AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: Still hungover from the weekend festivities. Did I forget to cause havoc in the US markets today?

Bullish thrusting day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Closed above SMA(21). No test of 0.0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1299.53). QE2infinity. Still below daily 3LB mid.

Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). May be heading for the 14.6% retrace (77.54) again. Below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 77.73).

Bearish harami star day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above SMA(21), SMA(55) and SMA(89). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 17.75). Still out of the "no fear" zone. Failed to have a monthly 3LB reversal.

Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). 0.0% retrace holding. Tested and passed the 38.2% retrace (1328.33). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1347.90). Must have the precious.

Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above its 50.0% retrace at 1.3506. Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3722).

Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Running towards its 50.0% retrace (40.47) again. Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 39.63).

Spinning top day. Failed the 14.6% retrace at 33.86. Back above SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 32.36).

Bullish thrusting day. Still below SMA(21) & SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 5129.33).

Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of SMA(55). Still hasn't overtaken its 38.2% retrace (12.01). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 12.30). Still above weekly 3LB mid (11.76).

Bullish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. Back above its 23.6% retrace (17.02) of the recent down move. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 18.73).


The Bond Report 1.31.11

A classic Monday following a TEOTWAWKI Friday. Risk was on, and a front end POMO meant another big steepener. 2s30s reached 403 bps at one point and settled at 401 bps.

Corpies: LQD -0.28%; AGG -0.19%; JNK 0.65%; HYG 0.54%
Govies: TLT -0.76%; IEI -0.16%; TIP 0.03%
Munis: IQI -0.30%; MUB -0.53%
Mortgages: MBB 0.00%
Hedgies: TBT 1.35%

We dumped another 2% JNK. We are playing defence.
Our trade du jour was selling EGPT at a 8% profit.


A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

Nice work, Ra.

Our eyes are on SLV, and a breakdown below support.
Also watching Bucky - the EURUSD and JPYUSD crosses.

TNX chart above has to be the definition of congestion !
As you have pointed out AUDJPY is similar.

Anonymous said...

Let's all wish a safe night and a productive day tomorrow for the peaceful protestors in Egypt.


Lord Blankfiend said...

Look, Giles. The Bears have all left, or are asleep.
Later this week might be an excellent time to harvest liquidity.

Prepare the suction device when you come in tomorrow.

Giles Straightarrow said...

Yes, Lloyd. They are all hypnotized by the BEN BERNANK.
After listening to Taleb they are convinced they must shun USTs.

After we activate suction they will all want to buy Treasuries.
Then we will be able to unload our stash to panicked inwestors.

ben22 said...


thanks for all the charts man.


"2 day, ten min cup and handle on all indices.. they've all been trading together, getting ready for tomorrow's 12k and 1300 run no doubt."

check out the April top, would look very similar now if what you describe plays out. We'll see.

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

Ignoring the ZH hyperbola, just look at the graph. The 2s30s spread is also susceptible to the principle of mean reversion.

This kind of extreme is usually a set-up for equities to sell off in the not too distant future.

AmenRa said...

Monthly 3LB info:

SPX - monthly confirmation - trend=no (2 bars)
DOW JONES - new high - trend=up
NASDAQ - new high - trend=up
SUGAR - new high - trend=up
XLF - monthly reversal up - trend=no (1 bar)
CRB - new high - trend=up
CAT - new high - trend=up
HANG SENG - new high - trend=up
KOSPI - new high - trend=up
ATHENS - monthly reversal up - trend=no (1 bar)
JPM - monthly reversal up - trend=no 91 bar)
UUP - new low - trend=down
AAPL - new high - trend=up
IQI - new low - trend=no (2 bars)

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

2s30s hit 403 bps today, a record spread. This extremely steep YC seems unsustainable. Something has to give, and the risk:reward ratio is much more favorable at the long end than the short end.

If the economic data weaken, the whole curve will flatten and move down, whereas if the economic data show real strength, the short end will be annihilated.

CV said...

Re: HC Bill being slapped as "unconstitutional"...

Well, I suppose after they "signed it to see what was in it" (Pelosi)... What they saw was unconstitutional...


Look - I don't really care... I just get tired of all the BS & claptrap...

Liberal HEROES!... Out to SAVE THE PLANET (by telling you how you should run your life)...

Jennifer said...


CV said...


I'd say... CHANGE NFLX to "NFL-X"...

You know... A porn channel dedicated to the after hour exploits of NFL stars... Jenn Sturger could be the spokesgirl...

Might save the whole existence...

CV... once again... thinking OUT OF THE BOX...

"Racist" (now "sexist" that I am)... Any "aliens" logging in here?... I could become an "ALIENATOR"...

Willing to perform a lot of services... all for FREE of course...

Anonymous said...


you crack me up

Andy T said...

Looks like I should be able to have the privilege of selling 1290 tomorrow...

"Hooray," I think.

Andy T said...

In re: Health Care.

Yeah, it's the first time in US History that the government FORCED its citizens to buy something.*

Wonder why that's Unconstitutional?

*Yeah, yeah, they force you have Auto Insurance and blah, blah, blah, blah. But, YOU don't have to drive if you don't want to....

AmenRa said...

Futures still finding a way to stay green. Damn first day of the month.

Post a Comment


This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.