A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection
Creditcane™: Somewhere there is a carry trade I should be imploding. Arigato yen.
SPXSpinning top day. Trapped in yesterdays "hair". Midpoint from last Wednesdays candle is still holding. Held the SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Below the trendline (3/6/09-5/25/10) but above the next lower trendline (2/5/10-5/6/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1127.24). QE2infinity.
DXYDoji day. Still below the SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). Almost tested the 50% retrace and SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 80.60).
VIXSpinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still holding below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. Still below the SMA(89) and now the SMA(144). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 22.01).
GOLDBullish short day. Resolved doji higher (again). Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still inching higher. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1215.40).
EURUSDSpinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below 1.2935 (fib .1459) and the 38.2% retrace. Still below the 3x1 Gann. But it's above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3231).
JNKSpinning top day. Not too much "risk on" here. Still above the 61.8% retrace. Still failing to close gap. Back above the SMA(89) and the SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.72).
10YR YIELDBullish short day. Recent gap is resistance (still holding). Held above the 0.0% fibo retrace at 25.72. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 28.22).
AUDJPYBearish long day. Back below the SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Was heading for the 38.2% retrace at 77.8965. Had a change of mind and decided to head for the 23.6% retrace at 75.5696. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 79.1783).
DJ TRANS AVGSpinning top day. Still running away from trendline. Still above the SMA(55) and SMA(144). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 4452.13).
AAPLSpinning top day. Still below the SMA(21), SMA(55) and SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 235.86).
LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT
The Bond Report 8.18.10
Today wasn't very interesting. The curve flattened slightly. Spreads were slightly narrower at the short end and slightly wider at the long end. POMO tomorrow.
Corpies: LQD 0.09%; AGG -0.11%; JNK 0.05%; HYG 0.17%;
Govies: TLT 0.27%; IEI -0.09%; TIP -0.06%
We did nothing. It was what we refer to technically as a shit trading day.
69 comments:
Karen, perhaps, with a drink after the trading day.
http://www.poptower.com/maggie-q-picture-24719.htm
Karen takes aim at one of LB's short positions.
http://www.poptower.com/maggie-q-picture-24792.htm
@Amen
So can I summarize that today was a "bad hair" day?...
@LB
Good comment, this... (other thread)
---
Leftback said...
"..If 5%, 6%, & 7% mortgages are refi’ed to 4%.."
Karen, If that happened, then there would be a lot of Tsy buying to hedge early pay-off risk. That is probably the proximal cause of what we saw last week and this, with the whole parabolic move being amplified by short covering, likely due to the MS 2s10s steepener unwind, which in turn caused the 10s30s flattener to unwind at the same time.
What fun.
August 18, 2010 4:18 PM
@LB
That's an insight that only a bond maestro could conjure...
Who knows if it's the case, but it makes a lot of sense...
@leftback,
this is from the EWI update tonight:
Bond prices are topping now
so you guys are on the same page.....when they are with the right count, look out, nobody is more accurate really, when they aren't,... cold steel might not even do that justice.
stay tuned.
if you look at a chart of silver over the last two years roughly all you can say is
C'mon man, WTF is going on?
Seriously, what the hell kind of chart is that.
@McF
Did you read my post from the other thread>
---
CV said...
Take a look at that TBT chart...
Perfect FIBS all the way...
From the June '09 high...
- 233 days to do an "A" wave retrace, do a 50% "correction" of that retrace, and come back to the WAVE A level (which - coincidentally occurred at the May 6th FLASH CRASH)...
- Since, a collapse below that level, (which has lasted 72 days [half of 144]) and is very near to taking us to 1.618 of wave "A" from the highs...
- If it reverses here, and takes 72 days to complete a REVERSE H&S (back to the FLASH CRASH levels), then, timewise, the move will play out as a .618 FIB of June '09 to FLASH CRASH period...
August 18, 2010 2:37 PM
speaking of melons- previous thread- these are a few varieties I like-
Very Sweet Melons
Even More Sweet Melons
CV
Todays candle (SPX) couldn't escape yesterdays upper shadow.
CV,
Nice work man, I heart the golden ratio.
@ahab,
that second link looks like it was pre surgery for her, which is funny because she is serious in that picture.
@McF
re: SLV
I'm telling you... None of you people are listening to me right now...
The SILVER chart looks stupid because it's MIS-PRICED...
Everyone seems to think that it should move in lockstep with gold versus FIAT and other such things, but it's NOT going to play out like that...
None of you people ever listen to me (and I can prove it)...
- Do any of you have as much as a can of beans stored in your basements?
- propane canisters?
- lumber?
- candles?
- rice?
- water containers & purification?
- modest watt ALT energy (wind vanes/solar panels)?
- peanut butter?
- booze?
Answer: HELL NO
If you DON'T have any of the above, it basically means your name is DL, and that you think that a collapse in bonds & equities (and a subsequent BANKING HOLIDAY), will simply mean that you profit by holding "short" positions in the ETF's for these equities during the panic, and casually mosey on up to the tellers window at the precise moment in the heat of battle to collect your winnings...
Others... (such as CV), don't think of this as such an orderly process...
However, when MARKETS collapse, there will still be the need to transact... In fact, it will be more important than EVER...
Now what's going to happen in this...
On the FIRST collapse, (the one we're staring in the face as we speak)... Your $100 bills will do you just fine... All the ZERO HEDGERS in the world will be tearing their hair out wondering why GOLD prices are plummeting (like 2008)...
The, we get through it...
Eventually though, the dollar WILL get trashed...
And much like there will be a NEED to transact (as in, with $100 bills this time around)... the NEXT time, that paper currency won't get very far...
You'll need something to transact with...
- something small
- something EASY to parcel in increments
- something that is UNDERSTOOD
In many cases... booze, cigarettes, food packets, lighters, & things like that will be easy to barter with... But the "currency" is going to become SILVER...
Silver COINS...
And the only real (relatively abundant) source for that will be all "pre-1965" US coins (dimes, quarters, half dollars, dollars) which are all 90% silver and 10% copper...
Or, if you prefer, just start buying those AIRPLANE SIZED bottles of whiskey... They ought to hold the same value...
GOLD is 66x the price of SILVER right now... Go study that as a historical norm... And even if you don't like the result... Understand that this time it JUST MIGHT be a little different...
And FORGET ABOUT whether or not another pair of HUNT BROTHERS decide to get their groove on...
@ahab
melons bitchez!
CV-
she is definitely checking out those melons in the 2nd picture-
first picture- I find her to have the perfect melons-
and to follow up on b22's observation that those who are at 7% interest rates would have already refinanced-
true- only if they could qualify- many people can't qualify- credit or income has gone south-
so . . .the idea is . . .as long as someone is paying their mortgage on time-
automatic refinance to current market rates regardless of quality of the borrower-
way more difficult to do than folks may think
b22-
pre-surgery?
that's funny
@McF
Understand that when I say SILVER COINS, I don't mean that everyone is going to be running around with 1927 MERCURY DIMES...
What I DO mean is that certificates will be issued that are "BACKED" by something that people have faith in...
I'd nominate SILVER before GOLD because, temporarily, it will be easier to parcel out in small denominations...
I'm only speaking TEMPORARY ARBITRAGE here...
cv -
you still around tonight?
re. morning audibles - what did you have to do to get that Kyle Bass video to embed in blogger?
grazie...
not to get all political and shit (well maybe) but I think Obama is constantly interjecting himself where it would be best to step back-
The Islamic community center/mosque in NYC- he just had to wade in with (what he thinks) is his incredible charisma to sway the crowds-
reality- American's know Islamic groups have the right to build-
but what the Islamic groups should do is step back themselves-
and respect that American's find it disrespectful to the American's who died there-
they could win fans that way- instead of jamming a stick in New Yorker's eyes
@wes
I was able to COPY the embed code (and the code itself worked, no problem)...
For some reason though, the BLOGGER html function didn't add the "closing" tag to it...
iow - ... Which I had to manually type in once I read the code and figured out the error...
In any case - if you're thinking about using it for the other blog, I wouldn't waste your time... I was scanning thru the comment section there today and it seems that Thor thinks Kyle Bass is FOS...
So maybe a nice post about poodle anger management would do nicely...
So maybe a nice post about poodle anger management would do nicely...
"poodle anger management" is a Master's degree level program offered at ITT institute-
c'mon man!
cv-
no, not the other blog...my personal weblog...
so, would appreciate it if you could tell me how to add the "closing" tag...it would be appreciated...
...molte grazie
@ahab
Since when are any Islamic groups interested in being respectful about anything...
Look - I'm not even trying to be political or religious here...
Instead - I'm being a mathematician...
- In most of western Europe, many countries have negative population growth (yet the Islamic "sub-communities" within those TOLERANT democracies are GROWING in population)...
- It's STEALTHILY happening here in the US as well... Did you read about the Detroit High School which is holding its practices now at midnight because most of the players on the team have to respect RAMADAN?...
- It'll just get larger and larger as time goes by (because it's a MISSION)... Soon, the Islamic population (based on simple BREEDING) will become the majority in the United States...
Frankly - I could not really care one way or another...
Why?
I believe in GOD & I think GOD is GOD... I don't care whether I call him/her GOD, or Allah...
It's the WOMEN that should be frightened... I'm not all about repressing or mis-treating women, but Islamic culture certainly doesn't seem to have a problem with it...
As for Obama?
He's either a MUSLIM, or a BIG MUSLIM SYMPATHIZER... (Note that FLOTUS never accompanies him on "official business" state visits to SHIA LAW countries)...
Americans are so GODDAMN stupid... They let all this stuff just flitter by (when it's INCONVENIENT to think about)...
But really? I don't care if he's a MUSLIM or not...
Women should though... So should MEN for that matter because within 50 years, all their daughters will be wearing "burkas"...
Don't believe me?
I don't care, I'll be dead by then (and I don't have a daughter)...
@wes
@wes
It's impossible to post that closing tag on the blog because if I do, then BLOGGER reads it as an HTML tag and it doesn't show up (like my 8:52)...
Do this...
Give me your e-mail (or a dummy e-mail that you can retrieve)... & I'll paste the exact code you'll need to display the two clips...
OK?
@wes
I was just LUCKY because in my last several years in Italy, I ran a website for our fitness gigs and learned a lot about HTML code from our "in-house" GEEKS...
So when I went through the problems that you're experiencing now, I was able to read the code line by line and figure out what the error was...
Since when are any Islamic groups interested in being respectful about anything...
no doubt-
It's interesting that women aren't up in arms about all Muslim groups in this country
@ahab
All I see when I drive around town are bumper stickers that say...
WOMEN FOR OBAMA
Why don't they just put on stickers that say...
I'M LOOKING FORWARD TO THE DAY THAT I'M TREATED AS 2ND CLASS & FORCED TO WEAR A BURKA...
In a 50 year timeframe...
Disregard that last statement at your own peril...
OR
If you happen to be ANTI (the Islamic regard towards women)...
Start having as many babies as possible...
CV is no PROPHET... This is only applied MATH...
@ahab
Friggin' RACHEL MADDOW (lol)...
OK, let's see... a "lesbian" who supports a POTUS who is, it would be hard to say, a STAUNCH AGGRESSOR vs. SHIA LAW...
How fucking dumb is she?
I can't wait to see Rachel doing her show in a burka...
"true- only if they could qualify- many people can't qualify- credit or income has gone south"
of course that is the case now, my point was that credit was easier than ever to access at extremely low rates over the last 7-8 years, I was wondering if there was a way to look up how many people that hold mortgages with a rate above 7%, and specifically people that are actually on time above 7%. how many could that possibly be that are on time above 7%? Is that a pool so big its worth creating more credit to allow them to refinance? I would guess not but maybe there is a way to look it up.
I can't wait to see Rachel doing her show in a burka...
laugh the fuck out loud
VERY IMPORTANT NOTE
All you people reading these comments BY ME this evening, I hope you get the point...
My point IS NOT:
I'm a racist/sexist/religious zealot
I could really friggin' care less...
Instead,
I'm a MATHEMATICIAN... I see what's happening, and I calculate the odds "mathematically"...
In my book... 2+2=4... It might be that somebody's delicate preference might be that 2+2=3 (or some other number), but unfortunately that's not the way mathematics works...
So call me whatever you want... Then, the day that you discover that 2+2 DOES NOT = 3, then call me and I'll help you to find how to get your confused ass onto number 4...
@whatever you want,
C'mon man
@McF
I keep going over that KYLE BASS video over & over & over again...
It's loaded with gems...
- gems of expression (facial)
- literary gems
- insight gems
I've keyed on a new phrase...
PAVLOVIAN WARMTH
That pretty much synthesizes ANYTHING I've said here tonight
- market wise
- religious wise
- sex wise
- policy wise
Stay in your warm bubbles people... It's nice and cozy there...
b22-
I am certain there are many paying on time that are above 7%-
it's called inertia
dude- not everyone thinks like you and I do
BTW
I apologize to anyone this evening if I come across as NEGATIVE...
Quite contrary - my "mood" is fine...
I'm just HOUSEKEEPING... Tying up "loose ends" on issues that there was never the right moment to properly EXPRESS before...
It's LIBERATING, in fact... (one should try it sometime)...
The good thing about MATH is... Whenever you return to it, it's always the same :-)
ahab,
you would know better than me given what you do, I never stop getting amazed by the GIB, 7% rate and paying on time, I would assume then a fixed rate in most cases, all these years have gone by and no refi? Refi's don't always make sense of course but I just wouldn't expect that to be a lot of people.
b22-
fwiw- I hate doing refinances (although I do at every opportunity)- but-
the issue always come down to one thing- the payment-
payment justification-
they (the borrowers) don't consider all the closing costs that are rolled in-
so why should one refinance- and increase their balance?
only if they are going to be in the house long enough to compensate for the principal increase-
but- zero thought is ever put into that-
if the loan balance goes up-
well- the less you will receive at closing once you sell-
folks never seem to catch on
ahab,
we run into people all the time that have been doing a refi every few years to "save money", funny how the mortgage balance never really gets reduced, sometimes its funny to hear the justifications..."well, I....never pay points"
@norman
got it...
@norman
check your e-mail...
THEN - I'm going to delete your post...
CV
@ahab
"folks never seem to catch on"
My comment?
folks never seem to catch on
folks never seem to catch on
folks never seem to catch on
folks never seem to catch on
folks never seem to catch on
folks never seem to catch on
oodles of poodles... can be very distracting
Back from the wife's birthday party...perhaps one too many margaritas...
I will, however, take the over on tomorrow's UE.
'Night
CV @ 9:13
Following is a quote attributed to Karl Marx:
“Anyone who knows anything of history knows that great social changes are impossible without feminine upheaval. Social progress can be measured exactly by the social position of the fair sex, the ugly ones included”
http://quotes4all.net/quotes/search.html?query=karl+marx
(Don’t know why he felt the need to mention “the ugly ones”)
@DL
I'm not one to just sit back and accept a KARL MARX pluralism as evidentiary...
But I'll attempt to endure that one at face value...
And if so...
The "fairer sex", in this country, based on the propagation of probable exponential mathematics...
Ought to be a little frightened in this moment, get their faces away from staring into the mirror of their iPHONE/Android/whatever, and start doing some UPHEAVING of their own...
Otherwise... UGLY or not, their personna might not be that important under a burka...
Just saying... But call me a lunatic... because CERTAINLY I am...
Lunatic?
No way.
It's like me saying (for the past 30 years)...
"No... don't eat that TWINKIE, or PINT OF HAAGEN DAZS"... It'll make your butt look big...
Do they listen to me? (or explain this to their daughters)?
Walk around the mall & you'll get your answer...
@DL
When 14 year old butts look like 35 year old butts...
HOUSTON - We have a problem...
b22-
an example- my ex-wife's friend called me to refinance her home because she learned that I financed my ex-wife's new home in January at 4.875%-
my ex-wife friend's rate was at 5.75% -
so I blew her off-
but she dogged me- in the end I refinanced her in June @ 4.75%- closing costs rolled in of course-
so- was it worth it? For a payment buyer it was- and even more- she was fixated on any rate below 5%-
so in her mind- she made out-
I just throw up the white flag on that
D*mn blogspot ate my post.. one of my best ever, too! I was commenting on CV's 8:07 (I think it was..) but also hoped Bruce's baby had a lovely birthday.
CV, this butt thing is a serious problem (of yours) in my mind. what exactly did you mean by this? "When 14 year old butts look like 35 year old butts..."
Hello peeps. I missed you all.
Metals look like they were crazy today, I just read this, another good reason not to buy gold intraday:
The Failure of the Second London Gold Pool
@CV 8:07
Have generator, gasoline, water well, not many cans, plenty rice :)
@karen (11:55)
Simple answer to a simple question...
Do YOU think 14 year old butts should look like 35 year old butts?
YES or NO would be fine...
@Nic
It's easier & prolly more efficient to hang onto propane...
Just in case... Just saying...
An excellent, but very long and involved few posts on Mortgages and F & F. The comment from LB on the buying of the long end brought it back to mind.
http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2009/08/modelling-fannie-mae-and-freddie-mac.html
http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2009/08/modelling-fannie-mae-and-freddie-mac_12.html
http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2009/08/modelling-fannie-mae-and-freddie-mac_14.html
http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2009/08/modelling-fannie-mae-and-freddie-mac_15.html
http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2009/08/modelling-fannie-mae-and-freddie-mac_18.html
The way I understand it is that Prepayment risk comes right after credit risk when looking at mortgages. Interest rate risk is the one other piece of the puzzle.
F&F are not as simple as they appear, and about twice as crooked. Wall St. wants F&F to have to hedge their interest rate risk, and make wall st tons of money in the process. The original point of F&F, in my mind was to make interest rate hedging unnecessary. As originally designed, it worked.
Wall st, and congress are trying to fix the one problem that F&F don't have.
NIc! have missed you!! are you feeling better? I'll check your link to gold..
CV, maybe I am getting you drift..but 14 year olds can't help how cute they are.. I mean, if they are not overly mature and trying to be cute.
@karen
...and before you GO OFF discrediting my (8:07)...
read (8:17)
Cv is talking about "arbitrage" here... Nothing else...
Use the HUNT BROTHERS as a reference (if you will)...
In the early 80's, when the HUNT BROTHERS tried to corner the market on silver, the price went to 16-1 vs. gold (800-50)...
Right now it's 1200-18 (67-1)...
I'm sure NOTHING CRAZY will EVER happen again...
In fact... I'm sure it'll be just be the OPPOSITE...
It's SURELY more likely that the "dollar arbitrage" on gold vs. silver will expand 5x (to $6,000 GOLD - $18 silver)...
Than it will collapse 5x to a 13x ratio (say $104 gold and $8 silver)...
Bottom line?
If you believe a HUNT BROS scenario still may be in the cards... (or "something" along those lines)...
Then - $1000 gold = $62 silver...
Either way, that's a 20% haircut on gold (from todays prices)... and a 350% rise in silver prices...
But of course... as always... I'm a lunatic...
I know nothing about butts or silver... (or POODLES for that matter - lucky thing is though - I make no half baked comments about poodles into the blogosphere EXCEPT TO ADMIT THAT I KNOW NOTHING ABOUT THEM)...
Nic.. the article got my attention because I'm familiar with the originnal London Gold Pool from Ferdinand Lips', "The Gold Wars" , of which I have a copy.. now I see that is precisely where the piece is headed.
Well, I can't read it tonight.. besides it is written by Adrian! for heaven's sake. I have to go to bed!
CV.. I wasn't discrediting your 8:07!!! I was explaining that I dont eat PB.. have a store of tuna, olive oil, beans and rice! LOL
can't store booze or I'd drink it all NOW.. i do have bags of starbucks but what good is it w/o half and half??
i have a space for a generator that doesn't exit, yet.. and I presume I'll be dead before I need it ; )
finally, i asked you to e-me your address so I'd be set.. but I bet I could find you on-line if I set my mind to it!
All's fair in love and war..
CV, I'm still too confused about the bottoms.. i live in so cal.. 50 year olds have better bottoms than 14 year olds here..
@karen
- I'm 80% sure it'll never get that bad...
- I'm 100% sure that I live with 0% worry if, in fact, the 20% (on the other side of that 80%) should occur...
- I'm 80% confident that, regardless... My silver vs. gold ARBITRAGE idea will eventually occur... In some weird circumstance...
- I'm 50% sure that the WEIRD silver prices you see right now are the result of the confusion and contemplation of the aforementioned...
@karen (12:46)
Alas...
Don't worry about it...
Let LB concentrate on the bottoms... YOU concentrate on the TOPS...
I'm thinking YOUR TOP might finally hold this time (within a few points here and there)...
Cold Steel my ass! (oops - that's a BOTTOM reference)...
I gotta go to bed (now)...
Doug Kass (think it's really him) on BR's bond bubble thread:
" I view the great bull market in bonds to be approaching a speculative blow-off, and I am increasingly of the view that shorting the U.S. bond market will be the trade of the decade."
Well, I suppose he should hope so now. I believe his first trade in TBT was at 36.50 and he's added all the way down, even if he's been able to get his basis down he'll need a big move and he'll need it quickly considering the beta slippage you get with these ultra etf's. Someone(s) made some significant bets on TBT in the options pits on the $33 Sept Calls.
UE: 500K!
Steve McQueen in the Reivers:
"Sometimes you gotta say good-bye to the things you know, and Hello! to the things you don't"
b in t- this:
"Weekly Jobless Claims Post Surprise Jump"
I mean really- why is everything a surprise- what planet are these people living on?
b22-
you think that was Doug Kass? I wonder- people are parking in treasuries out of uncertainty- not to get rich-
what would be the impetus for folks to rush out of treasuries in a deflationary environment where 2% is a decent return- real rates being higher
NEW THREAD
WEDNESDAY, 28 APRIL 2010 22:00
"Vice President Joe Biden predicted job growth of 250,000 to 500,000 jobs a month in the next two months, according to CNBC on Monday. Biden was speaking at a political fundraiser in Pittsburgh, where he said, “We caught a lot of bad breaks on the way down. We’re going to catch a few good breaks because of good planning on the way up.... All in all, we’re going to be creating somewhere between 100,000 and 200,000 jobs next month.” Even though some have cautioned Biden about his excessive and premature enthusiasm, Biden continued: “I’m here to tell you some time in the next couple of months we’re going to be creating between 250,000 jobs a month and 500,000 jobs a month.”
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