A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection
Creditcane meet Creditami. Creditami meet Creditcane.
SPXBearish long day. Dove below 1078.87 (fib using low). Barely above the SMA(21) and below the SMA(233). Midpoint slightly above EMA(10). Still above the weekly 3LB mid. Held the trendline (2/5/10-5/21/10). Tested and failed trendline (2/5/10-5/6/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1096.48). QE2infinity.
DXYBullish long day. Fridays hammer is officially confirmed. Midpoint below EMA(10). Will it break the SMA(144)…NO 2x. The 85.11 (fibo .1459) has been violated (retest coming soon). Still below the 61.8% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 83.64).
VIXBullish piercing day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. "Fear is here so don't get fooled on market pumps. Repeat ad nauseam." Now above the SMA(89). The SMA(144) has held. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 45.79).
GOLDBearish short day. Harami banzai'd. Below the SMA(21). Tested and failed the SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). "To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud!". No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1206.70).
EURUSDBearish long day. Must hold off start of evening star (too late it's formed). Midpoint above the EMA(10). Back below the SMA(89). Failed to hold 1.2935 (fib .1459). Still above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal now 1.2730).
JNKSpinning top day. Possible evening star forming. Tested the 61.8% retrace (failed). Still above the SMA(89) and the SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).
GSBearish short day (also formed bearish thrusting). Failed 2nd test of SMA(89). Back below 147.91 (fib .236). Tested 23.6% retrace (passed). Midpoint above the EMA(10). Closed above 144.98 (fib 2.058 from low). The 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12 is on vacation for now. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 140.25).
10YR YIELDBearish long day. Didn't test the 14.6% retrace (already failed). About to retest 0.0% retrace at 28.83 (yup yup). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below the SMA(21). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal now 31.14). Was BB sweating in front of Congress today?
WTIBearish engulfing day (close enough). Still above the SMA(21) and SMA(55) but below the SMA(233). Midpoint above the EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 72.14).
AAPLBearish long day (did confirm bullish engulfing). Still below the SMA(21) and SMA(55). Tested trendline using recent lows (failed) and trendline using highs (passed). Resistance was found at 265 (upper trendline). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 235.86).
69 comments:
Nic,
Liked your comment about the bond rating agencies. If that is you on the biplane, you got guts girl.
@Mannwich:
" and me-thinks they'd have been better literally giving out free money to the average person (literally dropping it from helicopters) than doing what they did (e.g. save the very rotten banks, people and system that got us here). I think that MAY be dawning on them now."
Dude, what are you talking about?
I don't want to go on some rant because I don't understand what you are saying here so I'd love some insight as to what exactly you mean by the above, and if you don't feel like it, that's cool too.
and if that doesn't make sense for starters things like
1. where does this money being dropped from helicopters come from exactly, it still has to be borrowed right?
or
2. this "they" how are they, better, I guess we could say, at determining the best thing for "the money" (see credit) compared to those in your statement (the very rotten banks, people and system that got us here) Surely you would agree that this "they", in fact, had the largest hand in getting us here?
Just because Mr. Wizard presented this completely moronic idea of dropping money from helicopters during credit deflation as a last resort solution doesn't mean that it's the right thing to do. Of course, he does have a PhD.....so you better shut up and listen!
I think I get what you are saying, but in the end this only makes us worse off as well, why make people think by dropping money out of heli's is a solution only to have them be blindsided anyway. Haven't we had enough already with the f-ing fleecing of the sheeple?
We can be better than that.
and so Obama says today that FinReg prevents any more "bail-outs"
hmm, this should be fun to watch, of course, this is just a soft patch, so nothing to worry about anytime soon
right?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38280326
Consumers Beating Manufacturers at Their Own Game
Key Points
93% expect to continue spending cautiously when the economy improves
89% feel they have become more resourceful because of the economy
84% I am looking closely at every spending category to see where I can save
...The "CVing" of America...
From Nic's link:
That is important because some bonds, notably those that are made up of consumer loans, are required by law to include ratings in their official documentation. That means new bond sales in the $1.4 trillion market for mortgages, autos, student loans and credit cards could effectively shut down.
There have been no new asset-backed bonds put on sale this week, in stark contrast to last week, when $3 billion of issues were sold. Market participants say the new law is partly behind the slowdown.
Hey Frank and Dodd, thanks for the deflation guys.....I knew I could count on you.
"Shoppers also are more willing to see saving money as a game and enjoy playing it. So much so that even 55 percent of those who reported cutting back on spending said they had suffered no decline in income, but simply felt they "should be cutting back."
"If you ignore it, you ignore it at your own risk. There is a 'new normal,'" he said."
...Mr. Rogers said,"Can you say deleveraging? I knew you could...."
The only new expense we have is putting our daughter-in-law through college...but we've always lived below our means...as Ben said, we've always been savers...
it's free week at EWI through 7/28 if anyone is interested
@ben: I mean, that idea would have been a horrible idea as well, but if you're going to do something to juice the economy for a while (Main Street, if you will), you don't throw all sorts of free money at the banks, who then turn around and pump the stock market, commodities and treasuries with it and expect it to somehow magically trickle down to Main Street and small businesses. Just dumb, idiotic policy, but if you're going to try to juice the real economy, there were/are better ways, I think. How about policies that incent the right behaviors, for instance? I know I'm being vague but my main point was that trying to bail out the status quo was idiotic, as we all here generally agree. There's no way around feeling SOME pain here but if you're going to throw all those resources around, I think there were/are more effective ways of blowing one's wad.
And I'm not advocating they take that tact either. I just think if you're going to choose the lesser of two obvious evils......
this guy doesn't post very often at Dan's but his stuff is usually very good when he does post so I'm going to share it here as I'm not sure many people read that site, which is understandable:
Sugarman 2 minutes ago
Just thought it was time to give my $.02
On the monthly chart, lets not forget that May closed at 1089.41 and June opened at 1087.30. Notice today's high.
On the weekly chart I have a lot to cover. Gaps are very rare on weekly's which make them extremely important. In the past two years 2 windows were left open, one on the way down, the other on the way up. The first was left in Oct 08 between 1097.56 & 1098.14. Notice the market failed to close above this range last week. The second was between 1071.48-1072.31 this past Nov. It does not surprise me that the market is around this level during crunch time. Besides, 3 x 360 = 1080 and life supposedly works in 3's.
The market dropped 73 weeks from Oct 07 to Mar 09. This is the 72nd week from the March 6th 2009 low. 72 is half the square of 144! With next week being the end of the month and the beginning of the Cardinal Climax of the planets........By the way, the market dropped 352 trading days. 352 T-days from March 6th is a week from tomorrow, on the 29th. Sorry I don't have it to the hour or minute, just lazy I guess.
My charts are 10 points/week charts. This is the 54th week from the July 09 bottom of 869.32. Counting up 20 points per week from "0" on that week the 2x1 angle is at 1080 this week. The market has been climbing & straddling this time angle for 4 weeks. It will be at 1100 next week. With the daily triple top in the 1099 area last week, need I say how important it is to keep touching that angle. Next week is also 55 weeks (Fibonacci #) from that bottom.
This is the 12th week from the 1219.80 high. Moving down 10 points per week from that high, the 1x1 angle is at 1099.80 this week. It will be at 1089.80 next week and will be at 1079.80 the first week of August, extremely close to 1080. The week ending June 25th closed at 1076.76. The following week of ending July 2nd opened at 1077.50. The week of July 9th closed at 1077.96 and last week opened at 1077.23. Did I say we are approaching crunch time.
In my study's, Eclipses play an important part. I alway's watch the range of the market between eclipses. The latest range between June 26th-July 11th was 1011.91 to 1082.50. Above or below this range is very important. Notice all the bottoms in the mid 1080's last November and the second hammer bottom on Feb 25th at 1086.02 which launched to new highs. Will old bottoms become new tops? To indicate the importance of eclipse ranges, one only has to look at the last cycle in January. On New years eve the market had a lunar Eclipse at 1115 and on Jan 14th a Solar at 1150. Look at what happened later, above and below that range.
The market closed 2009 at 1115.10 and opened 2010 at 1116.56. Notice the last two highs of 1131 and 1099. Don't you just love symmetry.
Saturn will make it's fifth and final pass opposite Uranus late next week. After the first 4 passes the market dropped an average 3-5 weeks. Over the coming 4 weeks Jupiter & Uranus will be opposite Mars & Saturn and all these planets will be 90 degress from Pluto, all in the beginning of Cardinal signs. This T-Square is negative to the Federal Reserve's Natal Sun. Ole Ben seemed a little uneasy today. Think the market sensed it?
One last thing, August 10th will be the 360th trading day from the March 6th low. Moving up 1 point per day from the 666.79 bottom, the 1x1 angle will be at 1026.79 on that day.
damn, that's long, sorry about the length on that one.
Manny,
yeah, generally I agree but still we don't need to be juicing anything, that's my primary point. Also, I challenge the idea that all the money flowed into the stock market on a number of levels but who cares.
That EWI free week is for the energy services only, I believe, and includes intraday updates.
@Karen
If you still dabble in oil, this might interest you.
Oh, I tend to agree, ben, although I would keep the unemployment funds (and maybe the COBRA) spigot on for a while longer. There's no sense turning that off yet, in my mind unless we all want ugly social unrest on our hands and in our neighborhoods.
@Ben
What are you thinking of EWI count?
Personally, I'm liking it. It is pretty much what I've been working on but with the extended fifth for minor 1 versus their count. It doesn't really matter - same outcome.
I've been pretty busy the past couple of days but I was thinking at the close (after seeing the run up during the day, thank god I wasn't around to experience it) 1088 is the new number to watch.
Next few days should be quick and nasty - just the way I like it on the short side.
*Oh sh*t, I just jinxed it didn't I*
@ben: And I don't necessarily think it all went to the stock market, but a good portion of it had to....and the other portions went to some other "asset".
But I realize that's not "monetary" policy. That's fiscal policy.
Looks like the Wizard is running out of "tools", nevertheless.
If DXY and EUR/USD have found a bottom, stick a fork in everything.
Mr. Market would truly live up to his reputation if he comes just short of the 'target boxes' or major fibo number/retracements.
EUR/USD found a top of course!
alright-
I give up-
There was a different AM post earlier- then it switched out-
what did I miss that caused the general strike by CV?
just wondering . . .
McHappy,
I'm really not sure about any of the near term counts is the real answer, nor do I really think that matters much in the bigger picture, if I roll with their count it's down, big, if I count the move off the highs as an ABC X then it's the same conclusion and that count, to me, has the better look, they are the top two interpretations imo, you could have neely's in there but I'm a little suspect of that count, I reject the interpretation that the 09-10 was an impulse so that's not even on my need to think about list.
either way, daaaaaaa bears.
@ McF
Notice those "18" numbers in that looong post? Wish I had more time to spend on this and also, not sure how astrology fits into it though.
18
18,
I figured that would draw you out, kind of hard not to notice, lot of interesting stuff in there, that persons posts are always filled with all kinds of stuff and sometimes attached charts that are done entirely by hand, which is insane.
I wonder if I dug up some of his old one's there'd be more 18 reference in them...
. . .also-
the unemployment benefit standoff has been resolved-
payments will continue- let's see-
26 weeks plus 73 weeks - 99 weeks-
wow that's like two years or something- lol
they're not temporarily unemployed- they're completely unemployed-
who are we kidding? switch them over to welfare services as an addition to the permanent underclass
LOL, really I just got home from work, but do check this and a few other sites throughout the day. I'd like to see some of the older charts if there are any.
Even the 72 weeks (4X18) and 144 (8X18) is complexing. Also, when he says 1131, I see 1134... lol
18
Ben
Sounds like he uses Gann angles (or a version of it). I'm trying to figure out how or why does he choose 10 points/week or 1 point/day?
72 is also 50% of the fibo 144. Damn I just thought of something. Need to see if there is a change in market direction on the 50% as well as the fibo day.
One of my simple tells. If the current week can't close above the midpoint of the candle body of the previous week indicates weakness ahead.
@ahab (9:01)
"what did I miss that caused the general strike by CV?"
Answer:
- Boredom
- Complacency
- Lack of Commitment
- Lack of Effort
- Lack of Ideas
- Lack of Feedback
Such things cause a SCIOPERO (a general strike)... These things happen from time to time in "socialist" regimes...
It happens when governments devoid individuals of HOPE...
People failed to read Obama's real message back in '08... It meant to read...
"HOPE... Soon you will have none"
McFearless
That astrology stuff was great - don't apologise!
CV,
that's all? sort of anticlimactic, was really hoping that it was the Italians getting to your stash. Either way man, I am hanging on your every word!
CV-
you kill me dude
Bruce is that your puppy? I have a lump in my throat, what a gorgeous dog.
@McF
Fuck you very much! :-)
@ahab
Just "shakin' up" the SNOW DOME...
@ahab
Good thing too...
Someone might have missed a 1.3% DOWN DAY when MOMOS were expecting the exact opposite...
Never underestimate the power of Bernocchio flapping his yap...
Or... OVERestimate... as the case may be...
@McF
That (8:40) was the "bitchin'-ist" post I've read all year...
I'm going to spend the rest of the night trying to decipher it with charts...
Thanks dude...
I've GOTTA ADMIT...
I try hard... but...
TYLER DURDEN is often KICKING CV's ASS on PROSE these days...
From TD...
"The White House has released a video (in HD cause its so damn cool, and with subtitles for those immigrants among you who don't quite understand the Enlgish) for idiots who still don't grasp that Wall Street reform is nothing but a farce almost as unabashedly idiotic as the early Friday release of the Farce Test coming out of a thoroughly bankrupt Europe, which will find that of 91 banks on the old continent, only 10x bankrupt Hypo is undercapitalized, and all the Greek banks are perfectly solvent. Right. Whatever. And in keeping with the tradition of Keynesianism for Kretins (sic) released previously by the Goldman HoldCo better known as the New York Fed, the administration has now realized that the only way to touch its intellectually challenged constituency is by summarizing its achievements in cartoon format, easily viewable on an iPhone. Coming soon - "Why Shutting Down Tendentious Blogs Is Great For The Children" in 3-D IMAX. The explanation provided by the "White House" for this pathologically moronic cartoon is: "A quick and simple animated explanation of how Wall Street Reform will work and what the strongest consumer protections in history will mean for you and your family." And yes, this comes from your ruling elite."
---
CV will bow, smile and take the "silver medal" on this one... Then...
- Smile for the cameras
- Fire my coach
- Redouble my efforts
- See you in London in 2012 bitch! :-)
Bravo Tyler! :-)
CV-
hahahahhahaha-
wow- I guess they are really trying to reach their constituents-
hope they can read the captions- lol
"We don't need no stinkin' GRAND DEBATING SOCIETY"
That is my puppy. She is now the size of a small horse. But the gentlest animal I've ever owned. A wonderful animal.
ahab @9:01, "i give up-" my husband said that to me not one hour ago!
Bruce, i want that baby! I don't care how big she is now.. There is a girlie dog at the beach that i see a couple of times a week.. the owner (whom I don't know) cannot figure out our bond.. that dog, even if on a leash, begs to be let go to run and say hello to me.. then returns back to its owner.. yesterday, she was loose but playing frisbee with another dog.. when she saw me come down onto the sand, she stopped her play, ran over to let me touch her and tell her how pretty she is, and then went back to her buddy..
Ben @ 8:40.. I am very thankful you shared that post! My next step is to print it out..
@karen
Was not MCF (8:40) the best post you've ever read?
I'm still awake here...
WATCHING
As S&P futures are RED (not that they won't be kick saved by the PPT by the New York open tomorrow)... But what the hell? It's all in good fun right?
Other places are reporting that S&P futures are green... But then I also read COMMENTS on those SAME other blogs that 'laughed' at the 'taking to task' of those comments...
Nobody would ever know though because all the evidence has been subsequently WHITEWASHED...
I'm just a disinterested observer here, providing my INANE analysis on things...
Similarly to last year, where I was giving my INANE comments on the subject of fitness science (on another blog), and was PUT IN MY PLACE by a mouthy plebe...
10yr 2.87 and falling...(uh oh)
@AmenRa (12:28)
RUH ROH...
damn it! just posted and didn't realize it did not take when I refreshed..
who knows what magical words I shared?!
CV, i did mention that I sent you and email... also my methodology for printing out Ben's 8:40 post as if anyone would care...
AR, liking your 12:28 even more than your wrap.. but what will we awake, too ?!
@Amen
2.87...
Fuck me! :-)... Think about it dude...
Gary Schilling (1 handle) for PRESIDENT...
LB could be considered as well (but I don't think he's a natural born citizen... MEH that kinda shizz don't seem to matter anymore)...
CV
If it continues lower then prepare for the coming out party of K-A-T-H-E-R-I-N-E.
@karen (12:40)
If CV's math is correct... we're on:
QE 1.5
&
PPT intervention 330 at the moment...
But watch that approaching 337 number closely... After all... IT'S FIBO...
Time for dreams of QE2. Ciao.
@Amen
Well anyway... Monday & Tuesday evening when the 10yy & the VIX weren't confirming anything... & AAPL was blowing out earnings...
At least there were a few people around who weren't wasting their time A FARE "FANTINI CHIOCCIOLA"
NEL QUEL MOMENTO...
Ha! just noticed a post by LB at MacroMan.. he's a bit irked that the T yields are still falling.. well, guess what the P&F is on TBT? 25!
You all will remember my calling and buying that in 08, 9 cents off the low of 35.51.. not bragging because i sold atrociously too low.. the point is, look where we are today! a close of 34.88 !!
Earlier today I noted how bearish $tnx and $tyx looked..so the close did not surprise..
@karen
$TNX bitchez! :-)
@karen
CV will be watching JNK domani...
Still think we're in the middle of some kind of VOLATILITY vortex tho...
Whatever happens tomorrow...
That's not the end of it... It could whiplash back in a hurry...
EXPANDING WEDGE BITCHEZ
lol
And whiplash it did.
Unless we break 1088, there is no doubt in my mind we have entered minor 3. The ups and downs are crazy lately.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/22/business/global/22outsource.html?_r=1&ref=business
Many in Japan Are Outsourcing Themselves
"Under fierce pressure to cut costs, large Japanese companies are increasingly outsourcing and sending white-collar operations to China and Southeast Asia, where doing business costs less than in Japan. But while many American companies have been content to transfer work to, say, an Indian outsourcing company staffed with English-speaking Indians, Japanese companies are taking a different tack. Japanese outsourcers are hiring Japanese workers to do the jobs overseas — and paying them considerably less than if they were working in Japan"
WTF??? Somebody please explain why futures are up 1%? What happened in the Europe/Asia markets to cause this?
Who is selling the yen because it had a decent gain earlier?
$TNX at 2.905. Forget the futures, listen to the bonds.
this might put a dent in the futures-
Jobless Claims Rise More than Expected Up 37,000 to 464,000
call me ahab said...
this might put a dent in the futures-
Jobless Claims Rise More than Expected Up 37,000 to 464,000
This might be the new normal, high unemployment numbers for years to come. Most likely market will shrug it off .
NEW THREAD
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