TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Audibles 8.19.10

Morning Audibles 8.19.10

Have I told any of you how much I hate OPEX weeks? It shouldn't necessarily be that way, but in a market which is, um, not exactly fair to the average hack, it's a little hard rowing around in a tiny little boat when at any given moment one of the "TOO BIG TO JAIL" types might find themselves needing to defend a poor trade that they made implicitly with your tax dollars...

Speaking of taxes... I guess we're going to do C'MON MAN all week... This little gem from those wild & crazy "Bloomies"... (followed by my lunatic comments)...

Carbon Profit Grows on Trees as Kiwi Farmers Ditch Sheep

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-18/carbon-cash-accelerates-cull-of-new-zealand-sheep-as-farmers-turn-to-trees.html

Excerpt:

"Belching Cows, Sheep

The nation’s carbon-trading project was expanded in July to require energy producers to pay for their emissions. By 2015, the system will include agriculture, forcing farmers to pay for emissions their cows and sheep make through belching."

I guess we all know what else cows & sheep do besides belch...

And, of course, this all begs the question... Let me re-state that last sentence... "By 2015, the system will include agriculture, forcing farmers to pay for emissions their cows and sheep make through belching."

Is this where we're going people? Let me try to examine how this is going to work in practice...

Let's "cut ~~one~~" to the chase...We'll just call him/her the FARTING CZAR

Appointed by this guy, who is BUBBLING DEEPLY on the economics of it all...

Thou who smelt it, dealt it...

It'll apply to all "57" states... Oh no! beans! Don't eat them! Don't do it!

DOH! I warned you... That'll be a $10 fine son...

Wanna know what I think about your plan? Follow the instructions & find out...

"I think this is a BAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHD idea"

So do my brothers... Let's come up with a new idea, then you can decide...

321 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 1 – 200 of 321 Newer› Newest»

CV said...: -500k jobs...

The "recoveryless recovery" is in full effect...; August 19, 2010 at 9:02 AM
CV said...: Tell me when that POMO thing is over...; August 19, 2010 at 9:04 AM
Anonymous said...: I am just amazed at how incredibly stupid everyone is-

these best and brightest- (but then- I think maybe they are the smart ones- grabbing all they can with both hands while they can)

and the claims number "a surprise"- wow- why am I not surprised?

so is it really a surprise? Or are we acting like its a surprise- because things are going along so swimmingly?

It's all a big show; August 19, 2010 at 9:05 AM
mcHAPPY said...: Nice post as usual.

Skimmed through last night comments and I'm getting my wife and daughter fitted for matching burkas.

I have to laugh at jobless numbers and the revisions that get little to no mention. In the headline - "Jobless claims jump 12K to 500K" - and I'm like wait a second, claims were ONLY (lol) 482K last month, WTF? But then the revision comes in with 'last week was raised 6K', riiiight. This seems to be happening every week. Anyways, it is what is - pointless. Why? Because if news headlines really were the sole reason markets moved, we should be crashing in the futures RIGHT NOW. Can't wait to see what comes out at 11:30. I'm off to change a diaper and burka shop.; August 19, 2010 at 9:06 AM
CV said...: WEDNESDAY, 28 APRIL 2010 22:00

"Vice President Joe Biden predicted job growth of 250,000 to 500,000 jobs a month in the next two months, according to CNBC on Monday. Biden was speaking at a political fundraiser in Pittsburgh, where he said, “We caught a lot of bad breaks on the way down. We’re going to catch a few good breaks because of good planning on the way up.... All in all, we’re going to be creating somewhere between 100,000 and 200,000 jobs next month.” Even though some have cautioned Biden about his excessive and premature enthusiasm, Biden continued: “I’m here to tell you some time in the next couple of months we’re going to be creating between 250,000 jobs a month and 500,000 jobs a month.”; August 19, 2010 at 9:08 AM
AmenRa said...: What happened to the BoJ intervention I kept hearing about all last night? Is the BoJ trying to talk down the yen? That's not going to do it. Not anymore.; August 19, 2010 at 9:10 AM
CV said...: 1/11/09 12:15 PM EST

"While warning of tough times ahead, Obama has upped the number of jobs his plan will create twice in three weeks.

President-elect Obama raised the jobs forecast for his stimulus plan from 3 million to as many as 4 million on Saturday, upping the ante of his economic blueprint for the second time in three weeks.

The president-elect also rebutted conservative claims that his plans would create new bureaucracies, saying 90 percent of the new jobs would be in the private sector, up from the “more than 80 percent” he claimed last weekend.

Two weekends before he takes the oath of office, Obama also said he now favors a slightly bigger price tag. “We have assumed a package just slightly over the $775 billion currently under discussion,” says a 13-page report released Saturday by his transition office.

The report, “The Job Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan,” warns: “In the absence of stimulus, the economy could lose another 3 to 4 million more” jobs.; August 19, 2010 at 9:10 AM
CV said...: @Amen

"What happened to the BoJ intervention I kept hearing about all last night?"

It'll be like the KNEEJERK off an FOMC meeting...

Markets do nothing, then when everyone feel confident and goes off to take a leak... WHAMMO!; August 19, 2010 at 9:15 AM
CV said...: @Amen

OPEX week... What do you expect?

Pin the tail on the donkey...; August 19, 2010 at 9:15 AM
Anonymous said...: I’m here to tell you some time in the next couple of months we’re going to be creating between 250,000 jobs a month and 500,000 jobs a month.

where? the USG? Target? Government Motors? Small business's aren't hiring anyone- and won't be either-

the small business owner is more likely to shut shop and get out while he can; August 19, 2010 at 9:15 AM
CV said...: no offense LB (donkey); August 19, 2010 at 9:16 AM
CV said...: @ahab

Maybe they were all "travel & leisure" jobs for all the vacations...

- caddies?
- greenskeepers?
- beer cart girls?

I'm just working on ideas here...; August 19, 2010 at 9:22 AM
Anonymous said...: . . .and the GM stock sale-

in my view- that company should be out of business-

they lost all my respect when they went begging to the USG for $$$ to stay afloat-

like British Leyland years ago

they should have filed bankruptcy long before all the genuflecting in front of Congress-

but they didn't want to because it would have most likely been liquidation-

well sometimes- your best days are behind you; August 19, 2010 at 9:26 AM
CV said...: "but they didn't want to because it would have most likely been liquidation"

---

Liquidation of thousands of a UNIONIZED LABOR FORCE with blue colored voting cards?

Not going to happen...; August 19, 2010 at 9:28 AM
McFearless said...: “I’m here to tell you some time in the next couple of months we’re going to be creating between 250,000 jobs a month and 500,000 jobs a month.”

What is the ticker symbol for we're?

Does anyone know where their headquarters are? I have several clients out of work, since we're is goig to be hiring up to half a million people per month I'm going to suggest they apply.; August 19, 2010 at 9:32 AM
Anonymous said...: Liquidation of thousands of a UNIONIZED LABOR FORCE with blue colored voting cards?

no doubt- but if GM voluntarily went into bankruptcy (a reasonable business decision)-

how would congress have had any control how that played out; August 19, 2010 at 9:33 AM
McFearless said...: can't tell from here if the dollar needs another leg down in the near term or not, if not I'm watching the ~83.60 area as the next upside target to break through.; August 19, 2010 at 9:34 AM
Anonymous said...: I have a meeting to roll out to and I am still sitting in my gym shorts!

all have a good day; August 19, 2010 at 9:35 AM
CV said...: @McF (9:32)

I found that ticker symbol you were looking for...

It's STFU

So I guess it's listed on Nasdaq ;-); August 19, 2010 at 9:35 AM
karen said...: morning! and I thot last night was crazy.. shaking my head.. : ); August 19, 2010 at 9:45 AM
CV said...: @karen

Are you shaking your head or is your head shaking you?; August 19, 2010 at 9:49 AM
karen said...: well, i have rather determined that this market is hazardous to my health!; August 19, 2010 at 9:50 AM
karen said...: http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/08/jobless-claims-breach-500000.html

" In the old days when the Fed was not manipulating almost every market with price distortions this would be something to worry about as weekly jobless claims are an excellent early indicator of future stock market movements.

Now? Nothing to see here - move along; the 'summer of (Canadian) recovery' continues on track. Remember, less workers = more profits for corporates & more easy money for us all as the Fed gets more desperate and bewildered.. All part of the master plan to reach nirvana where no one in America needs to work, freeing us to shop 24 hours a day, while the Fed does QE #78 thru #93. We'll let the Canadians, Australians, Chinese, Brazilians, and Indians do the work. In return for their services and products, we will hand out "super cool" U.S Treasuries."; August 19, 2010 at 9:55 AM
CV said...: I'm sure Pelosi thinks a higher unemployment claims number is better...

Why? because then they can extend benefits (and we all know how that stimulates an economy)...

To wit:

Pelosi: “This (unemployment benefits) is one of the biggest stimuluses (I know, not a word) to our economy. Economists will tell you this money is spent quickly, it injects demand into the economy. It creates jobs faster than almost any other initiative you can name."; August 19, 2010 at 10:04 AM
karen said...: 1070-71?; August 19, 2010 at 10:04 AM
Leftback said...: Ouch. Philly Fed...
...that will help the FED and PDs profit from the POMO....

ahab - gym shorts = TMI !!!; August 19, 2010 at 10:05 AM
Leftback said...: 1070 sounds like the plan.; August 19, 2010 at 10:09 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Pizza Hut Is Slicing Prices to Promote Sales

On Wednesday August 18, 2010, 6:22 pm EDT

...Not inflationary?

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Pizza-Hut-Is-Slicing-Prices-nytimes-2107607210.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=; August 19, 2010 at 10:11 AM
Leftback said...: TLT closing in on double top at 106 ish.
The PDs can sell 'em now....; August 19, 2010 at 10:11 AM
CV said...: Where's the POMO?

Oh the conspiracy!

Tyler... TYLER...TYLER!; August 19, 2010 at 10:11 AM
Leftback said...: We are already in mild deflation/recession.
The question is how mild?; August 19, 2010 at 10:12 AM
Leftback said...: MUST... NOT.... CATCH.... FALLING.... KNIFE....; August 19, 2010 at 10:12 AM
karen said...: hmm.. if i could get a foto of what i'm sitting around in we could have a new avatar!; August 19, 2010 at 10:13 AM
mcHAPPY said...: I can see a nice a and b formed off 1069.

I can also see an abc followed by i and ii down.

I'm thinking we go higher before lower. As usual, I hope I'm wrong.; August 19, 2010 at 10:15 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: I, too, once sat in a large area of whipped cream Karen....I assume that is what you are talking about....; August 19, 2010 at 10:16 AM
Leftback said...: Please, Karen, don't feel inhibited. Go right ahead....; August 19, 2010 at 10:18 AM
AmenRa said...: Funny thing about options. I always try to split the bid/ask. The next trade on that particular option is always higher than my limit. BUT I DON'T CHASE. Been there done that. Either I get in at my limit order or I don't. You will not scalp a few extra pennies on my behalf.; August 19, 2010 at 10:26 AM
72bat said...: k -
what good is that i-phone if not candid snapshots?; August 19, 2010 at 10:26 AM
AmenRa said...: Karen

What are you waiting for? The market will plunge as traders pay attention to your new avatar and not their trades. :-); August 19, 2010 at 10:27 AM
AmenRa said...: BTW

MUST...HOLD...1078.87...OR...ELSE...; August 19, 2010 at 10:29 AM
Leftback said...: Happiness is a bond-heavy portfolio...; August 19, 2010 at 10:29 AM
Leftback said...: LB is thinking, "no need to be the first mouse today..."; August 19, 2010 at 10:30 AM
karen said...: Bruce, you knew i'd take that bait! Altho I rather hope the imagine resembles Ben's sun spot..; August 19, 2010 at 10:34 AM
Leftback said...: TLT new high. Second mouse...; August 19, 2010 at 10:36 AM
karen said...: Ben, I bet that the next time I caution against TBT.. more than you will heed my words! Hilarious that I was such a bond bear at one time..; August 19, 2010 at 10:39 AM
karen said...: from ZH - POMO schedule released

http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/pomo/display/index.cfm; August 19, 2010 at 10:42 AM
Leftback said...: TLT has gone effing parabolic this week. Beware the parabola.
Are we turning Japanese or what?

This is a dream environment for bonds, all bonds.; August 19, 2010 at 10:44 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Yes, avatar futures are rallying...; August 19, 2010 at 10:46 AM
karen said...: There is no way I can believe this:

Williams-Sonoma Inc.'s second-quarter profit soared, hitting a record for the period and bucking the weakening sales trends reported by other retailers as merchandising changes and reduced discounting boosted sales and leveraged lower store and operating costs.

Key brand Pottery Barn continued its turnaround, leading a 27.6% improvement in the parent company's Internet sales, and Williams-Sonoma again raised its forecast for the year. It now projects earnings of $1.63 to $1.70 a share on revenue growth of 9% to 11%, compared with its May prediction of $1.39 to $1.48 and 6% ...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704476104575439112267561140.html?mod=rss_whats_news_us_business; August 19, 2010 at 10:47 AM
karen said...: all i want is 15.81 for my faz..

drv is still a nightmare.. if it hadn't lost nearly 4 pts since Monday, it would be looking good today..

oh! look at copper..; August 19, 2010 at 10:51 AM
karen said...: DR this morning:

• Bond yields must go down more

• Credit strains linger: bank-wide loan delinquency rates actually rose in Q2, to a new high of 7.32% from 7.26% in Q1 and 6.44% a year ago; August 19, 2010 at 10:54 AM
Leftback said...: The outlook is a bit fuzzy today, perhaps it will be clearer as the day progresses... but things look quite promising.; August 19, 2010 at 10:55 AM
72bat said...: ...and we thought the view from the KT was breath-taking!; August 19, 2010 at 10:55 AM
Leftback said...: Credit crisis has migrated to individuals and governments.
These low rates are a gift to corporate borrowers, thanks to ZIRP.; August 19, 2010 at 10:56 AM
CV said...: Speaking of "fuzzy"...

Can someone please explain to me the 146.32 print on TLT?; August 19, 2010 at 10:58 AM
karen said...: CAT reached the top of its game, I think:

Caterpillar, the world's largest manufacturer of construction machinery, said world-wide sales of its equipment rose 32% during the three-month period ended in July, compared with the same period a year earlier. The July report was the third straight rolling three-month period of sales expansion for the Peoria, Ill., company since mid-2008. For the three months ended in June, machinery sales rose 22%, and increased 11% in May.

North American retail sales surged 38% in July, following a 26% increase in the June period. Meanwhile, in Latin America, sales climbed 32% in July, after rising 18% in the June period.; August 19, 2010 at 10:58 AM
karen said...: BAD TICK! it's not on the ten min chart..; August 19, 2010 at 10:59 AM
CV said...: I have on all my charts...

Probably a fat finger of 106.32; August 19, 2010 at 11:01 AM
CV said...: TBT got within 4 cents of the 31.39 (ABC - 1.618) level CV spoke of yesterday...; August 19, 2010 at 11:02 AM
Leftback said...: Karen, I am in shock and awe...
Do you think TNX can make a run at 2.50% ?; August 19, 2010 at 11:04 AM
karen said...: even tho i mentioned 1070 earlier.. 1065 is the biggie. remember what we said last week about "what are they afraid of? that 1065 might not hold?"; August 19, 2010 at 11:04 AM
karen said...: Sub 2.5, LB.. 2.46 perhaps? breaking 2.6 was.. the breaking point, laughing.. didn't you read my post on that yesterday!!; August 19, 2010 at 11:06 AM
karen said...: the gld dump may have begun.. check the 60 min candles..; August 19, 2010 at 11:08 AM
Leftback said...: Curve Watchers Anonymous are very impressed, Karen...; August 19, 2010 at 11:08 AM
mcHAPPY said...: Key levels right here, right now :

1069.49
1065.25
1056.88; August 19, 2010 at 11:12 AM
mcHAPPY said...: Karen,

I always knew you were a cheeky little devil.; August 19, 2010 at 11:13 AM
karen said...: I don't know.. i just checked spx on the 60 min.. and 1075 has some merit in a manipulated market.. take a straight edge from July low to 1070, too.. ugh..; August 19, 2010 at 11:15 AM
Leftback said...: LB could live with one of those range-bound markets, say trapped between 1070 and 1125, while we figure out whether we are in a double-dip recession or the New Normal.; August 19, 2010 at 11:15 AM
karen said...: McHappy.. I really am! laughing.. hard to resist a good dare, too.. especially after all CV's bottom talk last night..; August 19, 2010 at 11:16 AM
karen said...: GS joining Meredith??

If no one wants to borrow money even as long-term interest rates are low and going lower, then it’s hard to see how a bank is going to make money. That, at least, is the view of an analyst at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE:GS) who has cut 2011 price targets and EPS estimates for seven large US banks.

http://247wallst.com/2010/08/19/goldman-sachs-cuts-big-bank-targets-estimates-gs-bac-c-jpm-ms-pnc-usb-wfc/; August 19, 2010 at 11:17 AM
karen said...: I am now completely convinced that 1060 will hold.. as a worst/best case scenario for today.; August 19, 2010 at 11:21 AM
CV said...: @karen (11:15)

That's what I was looking at too...

Plus, volume isn't as hefty as I'd like it to be on this move...; August 19, 2010 at 11:21 AM
Leftback said...: We were so close to Karen's Top, and now we are all about bottoms.
The avatar switch was obviously timely.; August 19, 2010 at 11:22 AM
mcHAPPY said...: Oh, 1075.16 is a good one to watch as well.

I'm not liking the slow down here. I should go back staining the deck and maybe when I come back we'll have broke 1056.

One more push lower could viewed as 5 down. A push back to 1085-1095 range is probable.; August 19, 2010 at 11:22 AM
mcHAPPY said...: Scratch that, we don't need a push lower for 5 down to be complete - it could already be.; August 19, 2010 at 11:23 AM
Leftback said...: Peak VIX today at 26. 3-month bills at 15 bps.
That's like a 2/10 on the panic gauges. This feels scripted.; August 19, 2010 at 11:24 AM
Leftback said...: Karen,

If you bring that firm bottom avatar back, LB promises that we could grind higher for the rest of the day.; August 19, 2010 at 11:26 AM
mcHAPPY said...: I'm gone. A nice a and b complete. The (a) of c should fill the gaps from today, b brings out more hope, c brings finger pointing and laughing from the bulls/self-loathing and questioning from the bears, and a final push to 1116.

I'm gone staining.; August 19, 2010 at 11:26 AM
CV said...: I'm sort of seeing this as being "trapped" between the LD of what karen pointed out (11:15)...

And going back up and doing a final RE-TEST of the 144 WEEK MA (which is back up at 1107 now [weekly]), and might get a view before any real breakdown occurs...

at least that's how it KINDA worked out in '08...

That 144MA weekly has been a pretty $$ indicator for many years... (together with the 89 - the Louise Yamada line)...; August 19, 2010 at 11:28 AM
karen said...: uh-oh.. zerohedge

$102 billion on deck - Treasury announces new UST issuance calendar: 37, 36, 29 billion in 2s/5s/7s; August 19, 2010 at 11:28 AM
Leftback said...: EUR-JPY 109.6900 -0.1500 -0.14%

That's not very bearish. Carry trade unwind seems unlikely here.; August 19, 2010 at 11:31 AM
karen said...: LB.. I think you are forgetting the $xad unwind.. headwinds building across all fronts in Oz.; August 19, 2010 at 11:33 AM
karen said...: that was timely.. let's find out where this bottom is.. perhaps not 1075 afterall.; August 19, 2010 at 11:33 AM
Leftback said...: Agreed on Oz and Canada, but we are not "THERE" yet.

POMO Details

If I was at ZH, I would say:

POMO, Bitchez !!; August 19, 2010 at 11:34 AM
AmenRa said...: Slowly but surely the AUDJPY & EURJPY have been creeping higher after hitting their lows earlier. Tread carefully.; August 19, 2010 at 11:35 AM
AmenRa said...: I see LB has noticed it also.; August 19, 2010 at 11:36 AM
Leftback said...: TLT new high. Ouch, said the first mouse (not LB).; August 19, 2010 at 11:37 AM
Leftback said...: EM stocks and HY credit holding up surprisingly well.; August 19, 2010 at 11:39 AM
CV said...: POMO Bitchez!

(how do you like that for effect lb?); August 19, 2010 at 11:42 AM
CV said...: ROMO Bitchez!; August 19, 2010 at 11:45 AM
Leftback said...: Nice. Although not the most exciting avatar of the day.; August 19, 2010 at 11:46 AM
Leftback said...: You could always look at LB's avatar as a HEADLESS CHICKEN....; August 19, 2010 at 11:47 AM
Anonymous said...: excellent fanny; August 19, 2010 at 11:47 AM
karen said...: this guy is goofy, but nonetheless: themosmitsos

SPX 1066 objective . MUST . HOLD . #PPT #PlungeProtectionTeam #PeePeeTeam

A lot of us are on that 1065 page.. if the 1070 page gets turned.; August 19, 2010 at 11:51 AM
CV said...: Anybody catching these falling knives?; August 19, 2010 at 11:53 AM
karen said...: that's an ugly rev H&S on drv but i would love to see it play out..
bot vxx yesterday at 22.10.. holding for now.
returned my FAZ to the market in 15.80s.. only 2k shares : ); August 19, 2010 at 11:53 AM
karen said...: i have nothing to catch as i'm already short! and i'm not touching tbt : ); August 19, 2010 at 11:54 AM
CV said...: @karen

TBT hit that 31.39 mark I was talking about...

All I can say is, it's tempting because the FIBS on that thing are damn near perfect (going all the way back to June of last year)...; August 19, 2010 at 11:56 AM
karen said...: zerohedge - Retail Investors Don't Care If Stocks Are Up Or Down, Retail Just Wants Out - Record 15th Weekly Outflow http://bit.ly/94NTfW; August 19, 2010 at 11:56 AM
karen said...: mrtopstep

Phily keepin bulls sidelined tried pickin bottom but $ES_F no bounces now 1066 area sup looms large. Fails or holds shud see 5 hndle move; August 19, 2010 at 11:57 AM
karen said...: zerohedge - There has not been an inflow into domestic stock mutual funds since April; August 19, 2010 at 11:59 AM
Leftback said...: No knives for LB. Yet.

JOHNNY has been calling BRIAN's office. TAWNY is handling it.
BRIAN tends to be "on the road" on days like today.

LB is guessing JANE and JOHN want to buy up some Treasuries.; August 19, 2010 at 12:02 PM
Leftback said...: 1070.66 the low for the day.; August 19, 2010 at 12:03 PM
CV said...: @karen

Anecdotally... The group of guys I play golf with (and it's a large group of 30 or more - most with decent sized portfolios and near retirement ages)...

I don't "advise" any of them, but I provide market chatter (the type we banter on about here)...

Well - It's taken awhile to get thru to them (last year they thought I was off my rocker being bearish - AND I'll admit I was for awhile because MY TOP was closer to the Kass top than yours)...

Anyway - since about May, I think I've gotten thru to most of them and most have moved big chunks of their holdings into T-BILLS...

None of them want to touch stocks with a 10 foot pole...; August 19, 2010 at 12:06 PM
Leftback said...: EURJPY has slipped again. There is a bit more room below...

The 1065-1070 area has seen a lot of daily lows, Karen is correct that the 1065 is therefore likely to be defended vigorously. That should form the kind of firm perfectly rounded bottom we are so focused on today.; August 19, 2010 at 12:09 PM
karen said...: An odd tweet: Curious facts that sometimes keep me awake at nite: "twelve plus one" uses same letters that spell "eleven plus two"; August 19, 2010 at 12:10 PM
karen said...: CV.. any of them talking about gold?; August 19, 2010 at 12:12 PM
CV said...: I really truly believe that the stock market is being held up by the HFT algos, and it will eventually RESET downwards (when it's ready)...

It's just amusing to me how many EWI variations can get triggered in the process...

I think, in the broader picture... ANDY T, & AMEN RA have been valuable assets (for traders)...

- Andy, because of his "outlier" EWI possibilities (ben too)
- Amen, bring 3lb theory to the table

When you consider BOTH, it's understandable HOW the market can remain buoyant here while so many things are breaking down all around...

I mean, according to both theories, it's still to early to rule out going as high as 1180...

The window is closing FAST on that possibility, but as long as it remains, one must be prepared for this WHIPSAW action...

Just an observation...; August 19, 2010 at 12:12 PM
karen said...: another target is 10200.. keep in mind that the dow broke it's straight edge uptrend from July.. twice now..; August 19, 2010 at 12:15 PM
CV said...: @karen

"CV.. any of them talking about gold?"

Strangely - NOT REALLY... And I mean EVER...

I've been playing golf with these guys since 1998, and told most of them to GET INTO GOLD in 2004 (when I did)...

I got laughed out of town...

Frankly, nobody really UNDERSTANDS it... They still think of it as an ARMAGEDDON play... And none of them is really facing ARMAGEDDON with their cushy lives and 3 days at the country club weekend...; August 19, 2010 at 12:15 PM
karen said...: mrtopstep

hlcamp1 [09:43:36 AM]: Normal Program Selling Low = 1075.00 hlcamp1 [10:52:43 AM]: Extended Program Selling Low = 1069.75; August 19, 2010 at 12:16 PM
McFearless said...: shet! I'm missing all the fun, been in mtgs all morning.

POMO = MOMO nuff said. ZH is sort of pathetic in this way, they are all conspiracy/insider whiners...but the thing is, if they actually believe why are they so dumb to think that insiders not only already knew about POMO, but had already placed bets accordingly! Wake up already. I saw a ton of people yesterday on Dan's board saying not to short today because of POMO. That was a good enough indicator by itself. That said, my CAT is underperforming today on the downside!

While I expected some selling after the claims figure, I didn't know if we'd crack 1085 max pain, if we close below I think that's only the second close below max pain in the last 18 months or so....that would seem ominous to me.

I hate to disagree with leftback as he's usually on the right side of trades but how confident can you be in a bond bubble getting too much buzz when effing Jeremy Siegal is writing op-eds about them in WSJ???

I'm not sure if that's a big blow to bonds or it's more indicative of people's love affair that reamins with stocks. You'd think he'd have been laughed out of town with the book he wrote a decade ago, one couldn't have given much worse advice, not to mention, his logic is deeply flawed.

either way, I don't find the chart to have a parabolic look if I pull it back further than the YTD, the pattern just doesn't look finished yet from a wave perspective.; August 19, 2010 at 12:18 PM
CV said...: @karen

They DO understand CASH though...

That's why it was EASY, for most, to go to T-BILLS...

Most are in RETURN "OF" CAPITAL, instead of RETURN "ON" CAPITAL MODE...

That's a view from CV's own frontline... It's interesting to talk to these guys...

A few got hit hard being exposed to real estate... But most are just your average plunkers who did well, but stayed within their means...; August 19, 2010 at 12:19 PM
McFearless said...: also, fwiw, I have spoken with several advisors outside my office this week, not a single one are getting clients calling in to buy bonds. I'm sure someone somewhere is, but no, when people call in they continue to want stocks, not funds, individual stocks.

Ford has been a very popular one lately, then the normals...Aapl, etc.; August 19, 2010 at 12:20 PM
Leftback said...: PFE, MRK and BMY are all yielding about 4.4% today.
Not saying this is a big opportunity but you have to think like long funds.

Bonds are not in a bubble. LB has a large fixed income portfolio. However, this has all the hallmarks of a short-term sentiment extreme that are associated with market inflection points.; August 19, 2010 at 12:23 PM
Leftback said...: LB HEARTS the divvy stocks and IG bonds.; August 19, 2010 at 12:24 PM
CV said...: @LB

See... I agree 100x with that...

"Short Term Sentiment Extreme BITCHEZ"!; August 19, 2010 at 12:24 PM
CV said...: Dontcha just LOVE opex week (in August)?; August 19, 2010 at 12:26 PM
CV said...: Oh... and I forgot...

Remember... we'll have some "surprise announcement" coming across the wires at 3:55PM...; August 19, 2010 at 12:27 PM
Leftback said...: PFE, BMY and MRK trading at an average P/E of 9...?
(range 7-12)

There will be buyers.; August 19, 2010 at 12:28 PM
Gomer Pyle said...: Surprise BITCHEZ!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J6_1Pw1xm9U&feature=search; August 19, 2010 at 12:29 PM
McFearless said...: "I really truly believe that the stock market is being held up by the HFT algos"

Different Take: With 70-80% of the volume being accomplished by HFT and god only knows what in the dark pools, the HFT's are "holding up the market" they ARE the market.

and look!, they make Elliott Waves.....; August 19, 2010 at 12:31 PM
CV said...: @LB

PFE...PE...9...ED...10; August 19, 2010 at 12:32 PM
McFearless said...: uh, hold the phone, that's a forward p/e yes? and if it isn't, it is on operating earnings yes?

and if those aren't important, then just remember, earnings need not come down for a huge market decline, we only need social mood not to be willing to pay much for those earnings, we are in fact going to have a bear market again where p/e ratio's across the board reach low single digits....it isn't different this time.; August 19, 2010 at 12:32 PM
CV said...: @mcF

Different take... but same result...

Which actually brings a degree of comfort...

I'll explain...

Have you ever played WSOP (world series of POKER) on, like an X-box...

It didn't take me long to figure out that the "computer" playing the hands of the Johnny Chan avatars were programmed based on a certain style of play...

Soon it became very easy to detect all the patterns of the different players...

Know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em...

I must have won me 5 WSOP Championship bracelets after that...; August 19, 2010 at 12:35 PM
Leftback said...: Ben,

P/E ratios will come down - they always go lower in a bear market - but those big pharmas will keep on rolling and paying a dividend. P/E ratios will come down much more for other companies. Plus they can borrow at almost nothing !!

Income, bitchez..!!; August 19, 2010 at 12:38 PM
CV said...: @McF

"where p/e ratio's across the board reach low single digits....it isn't different this time."

LOL - agreed

That'll be the last argument in the sand... It'll be when MOMOS finally "admit" that the entire bubble in equities & assets WAS IN FACT based on credit...

Until then, they'll DENY it, and say we can't REVERT back that far because the credit still exists in the system... UNTIL IT DOESN'T, of course...; August 19, 2010 at 12:38 PM
McFearless said...: re: sentiment. when bonds hit all time DSI at 99% it ticked off another $10 on TLT before it turned lower. We just recently hit 98% bulls, I'd expect still a little more push before this is over, I never see sentiment mark a high as well as an immediate turn on the underlying asset class there is always some sort of lag, some longer than others.; August 19, 2010 at 12:38 PM
CV said...: @LB

pipelines bitchez!
subsidies bitchez!
patent expirations bitchez!; August 19, 2010 at 12:42 PM
Leftback said...: LB owns these puppies (March 09) and is aware of the headwinds.
A lot of potential problems for Big Pharma are priced in here.
Just dressing the yield producing corner of the portfolio.; August 19, 2010 at 12:44 PM
McFearless said...: leftback,
big pharma and safe dividend? I'll leave that one to you my friend.

Watch the dividend on AstraZeneca over the next 18-24 months, because if you aren't holding for that long, the dividends aren't really relevant. I believe it will come waaaay down...at least for them. MRK ledger I haven't taken a look at in a while.

My location and client base allows me some fairly good access to most big pharma, as well as a number of small companies that do business with big pharma, I also work with a number of sales reps that sell to R&D at big pharma, that sector is in deep shit from my view and things I've been told, I have some very high ups at AZN, and internally I've never seen people so scared. My BAC clients weren't as nervous in 2008 as pharma is right now, I suppose when places like AZ herd 500 people into the cafeteria a few months ago to perform a nice group firing it doesn't help morale.; August 19, 2010 at 12:45 PM
McFearless said...: well, if you owned them since march 09,... I probably wouldn't be sweating, but dude, you gonna take some profits? You are up huge!; August 19, 2010 at 12:47 PM
karen said...: t is paying 6.2% div yield...; August 19, 2010 at 12:49 PM
Leftback said...: Pretty familiar with the territory, Ben.
It's a calibrated risk, like everything else.

The world is not going to end in the New Normal.
Where we are going, even a 2% yield is going to look good.; August 19, 2010 at 12:49 PM
McFearless said...: Dan's board is always funny for sentiment.

I'd say today bears seem scared, with each tiny reward they panic.; August 19, 2010 at 12:50 PM
McFearless said...: Lefty,
re: 2% yield looking good.

it already does look that way right?, someone wrote an article in Barron's I think it was about big dividend payers, I think the largest dividend was 5%. That's not big by any historical comparison but these days it's huge.

T is paying a 6.2% dividend and I believe June 30 it was down 10% on the year, it's come back some during the relief rally, big deal, the trend is down, it'll go down as well.

Dividends are good for the long run, you could lose half your money in AT&T buying now in the name of yield, so when you do break-even?

Of course, how could I be in stocks for the long term here with my world view.

lol!; August 19, 2010 at 12:54 PM
Leftback said...: In the Ritholtz sideways scenario, you would be screaming for yield. Not saying that's where we are going but it is certainly one of the possible outcomes.; August 19, 2010 at 12:54 PM
CV said...: @McF

I've driven by that AZ plant many times on I-95 (right in your neck of the woods)...; August 19, 2010 at 12:55 PM
McFearless said...: and as for the world ending, I'm a P3 believer and that's not going to end the world, I bust on the armageddon talk when it comes to "if the economy goes down..."

the world will not end if we have a P3, it's just going to keep on keeping on.; August 19, 2010 at 12:55 PM
McFearless said...: CV,

it's right by my office. that place is sweet on the inside. very nice.; August 19, 2010 at 12:56 PM
Leftback said...: Think about a Japanese world, no inflation, no yield in bonds.....; August 19, 2010 at 12:56 PM
John Lennon said...: no religion too?; August 19, 2010 at 12:58 PM
Yoko Ono said...: Imagine that...; August 19, 2010 at 12:59 PM
McFearless said...: it is easy if you try; August 19, 2010 at 12:59 PM
McFearless said...: I had Plastic Ono Band on yesterday:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4lKwXwU5iWs; August 19, 2010 at 1:01 PM
McFearless said...: I do think fondly of merck though that was one of my first big trades as I caught the lows after the vioxx scandal; August 19, 2010 at 1:02 PM
Leftback said...: That's the way to trade small pharma and biotech.
Buy the train wrecks, sell the M & A target surge.; August 19, 2010 at 1:03 PM
CV said...: The Plastics!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qLl44pj7a70; August 19, 2010 at 1:04 PM
McFearless said...: yeah I agree with that, with each big lawsuit those things just get taken out to the woodshed, usually sets up a really nice trade.; August 19, 2010 at 1:05 PM
CV said...: @McF

"Ben... I have one word for you..."

PLASTICS BITCHEZ!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PSxihhBzCjk; August 19, 2010 at 1:05 PM
McFearless said...: karen,

did you get some of that FAZ, that's looking pretty nice.; August 19, 2010 at 1:06 PM
McFearless said...: What is the "plastics" for the soon to be graduating classes?

perhaps if there is ever a P3 the new plastics will be Investment Banking

so in the updated version of the Graduate it'll be

just two words...investment banking; August 19, 2010 at 1:08 PM
karen said...: CIM is paying 17.35% (puts JNK to shame!) and you can by thousands and thousands of shares at under $4

NZT, 10.86%

GOL (brazilian airline) over 11+%; August 19, 2010 at 1:08 PM
CV said...: More likely it'll be

"The sound of silence"; August 19, 2010 at 1:09 PM
McFearless said...: I need Ryan Moore and Lucas Glover to shoot well this week.

C'mon Man!; August 19, 2010 at 1:09 PM
CV said...: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oLEmyeQlS5M&feature=related; August 19, 2010 at 1:09 PM
karen said...: ben, you clearly are not reading my posts.. anyway.. bot faz yesterday and day before sold today in 15.80s.. (I also posted on T, above!) LOL; August 19, 2010 at 1:11 PM
McFearless said...: there was a special on HBO recently, think it was the R&R Hall of Fame or something, tons of huge bands, but what I remember when i watched it, Simon and Garfunkel sounded awesome, their set was really good.

anyone know what show that was?; August 19, 2010 at 1:12 PM
McFearless said...: I've missed about half the posts yesterday and today, been a bit hectic in the office.; August 19, 2010 at 1:12 PM
Leftback said...: CIM is finance... danger....
NZT is interesting, good spot.

LB is only talking about small portfolio increments.; August 19, 2010 at 1:13 PM
karen said...: Ben.. it's fine : )

mrtopstep, Risk Reversal Trade on $VIX watch Sonar Report here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rp8jf1YDa-I; August 19, 2010 at 1:15 PM
McFearless said...: I could be wrong as I haven't really looked in a long time but I would guess there are some preferreds out there paying a nice div that could be worth a position.; August 19, 2010 at 1:15 PM
McFearless said...: I bet we close above 1085.; August 19, 2010 at 1:16 PM
karen said...: LB. if you like NZT you might like MTA; August 19, 2010 at 1:16 PM
karen said...: NLY paying over 15%; August 19, 2010 at 1:18 PM
karen said...: caveat on NLY.. i think their latest div announcement is 20 cents or so lower than last quarter.; August 19, 2010 at 1:20 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a5N78UmY1lpg

Nordics Face Housing Losses That May Spark Double Dip

Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- House prices in Sweden, Finland and Norway may slump, derailing one of the strongest rebounds in Europe and threatening to drive their economies back into recession.

Swedish real estate may fall as the 20 percent of borrowers with the biggest debts struggle with burdens as much as 46 times their disposable incomes, says Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. Norway’s central bank says low interest rates risk overheating its lending and property markets, while euro-member Finland says a bubble may be forming in its housing market.

“I’m very worried,” Finnish Finance Minister Jyrki Katainen said in an interview. “There could be a housing bubble in the making in Finland. There is a risk that mortgage borrowing costs are too low.”

House prices in the three countries rose last year even as their economies contracted and unemployment shot up, creating imbalances that economists say now need to be corrected. Higher Swedish interest rates may bankrupt some borrowers, RBS says. Finland’s borrowing costs are set by the European Central Bank, making it tough for policy makers to steer the domestic economy

...Well, nuts, just raise the tax rate so the government can handle the problem. What's that you say? The rate is already WHAT!

...Oh, never mind...('pologies to Emily L.); August 19, 2010 at 1:21 PM
karen said...: today's topstep: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_mqmZXsSQnE; August 19, 2010 at 1:25 PM
Leftback said...: LB will not touch anything in finance or CRE directly.; August 19, 2010 at 1:27 PM
karen said...: I thot Danny's outlook was rather somber..; August 19, 2010 at 1:30 PM
karen said...: Emerging-Market Hedge Funds See $1.5B In 2Q Outflows
1:30 PM ET 8/19/10 NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Hedge funds that invest in emerging markets recorded net outflows of $1.5 billion during the second quarter of this year, marking the seventh quarter of net redemptions the group has seen in the last eight quarters, an industry research firm said Thursday.

Investors took money most aggressively out of hedge funds focused on Russia and emerging Asia while Latin America- and Middle East-oriented funds continued to attract cash, according to a report by Hedge Fund Research.; August 19, 2010 at 1:33 PM
Leftback said...: If we saw the bottom again today I am sure Mr Market would kiss it....; August 19, 2010 at 1:34 PM
CV said...: McHappy might have already said this... but

1169 is the 50% fib from 1010 - 1129

1056 is a 61.8% retrace (not achieved yet)...; August 19, 2010 at 1:39 PM
CV said...: 1069...sorry; August 19, 2010 at 1:40 PM
Leftback said...: Everyone loves bonds today.

Things that make you go.... hmmm....; August 19, 2010 at 1:40 PM
karen said...: so much going on!

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Transocean Ltd. (RIG) is accusing BP PLC (BP, BP.LN) of withholding valuable information about the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, saying the U.K. oil giant is crippling Transocean's ability to conduct its own investigation into the disaster.

In an Aug. 18 letter to BP America lawyers, Transocean said BP has refused to hand over logs, operational reports and seismic data that will shed light on why and how the Deepwater Horizon rig caught fire and sank, leading to the worst offshore oil spill in U.S. history.

"It appears that BP is withholding evidence in an attempt to prevent any entity other than BP from investigating the cause of the April 20th incident and the resulting spill," Transocean attorney Steven Roberts said in the letter.; August 19, 2010 at 1:42 PM
karen said...: Bloomberg Cities & Debt: Defusing the Municipal Pension BombFont size: A | A | A
1:36 PM ET 8/19/10 | BusinessWire
On the heels of New Jersey's settlement with the Securities and Exchange Commission for masking the underfunding of its two biggest pension plans and misleading investors, Bloomberg examines the pending pension crisis and the impact it has on the fiscal health of U.S. municipalities at the Bloomberg Cities & Debt Briefing.

The full day program, being held on September 15, 2010 at 92YTribeca in New York City, will assess the scope of the municipal fiscal crisis and the pension problem, and look at where the opportunities are for investors in the muni market.

Once considered a safe haven for investors, municipal bonds are now seen as higher risk by investors like Warren Buffett, who told Congress this year that many state and local governments would soon face a "terrible problem" in refinancing their debt loads and that some could eventually need to be bailed out by the federal government. At the same time, the $2.6 trillion U.S. municipal bond market has hit historic lows this year and drawn big time investors like Susquehanna International, investor Wilbur Ross, and bond fund manager Bill Gross.; August 19, 2010 at 1:42 PM
CV said...: Forgot to say...

CV did, in fact, tag 31.39 on TBT... (with a very small position)...

It's good enough now that if things break down and STOP OUT w/o a loss...

I just had to do it... The FIBS were too perfect...; August 19, 2010 at 1:44 PM
Jeremy Siegel said...: I hate bonds.

Although I still love stocks.; August 19, 2010 at 1:48 PM
Leftback said...: Yes, LB is down wit dat... small starter position, stopped of course.
... may add into the close; August 19, 2010 at 1:48 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://lansner.ocregister.com/2010/08/19/home-sale-revenues-fall-by-200-million/77647/

"According to the Southern California Multiple Listing Service:

Broker managed home sales generated just over $1.3 billion in July.
That’s the smallest revenue total for a July in figures dating back to 2005.
Assuming that brokers averaged 6 percent commissions on each sale, July’s deals generated $80 million in commissions, down from $85 million in July 2009. In July 2005, at the height of the housing boom, O.C. brokers and their agents raked in roughly $140 million in commissions."

...Realtors in Orange County therefore have taken about a 50% haircut since 2005. Imagine that...of course, this assumes there are roughly the same number of folks peddling houses....; August 19, 2010 at 1:49 PM
Mr Bond said...: Fuck off Siegel, you jackass.; August 19, 2010 at 1:49 PM
Leftback said...: "Realtors in Orange County therefore have taken about a 50% haircut since 2005"

Pretty soon, realtors in Orange County will be cutting hair....!!! Parasites.; August 19, 2010 at 1:50 PM
karen said...: Bruce.. I think you can forget the 6% commission.. discounting is rampant.. has been for years..; August 19, 2010 at 1:51 PM
CV said...: @LB

I can't say I'm very excited about it at the moment...

"Short Term Reversal"... HOPE; August 19, 2010 at 1:52 PM
arbitrage789 said...: If the Republicans make big gains in November, that would seem to be a bit bearish for muni bonds, since the R's aren't going to let Obama bail out the unions.; August 19, 2010 at 1:53 PM
karen said...: My, you are cheery today.. CV is doing his best to paint a macabre picture.; August 19, 2010 at 1:57 PM
karen said...: I was up for fun earlier but have gone somber..; August 19, 2010 at 1:59 PM
CV said...: @karen

I'm not 100% in the "macabre" mode...

The fact that we've stalled down here just above the 1060 zone is bothersome (on relatively low volume)...

It just seems to be another one of these "tiptoe into support" levels that the BEARS get antsy with...; August 19, 2010 at 2:00 PM
CV said...: 1065 might score as a "minor" win, but it just doesn't seem like the market has the HEART to sell off right now...; August 19, 2010 at 2:02 PM
karen said...: crossing my fingers those are famous last words, CV : )
not that I disagree.. where's the volume!!!???; August 19, 2010 at 2:06 PM
CV said...: i kno right; August 19, 2010 at 2:07 PM
CV said...: still waiting for that 3:55 SURPRISE ANNOUNCEMENT; August 19, 2010 at 2:08 PM
karen said...: BofA, US Bancorp sue to stop foreclosure of massive NYC apartment complex

http://www.reoi.com/news/bofa-us-bancorp-sue-to-stop-foreclosure-of-massive-nyc-apartment-complex; August 19, 2010 at 2:09 PM
karen said...: just skim that article.. what a mess.. it's the deal Ackman is involved in..; August 19, 2010 at 2:12 PM
karen said...: hey, hey.. look at uup.. 23.99.. 24 hod; August 19, 2010 at 2:13 PM
karen said...: zerohedge, Dumbest propaganda statement of the year: CAT sees 2012 revenue of $55-60 BN AS LONG AS RECOVERY CONTINUES; August 19, 2010 at 2:13 PM
karen said...: mrtopstep, RT @Chicagostock $ES_F SP500 2 month chart h/s formation? http://twitpic.com/2g8egd; August 19, 2010 at 2:16 PM
karen said...: interesting! Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- HSBC Holdings Plc, Europe’s biggest bank, should turn over internal reviews of potential fraud and other operational risks at Bernard Madoff’s business from 2006 and 2008, a New York judge ruled.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=atQZN7qSyQTo

also: financialtimes

Huge oil plume found in Gulf: Scientists say they have proved a huge plume of oil is lurking below the surface of ... http://bit.ly/cNQpZ8; August 19, 2010 at 2:19 PM
McFearless said...: volume isn't that bad really, am I getting a bad feed? it's not huge or anything but if this was 1 of 3 then that would make sense, not to mention, it's august, and the trend on volume is still following the same flow, bigger volume on down days light on up days; August 19, 2010 at 2:19 PM

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Morning Audibles 8.19.10

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