AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: Never thought I'd hear myself say this again but "No Mas!".

Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Made a new 0.0% retrace high. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1285.96). QE2infinity.

Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below the 23.6% retrace (78.72). Still heading for the 14.6% retrace (77.54). Below all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 78.21).

Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below SMA(21). No daily 3LB (reversal is 16.11). Stuck in the "no fear" zone. Currently has a monthly 3LB reversal.

Bullish engulfing day. Still below SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). 0.0% retrace holding. Tested and held the 38.2% retrace (1328.33). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1360.50). Must have the precious.

Spinning top day. Holding above SMA(89). Midpoint above EMA(10). Also holding its 23.6% retrace (1.1114). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.1217).

Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above SMA(55). Still above 38.2% retrace (40.28). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.47).

Bullish short day. Passed the 14.6% retrace at 33.86. Back above SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 32.36). Holding above upper trend line.

Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above SMA(21). Held new 0.0% retrace (11.15). Almost above 38.2% retrace (12.01). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 12.30). Still above weekly 3LB mid (11.76).

Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above SMA(21). Held the 23.6% retrace (98.10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 99.96). Tested and passed the weekly 3LB mid.

Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below SMA(21). Failed lower trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 94.12). Breakout is down.

Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Held SMA(55). Still below 14.6% retrace (47.26). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 48.10).


The Bond Report 1.26.11

FOMC day again, the day after SOTU. An uninterrupted stream of Benny bucks, together with POTUS fiscal stimulus drivel last night created a risk-on environment yet again, and HY outperformed IG as USTs were used to light bonfires in the streets. The recovery in munis continued. Mortgages were weak on a big YC steepener.

2s30s and 10s30s continued to be stretched as widely as.. well, very wide, almost unnaturally so, almost as if someone mysterious were trying to manipulate the yield curve. Perish the thought.

Outside, the snow continued to fall, and all was still....

Corpies: LQD -0.56%; AGG -0.33%; JNK 0.30%; HYG 0.21%
Govies: TLT -1.52%; IEI -0.24%; TIP -0.17%
Munis: IQI 0.59%; MUB 0.75%
Mortgages: MBB -0.24%
Hedgies: TBT 2.80%

Durables, claims in the morning and then at 1pm the 7y auction tomorrow, expect weakness in Ts beforehand and strength afterwards. China likes to do stuff on Fridays, so Thursday afternoons can be a time for Mr Market to anticipate Voldemort's macro machinations.

We sold another chunk of JNK and bought some TLT.

We are now 11% HYG/JNK, 10% AGG, 5% TIP, 6% TLT and 3% LQD (35%).
Equity longs 14%, no shorts overnight.


Anonymous said...

US officials say they have found no link between Wikileaks and Pfc Bradley Manning, the alleged source of hundreds of thousands of leaked US documents.

Anonymous officials at the Pentagon told NBC correspondent Jim Miklaszewski that they have been unable to make any direct connections between Manning and Wikileaks founder Julian Assange.

The revelation has weakened the US State Department's chances to prosecute Assange.

Assange has repeatedly denied any connection with Manning, calling the allegations “absolute nonsense.”

US military officials were previously adamant that Manning downloaded classified information, but there is no evidence that shows him passing information to the Wikileaks' founder, who is currently in Britain pending extradition.

Manning has been held in a maximum-security detention facility at Quantico Marine base in Virginia since July.

The 23-year-old army private was arrested in May and held at a detention center in Kuwait before being transferred to the US.

He is charged with leaking classified material, including a video -- released by Wikileaks -- of a 2007 US Apache helicopter attack in Baghdad that killed a Reuters news photographer and his driver.

David E. Coombs, Manning's lawyer, said he has filed a complaint with the Quantico brigade accusing them of abusing his client..."

Jennifer said...

NFLX back over 200 in the AH. WTF?

Matthew said...

2s30s doesn't concern me. There is a lot more Fed at the front end causing that.

10s30s is what I have been watching. That seems ridiculous. I think we might have been this wide right before QE2 was announced and that is probably the only time in the last ten years that I remember.

It is hard for me to imagine that widening any more and easy for me to see it flatten with the ten year closing or, more likely, the 30-year coming in a bit.

Andy T said...

Continued thanks to AmenRa for his posts and also to to LB for the Bond Report.

Andy T said...

Ahab, if you're out there.

BR posted that Macleans link on the "stock market for suckers"....

You had been highlighting that one earlier.

Good article for sure.

Well worth reading and understanding.

I've talked about this in the past, but when you buy a publicly traded stock, you're usually buying someone else's "Exit Strategy."

I HATE owning individual stocks....

Bruce in Tennessee said...

UNIONDALE, N.Y. — A state oversight board on Wednesday seized control of Nassau County’s finances, saying the county, one of the nation’s wealthiest and most heavily taxed, had nonetheless failed to balance its $2.7 billion budget.

bob said...


I have first hand knowledge of that county. It's filthy with corruption, and all of the money has already been spent, most on various "projects". If I am remembering correctly, about 10 years ago they financed a public/private "opera house", just as an example.

Having NYS come in to clean it up is akin to asking the prisoners to reform the jail.

karen said...

Jennifer.. let's see if NFLX does a goog and an appl.. and i haven't checked but there have have been a plus 10% short ratio..

Andy, LOL on your comment about buying someone else's exit strategy.. precisely what the that market has become.

Paying for the extreme weather:

AmenRa said...

Back now. Had to replace a belt tensioner and belt. Quick peek at AH trades. AUDJPY & EURJPY are lower, gold is up, EURUSD is up, Loonie is up (that has to be killing their exports), silver is up, oil is down and there's buying of USTs. Why do I get the feeling that this would be the week to push Initial Claims under 400k?

Anonymous said...

Why do I get the feeling that this would be the week to push Initial Claims under 400k?


b/c you understand what would make good Theater?

Anonymous said...

AAIP @ 05:29

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