DXY (weekly info)trend=down
low= 78.13
rev= 80.47; mid= 79.31
The 3/09-3/10 trendline is about to get tested. It just happens to meet with the 11/09-10/10 trendline this week. They cross around 76.80. After that it's gravity.
I <3 MEDIA DAY (DJ Steve Porter Mix)
155 comments:
Initial Claims 454K 403K 447K 411K 391K
....Actually it appears the trend is for larger numbers...I think I will take the over for tomorrow..
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-02/oil-trades-near-28-month-high-as-egypt-riots-add-risk-premium-to-price.html
Oil Trades Near 28-Month High as Egypt Riots Add ‘Risk Premium’
...My wife and I were traveling on I-40 this weekend. I filled the Prius up for 16.95. The guy behind me had a full size Hummer, and filled up for 78.95.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/02/business/02auto.html?_r=1&ref=business
Sales of Larger Vehicles Bring Automakers an Upbeat Start for 2011
...June may be interesting...
Chicago area has snow drifts of 5-7 ft.
Futures improve after ADP (with the caveat that ADP can't be trusted).
ROR
Gettin' ready for my Superbowl Picks...
CV
-(new video in thread)-
@Amen (8:19)
Try THUNDER SNOW
http://www.weather.com/outlook/videos/cantore-surprised-by-thunder-snow-19541
We had that last week here... Thunder & Lightning & snow...
I thought when I'd seen a "Snow Bow" (a rainbow when it was snowing at my house in Italy, I'd seen it all)...
Apparently not!
CV-
yeah I saw the lightening and thunder and snow as well- sadly I left my office @ 5:00 due to the volume of snow coming down only to get stuck in nightmarish gridlock traffic-
dude- you ever miss Italy?
@BOH (9:07)
Mostly I miss the TV hostesses...
http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=italian+tv+hostess&view=detail&id=BD18DC09D08F303AF4D3E2BDB1D94B8CF1B9CD7D&first=1&FORM=IDFRIR
Now THAT was some TV worth watching!
yeah . . .I see what you mean-
a step up from a pantsuit in my book:-)!
good morning! I think the USD tapped that line in the overnight.. holding so far..
a little market hysterics for you: Cramer on $NFLX http://bit.ly/ef0qJl says if it went public tomorrow it would be worth twice the current value
Karen
DXY did hit 76.88 and then started pushing higher. Funny what happens when you look over the edge of a cliff.
How many packages of Twizzlers does it take to affect GDP?
http://www.youtube.com/user/MaxKeiserTV
@karen
Well the dollar better collapse soon, or no way we get to DOW 36,000...
CV predicts that the DOW will hit 36,000 the day the dollar goes to ZERO...
That way everyone can go cash in all their long positions, slap each other on the back and brag about what good traders they all are...
Then proceed to go try and buy something useful with those dollars... Like toilet paper... Or, as the case may be, they might just find out that what they have is 36,000 Dow points worth of toilet paper...
The good thing is though, the "taxes" they'd owe on those winnings they could pay WITH the same toilet paper...
Unless somomeone decided to CHANGE THE RULES on that type of accounting...
But they NEVER do things like that, do they?
Well, the Dow aint going to 36000 or the dollar to 0 overnight, or even in the next year, so there's plenty of time to make a living in between.
Best to stay focused in The Now, lest you fall over into fear and doubt.
There is a lot to be thankful for. For all of us.
everyone has to watch at least part of the Keiser link I posted-
too damn funny
my sense of humor is in hiding..
Ritholtz Sees Correction Coming:
http://tinyurl.com/4wjrquu
http://www.complianceweek.com/netting-proposal-would-gross-up-us-balance-sheets/article/195523/
"my sense of humor is in hiding.."
just watch the Keiser video- and you will smile
i did, ahab.. before i posted ; )
Rolling blackouts in Houston today. Awesome.
@ AT
That Sucks!
Not one car has driven down my block. The street still has three feet of snow. Sheesh.
@I-Man (10:04)
I'm not trying to get into your grill here on purpose... But you were the one who jumped on my (10:01) comment which was directed at no one in particular (even though the thought process initiated from an argument about dollar support)...
I'm going to take particular exception to this comment...
Best to stay focused in The Now, lest you fall over into fear and doubt.
I don't get that comment at all???? What the hell is that supposed to mean????... OK, let me use an example:
- A person who spends their whole day TWITTERING and watching DANCING WITH THE STARS, one might argue is "focused in the Now" (no falling over into "fear & doubt" for that person, right?)...
So by extension... that person, who has the zen like discipline to stay in the here and now will never experience pain & suffering in their life...
How much $$ do you want to put on that proposition...
Instead, (to nominate a different candidate)... Let's use CV... According to you, I'm probably the POSTER BOY for fear & doubt (since I'm NOT focused on the here and now, and instead, I immerse myself into fantasizing about potential OUTCOMES, which, by nature, will only manifest at some point in the FUTURE (which, by definition, IS NOT the here and now unless Einstein had it all wrong - which he may have)...
---
I think what I don't like about what you said is that you AUTOMATICALLY made an assumption... That assumption was to say "if not THIS, then THIS" (if not "stay in present", then "fear & doubt")...
So naturally you cast ME as a fearful and doubtful person... NOW THAT IS A LAUGH!!!... I consider myself one of the most CONFIDENT persons on the planet...
I plan, and store, and figure things out NOT because I'm FEARFUL of the future, or what may happen... Instead, I do it because IN CASE what OTHERS would describe as armageddon were to occur, I could probably manage along with little disruption to lifestyle (maybe even help a few people along the way in the process with what I've learned and experienced)... Does that sound "fearful" to you?
Of course, there is EQUAL possibility that in case THE WORST were to happen, I'd end up being rooted out by roaming packs of vandals and be killed... But hey... We all gotta die sometime...
Anyway - I don't want to get into any arguments with you... In my eyes, the FUNDAMENTAL difference between what you said and what I do is the following:
- You are a daytrader and thus be focused on the PRESENT and keep all distractions away from your force field...
- I appreciate that, but that's NOT what I do... What DO I DO?... I simply have my eyes on some nebulous outcome at some time in the mid term & long term future... I want to be able to HEDGE MY BETS to the best of my ability so that what I've come to know as the balance between WORK & COMFORT remains within a certain Ph balance...
That's all... So let's not get those two objectives confused...
& if I make "sarcastic" comments about trading and the markets (to anyone here)... It has mostly to do with my outright incredulity of administrators in politics and banking, that think they have the power to prop up an untenable dynamic, combined with the outright stupidity of mobs of people who are too scared and chickenshit to think for themselves, so they allow the game to go on longer than it reasonably should...
Marc Faber : Bernanke is a liar
Marc Faber on CNBC 02/02/11
Feb. 2 2011 | Inflation is far higher than official statistics reveal, Marc Faber, editor and publisher of the "Gloom, Boom and Doom" report told CNBC on Wednesday, with increases in the cost of living between five and eight percent in the United States and just below that in Europe.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ofeFBZmTAEo&feature=player_embedded
Last little bit...
"here & now"... already happened... It's already been charted, inked, and written in the record book...
So even YOU aren't concerned with the HERE & NOW...
You're concerned with the NEXT 50 (or "x") ticks... That's the FUTURE my friend... :-)
Here's my IMMEDIATE future...
I'm making, FROM SCRATCH, the following pizzas for the SuperBowl...
http://www.cpk.com/menu/pizzas/
---
I think I'll go with:
- BBQ Chicken
- Roasted Artichoke & Spinach
- Pear & Gorgonzola
- Vegetarian with Japanese Eggplant
& Four Seasons
That's the great thing about these pizzas... Once you make the dough right, you can pretty much slap anything you want on there...
cv--
along the line of your point..
"Daytraders" might, just, as well be watching DWTS..
to mean, those that commence with 'normal' day-to-day 'activity', before they have secured themselves against probabilistic "Events", are f****** delusional..
AAIP
Fantastic Faber interview, i thot..
Pear and gorgonzola pizza? That's weird...
@spoonman
Naw - It's GREAT!... I mean, that's one of the CLASSIC after dinner "fruit & cheese plate" combinations that you get served when you go to a decent restaurant (not many of which are found in America)...
Great with wine! :-)
You are worried about an outcome that isnt set in stone, and you have no way to know the future.
Nor do I.
The difference is, I dont worry. This discussion has more to do with faith than it does anything else.
I am simply here to offer a different viewpoint:
Do your best in what you choose to do, it is one of the noblest things a human being can do.
Work for the poor and less fortunate.
Love your neighbor.
Love your family.
Give thanks for life.
I believe beyond all doubt, that this is the secret to a fruitful life on Earth.
CV, you are an amazing person, but being completely honest with you, you focus on the dark side of things too often.
We will continue to disagree, and I will continue to balance out your statements, and you will do the same to mine.
But if you talk shit on trading, and make it sound like a worthless endeavor, for whatever reason, you are going to hear from the I about it.
Sometimes its like you paint this picture of negative, like we're all chained to some perverse reality that Bernanke and the Banking Cartel has contrived and we're all bound to it.
I think thats complete bullshit, and I'm enjoying life.
Regardless of what they do.
Trust me, if they were in control and following some script, then it would be alot easier to make money at this.
Truth is, the script was set long ago, and it doesnt matter a lick what Bernanke says or does over the long term.
The wheel in the sky will keep turning. Enjoy the ride.
I'll have to take your word for it, but I'm skeptical...
@ AAIP
Well, if this is delusional, then so be it.
Do I sound delusional to you, I was under the impression we all played for the same team, and I dont watch DWTS.
I watch reality all day, in the 1min timeframe.
I set my traps, and let the tape walk right into it. Hard to say that is focusing on the past.
Its hard to call daytrading a waste of time, I seem to be doing alright. You think its easy???
CV - If you're looking for more ideas, there is a pizza place across the street from me that makes a chicken/bacon/ranch slice with BBQ chicken, bacon and ranch dressing. Amazing.
@AAIP (11:12)
It's difficult to express (in words), the distinction I'm trying to make...
I'm NOT CRITICIZING "day trading"... Nor am I even beginning to make any correlations based on newsflow, tape ticks, or whatever...
I'm simply saying that while I might AGREE with I-Man with regards to a daytrader requiring some kind of discipline to weed out a lot of noise... I'm ALSO saying that one might, from time to time, make an analysis of what the AGGREGATE of what amounts to coins being picked up off the pavement (whether they be pennies, nickles BITCHEZ, dimes, quarters, halves, dollars, or $20 gold pieces), does over time...
Perhaps it would be easier to take it OUT OF THE CONTEXT of day trading...
I made football predictions all year... Got some right, got some wrong... My plays were PRE-PUBLISHED for all to see and measure...
I've found that over the past 5 years or so (since I've been keeping personal records)... That my results have been similar to what I did this year)...
It's more a HOBBY than anything else (but I could have made a lot of money had I actually played ALL my picks)...
Neither is my goal (making a lot of money, or being RIGHT)... It's more of a science project... The reason it is still so fascinating to me is that after 5 years, I'm still not even CLOSE to figuring out what the "secret sauce" is...
Oh, I have my little "crutches" that I can whip out (when someone needs an explanation), but it's really just WHAT IT IS...
@I-Man
Let me make this clear...
I LOVE reading your "real time" tape comments on this blog... I really do...
I'll tell you why... It provides a CONTRAST that really NOBODY ELSE on this blog provides... That's valuable...
All I want to say is that as much as I respect your "1 minute focus" (and I'm NOT being sarcastic when I say that - I'm serious)... I also HOPE you respect my POV, which is, most definitely NOT the present, and instead, pans out MANY years, and includes multiple possible outcomes...
If I stick to my rules, and trade clean, I am going to make alot of money this year.
Do you think I care what the value of the dollars that get wired into my account each month are going to be in 5 years? NOPE.
I care about making my mortgage payment, paying my student loans, and feeding my family. With what I have left over, I'm giving to charity, and trying to save some so I can eventually move out farther into Jah Country.
I have no control over the value of the USD... but I do have control over my medi.
If you think I'm just "picking up pennies", then thats cool, I'll have fun watching them stack.
If this was such a rigged game, then some 31 year old white rasta sitting in a basement in Washington state shouldnt be able to make a living at it.
ProphetAlerts
Massive call to put ratio on $UUP : http://bit.ly/gi7snu
And try slicing those pears in 3/8" slices and putting them in a smoker for a few hours before you put them on the pizza.
Olive oil, smoked pear, fresh arugula, basil, and oregano... maybe some julienne action on the arugula and some spinach too. Really wanna jazz it up smoke some onion also and put it on there.
I think the dollar is about to go ass kicking.
I'm giving to charity, and trying to save some so I can eventually move out farther into Jah Country.
noble pursuits
@spoonman (11:30)
That sounds pretty good... I might try that... It has the "sound" of a famous sandwich type, the CLUB SANDWICH...
The twist being where you go with the dressings... In imagining it... I might think that I wouldn't combine BBQ chicken & ranch dressing... Probably just use a more SMOKED chicken (no sauce), then use the ranch as normal... Probably could put some avocado slices on that as well...
@I-Man (11:43)
Now THAT sounds fantastic...
Also... What do you do with your steelhead after catching them?
I wish my 1/10th was bigger to give, Ahab.
I'd much rather give it to someone else, then let the Federales take it and mismanage it.
True nobility would be giving it all away. But that takes more faith than I have. :)
gotta roll-
CV- your pizza's sound pretty fantastic
all be good
@I-Man
Also... You got too sensitive about the "picking up pennies" metaphor...
I'd use that despription for anyone who was not moving, at minimum, $100,000 blocks at a time... (and that's based on the likelihood of getting all shares moved at the discovery price of the tick of your desire in, what I consider, illiquid markets)...
So I suppose I needed to qualify that better...
The vast majority of them are released, because I dont keep wild fish. I'd rather catch a Native and release it, then bonk it anyways.
But if they are hatchery fish, they get the wood shampoo.
But generally, you bonk them over the head, cut the bloodline at the base of the jaw, bleed them out so there is no blood in the meat or the eggs if its a hen, and prepare them for the table.
Steelies and fall chinook go to the smoker.
Spring chinook are the best tasting fish on the planet, so they get broiled with some olive oil and fresh herbs. 430 for about 12 min depending on the size of the filet.
Silver salmon, just depends on how well they cut, but normally I smoke it all unless its a springer.
@ 11:56
I did take it personally, you're right.
On that tho, I'm only trading 1 minidow contract at a time, and can bank $500 on a really good day. A really good day.
Anyone could do what I do with hard work, a $5000 account (probably less) and a good internet connection. But it takes hard work... I've logged more than a few 12 hr days.
So, it can be done, if your bad days arent too bad.
My worst day this year I lost $220 and traded like absolute dogshit. But normally, my bad days are alot less than that.
@I-Man
"I'd much rather give it to someone else, then let the Federales take it and mismanage it.
True nobility would be giving it all away."
---
One could theoretically make the jump and say that if one could undertake the process of "living off the grid"... Then you're denying the FEDERALES (to a large extent) their share of the rake...
One could also say that with regards to "giving to charity"... That the ULTIMATE "giving to charity" is living in harmony with nature...
Take only memories, leave only footprints...
close to AMISH-like living (or, the way it was mostly done for centuries before industrialization)...
That's what CV strives for... But that also classifies me as the UNABOMBER...
I'd be MUCH more respected if I was Warren Buffett, or Bill Gates, or Al Gore... Instead, I'm just a loser... :-)
I-Man,
as I was reading your Post, this:
Do your best in what you choose to do, it is one of the noblest things a human being can do.
Work for the poor and less fortunate.
Love your neighbor.
Love your family.
Give thanks for life.
struck me as one way, albeit meta-physically, to "secure(d) themselves against probabilistic "Events"..
and, to try to clarify..
I was speaking of "Daytraders" that "...commence with 'normal' day-to-day 'activity', before they have secured themselves against probabilistic "Events", are f****** delusional.."
and, really, if I thought someone was 'f***in' delusional', outright, it wouldn't take to long for them to understand it..
differently, I'd say as much :)
AAIP
Hey, you're only the Unabomber if you start mailing bombs to people.
And I'm all about living off grid, and the Amish are onto something.
Back to another part, say what ye will about Bernanke, and I'm no fed fanboy, but I'm beginning to see why they are doing what they're doing.
Their grand experiment may even end up saving us, but not by their design.
@ AAIP
THAT, is exactly what I mean.
Metaphysically secure. Safe and sound. Come what may.
As per tape, these are tough days... the ones with no waves. Its really tempting to "do something" when you know you should just chill.
@I-Man
One EXERCISE I always do (in my mind), to decipher the logic in what I undertake is to imagine if EVERYONE IN THE WORLD were engaged in the same activity I was pursuing...
I think that if you imagined that everyone would become DAY TRADERS tomorrow, then the world would fall apart rather quickly...
That's not a stab at daytrading in particular, because the same could be said if everyone would become
- baseball players
- DWTS contestants
- NASCAR drivers
- politicians
- bankers
or whatever...
But it does get your mind trained on the idea that real work naturally PRODUCES or MANUFACTURES a real or servicebale good...
I know that money could be considered a conduit to taking the next step and buying the manufactured goods of others... But I think you get my point...
One of the fundamental problems with the world, in my opinion, is that there have become TOO MANY LAYERS between production and eventual consumption...
That's why this planet has problems such as:
- resource scarcity
- hunger
- pollution
- greed
- wars
Sure, there have been most of those things since the dawn of man, but the fact that they are ESCALATING to unsustainable levels is a product of overpopulation (which is only achieved by these layers of productivity)...
In the end, nature will find a way to take our production efficiency down a few notches...
The same way that a virus will die when the host organism has been completely consumed...
http://www.cnbc.com/
Despite Recovery, Fed May Not End Stimulus Program In June
Just because the U.S. economic recovery is looking up, the Federal Reserve may not stop its bond buying after its latest $600 billion program.
....Actually, they can't. They cannot allow interest rates to rise. The national debt then becomes unaffordable...(I know, everyone here already knows that...)
http://money.cnn.com/2011/02/02/news/economy/interest_national_debt/index.htm
Interest on national debt: 'Skyrocketing' costs ahead
looks as tho $tnx is attempting a breakout today.. and gdx looking very bearish..
must read: http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2011/02/pimcos-bill-gross-february-2011-letter.html
"Today’s rock-bottom yields, however, have less to do with disinflation and more to do with providing fuel for an asset-based economy that promotes unsustainable wealth creation and a false confidence in perpetual capital gains. Real 10-year interest rates fell from over 5% in the early 1980s to just under 1% in recent months and have arguably been responsible for 3,000–4,000 Dow points and 2–3% annual appreciation in bonds over those three decades. Today’s negative real yield on a 5-year TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) is perhaps reflective of a market that has lost its fundamental value anchor. "
By Peter Boockvar - February 2nd, 2011, 12:15PM WATCH YEILDS HERE
We are again approaching a key spot in the 10 yr benchmark note. The yield at 3.49% is at the highest level since Dec 15th on a closing basis and just 3 bps from matching the highest since May ’10. The 30 yr bond yield at 4.64% is now at the highest since late April ’10. Also moving higher are shorter term rates, with the 2 yr note yield and 5 yr yield up 7-8 bps. I mentioned earlier today that short rates in the UK and Germany are rising to the highest since late ’09.
http://pragcap.com/the-secular-bear-market-could-last-until-2020
European Producer Prices Increase the Most Since 2008, Adding to ECB Fears
http://prudentbear.com/index.php?Itemid=57&option=com_content&view=frontpage
Bruce, the Faber interview above was excellent.. as was TraderMark's review of the current Gross Outlook letter.. and do click on that secular bear market chart @ 12:23.. even if you get to them later..
Karen
If QE2 didn't stop rates from rising then maybe QE3 will. Or maybe QE4. Or maybe QE5. You get the drift.
I will get to the Faber interview Karen. Thanks.
Still snowing in East Tennessee.
wow!! The scene along Chicago's Lake Shore Drive, where massive snowdrifts ground everything to a halt.
PHOTO: http://yfrog.com/h4x0kjij
another snow picture.. more visibility:
http://www.businessinsider.com/chicago-snow-picture-2011-2
Karen
All of the side streets and alleys look just like that pic.
http://www.housingwire.com/2011/02/02/cmbs-takes-a-beating-as-delinquencies-reach-record-high
http://www.gasfrac.com/investorpresentations.aspx
should be of interest..
also, 1:21PM EST: 2.25 +0.20 (9.76%)
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BOE.V&ql=1
this little Co. should do well..
AAIP
"If QE2 didn't stop rates from rising then maybe QE3 will. Or maybe QE4. Or maybe QE5. You get the drift..."
Which statement is correct?
- "Subprime is contained"
- "We will not monetize the debt"
"catfood bitchez!"
IMHO...
All this "debt monetization" is a simple exercise to kick the can down the road as far as possible (which is OBVIOUS in of itself)...
But why? Why embark on a course that is unsustainable without life support?
Answer...
Because in the process... The banks have the power to print themselves as many IOU's as they desire and give them to their friends...
You'd better start wrapping your thoughts around the idea that WITH those IOU's, they're using as many as they can to buy REAL GOODS...
Meanwhile... Others, are busy watching the electron movements of the spot prices of all the individual items on display in the KICK THE CAN DOWN THE ROAD game...
In the end... When it is finally time to pull the plug on the operation... The IOU printers will still have what's valuable (because they would have slowly & incrementally accumulated what they needed [goods] using the IOU's they printed for themselves)...
The rest? Will have IOU's (redeemable for nothing)...
Therefore, I think it might be a good idea to accumulate a few goods along the way...
"Heliopolis is not like the rest of Cairo. It has grand houses and leafy boulevards. Here the police are still welcomed on the streets. This is the home of Egypt's ruling elite - people like Dr Magid Boutros - a close adviser to Mr Mubarak. He says the president is now determined to stand and fight: 'He's an army man. Military commanders, if they abandon their posts, they are shot.' Outside on the street I was confronted by members of Egypt's ruling class - educated, articulate and angry. As we returned from Heliopolis our car was forced of the road by another group of angry men. They handed us over to the dreaded Mukhabarat - the secret police in their brown leather jackets. We were handcuffed and blindfolded and taken to an interrogation cell. Three hours later we were released onto a remote backstreet. The regime is hardening its attitude to the protestors and to the foreign media. Egypt's ruling class is fighting back."
whats up squad, the storm missed DE, good for us, too bad for the rest of you.
"If QE2 didn't stop rates from rising then maybe QE3 will. Or maybe QE4. Or maybe QE5. You get the drift..."
Quick comment: If the purpose of QE is to monetize debt (not a swap of existing debt for new debt money, like changing out MBS in exchange for notes which was done in the mid 2009, I'm talking real monetization like what QE2 is) then this statement can't ever make sense.
Monetization in the true sense is inflationary (an increase in money supply + credit) yes?
so find me a period of time when interest rates dropped during inflation. Good luck with that. Simply put, QE if it "works" really can't have the impact of lowering rates while it also serves to egg on the bond vigilanties.
As far as the statement 'we won't monetize' well, it's been a lie for coming up on 3 years this August based on when the first real monetization started in 2008, however, I spend time not focusing on the lie but on this question:
Can they monetize all the debt?
Thus far, it's been 5% what they have done, and that's using a low estimate for the debt side of the ledger. You can all plainly see the problems already, at a 5% monetization. So, I'm thinking the question shouldn't be whether or not they will monetize, cause they already are, it's whether or not they can do the rest of it, the 95% still left?
Why do you think it is well publicized that Blythe Masters & JPM do cartwheels trying to hold down silver prices?
Answer...
NOT because they'd be exposed by their net short position... Instead... Because of TIME... The "longer" the belief in FIAT is sustained, the longer time there is to incrementally accumulate what might be the backbone of some future world where fiat & fractional reserve don't exist...
The US government plays right into their hands with this... The greater the DEBT SERVICE needs, the better because it means more debt notes can be put into play...
Use them to fill stacks of pallettes of STUFF in the basement for when TSHTF and the governments themselves collapse...
Then come along to the NEW CHUMPS (Hey... So you want to start a government), and say "looky here at all this STUFF we have - you'll be needing some if you want that government of yours to get off the ground floor - little START UP CAPITAL for ya - whadda ya say?"...
Well, lets see a list.
Gotta be more on there than a few bags of rice and some EVOO...
I'm inclined to think fish hooks and shotgun shells. But I already got a bunch of seed, and a pair of overalls.
Got me a still and a banjuh too.
If only there were a better way to store gasoline... thats the tough one.
Havent found a chainsaw that runs on biodiesel yet...
If I had a jetboat, I'd want my motor to run on piss, but the science isnt there yet.
Can they monetize all the debt?
That's not what would be needed...
All they really NEED to worry about is monetizing the DEBT SERVICE...
It's like any individual who has loans that they likely can't pay back in their entirety based on their income...
But it doesn't stop them from trading in their old car for a new one (as long as they can present the MIRAGE that they can make the monthly nut)...
Thus, the game can go on for a long time...
And the NEW DEBT (as we have seen), is treated as MONEY by the players who get their hands on it...
And as we have seen, it flows in to put a bid under asset prices... This shows up as INFLATION to the poor chumps who are just trying to eek out a living...
So I don't need to see historical examples of anything... Or, if you want historical examples... First show me a historical example of market effects of QE1, 2, 3, 4 +++ in a fractional reserve fiat regime...
Then, perhaps, one could get to modeling...
I left off the {/sarcasm} tag...
CV,
a few things
the game has gone on for roughly 90 years now, so the idea "it could go on for a long time" isn't really relevant as a reason why it will continue. This is what far smarter than me hedge fund manager referred to as the "Keynesian endpoint".... while in theory your argument might hold water, which is that "they" can just kick the can down the road forever (another discussion in itself because I don't believe that statement is factual), in reality, we know this end has occured many times in the past in various places. Some of us believe that end point is very near. Most people do not. I guess you are in the latter camp. If you choose to believe you don't need to see historical examples that's your prerogative.
Second, comparing an individual's finances to the federal reserve banks is a common and incorrect mistake so the comparison to debt service is not entirely accurate or appropriate. Further, what you describe requires willing borrowers that use credit to service other credits. Not only does the data indicate we don't have willing creditors, it should go without saying that the pool of willing AND able borrowers, despite extremely low rates, has shrunk to a small fraction of its size since 05/06 and I'm thinking I don't need to explain the reasons why.
Third, surely you are joking with this
"First show me a historical example of market effects of QE1, 2, 3, 4 +++ in a fractional reserve fiat regime..."
because I know you know that Japan is a real place, where they really have done several QE's but it never worked because central bankers there were stopped long before they even monetized half of the debts.
look, I'm not bringing this up to start an argument with you, so I'll probably not respond to any further comments on it, I can just continue to ask myself the question as I continue to keep an open mind to what can occur. Even if I wanted to go along with you, that "all they need to worry about is the debt service" well, I've got news for you on that front, they still haven't done even close to enough to make that work either, so my question stands and would just be stated another way.
here we go, $indu breaking out on the ten min chart!
What I'm trying to say is that I "used" to think this was an ALL OR NOTHING game...
Regular accounting, whereby if you went over your limit, the system would IMPLODE and the result would be DEFLATION...
While I'm still convinced that that will be the eventual outcome... The "tricks" that are being used to suspend that inevitable process have taken on a life of their own...
So even though it's TECHNICALLY not the case that the so called "new money", is, in fact "money" (because you & I know, it's actually just debt heaped upon debt)...
Nevertheless, it's being TREATED as money in the real world...
It's like when you play MONOPOLY, and after awhile it's just you and another player... You own all the properties (and have even taken the mortgaged properties from the other player as compensation for debts)...
At this point... You have all the properties, and can't even technically buy any more properties (because you're not receiving cash payments from the chump who keeps landing on your properties with 5 hotels on them - unless he's a lucky stiff who keeps landing on Community Chest and gets a "bank error in your favor" every time, or otherwise lands on GO, FREE PARKING, and the occasional stint in JAIL...
So what do you do?
You decide to make some new rules... You say that every time from now on that they land on your property, in lieu of PAYMENT, you can procure the same "mythical" amount from the bank (which has run out of bills), to FINANCE the 7 hotels you now want to buy for Boardwalk...
This could go on as long as anybody wanted (in Monopoly), or, until someone got tired of playing the game... Since Monopoly is just a game (which you're probably playing while eating pizza & drinking sodas in a nice warm rec room), nobody gets hurt...
In REAL LIFE, the same game could "theoretically" be played... But the problem is that all the CONJURED money (debt), would naturally find it's way into making the cost of something go higher...
It wouldn't matter to you because you're the fat guy with the top hat... But when the cost of things started riots in Tunisia, which spread to Egypt, Jordan, Yemen, and on down the line... Then there would be problems...
So... In the never ending INFLATION vs. DEFLATION debate... all anyone needs to worry about is "Which one will come first" (because they BOTH will manifest eventually)...
I now believe that the INFLATION is the first to come... Sure, we'll see LITTLE BOUTS of deflation (like steam from a pressure cooker being released) in the process...
We won't see real deflation until a complete monetary collapse... It is obvious that central banks will ATTEMPT to forestall that for as long as possible...
Either way, one ought to become a hoarder... In the inflation periods, to mitigate prices, and in the final DEFLATION scenario, because the goods will no longer be abundant in local markets...
dia volume is just over 3 mil shares. avg volume about 10.5 mil shares.
spy vol 82 mil shares so far.. 1/2 of normal.
Karen,
I stated yesterday that after the huge green day if we had weak volume we'll be red.
Who should I buy a burger for at the close if I'm wrong?
Any takers?
the Qs are also at nearly half volume..
ben, i know! it's because of the weather!
Less than 1 in 200 got these 6 questions correct. Ben, I see why you have problems.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Why-Were-Not-Wired-for-usnews-3319848969.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=
Why We're Not Wired for Successful Retirements
Here are the six literacy questions. Nearly no one got all six right--68 out of nearly 14,250 tested, or fewer than 1 in 200. The fourth question was the most challenging. See how you do (the correct answers follow):
"all they need to worry about is the debt service" well, I've got news for you on that front, they still haven't done even close to enough to make that work either"
I'd disagree with that statement...
You yourself pointed out the Japan scenario (which has been going on for how long now?)...
Again, we're arguing the SEMANTICS of what the end game WILL BE... or, HOW IT IS PLAYING OUT AT PRESENT...
I have no argument with you that it will eventually collapse (maybe even tomorrow)...
Why is Japan even still viable under all this???
Answer: Because nobody is interested in folding up the Monopoly board it seems (as in above scenario)... Got a better answer?
So I have no idea on how long these things can last... All I know is that it's a FAR better use of my time to learn how to do some basic things, and produce some basic items, than it is to immerse myself into the prediction game as to WHEN the Monopoly board is actually folded up...
Whether that WHEN is produced via mutual agreement, or a gust of wind coming along and blowing all the pieces off the board...
@Bruce
I'm floored that ANYONE would get ANY of those responses incorrect...
It's just basic math...
...and therein lies CV's problem...
WANTING to think that people are actually intelligent...
Breakouts start from shakeouts... I'm calling not so fast on this one.
10 dow pts lower should shake out the early birds, and then we'll see...
12055 still needs to get tagged on the upside.
Alot of times these late day falsies after quiet range create the perfect dump setup.
I mean... SERIOUSLY... The questions were so easy, I began thinking of them as TRICK QUESTIONS...
Like... The first thing I said to myself was...
"Is the currency of Chile actually a PESO"...
ROR
Compound Interest: Assume that you have $200 in a savings account, and the interest rate that you earn on these savings is 10 percent a year. How much would you have in the account after two years?
ROFR.
Bruce,
biggest challenge for someone like me is trying to explain to the average man or woman why they should deliberately put on hedges in their account or "buy insurance" to protect themselves knowing perfectly well the "insurance" could become worthless.
The average person hardly ever makes any money in the market "over the long term" exactly because they don't do this type of thing enough.
but really, you have no idea at all what it's like trying to explain a hedging strategy to the John and Nanc E's of the world, the concept is just way way over the top for most of them, and the best part is you get treated like you are hurting them when in fact what you are trying to do is keep them for having a loss from which they can't recover.
CV:
I know. How can anyone plan their investments, much less retirement if they missed any of those 6 questions. No wonder people are not worried about massive federal debt.
(Here is where I get on my balanced budget amendment soapbox as the cure of all things evil, but I will not do that today as I am happy as a clam....!)
@I,
Not sure if you trade like this these days but do you see a triangle on YM, forming today?
Ben,
My SIL until this year did tax returns for high wage earners in California. She said that turning one's financial investments over to an advisor, now that she sees the returns herself, is a sure way to lose money...generally...
However, Ben, I realize you ain't the usual...
Uh-huh...
The pennant looking thing on the 5min?
Its kept me sitting still basically all day except for a few range trades within the pattern.
If you have a chart up, I have a bid at 11998, and my target is up at 12055, but depending on time, a better target would be about 12020.
I have already shared before my adventures in trying to talk MD's out of the tech bubble in the spring of 2000. Greed was the cause, although at the time the rationale was "more time to run on the bull"....
The risk:
This was all a setup for a big dump into the close. But support intraday at 998, 984, 973, and big one at 960.
(throw an "11" in front of all those numbers)
"why they should deliberately put on hedges in their account or "buy insurance" to protect themselves knowing perfectly well the "insurance" could become worthless."
Philosophically - Muslims consider "insurance" to be a form of "gambling" (which is a POV that I can actually relate to)...
So one of the "odd" aspects of OBAMACARE is that it naturally would impose a LAW on something that went against Sharia Law...
In many instances, in this country, local governments have been TOLERANT to Muslims by allowing them to sidestep the laws of out country with the laws of their faith (which, in of itself, goes against the separation of church & state distinction - but has been ignored in the name of trying not to rock the boat)...
My point is, it would be INTERESTING to see how and if Muslim Americans would respond to Mandatory Healthcare [which is basically Healthcare INSURANCE)...
if no one wants to buy or sell i guess prices can just stay right here.
where are the HFTs? in hibernation? even C is nearly 1/2 volume.
Everyone wants someone else to make a move, and then we'll just follow.
Someone either has to show their cards, or make a mistake, before the players will commit.
siri is triple volume however, lol
I think the way its gonna go is anyone who bought after the move you noted above Karen, is going to get shook out, or scared, before the next big bid like the one above.
Their stops, will trigger my bid.
Chinese New Year tomorrow...
We should go sharia, the wasps caused the GFC.
Mr Top Step
$ES_F #futures the volume is so low here ( no retail stops ect) the algo's cant kick in no programs like it or not means no trade
Got a song for that too (Chinese New year)...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d2FrrzLUkoU&feature=related
@Anon
Sharia is fine with me...
I doubt the ladies & gays would be very happy...
I was wrong, obviously... but at least I knew the risk, and being wrong only cost me 7 ticks.
Anonymous said...
We should go sharia, the wasps caused the GFC.
...Didn't she have a little friend named Lamb Chop?
let me attempt to decipher that:
futures. the volume is so low here. no retail stops etc. the algos can't kick in. no programs, like it or not, means no trade.
Karen,
Read the Gloom B and D interview....loved the Bernanke is a liar part....
The picture of the stranded Chicago cars...hard to wrap your mind around it in 2011...
CV,
I said I wouldn't respond but of course I will anyway
What I would appreciate is if I could have a convo with you about this without you screaming semantics every time I comment with actual definitions and real figures on this topic, it's bullshit as far as I'm concerned, of course, I'm sure you feel differently.
the numbers relating to notes and debts need to be known, if you want to show me how the just over $2 trillion that the Fed will have monetized by June of this year, almost none of which was turned into new loans, on top of what was already in circulation is enough to service the debts which when all included could be argued to be as high as $900 trillion then show me how it works. Show us all. I can't make the "simple math" work.
If you want to spend your time learning basic things that you find more important that's great dude, I certainly have no problem with it, you can do whatever you like. I've chosen to spend my time understanding how the Fed manufactures money and what their limits are, learning the right ways to protect the people that have hired me and myself from the potential of collapse, and finally understanding the math of it all so that I don't have the retarded blind faith in the Fed's that most people do which will have them holding on until a point when it is far too late to do anything.
To each his own.
Couldnt have said it better I-Self, Karen.
Wouldnt surprise me to see them go bid crazy now, tho.
Its a dirty game.
hahaha.. i had to goog GFC..i thot the WASPS on Wall Street were a minority..
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-02/vix-sinking-to-three-year-low-is-fastest-growing-u-s-bet-as-fear-subsides.html
give his a skim and check out the commenters:
http://bostonreview.net/BR36.1/rosen.php
Got back in a second ago, sometimes they just dont want anyone else to play too.
Well, until their bid is filled anyways... ;)
More on what money-management powerhouse PIMCO is really saying behind closed doors on the Whitney Muni Bond report: http://fxn.ws/eyDoqT
"She said that turning one's financial investments over to an advisor, now that she sees the returns herself, is a sure way to lose money...generally..."
@Bruce,
got mixed feelings about this comment. What I'm curious about is how she knew what anyones total portfolio returns were by looking at the realized gains and losses on the 1040? Especially if they were high net worth, in which case losses may be triggered by an advisor on purpose. There's a real fine line with all of that in fact, I've had clients that ended up selling out poor investments under my name that resulted in a realized loss but they bought with another rep and simply transfered the assets to me before they were sold, but the loss shows up under me, a CPA would never be able to tell this just from the return.
to your general point though, yeah, tons of bad reps out there, but a lot of these reps would argue with you that they weren't even really managing the money, it was the shitty mutual fund manager's fault!
I think the best and surest way to lose money at some point in markets is getting involved with them
;-)
Oh well, got back 5 of the 7, and calling it a day.
As long as you can make a few bucks to cover the bills on a shit day like today, consider it a WIN.
A true win woulda been going fishing though, dammit.
@I,
re, triangle, thanks.
I was thinking when I wrote that if I was in your shoes I might have not done anything today with that kind of development forming, just wasn't sure if you actually went a full day without trading if something like that was going on.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/€40-billion-deposit-flight-december-brings-total-irish-bank-run-€110-billion
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/02/fannie-and-freddie-now-send-taxpayer-cash-directly-to-wall-street/
ultimately the taxpayers are on the hook for every bad mtg in america.
BR, talking on the backdoor bailouts being given the banks..
maybe they should all be long NLY then....
if you are going to be the one that effectively backstops all the MBS you may as well get paid something for it.
@ Ben
You're right, I probably shouldnt have done shit.
My time is worth more than the $15 net I made today, hence the fishing comment.
Sometimes you can do good on quiet days like today, like the two range trades I made, but it only takes one or two mistakes to wipe it all out.
I bet the best traders at my firm did not make a trade today.
Topstep's post said it all, ie: no waves, no surf.
@ben22
Semantics! Semantics! Semantics!... There - just saying it a trillion times to piss you off...
---
I don't know why we keep argiung this...
I'm not calling into question your studies, your knowledge, your ability to do math, see patterns, or service your clients...
I even AGREE with you, 100% that all central bankers & economists are a bunch of sophmoric imbeciles (with regards to the application of their theoretical work)... I can't call them total idiots though because WHO KNOWS, some of them might actually be handy with farm implements, and/or could tie a square knot or start a fire with a flint...
Maybe SEMANTICS is a bad word... Maybe I should choose another one...
All I care about is PRACTICE & APPLICATION (to real people in real life)...
I'm not the type that get something and reads the entire instruction manual before putting it together... I look at it, and just figure it out...
I don't need 5 pages of an instruction manual to tell me how to dig a hole... I don't need to read Sir Isaac Newton to tell me that water flows downhill...
So what I talk about... I talk about from "observation"... What have I observed lately?
- That prices at the supermarket are rising
- That the stock market is rising
- That the dollar is testing it's lows (and may break to new lows)
- That people all around the world are rioting
- That the US (and many other countries have unsustainable debt loads)
- and many other things
...and yet
The transaction system muddles on...
How can that be?
Then I ask (which I have NO ANSWER for)...
- What if FASB rules had never been changed?
- What if "QE's" had never been announced?
- What if POMOS weren't a part of the system?
- What if there were TRADERS on the floor of the NYSE (and there were no electronic trading)?
Would we still be in a scenario where we were "just muddling along"... Or, would the system have collapsed (and ARGUABLY, rebuilt) by now?
My speculative answer to the above is...
"Yes" the system would have broken down by now... And humans would have come in and resurrected it in some other way (probably only to be eventually RE-ABUSED in the future - but we could leave that discussion for a later date)...
So the ONLY reasonable explanation is that these "tricks" (while vehemently despiseable) ultimately did have SOME EFFECT...
That "effect" has NOTHING TO DO with "saving" anything (which it WON'T ACCOMPLISH in the long run)... But the effect is to suspend time... I can't ignore that...
It's an EMPEROR WITH NO CLOTHES situation... In which we find ourselves in that awkward period of seeing a naked Emperor, but aren't willing to come out and say so... So in THEORY, the game hasn't changed yet...
Or what the hell do I know...? Maybe well find out that it's a situation that the CLOTHES HAVE NO EMPEROR in the end...
:-)
MUNIS: FLURRY, BLIZZARD OR AVALANCHE?
“No snowflake ever falls in the wrong place.”
- Ancient Zen Proverb
http://www.hedgeye.com/unlocked_ideas/11567
"I think the best and surest way to lose money at some point in markets is getting involved with them
;-)
Best comment of the day!
Nickles bitchez! - ror
CV,
lol, it's all good dude
@I,
well, just think, $15 still gets you a lot of swedish fish and those taste way better than catfood.
anyway, if that triangle does really break, you should be able to catch a lot of ticks anyway.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ZNC.TO&ql=1
re: program buying/selling
I've noticed for months now that the guys at top step are always looking for areas where the programs would kick in
so, bring that full ciricle
if that's how things are being traded then another flash crash isn't just possible, it is probable.
@ BnT
Yall ever do any shed hunting out there this time of year?
The blacktails are dropping theirs now, and the elk will be later this month.
I love me some shed hunting...
Its more than probable... thats whats scary about it.
More like a pack of wild dogs than a market, but who's to say what a market is?
@ben
We got I-Man for the fish... "Technically", we have CV too (tilapia)... But that still grosses karen out, so I'll just use their poop for plant fertilizer until karen tires of eating scorpions & arugula...
Gotta go peeps... Sorry for all my diatribes this afternoon... What was an particularly UNBUSY day, is now getting busy for CV...
Ben,
You are the man, and I don't associate what I see in your thoughts with bad money management advisors. But there are PLENTY of them out there, including those who would cold call you in the office from NYC just to run down their list of names...
Most advisors are too positive for too long. Having had two 50 per cent corrections in a decade, who can blame the elderly and the newbies in the workforce for being skittish of the equities market...
"I'm not the type that get something and reads the entire instruction manual before putting it together... I look at it, and just figure it out.."
CV,
this is where perhaps you and me are completely different, I AM "that guy"
I figured long ago that I agreed with the concepts that
1. No man is an island and
2. As iron sharpens iron so one man sharpens another
so I enjoy reading ALL the pages of those Isaac Newton types, even if I already know some of the stuff.
Bruce,
Thanks but that's too much, I've got a long ways to go to become the man. A really long way. Thanks though, that was a real nice thing to say.
Also, I have to admit that my first year in the business I did a lot of cold calls, as in, roughly 1,000 per week, every single week. I hated doing it but it was my job. I had no clients and didn't know anyone in DE outside the people I worked with and my wife/gf at the time, they literally handed me a stack of papers with 1,000 names on it that had requested info from our company, many of them having done so 5-6 years prior, and said: go get on the phone. Every single night for a year straight from 6-9 pm, and when I wasn't in a classroom during the day I was on the phone making more of those calls. Of the 1,000 calls you tried to set 10 appointments each week, of the 10, you were lucky if three showed up to see you and of the three maybe 1 would hire you. Maybe.
I'm beyond happy to say that I haven't made a cold call now in about 7 years.
and yes, I totally agree many advisors hang on too long, and what you'd see from the inside is that the companies they represent encourage them to do exactly that, but that's not an excuse. This also happens because markets in the US, despite nasty corrections, have been up on average about 73% of the time if I'm not mistaken, so the problem with being anything else is that it introduces tremendous career risk.
the stuff Jeremy Grantham says about this feels like he's repeating my day to day to me sometimes, he couldn't be more correct but I finally started to realize not very long ago that sometimes when you are trying to do your best for people you just have to live with that career risk and if people leave, then that's what they do, don't get emotional about it.
I man:
I am probably going to take up bow hunting again this fall....to be perfectly honest, I don't care much for venision and would rather have a steak anytime. But my wife wants me to put a deer in the freezer for her, and I will do it.
I would much rather quail or squirrel hunt with dogs or hunt turkeys.
...But my wife told me last week after 38 years of marriage that she loves the way my hands feel on her, and buddy, that made my week...I will get a deer this coming fall...
Yeah, I dont actually hunt for deer and elk... just ducks, but I do think its cool as hell to find their shed antlers out in the woods.
Its like hiking, with a nice bonus.
Good stuff...
If I did hunt for them though, it sure as shit would be with a bow...
BinT
http://oko-organic-clothing.blogspot.com/
Must be pretty close to your neck of the woods.
I think I know that chick, Mark... LOL
A lot of peeps like that in Ashevegas.
The I has roamed all the hills and hollers of Western NC along the TN/VA border...
Thats prime Dreadneck Territory.
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/02/us-dollar-index-is-at-key-support.html
I-Bro,
I didn't that, but, yes, plenny o' "Mountin' Wimmin" up in them there hollers..
AAIP
Post a Comment