For now, I'm going to go with the procedure of ADDING ON to Andy T's SUNDAY EVENING POST (as the feature for Monday Morning Audibles)... The idea for doing this is basically to keep the comment section (from Sunday Night) running and in tact... If anyone has any objections to this, please voice them... Otherwise, we'll go with it...
Here, I'll only add the CALENDAR to start planning your trades next week... You know, the stuff that the human pez dispensers on TV will use to tell you WHY the market moved one way or another...
PREZ DISPENSER IN CHIEF
Monday, July 19th
- TI
- a bunch of regional banks
*Housing Market Index (10:00AM)
Tuesday, July 20th
- The Squid
- Illinois Tool
- Peabody Energy
- Blackstone
- Yahoo
- VMWare
*Housing Starts (8:30AM)
*Redbook (8:55AM)
Wednesday, July 21st
- Baidu
- EBay
- Freeport McMoran
- MS
- Starbucks
- Coca Cola
*MBA Purchase Applications (7:00AM)
*Bernocchio flaps his gums (10:00AM)
Thursday, July 22nd
- MMM
- Amazon
- AMEX
- AT&T
- CAT
- UPS
- UNP
- CAKE
- various pharma
*Jobless Claims (8:30AM)
*More gum flapping by Bernocchio (9:30AM)
*Existing Home Sales (10:00)
*Leading Indicators (10:00AM)
*calendar of 3/6/52 bill & 2/5/7 note announcement
*Fed Balance Sheet (4:30PM)
*Money Supply (4:30PM)
*Lack Thereof (4:30:00.01)
*QE2 - to follow
Friday July 23rd
- Ford
- Honeywell
- Johnson Controls
- Kimberly - Clark
- Schlumberger
- Verizon
---Andy T (from Sunday Night)---
Good Evening Capitalists,
What a week! Goldman Sachs resolves their SEC issues and BP stops their oil leak. The market responds to all this by going unidirectionally lower on Friday.
The rally in the S&P 500 from the July 1st low looks strong and sharp enough that it should be considered only an "initial" wave higher. Because of this, the 1040 level should hold as near term support. If that zone can trigger a reversal, then it opens the door for one more decent rally in the broader market--maybe the last chance to sell 'em.
The DXY achieved the downside targets we had in mind last weekend, but it does not yet look like a completed pattern down. While still bullish longer term, the DXY seems to have at least several more days of choppy/corrective action lower before it completes the wave lower.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A random musing...
It was more than a month ago that Matt Simmons, Chairman Emeritus of Simmons and Company, was on Fast Money exclaiming that BP "would not last the summer." The next day, BP stock traded as low as $29/share. A quick sampling of YouTube videos (search: Matt Simmons BP) will yield plenty of video with this fellow issuing Apocalyptic prophecies on the matter. Perhaps they will still all come true, but for now this guy looks like a crackpot.
His "claim to fame" was pounding the table on "Peak Oil" theories, issuing Apocalyptic prophecies about the "end of oil supplies" and the end of civilization as we know it. It's probably worth noting at this time that Matt Simmons is NOT a Geologist or Petroleum Engineer of any kind. His background is in accounting and finance. He began is career raising money for oil exploration companies.
The fact that he can show up on CNBC, MSNBC, Fox, etc, etc and issue broad-based proclamations in regard to Petroleum engineering and geophysical matters is astounding. The folks giving him publicity and airtime should be ashamed.
Note to self: Whenever Matt Simmons shows up on TV during a period of extreme panic related to oil, FADE HIS ASS.
179 comments:
Great report AT thank you :)
Bloody murder.
I've sent in 2 replies and not shown up. I give up.
Bottom line: Andy thank you. I enjoy Sunday evenings for this very reason. Your work is in very much stark contrast to EWI. A break of 1100 would most definitely rule their count out. This week will be very interesting. A break of 1100 would almost surely eliminate the moves off 1219 as impulsive, no?
rereading Hussman:
"If our only response to excess consumption is to pull out all the stops trying to "stimulate" consumption every time it falters; if our only response to reckless lending is to defend the bondholders every time their poor allocation of capital threatens to produce a loss for them, then quite simply, we will destroy our economy, our future, and our standard of living. The last thing I want to be is a cheerleader for the bears here. But quite honestly, it's difficult to envision a return to long-term saving, productive investment, and thoughtful allocation of capital until - as happens every two or three decades - the speculative elements of Wall Street are crushed to powder."
also:
"For a moment, at least, it is good to be a corporate insider, particularly at major financial companies. First, you get to report productivity gains and "operating profits" - not by making smart investments in productive assets, but instead by writing up debt thanks to Treasury intervention, by misstating your balance sheet thanks to FASB changes last year, and at industrial firms, by cutting the number of workers per unit of capital. Next, you quietly write off large losses on bad investments and unrecoverable loans as "extraordinary expenses," to which investors pay no notice. And to add insult to injury, you deliver a significant portion of the remaining profits to yourself as "incentive compensation," followed by buybacks of stock to offset the dilution, which investors actually cheer because they don't realize they've been taken for suckers."
John Mauldin - The Debt Supercycle - at ritholtz.com
"Italy has a lot of places to cut(spending). As an example there are 629,000 official cars, some of them high-priced MASERATIS that ferry government officials around..They could cut those and save 15 billion".
Why cut Maseratis, just cut old age pensions. Way to go Italy...live large. Entitlements.
@McHappy.
Thanks. FWIW, I don't subscribe to EWI, so don't really know what their counts are. Some of the stuff I see on "free sites" gives me ideas about what EWI are probably doing, but not a subscriber myself.
Great work as always, AT... thanks for sharing.
I-Man is feeling more of a straight up, plain vanilla continuation of the downtrend... no more tooling around.
Would like to see a (real) summer swoon down to the 920s to flush out longs. Then set up a lower high into late September... sell off again in late fall, and put in a weak rally to end the year.
It could play out just like that, imo.
Andy,
The fact you don't subscribe nor follow closely is refreshing for me. Thus far the shorter-intermediate term counts have been leading to the same place between yourself and EWI - it is the longer term counts that differ. We are approaching a critical time in terms of the probabilities of counts.
As for 1040 - I expect that to serve as a bounce. What happens after the bounce is the question. Although if we rip through 1040 we might as well say hello 850-900.
Dream on, there will be no swoon. Our earnings will smash it out of the park on Tuesday.
Nothing will disturb my vacation ...
I hope everyone had a good weekend.
Short term, I think vix expiration wednesday rules.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/07/14/285751/is-something-really-scary-coming-in-october/
That piece details how much money is being bet on a higher vix. Max pain would mean a lower vix.
Most months VIX option expiration is before equity and index option expiration. This is one the the months where vix expires after equity and index options. October is another month where this will happen.
Just something to think about.
Matt Simmons a
crackpot? http://www.businessinsider.com/oh-no-tests-confirm-oil-seep-distance-away-from-deepwater-wel-2010-7
Triffy: BP seems to be in business still. They're not out of business. Most of Matt Simmons calls were for BP to be out of business in short order. Also, Mr. Simmons' calls were for us to be on the declining slope of oil output a few years ago.
All of his most sensationalistic calls cannot be verified or have come to be seen as false in the last few years. There are many bona fide geologists that have raised the spectre of oil seapage below the surface since the very beginning.
This guy is no geologist and he's not a petroleum engineer. He just knows whatever he's being told "second hand" and he's selecting the bits he wants to hear.
Bit of a rally tomorrow.
AndyT check this posting.http://www.businessinsider.com/oh-no-tests-confirm-oil-seep-distance-away-from-deepwater-wel-2010-7
@Triffy.
I did. And, then I wrote what I wrote at 10.46.
AndyT...I am no defender of Matt Simmons.I just thought this was interesting. The jury is still out. We will know soon enough.
Standard operating procedure for any spill anywhere is to forget quickly how much of the stuff you had, and find anyone else with the same stuff near where the spill happened to blame it on.
It's very difficult to prove in court what happens deep below the ground, or deep within the ocean. You can't see much, and it's really expensive to monitor anything like that over a large area.
The stories that are circulating now about old uncapped and deteriorating wells in the GOM all benefit BP.
@Triffy.
Tru dat.
CV,
There seems to be a lot of gum flapping this week!
Best news story of the day:
"Euro shrugs off downgrade as euro rises vs. dollar"
Actually we have a late entry for headline of the day:
"Futures rise; ignore Europe debt worries"
Fat report cards for students in Massachusetts.
"Important metrics of economic activity are slowing rapidly." ...Hussman.
@BinT
I bet they all got "A"'s in text messaging...
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/07/five-reasons-for-nonsensical-forward.html
So the banks are allowed to write down debts and write up 'assets'..... in the long run, what could possibly go wrong?
lol
mcHAPPY, so banks can use mark-to-market to write themselves down but can use mark-to-model to value the worthless shit** on their books. Nice...
** Does anyone else tire of reading the word "assets" when it comes to the "stuff" sitting on banks' balance sheets? "Assets" seems misleading.
@wunascon
Exactly. Glad you picked up on the 'assets'.
Is that like Elin being an "asset" on Tigers balance sheet?
GOLD is looking a little "squirreley" this morning...
what up all, had a busy weekend mostly being part of the GIB, it's amazing when you go out to parties how contradictory people are when it comes to personal finances.
This week:
1. Dollar entry? Nothing doing last week, still thinking it has further to fall but, of course, monkeys pick bottoms.....
2. Only able to skim the update so far, but I agree with AT, the power of the move up off the lows and the form of the count would lead me to believe we still have a thrust higher to go, how high it can go I don't know but I'm thinking at this piont I may not add to any shorts until we get some momentum to the downside again....I still stick with the idea we see 800's on the S&P before the end of the year.
3. McHappy, sorry I'm late on this, I saw your count, it's valid, but I'm still worried we aren't going with the best count by trying to make this move down impulsive...the further we've gone along the more it looks like a larger corrective, but I'm open to your count.
4. The idea of a gold short is interesting here, but I don't have the stones for it. I think in the next three years we are going to see John Paulsen was a fluke...I'll leave it at that.
5. My best to both Karen and Nic.
@wunsacon,
I'm with you on that one, I don't remember the exact % off the top of my head but I know in the 50's that real estate could have gone down by something like 75-80% in value across the board and banks would have still generally been entirely solvent.
They got rid of their "assets" a long long time ago....it's all credit, that's all there is everywhere.
Morning team, just catching up... be back in a few with some tape observations.
front line thoughts related to socionomics:
http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2010/07/contagious-emotions/#more-23955
also just throwing this out there, the options on aapl could be interesting....look how expensive some of the call options are.
The bottom line here is if the market doesn't trade down and re-test 1040... or does (and holds)...
That's going to sway some technicians to the 'bullish' side...
NAHB couldn't lie as their index drops to 14 and the previous month was revised lower.
"Home Builder Sentiment Falls 2 Points in June to Lowest Level Since April of 2009 (story developing)"
Gee whiz... who could have seen that coming???
I can always find a new way to lie... Sometimes though, I just need more time...
After all of the excitement NYSE TICKS never made a new high after the open even though the market continued to move higher. BUT it did make new lows as the market dropped.
Dear NAHB:
Talk to me after lumber has rebounded. Until then...
NAHB Confidence WTE? Unexpected?
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/07/nahb-builder-confidence-falls-to-lowest.html
morning all.. been here but didn't know what to say for a change.. drv hit 37 on friday.. i held and hope it goes higher, obviously.. i still think spy needs to tap 106 before more upside.. but really, we are in no support zone right now..
@Amen
CV thinks that we'll at least go down and test something nearer to 1040 (possibly 1044 will be the mark)...
After all, if they're going to be wanting to call 1010 as "the bottom" for 1010 (a notion I seriously doubt)... Something close to 1040 ought to be where the gauntlet is thrown down...
That said, I wouldn't be surprised to see that level hold, & a big rally ensue off of that (before the final rollover later this quarter)...
It's probably time to start looking at VIX Bollingers and things of that nature...
@karen
SPY spent most of friday afternoon under 106
Karen
Buenos dias! Como estas?
*in my limited spanish vocabulary.
Buenos dias!... Taco Bell... Taco Bell
- that's CV's spanish
CV, no it didn't silly! 106.45 was the low on friday!
AR, wish i could reply bien bien, but comme ci, comme ça is the real answer.
CV said...
Buenos dias!... Taco Bell... Taco Bell
- that's CV's spanish
Por qué ?
@karen
Correct... I was thinking of the 107 strike for some reason...
Basil Fawlty: Ah, Manuel? There is too much butter on those trays.
Manuel: Que?
Basil Fawlty: [speaking slowly] There is too much butter on those trays.
Manuel: Ah, no senor. No "on those trays"...
[counting the trays]
Manuel: "uno, dos, tres".
@72bat
"Would you like a rat"? :-)
"If you bother me again I shall visit you in the small hours of the night and put a bat up your nightdress."
I have no idea what you two are conversing about.. but i hate vxx : )
um, what are chances of $indu going sub 10K? could we just tap it?
karen,
hard to say, we are hanging around where we did all day friday, longer it does this without dropping further and I think we get that last rally leg into August.
Ben, yes.. and surely we could rally on tomorrow's Housing Starts.. : )
@McF
What are the normal parameters with regards to the wave "B" RETRACE on an ABC type moves?
min/max
Since we love to talk politics here, I give you George W. Bush, Screwup Chief 2001-2008
@karen
Thank our lucky stars we have Owebama and a house & Senate full of liberals who are on their way to "fixing" all the problems they inherited...
Boy do I feel lucky!
CV,
that's sort of a loaded so I'm just going to refrence what AT says on his slide
I like that count on slide 1 he put out, I think we stay open to this idea with some sort of short position in case the impulse down is correct, in that case his (B) should retrace 60-80% of (A) as he puts in the slide.
If you just want to think about the concept of the B wave, this is the personality from EWP:
B waves are phonies, They are sucker plays, bull traps, speculators' paradise, orgies of odd-lotter mentality or expressions of dumb institutional complacency (or both) They often involve a focus on a narrow list of stocks, are often "unconfirmed" (See Dow Theory) by other averages, are rarely technically strong, and are virtually always doomed to complete retracement by wave C. If the analyst can say "there is something wrong with this market" chances are it's a B wave. X waves and D waves in expanding triangles have the same characteristics.
here is the first example they give of a B wave:
The upward correction of 1930 was a wave B within the 1929-1932 A-B-C zigzag decline.
from Robert Rhea's The Story of the Averages from 1934 describing the emotion of the time:
....many observers took it to be a bull market signal. I can remember having shroted stocks early in December, 1929, after having completed a satisfactory short position in October. When the slow but steady advance of Jan and Feb carried above [theprevious high], I became panicky and covered at a considerable loss....I forgot that the rally might normally be expected to retrace possibly 66% or more of the 1929 downswing. Nearly everyone was proclaiming a new bull market. Services were extremely bullish, and the upside volume was running higher than at the peak in 1929.
Another way to consider B waves...EWI counts the 02 low to the 07 peak as a B wave in an expanded flat correction that started in 2000, that's a little more recent so you can remember the emotions very well....I think the description above, written back in the 70's, serves pretty well in describing 03-07.
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/2514-To-President-Obama-STOP-LYING.html
@McF
"dumb institutional complacency"
Time is about ripe for that...
I mean hell... If CV is bored, just imagine what BRIAN is thinking...
I watched Joe Biden interviewed this Sunday morning, his discussion about the economy was priceless. That will be worth looking back on in about 5-6 years.
look at last 5 candles on a 30 min $spx chart..
2 min to go to find out if recent history repeats : )
C,
11:21, yeah I think it's alredy happened several times since we topped in April, just at different degrees of trend so sometimes the complacency feels bigger than other B waves. Just like it would have to anyone that couldn't believe how long the bubble in RE lasted, or the 2009 rally, say what you will about e-wave, at least this period of time will give us plenty lessons in extreme social mood, if nothing else is should advance the tool as well as socionomics.
5 minutes and you hit it...
did anyone read the emotion article I linked above, I found it pretty fascinating. Would love to hear other people's thoughts on it.
gotta step away for a bit, I feel like crap today...
Citigroup, Inc (NYSE: C) and AIG (NYSE: AIG) classified more than $11 billion in loans as sales during the second half of 2009, hiding the two companies’ risk levels, according to a report with ABC News citing SEC filings.
The announcement came in the form of letters from the Securities and Exchange Commission which were first drafted on April 13th and made public on Thursday. The letters gave details about the two firm’s repurchasing agreement accounting between 2007 and 2009.
http://www.americanbankingnews.com/2010/07/19/citigroup-inc-nyse-c-and-aig-hid-11-million-in-loans-through-repurchasing-agreements/
Ben, just skimmed it! interesting indeed! nothing I would argue against there.. although, i do think one could be predisposed to being happy or sad and tend to find like individuals.. (birds of a feather, and all that!)
McFearless your comment about Paulson was priceless. Let's see how he does when cheating isn't such a big part of the equation.
A must read NLY post:
http://annaly.com/blog/2010/07/16/FridayDataDumpDisappointingDeflationaryDoubleDip.aspx
Paulson-
Ultimately the bet was dumb. Who goes into a casino and bets 100 million when you KNOW the casino only has, and therefore can only pay out 20 million.
OK, so the pre-lunch waterfall postponed...
10078 is the next upside level to watch on YM.
if uup/$usd would step up.. it could get interesting.. otherwise may as well find something else to do : )
Like omelettes and coffee?
Maybe a fruit cup?
Well, dont know about yall...
But I-Man went with the fruit cup... grapes, banana, and blueberries.
And a fresh pot of shadegrown mexico.
Must've stumbled onto the food channel.
LOL.. well, i just chomped last night's dinner salad after finishing the marinated salmon and rice.. i was starving this morning. had to fax some docs to my son in NY.. he said there had been a full downpour for 20 min..
Alright, this should get everyone awake...
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5127f77c-9295-11df-9142-00144feab49a.html
"Brazilian farmland group set for HK listing"
.
.
.
http://www.conspiracyarchive.com/NWO/Rothschild_Grail.htm
Karen @ 12:36
What, no scanner?
DL, if you knew how much time i spent trying to get the damn thing to work! downloaded new driver, etc.. it prints wirelessly fine.. can't get it to scan : (
Karen,
Yeah, I like the IDEA of scanning documents. But I still have plenty of paper files.
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
I thought for sure the tinfoil would get a signal...
CV @ 12:45
If you're going to quote Mannwich, you should at least give him credit.
Monday, July 19th, 2010, 11:03 am
Moody's Investors Service downgraded $7.4bn of supbrime residential mortgage-backed security (RMBS) issued by a Merrill Lynch entity at the height of the housing bubble.
The credit-rating agency downgraded ratings of 135 tranches and confirmed ratings on 29 tranches of 28 RMBS deals issued by Merrill Lynch Mortgage Investors Trust in 2005 and 2006. First-lien, fixed- and adjustable-rate subprime mortgages primarily back the affected deals.
The ratings actions come amid continued deterioration of subprime pool performance in conjunction with distressed house price and unemployment conditions.
http://www.housingwire.com/2010/07/19/moodys-downgrades-7-4bn-of-merrill-lynch-subprime-rmbs
What's the deal with "tinfoil" anyway?
Don't most people use ALUMINUM foil these days?
@Nic/Bob,
Yeah, Paulson, I'm not so impressed with him like a lot of people are, certainly interested in watching the next several years to see how his 300 some odd million shares btwn BAC and C serve as "long term investments"
Thanks DL! LOL.
CV @ 12:50
wikipedia has an entry for "tin foil hat"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tin_foil_hat
What about people who "drink the kool aid"? Didn't they all die?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drinking_the_Kool-Aid
I consume my kool-aid in frozen form...takes the edge off.
Never heard of shade grown mexican pot...new strain i-man?
lets not make it a political issue and just ask the simple question...
What good does it do to further extend unemployment benefits?
anon,
that's the new strand that WFC provided the research funding for.
What good does it do to further extend unemployment benefits?
Well how else can they pay for their $100 a month cell phone bill & $100 a month cable...
Also - You don't expect anyone to turn off their air conditioner to save on that $300 a month power bill do you?
Extend and pretend is a form of QE.. however, if i were the unemployed person, it would do me a lot of good.. put food in my childrens' mouths, for instance.
Haha... yall crack me up.
http://www.starbucksstore.com/products/shprodde.asp?SKU=313018
CV, i was tempted to get sarcastic myself about money for alcohol/drugs/ciggs but decided to take a higher road.. for some, this is NO laughing matter.
CV, maybe Nic would put up a wingwalker avatar if you'd give us another body shot : )
Plus, not so sure how well a shadegrown variety of herb would yield...
:)
5 min crude has a head and shouldery look to it, laughing.. i should only trade that and get out of everything else.
Ben, because this is what these people think!!
Summers: More Fiscal Stimulus Now, Reduce Deficits when economy has recovered
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/07/summers-more-fiscal-stimulus-now-reduce.html
CV had it correct a week or two ago when he said something along the lines of
Obama, seems like a nice guy, don't hate him
Biden....whatever
Lawrence Summers....that's pure evil
put food in my childrens' mouths, for instance.
Not using a cell phone, turning off lights, not running the AC full blast, and going to basic TV service would put food in their mouths as well...
Quintessential LB over at MM: https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=34323687&postID=3699286069722087133
extended benefits keeps the despair among the masses at bay. but after 99 weeks, why differentiate between sub-classes, previously unemployed, under-employed, no longer looking for work, etc. just provide "compensation" to anyone who is unemployed. oh, and don't forget to schedule a circus to come to every town as well.
McF @ 1:19
The Republicans are saying that they are quite willing to extend unemployment benefits, as long as it's paid for, i.e., spending cuts somewhere else (or an admission by Obama that taxes will have to go up).
If it had been up to me, the "stimulus" bill from last year would have consisted of just two provisions: elimination of the payroll tax, and extension of unemployment benefits.
I'd sooner live in a cardboard box than give up my iPhone.
Long the Dong!
Long dong, silver...
@ I-Man
Lots of peeps paying mortgages out of backyad " toolsheds" in Canada...I'm acquainted with half a dozen. If you think Vancouver housing prices don't have anything to do with B.C. bud, you're dreaming.
FUNEmployment
With the benefits now, people are praying to get laid off and sit on their asses for the next 2 years...
Sorry guys, I'm easily amused. Have been since about age 8.
I-Man,
γο το χελλ, ωηίτε βου.
Mel, I believe the reason for the floor in california RE can be explained in the same way. When did the feds stop enforcing federal drug laws there?
- Extended - Extended - Extended Funemployment
- Summers "we need more stimulus"
- Soros "we need more stimulus"
+ TWSWB
= TYPICAL RECOVERY
@ I-Man
Didn't mean "you" specifically ;-)
thanks, you are all thinking the same things going through my mind about the "benefits"
did you all see this? (actually, i need to finish reading the article.) However, I loved these lines: It was said of the Bourbons that they forgot nothing and learned nothing. The same could easily be said of some of today’s latter-day Keynesians.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/270e1a6c-9334-11df-96d5-00144feab49a.html
Anyone claiming no double dip couldn't be more consensual, just see Bob Doll's interview on CNBC this morning.
the money word for August became clear to me this morning:
"Soft patch"
( and that's in reference to the economy LB)
uup at HOD.. don't look ! you will jinx it.. just take my word for it 24.03 !!! LOL
http://www.youtube.com/user/optionmonstertv
today's topstep: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GY1u-iZLm7A
Why not put the people with EXTENDED benefits (those BEYOND what is covered by unemployment insurance) to work for the tax payer?...
Effin dig ditches, or lick stamps, or clean out urinals in public buildings or something...
Or if you skills are more 'domestic'... Friggin bake cookies and pies for Romer & Co. to wolf down at economic roundtable meetings...
lol, should've taken today off after watching top step.
cv -
wpa redux may not be all that far off.
really would rather see that than in(de)finitely extended uc.
We be looking at longs now at Dread.
i need to see the spx repelled at 1069.. would be third tap of overhead 50ema on 10 min chart.
@ Bob (1:45)
That's a "loaded" question...such a big place...so few Mounties.
Actually, enforcement hasn't ceased. However, sentencing standards are so variable, it's hard to get a handle on it. Risk/reward depends on the individual. If you've got time, I found the following fascinating...
http://www.cbc.ca/documentaries/doczone/2010/cannabiz/
"What’s been far more surprising to me, however, is how few economists thus far are willing to give credence to the idea that a double dip recession may be in the offing. Generally speaking, we’ve heard that double-dips are so rare an occurrence that they are unlikely to be seen now. Our past 18-24 months, however, have made what was once considered rare part of the new normal.
That said, I’m not so sure we’ll see a double-dip recession, either–but for an entirely different reason. I’m not so sure we ever really ended our first one."
http://www.housingwire.com/2010/07/19/forget-the-double-dip-wheres-the-recovery
we never left the first recession...
or else...
it'll be a recession followed by depression...
The high unemployment rate we're experiencing was caused by George Bush's "tax cuts for the rich".
@Nancy
Maybe you can give them all jobs as flight attendants on your cross country hops...
Or as canners at your hubbys pineapple plantation...
from corey at afraidtotrade:
Look for a potential upside break if buyers push the index above 1,070 then above 1,072 – and montior any signs of intraday bullish impulse closely.
Otherwise, the inability of buyers to push above 1,072 continues the downtrend in place, so look for futher downside activity on a break under 1,065.
Those will be your key short-term price levels to watch.
Pump it up, ladies and gents.
i don't like this game anymore.. i'm gonna take my marbles and go home.
Prechter May have Nailed This One
I know it doesnt seem like it, but that 10160 level on YM could come into play before the close.
CV said...
Why not put the people with EXTENDED benefits (those BEYOND what is covered by unemployment insurance) to work for the tax payer?...
Effin dig ditches, or lick stamps, or clean out urinals in public buildings or something...
....CV, I know you have been reading that the agricultural portion of the economy is dreading the Arizona law as they think it will keep illegals out when crops are ripe. There is some of this showing up already...seems like a good thing for someone out of work for >99 weeks to me...
@karen: I think many are (or have come) coming around to this point of view. This crap could just drag on and on, just like Japan. Super slo mo deflation...
Karen,
re: Yelnick
Here is what I don't like about that EWI chart, which btw, that was Hochberg that put that chart out.
Every single time I've seen EWI recognize some short term cycle, like what is shown on that 8-9 day rotation for highs and lows, it never ends up playing out for more than 1-2 more cycles. I've just seen it happen too many times with those guys.
re: Japan
"just like Japan"
Great,if we are going to be just like them bears should be licking their chops, we have much much further to fall in both equity and property values.
Of course, there is that problem of more and more people coming around to this p.o.v.
does anyone follow Carl Futia, I've seen him put out several awful awful wave counts, what do any of his followers say?
I think we'd also have to agree, for the Japan scenario to actually play out the same way here, some other country in the world needs to step up, like...right now, and credit must massively expand in that economy to offset the deflation here. And again, that still left the Nikkei down some 90% not too long ago, I'd love to see how our "social safety nets" survive the Japan like scenario.
Remember, it's a quadrillion in total that basically would need to be monetized if this is all up to "they" at the Fed.
So which country will step up to plate for the "greater good"?
China?
Brazil?
we know who it isn't going to be...
55/233 > 50/200 IMHO
Stocks up as Intel reportedly settles with FTC
3:22 PM ET 7/19/10 NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks extended their gains Monday, with Intel Corp. leading gains on the Dow industrials after Reuters reported the chip manufacturer had struck a preliminary settlement with the Federal Trade Commission. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 76.51 points to 10,174.41. The S&P 500 climbed 8.55 points to 1,073.43. The Nasdaq Composite rose 21.95 points to 2,200.
55/233 $COMP hasn't crossed yet
Glad I dont get seasick...
looks like a rejection of the overhead 10 or 20 ema lines to me when spx couldn't hold 1074 area.. 30 min to go..
http://people-press.org/report/636/
Sure looked like a lower high to me, Karen.
CV
Looks like it'll cross in 2-3 days.
got our homework set! 6 must read essays from JG
https://www.gmo.com/America/CMSAttachmentDownload.aspx?target=JUBRxi51IIDcqoAT4ld7GKOHZUG9JWP9W5DQj1S%2fKmc5I%2bGUtYqbld%2bgoxFi%2bzMxD26ZaIg3t8LA9GnUQ2h6TnK80Pma%2fQVLgB%2bZrymgy9rhjCUhG6OY3w%3d%3d
this might be of interest as well:
http://people-press.org/report/606/trust-in-government
@CV
Not to make you cranky or anything ;-)... but did you see this:
Changing Stance, Administration Now Defends Insurance Mandate as a Tax
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/18/health/policy/18health.html?scp=1&sq=health%20insurance%20tax&st=cse
this day was annoying and a waste of time.. hindsight is 20-20 on how i could have made it good!
from the last link:
Despite the attention captured by demonstrations and other expressions of anti-government sentiment, Americans’ feelings about the federal government run more toward frustration rather than anger. In the current survey, 56% say they are frustrated with the federal government, 21% say they are angry and 19% say they are basically content. Since October 1997, majorities have expressed frustration with the federal government, with a single notable exception; in November 2001, two months after the 9/11 attacks, just 34% said they were frustrated with the federal government.
Notice the trend of anger is building since the start of the bear market it.
I got you beat Karen...
I had a nicely stacked P&L until I got hyper in the last 20 min and pissed it all away doing dumb shit.
thanks for the links ben and mel.. i did skim them!
@Karen
No problem...If I wasn't snowed under with a house reno, I'd be a little more active here
You're a sweetheart and having gone through something similar...I'm feeling for you right now. Chin up. You're well loved.
Nice little 30 handle 1min candle dump on YM just now...
Bastards.
Was waiting on that cliff dive... knew it was coming.
IBM headline line looked good but down in AH.. ??
Mel, thanks, thanks.. and i don't have health insurance, shocking, i know.
Gonna beat it for a bit.. get some outdoor exercise under a so cal gray sky (again.) check back later!
IBM reports higher profit and revenue, raises full-year outlook
07/19/2010 04:15:13 PM
Marketwatch only puts out positive reading headlines..
These debt numbers always freak me out!
4:16 PM ET IBM Debt, Including Global Financing, Totaled $26.7B At 2Q End
Dow Jones
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/07/first-time-in-history-direct-bidders.html
Good stuff in here:
http://boombustblog.com/reggie-middleton/2010/07/16/after-a-careful-review-of-jp-morgans-earnings-release-i-must-ask-what-the-hell-are-those-boys-over-at-jp-morgan-thinking/#more-2591
The derivative chart in particular.
Now 100 handles off the afternoon high on YM...
Both IBM and TI miss?
I am back, just reading through the links.
What a boring day.
I am reading the Jeremy Grantham July letter - good stuff
http://www.scribd.com/doc/34548479/Grantham-Summer-Essays
Hey Nic,
Great wing walking photo! I've been waiting to see that.
Buy a razor LJ...
:))
I don't know if I can I-Man, I shaved last year and was told by people in the office that it was "freaking them out".
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