Morning Audibles 8.19.10

Have I told any of you how much I hate OPEX weeks? It shouldn't necessarily be that way, but in a market which is, um, not exactly fair to the average hack, it's a little hard rowing around in a tiny little boat when at any given moment one of the "TOO BIG TO JAIL" types might find themselves needing to defend a poor trade that they made implicitly with your tax dollars...


Speaking of taxes... I guess we're going to do C'MON MAN all week... This little gem from those wild & crazy "Bloomies"... (followed by my lunatic comments)...



Carbon Profit Grows on Trees as Kiwi Farmers Ditch Sheep

Excerpt:

"Belching Cows, Sheep


The nation’s carbon-trading project was expanded in July to require energy producers to pay for their emissions. By 2015, the system will include agriculture, forcing farmers to pay for emissions their cows and sheep make through belching."

I guess we all know what else cows & sheep do besides belch...

And, of course, this all begs the question... Let me re-state that last sentence... "By 2015, the system will include agriculture, forcing farmers to pay for emissions their cows and sheep make through belching."

Is this where we're going people? Let me try to examine how this is going to work in practice...

Let's "cut one" to the chase...We'll just call him/her the FARTING CZAR

Appointed by this guy, who is BUBBLING DEEPLY on the economics of it all...

Thou who smelt it, dealt it...

It'll apply to all "57" states... Oh no! beans! Don't eat them! Don't do it!

DOH! I warned you... That'll be a $10 fine son...

Wanna know what I think about your plan? Follow the instructions & find out...

"I think this is a BAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHD idea"

So do my brothers... Let's come up with a new idea, then you can decide...








321 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   201 – 321 of 321   Newer›   Newest»
arbitrage789 said...

A certain someone is very post-happy today, I see.

karen said...

oh, dear.. am i sick of seeing my face! rolling my eyes..

themosmitsos, Look, S&P500 chart is just plain *BROKEN* now. It's only a matter of time now. #SPX #SPOO #SPU $ES_F
1 minute ago via web
Reply Retweet

zerohedge, JPM revises Q3 GDP Forecast to 2% from 3%
2 minutes ago via TweetDeck

Leftback said...

Karen,

Are we going to see the bottom again today?
I thought perhaps we might...

arbitrage789 said...

The bottom, the top, the middle.... it's all good.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Yes DL

karen said...

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/08/moodys-commercial-real-estate-price.html

Moody's reported (via Bloomberg) today that the Moody’s/REAL All Property Type Aggregate Index declined 4% in June. This is a repeat sales measure of commercial real estate prices.

Commercial real estate values are now down 41.3% from the peak in late 2007.

karen said...

zerohedge, Correction: JPM revises Q3 to 1.5%, Q4 to 2%

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/broke-states-should-save-themselves-by-selling-off-roads-colleges-and-other-assets-says-altucher-535345.html?tickers=stra,apol,%5Egspsc,%5Edji,spy&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=

Broke States Should Save Themselves By Selling Off Roads, Colleges, And Other Assets, Says Altucher

...Isn't this the Einstein that said don't worry about the recovery...that things were going to work out just fine?

Now we want to sell of state assets? Isn't this what they call a one-time pop? What happens if they keep reading out of the same governing book after they sell these assets?

...Besides, Leftback already owns two toll roads near New York City..

arbitrage789 said...

B in T @ 2:32


Or they could declare bankruptcy, like Vallejo, CA.

http://www.vallejobankruptcyupdate.com/

karen said...

Bruce, fyi, from your link.. you can delete everything from and including the ? on..

ben, as for volume.. i'm not saying it isn't there.. but this is NOT a big volume sell off..

Jennifer said...

So...oldest daughter had her first orthodontic consult today...took all morning (bad teeth!) What did I miss? More importantly, how am I going to make some money to pay for this orthodonture?

karen said...

Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo subpoenaed American International Group Inc. as part of a fraud investigation focusing on life insurers’ retention of death benefits, said two people briefed on the demands.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aLhLkB6mdNe8

McFearless said...

James Altucher is a maroon.

karen said...

i'm seeing a rev h&s on dzz 10 min 2 day chart : )
cup and handle on 10 min 2 day tbt !!

McFearless said...

Karen,

ok, thought maybe I was getting bad data.

karen said...

ben... no no no.. JA is a JA, and i'm not JK

karen said...

Jennifer? how do you feel about bottoms, or tops? I can't stand to look at my face another second! LOL.. i'm getting punch drunk..

we gotta get out of this place

James Altucher said...

Karen,

I am hot; I know you want me... (adjusts glasses on nose...)

Jennifer said...

Karen -- love 'em! For trading only...

Bernie Madoff said...

I was recently traded for a pack of cigarettes.

Leftback said...

Karen,

Not really an expert in this area, but were those boy shorts?
On a separate note, how do you feel about a ramping into the close?

arbitrage789 said...

ramping... or grinding?

karen said...

Here's one for us: How Pimco Is Holding American Homeowners Hostage

"Some raids on the US Treasury by America’s crony capitalists are so egregious as to provoke a rant -- even if you aren’t Rick Santelli. One such rant-worthy provocation is Pimco latest scheme to loot Uncle Sam’s depleted exchequer."

http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/crony-capitalism-housing-sector-pimco-mortgage/8/19/2010/id/29700

Leftback said...

We have been grinding for hours already in an enormously pleasurable manner. I think Karen is probably ready for a good ramping now.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Who knew the English were such Cassanovas? I thought you guys were just frumpy and had lots of dentures. Heck, maybe Brad Pitt is English..?

karen said...

C'MON MAN song of the day, there must be some kinda way outta here

karen said...

cute headline of the day: BreakingNews

U.S. stocks tumble on bad news about jobs and manufacturing http://bit.ly/bck7NS

Leftback said...

All my own teeth, Bruce, and actually not very pasty looking.
It's amazing what a little sunshine can do.

mcHAPPY said...

I think of all sorts of things while staining with a little Matt Mays blaring in the background. Came in to check and whaddya know:

If 1219.8 to 1181.8 was minute 1 of minor 1 for 38 points THEN

1129.54 to 1067.75 would be 1.618 the length of minute 1 of minor 1. IF August 9-16 was minute 1 of minor 3 we reached 1069.49 in the cash and I believe 1066.?? in the futures overnight.

Interesting....

karen said...

well, i'm english.. these are my real teeth, but i do have 2 crowns.. a molar i cracked on duck shot and a central incisor that required a root canal (and subsequently a cap.) your trivia for the day.. as if I haven't given you enuf already !

72bat said...

really, karen? by birth or descent? or guilt by association?

arbitrage789 said...

Perhaps CV should require dental records from now on.

McFearless said...

close above 1085, wimpy dead cat relief bounce tomorrow,

and then the crazy man said

mercury just so happens to be going into retrograde again tomorrow at 3:59 EST....chart it, embrace it

C'mon Man!

karen said...

oh my word.. they aren't really going to melt this up into the close, are they?

karen said...

actually, i've been mistaken for french in other countries.. my father looked like a spaniard.. his nickname was Black Jack.

Leftback said...

C'mon, Karen. You LOVE an afternoon ramping.

Leftback said...

"actually, i've been mistaken for french in other countries"

Really. Do you have linguistic abilities?

McFearless said...

must close above 1085

karen said...

Ben, I will be furious if even 1080 is regained. 1060 tomorrow or bust..

mcHAPPY said...

Karen - Prepare to release your fury.

FYI - .5 retrace of 1099-1070 is 1084.5.

McFearless said...

get some Three Olives, it'll make it all better

for a few hours anyway.

mcHAPPY said...

Ben,

I don't get the impulsive vibe from this move down.

I'm thinking a b wave just ended and we are going to do a c to finish a flat. In this case I'm not so certain about 1116 but a little move in to VERY low 1100's.

What are you thinking?

karen said...

Here's something for you all to sink your.. um.. teeth into: zerohedge

New post: Matterhorn's von Greyerz Explains Why The Apocalypse Is Nigh http://tinyurl.com/35qctgb

McFearless said...

I've seen some people on the web blasting Kyle Bass with the following:

1. fearmongering
2. debating textbook theory with reality

lmao

doubt that is anything new for him, I'm sure he was laughed out of many rooms with his views in 2007

and thennnnnnnnnnn.......

karen said...

All I want now is to get out of my gold short : )

karen said...

Ben @ 3:29, I'm in shock! His argument was faultless.. that must be the deficits don't matter crowd..

McFearless said...

McHappy,

I hear you man, why is volume not heavier if this is a third wave (ok, maybe it's the kick-off of wave 3...but really?, this would seem forced) does seem more like a B, or some goofy X wave.

Keep an eye on the pivots around your targets:

http://pivotfarm.com/pivot-points.php

I was watching the R1 DeMark daily and weekly area as being a key area where we might see a slight overshoot, pivots on those have moved down every so slightly.

McFearless said...

"that must be the deficits don't matter crowd"

hmm, I was thinking more the dumb ass crowd but you are nicer than I am.

McFearless said...

I closed my CAT short today, I made a little bit but overall that trade was a little dissapointing. I'll come back again, but I think maybe little bounce tomorrow and there's that whole weekend to deal with.

karen said...

Darn.. I accidentally refreshed the Matterhorn interview.. I hate it when I do that !!

Leftback said...

TLT might execute a Reverse Matterhorn Maneuver next week, or as soon as tomorrow.

Karen, you can get out of your gold short, or boy shorts, any time.

Leftback said...

Matterhorn another long gold/long TBT shop. Graveyards....

karen said...

"structural decline of the west.." "paper $ was supposed to be a medium of exchange and store of value"

McFearless said...

the big claim against bass is that "you can't look at a government balance sheet like you can a household balance sheet" a claim which can never be completely backed up by those stating it, because it's an idea that has never been proven and in fact, we all know governments can and do...default.

not that I care to get into money theory debate, but people that say stuff like this are the same crew that will never understand what the golden ratio means for markets.

If you hold the nautilus shell overtop of the perfect mathmatical golden ratio THEORY what you are going to find is that it will mirror the golden spiral in it's tightest portion but the further it goes out the more it deviates from the mathmatical theory, it is not exactly the same, as many claim it to be, and this goes for everything that involves the golden ratio, look at Ra's creditcane picture as another example markets are no different, neither is monetary policy if I felt like diving into it.

There is reality, and there are textbooks.

karen said...

"you can't print gold" "gold reflects a stable value"

"all gold is doing is reflecting the printing of money".. amen : )

LB, what don't you get about this??? Obviously, you haven't lived as many lifetimes as CV and I, laughing..

karen said...

Ben.. did you read Macro Man yesterday? I loved this part: TMM is reminded of a time, many years ago when they were fresh-faced naive graduates doing a trading simulation where the guy running the training programme made the simulation do stupid things that make no sense and would never happen in real life just to throw us off. How mistaken we were... Perhaps the PBOC hired the guy?

McFearless said...

while it is true that you can't print gold, if that is a supply and demand comment then it is not applicable to markets. Examples can follow if need be, but I doubt anyone cares, I just like to disagree with everything.

McFearless said...

Karen,

ha, no I missed that. I have too many sites I'm trying to read now on a day to day basis, getting hard to keep up. there are a lot of good blogs out there.

CV said...

How stupid am I?

I've been stuck in the "pre-200 comment" area for the past hour & a half...

McFearless said...

as I see it the primary flaw in the thinking that you can't compare household vs. government because the government can "print" is that these people all fail to understand that everyone will want to protect themselves from this action the more it goes on, and therefore the printing ability is not truly up to the government, printing as a stand-alone cannot ever be a final solution, but we are going to live through this and see it so no point in me saying anything else.

McFearless said...

CV,

3:49

C'mon Man!

So dude, I gotta ask, ....rough nite at the gym last night? You were all kinds of fired up.

karen said...

CV! LOL.. happens to the best of us.. but I did post especially for you at 2:47 and 3:06.. a lot in between, too : )

CV said...

The scary thing about today is that if you want to look at DAILY candles, you can almost see a "price channel" formed...

7/20 low to todays low (lower channel)
8/2 - 8/9 daily CLOSES (top channel)

Potentially, that could lead to 1150...

karen said...

if we close under 1085 and particularly 1080, ben is going to witness my linguistic ability : )

McFearless said...

well, no 1085 today...I would love to see us just puke out tomorrow but I don't think it's going to happen.

McFearless said...

oh well, if that's the case I'm all for a close under 1080

linguistics man!

CV said...

@McF

I wasn't in a particularly bad mood last night...

Every once in a while though, I'll read a particular "yo-yo" comment somewhere, and I'll get motivated by it...

CV said...

where's my 3:55 "surprise announcement"?

McFearless said...

I've taken to punching my pillows a couple times.

karen said...

you guys are funny.. with CV, i suspect it's cheap canned beer.
just to get you riled, ben, as a goldbug.. i'm really counting on the gold cartel to put my dzz in the $. oh, and the close? 1075, baby! : P

72bat said...

1075.58 - the floor is yours, english.

McFearless said...

lol, effing gold cartels.

Oppenheimer is calling me right now...I think that can go to VM.

McFearless said...

also, if you need to unleash on your pillow, it's best to make each hit coincide with a word, like:

You. People. Don't. Know. About. Fibo. Nacci.

1. .. 6. 1. 8.

like that

Leftback said...

Grabbed a knife or two, and not a drop of blood spilled. Mind you, LB has become highly experienced in the art of knife catching.....

This bond market action is.. I believe the term is: "WACK".

Now I can do the Twenty Questions at Macro Man !!!

McFearless said...

I have to say, I laughed hardest at the claim that Kyle Bass was "fearmongering" that gem came from Venn Data at TBP.

As if he needs to fearmonger, but that persons comments are normally insane, and really, have we come so far now that it is now wise to ridicule one of the handful of people that called the subprime crisis correctly and not just that, made a fortune off of it. Are we really so ingornant that we are going to rely again on the Larry Kudlows of the world to tell us "where we are"

I wonder, how much did Roubini profit off the decline...I would guess a fraction of what Bass made.

Ignore him at your own peril.

karen said...

oh, LB, you are so full of it! go play 20 Questions.. I'll catch up after the beach.. be clever, please!

McFearless said...

@lefty,

Oppenheimer just left me a message and suggested I take a look at

then rattled off several bond funds.

so there you go

McFearless said...

oh, and just in case anyone thought I wasn't going to count, I am going to count.

Zero Hedge is now 0/1 on the days they said you couldn't possible be short.

After three I'm going to yell strikeout, so meet me on 8/26.

Leftback said...

Yes, this is a BOND MANIA... in the short-term....

Karen, I will do my best to be entertaining. Enjoy the beach, and I am sure the beach will enjoy you...

Leftback said...

I think ZH was burned by the Philly Fed number, that was coyote ugly.

CV said...

@McF (4:10) on Bass

Well... We should study the situations from all sides... and take special care to see every angle of it...

and do 1.618 gazillion "scientific" cross-examinations on it and NEVER actually come up with an ALL OUT conclusive conclusion on the subject...

before we give Bass any credit at all...

Then, we can blog about it (rolls eyes)

CV said...

I mean...

No "asset purchase" recommendation should EVER be made unless it is 100% certain, and timed within a fraction of a millisecond of a tick on the market, then executed in REAL TIME...

McFearless said...

the Philly Fed number did them in? Why not claims? Why not Janet Jackson or Sarah Palin?

come on dude, they fucked up, lets not give them outs for such a moronic call they made about this stuff, they specifically said there would be no reason at all to ever be short on any of those days, I failed to see them say...unless Philly Fed is bad, then you can short and that's because they didn't say it and were wrong about what they thought they could do with the "news"

karen said...

Just what I wanted to read.. from one of the sharp guys, no less.. LOL..
@ PIMCO

Crescenzi: At 2%, the real interest rate for the 10-year does not suggest any extreme over-valuation.

karen said...

GET READY! 2.0

karen said...

are we having fun or what ?!

McFearless said...

What would PIMCO know about bonds? lol.

all that aside, find me one example of when sentiment hit an extreme and then turned down quick, I only want to see one...I can't find one, but if you can you'll capture my interest.

McFearless said...

CV,

here is the thing about debating....

I trade for a profit, which requires action

ya heard

CV said...

Prolly nobody wants to see this, but I'm putting a new chart in the thread...

karen said...

ben.. the sentiment is ALL ABOUT shorting yields.. and how could they possibly go lower because of "china".. i have been hearing about china since the dot com days.. LOL.. they did surpass Japan as second largest economy of the world, however..

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/China-Passes-Japan-as-nytimes-2766831302.html?x=0&.v=1

CV said...

NEW CHART in thread

I don't know about you McF... but that looks some what abc-x-ish (within the double price channel)...

CV said...

especially since 107.16 is an exact 50% retrace...

CV said...

I still wouldn't be surprised to see 1056 though...

It's very difficult here...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

"Who was that on the phone? Somebody who wants me to campaign for them!?"

"No, Sir. Don't worry, sir, I will tell you if anybody calls and actually would like you to campaign for them"

"I get so tired of all these damn vacations. Where is it this time? Martha's Vineyard...damn. When will I get something interesting to do?......."

McFearless said...

Karen,

I agree, certainly people are mouth foaming out there about bonds, but it's not one sided, I can find a raging bond bear for every bull. People even change up axis on a chart to make bonds appear in a bubble like stocks were, which is some really funny shet if you ask me.

What's Doug Kass down on that TBT now, how high do yields need to go just to get him back to even now.

whoosh.

from shadow stats last December:

Not all economic downturns are triggered by liquidity crises, but all liquidity crises trigger or intensify economic downturns. In modern economic reporting, year-to-year growth in inflation-adjusted money growth has turned negative only four times before November 2009, and each earlier occurrence signaled either the onset of a major recession or the sharp deterioration in a pre-existing downturn. A renewed fall-off in U.S. economic activity is in place.

.....other than at every time year-to-year change in real money supply has turned negative, year-to-year change in nonfarm payrolls has followed, albeit with varied lead/lag times. Using the cycle growth troughs in real M3 and employment (employment is a coincident indicator of GDP activity) the lead time between M3 and employment averages six months (1970 was nine months, 1974 was seven months, 1981 was two months, and 1991 was six months).

M3 Much?

karen said...

CV.. when has it ever been easy since 2007?!

here's some news to ramp the market tomorrow ; )

Hewlett-Packard reports higher earnings and nearly $31 billion in sales

CV said...

Roger Clemens indicted for perjury

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=5476761

"Americans have a right to expect that witnesses who testify under oath before Congress will tell the truth," United States Attorney Ronald C. Machen Jr. said in a statement announcing the indictment. "Our government can not function if witnesses are not held accountable for false statements made before Congress. Today the message is clear: if a witness makes a choice to ignore his or her obligation to testify honestly, there will be consequences."

So if you're a jock, you're in trouble, but if you're a banker or politician... Meh - it's ok...

McFearless said...

C,

I have no clue what the correct count is on a short term basis, just dont' know for sure, the trend changed in April, that's what I do know for sure.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Obviously jocks should go into banking or investing after they are through...problem solved..

...just a minute, phone, its somebody Nails somethingorother...back in sec.

karen said...

If HP was truly rolling in the meadow... or is that rolling in the hay, frolicking in the meadow, tiptoeing thru the tulips? in any case, they wouldn't have gotten rid of Hurd.. their saviour?

Leftback said...

Karen,

Run don't walk to Macro Man for 20 Questions.
LB has had a jolly time over there.

Tiny Tim said...

Tiptoe Through the Tulips

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=skU-jBFzXl0&feature=search

Leftback said...

The Bond Report 8.19.10

Another day of risk-off amusement for fixed income punters as yields plunged again after the really shitty Philly Fed number crossed at 10am. The 10y hit a low of 2.557% and the 30y 3.622%. This move reversed the morning's mild curve steepener and 2s10s finished at 210 bps.

Early in the day, IG and USTs were outperforming massively but HY made a strong comeback by the end of the day. Spreads widened at the long end and were fairly stable at the shorter end.

Corpies: LQD 0.11%; AGG 0.32%; JNK -0.20%; HYG -0.21%;
Govies: TLT 1.56%; IEI 0.18%; TIP 0.00%

We watched and waited this time, which was a good idea, and then we hedged in early afternoon. The yield on the long bond can't go down every day. Can it?

Leftback said...

Albert Edwards was right. Long term market forecast:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-11030889

"It will eventually become a cold, dead wasteland..."

McFearless said...

We've discussed running before and have provided charts in relation to social mood. This caught my eye:

http://shine.yahoo.com/channel/health/baring-it-all-the-barefoot-running-trend-2337336/

McFearless said...

Lucas Glover running in 2nd at 17.

ding!

Leftback said...

Nice.

The UnSneaker.... Nike are not going to like this.

Wes said...

LBGDF

Anonymous said...

I'd like to thank you for the efforts you've put in penning
this website. I'm hoping to see the same high-grade blog posts by you in the future as well. In fact, your creative writing abilities has encouraged me to get my own blog now ;)
Here is my webpage :: alyssamelodyacupuncture.com

Anonymous said...

Thanks for sharing your thoughts about albigensian.
Regards
Feel free to visit my web site - fishing tee shirt

Anonymous said...

Marvelous, what a webpage it is! This web site provides valuable information to us, keep it up.
Here is my blog post ; Office Furniture Toronto

Anonymous said...

If you are going for best contents like myself, only visit this web page everyday since
it gives quality contents, thanks
Here is my web page ... 404 Not Found

Anonymous said...

I am really impressed with your writing skills and also with the layout on your weblog.

Is this a paid theme or did you customize it yourself?
Either way keep up the nice quality writing, it is rare
to see a nice blog like this one nowadays.
Have a look at my weblog ; Formal Shoes

Anonymous said...

I'm not sure where you're getting your info, but
good topic. I needs to spend some time learning more or understanding more.

Thanks for fantastic info I was looking for this info for my mission.
Here is my web page :: Assi Plaza

Anonymous said...

Hello! This is kind of off topic but I need some help from an established blog.
Is it tough to set up your own blog? I'm not very techincal but I can figure things out pretty quick. I'm thinking about making my own but I'm not sure where to begin. Do you have any ideas or suggestions? Thank you
Feel free to visit my weblog ... cotton candy for sale

Anonymous said...

Hey there are using Wordpress for your blog platform? I'm new to the blog world but I'm trying to get
started and create my own. Do you need any coding knowledge to make your own blog?
Any help would be greatly appreciated!
Take a look at my webpage ... Popflops

Anonymous said...

What a stuff of un-ambiguity and preserveness of valuable familiarity regarding unexpected
emotions.
Also see my website :: http://www.voicewinds.com/cart.php?a=view

Anonymous said...

Do you mind if I quote a couple of your posts as long as I
provide credit and sources back to your webpage?
My website is in the exact same area of interest as yours and my users would
genuinely benefit from a lot of the information you provide here.

Please let me know if this okay with you. Thank you!
My web page ; how to keep mold from growing in your air ducts

Anonymous said...

You actually make it appear really easy along with your presentation however I to find this topic to be actually one thing which I
think I would never understand. It seems too complicated and extremely wide for
me. I am taking a look forward to your next put up, I'll attempt to get the grasp of it!
Also visit my site - Recipes

Anonymous said...

Great delivery. Sound arguments. Keep up the great spirit.
My web-site - http://3dwise.co.uk

Anonymous said...

I don't even know the way I finished up right here, but I thought this put up used to be great. I do not recognize who you might be but certainly you're going to a famous blogger should you are not already.
Cheers!
Also visit my web page home decorating

«Oldest ‹Older   201 – 321 of 321   Newer› Newest»

Post a Comment

Disclosure/Warning

This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.