Nikkei (weekly info)-no change (below mid)
trend=up
high= 10541.04
rev= 10211.95; mid= 10376.50
I'd say they were doing alright but that bearish engulfing is ominous. It won't take much to break below the weekly reversal price. If there is no support at the monthly mid it's going to drop hard and fast. But its been that way for a long time and previous highs will never be seen again.
RUXX (weekly info)new high 680.21
trend=up
high= 680.21
rev= 640.78; mid= 660.50
Russia is doing all it can to hold the lower trend line. Part of Russia's advance is due to oil prices being elevated. How long that lasts is anyone's guess.
Shanghai Composite (weekly info)new low 2715.29
trend=down
low= 2715.29
rev= 2842.43; mid= 2778.86
This week isn't starting off too well for China. Rumors of interbank liquidity drying up. Inflation much higher than reported (masters degree from the BLS). SHIBOR rates going exponential. Cities with no residents. Malls with no retailers. How are they going to lead the recovery?
90 Day Treasury (weekly info)-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 0.09
rev= 0.17; mid= 0.13
90 day has been moving higher since the last FOMC meeting. Is this a warning that the Fed may have to make a move on rates sooner than expected? ZIRP can't go on forever. Can it?
Some morning humor to keep your mind off the low volume ramp that's coming:
165 comments:
Home prices continue to drop
Home Prices in U.S. Declined 1.6% From Year Earlier
By Shobhana Chandra - Jan 25, 2011 8:06 AM CT
Residential real-estate prices dropped in November by the most in a year, signaling housing has yet to join the U.S. rebound.
The S&P/Case-Shiller index of home values in 20 cities fell 1.6 percent from November the prior year, the biggest 12-month decrease since December 2009, the group said today in New York. The decline matched the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
Mounting foreclosures will probably throw more properties on the market this year, further depressing prices, homeowners’ equity and construction. The lack of a sustained housing rebound and unemployment above 9 percent are among reasons the Federal Reserve may announce this week it’ll complete a second round of stimulus that will pump $600 billion into the economy by June.
“We’re having what I’d call a mini double-dip in home prices,” Michelle Meyer, senior U.S. economist with Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research in New York, said before the report. “Prices will remain pretty weak through the first half of the year. With excess supply on the market, it is still very much a buyers’ market.”
Crude Oil 86.72 -1.15 -1.31
Natural Gas 4.478 -0.120 -2.61
Corn 655.25 -2.00 -0.31
Soybeans 1404.50 -7.75 -0.55
30yr Bond 120.93750 +0.62500 +0.52
10yr Note 120.234375 +0.078125 +0.06
NY Gold 1327.7 -16.8 -1.26
NY Silver 26.860 -0.461 -1.71
Emini S&P 1283.25 -5.25 -0.41
Emini Nasdaq 2285.50 -12.50 -0.54
Emini Dow 11899 -31 -0.26
http://www.ino.com/
Just thought I'd get the morning started with this "news" I heard on morning radio:
Average bra size in America is now 36DD, up from 36C just 10 years ago.
Just sayin'...
http://www.nydailynews.com/lifestyle/fashion/2011/01/21/2011-01-21_bra_company_debuts_l_cup_womens_lingerie_sizes_getting_larger_average_us_size_is.html
JNJ missing by 12% and expecting lower growth probably didn't do the JBTFD crowd any favors.
Average bra size in America is now 36DD...
"Average" ?? NFW ~!
AAIP
YGBFKM....
That makes me wipe my forehead. JNJ was one of the equity positions I dumped last week.
I don't think I want to aspire to be better than average in this case.
a free Jeff Cooper for anyone interested.. I always am:
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/jeffery-cooper-stock-market-fomc-meeting/1/25/2011/id/32366
morning! busy getting organized this morning..
I suspect that the obesity problem may be "weighing" on this issue. *ba dum dump*
And, in keeping with this morning's theme, CNBC is discussing layoffs at Hooters.
Surgical enhancement perhaps? Greater societal acceptance of breastfeeding?
http://www.businessinsider.com/gold-open-interest-in-freefall-as-rumors-spread-of-hedge-fund-being-forced-to-liquidate-2011-1
i guess that was the dip.
If I actually had confidence in the generation of these confidence numbers, they would be interesting to me. Sigh.
LOL! U.S. consumer-confidence gauge jumps to 60.6 in January
01/25/2011 10:01:22 AM
(on the market, no doubt!)
this is following Neely's script perfectly..
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=d1
that Chart looks like it has ~1250, first stop, written all over it...
ibid.
It's the reaction of Stewie when he realizes that it's Peter and not Lois...
Matthew
That and children seem to be growing larger in each generation.
buy the dip, buy the rip-
just buy!
as an aside . . .even when subprime was being discussed and the housing market took a turn in 2006 . . .the markets kept going up-
even when the writing was on the wall . . .
That consumer confidence number created and filled its own gap on the 5 min SPX chart.
"Food, fuel prices unlikely to shake Fed from path"
see folks . . .it's only the core rate that matters-
food and energy going up? Here's a quarter- call someone who gives a shit . . .
Short gold and EMs here. Say what you will, it is working.
I will NOT short the US market while the wizard remains behind the curtain with a printing press, but the RUT/SPX divergence is something to keep an eye on. Short the weak, not the strong.
The early move in Ts faded quickly. We are not yet ready for everyone to run back into fixed income but most of the big exit is complete.
Matt, still bullish on high yield? I have been reducing, closing some trades I put on during the bond cliff dive in November and December.
food and energy going up? Here's a quarter- call someone who gives a shit . . .
They would have to call collect after filling the gas tank.
ben22
This one's for you: Perception becomes reality
Commentary: Psychology may be making Dow 12,000 a barrier
By MarketWatch
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — The stock market’s retreat early Tuesday no doubt comes as disappointing to investors who hoped the previous session’s triple-digit rise would generate enough momentum for the Dow industrials to push through the 12,000 level.
But the pullback may have been caused by nothing more noteworthy than the psychological significance that investors pay to round numbers.
more...
Unlike what they found to be in the case of the widely followed Dow, the researchers found no abnormal trading patterns in the market whenever the Wilshire 5000 approached a multiple of 100 or 1,000.
This finding reinforced the researchers’ belief that it is the psychological perception of price barriers that creates those barriers.
What this research means: Don’t get too discouraged just because the market is stalling at the 12,000 level.
ROR
Not bullish high yield anymore. I did a lot of derisking last week and, as mentioned, yesterday.
I have a lot of cash right now.
yon' Fixxy,
@10:17, strikes me as spot-on..
Cu, Ag, Pd looking weak, as well..
ibid.
PS: I am not shorting anything right now. I'm a little spooked, hence the cash. The only things that don't look scary are long bonds and high quality IGs
http://finviz.com/futures.ashx
the Soft Stuff is, still, running hard, tho..
We are on the same page then, I decided to keep a core position of about 10% in HY and 5% in TIP, almost back there now. The plan from here is to add to long bonds and IGs on weakness.
I do think US and UK commodity stocks and small caps will tumble, but the easiest hit might well be the EMs, China being obvious but there are others that are so leveraged that a small run could become a stampede.
Danny Blanchflower and El Gordo on CNBC this morning discussing how UK austerity was anticipated and resulted in this morning's negative GDP print. They expect more QE from The Swerve.
"Banker Bonuses Spur Discontent as Pay Gap Grows"
if people weren't getting the scraps from "Longshanks" table- food stamps, UE checks- they would have already set DC and Wall Street on fire-
as it is now- the Banker's couldn't care less- their lives aren't in danger . . .and they aren't going to spend any quality time in prison. . .
the common folk will show that they can keep taking it up the ass indefintely
"the scraps from "Longshanks" table"
FREEDOM !!!
Nice reference, ahab.
Jay Cutly-Wutly has his feelie-weelies hurt by tweetie-weeties.
Talk about Namby-Pamby Land !!!
"the Soft Stuff is, still, running hard, tho.."
I'm showing a lot of red in the softs this morning
RA,
re 90 day bills, way to keep an eye on that. Judging by how they've followed it in the past it needs to go quite a bit higher still before they react to it imo so I'm still in the camp that says rates aren't going anywhere any time soon. The fundamental analysis of high unemployment, 13 months inventory of housing plus a huge pipeline of Alt-A and Option Arm resets coupled with the Fed's lowest measured CPI in decades and it's hard for me to think they will raise. Food riots globally, as if the Fed cares. And anon, I'm still waiting for your response from yesterday in defense of the Fed where you reveal to us all the wonderful things they have done over the years, I'll be here daily checking for it. Otherwise, STFU.
re: Consumer confidence
worthless survey, I know we've been down this road, but it is worth repeating, the highest ever measure on CC was just before a roughly 40% equity decline, one of the lowest levels reached was early 2009, just before one of the largest and fastest rallies in US market history it's of no use in forecasting markets from what I've seen.
iow, monkey business
re: 36DD being average
no way is that true right?, or if it is, this is another case of averages being dangerous
re: gold
I don't know what to make of it, lots of us have wondered if hedgies would unwind in a big way at some point all their paper gold, I can see a top forming in gold, I could also interpret as consolidation before another blast higher.
Fact is, it doesn't seem like we've had the blow off speculative phase in the gold bull market yet. The top timer in gold is bearish right now but only looking for a correction, all the other top timers are bullish gold still.
good luck today
If we do go down hard today or tomorrow morning, my advice (and my actions) would be to close all shorts, including my gold short, ahead of the FOMC announcement.
The wizard is not going to turn around on QE2.
"...15. Sell Junk Securities. During the dark days of the financial crisis, the yields on junk bonds leaped to 19.3 percentage points over Treasurys as investors worried about complete financial collapse and widespread defaults among low-grade issues. Triple-C rated bonds, the lowest junk tier, sold at 42.6 cents on the dollar at the beginning of 2009, and yielded 44.3 percentage points over Treasurys in December 2008.
But the bailout of the big banks and easing of the financial crisis allayed investor fears, and junk spreads collapsed to levels lower than in many pre–financial crisis years. Institutional investors piled in, followed by individual investors, many of whom sought alternatives to low returns on bank deposits and money market funds and who also bought investment-grade corporate and municipal bonds.
So the spreads on junk bonds collapsed and in 2009, junk bonds returned 57% and low-quality leveraged loans returned 52%, much more than the 24% gain on the S&P 500 Index, despite the fact that 11% of junk issuers defaulted that year. Some 265 companies defaulted on bonds, double the 2008 tally and more than the previous high of 229 in 2001. In 2010, contrary to our expectation, junk bonds rose another 13% in price as the default rate dropped to 1.1%.
In any event, we believe this rally was way overdone. In addition, the slow economic- growth, deflationary scenario we project this year and beyond will be lethal for many junk bonds, both those issued as high-yield instruments by companies with shaky balance sheets and fallen angels that have been downgraded to junk status. Slow revenue and cash flow growth, to say nothing of deflation, will make it difficult if not impossible for a number of financially weak and weakening firms to service their bonds and other debts as the principals of those instruments rise in real terms..."
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/2011-investment-strategies-9-buys-9-sells/
ibid.
re: 36DD being average
You have to think about the entire population. There are some big aircraft carriers out there sporting some very large guns up top.
Ask B in T and he will tell you that breast reduction surgery is a very popular choice out there.
Mark
Agreed on junk, sell strength.
Matthew,
"the Soft Stuff" = King Cotton
"the Softs", on the other hand..
AAIP
Ra,
re: 12k
yeah, people love the round numbers, I can't really recall though any major trend change that ever happened right at one of them can you?
yeah I guess when you consider obesity, 36DD is big though, in order for it to be average I'd assume lots of women are way bigger, it's not as if there aren't all kinds of A and B cups walking around
Barry is probably a B cup, for example.
oops :D
Mark,
Just read the whole Gary Shilling piece, very nice.
Likes: Long bonds, IG and dividends.
Hates: Commodities, junk bonds, EM stocks and currencies.
Can't argue with any of that really, except low yields and slow growth will keep junk afloat for a while we think.
Barry is probably 4 B cups (front and back)
The Recoveryless Recovery™ continues:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-25/home-prices-fell-4-3-in-november-on-mounting-foreclosures-u-s-reports.html
™ HT: Karen.
Hey! I resemble that remark!
ben22
It's the MSM that makes a big deal about the round numbers. To me they're only valuable if they line up with TA levels.
But it's true value is seeing how MSM gushes/oohs/aahs as the number is crossed. {/sarcasm}
State Department might be calling the BEN BERNANK:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110125/wl_africa_afp/egyptpoliticsdemotunisia;_ylt=AoRnVDx65OmoqUjQeC4MgPJH2ocA;_ylu=X3oDMTQwczY1M2gyBGFzc2V0Ay9zL2FmcC8yMDExMDEyNS93bF9hZnJpY2FfYWZwL2VneXB0cG9saXRpY3NkZW1vdHVuaXNpYQRjY29kZQNtcF9lY184XzEwBGNwb3MDMTAEcG9zAzEwBHNlYwN5bl90b3Bfc3RvcmllcwRzbGsDZWd5cHRpYW5zdGFr
Losing Mubarak in Egypt would be a blow to US diplomatic ambitions to achieve a stable Middle East around Israel.
The policies of the BEN BERNANK have caused bread riots which now threaten to destabilize regimes all over the world !!!
seeing how MSM gushes/oohs/aahs
Are you suggesting that I gush?
Fixxy,
yes, thought Shilling's whole piece was decent..
esp. 18. Sell Many Old Tech Capital Equipment Producers. ...
the CAT/Bucyrus 'tie-up' may have been the "bell-ringer" for the whole Sector/Thesis..
http://search.yippy.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&v%3Aproject=clusty&query=Bucyrus+CAT
speaking of tweets- my son was showing me the tweets from NFL players re Cutler after he came up injured in the 2nd half-
wasn't pretty- seems to me you would want to be in the game no matter what- however- even though I was angry initially- I'll accept this as the definitive answer as to why he couldn't return to the field -
Veteran center Olin Kreutz said he was surprised Cutler stayed in the game as long as he did with the injured knee . . . It was shaking right after he took the hit and walked back into the huddle," Kreutz said. "It was swinging. I knew that one of his ligaments probably went."
An aside re: the State Dept -- anybody tried to get a passport for a minor recently? Just shoot me now. Both parents need to apply in person, along with the minor. If both parents can not appear in person, the parent who is not present must provide a notarized affidavit of consent. Good grief! Oh, and the fees aren't cheap either. Conspiracy theorists could easily conclude that they are making it hard to leave the country intentionally.
ZH reporting that twitter and phone lines down in Egypt.
OK, "stuff" to do. Will be back at the close, unless K shows up and tosses out a whole lot of double entendres....
notarized affidavit of consent
my guess- they're just trying to make sure the other parent is aware- to avoid kidnappings by one of the parents to a foreign country-
it must be a new rule because I never that issue with my kid's passports
We are not getting the real spin on these issues North Africa. All our news is being varnished as to the real reason behind the unrest.
MSM is playing this as "crowds ejecting nasty Arab dictators in order to embrace US-style freedom, I-Phones and McDonalds". Very much like the Berlin Wall and Eastern European velvet revolution was played here.
The realities on the ground are much different and US is worried.
Ahab,
I bet he wanted to play very badly, but he likely made the best decision for the team, I think he would have been a liability out there, if guys on the o-line could see it wobbling then it was pretty bad.
Ahab -- you are right about the reason, but isn't there a better way? What a PITA. Something just happen? I look away for 5 min and thud, we're dropping like a rock.
Jennifer.. no, it has to do with custody issues.. and is quite understandable in that light.. the renewal is much easier : ) Been thru it all!
ahab.. i think you don't remember getting your kids passports.. or maybe you ex-wife did it, LOL!
i was reading about this earlier.. now a better link, i think:
JP Morgan Sold Investors MBS Covered By "SACK OF SHIT" Loans... Then Shorted All Those With Exposure: A Goldman-AIG Redux http://j.mp/hwXCtL
"I bet he wanted to play very badly"
no doubt he did- and I feel bad because my son and I were riding his ass after he didn't return to the field-
it was a huge disappointment- because I thought Chicago would still rally and win as the Chicago D was at the top of their game in the 2nd half-
tough to do without your starter- but I now see that Cutler would have been a liability and would have put himself in a position to be injured further had he stayed in the game
SEC approves investor say on CEO pay. Reason for the sudden drop?
yeah, I felt terrible for the guy, I've been in that position before for a huge game and I got hurt during the game, I wouldn't wish it on anyone. You want to play and your body isn't having it.
maybe some sort of triangle forming here but lets see, in order for GN's count to work we need to quickly erase all of 2010's gains and based on the pattern he's using when I say it should be fast I mean it.
we'll see how it plays out, might just be another one of the shapes that shall not be named forming here.
Slightly less sanitized coverage of the riots in Cairo:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12272836
ABC News will find some protesters who love America, freedom, Ronald Raygun, apple pie and hamburger. But they will miss the real story.
High unemployment, high food prices, corruption. There is also an element of generational warfare. Young people are fed up.
Payrolls Decrease in 35 U.S. States, Led by New York
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-25/payrolls-decrease-in-35-u-s-states-led-by-new-york-minnesota-florida.html
"High unemployment, high food prices, corruption. There is also an element of generational warfare. Young people are fed up."
sounds like the US to me.....just wait for it
ben, all of 2010 gains!! or did you mean 2011 gains..
SPX keeps trying to close the gap on the 30 min chart from Fridays open.
who cares about payrolls if the Wizard can "make" stocks go up
that's what he said, not me
something about a virtious circle, 11/4/10 Wash Post
no karen, all of 2010's gains, that wasnt' a typo
he's drawn a line to the lows of last year and fast.....
"ahab.. i think you don't remember getting your kids passports.. or maybe you ex-wife did it"
no it was all me- I did it at the post office . . .nothing from the ex-wifey-
I even had to drive to Richmond to get a replacement Birth Certificate for my daughter (since my ex-wifey couldn't locate it)
I mean, I've not seen a call from anyone else like that so who knows doesn't seem like it could happen right now but I just keep in mind the market always seems to make the seemingly impossible, possible.
ben, i think this is what you wanted:
http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/1/25/market-performance-around-the-state-of-the-union-speech.html
The most recent 5yr auction was 71% of todays POMO: http://tinyurl.com/4lrzk8e
h/t zerohedge
Sacrilege I tell ya!
not enough years there Karen to make any call on it, thanks though, figures Bespoke would have it.
from a top-step link:
"Excerpt: US Market Timing, by Investor’s Intelligence for 1/24/11
“… Also noteworthy was the individual stock trading with a huge 569 buying climaxes. The
markets show a five-month winning streak with spectacular gains and the large number of
climaxes is certainly an indication that smart money is moving to the sidelines in a fairly big way
… Buying climaxes take place when a stock makes a 12-month high, but closes the week with a
loss. They are a sign of distribution and indicate that stocks are moving from strong hands to weak
ones. Selling climaxes occur when a stock makes a new 12-month low, but then closes the week
with a gain. They are a sign of accumulation and indicate that stocks are passing from weak hands
to strong ones. Our work shows that sellers into buying climaxes and buyers into selling climaxes
are right about 80% of the time after 4-6 months time.”
Speaking of selling climaxes...
It would be fun to go really really deep today.
Don't you think so, Karen?
is there a way to link charts here with your post so people can just see the image in the post rather than having to click a link, anyone tried that?
The collection device worked well last week Lloyd.
Shall I turn up the power?
Remain at the controls, Giles.
We will apply suction at the most expeditious moment.
JOHN E suspects nothing....
I've told you chaps before, NO MOWW FWASH CWASH...!
EEM lagging IWM which lags SPY.
Identify the weak member of the herd.
Kill. Eat.
http://www.businessinsider.com/idiot-makers-rally-continues-2011-1
Interesting short term thoughts on T bills.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-25/treasury-may-shrink-fed-borrowing-by-98-as-debt-limit-bumps-into-ceiling.html
In time they will have to issue a LOT more T bills to deal with the interest payments. Unless they cut spending of course. ROR.
Neely is number 6 in the above slide show, btw.
gotta roll- all be good . . .
Crude Oil 86.65 -1.22 -1.39
Natural Gas 4.462 -0.136 -2.96
Corn 643.50 -11.75 -1.79
Soybeans 1383.0 -21.5 -1.53
30yr Bond 120.68750 +0.37500 +0.31
10yr Note 120.265625 +0.031250 +0.03
NY Gold 1325.2 -19.3 -1.45
NY Silver 26.685 -0.636 -2.36
Emini S&P 1279.75 -8.75 -0.68
Emini Nasdaq 2287.75 -10.25 -0.45
Emini Dow 11871 -59 -0.49
http://www.ino.com/
gotsta hop..
I'll see if I can catch up, later..
AAIP
as an aside, yes, I do think Cutler has been unfairly put upon / think it's funny/sad that the 'greatest detractors' weren't, even, in the Game..
no way the market can drop with articles like that out there.. LOL
NYSE
73 new highs
16 new lows
Another classic post from the business insider, wouldn't expect much less from that site.
Glancing through the slides, very few of them apply anymore and lots of the calls are two years old almost:
Neely abandoned that call in 2009, over a year ago....from what I can tell he changes his forecasts constantly.
the guys at PIMCO are allowing their flagship bond fund to BUY STOCKS and they are a bond shop....
Bob Junjah, bullish now in general, just did a long interview at bloomberg
Joe Stiglitz is an economist last time I checked, Dylan Ratigan, a tv personality.
Jeremy Grantham has called for what, 1500+?
I read RR every day, he just likes gold better than anything else, not to mention, he does dow theory, which clearly shows we are still in an intermediate trend bull market, RR never denied this,
Doug Kass makes a million calls, some good, some bad.
That Prechter made the list twice, that's funny.
Good read on silver, Blame it on the ETF again, last line..
But then again, could it be that it is ETP redemptions — encouraged by falling prices — that are contributing to high demand for physical spot silver delivery to ETP authorised participants?
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/01/25/469001/the-silver-markets-conflicting-signals/
Just got in...and I want to say lefty, with the 36DD news today, you have behaved admirably.
..You feeling all right??
Ben.. don't be too hard on the article.. the dates of the calls prominent.. and the authors stated flat out that they don't consider people quoted "idiots"..
Grantham called for 1500 on the fed's folly; but also said spx fair value is 950, i think..
Fact is all those calls were made and were wrong and had to be recalled..
or re thot.. or re jigged..
recanted?
with GLD bouncing off 129 support.. is it over? i think the one trade is still on.. so gold, crude, copper, spx, etc.. will resume one way or the other in tandem.. but if they do move back up.. my bet is yields move up as well..
Thanks, Jennifer !! I prefer you at my back to the Fed, that is for sure!
Anytime, Karen :-)
We have lots of practice here...regular preschool homework involves generating huge lists of words featuring the "letter of the week."
karen,
that's what I'm wondering, what's the point of the article exactly, to say people are wrong about calls
well no shit, everyonoe is at one point or another
I did see the disclaimer, "we dont' think they are idiots" then they throw that last slide in at the end
the whole thing is sort of strange if you ask me.
I always assume the the point of articles like that is to justify the "stay fully invested/weather the storm" crap that most people are told.
"Andy T said...
They're going to try and carve out support 1317-1330 zone. If I were a day trader type, the risk/reward actually favors buying that stupid thing in that zone and running a stop on action below 1317.
January 24, 2011 11:47 PM"
Looking a little spry now....
AT,
you talking futures or cash?
Krugman has his head up his ass again:
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/01/25/are-low-rates-a-subsidy-to-banks/
What a complete idiot. You all know how I have predicted this trade done by the banks by buying the long end, riding it, and made a big profit out of it. Anyone with a knowledge of Japan could have done the same thing.
Krugman's problem is he has never participated in a market.
He did the same thing with crude in 2008.
Put a silly graph up showing inelastic demand, and said it was going to $200. Soon after it nearly went to $20.
The Nobel should be recalled. He lacks common sense and basic knowledge of macroeconomics and capital markets.
tlt/zb caught a bid
looks like TLT just kicked it up a notch.. this is the direction we want to see!
One of Krugman's commenters seems to be channeling LB:
"Every Billion borrowed would yield 30 million in pure no risk profit. In 18 months that would yield 45 million for doing nothing. When you have nothing else going on that's a good way to raise cash and pay Bonuses!"
don't put your money on gold till TLT direction is clear.. those two are NOT going to trade together..
looking at uso.. 36 is a given.. but what about 34.50?
The 2y auction was fair.
Bid/Cover 3.47
Coupon Rate 0.625%
Total Amount $35 B
Yield Awarded 0.650%
That was a great comment, I have been trying to leave something similar there and at Mark Thoma's blog, but without success. This is the dirty little secret that the MSM don't want us to know. But we do. If we turn Japanese they will be turning this trick repeatedly for a decade.
I, for one, am not completely unhappy that my toddler is sick, and therefore perfectly content to watch way too much tv today while I'm glued to the tape.
Ben--
Sorry. I'm usually talking Gold futures....
So, Feb Gold futures...
GS dropping.. under $160 would be nice.
holy shit man, for a minute I thought you were talking S&P cash and I thought
dude had some frou frou's on the way to work today!
and then I thought
man I suck at TA because I don't see that AT ALL
ROR
it's all coming together for me now
alright, on my way to jersey, hope to see snookie on the turnpike, I'll check back in tonight.
Leftback sighting....
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2011/01/are-low-rates-a-subsidy-to-banks.html#tp
“We’re having what I’d call a mini double-dip in home prices,” Michelle Meyer, senior U.S. economist with Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research in New York, said before the report. “Prices will remain pretty weak through the first half of the year. With excess supply on the market, it is still very much a buyers’ market.”
Let it FALL. Let the MARKET CLEAR. FREEDOM !!!!
Just cheking in (and find I'm missing a "fun" day at "T&A"... AMEN-ANDY - this blog needs to be changed from "Traders-Anonymous" to "Traders&Anonymous" to reflect the true T&A spirit!
---THIS(ESE)---
"if people weren't getting the scraps from "Longshanks" table- food stamps, UE checks- they would have already set DC and Wall Street on fire"
ROR Longshanks
---
TWSWB (with 36DD "manboobs")
ROTFLMAO!
---
Cutler
STFU if you don't own an MRI machine
---
@karen
GS $160 - was thinking the same thing (was the first thought in my head as I scanned the "green-red" board for 2 seconds)
ZH hit this on the nose:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/qe2-success-56-wall-street-gets-biggest-bonus-last-year
I didn't fancy it.
Those guys were big. They hurt me.
Mommy said I could come out of the game.
I'll be back later to decipher which OSCAR "NOMINATION" picks I got right & wrong...
It's more difficult to get the "nominees" right than the actual winners... I was happy to see Michelle Williams get in there with a nomination...
I'd omitted "Blue Valentine" in a lot of my predictions because I didn't think the Academy would go for it...
Interesting that they did, and that "re-shapes" some of my eventual picks...
ZH should be subtitled (or maybe this blog should)
THE DAILY DIARY OF THE AMERICAN SCREAM™
http://www.minyanville.com/dailyfeed/survey-of-online-dating-profiles/
Anyone watching REITs buck the market bigtime today. Looks like LB is moving the market again into the divvies.
Leftback, wrt Krugman, is he an idiot because he doesn't realize that the banks will be able to sell the long term bonds into the Fed's quantitative easing?
If really that's it, can it be true that Nobel laureate doesn't realize this? I don't even have a PhD...
OK, I just read the Krugman piece and I am just shaking my head.
First, his argument is based on one of four major economic theories about forward interest rates (pure expectations; he fails to mention the others).
Second, he has absolutely no clue what motivates different institutional investors: "investors choose whether to park their funds short-term or buy long bonds based on which they think will yield more over the next 10 years." Whatever you say, laureate. You'll never get a job as an investor if you believe that.
Finally, he assumes that when short term rates rise, the banks will incur substantial capital losses on their long duration bonds, which is not a given. He uses this as reasoning that there is no subsidy to banks. I suspect that if I talked about a roll and carry strategy in front of him, he would have to pretend to know what I'm talking about.
As with his inability to grasp the HF/prop desk role in the 2008 oil price spike, it is just mind-boggling that Krugman doesn't get what really has to be one of the simpler trades of the century to understand and execute.
Nobel Laureate = "Most Likely to Succeed" award from High School...
You could go on to great things...
OR
You could strat a METH lab and accidentally set yourself on fire & blow up the neighborhood because you didn't follow the CARDINAL RULE of not getting high on your own stash...
AAPL starting to move now... who needs food, we can just order dinner in, there is NO WAY I'm going to the grocery store now.
I just cooked a 6Lb turkey and it is delicious. My mouth is watering at the thought (even though I just ate).
This is what I call a poker week--a predicted boring trading week, so I scalp some Europeans in online poker :D
This is setting up for a muy rapido move down...
You are a true polymath, Matt.
You should see what I get up to on boring trading days. Complex algebra, molecular cloning, watching Liverpool FC. One can only imagine the kinds of activity that occur on Karen's dull days....
Shall we turn up the power to the suction device, Lloyd?
They are sleeping. They suspect nothing.
A big dump into the close would fill the receptacle with...
LIQUIDITY. Our life blood.
Surprising that mortgages haven't followed TLT today.
Spreads are wider.
MUB is up, IQI is down, flight to quality still on in muni land.
AFIA2BNL
I had noticed that about MUB & IQI.
Wonder what the BEN BERNANK will say tomorrow?
Tomorrow I will announce that dollar bills will continue to fly out of my bottom for ever and ever or until deflation is conquered, whichever comes first.
Good. All right, thanks Ben. That's settled, then.
here we are..
Jeremy Grantham Q4 Letter: Pavlov's Dogs http://is.gd/le7sol
If anybody really gives a FF...
new chart in thread
Still got "dumbo ears" 2nite... That's why I kinda EXPECTED this little KISS UP to the triangle point at the EOD...
Not that I'm really watching...
Got some fresh salmon (that I'm "smoking" - I-MAN when TF are you going to catch me one and send it 2 me)...
CV has salmon sushi (& "philly rolls") on the menu for this evening...
Then - I suppose I'll watch DUMBO EARS - just for the sheer f*** of it... I'll probably need som SAKE to get thru it (but my homebrew isn't ready)... Damn! :-)
KEY to sushi is the "rice" - BTW...
Tough to get that right...
Whoops, check out the IBM fat finger...
We will not be watching President Obanana. If he mentions new JOBS CZAR Jiff Emmelt one more time we are gonna puke...
I will be watching. Our President is inspirational.
Hey GOLDFINGER, you're not looking too good today.
Is there room for me on your blog?
Always room 4u Pussy... :-)... (It's my "Honor")
I'm looking for a way to smelt cold steel...
just realized $indu made a new high today.. by 3.03.. makes today's red hammer a little more ominous... even if it goes clear by the close.. all in all a very odd day..
think i will be gone the minute the market closes.. sushi for me tonight, too, CV.. will be seeing my nail girl this evening to pretty up my feet.. wonder if she'll have any comments from her sister on gold.. will check in tonight! sayonara !!
@Amen (3:53)
HAI!...
This is what I do with smelted cold steel...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wmJTYfhBiP4
@karen
Ask your "nail girl" for a bottle of 100% pure ACETONE while you're at it...
Put a bit in your Porsche to improve your gas mileage...
CV has ALL the answers! :-)
Gas mileage?
I drive a Ferrari. It is powered by the tears of the bourgeoisie. I have never had such an abundant supply of fuel.
Jennifer said...
I always assume the the point of articles like that is to justify the "stay fully invested/weather the storm" crap that most people are told.
January 25, 2011 12:55 PM
that's got to be worth 8 points (6 and the 2 pt. conversion)
AAIP
Crude Oil 86.28 -1.59 -1.81
Natural Gas 4.485 -0.113 -2.46
Corn 644.00 -11.25 -1.72
Soybeans 1374.5 -30.0 -2.14
30yr Bond 121.43750 +1.12500 +0.93
10yr Note 120.921875 +0.687500 +0.57
NY Gold 1333.0 -11.5 -0.86
NY Silver 26.825 -0.496 -1.84
Emini S&P 1287.00 -1.50 -0.12
Emini Nasdaq 2300.50 +2.50 +0.11
Emini Dow 11922 -8 -0.07
http://www.ino.com/
@Lloyd
I'da thot a guy like you would have a DRIVER...
I guess ur not as potent as I thot...
Being the driver is more fun when you drive on the sidewalk at 250Km/h to see how many people you can hit
@Lord Blankfiend:
I drive a BMW when I go bourgeois bumping. It is much more sturdy
They suffer more when I force them to eat catfood.
Lloyd,
It's time for your medication.
EEM lagged the US markets again today.
We tightened our stops on EM and gold shorts, just in case there is an orgy of DGDF tomorrow morning on anticipation of QE4....
QE3 is already priced in.
QE3^10... I think... too
I've got enough food... tho... to last me a couple of decades...
FRN's don't taste very good... If they wound them a little less tight... I might be able to use them as a decent cheesecloth...
Gotta get THE BERNANK working on that...
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