TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Corner 1.28.11

Morning Corner 1.28.11

AUDJPY (daily info)
trend=no
direction=up (2 bars)
high= 0.8268
rev= 0.8007; mid= 0.8138

The AUDJPY cross is trying to hold the lower parallel trend line and the SMA(89). Something has to give one way or another.

EURJPY (daily info)
new high 1.1367
trend=up
high= 1.1367
rev= 1.1217; mid= 1.1317

EURJPY challenging the SMA(233). The strength in the EURUSD is behind this move. The Japanese downgrade should have sent the yen lower and would have made the move in the EURJPY even more pronounced. But the yen barely moved. Go figure.

ES (15min info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=up (2 bars)
high 1297.50
rev= 1291.50; mid= 1294.50

The SMA(13) is currently resistance. Need a clean break higher to entice more bulls for the slaughter.

IWMSPY (daily info)
-no change ( above mid)
trend=down
low= 0.6026
rev= 0.6181; mid= 0.6104

Somehow, someway liquidity has found its way back into the market. As I'm wanting and waiting for a correction this additional liquidity is not helping.

This is what needs to happen...

with this playing in the background...

323 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 1 – 200 of 323 Newer› Newest»

Bruce in Tennessee said...: Karen,

Sorry you were disappointed with True Grit. I think it is probably one of the 10 best films I have seen.

I suppose I side with the Greeks...I like films with some element of tragedy. They seem to speak of the real human condition and I tend to enjoy films that I remember for years.

Let me give you the web address of Rotten Tomatoes. I use it all the time to cull the pictures I like to see, and you can read the review of any of the hundreds of reviewers they use to compile their up or down rating.

Again, sorry you were disappointed. Don't be mad.

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/; January 28, 2011 at 7:13 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: I would also say I am a fool for almost any plausible science fiction. My library is full of books about astrophysics and science in general. So maybe I am not the best movie reviewer for you.; January 28, 2011 at 7:22 AM
Anonymous said...: http://club.ino.com/join/

30-day Free Trial..; January 28, 2011 at 7:29 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://money.cnn.com/2011/01/28/news/companies/paulson_hedge_fund/index.htm

Paulson profits $5 billion in 2010: Report

...I have it on good authority that Paulson comes to this very web site every morning to get his investing ideas for the day...; January 28, 2011 at 7:54 AM
Anonymous said...: ...35 years amortization being removed, Maximum amortization will be 30 years.
This will increase debt service ratios and reducing the maximum a customer is eligible to purchase.

VERY IMPORTANT!
No news on deals currently approved if the rules will apply if the mortgage closes after March 18th, I suggest anyone looking to refinance or purchase to get an application started and completed before March 18th. Existing mortgages approved I recommend getting me all outstanding conditions met so that we can ensure you do not get effective.

If you have been thinking of buying a home, NOW is the time to do it as there will be less people qualifying to buy a home after the March 18th, 2011 expected effective date!

Thinking of selling? NOW is the time to do it as there will be less people qualifying to buy a home! This includes yours! There could be a lot more houses on the market than there are buyers qualified to buy them. This could in turn, decrease the current value of your home after the March 18, 2011 estimated effective date.

It’s unethical, amoral and carnivorous to be egging on inexperienced and naive property virgins if Michelle expects – as she admits – that house prices will likely tumble after March 18th. She’s encouraging maximum borrowing and immediate purchasing, even though the 5/35 newbies could have their equity wiped out and be underwater by June. She, however, will have a commission.

If I were F, and had not engineered this whole thing just to create a robust housing market and the patina of consumer confidence amid hopes for rising home equity and economic recovery just weeks before a federal election was called, I’d be pissed. Poor dude..."

re: Canadian RE 'Market'

to saynothing of the US Idiots forever praising Candian "Banking Restraint" ..

AAIP; January 28, 2011 at 7:54 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: "This means that Paulson was making $158.55 per second last year."

...I had a good year too. I'll try to figure the dollars per second thingy out too, but I'll have to go resharpen my pencil first....give me a minute.; January 28, 2011 at 7:56 AM
Anonymous said...: (AP:BRUSSELS) A spokesman for the European Union's executive Commission says lending Greece money to buy back its bonds on the open market is "one option" being discussed as eurozone governments seek to overhaul their euro440 billion ($603 billion) bailout fund.

Greece's bonds are currently trading below face value, meaning the country could buy them back at a discount and cut its mounting debt pile.

Amadeu Altafaj-Tardio, spokesman for EU Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn, said Friday that the Commission had raised that idea in an internal "working document" on improving the response to the debt crisis.

He stressed the document wasn't a proposal from the Commission, adding "It will be up to the member states to see to it that our response (to the crisis) is more effective in the future."
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=68976166784712

sounds like a 'Monty Python'-skit..

ibid.; January 28, 2011 at 7:59 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Oh, and lest we forget about the Japanese debt downgrade...there seems to be something afoot..

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-28/moody-s-says-time-shortens-for-u-s-rating-outlook-as-s-p-downgrades-japan.html

Moody's Says Time Running Out for U.S. as S&P Cuts Japan

...First president to preside over a US sovereign debt downgrade? Whocouldanode....?; January 28, 2011 at 8:01 AM
Anonymous said...: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2011/01/24/the-revenge-of-f/?source=patrick.net#content

link for story quoted @ 07:54; January 28, 2011 at 8:02 AM
ben22 said...: "I'll try to figure the dollars per second thingy out too, but I'll have to go resharpen my pencil first....give me a minute."

Bruce, try an Abacus.

Also, 9:30 is a ways away, however, Ford looks to open with a nice fat gap down

so there's a dip you might have 30 seconds to buy if you are so inclined.; January 28, 2011 at 8:11 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Ben,

Would that be JBTFFD?; January 28, 2011 at 8:13 AM
Anonymous said...: http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=F

McB,

you thinkin' ~17, or ~18 on the d-side?

AAIP; January 28, 2011 at 8:19 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cf0a73bc-2a44-11e0-b906-00144feab49a.html?ftcamp=rss#axzz1CKsm7MOJ

Governments stockpile food staples

"Governments across the developing world are stockpiling food staples in an attempt to contain panic buying, inflation and social unrest."

...Oh, I had just learned that it was traders and speculators that was driving the price of commodities up. Not the Chinese government buying unobtanium. This OJT in the new economics is wearing out my few piddling neurons...; January 28, 2011 at 8:24 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: was could be were I suppose...; January 28, 2011 at 8:24 AM
ben22 said...: that's right bruce

I would also suggest putting this on at home at max volume when you buy that dip

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fVKjC_simy8; January 28, 2011 at 8:25 AM
ben22 said...: AAIP,

I don't know about F, haven't spent any time on the chart, just noticed it was down big pre-market.

AT might have a read on that, I think he follows them.; January 28, 2011 at 8:26 AM
Anonymous said...: ~17 3/4

Pre-Market Real-Time: 17.74 1.05 (5.59%) 8:28AM EST

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=F&ql=1

looks like it's up to ~17--to 'hold the line'..

AAIP; January 28, 2011 at 8:30 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Ben,

One of the things I like about Direct TV is that when I'm studying they have several channels that play that kind of music without commercials, and it reminds me of college and later. Great music in that era..; January 28, 2011 at 8:36 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: GDP less than expected but MUCH less inflation than predicted.....?; January 28, 2011 at 8:50 AM
Anonymous said...: where's the beef?

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Taco-Bell-fights-back-on-beef-apf-4174610044.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=

"Taco Bell is launching an advertising campaign Friday to fight back against a lawsuit charging its taco filling isn't beef.

The class-action lawsuit was filed late last week in federal court in California. It claimed Taco Bell falsely advertised its products as "beef." The suit alleges that the fast-food chain actually uses a meat mixture in its burritos and tacos that contains binders and extenders and does not meet requirements set by the U.S. Department of Agriculture to be labeled beef."

make me laugh- didn't Taco Bell win the fast food wars (what movie was that?); January 28, 2011 at 8:55 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.cnbc.com/id/41310340

Irish PM to Dissolve Parliament Tuesday: Report

...This will be interesting. It looks like with the future now bleak for the Irish taxpayer, that this could only lead to some sort of improvement..interesting to me though..; January 28, 2011 at 9:06 AM
AmenRa said...: Bruce

The new makeup of the Ireland Parliament may look to exit the IMF agreement and go the way of Iceland.; January 28, 2011 at 9:15 AM
Anonymous said...: BinT-

I don't know if you've been to Dublin before - but pretty underwhelming-

also- I think it would be cool if Ireland reconquered Northern Ireland- talk about some excitement

(as an aside- I always tell my kids that Virginia will one day reconquer West Virginia and regain territory lost to an illegal succession [my kids roll their eyes]); January 28, 2011 at 9:17 AM
AmenRa said...: I see at 4:45 ET the ES was pushed over its EMA(13). It's held above it since then.; January 28, 2011 at 9:18 AM
AmenRa said...: ...on the 15 min chart; January 28, 2011 at 9:19 AM
bob said...: Ahab

My father told me when I was young that he lost his hair (he was bald) in the french and indian war. It took me a few years to be able to do the math on that one.; January 28, 2011 at 9:20 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Guys,

I have read some of the Irish newspaper accounts of how Iceland is recovering. Although it was an SOB for awhile, it looks like in another year or two Iceland will be ok, and without generational debt...; January 28, 2011 at 9:21 AM
Anonymous said...: bob-

that's funny!

re Iceland-

they gave Europe the middle finger on the "debt slave" proposal; January 28, 2011 at 9:25 AM
bob said...: BinT

Agreed, they would be much better off if they told the banks to bugger off. A lot of the bank debt was from continental european banks, just like iceland.

But Ireland is stuck with the euro, and there are no plans on how to get out of that.; January 28, 2011 at 9:25 AM
karen said...: morning!! Bruce.. the parts i didn't like were where she fell down the hole and couldn't pull herself up.. please.. she could have grabbed onto her leg till she got to the tangle of roots.. the snakes? a bit too contrived.. i mean falling in the hole was enuf.. secondly.. why didn't Rooster tie her to one horse and ride another? the movie fell apart for me at the end.. btw, LOVE sci fi but did not care for Inception.; January 28, 2011 at 9:27 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: This is my day off, and I am going to get my run in...back before too long..

traveling this afternoon...; January 28, 2011 at 9:29 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Karen,

Glad you are up...saw your early morning post...I like the Contact type of things (Jodie Foster) and didn't particularly like Inception either...back in a few after my run...; January 28, 2011 at 9:31 AM
karen said...: Bob.. LOL! and my mother always told me she was a child of the great depression! while she later became very poor after her father died.. she was actually born as the depression ended.. but it was convenient while i was growing up to tell me why i couldn't have anything.. started working (baby sitting and odd jobs) when i was eleven.. to buy my own clothes.. a new pair of shoes was really a gift when i was growing up..; January 28, 2011 at 9:33 AM
Anonymous said...: B in T

The Japanese debt downgrade was a non-event. When it happens to the US the market will not move.

Getting ready to fade JOHN E, anyone? We kind of fancy a punt on the short side.; January 28, 2011 at 9:35 AM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: A lot of people are asking me about JPY strength today. USDJPY has tended to trade with US real rates. So unless US rates are going to explode to the upside, USDJPY may be range-bound (* ht: Team Macro Man).

Also, the JPY is a haven when there is Asian uncertainty. The brewing Chinese banking crisis has many seeking a place to park money.; January 28, 2011 at 9:39 AM
Anonymous said...: Egypt is intensifying. BBC showing brutal police action.

The police are Mubarak's police. Mubarak is Washington's guy.
One day Obama's police will be hitting Americans on the head.; January 28, 2011 at 9:40 AM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Falling knife du jour:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=EGPT:US; January 28, 2011 at 9:42 AM
I-Man said...: This morning was the first time I've had to stab my leg with AT's pen.

I almost bought some F a minute ago...

This was before I read your post Ben, LOL.

I think I'll wait a few months and try to nab some at 10.; January 28, 2011 at 9:43 AM
Anonymous said...: Confidence will be poor.
$gaso is up and Connie Consumer is paying for Xmas.; January 28, 2011 at 9:46 AM
I-Man said...: Re: Dow

I think we are ready to make a run at the next upside target: YM 12055

But there is another at YM 11799 that we never tagged, so that might cap it for today.; January 28, 2011 at 9:47 AM
karen said...: i sold some dto in AH yesterday.. in the high 61s! under 60 right now..; January 28, 2011 at 9:47 AM
Anonymous said...: TYX kissed 46.44 and backed off.

The only big inflationary data point up ahead is the next PPI. Not sure I am afraid of hot jobs numbers any more. After that data should moderate as Bucky takes the Euro to the cleaners again.; January 28, 2011 at 9:50 AM
Anonymous said...: How was your morning, K?; January 28, 2011 at 9:50 AM
ben22 said...: @I,

I'm tempted by F today but so unprepared as I have not been following the stock or studying the chart so rather than react I'll pick it apart over the weekend.

I realize that you are supposed to buy the dip without thinking but I just can't bring myself to act like that.; January 28, 2011 at 9:52 AM
Anonymous said...: EEM, FXI and GDX are all lagging. Take your pick.; January 28, 2011 at 9:53 AM
karen said...: anyone read about Geithner's talk in Davos? the daily pfenning is saying:

Geithner said that, "political will to deal with the U.S. fiscal issues was growing and acknowledged that the U.S. could not "grow its way out of fiscal challenge."; January 28, 2011 at 9:54 AM
karen said...: also from the pfenning: Bloomberg TV showed a graph yesterday of debt by country, and of course Japan is the leader at 200% of GDP, but they had the U.S. at 59% of GDP. I don't agree with that number. By my calculations and those of others, we see U.S. debt at 95% of GDP.; January 28, 2011 at 9:55 AM
Anonymous said...: Karen

It is pfennig. German for penny.; January 28, 2011 at 9:55 AM
karen said...: would someone stop me please from buying dto?! LOL.. i can get it back pts lower now..; January 28, 2011 at 9:56 AM
Anonymous said...: does anyone remember Cramer a few years back telling folks to "back up the truck" on Rite Aid-

makes me laugh every time I think of it . . .; January 28, 2011 at 9:57 AM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: 2s30s is 401 bps. Amazing.

TLT sub 91, get it while it's hot.; January 28, 2011 at 9:57 AM
Cramer said...: "back up the truck" on Rite Aid-

beep beep beep; January 28, 2011 at 9:58 AM
I-Man said...: Wait for the greed, Karen.

Only fade the greed.; January 28, 2011 at 9:58 AM
Anonymous said...: 74.2? Who did they ask? Blankfiend?; January 28, 2011 at 9:59 AM
Lord Blankfiend said...: We are confident.; January 28, 2011 at 10:01 AM
Anonymous said...: why don't they just pull a Circuit City and close shop already-

I'm not sure they've ever been in the black; January 28, 2011 at 10:01 AM
karen said...: I want aapl and amzn on the big sell off, lol.. seriously.. and maybe qcom.. jnpr..; January 28, 2011 at 10:02 AM
karen said...: new new new low in FAZ...; January 28, 2011 at 10:02 AM
Anonymous said...: and back when he was pitching RAD- it was over $5 a share . . .too funny; January 28, 2011 at 10:02 AM
karen said...: BloombergNow
Dow Surge to 12,000 Echoes April With 81% Above Average Price http://bloom.bg/dKyJEG

No worries.. it is different this time.; January 28, 2011 at 10:04 AM
Anonymous said...: I am drinking a cup of Seattle's Beast.

Have to say drinking this is like making love in a canoe.; January 28, 2011 at 10:05 AM
Anonymous said...: They are both f*cking close to water.; January 28, 2011 at 10:05 AM
Anonymous said...: new new new low in FAZ...

just back up the truck Karen; January 28, 2011 at 10:05 AM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Long bond and JPY are attracting buyers.

Keep an eye on the 1-month bill at 10 bps. There is some interest in havens. Remember the smart money always leaves the building early.; January 28, 2011 at 10:07 AM
bob said...: K

My father was born during the depression (35), and went on to work for the Comptroller of the Currency, back when they had people that would actually go to the banks and check out their books.

One thing I don't think he was BS'ing on, Never buy bank stocks, you can always get them cheaper tomorrow. He was also very aware of Wamu type setups where a bigger bank would swallow a smaller one if it chose to, wiping the equity out. Number one rule of banks and regulators (at least it used to be)- stop bank runs.; January 28, 2011 at 10:08 AM
ben22 said...: of the three....FXI

the China chart is baaaad; January 28, 2011 at 10:13 AM
Anonymous said...: People who bought Japanese bank stocks after the initial crash in the Nikkei are still waiting to see their big profits. The Teppers will go in and out and make billions, but those who are rash enough to B&H the banks are going to get taken to the cleaners by waves of write-downs and share issuance.; January 28, 2011 at 10:13 AM
Anonymous said...: We are short the EEM. So many bad things could happen this weekend. We will add to our short on any soft rallies today.; January 28, 2011 at 10:15 AM
ben22 said...: "does anyone remember Cramer a few years back telling folks to "back up the truck" on Rite Aid"

I believe it but don't remember, I read not long ago that he makes roughly 7,000 stock calls per year

think about that.....; January 28, 2011 at 10:15 AM
Anonymous said...: http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/01/28/jp-morgan-clients-overwhelmingly-waiting-for-a-correction/?mod=yahoo_hs

J.P. Morgan: Clients ‘Overwhelmingly Waiting’ for Correction.; January 28, 2011 at 10:15 AM
ben22 said...: are you guys trying to say that Citi might not be at $15 at the end of next year?

come on man; January 28, 2011 at 10:15 AM
Anonymous said...: TLT LOD 90.77, back above 91 now.; January 28, 2011 at 10:16 AM
Chuck Prince said...: I'm still dancing.; January 28, 2011 at 10:16 AM
karen said...: ben.. are u suggesting cramer is a stopped clock??; January 28, 2011 at 10:16 AM
ben22 said...: yes basically what I'm saying, 7,000 picks a year, it's insane.; January 28, 2011 at 10:19 AM
karen said...: Anon @10:05.. dying, dying of laughter.. !!; January 28, 2011 at 10:19 AM
Jim Cramer said...: "NYX is going to $300" (11/06); January 28, 2011 at 10:20 AM
I-Man said...: Gettin close...; January 28, 2011 at 10:21 AM
karen said...: Ahab.. Circuit City? what about Borders!! BGP was up 40% today.. LOL..; January 28, 2011 at 10:21 AM
ben22 said...: still lots of interest in SPY puts in the range from yesterday; January 28, 2011 at 10:22 AM
ben22 said...: F,

sub 17; January 28, 2011 at 10:22 AM
Cramer said...: 7,000 picks a year. One goal in mind...

To make you lose MAD MONEY.; January 28, 2011 at 10:22 AM
Anonymous said...: Bad week for F and T. EGPT too.; January 28, 2011 at 10:24 AM
Anonymous said...: I like I-Man's vibe from a night or two ago- I have to eschew my inherent anger and embrace the light (and reject the dark side)-

I am now in the lotus position (what is a lotus position?); January 28, 2011 at 10:24 AM
Anonymous said...: Border's- there's another company that can't make money-

the stock went up because they just got new financing- good money after bad; January 28, 2011 at 10:26 AM
ben22 said...: downward dog dude

alright, if you can rock out, rock out to this, it is Friday, one of my favorite guitar licks of all time:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vHDA5nHlDrQ

sweaty teddy; January 28, 2011 at 10:27 AM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: I think we may have seen the Top. TYX has topped.

EEM and FXI peaked a while ago, CRB as well.
US equities always lag.

Markets peak on good news (GDP). Sell the News.; January 28, 2011 at 10:29 AM
I-Man said...: The I used to be a pretty angry dude... had to grow down.; January 28, 2011 at 10:29 AM
Anonymous said...: Border's- there's another company that can't make money-

The management don't care about making money, just taking out their cut in stock options and getting the heck out of Dodge.; January 28, 2011 at 10:30 AM
Anonymous said...: The I- be Mello, now, mon.; January 28, 2011 at 10:30 AM
The Long Bond said...: I am surging.; January 28, 2011 at 10:31 AM
bob said...: LB

Great call on the day, wasn't quick enough to pull the trigger.; January 28, 2011 at 10:32 AM
Anonymous said...: Nasdaq Index Unavailable Due to Outrage

wow- I wonder who's all pissed off; January 28, 2011 at 10:32 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: "More troubling, operating profit was 30 cents a share, a few SUVs shy of the Thomson Reuters forecast of 48 cents a share. Ford is trading down about 5% at the opening bell at about 17.80.

Dow Jones reports that in Asia, a key market for all, Ford made $97 on each of its 236,000 cars sold."

...somehow that don't seem like much profit to me..; January 28, 2011 at 10:33 AM
Anonymous said...: Seemed like a typical Sell the News set-up, didn't it?

JBTFDers entering the fray. Let 'em have at it.
Then we will add to the shorts after lunch.; January 28, 2011 at 10:34 AM
karen said...: someone buy DUST..; January 28, 2011 at 10:34 AM
Anonymous said...: Bob-

LB's the man when it comes to tops and bottoms; January 28, 2011 at 10:34 AM
ben22 said...: @AAIP,

did you put that TLT option position on?

think you were looking at 89 puts and 91 calls?; January 28, 2011 at 10:34 AM
I-Man said...: Dip Bought.

Lets see if I've learned how to get it right on the first shot.; January 28, 2011 at 10:36 AM
Anonymous said...: $97 on each of its 236,000 cars sold

wow- fat margins- (didn't GM used to lose a couple thousand on every car sold); January 28, 2011 at 10:38 AM
ben22 said...: so we closed Wed morning's gap, if I were a ninja.....

gl I-man; January 28, 2011 at 10:38 AM
ben22 said...: who knows what GM really does, they told you themselves not to trust any of their financial statements

page 30 of the IPO under risk disclosures

but that Volt, everyone will buy it right....; January 28, 2011 at 10:39 AM
Anonymous said...: This morning's yen strength suggested that I had called the action correctly. It is difficult to get this market up far when JPY is that strong. We are approaching decision time for AUDJPY.

We have called three of the last three important bottoms and nineteen of the last two tops. There is a lesson there.; January 28, 2011 at 10:40 AM
bob said...: car companies don't make money selling cars, they make it one of two other ways.

First and biggest, selling car LOANS.

Parts after the fact.; January 28, 2011 at 10:40 AM
I-Man said...: Thank you, Jah.

I love this stuff...; January 28, 2011 at 10:42 AM
Anonymous said...: No real weakness in HY as yet.; January 28, 2011 at 10:42 AM
Anonymous said...: I'd love to hang around "the corner" today as it looks to be an interesting day-

but . . .daughter and office beckon . . .

all be good; January 28, 2011 at 10:43 AM
ben22 said...: no doubt bob, and lets not forget last year was all time record issuance of subprime auto loans if I'm not mistaken.

I have a client that runs floor operations for a huge Ford dealership in Philly, he says about 60-70% of the people that come in looking for cars they have a hard time getting a loan for them.; January 28, 2011 at 10:43 AM
I-Man said...: Glad I flattened out with gains... ugh.; January 28, 2011 at 10:46 AM
Anonymous said...: EURJPY getting hammered.; January 28, 2011 at 10:47 AM
Anonymous said...: I think someone said they sold TLT puts at 88 and bought 95 calls the other day. I was guessing it was LB; January 28, 2011 at 10:47 AM
bob said...: B

Car loans are a very, very good business, very low default rates, and very high recovery. After the first year or two there is essentially zero risk, worst comes to worst, they come and take the car.

You can't really tow a house away.

The ILC's (car finance companies) have been taking that business away from local banks for years now. This is why a lot of the local banks got so far out on the RE limb, they HAVE to make loans somehow.; January 28, 2011 at 10:50 AM
Bernank said...: Don't worry, I have this under control...; January 28, 2011 at 10:51 AM
ben22 said...: I don't think LB plays options, maybe he does but I seem to recall his core portfolio doesn't use leverage, I thought AAIP was looking to sell the 89 puts and buy the 91 calls but I could be wrong, someone put TLT quotes up a few days ago, I do know that.; January 28, 2011 at 10:51 AM
ben22 said...: Bob,

I think they have a show now...repo men?

I'm still stuck on Jersey Shore; January 28, 2011 at 10:52 AM
I-Man said...: This is a gift if you're a swing trader...; January 28, 2011 at 10:55 AM
Anonymous said...: it was definitely AAIP who put up the TLT quotes, and he was saying the 91 calls looked good; January 28, 2011 at 10:55 AM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: No we just buy TLT on dips. No options. Mark's domain.

Bonds will be rangey for a while until it dawns on people that we are still in Karen's Recoveryless Recovery™, despite the Ben Bernank. Somewhere up ahead there will be a very deflationary data point, and then everyone who is long growth with leverage is going to pee their pants.; January 28, 2011 at 10:56 AM
ben22 said...: did someone say they would pee their pants?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WCa5qOQ-DA; January 28, 2011 at 11:00 AM
Anonymous said...: 16.59 -2.20 (-11.71%) 11:02AM EST

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=f&ql=1

mCb,

~17 didn't do it's job..

AAIP; January 28, 2011 at 11:04 AM
18 said...: 1287 is a good fib number of the 18's, so if you're just gambling, JBTFD at or below this may work out.; January 28, 2011 at 11:05 AM
Anonymous said...: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=TLT+Options

ibid.; January 28, 2011 at 11:07 AM
I-Man said...: Pretty big test for the market here, must admit I'm a bit surprised at the downside momentum...; January 28, 2011 at 11:07 AM
ben22 said...: AAIP,

yes, I've got that pulled up and watching for now

getting beaten up pretty badly, big battle going on there

fwiw, neely is short again

"it often takes several attempts to pick a top"

stay tuned.....; January 28, 2011 at 11:08 AM
Anonymous said...: Day's Range: 90.77 - 91.71

91.71 0.27 (0.30%) 11:03AM EST

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TLT&ql=1

TLT has been strong--holding above ~90..

posted this http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TLT&ql=1

noting it looked 'constructive'..

AAIP; January 28, 2011 at 11:10 AM
bob said...: B, on repo men-

I think I have seen that. There is also one where they are repo-ing boats and planes and stuff like that, might be the same show.

Dirty business, lots of legal grey area, surprised they let themselves be filmed, for instance, breaking well settled criminal law on breaking and entering is common.

That's why the sub it out, no shortage of criminals these days...; January 28, 2011 at 11:10 AM
Anonymous said...: S&P 500
1288.81
-10.73 -0.83%
Dow Indu
11916.95
-72.88 -0.61%
Nasdaq
2716.79
-38.49 -1.40%
Crude Oil 87.53 +1.89 +2.22
Natural Gas 4.316 -0.003 -0.07
Corn 653.50 +2.75 +0.42
Soybeans 1412.0 +12.5 +0.89
30yr Bond 120.84375 +0.12500 +0.10
10yr Note 120.500000 -0.171875 -0.14
NY Gold 1326.7 +6.9 +0.52
NY Silver 27.350 +0.319 +1.19
http://www.ino.com/; January 28, 2011 at 11:12 AM
I-Man said...: Crude sure is saying something...; January 28, 2011 at 11:14 AM
karen said...: EDC down the most on my screen.. -5.24 %; January 28, 2011 at 11:14 AM
ben22 said...: speaking of subs, wonder if they repo'd that sub from the ponzi guy up in Minny.

use a tugboat instead of a tow truck; January 28, 2011 at 11:15 AM
I-Man said...: This reminds me a whole lot of mid/late Sept...

If we carve a low today, its the perfect springboard for a March high.; January 28, 2011 at 11:18 AM
ben22 said...: this is the type of formation Neely has been warning about for several weeks now

stay ninja squad

remember if his count is correct, we will wipe out all of last years gain in a hurry; January 28, 2011 at 11:20 AM
ben22 said...: 18,

very nice

even if it doesn't hold, we just paused at the 1287; January 28, 2011 at 11:21 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Egyptian Concerns Brewing in Markets- AP
Markets brushed aside figures showing that the U.S. economy grew less than expected at the end of 2010 as investors kept a close watch on growing street protests in Egypt.

...How close is that bastion of democracy, Saudi Arabia, to Egypt and Tunisia again? Now THAT would deserve a least a chapter in the New Economic Textbook for Dummies...; January 28, 2011 at 11:22 AM
I-Man said...: Ra did we just touch off any 3LBs?; January 28, 2011 at 11:22 AM
CV said...: @ahab (10:24)

The problem/question IS NOT "how does one get into the lotus position?"...

It's how you GET OUT that matters...

That's CV's words of advice for the day... Now, back to my errands...

AMEN - I'll put up a thread tomorrow morning... Have no clue what it'll be about (no football - other than "All Pro" game - Yeah, like we all really give a FF... They need to "mix that up" a bit to make it interesting... Like play a CO-ED game with the Playboy bunnies or something)...; January 28, 2011 at 11:28 AM
AmenRa said...: I-Man

Below 1293.24 is a daily 3LB reversal down on the SPX. Nowhere near the weekly 3LB mid...yet.; January 28, 2011 at 11:30 AM
I-Man said...: Gnarly!!!; January 28, 2011 at 11:31 AM
AmenRa said...: CV

Or a post on the lingerie league...; January 28, 2011 at 11:31 AM
18 said...: 18's on SPY chart, the 130.5 line doesn't show on the chart. It's been "my top" for a week or so. Ya know Ben, you could adapt to the "18's" and change your handle to ben18 :); January 28, 2011 at 11:31 AM
CV said...: I just checked the tape...

Oops...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JlMIzAl_nDo&feature=related

"The bigger the headache, the bigger the pill...

The bigger the doctor, the bigger the bill"; January 28, 2011 at 11:33 AM
CV said...: "Just because I don't believe that I wanna dance... Don't mean that I don't want you..."

(Jack was slicker than Jill); January 28, 2011 at 11:36 AM
18 said...: ... 1305
1296
...1287
[you are here]
1278
1260 breakdown support area; January 28, 2011 at 11:37 AM
Anonymous said...: http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=BZQ&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

for a 2nd go 'round, who likes BZQ here?

AAIP; January 28, 2011 at 11:39 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: CV:

Pretty good video. But I have found, just recently unearthed, one of Leftback's dating habits. Lefty can really move!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VlRXQEA0yj0; January 28, 2011 at 11:41 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Karen, I recognize Lefty in the video, but darlin' I know that ain't you....; January 28, 2011 at 11:48 AM
AmenRa said...: Hmmm at this rate of descent we may end up closing under the weekly 3LB mid.

*Now that I've said it watch the JBTFD crowd run the SPX back to 1300.; January 28, 2011 at 11:51 AM
Anonymous said...: ben22 said...
@AAIP,

did you put that TLT option position on?

think you were looking at 89 puts and 91 calls?

January 28, 2011 10:34 AM

McB,

yes, it was, nearly, a 'credit'-spread (net)

Feb-series..

ibid.; January 28, 2011 at 11:53 AM
AmenRa said...: I also see TRIN is at 0.80. You would figure that it should be well over 1.00 by now.; January 28, 2011 at 11:54 AM
Jennifer said...: Okay -- I'm back. Seems I've missed a lot of excitement. We're right back at my cold steel moment from the other day? Are we going over the edge this time?; January 28, 2011 at 11:56 AM
I-Man said...: Been awhile since we got to short like this!

A lot more fun than the higher grind... or a measly little squeeze...

Fear is powerful shit.; January 28, 2011 at 12:00 PM
Anonymous said...: EUR/USD 1.3602 -0.0127 -0.93%
USD/JPY 82.00 -0.83 -1.01%
GBP/USD 1.5836 -0.0093 -0.58%
5-Year Treasury 1.914 -0.068 -3.43%
10-Year Treasury 3.327 -0.058 -1.71%
30-Year Treasury 4.544 -0.015 -0.33%

Mayo sucking wind..

http://finviz.com/

ibid.; January 28, 2011 at 12:00 PM
Anonymous said...: Or a post on the lingerie league...

We are assuming that K is going to be an All-Star.; January 28, 2011 at 12:01 PM
Jennifer said...: I-man -- I think that's my whole trading problem. I embrace the fear. I mean, its going to happen, right? So let's just get it over with already. Rip that bandaid right off.; January 28, 2011 at 12:01 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Today is going to do a world of good for the TLT and AGG charts.; January 28, 2011 at 12:02 PM
18 said...: 1st time SPX hit 1300's was March 99, 144 months ago...; January 28, 2011 at 12:02 PM
I-Man said...: That last one was better than sex; January 28, 2011 at 12:03 PM
Anonymous said...: Gold up, stocks down.

This is an old-fashioned response to global instability.
Tunisia was nothing. Egypt matters.; January 28, 2011 at 12:03 PM
I-Man said...: Alright, that last puker might've been it.; January 28, 2011 at 12:04 PM
Anonymous said...: That last one was better than sex

It is possible the I- has been trading too much... ;-); January 28, 2011 at 12:04 PM
ben22 said...: 18,

there is all kind of fibo time and price action right here
way to much to ignore, it's nature's law.

I hope our team here is smart enough to recognize when you should stop buying dips and start selling rips

the masses, it would seem, have fully embraced the former.

This C wave is going to be a real bitch

boy scout time; January 28, 2011 at 12:04 PM
Anonymous said...: oops, 142 months, anyway, a long time ago

18; January 28, 2011 at 12:05 PM
I-Man said...: YM 11700 puts us right on top of the 1x4 Gann off the Nov 16 low...

Might as well shoot for that I guess, if we do... might get some Takuri action.; January 28, 2011 at 12:07 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Andy's Slope of Hope might prove to be icy for a few bulls.
We are in rip selling mode until proved wrong now.

However we will keep and add to our divvys.; January 28, 2011 at 12:07 PM
karen said...: $spx hasn't even hit jan 20 low.. probably time to JBTFD while we are at the 20 ema..; January 28, 2011 at 12:08 PM
ben22 said...: depending on other charts you look at it's 146 months

keep in mind fibo's rarely get hit right on the nose

even the nautilus shell is not a perfect phi spiral

one is theory, the other is reality; January 28, 2011 at 12:08 PM
Anonymous said...: The Army are involved in Cairo.

POMO this, Brian Sack.; January 28, 2011 at 12:10 PM
Anonymous said...: gotta bolt, I'll see iffin' I can catch up later..

this: "I hope our team here is smart enough to recognize when you should stop buying dips and start selling rips", x2

AAIP; January 28, 2011 at 12:10 PM
I-Man said...: Yall are still too eager to short the trend... but this is some good fun.

:); January 28, 2011 at 12:11 PM
Anonymous said...: @22, agree, I'm am!

1278 right on queue?

18; January 28, 2011 at 12:12 PM
Jennifer said...: back to retest 1282 ish? That level was hard to break.; January 28, 2011 at 12:13 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: EGPT hit bottom at 16.19 and bounced. Still above LOY.

Keep an eye on that knife. Down 20% in a few days.
Where is Colin, knife swallower extraordinaire?

Markets like 3% pukes. SPX 1250-1260.
That would get bought, big time.

Egypt is an excuse, but the EEM weakness is very striking.
Know what you own.; January 28, 2011 at 12:15 PM
Jennifer said...: At bottom of channel on SPX hourly.; January 28, 2011 at 12:16 PM
I-Man said...: Gonna be a lot of missed lunch breaks in NYC and the Chi Town today... LOL.; January 28, 2011 at 12:17 PM
Jennifer said...: I see no one wanted the JBTFFD until it had a 15 handle.; January 28, 2011 at 12:18 PM
Jennifer said...: I'd leave my kid at preschool, but they call the cops if you are more than 15 min late.; January 28, 2011 at 12:18 PM
Jennifer said...: (disclaimer: no personal experience, it says that in the handbook.); January 28, 2011 at 12:19 PM
Anonymous said...: Nibbled on some T. 6% yield. Call me a Yield Whore.; January 28, 2011 at 12:20 PM
Jennifer said...: Yield whore.; January 28, 2011 at 12:22 PM
Anonymous said...: Au and Ag must be in a short squeeze.
Must have The Precious™.; January 28, 2011 at 12:22 PM
Anonymous said...: Speaking of yields, these lower long end rates will be great for MBS and indirectly for the REITs like CIM, NLY. They are holding up nicely.

I do like it when it makes sense. Tepper must be spilling some milk, DF is down, T and some other telecoms like FTR being clobbered.

FTR 9% yield... I am salivating. Only one thing we like more than yield and that is....; January 28, 2011 at 12:25 PM
Jennifer said...: This is strange. NFLX is hanging in there. Home Shopping Network is up?!??

Enough with Egypt burning, lets buy some cheap jewelry?; January 28, 2011 at 12:25 PM
Anonymous said...: In the rural Midwest a place that is a long way across the state is often referred to by the locals as BFE. Bumf*ck Egypt.

Back to the HSN.; January 28, 2011 at 12:30 PM
karen said...: this is hardly a sell off.. i am totally uninspired and unexcited..

goldbugs are thrilled.. hope they decide to take some cash off the table.. the good stocks are all holding up well and haven't even dipped enuf to buy.

just call me sour grapes, Jennifer.; January 28, 2011 at 12:31 PM
Anonymous said...: One of the best trades ever is usually to fade haven buying into the close on Fridays on the grounds that the world will still be there Monday.

So on that basis you would short JPY, GLD and TLT and buy EGPT.

K, we really prefer it when you are inspired and excited.; January 28, 2011 at 12:34 PM
Jennifer said...: Hi Karen, I mean sour grapes. I've got to go...hoping for treading water for the next hour til I'm back.; January 28, 2011 at 12:34 PM
Anonymous said...: It will be interesting to watch how Mr Market handicaps this action in Egypt. We also have more economic data on Monday that might not knock anyone's socks off. Chicago PMI.; January 28, 2011 at 12:36 PM
Anonymous said...: PMs and GDX should be a good short when this has run its course. Any of you technical wizards got levels for Au and Ag that will serve as resistance?; January 28, 2011 at 12:39 PM
Anonymous said...: TLT still rocking out. At some point the short end becomes pointless and everyone piles into the long bond, and we will get a flattener.; January 28, 2011 at 12:47 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698

1749: AP reporter Ashraf Sweilim reports that some Bedouins in Sinai are besieging the Sheikh Zoueid police station, demanding members of the security forces inside to surrender.

..spreading..; January 28, 2011 at 12:51 PM
karen said...: more MSM spin.. http://www.businessinsider.com/on-the-matter-of-the-suez-canal-2011-1

the smart $ wants to short crude, i bet.; January 28, 2011 at 12:53 PM
karen said...: or get out of their long crude plays..; January 28, 2011 at 12:53 PM
Anonymous said...: There will be a lot of panic in McLean when all these Arab puppet regimes go under. The CIA are going to get the BEN BERNANK on the phone and may want to ground his helicopters.; January 28, 2011 at 12:54 PM
karen said...: Also, be careful on commentary at ZH.. a lot of is it sensational and ignorant..; January 28, 2011 at 12:56 PM
I-Man said...: Could it be??? One more puker?; January 28, 2011 at 12:56 PM
Anonymous said...: Colin must be buying a truckload of EGBs. Apparently Egyptian bonds are at record wides.

A big puke would be healthy.; January 28, 2011 at 12:57 PM
I-Man said...: These are career days right here...

Like catching a 30lb Native Steelhead...; January 28, 2011 at 1:02 PM
ben22 said...: I don't think it's so much wanting to short the trend as it is a desire to be able to adapt one's trading style when needed.

As I shared that Neely post a few weeks ago, traders often get stuck with one kind of trading method, like momentum and then always try to make the market fit their method.

if you believe in your analysis there comes a time when you attempt to pick tops.; January 28, 2011 at 1:05 PM
karen said...: a good tradermark: http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2011/01/always-amazing-how-it-does-not-matter.html; January 28, 2011 at 1:07 PM
I-Man said...: There is a daytrader in you just dying to break out Benjamin.; January 28, 2011 at 1:07 PM

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Morning Corner 1.28.11

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