AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: Forgot about working the US markets. Had more fun in the foreign markets.

Bullish long day (resolved doji higher. damn). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1276.56). QE2infinity.

Spinning top day (start of morning star?). Midpoint below EMA(10). Below the 23.6% retrace (78.72). Below all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 78.96).

Dark cloud cover day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(55). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 16.11). Stuck in the "no fear" zone. Currently does not have a monthly 3LB reversal.

Bearish short day (failed morning star start). Still below SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). 0.0% retrace holding. Quickly approaching the 38.2% retrace (1328.33). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1346.50). Must have the precious.

Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above its 50.0% retrace at 1.3506. Still above SMA(89). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.3453).

Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above SMA(55). Still can't close gap post dividends. Back above 38.2% retrace (40.28). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.47).

Spinning top day. Held above the 14.6% retrace at 33.86. Still above SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 32.36). Holding above upper trend line.

Bullish short day. Still below SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 5212.60).

Bearish long day (bearish engulfing?). Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. No test of new 0.0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 323.94).

Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Held the 14.6% retrace (16.41). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 16.72).

Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above SMA(21). Held new 0.0% retrace (11.15). Still above 23.6% retrace (11.68). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 12.30). Now above weekly 3LB mid (11.76).


The Bond Report 1.24.11

A quiet Monday. It was quiet, too quiet.... he mused, as risky credits rose by 0.2% for the 69th consecutive day. The recovery in munis continued among the eerie silence. Little action in Treasuries, with no macro data today and auctions of 2s, 5s and 7s ahead of us this week.

We listened for the buzzing of US factories and the jobless returning to work under President Obanana and his new Emplyment Czar and personal grooming advisor Jiffy Emmelt, but we heard nothing, not even crickets.

Only the stillness of the frozen tundra, the far away howl of a wolf, and snow falling on cedars....

Corpies: LQD 0.05%; AGG -0.06%; JNK 0.22%; HYG 0.14%
Govies: TLT 0.04%; IEI 0.01%; TIP -0.07%
Munis: IQI 0.68%; MUB 0.50%
Mortgages: MBB -0.01%
Hedgies: TBT -0.21%

We get nervous when it is too easy, so we trimmed our HY holdings again and added to our EM shorts.

13% HYG, 10% AGG, 5% TIP, 4% TLT, 3% LQD (total 35%)
14% long equities, 19% short EMs, 6% short gold.


Jiff Emmelt said...

My economic recovery was easy. Cancel the dividend, use TARP to broker some deals in China, then borrow money from Buffett, and buy a lot of shares at $6 for myself after we got the QE1 phone call. Suspend mark to market accounting, so my guys at GE Capital could make stuff up again. Then fire a bunch of people in the US, and create fewer jobs in China at lower wages. Sell my shares at $20. Pay myself a bonus. Job done.

I am new JOBS CZAR, Jiff Emmelt (I melt jobs in a jiff and export 'em to the EMs). I attended Dartmouth and Harvard, and am a member of a GE dynasty, following in my father's footsteps to lead the glory that is corporate America.

If I were you I wouldn't expect many jobs, and I would buy gold and bury it in the back yard like I did, because we are really going to eff the dollar, eff your savings and eff America while investing in EEM.

My greatness will be commenting often here in the future. I know HOW TO COMPETE, and will be advising President O'Banana on how to make AMERICA GREAT AGAIN. I was trained by the best Ponzi builder and jobs eviscerator in the business, NEUTRON JACK, and I will give you the benefit of my perspective at regular intervals.

Have to go now, need to take the helicopter home from Fairfield to New Canaan (please do not try to enter if you are poor or are a funny color), at $40,000 a pop. Time is money. Farewell, peasants.

AmenRa said...

Robert Murphy's Retort to Paul Krugman on Austrian Business-Cycle Theory


I do not claim that the Austrian theory of the business cycle captures every pertinent feature of modern recessions. What I do claim is that a theory — including any of Paul Krugman's Keynesian models — that neglects the distortion of the capital structure during boom periods cannot possibly hope to accurately prescribe policy solutions after a crash.

CV said...

Catfood bitchez!

Not lovin' it — McDonald's to increase prices

No specific menu items mentioned, global sales fall as ingredient costs rise

But it's DEFLATION... right?... Bernanke bucks have nothing to do with it...

CV said...

I'm just trying to help you all out here...


Here's how to make this shit AT HOME...

Big Mac

Big Mac Sauce

McDonald's Fries

Chicken Nuggets

CV said...

@Amen (7:52)

Fancy way of saying... "You're a one trick pony bitch"... and the trick AIN'T working...

The COMPLEXITY all this SIMPLICITY continues to astound CV... But I guess people need something to do...

CV said...

complexity "of" this simplicity...

Obviously I... continue to astound myself (ror)

AmenRa said...


It also says how can you have a PhD in Economics and not have a working knowledge of all theories in your discipline.

Anonymous said...


if one was a forceful advocate of the Austrian School, chances are, better than 9 in 10, that one would see their "PhD Thesis", and their hopes for a "PhD Degree", hit the Trashcan..


AmenRa said...


I read that story not too long ago. The funny thing is that Mises' theory was out there as the same time as Keynes. It just needed to get translated.

AmenRa said...

OT: Anyone use a percolator to make coffee? It tastes so much better. Just sayin'

Jennifer said...

Hmmm...I wonder what happened to my parents' old percolator...I always found it fascinating as a kid.

Matthew said...

AR: I use a French press for all of my coffee. Prior to that, I used a percolator. I like both ways.

Today provided an amusing opportunity to finish derisking. I expect this to be a very boring week. I will NOT short anything in this market, but I have no compunction about converting more cash to long duration high quality.

Andy T said...

AR: My grandmother used to carry her old travel percolator everywhere she went. We still have it. Really strong and hot coffee...

ben22 said...

I don't drink coffee but my mom always used the percolator, still does.

Andy T said...

It's funny how I still can't get filled on my SP simply is not breaking down yet...

I think I've raised my stop sell level every week for a few weeks in a row...just can't get done...

May have to just go crazy and sell into the next rally! Errr....On second thought...this whole NOT LOSING money thing is ok too.

Andy T said...

Caught this quote over at Napoleon and Squealer's* place:

"The degree of one's emotion varies inversely with one's knowledge of the facts -- the less you know the hotter you get.-- Bertrand Russell (attributed: source unknown)"

Fantastic observation/quote!

*Apt Animal Farm reference.

karen said...

Love that quote, Andy!

Please on the percolator! camp fire coffee beats that any day.. and NOTHING compares to a french press.. I have a hand grinder for my coffee beans should electricity ever fail (hope Chet is reading this.)

Ha! my grandmother's percolator and her front load washing machine in the kitchen.. what could possibly be more mesmerizing..

let's go to gold! see that 1330 print!!! i want it to do what i know it can do.. sub 1k.. oh, my, would that be a dream come true..

Andy T said...

They're going to try and carve out support 1317-1330 zone. If I were a day trader type, the risk/reward actually favors buying that stupid thing in that zone and running a stop on action below 1317.

Andy T said...

Never had "camp fire" coffee....
Ashamed, I am.

French Press is awesome, no doubt.

I suppose I'm remember the percolator with fondness because it was my grandmother's...

Need to break that thing out and do the Pepsi Challenge.

Anonymous said...

Folks have been observing the breakdown of correlations lately, I thought this was interesting:

Is this the end of "one trade"?

Anonymous said...

the percolator is underloved..too many think "K-Cups" are the Ticket...

and we wonder(?) why Chicken Wings are popular..

flippin' Barnum, as opposed to Krugman, he knew that, of which, he spoke..


18 said...

1332... run up to here won't be easy
1314... close above 1305, almost certian we see this
1296... turning into resistance
1278... support for now
1260... breakdown support

Anonymous said...

AmenRa said...


The 14.6% extension of the monthly 3LB is 1290.77 (which was retaken today). If that holds then the next target is the 23.6% extension at 1311.20. But if it fails then support is at the monthly 3LB reversal high at 1257.64 (or the 0.0%). FWIW the midpoint between 0% & 14.6% is 1274.21. The recent correction stopped at 1274.26.

Anonymous said...

worth reading..

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