger another “flash crash.”
ALWAYS A POSSIBILITY, especially WHEN POMO WINDS DOWN.
I dont trust overnight lows that get reinforced on overnight volumes...
"a total disconnect between news and its attributed impact on markets"
Those headlines are written by 22 year old Bloomberg interns, who attribute price movements to "the economy". They are not exactly the global macro trading fraternity.
"i think i'm becoming ben."
I am not sure ben looks good in heels, or panties.
"I am not sure ben looks good in heels, or panties."
oh, you are so wrong
not that I've tried, I just know I could rock that stuff (if I had to)
After a couple of frou-frous, at least. Or one scorpion bowl.
if we close red i'll be sporting my 12k panties in celebration.
Or a lot of Robitussin, which sounds oddly appealing about now for me.
jennifer, how is tonsil-less girl? back in school?
Karen,
yeah, over the weekend there were lots of "news" articles attributing the sell-off Friday to Egypt, but markets stopped "in the zone" as AT illustrated and were ripe for a pullback, an arcmchair tech could have figured that out.
re: Black Swan
I think it is important to keep in mind that Taleb wrote a book called Fooled by Randomness while at the same time doing world tours advising people about "must have trades".
I saw the word Black Swan mentioned all over the web in relation to Egypt not many hours after things started over there. I thought that was amusing for different reasons.
I think in the end, and this isn't likely a popular view, that Taleb will have proved to help market participants, especially "the common man", to take a step back, rather than taking a step forward.
I'm also still annoyed that he and Mandelbrot while still alive never gave credit where it was due when it came to fractal discover. I might suggest RN Elliott's, Nature's Law, which was written well before their time.
if we close red i'll be sporting my 12k panties in celebration.
We like that idea better. No frou frous for ben, please...
@Jennifer,
hope you feel better, the flu is the worst. Unlike your kids you don't even get a few days off of school.
Karen -- she is much better, thanks! The recovery was horrible. Direct quote "when this ordeal is over, I never want to eat vanilla ice cream again." It took 3 1/2 weeks for her voice to return to normal (she sounded like minnie mouse and was not pleased at all to have to go back to school like that) and she was having lots of trouble swallowing (stuff went up and out her nose instead of down her throat) but she is back at school. Now I just have to work on putting some weight back on her as a week with no solid foods gave her that certain model on heroin look that was very popular a few years ago but not so great on my 3rd grader.
You know, I got the shot. Isn't that supposed to be good for something?
Jennifer.. i hope she doesn't get mono in high school, for both your sakes !!
Jennifer, alzheimer's i hear.. but perhaps one of the good doctors around here know better.. no shots for me, unless you've got some heroin and.. hate this market : )
This 1282 level reminds me of a vacation I took many years ago, pre children. We were in Mexico, returning from the Mayan ruins at Chichen Itza. Tour bus stops at a cenote, a giant sink hole. THere is a huge underground lake. We are hot and sweaty, so we decide a swim sounds like a good idea. People are jumping from this ledge, high up over the water. Not something I would normally do, but others are (so presumably safe) and husband suggests it, so off we go. Creep up to the edge. Curl toes over the edge. Hold hands. He says "Jump on the count of three." He counts. We get to three. I jump. He lets go of my hand.
Realizing how much trouble he is about to be in, he jumps approximately 3 seconds later.
Also, I realize it's not Taleb up there but are those really "black swan" type calls?
Being a dick as always, I'm gonna have to say they look more like trend extrapolation rather than "calls".
The Treasury call might have been more impressive if made when yields were screaming lower, not after weeks of them rising.
Oil, that might have been a prescient call in 1999, certainly isn't now, we've already been to $150 and back, same thing with the Europe call.
The Bernanke call is illogical, and denies the fact that the DOW shed roughly 3,000 points during the first round of real QE when the global central bankers offered unlimited credit, but he's revised history like most people have on this front.
and finally, this is like, TA, 101, stocks don't need anyone to do anything to "crash", stocks can and often do collapse under their own weight.
It's the exact reason why upside breakouts should be attended by volume increases but this is not the case with downside breakout patterns.
not too impressed by that article
does having your tonsils out make you more likely to get mono?
I had mine out when I was a little kid, never got the mono though
you can't share beers when they are taped to your hands right?
great story! damned if he did, or damned if he didn't, i bet he correctly chose the lesser of the two evils! LOL..
that's a funny story Jennifer, your husband sounds like a guy I'd have a good time hanging out with
pranks
masks
light sabers
the funny dino's in the yard
yeah, he's a cool guy....
Taleb was preaching the Death of Treasuries ever since the crash, stopped clock etc.. doesn't seem to read much except his own books.... as a trader he isn't much better than Rosie.
Mish offers us all a reminder of those living on retirement income. Cat food city.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/01/hello-ben-bernanke-meet-stephanie.html
Cool wife, too...
ben, ben, ben, i wasn't implying a tonsillectomy increased your chances of mono.. i was merely hoping she didn't have another vicious sore throat..
Re; Al Jazeer
Ch. 375 DirecTv
Yes, he is very funny. His birthday is groundhog day...I have no similarly brilliant ideas (not a milestone though.)
Thanks, I-man. Guess we didn't need those seat belts (yet.) I restrained myself from shorting prematurely, so I guess that's good for something.
you all saw this by now, i'm sure:
http://www.businessinsider.com/another-us-judge-just-ruled-obamacare-to-be-unconstitutional-2011-1
"Taleb was preaching the Death of Treasuries ever since the crash"
Exactly, guess he was "fooled by randomness"?
nice excuse for a money manager I suppose (not my fault, it was all random!), of course, would make you wonder how you ever take a position in the first place if that's true, what do you base your decision on?
I recall well Hugh Hendry basically laughing at him as he began to describe the "must have trade" which was short US Treasuries.
ok Karen,
I started thinking I had mono right after you said it....ROR
Yeah, I bagged 20 ticks... but wanted more like 120.
Yeah, I'm a greedy little bitch.
Kids gotta eat.
barry ritholtz
Our quick overview of Equity Markets and Technical factors - Barry http://screenr.com/hzY
Some days you're the bug, some days you're the windshield...
Karen, thanks for the BR clip.
I recall well Hugh Hendry basically laughing at him as he began to describe the "must have trade" which was short US Treasuries.
that's right, we did, I mean HUGH HENDRY did laugh at him...
Looks like we won't finish red, Karen.... :-(
ben, did you look at F on a weekly chart? it has got to retest the breakout area at 15, don't you think? then, JBTFD.
anyone look at the GLD chart today? 128 is a given.. sub 128 looks probable..
SLV is just begging to break 26, it seems to me..
got my hands full of DTO, however : (
I-Man.. did you get my email reply about the hotels? did you make your reservations??
Havent checked that email in a few days, but I will now.
Karen,
I started over the weekend (to look at F) but I still need some more quality time with her.
Diana Olick
Nearly 11 percent of US Houses Empty: http://tinyurl.com/69vj6bm
(don't tell Cramer, he wouldn't get it.)
SLV really wants to go down, we are hoping she will.
JPYUSD too.
DTO will be OK, when TEOTWAWKI trade is taken off.
Why is she called Diana
OLICK?
i am still patiently awaiting nflx's return earth..
MEH -- if you're around, GRM topped out.
just looked at ERX chart.. UFB.
then look at ERX from beginning of speptember..
Crap. Net $ vol still is bullish. TRIN & PC ratio trying to indicate sell off.
Been busy scanning my charting software to see how many different commodities are available. I didn't know there were futures on home price index and NFP. Talk about a casino.
ERX = liquidity
Talk about a casino.
Y'all are a bunch of bookies...
Out of EGPT. 8% profit.
No overnight curfew, I mean, risk.
That's how we roll. We provide liquidity...
2 day, ten min cup and handle on all indices.. they've all been trading together, getting ready for tomorrow's 12k and 1300 run no doubt.
i hadn't realized FL represented 13 states:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-31/obama-health-care-reform-act-unconstitutional-judge-says-in-26-state-suit.html
First of the month, new money, yada yada.
Dumped another 2% aliquot of JNK.
We are back to a 9% allocation.
We will probably sit there for now as our core position.
Looking at HY, there is rate risk and credit risk.
15% equity longs. 6% short silver. 3% short JPY.
9% HYG/JNK, 3% LQD, 10% AGG, 5% TIP, 6% TLT. (33% fixed income)
U.S. stocks start week with gains; Dow finishes month up 2.7% in best January since 1997
01/31/2011 04:02:59 PM
http://www.businessinsider.com/a-readers-tips-for-elites-fleeing-egypt-2011-1
gold and crude are a bit unwieldy to tote around..
"We believe the purchases of on-the-run securities are a reflection of deteriorating liquidity in the Treasury market."
I presume you are talking about the Fed POMOs? I have been hearing chatter for a month about how the NY Fed has been pushed into the on the run issues because of the horrid liquidity in the off the run issues (especially in the belly).
ZH has been highlighting the CUSIPs that have been the target of the POMOs. You are correct.
But surely a little equity dump will cure all problems in USTs.
LB & Matthew
Explain "on the run" and "off the run" securities. Por favor.
i guess i won't stick around for bidu.. later all!
"on the run", means the Ts that the Treasury just auctioned to the P/Ds before the Fed buys em back at a price that works for the banks.
It's a racket.
Bye, K. We'll miss you.
First Trading Day of the Month: Another 1% Gain?
MONDAY, JANUARY 31, 2011 AT 03:59PM
Tomorrow marks the start of a new month, and the big question for traders is will the recent trend of rallies on the first trading day of the month remain in place? Since the start of 2010, the S&P 500 has finished the first trading day of the month higher in eleven out of thirteen months (85%). Additionally, the S&P 500 has also risen more than one percent eight out of thirteen times (62%).
In fact, the first trading day of the month has had such a large impact on the equity market recently that if it wasn't for that day, instead of being up 15.3% since the start of 2010, the S&P 500 would only be up 1.4%. In the chart below, we show the performance of the S&P 500 since 2010 and break out the returns based on all days except the first trading day of the month and performance using just the first trading day of the month. As shown, nearly all of the S&P 500's gains since the start of 2010 have come on the first trading day.
http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/1/31/first-trading-day-of-the-month-another-1-gain.html
I don't read ZH because there is too much conspiracy stuff there. It's probably better investigative journalism than anything in the WSJ, but I know that sometimes he/she attributes to malice what is probably best left to plain old stupidity (for which the government seems to have a proclivity).
J-
yes, re: GRM, looks like 'gravity' has caught up to the 'parabola'..
still looks like it'll see ~16, at the min.
AAIP
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=F&ty=c&ta=1&p=d
wow, that's one ugly Chart.
a pull-back to ~14 would do wonders for it..
back to the 200sma..
ibid.
The Bond Report 1.31.11
A classic Monday following a TEOTWAWKI Friday. Risk was on, and a front end POMO meant another big steepener. 2s30s reached 403 bps at one point and settled at 401 bps.
Corpies: LQD -0.28%; AGG -0.19%; JNK 0.65%; HYG 0.54%
Govies: TLT -0.76%; IEI -0.16%; TIP 0.03%
Munis: IQI -0.30%; MUB -0.53%
Mortgages: MBB 0.00%
Hedgies: TBT 1.35%
We dumped another 2% JNK. We are playing defence.
Our trade du jour was selling EGPT at a 8% profit.
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