A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection
Creditcane™: Feed me more credit Seymour. I'm hungry. I need more credit in me before wreaking havoc.
SPXBullish long day. They had to close that gap. Midpoint from last Wednesdays candle held. Back above the SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Below the trendline (3/6/09-5/25/10) but above the next lower trendline (2/5/10-5/6/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1127.24). QE2infinity.
DXYBearish short day again. Now below the SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). May test the 50% retrace and SMA(21) soon. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 80.60).
VIXBearish short day again. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still holding below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. Still below the SMA(89). Held the SMA(144) aka here we go again. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 22.01).
GOLDDoji day. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Slowly inching higher. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1204.10).
EURUSDBullish short day again. Midpoint below the EMA(10). Still below 1.2935 (fib .1459) and the 38.2% retrace. Still below the 3x1 Gann. But it's above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3231).
DJ TRANS AVGBullish long day (resolved doji higher). Running away from trendline. Back above the SMA(55) and SMA(144). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 4452.13).
JNKBearish short day. Now above the 61.8% retrace. Failed to close gap. Back above the SMA(89) and the SMA(144). Midpoint now above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.72).
10YR YIELDBullish long day. Recent gap is resistance (still open). Made new 0.0% fibo retrace at 25.72. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 28.22).
AUDJPYBullish long day. Back above the SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Heading for the 38.2% retrace at 77.8965? No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 79.1783).
TLTBearish long day. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Currently the gap is acting as support (we'll see soon enough). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 99.18).
LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT
The Bond Report 8.17.10
Today was a mild risk-on day in credit. HY rallied early at the expense of IG and Ts, but that move moderated in the last hour. Overall spreads were tighter, especially at the long end.
Corpies: LQD -0.16%; AGG -0.12%; JNK 0.13%; HYG 0.38%;
Govies: TLT -0.57%; IEI -0.18%; TIP -0.22%
We did nothing. We have a modest hedge (higher long end yields) and we see today's trade (spread tightening) continuing for some time against the backdrop of a strong bond market and equity chop.
34 comments:
Karen,
Watched the entire Kyle Bass video on Zero Hedge. Very very interesting.
...How come Krugman never uses terms like "Keynesian end-point"?
Karen
What Bruce said. The way Kyle broke it down should send shivers up traders backs. I need to watch it a few more times (about to download it). Trying to wrap my head around the "debt service exceeds tax revenues" or something to that effect.
From the other thread...
Re: VAT
@DL & BinT
I don't know what everyone is really so worked up about regarding a VAT...
I'm sure LB would chime in on my side on this, but essentially what a VAT would do would be to send an equivalent part of the economy UNDERGROUND...
There would be a "black market" that would arise in the middle markets (to escape it)... Meanwhile, the rich would find it harder to escape the "luxury tax" aspects of conspicuous consumption...
This is how it has operated, for decades, in Europe, and I have no doubt it would operate that way here as well...
So to me... in PRACTICE... It's a non-issue...
Bruce,
The keynesians actually believe what they say, so we aren't going to get any admission from Krugman. I doubt a PhD is going to admit that their lifes work was a sham.
Arrgghh. CNBS hides the link to the videos inside js. Still trying to figure out to how to grab the video.
I still think Karen's 106 is crucial but I doubt we'll see below 1085 this week. May end up packing it in for the week with trading and waiting until next week.
@Amen
C'MON MAN!
Was he succinct or what?! Earnest, too. I appreciate his forthright manner.. Hugh Hendry entertains us with his sarcasm and touch of arrogance.. especially when pitted against his/our opponents. Obviously, Bass was among(st) friends.. It would be fun to see him spar Krugman, for example..
But, AR, what scares the heck out of me is the amount of time it will take for all this to unfold! Seems that everyone is out talking their book; but the shenanigans are cleverly camouflaged.. the charts painted.. the system gamed..
What rather irks me is that the prudent, the fiscally conservative, the judicious, are being punished or penalized at the expense of and for the expediency of the reckless!
When Bass commented, 'surely you remember the lessons your grandfather (ignore the chauvinism!) that your only debt should be a small mortgage..' come now.. does it get any simpler than you cannot live beyond your means..
CASH FLOW! 101! I've lost touch with a fascinating phone card entrepreneur I knew a few years ago.. but even he was all about debt service.. and his other great words.. "never put any money in the stock market that you aren't willing to lose."
@McF
Interesting post from your boy MAXCHERRY (at Dan's)...
"little wonder why the SPX stopped at 1100 with all those puts and calll there
as a side note the SPX has only closed below maxpain on OPEX thurs once in the last year that was this past July, maxpain was 1100 and the SPX closed at 1096 the next day it dropped almost 3% after spending 3 days trying to get through 1100"
But I'll tell you... Dan seems to have this thing breaking down rather quickly (with CAVEAT, of course)...
hahaha.. i was gonna tell you all how I couldn't explain my way out of a paper bag because I don't like to talk..
honestly, i only talk to you all. soorry!
When I began my 9:35pm, only Bruce and Ahab had commented.. Ahab, can't I have a real name! I'm slow with words as well.
@karen
that was AMEN, not AHAB
You're getting your prayers mixed up with your pirates again... I see... :-)
my iphone just locked up.. and I wasn't even sexting..
CV.. four letter words confuse me! and don't ever think I'd be praying.. except to the Sun or Neptune.. : )
Some days are just tough... lol
AMEN "is" the sun (god)
I stretched Bass' profit in 2007, he only made $500 million, not $1 billion. What a slacker. C'mon man.
That interview was all around fantastic, he was awesome.
@CV,
man I was reading that post and wondered if you were going to see it, that's funny.
@Karen,
9:35,.... exactly.
Even my dad called to ask me if I'd heard the Bass interview...talk about viral content!
@karen
Well just don't go praying to the 7th planet from the sun is all we ask...
CV @ 9:12
I'm well aware of the avoidance issue.
As for the "fat cats", they can just buy things in other countries, and bring them in on their yachts and private planes (in order to avoid the tax).
@McF
maxcherry was kind of identifying the thing that I've been saying here since last Thursday...
Watch out for OPEX week, and "protection" of SPY 110 calls...
All I had wrong was the design of the move... I'd anticipated that it might come either a day later, or LAUNCH from a slightly lower level...
I was very close to nailing it perfectly, but alas, didn't profit from it...
CV, i'm not taking that bait, despite the fun I could have.
@DL
What other countries?
Most of western Europe already has VAT...
@DL
Frankly... most of them came to the US to buy these things...
So if Obama institutes a VAT, he'll just be hurting retailers...
More wonderful policy by a great man... He must think this stuff up while on vacation...
I gotta go to bed...
I have NO IDEA what the markets are going to do tomorrow...
I'd laugh my ass off, if there were a 200 point drop in the DOW (followed by a reversal back to 1110 in SPX on Thursday)...
These are the kinds of markets we're in... In fact, that might be tame versus what's to come over the next few months & years...
CV @ 10:10
I don't know, exactly. But there are plenty of countries that don’t have a VAT. Eastern Europe, and most Asian countries, to say nothing of Mexico, Brazil, etc. Certainly, if you’re going to buy a diamond necklace for $50K, you’re not going to pay a 20% VAT.
And for us J6P’s, I suppose online vendors like Amazon might try to set up shop in Mexico. So, yes, it would become very much a cat-and-mouse game between the tax collectors and the shoppers.
speaking of planets, someone made some mention of mercury in retrograde today at Dan's, so being a crazy person I decided to take a look at the dates, prettay prettay interesting, put label markers over your charts:
2009
September 6-September 29
December 26, 2009-January 15, 2010
2010
December 26, 2009-January 15, 2010
April 17 – May 11
August 20-September 12
December 10-December 30
more dates if those spark any interest:
http://www.astrologyzone.com/forecasts/mercury_dates.html
ben, i love that about you!
What's "Keynesian" about bailing out bondholders? How is "Keynesian-ism" discredited by what we've done the past few years?
Call it something else.
As of today's close:
http://www.pivotfarm.com/pivot-points.php
I think that R1 DeMark weekly and daily would be a crucial area for bulls to break through.
did you all notice all the iPads sitting around at the very start of the bass clips?
where does the 4.5 trillion come from David?
Question of the year?
Question of the year.. let's not forget it.
Warning, this may make your head explode:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/17/business/17sorkin.html?_r=1&dbk
Money quote: “There is no urgency”
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