A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection
Creditcane headed in wrong direction. It keeps making surprise turns that affects all.
SPXBullish long day. Snuck above 1078.87 (fib using low). Back above the SMA(21) but below the SMA(233). Midpoint below EMA(10). Back above the weekly 3LB mid. Held the trendline (2/5/10-5/21/10). Failed to get above trendline (2/5/10-5/6/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1096.48). QE2infinity.
DXYSpinning top day. Still confirming Fridays hammer. Midpoint below EMA(10). Will it break the SMA(144)…NO 2x. The 85.11 (fibo .1459) has been violated (call CSI to investigate). Still below the 61.8% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal now 83.64).
VIXBearish long day. Midpoint is below EMA(10). Closed below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. "Fear is here so don't get fooled on market pumps. Repeat ad nauseam." Now below the SMA(89). The SMA(144) has held in the past (we'll see). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 45.79).
GOLDBullish short day. Possible bullish harami. Below the SMA(21). Tested but held the SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). "To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud!". No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1206.70).
EURUSDSpinning top day. Must hold off start of evening star (not looking good). Midpoint above the EMA(10). Still above the SMA(89). Did not hold the fib .1459 of 1.2935. Still above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal now 1.2730).
JNKBullish long day. Did hold the 50.0% retrace. Tested the 61.8% retrace (failed). Back above the SMA(89) and the SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).
GSBullish long day. Still above the SMA(55). Back above 147.91 (fib .236). Tested 23.6% retrace (passed). Midpoint above the EMA(10). Closed above 144.98 (fib 2.058 from low). The 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12 is on vacation for now. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 140.25).
10YR YIELDSpinning top day. Failed bullish harami setup. Didn't test the 14.6% retrace (already failed). About to retest 0.0% retrace at 28.83. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below the SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 29.27).
LUMBERBearish short day. Building permits higher…yeah right. Still above the SMA(21). Closed back below the weekly 3LB mid. Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 195.00).
DJ TRANSSeems like all days are doji so no candle picks. Trading above the SMA(233). Midpoint below EMA(10). Weekly 3Lb is trending down. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 5977.45).
AAPLBullish engulfing day. Still below the SMA(21) and SMA(55). Tested the SMA(89) and passed. Still below trendline using recent lows and trendline using highs. Resistance at 265 (upper trendline). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 235.86).
39 comments:
$COMP has managed only one daily close above the 55MA since the flash crash... (with SPX up at 1173)...
It's nearing that barrier once again...
OTOH - when it succeeded in holding that cross (at the end of February) - it led to the March-April rally...
Love the folks on CNBC asking "what caused the turnaround?"
Well, the simple answer is that the S&P futures fell to an EXACT 50% retracement where there were plenty of technical buyers.
Guess nobody wants to hear that explanation.
Still think we see more choppiness first before we have that last wave higher that should break 1100...today was impressive though.
So far so good on the Sunday night predictions on price action for the week. Would love to see that one more big move higher to sell into it--could be the last great trade for the remainder of the year.
Hope everyone is doing well. -AT
AT,
it's a big joke isn't it?
oh well, nothing new under the sun
all,
read the comments at the bottom of the thread, seems we are forming a bit of a consensus based on today's action that we should go higher in the near term.
From the globeandmail.com/report-on-business
"U.S. should nationalize oil: Oliver Stone".
"Control your debts, central bank tells Canadians". A .25% rate hike today. Did anyone notice? Not the loonie.
"How a hot cocoa play left trader holding the bag".
"What troubles David Rosenberg at night(via top business stories)". Too much debt/income.
@mcF (6:25)
I beg to differ...
Nic & I have made a case for actually going lower...
I'm still holding onto around a 1048 target (until I see the expanding wedge pattern get obliterated)...
LOL
"There was a time when stocks, bonds, gold, dollar, oil, correlations, and pretty much anything that isn't nailed down, going up concurrently would make at least some market participants frown.
Not so much any more - with the average "trader" an 18 year old pustular math whiz-kid with the personality of a paper clip and a Ph.D. from a prestigious institution to boot, with no idea of just the level of death and destruction their "sentient", "self-aware" and "learning" programs are about bring to the market, nobody cares about that little thing called logic.
Yet going off that, and basing observations on the last rational market indicator, i.e. bonds, it appears stocks continue to be about 70 points rich and have a fair value around 1,020 as implied by 10 Year Yields.
As the deranged schizophrenic computer algos were blowing thru vacuum tubes like Ukranian hookers go through crack on any given Hamptons weekend, they totally forgot to bring bond yields higher for validation."
10yy bitchez!
CV,
my bad, I see those comments from you and Nic, was missing a lot of comments today as it was a bit hectic.
re: wedges,
I'm almost positive somewhere inside EWP they state that wedges follow similar rules as diagonals...if that's correct you can go off those rules.
"U.S. should nationalize oil: Oliver Stone"
yeah that's e x a c t l y what we need, more government takeover of private industry, suggestions from those in Hollywood, especially of the economic type, always make the most sense. But hey, he directed Wall St. so I suppose this "means something"
@McF (9:26)
Re: Stone
I know right?
I didn't even want to go there...
"Wall St. 2" is coming out this year...
"Wall St." came out in 1987 (around the time of you know what)...
surely I'm biased in the statement I'm about to make, but I finished reading Grantham and he would have benefited greatly with the conclusions he's just now coming to about debt and money expansion by reading Prechter the last few years, or at minimum getting a copy of CTC, which offered the same forecast as Grantham is now concluding currently exists.
I like JG, however, he tends to fall back on EMH ideas in the end, and as a result, he was hit very hard in 2008, I think, as a result of his EMH flaw.
perhaps the government should take over wall st. to weed out the corruption
now that's the kind of joke I could take on the road
I'm in the lower camp as well - but that should not surprise anyone here :D
@mcHAPPY
I just flipped... :-)
@McF @McHappy
Actually - at the moment there's a pretty good BULL/BEAR argument going on right now at ZERO HEDGE in the commentary section on todays move...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/10-year-2s10s-both-suggest-manic-depressive-stocks-70-points-too-rich
it's irrelevant really, everyone here knows the larger trend has changed
bear cave
@McF
Yeah, you're right...
No harm in being bearish here... There's what? 100 more S&P points (in a wet dream world) on the upside...
Downside... MUCH MORE...
It's all a matter of position size, tolerance, and patience...
They're just delaying the inevitable.
But you're right about the 10yr not confirming todays excitement.
@Amen
Besides the 10yy...
- VIX still being supported by that 144MA
- EURUSD making a threat to its 10 day EMA (if you look at the timing of when that happened the last time - that was a BAD CROSS)
Tutto sommato...
CV isn't as "giddy" about todays reversal as it appears many others are...
@Amen
On VIX... Remember - TOMORROW AM is OPEX for VIX contracts...
There was contango until late in the day today where futures were not nearly in line with the cash...
Bottom line:
ALL THIS IS PHONY to CV (unless I see some strong follow-thru on the aggregate of tapes tomorrow)...
GMO quarterly letter:
http://www.gmo.com/websitecontent/JGLetter_SummerEssays_2Q10.pdf
well, this was very interesting:
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/checkpoint-washington/2010/07/netanyahu_america_is_a_thing_y.html
Ben
I thought folks knew that already.
it's the timing of the article Ra.
Ben
Also...why didn't it come out ten years ago?
HAHAHA Bloomberg ticker is only showing NAS Futures. I guess the fact that S&P and Dow futures are down isn't good for morale.
AmenRa @ 12:23
I see what you mean.
Never saw that happen before.
DL
It's been like that for over an hour. Maybe John Williams was right. Good news only.
Oh snap http://www.zerohedge.com/article/did-credit-agencies-just-go-extinct
Did Credit Ratings Agencies Just Go Extinct
In the new FinReg bill the agencies will become liable on formal documents filed with the SEC.
I'm laughing so hard right now because the article states that S&P, Moody's and Fitch have told everyone to not use their name on documents effective immediately.
Here's the WSJ article: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704723604575379650414337676.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
US should nationalize the entertainment industry
Boone Pickens.
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aCrIFae7VFMg
July 20 (Bloomberg) -- Payrolls decreased in 27 U.S. states in June, led by California and New York, signaling the slowdown in hiring is broad-based.
Employers in California cut staff by 27,600 workers last month and those in New York reduced employment by 22,500, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Tennessee, Arizona and New Mexico rounded out the five states with the biggest job losses.
The U.S. lost 125,000 jobs last month as the government cut temporary workers conducting the 2010 census and private payrolls rose a less-than-forecast 83,000, according to Labor Department figures issued July 2. The data signal companies are becoming reticent to hire as the economy cools.
big day today team
bring your game face
and a stack of 100's.
Ra,
Interesting, I guess for the next few month's we'll all be Pelosi's, finding out what's in the finreg bill. Can't wait to find out what trickle's down to my world, sure it will really help out the client (snark)
I have an observation but maybe I'm wrong about it
It seems to me very few people are really watching what is unfolding in China..
European Stress Tests, US Markets and Unemployment, Canada's "strength", etc etc.
Meanwhile......
NEW THREAD
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