TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Audibles 8.18.10

Morning Audibles 8.18.10

Many of you have already seen this, but some of you might have missed this interview of Kyle Bass "telling it like it is" on CNBC...

Sorry it took so long to get that up here, but the code was kind of funky working with BLOGGER (as many things are), but I finally cracked it... As is often the case... "The last P well, that's not that simple"...

So if your computer starts sparking up and catching fire and the internet shuts down you have several options (to be done - in order):

1. Call Michael DELL (for customer service)
2. Blame it on Bush
3. Get Obama to "pay for it" (along with your gas & mortgage)
4. Pull Al Gore off the massage table and have him invent another internet
5. Whiz on over to the Hamptons and attend a party
6. Blog about it upon your return

Got that?

287 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 1 – 200 of 287 Newer› Newest»

CV said...: Early C'MON MAN candidate for next week...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-18/u-s-stock-futures-advance-signaling-market-may-extend-yesterday-s-rally.html

U.S. Stock Futures Rise, Signaling Market May Extend Rally

Excerpt:
"U.S. stock futures rose, indicating benchmark indexes may add to yesterday’s rally."

Really? No, REALLY? Get right out of town! Seriously... Really?

We're so lucky to have the folks at Bloomberg to SYNTHESIZE all these complex market maneuvers...; August 18, 2010 at 9:07 AM
CV said...: Oh wait... and here's the "money line"...

"The S&P 500 climbed 1.2 percent to 1,092.54 yesterday, its biggest gain since Aug. 2, as a report showed... BHP Billiton Ltd. offered to buy Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc."

So an Australian mining company buys a Canadian fertilizer producer and US stocks go up...

Sounds about right to me...; August 18, 2010 at 9:11 AM
Brian the Broker said...: See Johnny? Now THAT's the "fun" I've been telling you about.; August 18, 2010 at 9:12 AM
72bat said...: cv -
obviously bberg has one of those financial journalism apps churning out their copy; August 18, 2010 at 9:16 AM
CV said...: @72

99.99999% of FREE blogs beat the hell out of their paid financial reporters on a daily basis...; August 18, 2010 at 9:17 AM
CV said...: @72

and what might at "app" be?

Financial reporting for DUMMIES?; August 18, 2010 at 9:18 AM
CV said...: Technical Tidbits:

1103 is a 50% re-trace of last weeks MARUBOZU weekly candle (whether it was, or not, "technically" a marubozu... CV is more interested in the SPIRIT of something than what it technically is).

1110 would be a 61.8% re-tracement of the same weekly candle (bottom to top).; August 18, 2010 at 9:20 AM
CV said...: LOL

TWSWB's photo graphic of "periods of when to make money since 1883"

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/GEo-Tritch-cycles.png

Looks like one of those HFT "crop circles"...

So let me get this straight, some geek condenses 127 years of data and order stuffs 50,000 buy programs into a millisecond and lets the computers figure it out...

More "C'MON MAN" material...; August 18, 2010 at 9:26 AM
karen said...: Morning! Funny audible CV! Good that you put that Bass (so delicious) in the forefront, too : )

Today will be less tedious than yesterday, I'm sure.; August 18, 2010 at 9:29 AM
karen said...: Bloomberg has a few good reporters but otherwise it' baloney.; August 18, 2010 at 9:31 AM
karen said...: Berkshire Hathaway & Buffett’s Newest Stock Holdings A to G (BRK-B, BRK-A, AXP, BAC, BDX, KMX, KO, CMCSA, CDCO, COP, COST, XOM, FISV, GCI, GE, GSK, GS)

http://247wallst.com/2010/08/16/berkshire-hathaway-buffetts-newest-stock-holdings-a-to-g-brk-b-brk-a-axp-bac-bdx-kmx-ko-cmcsa-cdco-cop-cost-xom-fisv-gci-ge-gsk-gs/#ixzz0wxqAIGz9; August 18, 2010 at 9:33 AM
72bat said...: cv -
can't find it right off hand, but saw a spoof somewhere yesterday on financial journalism, a template for "explanation" of why markets did what they did, just plug in a value for each variable: "markets went (jumped up/slid down/jiggled sideways) because (terrorism/consumer sentiment/janet jackson) did (something/nothing/anything)..., etc"
i'll keep looking and try to link it.; August 18, 2010 at 9:33 AM
karen said...: Naturally this story is on FOX news:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/08/17/israel-weeks-end-strike-iran-nuclear-facility-bolton-says/; August 18, 2010 at 9:34 AM
karen said...: China Swallows Obama Stimulus Meant for U.S. Economy: Andy Xie

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=awzqAYrLaXZ8; August 18, 2010 at 9:35 AM
AmenRa said...: Futures may have been higher but AUDJPY & EURJPY were lower. Plus futures were only $1 over fair value.; August 18, 2010 at 9:35 AM
CV said...: I'm going to re-post this from ben (last night)...

Might be a decent guide...

---

http://www.pivotfarm.com/pivot-points.php

I think that R1 DeMark weekly and daily would be a crucial area for bulls to break through.; August 18, 2010 at 9:38 AM
72bat said...: k - tks for the andy xie link. he nails it,
e.g., "A more likely scenario is that the West will have to stop stimulus programs when inflation spreads to it from the emerging economies. The most immediate channel is through rising commodity prices. It’s a tax on the West to benefit emerging economies that produce raw materials. That’s the irony: The stimulus in the West can immediately bring harm to itself. It’s also the magic of globalization. "; August 18, 2010 at 9:41 AM
karen said...: mrtopstep - hearing fund seller in gold and silver futures
less than 5 seconds ago via web; August 18, 2010 at 9:42 AM
CV said...: @karen

I wonder if it's a KABOOM sale? :-); August 18, 2010 at 9:43 AM
CV said...: Frankly...

CV's "pivot points" are much different than the ones indicated on that blog, but some of them line up...; August 18, 2010 at 9:45 AM
karen said...: mrtopstep- Dennis Gartman has rec. a new short positon trade in CL this morning...FYI; August 18, 2010 at 9:45 AM
72bat said...: andy xie in short: globalization = converging standards of living. j6p will have a tough time adjusting to downward mobility. reversion to mean after post-ww2 prosperity will be a bitch.; August 18, 2010 at 9:45 AM
CV said...: I might be looking at 1082.61 as first support here...; August 18, 2010 at 9:45 AM
McFearless said...: That's the I-man that turned me on to that pivot-farm site, it's a cool place, lot of good info on there.

this:

"markets went (jumped up/slid down/jiggled sideways) because (terrorism/consumer sentiment/janet jackson) did (something/nothing/anything)"

so easily proven wrong, I'm going to see if I can link up the DOW/Anthrax chart from EWI as I think that's floating around the web free somewhere. I will admit though, when Janet Jackson makes moves...the market listens.; August 18, 2010 at 9:46 AM
McFearless said...: perhaps some of you will find this as amusing as I did, I'm also fairly certain that this guy is in fact a robot, but I'll drive to Philly and try to meet him to confirm for the group:

http://dealbreaker.com/2010/08/rebellion-researchs-computer-named-star-reduced-international-exposure-before-a-lot-of-the-problems-came-about-in-greece/

the claim that they reduced international exposure before a lot of the problems came about in Greece as if this was some sort of great computer insight is on whatever the level above classic comedy is.; August 18, 2010 at 9:47 AM
karen said...: thanks, bat.. i've got the xie link still up but haven't been able to get to it yet.. two more quotes:

Just as water flows down, stimulus affects low-cost economies more, wherever it is initiated. As the West pours money into the global economy through large fiscal deficits or central banks expanding balance sheets, the emerging economies are drowning in excess liquidity. Everything is turning red-hot.

In 2012, the Fed will run out of excuses not to raise interest rates. As the excess liquidity in the global economy will be gigantic by then, the tightening will probably trigger a global crisis as asset bubbles burst.; August 18, 2010 at 9:49 AM
CV said...: @72

reversion bitchez! :-); August 18, 2010 at 9:51 AM
72bat said...: ben -
"so easily proven wrong" was the point of the spoof, that most financial reportage is formulaic and why not just have a software app to churn it out. still looking (have the browser on the orifice pc set to wipe history after each session).; August 18, 2010 at 9:51 AM
CV said...: @McF (9:46)

That's it!

Now... Put that on a flow chart on an easel and I'll invite you to present at my next meeting...; August 18, 2010 at 9:52 AM
72bat said...: k -
sorry, didn't clearly separate, j6p observation is mine, not part of andy's commentary.; August 18, 2010 at 9:53 AM
karen said...: oops, crude broke $74..; August 18, 2010 at 9:54 AM
CV said...: These moves, lately, that reverse back to the chart gaps (but then stop & don't fill) are COMICAL to watch...

to say the least...; August 18, 2010 at 9:54 AM
karen said...: Ben at 9:47! hilarious.. he did a good job of explaining, tho, you must admit!; August 18, 2010 at 9:55 AM
McFearless said...: let me play the news game today, just so I feel part of larger market society:

the market could drop today after yesterday's massive 90% up day caused by Fed POMO (and yes, they caused it around the world!) markets are likely in reflection mood today ahead of tomorrows claims number, if the claims suprise to the upside (either direction is unexpected of course) then there could be a large rally into options expiration. An upside surprise in the Philly Fed or Leading Indicators would be a great sign for the bulls so the tomorrows (backward looking) data is very crucial to the overall health of the market. Barring any outside catalyst stocks should close the week strongly.

see, I can play along.; August 18, 2010 at 9:56 AM
karen said...: bat.. i understood that you were paraphrasing and not plagiarizing : ); August 18, 2010 at 9:57 AM
CV said...: TLT

Wowza!; August 18, 2010 at 9:58 AM
McFearless said...: Karen,

he's come a loooong way on the interview front, you must not have seen his first interview on CNBC, so let me provide that here:

http://www.businessinsider.com/spencer-greenberg-cnbc-2010-7

I guess he had to grow the beard out some.

I can't believe the press these guys are getting, they don't even have $10 million under management yet he's done CNBC and Bloom, I'm over 4x the size of this guy and you havent' seen me on there....course, I'm not a robot....yet.; August 18, 2010 at 10:00 AM
McFearless said...: @72,

yeah, i figured you were mocking with the janet jackson reference (nice one) I just love to trash that stuff because of how wrong it is, any student of the market concludes the same.; August 18, 2010 at 10:01 AM
CV said...: @McF

"markets went (jumped up/slid down/jiggled sideways) because (terrorism/consumer sentiment/janet jackson) did (something/nothing/anything)"

Where's the flow chart to describe ALL ASSET CLASSES bursting at the same time in a huge fireball?

lmao; August 18, 2010 at 10:01 AM
McFearless said...: @72,

this might be a decent counterpoint to the news meme:

http://www.elliottwave.com/club/protected/pdf/market-myths-exposed.pdf; August 18, 2010 at 10:03 AM
karen said...: CV, TLT.. good eye! LOL.. I'm trotting out my "told ya, so!"

yeah, so what's our yield? 2.580 low so far today. we gotta get sub 2.5, i think..; August 18, 2010 at 10:03 AM
CV said...: @McF

nevermind... I found it...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=41lTZaHMTCw&feature=related; August 18, 2010 at 10:03 AM
McFearless said...: I watched the video several more times last night on Bass, we are going to have a huge war again that likely involves the whole world, this would seem the end game to the eventual restructuring, which he states there is no doubt in his mind that it needs to occur, it's the only way out.; August 18, 2010 at 10:06 AM
karen said...: ben.. that one is too painful to watch.. and the newshost, Mark Haines, seems drunk..; August 18, 2010 at 10:08 AM
McFearless said...: "mrtopstep - hearing fund seller in gold and silver futures
less than 5 seconds ago via web"

bear raid!

manipulation!

C'mon Man!; August 18, 2010 at 10:08 AM
karen said...: Ben, pls don't say that.. at 10:06; August 18, 2010 at 10:09 AM
McFearless said...: lol, Karen, I'm glad you clicked, I remember I watched that the day of, it shut off and I said out loud

what the hell was that?; August 18, 2010 at 10:09 AM
karen said...: BreakingNews

NATO-led forces in Afghanistan uncover Taliban prison holding 27 shackled men who 'appeared to have been tortured' http://bit.ly/9yX4ET; August 18, 2010 at 10:10 AM
CV said...: @mcf

Tyler is going to get you for copyright infringement :-); August 18, 2010 at 10:10 AM
karen said...: sorry this was from 12 min ago.. i cannot keep up!

mrtopstep

we are thinking buy the spoos and sell the bonds right here using a 10 tic stops in the bonds and a 3 handle sell stop in the SPUs; August 18, 2010 at 10:10 AM
McFearless said...: my 10:06, I thought all night about it, cause I'm strange like that, it was the best forecast I could think of,...he kept saying "it's going to take time"

I hate it as much as you do, but everyone who lives to see such things feels this way.; August 18, 2010 at 10:11 AM
CV said...: @karen

What? You mean the TALIBAN don't have big screen TV's, and "special meals" like they do for the prisoners at Gitmo?; August 18, 2010 at 10:11 AM
72bat said...: finally was able to watch both kyle bass videos straight thru. articulates well what i believe we all feel to be the case. what we have yet to see/hear, e.g. from hussman, are goldilicks scenarios for how restructuring likely will come about: too cold (too little/too slow), too hot (too much/too fast), just right (the hits allocated "appropriately" among stock holders, bondholders, wage earners, home owners, etc); August 18, 2010 at 10:12 AM
The Republic of France said...: @mcf (10:06)

We surrender!; August 18, 2010 at 10:13 AM
karen said...: TD going off! http://www.zerohedge.com/article/institutions-now-actively-selling-hft-permabid

With the bulk of stock trading (over 70%) now executed by various algorithms, which in turn are programmed by 20 year old math Ph.D. who just happen to know nothing about P/E rations, debt leverage, interest coverage, PEG, balance sheets, and other such relics of an ancient fundamental-ist past, it is no surprise that momentum trading and a nearly 1.00 cross asset correlation is now the norm.; August 18, 2010 at 10:14 AM
McFearless said...: how high is TLT going to go before it has a big downturn?, I think lefty is ultimately right, just too early, that huge bullish sentiment is going to make the outcome there wild the next couple of months.; August 18, 2010 at 10:15 AM
McFearless said...: "it is no surprise that momentum trading and a nearly 1.00 cross asset correlation is now the norm."

I spy one massive whipsaw experience in the very near future for these shops.; August 18, 2010 at 10:19 AM
karen said...: what a lineup!

http://www.valueinvestingcongress.com/landing/n10/partners/marketfolly/8.30.10_banner.php; August 18, 2010 at 10:22 AM
McFearless said...: one more thing about Bass, I wonder how many retailers are going to watch his videos and jump into high yield, he had a big chunk there, but as I'm sure is evident to everyone here, retail doesn't get to play junk like the Kyle Bass' of the world do, not even close. He isn't just holding JNK, iow.; August 18, 2010 at 10:22 AM
CV said...: game of chicken...; August 18, 2010 at 10:23 AM
karen said...: if crude is dropping with all the nuclear warmongering in the news, imagine what the price should really be...; August 18, 2010 at 10:24 AM
72bat said...: k -
buy now or be priced out!
"The price will increase substantially as the event nears. Avoid disappointment - register today!"; August 18, 2010 at 10:25 AM
karen said...: something has gotta give, all right, and it isn't gonna be the bond market, imo. probably solid low rates holding in a range now..; August 18, 2010 at 10:26 AM
McFearless said...: CAT puts providing some decent return today. I may close anyway as i do think there could be further push tomorrow, highly doubtful we close below 1085 this week based on max pain trends. this could be some goofy b wave, or if it is the ii it could always go further here, the other 2's being used on that count did 61.8%'s.

CAT above 70 though, ...it was time to go shopping yesterday afternoon.; August 18, 2010 at 10:28 AM
CV said...: @mcf

I'm looking for support around 1082; August 18, 2010 at 10:30 AM
karen said...: gold is hanging tight.. my little short is barely in the $. got 1k faz yesterday and didn't get filled on second piece.. it's green too

drv is killing me and jnk is torturing me.. it has got to be too good to be true.. it has got to be : ); August 18, 2010 at 10:32 AM
karen said...: crude inventories down.. now i'm curious as to how the price settles since those inventory numbers mean absolutely nothing.; August 18, 2010 at 10:35 AM
McFearless said...: there was so much in that Bass thing so I keep bringing it up....how about the basic calc on GDP calling for 1%.

on another note, who else played with the Mercury retrograde dates? Admit it....; August 18, 2010 at 10:38 AM
karen said...: anyone reading this? http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/08/felix-zulauf-up-close-and-personal-transcript/; August 18, 2010 at 10:39 AM
karen said...: good reading: "Yes, and now, we are at the point where over the last decade, the regulators for the banking industry allowed the banks to reduce their equity capitals step by step, which really was another element creating the boom and the bubble in real estate and other sectors. And now we are here suffering from the fallouts of that bubble bursting…In Europe, it is even worse than in the US. And the problem then comes that the banks have to be bailed out. And bailing out the banks in the system pushed government debts to much higher levels. The question is, what will we do next time when the governments need to be bailed out."; August 18, 2010 at 10:40 AM
McFearless said...: kind of surprised there isn't more buzz about the big H&S, that right shoulder looks pretty good now eh? I figured more people would be charting that at this point.; August 18, 2010 at 10:40 AM
karen said...: LOL! I knew I liked that Felix, "Gold is not a commodity – gold is a currency and it is the only currency without liabilities and cannot be mismanaged by its own central bank….so gold is different."; August 18, 2010 at 10:43 AM
McFearless said...: based on the way we are holding the gap up yesterday I would think it's not very likely that wave ii is over, the third wave down should be too powerful for that crap.; August 18, 2010 at 10:43 AM
CV said...: @mcF

My favorite moment was his response (expression) to Faber's comment at (6:55) in the first video...; August 18, 2010 at 10:46 AM
72bat said...: ben -
re mercury retrograde: passed on astrology back in the dawning of the age of aquarius even though i hung briefly with original cast member sally eaton (jeannie); August 18, 2010 at 10:48 AM
McFearless said...: C,

No doubt man, it must have been hard for him not to laugh more....what happens when growth picks up, what happens when tax receipts pick up.

pipe dreams....; August 18, 2010 at 10:50 AM
CV said...: @mcf

There are really TWO parts to yesterday's "gap up"...

It all happens in the first "one minute" candle...

There's a SMALLER gap at the open, then a huge 1 min. candle, then a smaller gap to the 2ns 1 min. candle...

It all occurs between 1081 and 1084 (that big 1 min candle)...

Therefore, I believe we might "partially" close some of that just to give it the "look" (to some who don't look closely), that the gap is covered...

Just a theory (worth a cup of coffee)...; August 18, 2010 at 10:51 AM
CV said...: anyway... this charts needs one more LOWER LOW today...

might as well be 1082; August 18, 2010 at 10:53 AM
karen said...: big news! Aug. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Stanley Druckenmiller, the hedge- fund icon who boasts one of the best long-term trading records and the distinction of having made $1 billion for George Soros by forcing a devaluation of the British pound in 1992, is closing his firm after 30 years.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aAxqmEZaonhc

Wondering if it is comparable to Julian Robertson closing his Tiger Fund in 2000 just before sh*t hit the fan..; August 18, 2010 at 10:54 AM
karen said...: something to keep in mind: Consolidation Coming to Homebuilders (BZH, MTH, RYL, DHI, KBH, PHM, XHB)

Read more: http://247wallst.com/2010/08/18/consolidation-coming-to-homebuilders-bzh-mth-ryl-dhi-kbh-phm-xhb/; August 18, 2010 at 10:57 AM
McFearless said...: karen,

“While the joy of winning for clients is immense, for me the disappointment of each interim drawdown over the years has taken a cumulative toll that I cannot continue to sustain,”

I hear that. I often wonder how many years I've probably taken off my life with the stress of managing OPM, I can only imagine what a guy like him feels, or I probably can't even imagine. It can really take its toll. I wasn't even exposed to stocks in 2008 and I was in a fairly constant state of anxiety the entire year anyway, when the Primary Reserve Money Market Fund broke the buck ....I don't even like thinking about that.; August 18, 2010 at 11:04 AM
CV said...: @Amen

Lost in all this mayhem from this morning is the fact that we did...

IN FACT

Start with 5 red 1 minute candles...; August 18, 2010 at 11:07 AM
McFearless said...: not sure if he is still running with these, this is a lot more complex than EWI's big count, so a different perspective, still with a similar nasty outcome, just not the wild DOW below 1,000 stuff:

http://yelnick.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c563953ef0120a74d2408970b-popup; August 18, 2010 at 11:11 AM
McFearless said...: meant to link this one too:

http://yelnick.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c563953ef012876502c7a970c-popup; August 18, 2010 at 11:16 AM
CV said...: @McF (11:04)

That's the good thing about fitness...

Even if you SUCK at being a trainer, as long as the people are working out, they're going to be burning calories...

Now - if they want to go home and stuff twinkies and fruit pies into their mouths, that's not your problem...; August 18, 2010 at 11:16 AM
karen said...: mrtopstep

yea - we think the markets act ok 1093 is on tap always use stops; August 18, 2010 at 11:18 AM
karen said...: BreakingNews

Mexican security forces find the body of Santiago Mayor Edelmiro Cavazos near Monterrey, days after he was abducted by drug hitmen - Reuters; August 18, 2010 at 11:18 AM
karen said...: zerohedge New post: Goldman Tells Its "Special" Clients To Sell Gold Even As It Raises Its Price Target On The Shiny Metal http://tinyurl.com/27jnc6y; August 18, 2010 at 11:19 AM
McFearless said...: still thinking with the bigger view from a wave perpective comparison to the Neely stuff here is info to chew on....this tape is driving me mad so I'm not watching it right now, I could slap 50 different counts on the short term, lol:

via Yelnick:

1. Is 1929 the end of wave III from 1784? Prechter has commented that a good case can be made that either 1929 or 1919 represented the end of the wave I, the rise of European Civilization and the first phase of Globalization. It all came tumbling down in WWI, and the wheels came off Globalization after 1929. I have seen analyses where the unit volume of world trade in the early 1900s was not matched until the 1990s, so far we fell. Imagine the days when you could wander the world without passports, use gold-backed Real Bills from the BoE for commerce with ease anywhere, and keep your shoes on when on-boarding a boat. What happened from 1919 to 1949 was a New World Order emerged (after a depression and a terrible world war) with the US in the center. Without belaboring it, the End of Days is not coming under this count.
2. Is 1932 the bottom of wave IV? Elliott himself thought not, and had it going past 1942 in a triangle. He died before the end. Neely ends it in 1949, and Zoran in 1950. They all see a triangle, which would peg 1929 as the end of a wave III and the Depression as a wave IV, but the count afterwards changes significantly: whereas 32w3 is 42-66, 49w3 is 74-00 or 82-00. In his books, Prechter continues to insist that 1932-1937 was a five-wave pattern. Funny that Elliott himself did not see it at the time. (Of course, he was influenced by the failure to come out of the Depression.) The 32-37 rally can count as a double-three, something like the current Hope Rally.
3. Is 1974 the start of the final wave 5 of V? In his books, Prechter has flipped back and forth between that view and choosing 1982. In one of his versions of his Elliott Wave Principle, the modern Bible for this stuff, he had an appendix choosing 1982. He thought the purported wave 1 up from 1974 was hard to count as a "5". (Of course, he would have been influenced by the terrible inflation of the time.) In the Constant-Dollar Dow, 1949 and 1982 are the key dates, not 1932 and 1974.; August 18, 2010 at 11:20 AM
karen said...: this tape is making me sick to my stomach.. really.. it's that or my coffee which was a bit on the thick mud side this morning.; August 18, 2010 at 11:21 AM
karen said...: Stocks Stuck in Seesaw Trade
Wed Aug 18 11:05:00 EDT 2010 | Briefing.com
Stocks have spent the morning chopping along without any clear direction. That has left the major indices to remain in negative territory with modest losses.

Treasuries have been strong, however. Gains are most pronounced at the long end of the yield curve. Specifically, the 5-year Note is up a rather tame four ticks, but the 10-year Note is up a dozen ticks and the 30-year Bond has climbed 40 ticks. Their yields stand at 1.41%, 2.59%, and 3.69%, respectively.; August 18, 2010 at 11:28 AM
McFearless said...: The don't short the POMO has gone mainstream,... it's been mentioned at least once today on every single trading blog I follow on the reg.; August 18, 2010 at 11:30 AM
karen said...: topstep just tweeted this: http://www.thestreet.com/story/783358/why-breadth-matters.html; August 18, 2010 at 11:30 AM
CV said...: Well if that's the case...

Why not go for a DOWN DAY today...

You know - make it a "self fulfilling prophecy"...; August 18, 2010 at 11:31 AM
CV said...: It's probably easier to game STUPIDITY than just about anything else...; August 18, 2010 at 11:33 AM
McFearless said...: More thoughts along the lines of Bass, pulled together from various EWI reports:

Even though Japan's sovereign debt is at one of the highest levels in the developed world (200% of GDP), its bonds are held dear. In contrast, the market requires Greece to pay much higher rates, even though it has a lower debt-to-GDP ratio (115%). Why? It's another display of non-rational, emotion-driven markets, since it's not the actual ability to repay that matters in the near term -- it's the perception of the ability to repay.

You see, the argument is somewhat circular: Japan pays low interest rates, therefore its ability to repay its debt is high. But if Japan had a 10% rate, its massive debt load would likely be too large to carry, and it would join the ranks of Venezuela (which carries about an 80% likelihood of default over the next 10 years). In other words, Japan's low position on the parabola means near-term debt repayment is highly likely, even though its large debt means investors should be wary of exponentially larger problems in the future.; August 18, 2010 at 11:33 AM
karen said...: rolling my eyes.. and really sick now: PIMCO

Gross: The only way to bring housing back & create liquid, financeable mortgage finance going forward is to provide a government guarantee.; August 18, 2010 at 11:34 AM
McFearless said...: Karen,

re: breadth

Richard Russell has been writing about exactly that since late April. also been providing thoughts on the matter from Joe Granville, another old schooler that has pretty much seen most things.; August 18, 2010 at 11:36 AM
karen said...: how about fiscal responsibility?! it would be F*CK*NG IRRESPONSIBLE of the government to backstop lending !!! The government as the new Super SIV?!; August 18, 2010 at 11:37 AM
CV said...: @karen

Gross is bucking for a cabinet position...; August 18, 2010 at 11:39 AM
McFearless said...: yeah, why is he making all these comments, he has an agenda, no doubt about it.

Karen dropping f-bombs?

wooo!; August 18, 2010 at 11:41 AM
McFearless said...: so I guess the three of us are hanging out today.; August 18, 2010 at 11:41 AM
CV said...: What pisses me off about this market is that to get equities to sell of, you need, like 100 technical "bearish divergences"

At the bottom?

Nothing... NADA... Market simply reverses...

BS; August 18, 2010 at 11:43 AM
CV said...: @McF

he's just jealous that GS has their hands all over government...

He want's "in" too...; August 18, 2010 at 11:44 AM
McFearless said...: alright, i gotta roll for a bit, back later.; August 18, 2010 at 11:47 AM
CV said...: The market clearly seems to have a problem with the 1078 - 1088 area...

Go back 10 weeks and all you see are attempts to stay above or below...; August 18, 2010 at 11:52 AM
CV said...: Seems to happen around opex week (the "aboves"); August 18, 2010 at 11:55 AM
karen said...: gld trading in lockstep with spx.. who woulda thunk it?! lol.. assinine market..; August 18, 2010 at 11:57 AM
karen said...: zerohedge -Geithner wondering - how will GM pull off IPO if Dow closes red?; August 18, 2010 at 11:58 AM
AmenRa said...: I'm waiting to see if GM decides to pull its IPO.; August 18, 2010 at 11:59 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: I have now watched the Bass video 4 times. I like the fact that this man is so articulate, and by that I mean that unlike Roubini who sometimes comes back to his central premise over and over in an interview, Bass has managed to tie his central ideas down over and over again in the two videos and approached the debate from multiple directions always reaching the same result. Demographics, sovereign debt, GDP, central bankers, and etc.

Thanks again, Karen. I will review this again today.
....and file it away.; August 18, 2010 at 12:00 PM
CV said...: On GM...

By now, wouldn't that technically be more like an

IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIPO?; August 18, 2010 at 12:03 PM
GM said...: Well at least I'm not Fannie Mae; August 18, 2010 at 12:04 PM
Owebama said...: Well at least I'm not Bush; August 18, 2010 at 12:05 PM
karen said...: zerohedge - Where is Julian Robertson's "Fuck the 2s10s - I am also retiring" letter?; August 18, 2010 at 12:07 PM
CV said...: @karen

This is for you...

http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=7H0K1k54t6A; August 18, 2010 at 12:11 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: "Video crack"...; August 18, 2010 at 12:12 PM
karen said...: i'm speechless!; August 18, 2010 at 12:15 PM
karen said...: Wednesday, August 18th, 2010, 11:14 am
Source: CNBC
US bankruptcy filings have reached the highest level since 2005, government data released on Tuesday show, as the economy slows and the unemployment rate hovers just below double digits.

There were 422,061 bankruptcy filings between April and June, according to the Administrative Office of the US Courts, up 9% from 388,148 in the prior three-month period, and up 11% from 381,073 a year earlier.

http://www.housingwire.com/2010/08/18/us-says-bankruptcies-reach-nearly-5-year-high; August 18, 2010 at 12:21 PM
karen said...: xlf still in downtrend.. xrt attempting to break up..; August 18, 2010 at 12:27 PM
CV said...: Was anyone else aware of this?

http://www.supremecourt.gov/Search.aspx?FileName=/docketfiles/09-6790.htm

Seems KAGAN was the Solicitor General for all the suits against Obama filed with the Supreme Court to show proof of natural born citizenship...

He owed her big time. All of the requests were denied of course. They were never heard...; August 18, 2010 at 12:28 PM
karen said...: alaidi $GLD Quietly Hitting 6 Wk his $1231. Gold in Euros crosses key EUR 960/oz. Expecting $1270 as per Monday's IMT #gold $XAUUSD $FXE $$; August 18, 2010 at 12:29 PM
mcHAPPY said...: Bring on 1116.; August 18, 2010 at 12:30 PM
karen said...: CV, is someone's natural born citizenship even relevant??? not to me.; August 18, 2010 at 12:33 PM
CV said...: @karen

It's a constitutional issue when it comes to POTUS...

Unless you think the "Constitution" is a piece of trash...

I don't...

I'd simply like to see the case SOLVED in court, that's all... What's so hard about that?

Why all the effort to block it?; August 18, 2010 at 12:35 PM
karen said...: CV, I realize that.. the constitution isn't trash but it has been trashed..; August 18, 2010 at 12:36 PM
CV said...: @karen

And YES... as silly as it might seem... It means EVERYTHING...

Why?

Because don't you think an individual would just KNOW if it were true or not...

And if it WERE NOT true, and you lied about it, or HID it because it would be a constitutional obstruction to you being qualified for the highest job...

Doesn't that just about make you a LIAR about everything?

Just asking...

It's a BIG DEAL to me (perhaps not others)...; August 18, 2010 at 12:38 PM
CV said...: There is a difference between "white lies" (like putting lipstick on a pig)...

and FUNDAMENTAL ones...; August 18, 2010 at 12:41 PM
karen said...: CV! the case probably and simply has no merit!; August 18, 2010 at 12:43 PM
karen said...: this is something: zerohedge
SEC Sues New Jersey for fraudulent municipal bond offerings; August 18, 2010 at 12:44 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aPeroTIkB7mQ

Germany Ignores Soros as Exports Boom Comes at Cost

Aug. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Germany may have become too competitive for its own good.

With exports driving the fastest economic growth since reunification, consumers are failing to respond in kind as companies from Siemens AG to Daimler AG hold fast to the wage restraint that’s given them an international edge. The result: Europe’s largest economy, four times more reliant on exports than the U.S., is firing on only one cylinder.

That’s unlikely to change as Germany spearheads a push for European fiscal prudence and ignores calls from investors and the Obama administration to do more to help rebalance the global economy by reviving domestic demand. While Chancellor Angela Merkel’s plan to cut 80 billion euros ($103 billion) of spending helps make government bonds attractive to Pacific Investment Management Co., retail stocks may suffer, and the country’s dependence on exports leaves it vulnerable to a global slowdown.

“Germany has got to work on its domestic demand,” said Andrew Bosomworth, Munich-based head of portfolio management at Pimco, which oversees the world’s largest mutual fund. “Not everybody can export. Somebody has to import.”

....This, in my opinion, is totally off the mark. Totally. "Somebody has to import"...What's that again? As it relates to Germany, as a sovereign country, exporting is just fine thank you...Obviously they could try to stimulate internal demand for imports and then, viola! They could be more like us!

...Wouldn't that be just peachy...; August 18, 2010 at 12:44 PM
karen said...: might be time to short retail.. need to find that etf.. jcg up 3.03% today.. maybe just an oversold bounce..; August 18, 2010 at 12:46 PM
CV said...: There are still plenty of people who "probably & simply" don't believe that...

What if... Back in 2000, they didn't allow for the RECOUNT of all the votes?

Hell... They recounted and people STILL weren't satisfied?

But what if they'd just said...

"Naw - the idea of a recount "probably & simply" has no merit"...

Some things you ought to go through with on principle... And this is NOT frivolous...

It's not like it's going to open up a FLOODGATE of similar litigation...

I mean, how many cases for "proof of CITIZENSHIP to be POTUS do you imagine are waiting around in court dockets"...

Billions I imagine... yeah - better not youch that one because we'll be flooded with similar cases...; August 18, 2010 at 12:48 PM
AmenRa said...: I know this is late but it's still funny: Ben Bernanke's Facebook Page; August 18, 2010 at 12:49 PM
AmenRa said...: Also if the yen continues to increase we may see video of many traders being carried out on stretchers. My .02; August 18, 2010 at 12:49 PM
karen said...: AR.. just watch the $xad.. and ready the stretchers.. : ); August 18, 2010 at 12:51 PM
karen said...: Sit down before reading: PIMCO

McCulley: The central bank has to act unconventionally, ballooning its balance sheet by monetizing assets: government, private, or both.; August 18, 2010 at 1:07 PM
AmenRa said...: Odd. Dollar flat, gold up 0.5%, AUDJPY down 0.75% and the SPX keeps inching higher. I know some carry trades are being blown up somewhere with the yen continuing to increase. Sometimes it's better to sit back and just watch (like a accident in slow motion).; August 18, 2010 at 1:08 PM
karen said...: vix sonar: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RKHM5UqcxYM; August 18, 2010 at 1:09 PM
CV said...: But I'll go ahead and leave the argument alone now because I'm sure that:

- our elected leaders (and their appointees) know what's best for us
- I don't dare QUESTION these authorities
- I'm not even the least bit curious (because of #1 & #2 above)

I'll just shuffle along now and do what I'm told...

I'll heed the advice of another wise judge...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zrpx4NAtsFQ; August 18, 2010 at 1:09 PM
karen said...: i'm buying faz.. can't help it. it's where i wanted it yesterday.; August 18, 2010 at 1:10 PM
McFearless said...: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-18/obama-cites-ohio-family-as-evidence-economy-on-mend-ahead-of-november-vote.html

"President Barack Obama showcased an Ohio family today that he said benefited from his economic policies as he wraps up a cross-country trip pushing the message he will carry into the November Congressional elections."

As I'm to understand it this household, the people there, all hand-picked by the white house.

“We stabilized the economy”

and of course this little gem:

"The poll found 61 percent said the economy has stayed the same or gotten worse under Obama."

Phi-much?; August 18, 2010 at 1:17 PM
mcHAPPY said...: The possibility that the bounce off 1056 is a c wave to wrap up the C of the ABC off May 25. If this was the case we are in iii of c of C with targets in the 1150-1180 range possible

OR

we are in v of c of C with v=i around 1101-1102, v=1.618 i at 1120, v=2.618 i at 1153.

OR

this could very well be a correction in minor 3.

I'm really bored of late.; August 18, 2010 at 1:29 PM
mcHAPPY said...: Regardless, I'm still looking for 1109-1116 as minimum to the upside.; August 18, 2010 at 1:31 PM
72bat said...: from zerohedge
Greek Bonds Slump As Austerity Backfires, Country Enters "Death Spiral", And The Violent End Game Approaches, in a nutshell,
"A loaf of bread is my political party. I want to help my country -- give me work and I'll pay taxes!
"I you take away my family's bread, I'll take you down -- the government needs to know that," Meletis says. "And don't call us anarchists if that happens! We're heads of our families and we're desperate."; August 18, 2010 at 1:33 PM
karen said...: asking that my top come off will get you carded : )

mrtopstop with topnotch! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5fbTJdQNelo; August 18, 2010 at 1:36 PM
McFearless said...: hows the baby McHappy?; August 18, 2010 at 1:39 PM
karen said...: oh yes! the baby! i've been meaning to ask!; August 18, 2010 at 1:40 PM
karen said...: way to go, mexico! BreakingNews
Mexico slaps 5 percent tariff on U.S. ham and pork products in dispute over ban of Mex trucks on U.S. highways; August 18, 2010 at 1:41 PM
mcHAPPY said...: I'd love to be wrong. I absolutely love EW but I'm learning not to discard any count as long as it is probable.; August 18, 2010 at 1:42 PM
McFearless said...: Mchappy,

your 1116 target might be spot on, 1180, I'm not so down with that count.

I think if we get to those R1 DeMark pivot ranges it'll blow out a ton of stops, I'll likely get short right around there if we see it today.; August 18, 2010 at 1:43 PM
karen said...: my friend just dropped off my case of Tarima that he picked up from hi times.. unbelievably inexpensive tempranillo from spain.. : ); August 18, 2010 at 1:45 PM
karen said...: topnotch says everyone waiting for 1104.. cv would say we won't get there then.. yesterday couldn't get past 1100.14.. am i the only one thinking it is turnaround time?

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&id=p38298062762&def=N&listNum=1; August 18, 2010 at 1:48 PM
CV said...: @karen

All I know is that the MO, lately, is when we get to the mid-term wave tops, it tends to hover just below...

Bulls get all geared up for the upside surge... Instead, it craters in the overnight...

At bottoms?

It hits the lows either in the premarket, or within 5 minutes of the open... Then impulses up and never looks back...

It's been that way for 6 weeks now...; August 18, 2010 at 1:55 PM
mcHAPPY said...: Ben

1150-1180 is not something I would 'bet' on either.

Nor the 1101-1102 or 1120 as there would be serious truncation going on there.

1153 would be big time blow off.

1106-1116 is my preferred count. Although coming up just short of 1106 would mess with a lot of people.; August 18, 2010 at 1:56 PM
McFearless said...: thanks for your thoughts McHappy.

you getting any sleep lately? We were wondering how Baby McHappy was doing above.; August 18, 2010 at 1:58 PM
mcHAPPY said...: The baby is aweseome. Thank you for asking. A big part of the reason why I'm not around much. My wife is on maternity leave and I have a job that gives you a lot of time off in the summer so we've been away quite a bit this summer.

She is growing like a weed. I'm 6'7" with tall family members and tall family members in my wife's family too so it is no surprise she is in the 90th percentile for length. For her length to weight she is in the 10th percentile which means she is a stick!

She is eight weeks now. Still really only interested in eating, crapping, and sleeping but she is taking a liking to her basic toys (a lot of fist waving at dangling stuff) and she is starting to give us smiles when you talk like a fool to her.

Long story short: she is great. Greatest experience of my life hands down. Even better than the shrooms, I-man. lol; August 18, 2010 at 2:00 PM
karen said...: $spx under 1100 is weak, tho.. you gotta admit that.
$spx under 100, 50 and 20 ma is even weaker.. you gotta admit that.

okay, let's see with 2 hours to the close. : ); August 18, 2010 at 2:01 PM
McFearless said...: good stuff McHappy; August 18, 2010 at 2:03 PM
karen said...: makes me teary, McHappy.. and happy tears, of course.; August 18, 2010 at 2:05 PM
McFearless said...: the greek bond saga, lol, can't wait to whip out my call from 8/16, but I'll admit, it's an easy one to make.; August 18, 2010 at 2:05 PM
72bat said...: mchappy -
thinking to get short again if we move above the KT, so coming up just short of 1106 works for me.; August 18, 2010 at 2:06 PM
karen said...: PIMCO - Gross: Policymakers should quickly reengineer a refinancing opportunity for all mortgagees current on payments in GSE securitized mortgages.; August 18, 2010 at 2:06 PM
McFearless said...: where is leftback at today?; August 18, 2010 at 2:07 PM
CV said...: kind of "shooting star-ish" on TLT; August 18, 2010 at 2:07 PM
McFearless said...: a refi for people that are actually current, lol, why help the responsible...that's not our style

C'mon man!; August 18, 2010 at 2:08 PM
karen said...: sulking, i suspect.. but not self-loathing : ); August 18, 2010 at 2:08 PM
mcHAPPY said...: I assume everyone is aware that we are at the .5 retracement of 1129-1069. I would imagine we just finished a of C of ii. Looking for a pull back to 1090 and one last surge - or another combination to appear.; August 18, 2010 at 2:09 PM
CV said...: Maybe August PUT options were in abundance and somebody didn't want to pay out...; August 18, 2010 at 2:10 PM
karen said...: and look at tbt candle.. despite that, i'm not touching it.; August 18, 2010 at 2:11 PM
mcHAPPY said...: If 2:09 played out, c=a at 1105 and c=1.618 of a at 1114.; August 18, 2010 at 2:12 PM
karen said...: safter bet is to look at the $tnx and figure out how low yield could really go.. 2.50 if not lower.. really.; August 18, 2010 at 2:13 PM
McFearless said...: Karen,

I wonder, on blogs, if we are only in the early stages of John and Jane buying up the govies. Safe or not it's all about the perception.; August 18, 2010 at 2:15 PM
McFearless said...: think about the faith people put into FDIC or PBGC, consider that with the backdrop of what the perception of government bonds might be during turmoil.; August 18, 2010 at 2:16 PM
karen said...: well, we've come up to 1098-1099 too many times for my comfort.; August 18, 2010 at 2:19 PM
CV said...: @karen

My rough "paper napkin" math tells me around 31.39 would be a 1.618 ABC down on TBT from the June '09 highs...; August 18, 2010 at 2:19 PM
CV said...: @McF (2:15)

"I wonder, on blogs, if we are only in the early stages of John and Jane buying up the govies"

Who's to say that's not the plan?

I mean... It's perfect... The B/D's have been bidding up the prices in these for awhile now (while equities have failed to engineer a selloff)...

Get the govies expensive... CRASH EQUITIES... Have John & Jane come rushing in to take the excess off their books...

At a profit, of course...; August 18, 2010 at 2:23 PM
CV said...: Then the IB's will run in and support equities for awhile...

at a lower price, of course...; August 18, 2010 at 2:24 PM
AmenRa said...: I still want to know what happened between 1:05 & 1:10 est? Huge 5-min candle. Bastids.; August 18, 2010 at 2:29 PM
McFearless said...: if deflation gets even worse, which I suspect it will, we've got a long ways to go before govies are expensive in a true sense....real returns, not nominals.; August 18, 2010 at 2:33 PM
Jennifer said...: CV -- wouldn't this argument support the theory I've seen floating around that the govt would like to raid 401K monies and put that all into treasuries?; August 18, 2010 at 2:35 PM
Greedy Heiress said...: Off topic, sort of...but how many years do the insurance companies have before we have to worry about not getting paid on life insurance?; August 18, 2010 at 2:36 PM
CV said...: Take a look at that TBT chart...

Perfect FIBS all the way...

From the June '09 high...

- 233 days to do an "A" wave retrace, do a 50% "correction" of that retrace, and come back to the WAVE A level (which - coincidentally occurred at the May 6th FLASH CRASH)...

- Since, a collapse below that level, (which has lasted 72 days [half of 144]) and is very near to taking us to 1.618 of wave "A" from the highs...

- If it reverses here, and takes 72 days to complete a REVERSE H&S (back to the FLASH CRASH levels), then, timewise, the move will play out as a .618 FIB of June '09 to FLASH CRASH period...; August 18, 2010 at 2:37 PM
CV said...: @Jen

Sure it would... But simply stated - looks like they won't even have to legislate it...

John & Jane seem to be eager fish...; August 18, 2010 at 2:38 PM
CV said...: All I know, is that I'd really be looking for an impulse wave off of TBT these days...; August 18, 2010 at 2:39 PM
McFearless said...: @Greedy,

how many years?, I've been worried about that for several years already!

you think anyone that bought a policy from AIG was wondering about this in 2008? chances are most of them were.; August 18, 2010 at 2:40 PM
Jennifer said...: I moved my hubby out of AIG mid '08 fwiw.; August 18, 2010 at 2:49 PM
CV said...: @McF

Obamacare = "Don't Get Sick - We'll help you die"

Obamanomics (as applied to life insurance) = "Don't Die - Just Get Sick"

No wait, don't get sick either... Oh nevermind... Just don't get sick or die until I'm out of office...; August 18, 2010 at 2:50 PM
McFearless said...: "John & Jane seem to be eager fish"

I disagree so let me try and articulate:

Getting the retail investor into bonds is way harder than the news is portraying it to be at the moment. Many people respond as follows with regards to a heavy allocation in bonds if this was a new strategy for them:

1. I can't make much in bonds right
2. If the stock market does good aren't bonds going to do bad, and aren't stocks better over the "long run", aren't there any good stocks we can buy
3. and, this happens all the time "aren't bonds risky because (Bush, or Obama) is going to devalue the dollar"

I also approach this from a psychological standpoint, since less than 5% of people ever do any legitimate rational investment;

market instruments aside, lets use the example of the iPod, which was in fact pretty popular when it first came out, but little did most know just how popular it would ultimately get, and quarter after quarter so many were shocked by the sales.

My observation is also that even if people aren't in stocks, they still think they are supposed to be, and that it is somehow their best option. We see people say this on this blog every few weeks, typically right in the middle of the "fed forced me into the market so I could retire someday" comments.

stocks have been at risk of large decline after large decline since 2000 due to the widespread love affair with them, do a lot more people love bonds today than they did in 2000, absolutely, but I'm not sure that love affair matches what is still going on with stocks, and I think the interest in bonds is only going to get deeper as more and more pensions come under threat, especially if the market doesn't go up, it doesn't even need to go down, a flat market will reinforce this.

this is all just opinion of course.; August 18, 2010 at 2:51 PM
Owebama said...: "I'll pay your gas & mortgage - but someone else has to pay your funeral costs"; August 18, 2010 at 2:52 PM
karen said...: "What happens when large hedge funds shut down? They unload their holdings...

Read more: Druckenmiller’s Top Stock Sale Candidates (AKAM, AAPL, CSCO, C, EOG, JPM, MCD, MYL, NFX, WFC) - 24/7 Wall St.

http://247wallst.com/2010/08/18/druckenmillers-top-stock-sale-candidates-akam-aapl-csco-c-eog-jpm-mcd-myl-nfx-wfc/; August 18, 2010 at 2:55 PM
Leftback said...: McFearless (2:07)

I believe you have a dangling preposition.; August 18, 2010 at 2:55 PM
karen said...: i have heart burn..; August 18, 2010 at 2:55 PM
McFearless said...: for an actual measurement on my comments above, consider that DSI hit 98% bulls on bonds just the other day, the all-time was 99% in 2008. At that time though, bonds had outperformed stocks for a very long time already, BR had this chart.

Now consider the sentiment backdrop for stocks during the worst decade of performance in US history. I believe prior to mid 2007 DSI had never shown 90% bulls or it only showed it a few times before that, only 13 months after the 2007-2009 crash DSI on stocks not only got back to +90% bulls, then it stayed there for months!

After the 1987 crash it took several years for bullish sentiment to get back to where it was prior to the crash. Something happened to people in the 90's, they didn't get drunk on stocks, they drank a whole keg, and they are still trying to sober up.; August 18, 2010 at 2:57 PM
karen said...: CV doesn't allow nit picking here : ); August 18, 2010 at 2:57 PM
McFearless said...: oh, and my conclusion...I'm not sure the keg is kicked yet on bonds....but we are starting to get more foam....

:-); August 18, 2010 at 2:58 PM
CV said...: @McF

I'll handle that:

1. I can't make much in bonds right
Answer: a crash in equities will switch that thinking to "return of capital"... The market hasn't "crashed" is a long time... It hasn't even gone down 20% from the April highs yet
2. If the stock market does good aren't bonds going to do bad, and aren't stocks better over the "long run", aren't there any good stocks we can buy
Answer: You're seeing right now that it NON-CORRELATIVE... We see this, they don't... They'll adhere to the logic "stocks up/bonds bad", but if there's a CRASH, they'll reverse that logic... Personally, I could see BOTH stocks going down and bond yields rising for short while here...
3. and, this happens all the time "aren't bonds risky because (Bush, or Obama) is going to devalue the dollar"
Answer: The dollar is due for a bounce here... Within weeks of the dollar rising, they'll forget all about DGDF... It won't help that PM's are retrenching at the same time too; August 18, 2010 at 2:58 PM
Anonymous said...: About this time yesterday, the SPX started dropping... repeat?; August 18, 2010 at 2:58 PM
McFearless said...: just wondering where our resident bond guru is so you can chime in on this madness.; August 18, 2010 at 2:58 PM
McFearless said...: C,

yes, the retail concerns are very easy to respond to, no doubt, I'm just getting more at what is going on upstairs with the net to help frame what I'm saying about bonds. Remember, very few rational trades ever occur in the market.; August 18, 2010 at 3:01 PM

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Morning Audibles 8.18.10

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