TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Corner 1.27.11

Morning Corner 1.27.11

NFLX (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=up
high= 195.00
rev= 171.29; mid= 183.15

Well let's see. AH is showing a print of 202.10 so there was definitely a ramp after earnings. I'm still wondering how long their model will hold up since they don't own the infrastructure to transport data. But until then JBTFD.

Gold/Silver (weekly info)
WEEKLY REVERSAL new high 48.811
trend=no
direction=up (1 bar)
rev= 46.062; mid= 47.433

The pressure to get silver down seems to be increasing. Silver price is dropping faster than the price of gold. Have they given up trying to push down gold and are putting all of their weight behind pushing down silver? Since COMEX grandfathered those who had outsized positions I'd say watch your back.

It's bad enough the SPX is sitting just under 1300 with the EOM a few days away. So if you're short I'd tell you to...

...that's only if the problems in Europe don't escalate further and crash their markets.

***Brian Sack to the PD's (re: recent auctions) "Give It/Them To Me Baby"

218 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 1 – 200 of 218 Newer› Newest»

Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-27/asia-stocks-won-advance-for-fourth-day-as-wheat-oil-rise-china-rebounds.html

Yen Weakens, Stocks Fluctuate After S&P Cuts Japan Debt Rating

...Roh roh. Little brother has no clothes. Can big brother be far behind?; January 27, 2011 at 7:15 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/27/business/27pension.html?_r=2&partner=rss&emc=rss

"Moody’s Investors Service has begun to recalculate the states’ debt burdens in a way that includes unfunded pensions, something states and others have ardently resisted until now."

...Roh Roh number 2. Don't they realize these we can't all be Greece? Can we?

But I ain't worried. Jimmy Cramer is watching for icebergs....; January 27, 2011 at 7:23 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-26/u-s-muni-funds-lose-5-75-billion-in-11th-consecutive-week-of-withdrawals.html

U.S. Muni-Bond Funds Had $5.75 Billion in Net Withdrawals in Past Week

..Roh roh number 3. Just getting started?; January 27, 2011 at 7:33 AM
AmenRa said...: S&P Downgrades Japan from AA to AA- http://tinyurl.com/6xgey83

US next?; January 27, 2011 at 8:18 AM
AmenRa said...: Initial claims WTE. Durable goods WTE. And away we go...; January 27, 2011 at 8:31 AM
Anonymous said...: http://www.grahampackaging.com/#index.cfm

ticker GRM

appraise the Short side..

AAIP; January 27, 2011 at 8:32 AM
Jennifer said...: MEH -- they might be very busy retooling all of their packaging so that it looks the same but holds 15% less product. Maybe everyone will buy more peanut butter and dish soap faster since they will run out sooner now that the containers are smaller.; January 27, 2011 at 8:47 AM
Jennifer said...: New highs in NFLX? UFB. If I miss shorting this thing when the time is right I will be seriously ticked off.; January 27, 2011 at 8:50 AM
Anonymous said...: 300 MPG turbodiesel hybrid from VW; January 27, 2011 at 8:56 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Morning room. Ain't life grand! Whodathought debt downgrades today might be the biggest story of the year...I think they might.; January 27, 2011 at 9:01 AM
Anonymous said...: J-

I hear ya on that..

was thinking about
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=GRM

in specific..

thinking that 'parabolas', like that one, soon exhaust themselves, and, at least, 'partially' re-trace..

therefore, the mention of the 'Short side'..

AAIP; January 27, 2011 at 9:15 AM
Anonymous said...: "Apparently not satisfied with being unable to fulfill its dual target of price stability and maximum employment the Federal Reserve has set itself a third mandate: higher asset prices.

Speaking on CNBC at a Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation-sponsored forum on small business lending last week, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke was asked how, in essence, his $600 billion quantitative easing programme could be called a success when interest rates and commodity prices had actually risen in response.

"Our policies have contributed to a stronger stock market, just as they did in March of 2009, when we did the last iteration (of quantitative easing). The S&P 500 is up about 20 percent plus and the Russell 2000 is up 30 pct plus."

so . . .because Bernanke readily regurgitates stock market performance . . .we really know its all about the stock market-

guess the question is- when does the market expect QE3 news? Will the market get nervous in April? May? if QE3 isn't put out there as a possibility by the then?; January 27, 2011 at 9:15 AM
Jennifer said...: Agree -- looks like it should at a minimum go revisit 15.; January 27, 2011 at 9:16 AM
AmenRa said...: http://tinyurl.com/69ye5ev
Here It Comes: US Suspends New Issuance Under Supplementary Financing Program, $200 Billion Liquidity Gusher Imminent

Earlier this week we predicted that the US Treasury would wind down its SFP program, unleashing $200 billion in 56-day non-rollable "Fed bonds" on the market. The Treasury has just confirmed that starting February 3, this will be precisely the case. Per the Treasury, supplementary financing account to fall to USD 5bln, with the reason being the traditional explanation: decreasing funds in account as country nears debt ceiling.

As the revised table below shows, each Thursday beginning February 3 we will now see an incremental $25 billion in extra liquidity as the maturing 56-Day CMB is not rolled.

from zerohedge; January 27, 2011 at 9:17 AM
Anonymous said...: Pre-Market Real-Time: 208.95 25.92 (14.16%) 9:14AM EST

NFLX

here:
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=NFLX&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

showed nice support @~180..

70+ x E = cheap !, no?

AAIP; January 27, 2011 at 9:21 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: The modern textbook of distorted economic theory continues to be written..interesting times...

Ugh. More snow overnight.; January 27, 2011 at 9:29 AM
Anonymous said...: AR,

re: 09:17

if those 'Bills' are coming to Market, to be Sold, isn't that an 'anti-'Liquidity "Gusher"/Sponge ?

AAIP; January 27, 2011 at 9:30 AM
karen said...: morning... nflx a joke.. really.. i don't know how they do their books or what these idiots are on.. reminds me of siri.. shaking my head.; January 27, 2011 at 9:33 AM
karen said...: so what fundamentals do we have pushing the market to these heights?

the economy and pomo

in 2007, MS came up with an explanation, there were too few tickers to meet demand.. wish i'd saved that report.. anyway, turned out to be leverage..

Hey, weren't we talking recently that margin was back at those same levels again?; January 27, 2011 at 9:39 AM
karen said...: http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/1/27/a-painful-day-for-netflix-nflx-shorts.html

i have to subscribe today..; January 27, 2011 at 9:42 AM
Anonymous said...: "Requests for unemployment benefits up due to snow"

When state offices, which had closed, reopened and people were able to file applications that pushed the number of requests up sharply, the analyst said.

was there a headline from the other week stating UE application took a dip because people couldn't get to the state offices to file?; January 27, 2011 at 9:49 AM
AmenRa said...: ahab

Probably.; January 27, 2011 at 9:53 AM
karen said...: 101 Days And Counting...
WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 26, 2011 AT 07:38PM
The S&P 500 closed above its 50-day moving average (DMA) yesterday for the 100th straight trading day. This marks the longest streak above this moving average in close to four years. It is also the 16th time in the history of the index that the S&P remained above its 50-DMA for more than 100 trading days. In a report we sent out yesterday to Bespoke Premium clients we looked to see how the market has historically performed in the months following similar streaks in the past. Does the market typically keep going higher? Does it correct? Or does it just trade sideways?

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/1/26/101-days-and-counting.html; January 27, 2011 at 9:58 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/eta20110088.htm

Kind of interesting to put an eyeball on the government release today.

Federal employee unemployment claims are almost double 12 months ago, and the trend seems to be increasing.; January 27, 2011 at 9:58 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: "Requests for unemployment benefits up due to snow"

...But the MSM did not mention this as a reason then for BTE numbers...

...the Jim Cramerization of 'Merica..; January 27, 2011 at 10:00 AM
Jennifer said...: Interesting H&S setting up on my current fav MOS.; January 27, 2011 at 10:02 AM
Anonymous said...: But the MSM did not mention this as a reason then for BTE numbers

exactly my point . . .; January 27, 2011 at 10:05 AM
karen said...: Incredible news in case you haven't heard! : )

Pending home sales rise 2% in December, marking fifth increase in six months
01/27/2011 10:02:16 AM; January 27, 2011 at 10:06 AM
karen said...: Anyone up for UUP? (i thot not.); January 27, 2011 at 10:08 AM
AmenRa said...: Bruce
Numbers (when BTE) speak for themselves. When the numbers are WTE an excuse is required immediately. This is to stop the sheeple from peeking behind the curtain.; January 27, 2011 at 10:08 AM
karen said...: DRV at NEW 52 week low!!; January 27, 2011 at 10:09 AM
AmenRa said...: Great. The SPX tagged 1300 right before Brain Sack goes to work. Bah humbug.; January 27, 2011 at 10:11 AM
karen said...: new high in $wlsh today too.. broadest measure of the economy ?? well, not anymore..; January 27, 2011 at 10:13 AM
karen said...: $rut and $bkx not playing catch-up..; January 27, 2011 at 10:14 AM
Anonymous said...: "Banker Pay Fueled Risk That Hobbled Economy, Crisis Panel Says"

it's funny- you get a government panel to study and conclude what everyone already knew; January 27, 2011 at 10:15 AM
karen said...: even breakingnews is breaking the news, and i thot they only covered catastophes, horror, and murder: Breaking News

S&P 500 index touches 1,300 level for the first time since September 2008 http://bit.ly/gg4Xp7; January 27, 2011 at 10:15 AM
AmenRa said...: Wilshire 5k just retraced 76.4% of its 10/07-3/09 down move.; January 27, 2011 at 10:18 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/procter-gamble-quarterly-profit-falls-28-2011-01-27

"NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Procter & Gamble Co. said Thursday its fiscal second-quarter earnings fell 28% due in part to higher costs that squeezed the company’s profit margin."

...Thank goodness commodity prices won't affect the wage earner. Leftback would not like it if fish and chips prices skyrocketed...; January 27, 2011 at 10:20 AM
Anonymous said...: "Stop Loss Orders May Lock In Losses"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-27/bankers-pay-fueled-risk-as-regulators-were-outbid-for-talent-panel-says.html

I've often wondered the same thing- whether market makers have programs that find stops and trigger them . . .; January 27, 2011 at 10:23 AM
karen said...: ahab.. did you post wrong bloomberg article?; January 27, 2011 at 10:26 AM
karen said...: i've completely lost my sense of humour now:

S&P 500 briefly tops 1,300 level, boosted by rally in Netflix
01/27/2011 10:23:22 AM; January 27, 2011 at 10:27 AM
I-Man said...: LOL Ahab, thats ALL they do.

:); January 27, 2011 at 10:28 AM
Anonymous said...: just trying to keep everyone on their toes- correct "stop loss" article below-

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-27/stop-loss-orders-may-lock-in-losses-when-stocks-plunge-in-volatile-markets.html

I-man- has always my experience- even if well below the support line; January 27, 2011 at 10:33 AM
Anonymous said...: pending home sales rose faster than expected in December after the prior month's sales were revised lower

so . . .ugh . . .are the sales increases calculated from the revised lower figures?

lol; January 27, 2011 at 10:36 AM
karen said...: Just teasing you, Ahab.. but hilarious that they are just figuring out about that now!; January 27, 2011 at 10:37 AM
Anonymous said...: Stocks Up; Dow Passes 12,000; S&P Near 1,300

wow . . .this is more exciting than seeing a girl in a tight sweater . . .; January 27, 2011 at 10:38 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: or seeing a girl out of a tight sweater...

(substituting for Leftback until he arrives...); January 27, 2011 at 10:40 AM
Anonymous said...: Stocks up on "the economy", "nflx", & "snow".

UFB

effin banana republic; January 27, 2011 at 10:51 AM
Anonymous said...: nobody cares about the AZ shooting, riots in Egypt, or anything else.

Dow 12,000/S&P 1300!!!!!

Pathetic!; January 27, 2011 at 10:53 AM
Robert Van Winkle said...: Where is Lefty today? I was wondering what he thought about TLT now...; January 27, 2011 at 10:53 AM
Anonymous said...: BinT-

thinking of my junior high school days- girls, tight sweaters . . . awkward moments when the bell rung . . .books placed strategically in front of certain body parts while getting to the next class . . .

I know we've all been there; January 27, 2011 at 10:54 AM
karen said...: Bruce.. keep that avatar!
RVW.. snow bound/lazy.. take your pick! TLT not broken yet.. still in a downtrend.. may see 88.. we've talked about that.. LB doesn't think 89 is in cards but we shall see.. any day it could break up or down..; January 27, 2011 at 10:57 AM
Jennifer said...: I remember a Judy Blume book about that. I keep steering my oldest daughter away from the Judy Blume aisle in the library.; January 27, 2011 at 10:58 AM
karen said...: good going BB: Housing Wire
Freddie Mac mortgage rates on the rise across the board http://goo.gl/fb/V5kxb; January 27, 2011 at 11:00 AM
Anonymous said...: snow bound/lazy

speaking of snow . . .what a show getting home from my office yesterday . . .

gridlock nightmare out here in DC; January 27, 2011 at 11:01 AM
Anonymous said...: gotta roll . . .all be good-; January 27, 2011 at 11:03 AM
karen said...: This should cheer Chet! Yahoo! Finance
$GM to speed Volt sales to entire US by year's end.
http://yhoo.it/eTS7uc; January 27, 2011 at 11:18 AM
I-Man said...: Anon @ 10:53

Markets go up on bad news, and down on good news all the time...

That is trading 101.; January 27, 2011 at 11:25 AM
AmenRa said...: Run Forest Run!!!; January 27, 2011 at 11:27 AM
karen said...: GLD under 129..; January 27, 2011 at 11:29 AM
I-Man said...: Ra, we are just alter ego's I guess...

Forest just ran right into my bid.; January 27, 2011 at 11:32 AM
karen said...: I told ya USO 36 was a given.. now even lower i hope.. 34.50 would be nice.; January 27, 2011 at 11:32 AM
karen said...: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-27/aig-shouldn-t-exist-ex-chairman-golub-says-urging-breakup-of-insurer.html; January 27, 2011 at 11:35 AM
I-Man said...: Karen, I cant wait to get a shot at the GLD around 110... maybe before summer.; January 27, 2011 at 11:36 AM
Trading 101 said...: That's not even what I'm referring to.

I'm simply referring to narrowness in thought process. People suffering, starving, and dying all over the world while small bunch of fat and happy others seem only to care about 12000 or 1300 and how their central banker plans to keep them there.; January 27, 2011 at 11:43 AM
AmenRa said...: I-Man

Since yesterday was not a long day candle wise I don't see the SPX correcting just yet. If today turns into engulfing then it's possible.; January 27, 2011 at 11:44 AM
I-Man said...: Sounds like that has more to do with a lack of concern for humanity, rather than a preoccupation with financial markets.

Maybe you should turn off the CNBC, and get off the "FED" dope.; January 27, 2011 at 11:48 AM
Jennifer said...: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/pomo-comes-huge-submitted-accepted-ratio-market-dumps; January 27, 2011 at 11:48 AM
I-Man said...: Ra 11:44

I like that...; January 27, 2011 at 11:49 AM
karen said...: obviously my ex-husband is hanging with a different set then I am: "I absolutely do not understand WTF is going on. [Bernekie] and bond purchases is now being thought of as genius."

this is gonna get very ugly very fast.. the market is stupid as a stump.. and the money/margin will fall over itself trying to get out..; January 27, 2011 at 11:54 AM
karen said...: i probably can't watch this: NicTrades Nicola
Stoned to death: Horrific video of execution of girl, 19, killed by Afghan Taliban for running from arranged marriage http://bit.ly/e9pRvB; January 27, 2011 at 11:57 AM
I-Man said...: I dont mean to be harsh on you Anon, I can see that your heart is in the right place.

I only urge you to come with Light, and not Dark...

Saying things like:
"Fat and happy who dont care about the suffering and starving, et al"...

That is a statement of darkness, judgement, condemnation...

Instead, why not channel that energy into something good? Give 1/10th of your income to a charity of your choice, feed a homeless person, volunteer at an old folks home and read them a book...

Be the light in the world, dont come with darkness, when you do that, you manifest the very evil that your heart wishes to condemn.

The Fed part...

All I will say, is that I have found it much more relaxing, and rewarding, to view the markets as being dictated by JAH... not by banker petulance.

Obviously, they have an impact on markets, but they do not have control. They are only trying to do their best to ensure what they care about most... financial prosperity.

Are their hands clean? Nope.

Do their actions cause unintended and painful consequences? Absolutely.

Are you powerless to mope around in gloom, and be blinded by a hatred towards them?

Well, are you?

Thats all, descending soap box stairs...

Continue on.; January 27, 2011 at 12:01 PM
karen said...: if copper continues to rollover.. as i think it will (along with crude and gold) indices will follow..; January 27, 2011 at 12:04 PM
HW said...: indices; January 27, 2011 at 12:08 PM
Anonymous said...: Forex & Bonds Last Change Change %
EUR/USD 1.3695 -0.0002 -0.01%
USD/JPY 82.99 +0.74 +0.90%
GBP/USD 1.5905 -0.0008 -0.05%
5-Year Treasury 2.035 +0.034 +1.70%
10-Year Treasury 3.442 +0.014 +0.41%
30-Year Treasury 4.613 +0.015 +0.33%
http://finviz.com/; January 27, 2011 at 12:08 PM
ben22 said...: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=SPY&m=2011-02

take a look at the volume on the puts 125-127

so far as I can tell the combo trades being put on in there today are all bearish.

b22.; January 27, 2011 at 12:12 PM
ben22 said...: TNX, approaching the fifth touch of ~3.5%; January 27, 2011 at 12:15 PM
ben22 said...: oh, I should have said 123-127 on the Feb puts on SPY; January 27, 2011 at 12:17 PM
karen said...: deja vu when i read about the hermes (egypt hermes index down -6% yesterday down -10% today).. remember the precipitous overnight $ssec drop in the summer of 2007?? had an immediate impact on our market.. butterfly wings will be heard just the same.

egypt is not pakistan..; January 27, 2011 at 12:20 PM
karen said...: VIX Sonar Report: May/June Put stupid
http://bit.ly/eomDFA; January 27, 2011 at 12:29 PM
ben22 said...: @Ahab,

I know you aren't around but hoping you come back to read

Regarding your quote from Bernanke, I'm curious, when you look at the Fed's balance sheet, especially the one's that break down what it's composed of, is that what you see, that QE1 started in March of 2009?

if so, could you explain that to me....; January 27, 2011 at 12:33 PM
Anonymous said...: -I-Man

You need not have been offended by my first comment. It was not directed at you or anyone else.

It was just a general statement. "Pathetic" I believe descibes the situation as a whole. I have no doubt it will rectify itself in due course.

Aside from whatever way I behave which is in better harmony, I think it's still apt to point out in rememberance that at present, the situation is in fact pathetic.; January 27, 2011 at 12:45 PM
I-Man said...: This shizz has doji written all over its grill.; January 27, 2011 at 12:49 PM
I-Man said...: I wasnt offended Anon, if anything, I'm just tired of hearing it, and it triggered some emo...

If people spent half the energy they spend worrying about the negatives in the world, and instead focused it on being thankful for what they do have, and trying to manifest goodness...

Then there would be a lot less darkness.

I apologize for getting emo...; January 27, 2011 at 12:52 PM
I-Man said...: Re: Tape

Probably a decent shot at shorting a pivot high on the 5/1min DIA chart...

I realize no one else here even looks at the YM but lonely little I.; January 27, 2011 at 12:54 PM
karen said...: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/egypt-opposition-leader-mohamed-elbaradei-arrives-cairo-lead-tomorrows-massive-protest; January 27, 2011 at 12:55 PM
karen said...: "Luckily in the US, where nothing matters, not SHIBOR which just hit a ridiculous 8.4%..."

(from the article above..); January 27, 2011 at 12:56 PM
karen said...: I once was a goldbug and crudebull.. now i just shake my head..; January 27, 2011 at 12:58 PM
karen said...: China Unveils Property Tax http://on.wsj.com/iaALmJ; January 27, 2011 at 12:59 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-27/rice-imports-by-bangladesh-to-double-on-panic-buying-prices-hasan-says.html

Rice Imports by Bangladesh to Double on ‘Panic-Buying’

"The import target was raised to 1.2 million metric tons for the year ending June 30, from 600,000 tons set in November, said Badrul Hasan, director for procurement at the nation’s Directorate General of Food. That’s triple the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s estimate of 400,000 tons.

“The reason for the increase is panic-buying,” Hasan said in a phone interview from Dhaka yesterday. “There’s a sense of insecurity among the public. People who usually need 10 kilos buy more than 20 kilos. When farmers need to sell, they withhold their stocks” expecting a windfall as prices advance, he said."

..Ah, commodities, where is thy sting? 'Tis but a flesh wound..; January 27, 2011 at 1:00 PM
karen said...: "This Is Why This SHIBOR Surge Is Different Than 2007 And We Won't See A Massive Selloff In Equities"

http://www.businessinsider.com/shibor-surge-2011-1#ixzz1CGAxQicO

I loved the It is Different This Time; January 27, 2011 at 1:01 PM
karen said...: Bruce.. thanks for that post.. all these riots and uprisings (not to mention EXTREME weather catastrophes) have reminded me that you can't eat gold or oil.. got rice, guns, and ammo?; January 27, 2011 at 1:06 PM
karen said...: laughing..; January 27, 2011 at 1:07 PM
karen said...: I-Man.. I've been keenly focused on the DIA and indu for days..; January 27, 2011 at 1:10 PM
I-Man said...: Got any camo panties?; January 27, 2011 at 1:10 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: I know Karen...I have talked to a number of restaurant owners here in town, and they are trying not to raise prices because of increased food costs.....; January 27, 2011 at 1:12 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: I-Man @ 1:10:

You too are falling under the evil Leftback spell. You may need an exorcism...; January 27, 2011 at 1:15 PM
bob said...: YAAAAAWWWNNNNN

Too quiet...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kY84MRnxVzo; January 27, 2011 at 1:15 PM
karen said...: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/has-the-dow-entered-a-new-trading-range/; January 27, 2011 at 1:21 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Bob,

Yellow card!

(Although I had to watch it all the way to the end to be sure there were no redeeming qualities in the video..); January 27, 2011 at 1:21 PM
I-Man said...: I know Bruce, I regretted it as soon as I posted it...

Besides, I'm pretty sure that chicks that wear Advantage Max4D panties only exist in duckhunter heaven.; January 27, 2011 at 1:24 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Hello !!

Those 7s were gobbled up eagerly.

Bid/Cover 2.85
Coupon Rate 2.625%
Total Amount $29 B
Yield Awarded 2.744%; January 27, 2011 at 1:26 PM
Anonymous said...: I-Man,

Shaking my head.... ROR.; January 27, 2011 at 1:26 PM
Anonymous said...: EEM and GDX are weak again.

I cannot convey to you what a disgusting mess the city is today, brown puddles everywhere and people getting very irritated. The Park is another story, ethereally beautiful, almost as lovely as our K.; January 27, 2011 at 1:30 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: 4.60-4.62% area on TYX has been pretty solid.

GDP number tomorrow is supposed to be radioactive.
I wonder...; January 27, 2011 at 1:32 PM
I-Man said...: Got this short on a tight leash...

Stale usually equals, Bail.; January 27, 2011 at 1:34 PM
I-Man said...: Here we go...

Thinking we gots some unfinished biz down at the o'night lows...; January 27, 2011 at 1:38 PM
bob said...: That's funny I. I have always thought that there was a secret tribe of women running around the woods up here, Camo would of course be necessary.

I keep looking for them on my long walks, no evidence as of yet, but still looking.; January 27, 2011 at 1:43 PM
I-Man said...: I hear they're real responsive to a well toned mallard feeder call, Bobby.; January 27, 2011 at 1:44 PM
Jennifer said...: They'd need arctic camo here. This is ridiculous. Everyone on my street has completely given up ...no driveway has been shoveled in weeks.; January 27, 2011 at 1:46 PM
karen said...: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-27/lehman-sued-by-pulsar-claiming-450-million-taken-from-segregated-account.html

and in other news: the total losses of Egypt Stock Market today 64 Bill EGP around 10 Bill USD #Egypt $EGPT http://egyptetf.com; January 27, 2011 at 1:47 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: global warming may be your demise, Jennifer.; January 27, 2011 at 1:48 PM
Jennifer said...: My husband grew up on a farm. He is always quick to point out that cold winters help kill bugs. There should hardly be any this summer.; January 27, 2011 at 1:51 PM
karen said...: Jennifer.. just opened up the house.. breaking 70 easily in the sun here today.. it was colder in than out!; January 27, 2011 at 1:52 PM
I-Man said...: Might be a nice 30 pt dow drop setting up here...; January 27, 2011 at 1:52 PM
bob said...: I, give wti a look...; January 27, 2011 at 1:53 PM
karen said...: aren't crude longs taking pause with the drop--despite tensions in middle east and dollar drop?? china tightening and US ECONOMY to blame?; January 27, 2011 at 1:55 PM
I-Man said...: Dont tempt I.; January 27, 2011 at 1:56 PM
karen said...: CBO's Elmendorf: 'Very Difficult' To Know If Debt Crisis Looms http://goo.gl/AOFsL

"..the longer the U.S. waits to begin reducing its budget deficits the harder it will be to enact policies that are not "disruptive" to the economy."; January 27, 2011 at 1:58 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: People

The US debt crisis is not imminent. Look at JGBs. Did they melt down today on the S&P downgrade? I think not. These problems are far away. EVEN FOR JAPAN.

The silly little markets always melt down first. The bond markets matter, and if they blow up, things will get ugly. No, the liquidity will be drained from the yappy little markets first, the big dogs will be fine.

If you want to look for a meltdown, commodities and small caps are the place to look. China and other EMs are also in the frame.

Anyone getting long Egypt? I'd wait a few days....; January 27, 2011 at 2:05 PM
ben22 said...: regarding AAII, or any sentiment readings

sentiment moderates at tops which, it's far more typical to see sentiment indicators hit extremes prior to the top and they moderate at the actual top

as for the chart, that's a massive trading range on that chart so the top level of the red line should be broken by a significant/meaningful amount before drawing any conclusions on how to trade it. From a trading perspective I think it's valid to argue the breakout should be 3% or more above the top of the thick red line, so if the top of the range is roughly 11,800 then we need to see 12,154 before drawing any conclusions about it, not that far away but considering all other technical evidence that will be no easy task.

What's more, it is probable if that happens due to the quickness and size of the rally off the march 09 lows that a retest then of the lower end of the red line would occur after the intial breakout and before the market were to move truly higher.

the people putting on the big spreads today on SPY stand to make millions if it plays out like I describe above.

b22; January 27, 2011 at 2:06 PM
Anonymous said...: The massive meltdown in JGBs. Oh wait...

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/japan/; January 27, 2011 at 2:07 PM
I-Man said...: Yeah, dont sweat the debt... aint like we're gonna pay it off anyway.

:); January 27, 2011 at 2:07 PM
karen said...: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/the-three-trillion-dollar-war-2/; January 27, 2011 at 2:07 PM
karen said...: TBT gave it up.. i still thing the equity meltdown is coming..; January 27, 2011 at 2:07 PM
Anonymous said...: Keep your eye on EEM, FXI and GDX weakness.
Short the weak, not the strong.; January 27, 2011 at 2:08 PM
Anonymous said...: aint like we're gonna pay it off anyway.

No. Your kids are... crying and sobbing....; January 27, 2011 at 2:08 PM
ben22 said...: "Look at JGBs. Did they melt down today on the S&P downgrade? I think not."

And why would they have. The ratings agencies are truly worthless, today the S&P told the market what it's already known about Japan for over a decade now.; January 27, 2011 at 2:09 PM
Anonymous said...: i still thing the equity meltdown is coming..

We almost had a meltdown on your icon change yesterday.; January 27, 2011 at 2:09 PM
Anonymous said...: S&P told the market what it's already known about Japan for over a decade now.

++ and ROR.; January 27, 2011 at 2:10 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: IQI retreating after its rally. MUB too.

The muni melt is like a tuna melt, we will be eating it every week.; January 27, 2011 at 2:12 PM
Anonymous said...: No wonder some traders opt to wake up at 5 in So Cal:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-27/winter-storm-may-ease-as-new-yorkers-start-the-day-update1-.html; January 27, 2011 at 2:14 PM
Anonymous said...: Anyone want to handicap GDP after the appalling data today?
WTE, DGDF GGUF or BTE, SPX HOY? ROR.; January 27, 2011 at 2:15 PM
ben22 said...: also, as someone pointed out first in that slide at BR's

that super star gigantor H&S looks better than ever now on the DOW/S&P having being at 12k and 1.3k respectively.

it's damn near textbook with a down sloping neckline and perfect volume

I'm not sure what to make of it, I just note it's there, it's such a giant pattern there's no great way to trade it without trying to "call a top"; January 27, 2011 at 2:19 PM
karen said...: IBM Whipsaw Shows Market-Wide Structural Problem

http://www.cnbc.com/id/41261126/; January 27, 2011 at 2:19 PM
karen said...: i can't find a uso chart that says buy me on any time scale..; January 27, 2011 at 2:22 PM
karen said...: and looking at dia gives me the shivers.. who in their right mind would buy that here and now..; January 27, 2011 at 2:23 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: NLY and CIM paid divvies today. BIG juicy ones.

The reflation smarties don't like these stocks, b/c "when rates rise", the cost of doing business will rise for these REITs and dividends will fall.

Guess what AFIT2BNL thinks of this argument? We'll see who is right, equity sell-side analysts or the bond guys.; January 27, 2011 at 2:23 PM
Anonymous said...: Reflation and EMs to sell off, dividend stocks to gain.
The best trade for 2011. Sell your miners, buy utilities.

Such an odd market, many garish and overpriced whores co-existing with undervalued virtue.; January 27, 2011 at 2:25 PM
Jennifer said...: From Karen's link:

"Traders tell me that all the trades were done on the New York Exchange, where, apparently, liquidity was thin."

I saw that spike. What about NBBO? Does that only apply to NASDAQ trades?; January 27, 2011 at 2:28 PM
Anonymous said...: We did say Ts would rally after the auctions, right?

Bond market took one look at today's economic data, another at the TV news of Egypt, and there's your result.; January 27, 2011 at 2:28 PM
karen said...: here we go.. hang on to your hats.. i wouldn't be surprised about a gap down open tomorrow either..; January 27, 2011 at 2:29 PM
bob said...: Got a good deal on some 30y strips before the auction, thanks as always lb; January 27, 2011 at 2:29 PM
ben22 said...: a quick glimpse of the retail world:

1. I have had about three dozen clients call me this week to tell me they no longer wish to be in fixed income and prefer equity "due to the improving economy" Existing clients are also asking me to remove equity hedges.

2. So far I've had 4 existing clients call this month to inquire about starting to day trade their accounts

3. I have recieved two e-mails in the last two weeks from clients regarding stocks where both of them claimed that the stocks could "be the next Microsoft", both were green energy stocks but different companies.

4. Mom called me to tell me that she heard on the news things were getting better. Mom's a pretty good contrarian indicator over the years.

5. The questions about buying gold in virtually every meeting remains fairly consistent. Nobody is bringing up silver, it's always about gold. One guy that told me he wanted gold, I said "what about some silver as well", his response was "why would I want to own any silver" to which I replied,.... for the same reason you want to own the gold!!!

I tend to document periods like this in my trading diary. I've seen this off an on since 09 but this is a little bit more extreme and widespread than normal.; January 27, 2011 at 2:30 PM
bob said...: wti still trying to find a bottom.; January 27, 2011 at 2:30 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: GDP consensus 3.5%

It might even be higher. With no real growth but a 10% jump in $gaso you might be able to generate a BENNY BUCKS Q4 GDP of 4-5%.

Tomorrow might be a wonderful opportunity to buy Treasuries if the GDP is hot and there is a sell off in bonds.; January 27, 2011 at 2:32 PM
karen said...: wti bottom is a long way down, bob.. i don't expect it to get there today : ); January 27, 2011 at 2:32 PM
ben22 said...: oh, and a note on my #3

those were different people than the guy I mentioned a few weeks back telling me that C shoudl quadruple in price by the end of the next year.; January 27, 2011 at 2:32 PM
Anonymous said...: I've seen this off an on since 09 but this is a little bit more extreme and widespread than normal.

The MSM propaganda machine is in full swing here.
Stocks are up on THE ECONOMY.

China will drive anyway, we are just following.
SHIBOR spiking as Chinese banks are starved of capital.
Chinese lending is now tighter than Ks panties.; January 27, 2011 at 2:35 PM
I-Man said...: Just to be clear, I'm just riding the short to the bottom of the range on the 30 min chart.

Not calling for anything rowdy.

Bear traps are in season... regardless of the reason.; January 27, 2011 at 2:35 PM
I-Man said...: In other words, I'll be back to I and I dip buyin ways before the close, probably...; January 27, 2011 at 2:38 PM
karen said...: http://www.staradvertiser.com/news/breaking/Social_Security_fund_slides_into_permanent_deficit_.html; January 27, 2011 at 2:39 PM
karen said...: that would have been a good SOTU topic; January 27, 2011 at 2:40 PM
Anonymous said...: wti bottom is a long way down

Show us more bottoms, by all means.

We still think TLT is making a nice one. I like a scenario where we get an outlier econ data point (GDP, PPI etc) and TLT makes one sharp downward spike below 90, then bounces, consolidates and rallies like crazy after that.

The UK is ahead of us in this reflationary-deleveraging cycle, Swerve has already said the inflation spike is temporary and that's why they will not hike. I think this is very likely correct for UK and even more so for US where slack in the labor market is even greater.; January 27, 2011 at 2:42 PM
AmenRa said...: Ummmm EOM is here. Even I know to hold off on shorts when the big push is staring you in the face. I'd wait until after the first few days of the new month. BUT with the US Treasury ending the SFP program that idea might get tossed out also.; January 27, 2011 at 2:42 PM
karen said...: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/att-profit-contracts-after-charges-2011-01-27?siteid=rss&rss=1; January 27, 2011 at 2:44 PM
Anonymous said...: I would like to short but I don't want to get in front of the GDP bus. A big number tomorrow and they will buy everything, even China.

After tomorrow morning things should be a little clearer.; January 27, 2011 at 2:46 PM
I-Man said...: Well, I saw that smoke signal...

Bid em up.; January 27, 2011 at 2:47 PM
Jennifer said...: Futs can't even break VWAP. This bites.; January 27, 2011 at 2:47 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Finally warm enough to run...gonna get out of the mine and do that in a few.; January 27, 2011 at 2:48 PM
Anonymous said...: T back to yielding 6%. There are worse investments.; January 27, 2011 at 2:51 PM
Anonymous said...: http://scoop.todayshow.com/_news/2011/01/27/5935959-report-charlie-sheen-rushed-to-hospital

Report: Charlie Sheen rushed to hospital

Chlamydia abscess of the appendix...; January 27, 2011 at 2:55 PM
Anonymous said...: How does your appendix catch chlamydia?; January 27, 2011 at 2:58 PM
Anonymous said...: "How does your appendix catch chlamydia?"

A: Octo-mom?; January 27, 2011 at 3:01 PM
Jennifer said...: According to the site, two women exited the house at the same time Sheen left for the hospital.; January 27, 2011 at 3:02 PM
Jennifer said...: Ask them.; January 27, 2011 at 3:02 PM
Anonymous said...: I don't think it happens that quickly. How does it present?

The two women show up at his house, things get going and suddenly they see his infected appendix and run out of the house?

appendage maybe...; January 27, 2011 at 3:08 PM
Colin said...: Couldnt resist dipping my toe into NFLX on the short side. More of a monitoring position than a trade, but this is just ridiculous.; January 27, 2011 at 3:09 PM
Anonymous said...: Lots of pathogens can inhabit the appendix. Some people think it is actually designed to be a sort of holding area for bacteria so that you can repopulate the intestine after sickness. All speculation...; January 27, 2011 at 3:11 PM
Anonymous said...: Tried to nibble on T. Not quick enough.; January 27, 2011 at 3:12 PM
Anonymous said...: The same with K, really.; January 27, 2011 at 3:13 PM
Jennifer said...: Anon at 3:08 -- diet coke just came out my nose.; January 27, 2011 at 3:13 PM
Colin said...: LB, how are you buying Egypt? Is there an ETF out there that trades or something with exposure? (I dont have trading ability on the Cairo Stock Exchange unfortunately); January 27, 2011 at 3:14 PM
Colin said...: Nevermind, I found it: http://www.google.com/finance?q=egpt; January 27, 2011 at 3:15 PM
karen said...: Diet Coke!! for shame, Jennifer...; January 27, 2011 at 3:17 PM
Jennifer said...: We all have our vices...; January 27, 2011 at 3:21 PM
ben22 said...: I don't know what to make of NFLX, looks like maybe and H&S failed, peak of the left shoulder is 10/27/10

all around though....314% one year return, a p/e that must be a misprint, right, Cramer says it's a bull market like 82-84 or 94096, just broader

what's not to love?; January 27, 2011 at 3:22 PM
Jennifer said...: Could be worse...friend/neighbor only drinks MCD's diet coke...drives by me and my kids at the bus stop at 7:10 every morning as she races to MCD to get her morning diet coke.; January 27, 2011 at 3:22 PM
karen said...: i believe i was one week to the day early calling the dow overdone.. my how time flies when you are not having fun!; January 27, 2011 at 3:22 PM
karen said...: oh, i get it.. we still need an spx close above 1300 and indu above 12000.. dumb me.; January 27, 2011 at 3:29 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Tomorrow GDP at 8.30, then JOHNNY hour.
Consumer confidence 9.55, not so hot?

More interesting, on Monday:

Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET

Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET

Monday's data might be limp, flaccid, lacking firmness.
Quite excited about bond market entry points tomorrow.; January 27, 2011 at 3:30 PM
ben22 said...: I bought some Pepsi with the throwback cans and real sugar in them. I'd been sober but going through some w/drawal since 12/28 but it went down pretty smooth yesterday I have to admit

I'd be a pop junkie if I wasn't married, I admit it.; January 27, 2011 at 3:30 PM
Anonymous said...: we still need an spx close above 1300 and indu above 12000.

You know what that means....; January 27, 2011 at 3:30 PM
ben22 said...: Eminem has a thing for Diet Coke, as I'm to understand it

I feel bad for him, just got done reading the recent interview he did in RS, it was sad.; January 27, 2011 at 3:31 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: I think "anonymous" was being smurky with the appendix comment...the diet Coke coming out the nose...horrors!; January 27, 2011 at 3:42 PM
I-Man said...: JV Macro Theory

Where do you think all that money coming out of gold and oil is going?

Hint:

It will drive you crazy trying to call a top on US equities...; January 27, 2011 at 3:42 PM
karen said...: "An example from the monkey: the higher it climbs, the more you see of its behind” German proverb; January 27, 2011 at 3:44 PM
Anonymous said...: For those on the West Coast who would like to share the joys of shoveling and waiting for public transportation:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-12300801; January 27, 2011 at 3:47 PM
karen said...: no way, I !! nope, no way.. you will see.; January 27, 2011 at 3:49 PM
karen said...: the same folks that think spx is going to 1500, think crude will go to 150.. and gold to 2k; January 27, 2011 at 3:50 PM
Anonymous said...: LB, how are you buying Egypt?

We are not. You are a daring knife catcher. Good on you !

LOL. If GDP is hot, buy stoxx on "THE ECONOMY".
If GDP is weak, buy stoxx on "THE BEN BERNANK".; January 27, 2011 at 3:50 PM
karen said...: this is just a blow-off top if you ask me..; January 27, 2011 at 3:50 PM
Cold Steel said...: I live for afternoon ramping.; January 27, 2011 at 3:51 PM
I-Man said...: We'll settle this in the first week of March, Karen...

At the I-Top; January 27, 2011 at 3:52 PM
Anonymous said...: We love it when you say "blow" and "top".
I am not sure if this is really climactic.

No shorts to squeeze?; January 27, 2011 at 3:53 PM
I-Man said...: Gold and Oil are not the Dow and SPX...

Well, maybe a little SPX...; January 27, 2011 at 3:53 PM
Anonymous said...: Markets always reach a peak on good news.
A red hot GDP would be a lovely way to climax, Karen.

What would the catalyst be for the I-Top?
A massive NFP number? Can that ever happen?; January 27, 2011 at 3:55 PM
Anonymous said...: How about we get a Top in commodities, China and EMs first?
Then the spooz and dow roll over later, finally the nazz?; January 27, 2011 at 3:56 PM
Jennifer said...: wait, what just happened? Do I see red? Paging cold steel...; January 27, 2011 at 3:56 PM
karen said...: I-Man.. then you think the ONE TRADE is off? cuz it isn't.. we're just going thru a little trend change here.. and the commodities are leading.. despite, shockingly, enuf, the effing usd..; January 27, 2011 at 3:57 PM

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Morning Corner 1.27.11

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