AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: With everything I'm doing overseas I'm surprised US markets are still ignoring me.

Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Made a new 0.0% retrace high. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1293.24). QE2infinity. Couldn't hold 1300.

Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still heading for the 14.6% retrace (77.54). Below all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 78.05).

Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below SMA(21). No daily 3LB (reversal is 16.11). Stuck in the "no fear" zone. Currently has a monthly 3LB reversal.

Bearish long day (bearish engulfing in a down trend…hmmm). Almost below SMA(144). Midpoint below EMA(10). 0.0% retrace holding. Tested and failed the 38.2% retrace (1328.33). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1346.50). Must have the precious.

Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Well above its 50.0% retrace at 1.3506. Still above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.3629). Probably will test its 61.8% retrace (1.3891).

Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Tested but failed its 50.0% retrace (40.47) for the 2nd time. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.47).

Bearish long day. Failed the 14.6% retrace at 33.86. Still above SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 32.36). Failed to hold upper trend line.

Bullish short day. Still below SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 5212.60).

Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Held the 14.6% retrace (16.41). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 16.72).

Hanging man day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Failed test of SMA(55). Almost above 38.2% retrace (12.01). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 12.30). Still above weekly 3LB mid (11.76).

Bullish harami day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below SMA(21). Failed lower trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 94.12). Breakout is still down.

Bearish long day. Back below SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). Closed back below the 61.8% retrace (86.31). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 87.87).


The Bond Report 1.27.11

A solid 7y auction today. Treasuries were stronger in the afternoon. The long bond tickled 4.62% before the miserable claims number came out. Otherwise not much action to relate.

Corpies: LQD 0.21%; AGG 0.18%; JNK 0.02%; HYG 0.13%
Govies: TLT 0.35%; IEI 0.19%; TIP -0.12%
Munis: IQI 0.08%; MUB -0.13%
Mortgages: MBB 0.13%
Hedgies: TBT -0.64%

GDP ahead tomorrow. Bear in mind that with the huge jump in $gaso, this might actually trump the consensus of 3.5%. We think any dip in high quality bonds tomorrow would be a great entry opportunity. Looking at you, TLT, LQD, AGG etc. We would sell JNK on strength.

Monday brings Chicago PMI, maybe reality intrudes.

Equities 14% long. No shorts.
Bonds. 11% HYG/JNK, 5% TIP, 3% LQD, 10% AGG, 6% TLT. 35%.

Be careful out there.


Anonymous said...

Bring it. Sarko goes postal on St Jamie.

Anonymous said...

that TNX chart, still, looks like it could Power-dive, in a two-day move, to the 144sma..

this Chart

looks 'constructive', yes?

c: 91.44 +0.41


ben22 said...

sorry, but for me, the blame it all on the banks stuff is getting really old

especially coming from a politician

Anonymous said...

A nice takedown of sell-side equity analysts by Mish:

CNBC had a bearish sell side analyst on this morning who covers CAT. The guy has been neutral on the stock and missed the post QE2 run up, perhaps b/c he doesn't think about macro. Anyway they crucified him, and he stuck to his guns, I felt bad for the guy.

Anonymous said...

I don't feel bad for anyone who goes on CNBC and expects it to be a fair venue for non-Dow36000 opinions.

ben22 said...


If you're out there

does the EUR look like it's completing an ending diagonal to you?

move up % position in DX at all?

bob said...

A growing topic, and possibly related to, imo

1. DXY oversold
2. Egypt, suez canal

Compare the graphic from alphaville-

To the USD-

Do spreads like that predate dollar rallies?

Can anyone come up with a better picture of the wti/brent spread?

Anonymous said...


what's with the March prediction-

what of February or April or May or June . . . .

Anonymous said...

interesting article- although I am sure CV has this stuff down cold-

what we can learn from sport's betting-

Andy T said...

The Euro (And DXY) patterns look very, very interesting to me here....

As in, interesting in a way that makes me want to fade the moves....

Agree. It looks "funny."

Andy T said...

This was big day in the life of AT. Not for market/trading related stuff today. Should be able to share in a few weeks time....

Life is good...."for reals yo"

Anonymous said...

dude- you don't throw out something like that without a little "teaser"

Andy T said...


I dabbled in the DXY today...not for anything I would post on, or advertise, just trying to dabble on ultra-short term stuff...

Was buying DXY.

bob said...

My "feeling" on the EUR-

Lots of people tripping over themselves to short it. Oddly, that is holding it up, every time "they" run the top they get another bunch of stops and buyers.

Anonymous said...

"The jury has the power to bring a verdict in the teeth of both law and fact."
-- Oliver Wendell Holmes
(1841-1935) US Supreme Court Justice, also known as "The Great Dissenter"
Source: US Supreme Court, 1902

"The jury has the right to determine both the law and the facts."
-- Samuel Chase
(1741-1811) Signatory to the United States Declaration of Independence as a representative of Maryland, Associate Justice of the United States Supreme Court
Source: US Supreme Court, 1796

"A society that will trade
a little liberty for a little order
will lose both, and deserve neither."
-- Thomas Jefferson
(1743-1826), US Founding Father, drafted the Declaration of Independence, 3rd US President

re: Paperback v. Mayo

the EUR is 'overcooked' -- German 'Exporters' starting b**** -- fade the thing

starting to 'roll over' (above)


looks like it's ready to 'drop from the sky'..


Andy T said...

Ahab. Ha! Forget I ever mentioned. Though, I promise not to "under-deliver."

Anonymous said...


someone have a 'bun in the oven'?

Andy T said...

"A society that will trade
a little liberty for a little order
will lose both, and deserve neither."

I LOVE that quote....always have.

Anonymous said...

"A society that will trade
a little liberty for a little order
will lose both, and deserve neither."

Hoffer- so true- all this talk of civility- what a joke- folks should be in other people's faces when it comes to losing any liberties- government's across the world will gladly take it away from you


I'm intrigued

bob said...


Don't think it dies that easily, IMO, looking for either-

One hell of an antenna over 1.38

or a gap up after the weekend to end it.

I've been stung, call me cautious...GDP tomorrow too.

Jennifer said...

okay, this may fall into the same category as Ben's mom calling...but significant market events have a way of happening when I can't be at the computer. Tomorrow morning is one of those times (figures, two big economic numbers, right?) but there you have it. I'm holding some shorts, so prepare for new highs. There you have it.

J said...

Hmmm...fingers repeating themselves there a little...whoops.

Andy T said...


What's interesting is how microcosms (of individuals) will inevitably go to "command and control" type of environments when it becomes necessary for those "in control."

'Tis a slippery slope.

I think that's what ultimately makes this the greatest country in the world--people don't like to be silenced for "too long."

I don't know if you caught it, but Obama sounded like a Republican/Libertarian during the SOTU. Funny stuff, that.

Amazing what Elections every two years can accomplish...

AmenRa said...

Futures lower but still very close to fair value. Economic numbers tomorrow need to be BTE or that failure to hold 1300 will become more a very big problem.

I-Man said...

@ Ahab

Just some crazy math...

But basically, I had been planning on a high for this month, but it just doesnt look right. The prime time for that was back on around the 12th, and we didnt break. Tomorrow is absolutely the last shot for a Jan high I think.

Just didnt have enough numbers lining up to have anything go down in Feb.

March however, early march, does have a great probability of a trend change event according to my work.

I really like the idea of a June low also, and that happens to line up with some of Armstrong's work, I just dont see a decline emerging here that takes that long, what I see brewing is going to be quick and dirty... and probably scary.

I do not believe that we will make new lows in US equity markets. I'm looking about 9900 on dow as lowest, absent some type of intraday puker low that immediately gets rebought.

These arent "predictions" per se, or even top calls, the bet is just for fun. I dont swing or position trade off this stuff, so I hope no one else does either.

I think of them more as places to watch out for, time when trend is ripe to change, nothing set in stone.

I'm just in the tip of the iceberg of cycle theory, so this is a work in progress.

I-Man said...

The primary reason I dont think we top here is because its not bullish enough... I want this shit to end like it began, in a cacophony of emotion... just on the upside this time. And what's more symmetrical than having a top at a major anniversary of a low? Cycle inversion.

I'm actually looking more at the next low than this high, and that is what is influencing my current view.

AmenRa said...


I want to see sell side analysts telling everyone to JBTFD as the market continues a relentless move down. Then you might see them running down the street being chased by their investors.

AmenRa said...


If there is a move down I'll be looking at weekly mids, weekly reversals and monthly mids. These levels are where BTD becomes STR.

Anonymous said...


thanks for the insight . . .good stuff . . I like the I-man vibe on things . . .


STR = Sell the Rip?

I-Man said...

I do think we will get a shortable move that lasts a few months, and I also think alot of people will be freakin out... it will feel like we're going for new lows... The other side of having some vicious volatility, is that to trade it you're really going to need to be on your toes and really watch the shorterm charts. Its going to be a hit and run kinda deal, not a trend rider... unless you have balls of steel... like Steve Barry balls of steel.

p. gristle said...

Must be the top is in sight because I feel like I am wasting my gifts.

Woe is me, what good is it to be alive, is there no justice in the universe, &c.

I-Man said...

Long live the Gristle.

Long live America.

I-Man said...

And Kind Bud...

And Budweiser...

AmenRa said...



I-Man said...

If Bucky and the market start going up together again next week, then it will all make sense.

karen said...

well, Andy, had me in a tizzy as well! we should all give him grief about that underhanded slip.. as if the market doesn't torture us enough!!!

Jenn @ 8:59, woe-is-you! i presume you've prepared and maybe it will be a non-starter!

So mad at Bruce for recommending True Grit! I trusted him (and everyone else that told me to see it.) Hated the ending.. and it rather ruined my date night.. sighing, not in pleasure.

karen said...

definitely worth a read:

Post a Comment


This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.