TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Corner 2.1.11

Morning Corner 2.1.11

Rough Rice (weekly info)
trend=no
direction=down (2 bars)
low= 13.70
rev= 15.05; mid= 14.38

Last week rough rice closed above the weekly 3LB mid and today closed above its weekly 3LB reversal price. Ruh roh. Food riots coming to a country near you…soon.

Wheat (weekly info)
new high 912.00
trend=up
high= 912.00
rev= 851.00; mid= 881.50

Ok so rough rice prices are bad for many. Wheat isn't helping. Trend is up and looking to take out recent highs. Ruh roh #2.

Coffee (weekly info)
new high 245.00
trend=up
high= 245.00
rev= 225.30; mid= 235.15

This needs to stop. Don't mess with my coffee!!! People can speculate all they want. But if coffee prices get too high we're going to have a problem.

228 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 1 – 200 of 228 Newer› Newest»

CV said...: it's a 'banana republic'...

and YES we have no bananas...; February 1, 2011 at 7:32 AM
Anonymous said...: Corn 659.5 +15.5 +2.36
Soybeans 1413.0 +15.0 +1.06
30yr Bond 120.34375 -0.28125 -0.23
10yr Note 120.796875 -0.359375 -0.30
NY Gold 1336.7 +2.2 +0.16
NY Silver 28.200 +0.031 +0.11
http://www.ino.com/

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GRAINS

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SOFTS&p=d1

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=MEATS&p=d1

AAIP

still looking for ~16, here
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=GRM; February 1, 2011 at 8:03 AM
AmenRa said...: CV

Do they trade futures on bananas?; February 1, 2011 at 8:25 AM
AmenRa said...: Wow. Orexigen down over 73% after FDA rejection: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=OREX&ql=0

Closed at $9.09 yesterday. Futures around $2.40 as we speak.; February 1, 2011 at 8:28 AM
CV said...: @Amen

Stock market of the future...

- Find something to trade... If there is nothing to trade, make something up...

- Print money

- Give it to Jamie & Lloyd

- Let their bots bid up the prices & get Johnny interested

- Sell the last tick to Johnny

eh... come to think of it, that's the stock market of today...; February 1, 2011 at 8:31 AM
ben22 said...: @Jennifer,

re, Karl on NFLX

I really hope I never become "that guy" and if I do someone here should keep me in line and call me out

Putting little things up that say "I told you so" on a stock that is up 250% in the last 12 months and just had a 16% gap up the other day destroying shorts and he's doing so because of some fundamental information. A stock which he has been negative on for months and months now....

He told us so what?; February 1, 2011 at 8:33 AM
Jennifer said...: Ben -- don't worry, you're not that guy.; February 1, 2011 at 8:38 AM
Jennifer said...: They have already cancelled school for tomorrow. The storm isn't even here yet!; February 1, 2011 at 8:40 AM
ben22 said...: yeah it's not bad here yet either and it looks like lots of things have shut down already

ice storm.....fun stuff

perfect conditions for my rear wheel drive sport tires; February 1, 2011 at 8:55 AM
Anonymous said...: jennifer-

outside of last Monday and this Monday- my kids (that are still in school) missed all last week due to snow and now today due to ice-

my son and daughter still sound asleep; February 1, 2011 at 8:55 AM
18 said...: Yesterday and Friday's 1278 support held. Ran up to 1287 resistance (50% 1278-1296) turned down. Todays resistance price to watch... 1296

1314
...1305
1296
...1287
1278; February 1, 2011 at 9:02 AM
AmenRa said...: Yet again they're going after Meredith Whitney: Whitney: Municipal Bond Apocalypse

Whitney Municipal-Bond Apocalypse Is Short on Default Specifics

“There’s not a doubt in my mind that you will see a spate of municipal-bond defaults,” the banking analyst Meredith Whitney, nodding her head, said on a Dec. 19 segment of CBS Corp.’s “60 Minutes.”

“How many is a spate?” correspondent Steve Kroft asked.

“You could see 50 sizable defaults, 50 to 100 sizable defaults, more,” said Whitney, 41, who made her name covering bank stocks. “This will amount to hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of defaults.”

Those two sentences set off a month of fireworks. California Treasurer Bill Lockyer called the prediction “apocalyptic arm-waving,” the National League of Cities’ research director cited her “stunning lack of understanding,” and Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund, simply said he doesn’t subscribe to the “theory.”

Whitney doesn’t have specific numbers backing up her now- famous prediction, she said in a Jan. 30 interview. “Quantifying is a guesstimate at this point,” she said. “I was giving an approximation of a magnitude that will bear out to be correct.”; February 1, 2011 at 9:19 AM
18 said...: 18 on SPY chart; February 1, 2011 at 9:29 AM
Anonymous said...: In Sweden~

"Kunskapsskolan – An Entrepreneurial Success Story

Executive Summary

A private Swedish company, Kunskapsskolan, has been successful in building a network of independent schools.
With all its revenues are derived from a system of school vouchers implemented in the early 1990s, the company is growing rapidly, mostly in cities.
It saves significant money by operating all its schools through a central administrative unit.
It has successfully recruited students of differing abilities from a wide range of socio-economic backgrounds.
Kunskapsskolan uses a ladder system to measure student achievement and tailors its programs to the needs of individual students.
Learning offsite through the Internet saves money, and teachers act more as tutors.
Teachers’ salaries go up with student achievement, not seniority.
Expensive school resources like laboratories are uniquely shared and computers abound.
Administrative efficiency is achieved by organizational streamlining.
Satisfaction levels are high and waiting lists for entrance long.
Kunskapsskolan is working well, but its future depends on the ability to clear a small profit..."
http://www.fcpp.org/publication.php/1034

Private Schools making + Impact in Sweden..

http://search.yippy.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&v%3Aproject=clusty&query=Peje+Emilsson; February 1, 2011 at 9:41 AM
AmenRa said...: SPX above weekly R1 (1294.31). Finally broke above its weekly PP (1284.70) in the first 5 minutes. Arrgghh!!!; February 1, 2011 at 9:48 AM
Jennifer said...: I've got a bad feeling that this is not the fantastic shorting opportunity that I'd like it to be.; February 1, 2011 at 9:49 AM
ben22 said...: at least MW can admit that it's all a guesstimate, all the other people on the other side of her will not acknowledge this

So I listen accordingly

PIMCO, btw, oversees how many hundres of millions in muni assets....what the hell else is Bill Gross gonna say....oh sure, I agree, pull all your money out

time will tell if she's wrong but I find it real interesting so many people are trying to trash her on this one.; February 1, 2011 at 9:50 AM
Anonymous said...: Risk on Bitchez....; February 1, 2011 at 9:52 AM
Anonymous said...: from BR-

"Whenever markets experience the intense selling of 90/90 days — those trading sessions when 90 percent of the volume is to the downside, and 9 out of 10 stocks close lower — it often marks a turning point in a bull run. The psychology is shifting, as institutions are changing postures from accumulation to distribution."; February 1, 2011 at 9:55 AM
Anonymous said...: Grantham-

"I believe the only things that really matter in investing are the bubbles and the busts."; February 1, 2011 at 9:57 AM
ben22 said...: Ahab,

Do you know how many 90% down days we got last year AFTER the flash crash

Answer: Lots; February 1, 2011 at 10:00 AM
Anonymous said...: S&P 500
1296.77
+10.65 +0.83%
Dow Indu
11955.01
+63.08 +0.53%
http://www.ino.com/

ibid.; February 1, 2011 at 10:01 AM
ben22 said...: @AT,

Timers Digest put out all their rankings yesterday, Glenn Neely made a very nice showing on several different time frames and over the longer haul he is one of the top timers they have tracked over the last decade. His returns speak for themself.

The super top notch timers:

Michael Gibbons
George Slezak
Holly Hooper

all three of them since 2000 have fairly amazing track records, three different approaches. For those looking for some help on the 401k side, the last person offers a very nice service for only $175 per year (fair warning, Hooper uses a momentum strategy, I think it's roughly 2 trades per year round trip since 1999); February 1, 2011 at 10:05 AM
the Bernank said...: "I believe the only things that really matter in investing are the bubbles and the busts."

Busts? What busts? I have ordained that there shall no longer be busts.; February 1, 2011 at 10:08 AM
AmenRa said...: ben22

I was wondering why she was on so many hit lists. She just calls it like she sees it. Plus nothing happens right away.; February 1, 2011 at 10:09 AM
ben22 said...: Ra,

I'd bet people are still pissed off that she got the bank calls right me, and probably a lot of men are angry because she's a woman.; February 1, 2011 at 10:11 AM
ben22 said...: EGPT rocking it again this morning, Ford back above $16

see, all is right with the world; February 1, 2011 at 10:18 AM
Anonymous said...: "....I'd bet people are still pissed off that she got the bank calls right me, and probably a lot of men are angry because she's a woman..."

def., x2

I think the reaction to her 'Muniland'-Call is akin to the 'townsfolk's', initial, reaction to the boy who called-out the King's 'new clothes'..

also, re: SPX, it's 'Shortin' Season', 18's call on ~1296 look like Cache..

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=CME_INX&t=&a=&w=&v=w

1297.99 +11.87 (+0.92%)

AAIP; February 1, 2011 at 10:18 AM
ben22 said...: look at the volume (daily) on the EGPT chart; February 1, 2011 at 10:19 AM
Anonymous said...: she's on my hit list-

I would definitely hit that; February 1, 2011 at 10:20 AM
ben22 said...: @18,

You ever play around with this?

http://www.richardphillips.org.uk/number/gl/lucas.htm; February 1, 2011 at 10:21 AM
karen said...: good morning! Karl who? Denninger? did i miss something from previous thread?; February 1, 2011 at 10:22 AM
karen said...: couldn't the dollar rally on this? http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Factory-sector-expands-at-apf-3467417365.html?x=0; February 1, 2011 at 10:24 AM
Jennifer said...: Hi Karen,

Denninger had a smackdown of NFLX last night. All true, but since when do fundamentals matter? Here we are at 1300 again...; February 1, 2011 at 10:24 AM
Anonymous said...: re: Holly Hooper

http://www.mutualfundstrategist.com/about_us/

I never understood why these 'firms' never expand into MFs (themselves)..
~~

this: "...In January 2007 we decided to restructure our Momentum Portfolio. We now offer dedicated Momentum Portfolio strategies for ProFunds, Rydex and ETF investors. Investing directly with ProFunds and Rydex instead of through a broker eliminates transaction fees and allows for a later trading cut-off time. The advantages of investing in ETFs are numerous..".
http://www.mutualfundstrategist.com/model_portfolios/

gets toward the idea..

ibid.; February 1, 2011 at 10:27 AM
ben22 said...: it's hard to justify that stocks have ever moved over short periods of time (3 years or less) on fundamentals

what were the fundamentals during the 04-07 peak?, how about during the 90's when by every meaningful measure our economy was weaker than during our last large cycle expansion from the early 40's to late 60's.

what are they now?!!; February 1, 2011 at 10:28 AM
I-Man said...: Nice little shakeout going on in Bucky 5min chart... Dont be fooled.

Calling a little upside reversey on that one...

The I wan fi see Bucky AND US equities run higher...; February 1, 2011 at 10:30 AM
Anonymous said...: 01-Feb-11 09:58AM Market Vectors Egypt ETF: Now 50% Cash, With a Hefty Premium for That Cash at Seeking Alpha
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=EGPT&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

it's insane, and, actually, pathetic, that so many are rolling out the 'buy w/ 'blood in gutters'-verbiage, a la "Rothschild"

AAIPP; February 1, 2011 at 10:31 AM
ben22 said...: as mentioned yesterday, continue to keep a close eye on breadth, look at it now

this is short covering from where I'm sitting

I might not agree with BR's assesment of 90% down days because I've witnessed otherwise but this does look an awful lot like textbook distribution right now.; February 1, 2011 at 10:38 AM
ben22 said...: If UUP drops below $22 and the dollar index continues to drop it's time for me to re-adjust my thinking there....; February 1, 2011 at 10:40 AM
Anonymous said...: "The European Central Bank suspended its emergency purchases of euro zone government bonds last week as the debt crisis eased, allowing it to focus on combating rising inflation. . .

. . .The ECB said its government bond purchase programme – launched last year as part of European Union efforts to stabilise the euro – was halted last week for the first time since October . . .

. . .Mr Trichet insisted that ECB monetary policy is detached from crisis-fighting moves. However, financial markets would be unlikely to take seriously a threat to raise interest rates if the ECB was still intervening heavily in markets."

that last paragraph is funny stuff; February 1, 2011 at 10:41 AM
karen said...: note TLT and TBT, as well..; February 1, 2011 at 10:44 AM
ben22 said...: is that a divvy impact on TLT?; February 1, 2011 at 10:48 AM
karen said...: sh*t.. uup could still go to 21.90.. if 22.22 doesn't hold.. it is bad: (

but look at GLD.. s; February 1, 2011 at 10:50 AM
Anonymous said...: so outside of Andy- no-one liked my post the other night about Japan changing the name of the bullet train (due to the shooting in AZ)-

to the wizard train- maybe no-one understood . . .or maybe the joke just sucked-

tough crowd; February 1, 2011 at 10:52 AM
karen said...: oops, on up.. it's bad.; February 1, 2011 at 10:52 AM
Anonymous said...: TLT gave birth to divi, correct; February 1, 2011 at 10:53 AM
karen said...: ahab! i loved it !! that thread was closed but i should have exclaimed on the following one : ); February 1, 2011 at 10:54 AM
karen said...: not the divi impact.. that happens on ex div day.. altho i am not showing the latest ex div day on e*trade.. but it should have occurred a few days ago.; February 1, 2011 at 10:57 AM
Anonymous said...: Thank you Karen- it was my own creation (sort of)-

anyone peruse the Slope of Hope?

there are a couple of bullish types on there now which has all the regulars in a tizzy-

lock step or death; February 1, 2011 at 10:58 AM
karen said...: besides that, tbt has no div; February 1, 2011 at 10:59 AM
karen said...: GM shares on rise after January U.S. sales surge more than 20%
02/01/2011 10:57:50 AM; February 1, 2011 at 10:59 AM
karen said...: umm.. they should have looked at the GM chart before that news flash..; February 1, 2011 at 11:00 AM
AmenRa said...: TLT went x-div on 12/28/10; February 1, 2011 at 11:01 AM
karen said...: A very bullish report on the ISM Manufacturing front as a reading of 60.8 was hit. While manufacturing is only 11% of the economy, and 9% of employment (and employs less people today than anytime since the early 1940s) [Nov 29, 2010: America Has Less Manufacturing Jobs Today than Before the War] it still has a good halo effect, as a better outlook for manufacturing workers feeds into associated service workers around them. Thursday's ISM Non Manufacturing is more pertinent to the greater economy.

read more: http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2011/02/ism-manufacturing-breaks-over-reading.html

As we have seen in other recent reports, prices paid jumped sharply.... as in 2008 this should begin to cut into profit margins. However, backlog and new orders were very promising in this report.
A gauge of prices paid increased to 81.5 from 72.5.

The data has the S&P 500 back to yearly highs as the "correction" (1 day) is already a distant memory. Hope you did not blink. :); February 1, 2011 at 11:02 AM
Anonymous said...: http://us.ishares.com/product_info/fund/distributions/TLT.htm

TLT ex-div 2/1/2011; February 1, 2011 at 11:02 AM
I-Man said...: @ Ahab

Got a feeling that those bullish types will get way louder over the course of this month...

It will be perfect I tell ya, perfect.

Like runnin herds of Mastodon over the cliff.; February 1, 2011 at 11:02 AM
AmenRa said...: Odd thing about EGPT is that the Egyptian stock market is closed. How can it follow if it's not moving? What happens when the market reopens down hard?; February 1, 2011 at 11:03 AM
karen said...: AR, TLT should have an ex div date for end of Jan, too, but i don't see it.. not sure if you saw my 10:57.. that was in reference to TLT.; February 1, 2011 at 11:04 AM
Jennifer said...: Days like today, I have to keep reminding myself, pull backs are an opportunity to enter WITH TREND.; February 1, 2011 at 11:04 AM
Anonymous said...: tlt

Damn Euro dates, that's actually 1/2/2011...still looking for the date, should be soon...; February 1, 2011 at 11:04 AM
karen said...: got it @ 11:02!! still not showing on e*trade.. i believe you tho : ); February 1, 2011 at 11:05 AM
karen said...: uh-oh.. BloombergNow
Storm Cancels Flights, May Set Chicago Record, Ices New York http://bloom.bg/hlTWU2; February 1, 2011 at 11:06 AM
karen said...: i'm telling you.. the ex div on TLT should be at the end of Jan for Feb payment.. maybe it is today and will pay out 2/5 or something..

previous was 12/28 for 1/4/11 payout.; February 1, 2011 at 11:08 AM
Anonymous said...: "Like runnin herds of Mastodon over the cliff."

I like that; February 1, 2011 at 11:11 AM
karen said...: forget tlt.. let's just look at $tyx.. above 46!!; February 1, 2011 at 11:11 AM
I-Man said...: @ Jenn

Watch for an entry low around 10:20 your time on a DIA 1min chart.

But this "advice" is only worth what ya paid for it.

:); February 1, 2011 at 11:12 AM
Anonymous said...: 1301.65 +15.53 (+1.21%)

nothing like getting stopped out on that U*** B***** ..

I'll guess J-, above, was correct..

'Shortin' Season' (SPX estilio) has been Postponed..(due to 'Weather', natch.)

AAIP; February 1, 2011 at 11:13 AM
karen said...: hey, my in-laws had a buffalo jump on their ranch in Montana.. the creek below was imbedded with buffalo bones.. we used to search around for the sleeping circles (of the teepees) too.. my husband even found an arrowhead on one hike.. that was fun!; February 1, 2011 at 11:14 AM
karen said...: way to go EURO! maybe i should trade some of those in today, laughing. ha! or at this rate i'll wait till it is 2 to 1.; February 1, 2011 at 11:15 AM
Anonymous said...: so . . .back to my bullet train joke-

everyone does remember when the Washington Bullets changed their name to the Washington Wizards (because of all the gun violence and murders going on in DC)- right?

just call me the Dennis Miller of the blogging world; February 1, 2011 at 11:17 AM
karen said...: new new 52 week high in JJC.. btw; February 1, 2011 at 11:18 AM
AmenRa said...: EURUSD currently has a daily 3LB reversal up (above 1.3722).; February 1, 2011 at 11:20 AM
Anonymous said...: ahab,

I got that b4, that was funny~

ibid.; February 1, 2011 at 11:23 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Made it to the salt mine...still giggly after watching that great Pro Bowl Sunday. It wasn't until after the game was over that I found out they changed it to touch football rules in Hawaii.; February 1, 2011 at 11:31 AM
Jennifer said...: I-man -- thanks for the pointer, I was away from the computer and missed it.; February 1, 2011 at 11:31 AM
I-Man said...: Its all good...

I'm sure there are some big boys who missed it too, you can count on them shaking out the early.; February 1, 2011 at 11:33 AM
I-Man said...: Just like the jocks who would copy off the nerds in school.

Same shit, different playground.; February 1, 2011 at 11:34 AM
Anonymous said...: thanks hoffer . . .I had no doubt you would get it:-)!; February 1, 2011 at 11:38 AM
karen said...: http://www.benzinga.com/news/11/02/824150/could-gas-go-to-1-50-per-gallon; February 1, 2011 at 11:42 AM
I-Man said...: I was all about Michael Adams in 1991...

Kinda sucks when they change the name of your team when you're 12 years old.

Never was the same.

Go Bullets.; February 1, 2011 at 11:44 AM
karen said...: http://www.forexlive.com/163734/all/copper-flying-aud-playing-catch-up; February 1, 2011 at 11:46 AM
Anonymous said...: I-man-

back in 2nd grade- a friend of mine (Randolph) copied my test to the point that he put my name on his test-

now that's copying a test; February 1, 2011 at 11:47 AM
karen said...: additional link.. world changing if it happened..

http://www.care2.com/causes/global-warming/blog/synthetic-gas-breakthrough-could-eliminate-carbon-emissions/; February 1, 2011 at 11:50 AM
Jennifer said...: Ahab -- now that's funny :-); February 1, 2011 at 11:54 AM
Anonymous said...: so what is everyone using for upside resistance?

double topping?

anyone looking at shorting or inverse ETF's?; February 1, 2011 at 11:55 AM
karen said...: interesting price in both HYG and LQD.. just put the ratio at a two year high.. again, maybe they are ex-div today, too.. in anycase.. that ratio goes much higher and it'll be at 2008 levels pre-crash.; February 1, 2011 at 11:55 AM
karen said...: there we go.. a new new new low in FAZ.; February 1, 2011 at 11:57 AM
I-Man said...: Well, on the Dow, we just completed the full retracement of the entire "scare" from Friday, 1/28...

Hard to open new short positions in the face of that.

Just plug your nose and get long the trend, because it is still higher.

Or step back and wait for the cacophony of bullish hoopla to take us up to 13000, and wait for no fear.

You want to short into complete lack of fear, not the other way around.; February 1, 2011 at 12:03 PM
ben22 said...: ahab,

I'd like to see 1270 crack to get a little short with client money, and then 1250 to get my confidence outfit on that we have re-entered a bear market.

until then I like a lot of cash so that's what I've been doing with client money

will I try and play dick for tick in my own accounts at this point in time

you betcha.....; February 1, 2011 at 12:06 PM
Anonymous said...: WTI lower on the day, JBTFD? This seems like someone else's exit strategy...; February 1, 2011 at 12:08 PM
karen said...: Mr Top Step
HL Camp [11:06:28 AM]: So far in 2011 when the spoos rally, the average move up is 10.30 handles. Today is 11.50 handles.; February 1, 2011 at 12:08 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/02/01/jordans-king-abdullah-dissolves-government/

Jordan's King Abdullah Dissolves Government

...snowball...downhill; February 1, 2011 at 12:09 PM
I-Man said...: I'm with Benji on this one, I think the best trade of the year will be having a shit pile of cash at the moment of the next big low.

There will definitely be some money to be made on the short side (and the long side also) between now and then, but for the I...

Its about buying the next low, more upside there than in a short on the next high.; February 1, 2011 at 12:09 PM
ben22 said...: until those break I still think 1350 is def. on the table, and for those that saw that harmonic pattern from Nic last summer

well, those targets are way above 1350 and that pattern looks very good right now; February 1, 2011 at 12:10 PM
I-Man said...: @ Anon

Every trade is someone else's exit strategy, right?

:); February 1, 2011 at 12:11 PM
Anonymous said...: I-man & b22-

but I want to catch the top just right- c'mon man!; February 1, 2011 at 12:11 PM
I-Man said...: DUDE...

Nic's harmonic pattern has been the dopest shit I-Man has seen.

She had it nailed a LONG time ago...

If only she were still with us to shine her brilliance, I could learn some shit about currencies and crude.; February 1, 2011 at 12:12 PM
I-Man said...: @ Ahab

Yeah, and I want to dunk a basketball...

Someday.; February 1, 2011 at 12:13 PM
karen said...: Weather update: Airlines cancel nearly 5,900 flights as winter storm moves into Midwest http://on.msnbc.com/gzXRNo

a lot less fuel will be consumed, i imagine.; February 1, 2011 at 12:14 PM
AmenRa said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; February 1, 2011 at 12:16 PM
karen said...: I-Man.. it wasn't her's silly it was Harmonic Trader's.. i will forward it to you.. I miss her, too, and she hasn't been tweeting much at all.; February 1, 2011 at 12:16 PM
I-Man said...: JK...

Well, here's the trick to nailing top tick on a high and riding the reversal:

Have enough money piled up in profits from riding the uptrend that you can afford to try to top pick a few times, because it takes even the great PTJ a couple times to nail it right.

The trick is, is your short going to make enough money to cover your failed attempts?

Thats why in daytrader camp they teach you to just ride trends and not call reversals.; February 1, 2011 at 12:17 PM
I-Man said...: Oh...

I thought it was from this page of hers, but I cant find it now.

http://geometricharmony.blogspot.com/

You must be right.; February 1, 2011 at 12:19 PM
AmenRa said...: SPX
Pivot points (monthly)
PP= 1282.13
R1= 1306.63, R2= 1327.18, R3= 1351.68
S1= 1261.58, S2= 1237.08, S3= 1216.53

Monthly 3LB info
high= 1286.12, mid= 1158.42, rev= 1030.71
+14.6%= 1323.41, +23.6%= 1346.40, +38.2%= 1383.69
-14.6%= 1248.83, -23.6%= 1275.84, -38.2%= 1188.55; February 1, 2011 at 12:21 PM
karen said...: Keith McCullough
1305, there it is - now give us a few more bananas here and chase this thing up the tree to 1307; February 1, 2011 at 12:21 PM
karen said...: uup breaking down..; February 1, 2011 at 12:22 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Hell has frozen over. This is Krugman's blogspot post today:

February 1, 2011, 12:08 pm Bloomberg on the Icelandic Miracle
Iceland Proves Ireland Did `Wrong Things’ Sacrificing Taxpayers:

"Today, Iceland is recovering. The three new banks had combined profit of $309 million in the first nine months of 2010. GDP grew for the first time in two years in the third quarter, by 1.2 percent, inflation is down to 1.8 percent and the cost of insuring government debt has tumbled 80 percent. Stores in Reykjavik were filled with Christmas shoppers in early December, and bank branches were crowded with customers."

To be fair, real GDP is still about 14 percent down from its 2007 peak, so Iceland hardly got off unscathed. But the human and social damage appears to have been much lighter than many expected.

...Amazing that this Keynesian would print these words....; February 1, 2011 at 12:24 PM
AmenRa said...: Also
using low (666.79)
1.9656= 1310.64
1.9790= 1319.58
2.000=1333.58

using high
0.8276= 1304.37
0.8408= 1325.18
0.8541= 1346.14
0.8866= 1397.36

That area from 1333.58 to 1346.14 is do or die for either side. IMHO.; February 1, 2011 at 12:27 PM
Anonymous said...: just placed a limit order for SDS at 21.96 for shits and grins-

we'll see what happens- gotta roll for a bit; February 1, 2011 at 12:27 PM
AmenRa said...: Bruce

Copy and save it before Krugman retracts it.; February 1, 2011 at 12:28 PM
Anonymous said...: have any of y'all "shopped" for Residential electrons?

AAIP; February 1, 2011 at 12:56 PM
Anonymous said...: and/or would you take 0.0848 fixed, until 1/2012

or, 0.089 fixed, until 2/2013 ?

ibid.; February 1, 2011 at 12:58 PM
I-Man said...: This move is strong.; February 1, 2011 at 12:59 PM
karen said...: I just realized that my streaming quotes list is wrong for HYG.. it is up today, not down .44 as I am showing it..

anyway, the hYG:LQD correlation to the $spx is still intact.; February 1, 2011 at 1:01 PM
Anonymous said...: AAIP

Most of the options in my neck of the woods are just fixed rate schemes. They door to door sell when prices are at the high. They also have exceptions that allow them to bail if the price does go up.

Bottom line- they are scams. Most of the companies have very dubious roots also...; February 1, 2011 at 1:02 PM
Anonymous said...: Forex & Bonds Last Change Change %
EUR/USD 1.3825 +0.0134 +0.98%
USD/JPY 81.38 -0.67 -0.82%
GBP/USD 1.6141 +0.0130 +0.81%
5-Year Treasury 2.012 +0.06 +3.07%
10-Year Treasury 3.435 +0.057 +1.69%
30-Year Treasury 4.603 +0.032 +0.70%; February 1, 2011 at 1:02 PM
karen said...: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-31/lonely-analyst-warns-of-2015-bank-crisis-amid-upbeat-davos.html; February 1, 2011 at 1:05 PM
karen said...: Bespoke
Barring a big selloff, make it 12 of 14 times that the S&P 500 has closed up on the 1st trading day of the month since the start of '10!; February 1, 2011 at 1:06 PM
Anonymous said...: @13:02

these co.s are licensed by the PUC, their 'tracts seem pretty straight forward, other than 'force majure', and/or "BK", they, seemingly, 'need to deliver'..

ibid.; February 1, 2011 at 1:07 PM
Anonymous said...: AAIP

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/01/business/energy-environment/01gas.html?_r=1&ref=business; February 1, 2011 at 1:10 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-01/cuomo-to-cut-new-york-state-spending-by-8-86-billion-fire-9-800-workers.html

Cuomo to Cut New York State Spending by $8.86 Billion, Fire 9,800 Workers

"While Cuomo’s budget doesn’t propose selling bonds to narrow the deficit, it does call for the state to issue IOUs paying 5 percent interest to its $132.8 billion pension fund, rather than making contributions in cash. The state will save $635 million next year by reducing the cash payments to $1.67 billion."

....Now I admit I may not be as sharp in regards to money as some of those gathered here, but ladies and gentlemen....IOU's to the pension fund instead of cash...Lefty, how do you play the muni-IOU market? Is there money to be made???????; February 1, 2011 at 1:12 PM
karen said...: the negative divergence on RSI is screaming now..; February 1, 2011 at 1:12 PM
Anonymous said...: AAIP

BK seems to be popular among those selling, but that's up here, lots of execs from "former" clecs....; February 1, 2011 at 1:13 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: I think the gathering support for IOU's instead of making difficult political decisions is "interesting"....; February 1, 2011 at 1:17 PM
Anonymous said...: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/01/business/energy-environment/01gas.html?_r=2&ref=business

good story, many of those 'chemicals' in 'hydro-fracking' process are, at the min., a PITA..though, moreso, unnecessary..

ibid.; February 1, 2011 at 1:21 PM
Anonymous said...: Cuomo is a crook. Completely, look at what he accomplished with HUD...And then he paints himself as the wall st cop. He sent out tons of subpoenas, sure, but any perp walks?

His father had the great distinction to have a very successful company formed that made dart boards with his face on them. No one bothered keeping score...

Also, if you are looking for the real seat of power in NYS, it belongs to Sheldon Silver.; February 1, 2011 at 1:22 PM
ben22 said...: "the negative divergence on RSI is screaming now.."

yeah, true, by momentum is really strong, and so there are a lot of mo-mo's that will but this "90% up day"

the more I consider it, 90% down days have carried basically no significance over the last year or so, For every 90% down day we see two huge 90% up days...; February 1, 2011 at 1:24 PM
18 said...: oops, there goes my last week top call 1305.

B22, don't recall that web site but will check it out... thx!

Really thought 1296 would give trouble but now may turn into good support. 1314 might not be out of the question for tomorrow if 1305 holds.

18; February 1, 2011 at 1:26 PM
Anonymous said...: AAIP

Completely off thread-

The gas lobby line of late is that drinking water doesn't occupy the rock they are drilling, they are deeper than it.

Aside from the well casing "mishaps", the "fluid" can only stay that deep for a fixed amount of time, the pressure in the rock eventually will seal off the holes and push the fluid back up. There is already some data coming out on the "rock creep rates".

They are right, water, or fluid, does not occupy rock at that depth, for very long anyway.; February 1, 2011 at 1:27 PM
I-Man said...: "Drinkin Again"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sYPvMLPcJfo

(It's a short one.)

:); February 1, 2011 at 1:33 PM
Anonymous said...: AAIP

Also just heard from an "environmental risk assessment banker" that the banks are beginning to ask about the risk in writing mortgages on these properties.

Always ahead of the curve.; February 1, 2011 at 1:34 PM
karen said...: $tnx spiked higher than last week.. don't know if we should take that as a breakout or wait to see if it moves above 34.74; February 1, 2011 at 1:37 PM
karen said...: crude seems to be moving toward lows of day now.. dumb spike.

i'm curious to see what gold does..; February 1, 2011 at 1:42 PM
karen said...: if we close red on the day.. i will come up with an encore. I-Man will have to be blindfolded..; February 1, 2011 at 1:42 PM
karen said...: Fantastic MacroMan today..

http://macro-man.blogspot.com/2011/02/twenty-riddles-of-sphinx.html; February 1, 2011 at 1:47 PM
Jennifer said...: This is excrutiating to watch. I need more Robitussin.; February 1, 2011 at 1:47 PM
I-Man said...: Anyone who thinks this thang is closing red today is Robi-trippin...

:)

And I wont look this time. LOL.; February 1, 2011 at 1:49 PM
Anonymous said...: J

Maybe it's all a dream.

*A dissociative is a drug which reduces (or blocks) signals to the conscious mind from other parts of the brain, typically to the physical senses. Such a state of sensory deprivation and dissociation can facilitate hallucinations, and dreamlike states of mind which may resemble some psychedelic mind states.

http://www.dxmstories.com/robo_tripping.html; February 1, 2011 at 1:51 PM
I-Man said...: Full Disclosure:

I-Man has never "Robo-tripped."

When the I was a kid, we did that activity the old fashioned way.; February 1, 2011 at 1:55 PM
karen said...: upside down cup and handle on two day, ten min uso chart; February 1, 2011 at 1:57 PM
karen said...: zerohedge
November foodstamp participation 14% increase YoY
18 seconds ago Favorite Retweet Reply

Joe Saluzzi
Green shoots: Food stamps went to record 43.6mm Americans in November says USDA; February 1, 2011 at 1:58 PM
Anonymous said...: ...the old fashioned way....

good ol' LSD-25

I-Bro,

I wouldn't have bet it~; February 1, 2011 at 1:59 PM
karen said...: here is our TA for the day!

http://dealbreaker.com/2011/02/david-tepper-is-cautiously-optimistic-about-the-situation-in-egypt-sundays-game/; February 1, 2011 at 2:02 PM
karen said...: http://www.youtube.com/user/Bloomberg#p/u/1/1GZQuJfPs0M

Shelton Smith Expects IPO Deals at `Discounted Prices': Video
From: Bloomberg | February 01, 2011
Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Kathleen Shelton Smith, principal at Renaissance Capital Corp., discusses the outlook for the initial public offering market. Shelton Smith, who founded the IPO investment firm, talks with Betty Liu on Bloomberg Television's "In the Loop."; February 1, 2011 at 2:04 PM
Jennifer said...: I'm only taking the cough medicine for the cough. I prefer my other medicines watered down by fruit juices and slurped through straws. Meanwhile, the real economy is clearly doing better than I think it is, since I can't get a reservation for 10 people at any restaurant I want to go to on Saturday.; February 1, 2011 at 2:18 PM
I-Man said...: The script just flipped.

Lets see how far they let it correct, we left some tracks back below that might need to be covered.; February 1, 2011 at 2:19 PM
I-Man said...: This is where it gets kinda tricky... tough time of day to read tape, and whereas I've found it true that time can correct price, price cannot correct time.

"But thats the price to pay, for hoping every slip's not a slide."
-fugazi; February 1, 2011 at 2:24 PM
ben22 said...: it's odd that nobody here has yet mentioned that today could be bad for the bulls....just consider why for a moment, it's not hard to see what I'm talking about

and then maybe consider why on a such a strong day, the higher beta NAZ has not eclipsed it's highs from Jan, I suppose it still has an hour and half.; February 1, 2011 at 2:24 PM
Anonymous said...: karen,

have you heard anything about

http://www.burnerbalm.com/

?

ibid.; February 1, 2011 at 2:35 PM
Wurthlezz said...: Better convert all those trading gains into dollars as quickly as possible before it doesn't buy you anything.

UUP down near 1%.

Cotton up 17% in the past month alone.

Grandma will be eating her catfood naked!; February 1, 2011 at 2:38 PM
Jennifer said...: Lots of double tops in the making out there...MOS, SINA; February 1, 2011 at 2:39 PM
Jennifer said...: AAPL quite shy from its highs...; February 1, 2011 at 2:41 PM
ben22 said...: Page 373 of Technical Analysis by Kirkpatrick and Dahlquist:

Exhaustion Gaps
Exhaustion gaps occur at the end of moves but are not recognized at the time because they have the same characteristics as runaway gaps. If a gap is later closed, it is likely an exhaustion gap. These gaps appear when a strong trend has reached a point where greed or fear has reached its apex. Usually they represent the latecomers to the trend who are anxious to jump on or jump off. They can occur on light volume but more often occur on heavy volume.
The sign that such gaps are not runaway gaps is an immediate fill within a few bars of the gap. Remember that runaway gap often occurs mid-stream in a price run. Prices should not immediately reverse and fill a gap unless the end of a run is approaching. Exhaustion gaps are seen at the end of a move and signal a potential trend reversal. usually more evidence of an exhaustion gap is necessary before an action signal can be justified. Sometimes prices reverse immediately, and sometimes they enter a congestion area.

Also, ....is it strange that I've been singing some Bone Thugs all day

Wake up, get up, it's tha first of da month!

1/30-2/1 bullish 25 of the last 26 years with the failure being in 09.

lets see what the rest of the week brings....; February 1, 2011 at 2:41 PM
Jennifer said...: So...is this storm going to keep everyone home tomorrow? Is it going to be one of those "market drifts higher on low volume as most traders stranded by snow" days?; February 1, 2011 at 2:46 PM
Jennifer said...: Would Giles dare to use the suction device if all of his friends are stuck in Greenwich?; February 1, 2011 at 2:47 PM
ben22 said...: I don't know if after a day like today that the market would drift higher on low volume, low volume follow-up would likely be bearish, if only for a day

but I'll probably be stuck home tomorrow from the sounds of it, so maybe I'll get to sit and watch me proven wrong in real time. That would be joyous.; February 1, 2011 at 2:53 PM
Jennifer said...: I'll have to share the computer (translation, no computer for me) and the snow has started.; February 1, 2011 at 2:55 PM
CV said...: Chinese New Year is February 3rd...

Markets won't sell off until... elections; Qe2 is announced; Thanksgiving holiday; FOMC meeting; Santa Claus rally; EOY window dressing; 1st of month momo's, the most important NFP of all time; GDP; the SOTU; Ground Hog Day; the snowstorm passes; the Chinese New Year; the Super Bowl...

Geez... Good thing it's not an "Olympics" year (or maybe that's a bad thing)...

Better announce QE3 soon (or we might break below the CRITICAL 1,300 level)...; February 1, 2011 at 2:55 PM
karen said...: mark.. never heard of it.. and am skeptical of the "dietary energy" aspects of it!; February 1, 2011 at 2:55 PM
CV said...: @ben22

If you're going to be snowed in... You might think about picking up some catfood on your way home...

By the time the store opens up on Thursday, it might have doubled in price...; February 1, 2011 at 2:57 PM
karen said...: this is something to see anyway:

http://www.businessinsider.com/putin-palace-black-sea-2011-2#; February 1, 2011 at 2:58 PM
I-Man said...: If we make a run at 12055... gonna be a deathblow to anyone still short.; February 1, 2011 at 3:00 PM
ben22 said...: I've got two shelves full of cat food (we have a cat remember)

I heard recently MCD is looking to raise menu prices later this year, so I'm pretty much toast, I love those cheesburger buns there, so smooth.; February 1, 2011 at 3:00 PM
AmenRa said...: ben22

This is the 3rd true gap on the SPX. The first was 9/2/10-9/3/10. The second was 9/10/10-9/13/10. True gaps are where there are no overlaps in the candles. So the first is the runaway, the second is the continuation and the third becomes exhaustion. Now I'm not sure if there's a fourth in the same direction that we start over aka 4th=new runaway.; February 1, 2011 at 3:02 PM
Anonymous said...: Egyptian state-run Nile TV says there will be an important statement by President Hosni Mubarak shortly. There are no further details at present.; February 1, 2011 at 3:03 PM
Jennifer said...: Can't see more than 5 houses down the street -- that was fast.; February 1, 2011 at 3:05 PM
Jennifer said...: Stats on how long exhaustion gaps take to fill? I'm not up on my gaps :-); February 1, 2011 at 3:06 PM
CV said...: @AAIP

I've never heard of that stuff, but it ought to be easy to break down...

Green Tea = what it is... fairly healthy... but what that means is that it's better than drinking cokes and stuff like that... Won't kill you and "sounds" healthy... All you have to do is call anything GREEN these days, and you just upped your sales by 150%

Caffeine = Not harmful (unless you over do it)... Stimulates central nervous system, and works on on metabolism by triggering faty acid release... Of course, you don't need a lip balm to ingest caffeine...

Chromium Picolinate also has some properties that, more or less, regulate glycemic spikes...

Hoodia The "flavor of the month" in miracle BUSHMEN herbs... Last decade it was ephederine... Until someone died of a heart attack because he was fat and out of shape and tried to do too much... Then it got banned... Hoodia will eventually get banned as well as soon as some dumb fuck drops dead...

Note: Neither hoodia or ephederine are so bad... it's just these idiots who go overboard with "drop pounds fast" schemes...

I used to use ephederine all the time when I was training for those Aerobic Championships... It was the only way to keep up with the Brazilians... It's banned by FIFA...; February 1, 2011 at 3:08 PM
ben22 said...: Ra,

3:02, thanks for that perspective, we are on the same page. I know exactly what gaps you are speaking of in September without even looking.

now combine that with the A/d line and that's what prompted me to make that post up there, how do we get another runaway gap with that breaking down like it is?; February 1, 2011 at 3:09 PM
AmenRa said...: Uh huh...TNX 34.43, TYX 46.13. Possible mass exit to USTs coming soon (for the yield)?; February 1, 2011 at 3:09 PM
I-Man said...: Well, the charts say any announcement will be positively viewed, but we'll see.; February 1, 2011 at 3:10 PM
ben22 said...: I don't know that there are hard fast rules for the timing of filling gaps, at least that's not something I'm familiar with.; February 1, 2011 at 3:10 PM
I-Man said...: @ Ben 3:09

"now combine that with the A/d line and that's what prompted me to make that post up there, how do we get another runaway gap with that breaking down like it is?"

EMOTIONS.; February 1, 2011 at 3:11 PM
ben22 said...: Leftback is either busy buying more FI today or he's spending his extraction from the Egypt ETF on pizza, or a space heater.; February 1, 2011 at 3:11 PM
Jennifer said...: Poor F. So sad. No one bought the FFD.; February 1, 2011 at 3:14 PM
ben22 said...: I,

here's the thing, I kept looking in the charts and couldn't find an instance of what appears to be exhaustion gap that later turned out not to be at the same time breadth was getting weaker, that makes sense logically that they would confirm each other but I admit I didn't spend hours searching, try an hour.

got any pictures of it? I'm sure we could find one, but also....is that probable?; February 1, 2011 at 3:15 PM
bob said...: USD

Gap filled today between 11/9 and 11/9; February 1, 2011 at 3:16 PM
ben22 said...: I think Karen had it right the more I looked at that chart of F last night, 15 and cosolidation, perhaps lower.

I'll be interested in buying some ford lower, and not that this has anything to do with why I'd do it, but I would state today that at least I'd feel pretty good about buying that stock.; February 1, 2011 at 3:17 PM
AmenRa said...: TRIN & PC ratio seem to be telling shorts to watch their backs. Cold Steel is lurking and waiting to ambush you.; February 1, 2011 at 3:17 PM
I-Man said...: I'd say its more probable that the market continues higher, than that the trend breaks.

This looks a whole lot more like the end of September than April of last year.; February 1, 2011 at 3:17 PM
Jennifer said...: APA back up to its trendline after its little Egypt problem...that was a nice knife catch.; February 1, 2011 at 3:18 PM
AmenRa said...: I wasn't going to put up EGPT later until I looked at it. It has already closed its 2nd gap. Sheesh.; February 1, 2011 at 3:22 PM
I-Man said...: Alright, lets see what this baby has left...; February 1, 2011 at 3:24 PM
karen said...: okay.. not much for uup to hang onto here.. 21.90 coming?; February 1, 2011 at 3:29 PM
karen said...: on USD chart.. we are getting close to the longer term uptrend line from low of 08, touching low of 09, touches low of 2010.. and it's only a tiny bit lower from here.. bingo! 4 taps could work!; February 1, 2011 at 3:32 PM
karen said...: Category 5 Cyclone Bearing Down On Oz
By Jamie Coleman || February 1, 2011 at 20:33 GMT

AUD/USD continues to consolidate gains, holding around 1.0125 after rising as high as 1.0150 earlier. The rally is all the more remarkable in that a huge cyclone is headed toward Queensland which is already reeling from floods of biblical proportions.
1.0075/80 is strong support on pullbacks near-term while the old highs at 1.0257 set on New Years Eve are the topside target near-term.; February 1, 2011 at 3:34 PM
bob said...: K

Please don't mention AUD, I have to learn not to touch that one...; February 1, 2011 at 3:36 PM
karen said...: UUP doesn't have the that uptrend line because it's a $vampire ETF; February 1, 2011 at 3:36 PM
Andy T said...: Pretty bold call here from Glenn Neely:

~~~~~~~~~~~~
Only a few times per decade is a market poised for a drastic change in behavior and trend. The S&P is in such a situation right now, where the size and speed of its future move could be so large and so fast that it suggests a MAJOR, national or international EVENT is looming. Based on timing parameters, this could begin any day from now until about mid February. It could start from either a higher or lower level than the S&P is trading at right now (1303 Mar.). The last time I stated such a thing was on a radio interview with Ike Iossif just 1-2 weeks before September 11, 2001.

Let me make it clear, I have NO IDEA what THE EVENT will be, but it is important to be aware of this possibility and prepare accordingly. Based on wave structure, once the S&P's "bull market" rally is over, a new decline should return it to 11100 (that is a 200 point drop or nearly a 20% decline) in less than 3 months! If and when that occurs, it will confirm the S&P has begun a 1-2 year bear market that will eventually place the S&P back in the 800-900 range!

Glenn Neely
NEoWave, Inc.
~~~~~~~~~~~; February 1, 2011 at 3:36 PM
Andy T said...: That should get some folks to start buying some Puts....; February 1, 2011 at 3:37 PM
bob said...: In order for it to be like sept, there should be a lot of vol/vix buying...

I haven't been paying attention to that lately.; February 1, 2011 at 3:39 PM
karen said...: Andy.. i swear i've been thinking the same thing.. not that i think the news moves the market but that the market move will be attributed to the event.. LOL ..

also, the volatility change alone.. we big % down day.. know our big % up day (2% on naz, nearly 2% spx).. another big % down day rings a bell for trend change.. in my mind.; February 1, 2011 at 3:42 PM
Jennifer said...: Andy -- any chance of Neely going Prechter on us? He's not too wedded to this count?; February 1, 2011 at 3:42 PM
karen said...: $vix in no fear mode.. ben, don't put that shirt on.; February 1, 2011 at 3:43 PM
karen said...: now i'm thinking CA earthquake.. Andy, you've frightened me.; February 1, 2011 at 3:45 PM
karen said...: Keith McCullough
don't tell manic bulls this, but PMI readings north of 60 are never sustained and a huge contrarian signal; February 1, 2011 at 3:46 PM
ben22 said...: Andy,

you weren't supposed to share that with anyone

;-)

ROR!

I hate to say it but I thought the same thing Jennifer did there at 3:42

he sounds just like Bob!; February 1, 2011 at 3:47 PM
Anonymous said...: USDA and HHS Announce New Dietary Guidelines to Help Americans Make Healthier Food Choices and Confront Obesity Epidemic
News release: "Agriculture Secretary TomVilsack and Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Kathleen Sebelius today announced the release of the 2010 Dietary Guidelines for Americans, the federal government's evidence-based nutritional guidance to promote health, reduce the risk of chronic diseases, and reduce the prevalence of overweight and obesity through improved nutrition and physical activity. Because more than one-third of children and more than two-thirds of adults in the United States are overweight or obese, the 7th edition of Dietary Guidelines for Americans places stronger emphasis on reducing calorie consumption and increasing physical activity."
...
http://www.bespacific.com/; February 1, 2011 at 3:49 PM
ben22 said...: oh, and now you all can see, I wasn't playing when I said that GN called for us to wipe out 2010 gains quickly....

I pass my information on legit people; February 1, 2011 at 3:50 PM

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Morning Corner 2.1.11

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