AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Note to Bears...stop sending cubs to fight with a seasoned Bull.

Creditcane™: I was forced to tap out. Thank you NFP for being so bad that everyone wanted to discredit you.

SPX
Bullish short day. It also looks like a hammer but tail is too short. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Made a new 0.0% retrace. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1276.34). QE2infinity.



DXY
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above the 14.6% retrace (77.54). Still below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 78.13).



VIX
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 17.63). Still out of the "no fear" zone. Currently has a monthly 3LB reversal.



GOLD
Spinning top day (which also formed a bearish thrusting). Midpoint above EMA(10). 0.0% retrace holding. Held above the upper trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1319.80). Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Approaching 1.3506 (the 50% retrace). Still above all SMA's. Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 1.3813).



JNK
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Closed above its 50% retrace (40.47). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 39.63).




10YR YIELD
Bullish long day. Made a new 0.0% retrace at 36.66. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 34.55). It doesn't stop at 36.00 so The Bernank is having a sleepless weekend.



TLT
Bearish long day (failed to confirm inverted hammer). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. Way below lower trend line. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 90.80). Currently has a monthly 3LB reversal (down).



EEM
Bearish short day (also forming a rising three method pattern). Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's except the SMA(144). Held its 23.6% retrace (46.42). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 47.25).



EGPT
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. Back below its 50.0% retrace (18.26) of the recent down move. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 16.22). Now, what happens when the Egyptian market reopens?



S&P TMI
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Held lower trendline. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1445.10). TMI (total market index)= S&P 500 + S&P Completion Index.

LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Bond Report 2.4.11 - The Dash for Trash

Well, we have talked about the possibility that we would see an 88 handle on TLT, and here it is. If there was carnage at the long end, the rest of the curve was almost as bad. It was like an abbatoir in Ts.

But there was a clear difference between today and yesterday, when all FI was being tossed out the window in a sort of bond capitulation. Today, credit investors were snapping up HY and dodgy munis at the expense of IG, MBS and lower yielding munis.

Corpies: LQD -0.31%; AGG -0.34%; JNK 0.37%; HYG 0.44%
Govies: TLT -1.01%; IEI -0.42%; TIP -0.56%
Munis: IQI 0.77%; MUB -0.24%
Mortgages: MBB -0.18%
Hedgies: TBT 2.00%

It was a good day for our junk (smirk) but not for the rest. In fact we had a bit of a Cold Steel day. We noted the blood on the floor, and added another 6% to our fixed income today, adding 1% of TLT and 5% of AGG. So we are now:

AGG 20% TIP 5% TLT 9.5% JNK 9% LQD 4.5% (48% total)

We are still long US equities 15% and short EMs 19%.
Cash is Trash here now that the bond "bubble" has unwound.