The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has surged 48 percent on average starting in the second year of each U.S. presidential term, measured from its lowest level through the high the next year, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bloomberg. That compares with trough-to-peak gains of 38 percent in other years.
First of all, what the hell are they trying to say? "has surged 48 percent on average starting in the second year of each U.S. presidential term, measured from its lowest level through the high the next year"... "Starting in the second year means January 1, 2010... SPX "opened" this year at 1116, yesterdays close of 1071 means the markets are DOWN 4% YTD... "Through the high next year", would imply 2011... So, do the math... Do they expect the SPX to reach 1116 X 1.48 = 1651 by next year?...
So your math is:
1. Clearly Wrong
2. Even if it applies to different benchmarks that you've vaguely omitted, how does it apply to the title of your article?
Obama’s Bull Market Intact as Gridlock Signals Gains
Let me help you out here (CV will do his best to "fudge" the numbers favorably - consider this my resume application for CNBC, the Treasury Department, or the Fed)... Let's say you took the SPX on the day after the Obama election in 2008... 1107... Well hell, we were almost right on that number only a week ago... 18 months of ZERO (well, not exactly zero because it has cost 2.3 trillion to achieve that - and the tab is still running)...
Or are you going to be "selective" about it & give Obama all the credit for everything that happened north of 666? Now that is an impressive rally, but if he gets credit for it all, I suppose the move from 11/5/08 - 3/6/09 was all "Bush's fault", right?... Damn, the stock market even goes down after the poor chump left office... That move took SPX from 1107 - 666 in 3 months time...
Let's face it, the rally that began from 666 came at a "technical juncture"... Hell, if you take the ALL TIME HIGH of 1576 and do a straight 61.8% fibo back to zero you come up with 602... The market might as well have been ZERO in March '09...
So the market bounced there... When it was ready to give up that bounce (in May)... Obama's banking puppet masters came up with the clever idea of changing FASB rules... RALLY ON...
It takes a long time for the stimulus crap to work its way to the hind end of the goose... But that's about where we are today...
A rallying stock market is always a sight to behold... But CV would argue that HOLDING ON to those gains (over a long timeframe) is what people are REALLY interested in... Ask someone who bought the NASDAQ in 1999, a house in 2005, the NIKKEI in 1989... But I'm not that smart, so don't take my word on that...
If these "stock market" gains are impressive, and if we really are in recovery, answer me some of the following questions...
- Why do housing numbers continue to deteriorate?
- Why does the NBER data continue to deteriorate?
- Why haven't we seen an uptick in "private sector" job creation?
- Why are all the states broke?
- Why isn't the Fed discussing taking the foot off the QE pedal?
- Why are Larry Summers and George Soros calling for MORE stimulus?
- Why is "mark to fantasy" still in effect?
- Why has Obama raised the "debt ceiling" twice while in office, and is trying to offset a "third" raise until after the election?
- Why is there NO BUDGET drafted for 2010
Bloomberg, if you're just going to do an article that tries to win "brownie points" for your American Idol President, that's fine, I'll leave you alone...
If someone wants to look at Obama, and the best thing they can say is... "look - the stock market has rallied" (even though one bad day at any moment, could take the levels down below where they were when he & his zombies were screaming "YES WE DID" in Chicago)... Then I think they're looking at disappointment...
Or... If you don't like CV's take on things, maybe you'd prefer what Hugh Hendry has to say...
Hendry on Obama: “If there was a way to short Obama, I would,”
On the bright side... The bankers who supported Obama's campaign are doing fine and are flush with bonus money...
So he's got that going for him (along with a plush new office suite when he gets booted out - provided he doesn't manage to blow any political capital he might have left)... Might want to watch the purse strings on that a little Barry old boy...
199 comments:
@Amen
Looks like the "evening star" on EURUSD may collapse into a neutron star...
At least for a day...
CV,
Nice post man, thanks.
Here is a thought for your morning, was looking through some old charts last night, and the one that caught my eye was that of the price of gold overlapped with M1 since 1980.
From 1980-2004 M1 almost tripled and Gold lost half it's value.
GS EPS 0.78 vs exp 2.10
@McF (8:23)
Makes sense...
My biggest problem with gold is that now that we're so deeply past the POINT OF NO RETURN (with regards to ever getting the world on any sustainable "cash flow" to "debt service" balance...
It's just a matter of WHEN it's all going to blow up...
I might think differently if, back in 2008, we'd have taken the bull by the horns on this... Now it is IRRECOVERABLE...
Which means... TS will eventually hit the fan... When that happens, gold will be confiscated...
So my ideas for buying gold when I did back in 2004, are completely different from my thoughts of owning it now...
@McF
Put it this way... Back in 2004, when one might consider a DOW/GOLD cross, I might have thought that number might come in around 6000 or so...
Now I'm more in the camp that that might happen at 1000...
Building permits in June 2010 were 586,000, an increase of 2.1% from May and 2.3% below the June 2009 estimate. Housing starts declined 5.0% from the prior month, to 549,000. This was 5.8% below the June 2009 level.
fellow survivor capitalists-
what of the smart phone craze? It appears Android is a hit and what all the phone manufacturers are going to- save for Apple and Nokia-
Motorola may have turned itself around based on that one move alone-
there is talk that Microsoft will buy RIM or Nokia-
HP buys PALM-
it appears to be the battleground for the old players-
I mean even Garmin has a smart phone now-
the things can do everything except for maybe providing a smooth shave- but I am sure that's coming-
my son's phone (his first "by himself" purchase) bought a My Touch Slide- and it has a bar code reader on it????
wild stuff indeed
Oops that number included the UK bank tax and SEC charge.
8:11AM Goldman Sachs reports Q2 (Jun) results, misses on revs (GS) 145.69 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $2.75 per share, excluding the UK bank tax and SEC charge, may not be comparable to the Thomson Reuters consensus of $2.08. Including the UK bank tax and SEC charge, EPS would be $0.78. Net revenues in Trading and Principal Investments were $6.55 billion, 39% lower than the second quarter of 2009 and 36% lower than the first quarter of 2010. Operating expenses were $7.39 billion, 15% lower than the second quarter of 2009 and 3% lower than the first quarter of 2010. The accrual for compensation and benefits expenses was $3.80 billion for the second quarter of 2010. The ratio of compensation and benefits to net revenues was 43.0% (9) for the first half of 2010, down from 49.0% for the first half of 2009. Non-compensation expenses were $2.99 billion, 44% higher than the second quarter of 2009 and 41% higher than the first quarter of 2010. The increase compared with the second quarter of 2009 was primarily attributable to the impact of net provisions for litigation and regulatory proceedings of $615 million in the second quarter of 2010
Nice reading, CV. Hendry is awesome. I'd join him in that short opportunity - if one did exist.
Ben,
Looks like RP's prediction of what to look for at the top of P2 missed the low presidential approval rating criteria by just a few months.
Building permits this month were the builders hope that it picks up. But there are already too many new homes built. That doesn't include the homes in foreclosure, bank owned or shadow inventory. There is no need for new construction at this time.
@ahab
This is all anyone needs to know about "SMART" phones...
- Sitting at a live Baseball Game
- Get punched in the face because you're not paying attention to the LIVE ACTION (because you're text messaging)
- Wake up and "get in the moment" (if only for a brief instant)
- Freak out
- Can think of nothing else to do but TEXT your friends about it...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DwbEnDzoE94&feature=related
@Amen
Some of that housing data was also the "first echo" post April...
More noise...
But there are already too many new homes built.
no doubt Ra- the homebuilder's have been treading water thanks to USG giveaways-
I find it amazing that not one large national builder has gone under
CV @ 9:15-
lmao- you are a funny dude
undoubtedly!
no stopping progress though- the younger generation are all over the smart phones
Put another nail in Canada's real estate bubble. Bank of Canada raised rates another .25% today. For those who participated in the credit orgy of the last 2 years and are only able or willing to make minimum payments - uh oh. 1Q, 2Q, and 3Q '11 should be interesting for these 'safe' and 'conservative' banks earnings and loan loss provisions.
McHappy,
Indeed, re RP, I've seen very few of his socionomic forecasts not come true, it's the timing that's always tricky, overall though.
If he were to wade into the "who is going to win in November" debate it'd be real simple like:
the lower the market goes the more people that are there now that will not be there in November, scientific studies on the front line are showing that the limbic system gets "hi-jacked" when we select leaders...but this is just another area where many still think it's about rational thought....another efficient process that isn't.
I have a plan to help the market and our economy.
When I extend the unemployment benefits, you'll have the choice to buy stocks with the money or pay for health care... it's a win-win situation!
Wasn't TOPSTEP talking about 1050-1048 yesterday?
@Obama
Hell, at this point I may just vote for you in 2012...
You've effectively driven the economy off the cliff and there's no going back now...
So with you in office, at least I'd be treated to your NCAA Tournament "brackets" each March...
You're not too bad at those...
morning! can't catch up! can't wait to watch the hendry post.. 'everyone' has been sending it to me : )
Love the new avatar, CV, as much as your post! Thank you!
Ben, goldbugs say is was price manipulation with held gold down.. FYI!!
Hey!
No fair!!
No overnight tests of the lows!!!
And speaking of lows... major lows...
Watch the 9335 level on YM/DJIA, the 10-02-2009 low... pretty sure thats where we be going.
ahab.. along the lines of your major homebuilder.. i was thinking likewise yesterday with no major high-end retailer going under.. a saks, nm, nordstrom, bloomingdales, barneys..
MrTopStep for President
Anyone else just catch that blast of firepower???
Looked like one of those "dont f*ck with me" messages...
Nic, is that real? is that you? looks as tho you are pulling the plane thru the air!!
Either that or a massive buystop...
Excellent post this morning CV :)
Deflation, baby.
I'm fading that shizz.
Yeah its real. The smoke is not from the engine its a thing they add to make the display more impressive.
Well that was fun...
Guess I'll chill on the intraday talk until things chill out.
I-Man just got played like a fiddle.
Too early...
@Amen
MUST... NOT... LOSE... 10,000...
@Nic
Try doing that with a BROOMSTICK and we'll REALLY be impressed :-)
Nic-
I thought maybe you were on a crop duster-
intriguing though- how did you get into that line of work?
You know... This might be fun and all... But the market might actually be waiting for Thursday to decide what to do...
Wednesday, July 21st
- Baidu
- EBay
- Freeport McMoran
- MS
- Starbucks
- Coca Cola
*MBA Purchase Applications (7:00AM)
*Bernocchio flaps his gums (10:00AM)
Thursday, July 22nd
- MMM
- Amazon
- AMEX
- AT&T
- CAT
- UPS
- UNP
- CAKE
- various pharma
*Jobless Claims (8:30AM)
*More gum flapping by Bernocchio (9:30AM)
*Existing Home Sales (10:00)
*Leading Indicators (10:00AM)
*calendar of 3/6/52 bill & 2/5/7 note announcement
*Fed Balance Sheet (4:30PM)
*Money Supply (4:30PM)
*Lack Thereof (4:30:00.01)
*QE2 - to follow
>> Put another nail in Canada's real estate bubble. Bank of Canada raised rates another .25% today.
They're raising rates *now*? LOL
Or maybe I should've used the word "still" (instead of "now")... Still...
@Wun -"they are raising rates now?
So, they can cut later. Have do something when SHTF.
Vicious market today. This is the deep end.
Acknowledged, Anon. But, they should've been raising like crazy 4-5 years ago to choke off their bubble before it grew as big as it did. If they're still raising now, they're very late to the game. Raising "now" once more, after their housing top is already in, is funny.
EURUSD bounced off the 23.6 retrace of 2008 high to 2010 low at about 1.2858.
Great post CV.
The 23.6 of the 2009 high to the 2010 low is at 1.2688, if this level does not hold.
I-Man.. vicious and stupid.. what could be worse? writhing on nerves with its head severed. darn scary and I can't be the only one wanting less and less to do with it..
I'm ready to retire.
Its hard enough to get on base, let alone make any money when its like this.
WTH??? IBM, TXN, GS and JNJ miss and the market is trying to rally. Housing starts dropped hard and the previous reading is revised lower. Arrgghh!!!
@ Wunsa(10:44).
Minority govt. tried everything in it's power to survive. Tried to ignore higher inflation, bubble etc. Turned surplus into deficit.
Did everything to stay in power. Now, opppsition is astray!
Killed savers in the process.
Anon, that sounds logical...
Housing starts have dropped by roughly 60k since February. That is a 10% drop since February....it doesn't take an Einstein to figure out that the housing bubble is still deflating, and that the Obama administration's incentives on mortgages merely put makeup on the warts. Makeup is gone now, and we all see the warts.....
My point of this is, maybe this actually made the housing crisis worse by doing so. It certainly prolongs the time frame for weakness, and perhaps moves the weakness to the second half of the year instead of the greatest brunt being in the first half, where the economy might have been stronger. In effect, this might have led to a "piling on" that wouldn't have been present early......
..just my 2 cents.
picky-picky-picky
I know what I'm doing, I wont back down. Also, if you take the low SPX of 666 during my rein, the market is up 60%. If you'd like, you and I can grab a beer and talk about it in my back yard.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_1o2wiBm5r_M/TEWam_I_jUI/AAAAAAAABeM/F4SMCFqITGM/s1600/McKinsey+1.png
From Zero Hedge...Analysts are massively wrong on earnings estimates....an amazing chart.
BinT
my early view: Weekly Claims will be > 500k since it has to make up for the holiday week.
Also why did Building Permits increase but lumber continues to decrease?
Permits usually wind up with a lot of duds...Amen you are the pro, and I but a mere financial moron, but I watch the actual starts more than the permits.
"A new survey released by AlixPartners shows that most Americans are a little more optimistic than the Fed. The majority of those surveyed don't expect their quality of life—including their spending levels—to return to pre-recession levels until mid-2013.
While it may seem like good news on the surface that consumers are more optimistic than the Fed, Bryan Eshelman, managing director of the global retail practice at AlixPartners, said the firm's research has found Americans keep pushing that date farther into the future, and consumers tend to be more optimistic than circumstances may dictate.
When the firm polled people last November, respondents expected a return to "normal" by November 2012. Now they're saying not until August 2013.
It will be interesting to see when they do their next survey whether that date gets pushed out even farther.
Still even with a bias toward optimism, the overall results of the survey revealed that Americans have grown more pessimistic. Seven in 10 people feel the same or worse about their personal economic situation than a year ago, when the economy was in the depths of the recession.
About 83 percent of those surveyed expect to spend the same or less on non-essential purchases over the next 12 months.
One reason for that is consumers' continued emphasis on reducing their own personal debt levels and a continued fear of possible job loss. But debt reduction is becoming increasingly important.
In the latest survey, about 20 percent of those surveyed cited debt reduction as their top concern, compared with 18 percent that cited personal debt last Novemeber."
...from CNBC. and no, I was not the one to spell November Novemeber...apparently I am not the only one who can't type...but it looks like deleveraging is on the menu for some time...
This girl made $64 million in the past year???
@karen
A couple more mil & she'll be able to afford a good hairstylist...
@Obama
Since you seem to be a TOM PETTY fan, why don't you toss the following onto your "greatest hits" CD...
- Free Falling
- A Change of Heart
- Don't Do Me Like That
- Hope You Never
- Even The Losers
- Asshole
- Don't Come Around Here No More
this is good:
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) will be suing the Major League Baseball team Texas Rangers for taking over the lease of its Arlington stadium, Rangers Ballpark, before filing for bankruptcy.
Bloomberg reported that JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) is the agent for investors that loaned money to Rangers owner Tom Hick’s company, HSG Sports Group. The report stated that the terms of the loan to HSG involved certain units and affiliates making payments to pay part of the loan if necessary. HSG was obliged to pay the full amount, but the Rangers were only liable for $75 million. Transferring the lease of the stadium from HSG to the Texas Rangers made it more difficult for lenders to recoup the $411 million owed.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) is asking a judge to declare the transfer as null and void because it violated the mortgage of the property. The lease on the stadium is collateral for the loan, according to court documents.
http://www.americanbankingnews.com/2010/07/20/jpmorgan-nyse-jpm-sues-texas-ranges-over-stadium-lease/
"Ben, goldbugs say is was price manipulation with held gold down.. FYI!!"
lol, Karen, then we can conclude the following:
The same people that explain golds fall during M1 explosion, that are now calling for gold to infinity due to "fed printing" will be met with the same manipulation to keep prices down and will all be wrong?
do I have that right?
"Also why did Building Permits increase but lumber continues to decrease?"
Because markets aren't efficient?
Another great chart I viewed last night was the large rise in sentiment during the antrax scares....
quick...find the news to explain that one!
Ben, the physical supply of gold is limited.. once it is bot and held (as a REAL store of value), the paper machinations of gold will have less and less impact.. : )
that is anthrax...
no doubt Karen, but history shows that during deflation collapse what was used as money gained in value, debts, for now, are based in dollars, not gold, so in the near term I think the gold calls are all wrong.
You are correct though, if we looked at REAL money (gold) it'd be pretty easy to see we are well along in our depression, the dow in gold charts certainly reveal as much.
maybe it's an indicator maybe not, but the lows made today under this type of volume would support the idea we still have that last rally leg to deal with....again, why does volume decline like this in a Primary Wave 3?
Loved this Hendry gem:
"His latest obsession is China. He likens the country to Starbucks: good at growing quickly but not so good at creating wealth."
I'd be interested in what TOPSTEP says are the targets in the pits today, but CV thinks the following...
Based on my (10:10) above, it would be hard for me ti imagine the markets catching too much of a bid before Thursday morning...
Most of the data, lately, frankly, stinks...
I doubt Thursday's data will be any better...
But what do you want?
a) A rally to start off of today's lows that carries through Wednesday, then gets torpedoed off of bad news
b) Continued weakness for the rest of today & tomorrow, with the chance of finding a temporary bottom just as the data is released, then an actual rally off of oversold conditions in the face of that data? Which carries through Thursday... Into Friday... and begets yet another round of "short covering" frustration into the weekend?
Just saying...
If equity markets had a theme song, it would probably be something like...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ho1yJwvWCrw&feature=PlayList&p=9A45E1B0D35EAA5A&playnext_from=PL&playnext=1&index=32
I-Man,
China not so good at creating wealth?
Explain.
didn't top step say yesterday most (all?) the action this week would likely come on thursday and Friday?
I bet that holds true.
Not my analogy, DL.
Ask Hugh.
Love it, CV.. didn't know what to expect when i pulled that song up, laughing.. $vix is so so so going nowhere, too. too complacent if you as me!
Ben, I just sent you an ETF Weekly.. wonder if anyone else would be interested.. i'll skim it for tidbits after I wash floors and clean toilets.. anything would be better than watching these ticks.
I like this headline in today’s NY Times:
“Earnings Drop for Goldman as Market Swings Hurt Trading”
http://tinyurl.com/2ade2er
I thought they never lost money on trading.
"...after I wash floors and clean toilets..."
There's a job I'd like to outsource.
Karen,
thanks, I'll take a look.
Even most of the wavers over at Dan's are starting to talk about the positive divergences on the 60 minute charts...
I see that, but here are a few things that bother me:
- Just the IDEAS that I put there in (12:54)
- The fact that, from todays lows, one can sort of count 5 waves up (4 having just completed, and being in 5 now)
- A "correction" off that might take us back down to 1064 at the close
- Which would make todays DAILY candle look like a "morning star" doji...
- For that "morning star" doji to be confirmed, then WEDNESDAY ought to be a big day... Might or might not happen, but it would be premature...
Therefore, I'd opt for CONFUSION...
- Morning star DOJI for today...
- Unconfirmed tomorrow
- Reversal Thursday
Just a wild guess...
alright, my first public rant about EWI.
the new EWT is for July AND August, granted it is 40 pages.... about The Beatles! I pay for market commentary when I purchase the EWT, I already buy The Socionomist, this is bullshit.
and all because they are so confident we are in P3, or that even if we aren't right now that it "will occur eventually"
nah, that's bullshit. I wonder if in my meetings tonight I can say, hey, you guys want to talk about this new album I got and how it relates to social mood, my market calls are eventually going to be right so no need to discuss them in any detail tonight.
They brought me peaches today at the salt mine. Pretty good day so far.
If any of you have a subscription to my newsletter, please feel free to post it here.
MMMMMM... Peach cobbler
I like fresh peach slices in Iced Tea...
@McF
Maybe I should make SURVIVOR CAPITAL a pay site...
The fact that I link MUSIC videos all day long puts me in league with the big dogs...
:-)
CV,
Well, for all my whining, EWT is something like $20 a month, we aren't exactly breaking the bank on this one. But still....from my view we are at a pretty damn critical juncture in stocks right now, one that this group has based all their time and effort for the last decade forecasting, so I was a little suprised at this to say the least.
I recommend that all of you become followers of Bruce’s blog
http://bruceintennessee.blogspot.com/
@McFearless -- re:EWI, my thoughts exactly. Can't believe I actually wasted printer ink -- I pressed print before I looked at it because I thought I wanted to bring it with me somewhere to read. Annoyingly, a bunch of the early Beatles stuff seems to have been "borrowed" from Malcolm Gladwell's "Outliers."
Huh, I get EWT and EWFF, but not STU. I think I pay $87/month. I am totally getting ripped off.
Social Moods:
http://www.suntimes.com/news/24-7/2506292,CST-NWS-graffiti18.article
Market now positive. Vix looking to print a bearish engulfing. Crap.
Jennifer, the $20 is just for EWT every month, we get a ton of stuff from them, the total cost is way more than $20 a month, but I'm just complaining about EWT here.
Cr*p! my sentiments exactly as I just sat back down.. do we really have to revisit yesterday's highs today? as long as we get repelled at 1074 i guess i can live thru it.. again.
Jennifer,
I have Pioneering Studies in Socionomics, most of the Beatles stuff is in there as well, never read Outliers. At quick glance I think a lot of the same charts are as well.
I could not believe it when I saw that there was no, absolutely no, financial information whatsoever, in a 40 page long missive from Prechter. That is bogus. Think I might cancel my subscription. Heck, you can get the gist of most of his important stuff from Yelnick et al anyway.
http://www.youtube.com/user/optionmonstertv#p/a/u/0/wDhyfQJjePQ
CV:
I used to have a blog, not about investing...but didn't have time to plan it and keep it up and also enjoy my time off. My hat is off to you.
I still won't cancel...lol :-)
Jennifer,
The market's going to decline one of these days.
O.K.?
The deer and the young hawk are from the porch. I very much enjoy my house in the country.
I've def. concluded on my own that there is nothing that can wipe out the average persons stock market optimism but something like P3, 2008 didn't even come close. Here is a quote from an e-mail I got from client last Friday as a follow up to our meeting, their YTD return on their accounts through yesterday was 5.72% net of my fees, and while I realize that isn't something to write home about, check out the clients thoughts on it:
As we discussed, we are ok with a slightly more aggressive position in our holdings, to try to make money in a down market.
@McF/Jennifer
You see, the BEATLES stuff in there is just some kind of coded message... To decipher it, you either have to be...
a) John Nash
b) Record it and play it backwards
B in T,
You can post a few pictures now and then.
...and a few diatribes.
Bruce,
awesome picture there, you ever see any peregrine falcons?
Fascinating animals they are....they move in the formation of a logarithmic spiral.
@McF (1:48)
That's why casinos are open 24/7...
They're there to pry the last ever livin' quarter out of a patrons cold dead hands...
For those that don't like the bright lights, there's always SCRATCH OFF lottery tickets...
You know... For the benefit of the "school system" and all...
@I-Man
Havin' fun there pardner?
"That's why casinos are open 24/7"
A buddy of mine has been playing a lot of cards at Del. Park since they got table games a few weeks ago, says it's been packed. He's good at cards, up a few grand since they opened tables here, but he says:
The key after a long night of cards is not hitting the black jack, roulette, or craps table on my way home in the morning....
Ever meet a trader that couldn't be satisfied with profits, just had to get to the next trade and couldn't do it fast enough?
McF @ 1:51
"...they move in the formation of a logarithmic spiral"
Their movements are ripe for fibonacci analysis.
here we go.. wasn't paying attention.. buy faz?
mrtopstep
Chatter the market is rallying on rumor that fed is eliminating 25 bps paid on banking industry's excess reserves r/t @dougkass
Why are we 20 handles off the lows? The bell weathers were WTE (revenues). The European bank stress tests are a farce. Is this a squeeze or a hail mary?
zerohedge
stocks hanging on to any ridiculous rumor i.e. 25 bp cut on reserves which will not happen. In other news, Fed to LBO radioshack
mrtopstep
hell of a buy program here
DL,
In the words of the Barenaked Ladies:
it's all been done
check out or search for the 2000 issue of the Journal of Experimental Biology. In it Vance A. Tucker of Duke goes in to great detail on the Peregrine.
@karen
Yeah - and last Thursday it was rallying, um, what was that again?...
Oh yeah... IMMINENT news announcement by SEC...
This is all just crap to scare short bettors off the tarmac for a few hours and pick up pennies...
apple reports after the bell, perhaps there are just dip buyers thinking they are going to catch a move.
...at this point, it might as well fill that DOUBLE gap in the 1081 region
vix sonar
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wDhyfQJjePQ
topstep
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3UbnXTQt2Rk
Well If you ask me... Now a nice PRICE CHANNEL is almost formed...
LOWS (yesterdays bottom thru todays low)
HIGHS (1099 last Thursday - todays high print)...
So that creepy little DWEEB from "channeling stocks dot com" ought to be able to buy himself a new Maserati or something...
Mr Topstep:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3UbnXTQt2Rk
Textbook AB=CD pattern from yesterdays high before the close.
The recent high we just made exceeded the target by only 8 pts on YM.
alaidi
RT @HamzeiAnalytics: chatter that Fed going to stop paying interest on bank reserves to spur lending by our HFT chatroom $$
There is kind of an EXPANDING WEDGE, starting from yesterdays morning high (to todays high), and yesterdays morning low (to todays low)...
I'm not very schooled on the nature of EXPANDING WEDGE patterns... Anybody have any ideas?
Vix sonar report, expiration tomorrow:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wDhyfQJjePQ
lol, anyone that thinks that if the Fed stoped paying interest on reserves that they would immediately lend them out is a fool to the extreme, imo, but ....lets just let it play out and see what happens.
I'm literally laughing right now.
i'm glad you are laughing Ben cuz i'm throwing up!
I.L.L.R.N.
Karen,
do you know a lot of people dying to borrow?
I can only think of one group, they all happen to work in DC.
Ben, technically, you need a job to borrow money..
the whole idea is so dumb....look, we all saw what the banks did with their trading skillz in Q1, if they are so damn good you think they care about interest on reserves? As if that is what is making them hoard all the cash right now
blahahahahahahaha
come on, this is right up there with the secret devaluation meeting talk last fall, the countdown to dollar implosion
gnomes and such
not to mention, leave it to the guy that was pounding the table that the "bottom is in for the year" to grasp at some crap like this to explain the market rallying....monkey.
here is another one from Kass' twitter feed, drink it up bitchez:
Spain's Salgado saying all Spanish banks have passed stress test, should weigh positively on equities now $$
about 4 hours ago via TweetDeck
and then there's this:
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10808694/1/kass-a-correction-is-in-the-cards.html
there are a few models for pundits:
1. Make whatever call you want, stick with it, don't care what anyone else thinks.
2. Make so many calls nobody knows what you are actually trying to call for, or at what degree of trend.
3. Make calls that are so ambiguous that nobody will ever be able to say you were wrong.
CV
Bulkowski is the man:
http://thepatternsite.com/EWRevSymmetrical.html
I personally hope this now tightens up into a symmetrical diamond, very rare, but very reliable and you can project targets that work very well.
Make calls that are so ambiguous that nobody will ever be able to say you were wrong.
Yes.
Ben,
Sorry, people in the mine.
Yes, there is a hike in the Smokies that goes to a nesting area for Peregrine falcons...when I get the time, I'll change my avatar..although I don't have any closeups of the falcons themselves. You can see them for miles.
Nic,
thanks for reminding me about his site, I meant to look at it before when the H&S was in play to see his probability rating on there, so much great data on that site.
Bruce,
Last summer one landed in the tree right outside the windows in the my office, was pretty cool since I was so close to it.
the bird said pHI to me and flew away....
I'll be here all week folks....
here's a novel idea on what to do with the cash reserves...
- Start a new entity (a bank holding company)
- Lend it the money
- Buy CDS on that going into default
- With the bank holding company, finance political campaigns, offer the politicians sweet deals on helocs & refi's, and loan out the rest to the districts with the WORST FICO scores
- Package a few of those loans and pawn them off to GSE's
- Wait and watch for the whole thing to blow up
- Collect on the CDS contracts
- When the "outrage" occurs in the districts affected by the delinquent loans, round up the politicians into a hearing room and stage a kangaroo court
- Pass some law that BAILS OUT the holding company using the broad taxpayer base...
- Blame it all on Bush
- Toast your success
Oh wait... We've already done that?
Meh... it was two years ago, everyone has forgotten by now... Time for round two...
McF
I have Bulkowski's pattern book if you want. It is big. I can get your email from the I.
hahaha
zerohedge - market now surging on rumor the original rumor is false.
CV,
We can't even be honest about the discussion on reserves until we start admitting that those too, are credit.
I mean, where the hell do people think that "money" came from?
@Nic (2:30)
Thanks for that...
What's NOTEWORTHY, if this is an EXPANDING WEDGE in a bear, is that the starting point is around the 1064 level (or somewhere between 1062 and 1072 in a broader sense)...
That is exactly the zone that the market collapsed on 6/29, then regained and ran to 1099 most recently...
Each time, there were 6-7 days spent above & below that line...
If the pattern holds, it could be pointing the way to the eventual end of this [ii] or C wave...
I'm not saying his count is even right, but 1 hour ago this Fed rumor seemed to have come out and that's when Douglas put his tweets out, I'm pretty good at math so I can figure out that about one hour ago was roughly quarter to two on the east coast (complex)
Daneric said this 10:20:
Update 10:20AM: An important juncture has been reached. The market needs to hold today's low support or it has the potential of tumbling down much harder. There is a double positive divergence on this hourly RSI which suggests a move to 1080-1084 range is coming. But if this is Minor 3 down, the power of the bear should in theory be capable of wiping that out. But for now the divergence and wave structure appears
to be a subwave ii at least.
seriously I'm still laughing, people are more desperate than ever to find the news that's "moving markets"
and Nic, thanks also for that link from Bulkowski...we heart fractals in DE.
Interesting that we are now positive...I think we see an increase in Unemployment Thursday...
It might not be a bad idea to consider that today is 20 candles from the 1131 that we hit on the Monday after opex Friday in June...
and... That todays low was at the 61.8% differential between 1131 and 1010...
simple but good:
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/color-chart-and-major-support-line-to-watch-in-gold/
Well, I am finished in the salt mine. Gotta go to a conference this afternoon in another city, so I'll sign off in a few minutes.
Ben, this is one of the things I do on the weekends.
Bruce,
pretty cool. Sounds like you are really in a nice area, I'd love to move (back) to the country at some point in the not too distant future. I did indoor rock climbing in Pittsburgh many years ago at a place called Climb North. My arms felt like jelly for about a week and half after that, I realized late in the day when I was there the key is using your legs.
I have a partially torn ACL in my left knee so I'm more the golf type these days...
BreakingNews
Bill to restore unemployment benefits for long-term jobless clears Senate GOP filibuster; bill vote may be tonight http://bit.ly/dpBr4P
Karen,
I guess they got the guy in WV sworn in quick for that then?
I have a partially torn ACL in my brain so I'm more the golf type these days too.
number wise i feel the spx is lagging cuz it hasn't pushed over 1080, but % wise spx is the leader with compq lagging..
BinT
Love your pic too
Nic,
have a question, you are in contact with some hedge funds yes?
do you know what the smallest one was when it started and roughly what they might payin compliance costs each year?
just curious, always new ideas.
the 10 min of $spx, $indu, and $compq are identical.. along with ever other ticker that is not a short etf...
CV dipped a toe and shorted 1080
Obama,
If only I had enough time to golf as you do, I'd likely be playing on the Nike Tour at minimum. Just not able to play as much as you though, what with my JOB and all.
1080 seems pivotal to me.. but is it the launch pad or trap door?? flip a coin.
video, Todd Harrison is the man:
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/todd-harrison-it's-time-to-'short'-american-icons-522746.html?tickers=nke,gs,skf,xlf,mco,brk-b&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=
i am offically crabby now.
I heard that....
I don't exist anymore... It's the Nationwide tour...
But I think Obama is gunning for the HOOTERS Tour
See now, I'm so busy working I can't even keep up with the tours.
Ben,
Usually included / provided with specialty lawyer who drafts plan and sets up legal entities and offering documents and acts as consultant. Takes 60-90 days and costs $5-15K
well, soon enough it is do or die time for P3 count...I think we'll see if it breaks above what is being labeled by some as 1 of 3 this week...
since my spy target was 106, why didn't i cover there this morning? who knows where we are going now.. 1090 minimum..
thanks nic, that's similar to start up legal costs of becoming an RIA.
Karen, I think you can count five waves off today's lows, as I've said though, I'm not great on the super short term stuff, but you can see it there for sure. would lead me to believe 1090 is most certainly in the cards.
Danny (TOPSTEP) sure had it wrong today...
he was right there in the pits, and at noon was saying it was highly doubtful to get past 1070...
I'd rather just get to aapl's earnings at this point.
Michigan Says Enough To Fed: Takes Matters Into Own Hands As It Starts Using Own Currency...And Gold
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/michigan-says-enough-fed-takes-matters-own-hands-it-starts-using-own-currencyand-gold
CV,
we knew they'd be wrong eventually, I haven't seen those guys screw too much up.
on another note,....some huge astro stuff coming up in the next two weeks.
I posted a link on that the other day...it's not just Michigan....
17 min to go.. anything can happen, laughing..
@karen
I'm still holding on to the expanding wedge theory...
If I'm right, we'll see 1048 within the week, I think...
laughing too
yeah, I think based on the charts we are going higher the next few days,..... tomorrow though, you'll hear it's all b/c of aapl earnings.
but I'm in the no double dip camp and I'm cautiously optimistic that we'll skate through the soft patch after our sugar high during the new normal. these crazy random markets just aren't fair, we need a czar.
whats that about authoritarianism?
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/07/wapo-top-secret-america/
yeah, there's no merit to socionomics or anything...
I think we have one more dip down possibly too CV. it is the time of year for max pain.
Don't be crabby Karen, you look so lovely in your pic.
Nic, that is sweet of you to say, so you cheered me from crabby to pensive.
Had to just tune everything out and throw on some classical.
Straight killed it this afternoon. Got murdered this morning tho, so kinda mutes it.
What was the fuss about? Didnt see any news... other than some chick cryin on Mrs I's "Bachelorette" program.
I'll report back how this goes tonight, a preview:
I went long the dollar for this client on 11/2/09, sold entire position on 5/26 of this year after calling him to say a correction would happen soon.
I'd say the odds are 50/50 the client still "wanted more", but we'll see. I had them positioned with some shorts too early this year and that wasn't right, then they were heavy weight into fixed income on top of the dollar, we'll see how much focus that early short gets compared to the others.
Greed is an amazing thing.
@Nic
VIX options close at the open tomorrow...
The futures were not in line with the cash, which, due to the need to get square by tomorrow morning, propelled the late day rally...
We ought to see by tomorrow which case is true...
Anyone watching the AAPL show?
I,
there was no news worth anything....that crying on that show was likely just as valuable.
We're
keeping
an
eye
on
this
blog
.
Bah humbug :-)
I-man, can't see any news yet but down big in AH just now..
oh, this should help BP shares.. no wonder crude was up today:
BP selling $7 bln in oil and gas assets to Apache
07/20/2010 04:24:13 PM
I-Man.. aapl jumping all over the place.. down 4+ than up some change.
Just look back to end of May and early June, we are in an ugly chop zone and could be here a while. We will either close above 1100 S&P and make new highs or we will close below 1040 and make new lows.
Guys, the indices are leading us higher tonight.
:)
now up 8 pts plus
Nic @ 4:30.. I could not agree more.. and am now crabby, again.
All jokes aside, it did feel like a temporary bottom went in place today. Could see 1180 on ES by mid August, but 1150 would be a more conservative target. Shit tends to extend tho.
Whats that yall wave folks say about 3 waves down?
What was it that jennifer was saying last week...
Fade the first 60+ RSI on the hourly charts post opex week?
Well folks... Guess where we'll open RSI wise tomorrow morning?
So when Bernocchio goes to Capitol Hill tomorrow, do you suppose he's going to nod in agreement with all the lawmakers thinking we need a huge QE2 outlay or else people might stop buying iPads?
can't get QE2 w/o market crashes...
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