STRESS TESTS - Yeah! Nailed that baby!
UNEMPLOYMENT CHECKS just keep coming!
NO HANDCUFFS - EVER (You just get your limo privileges suspended for 3 days)
GOLDMAN HASN'T ISSUED a LONG EURO CALL YET
BONNIE LIES OVER THE OCEAN - CLYDE TO FOLLOW
(Maybe it's a meteorological phenomenon)
Really people - I don't know... As far as CV can tell, Johnny Long seemingly wants in this market, for now... (and he's got a wad of cash to blow)...
Perhaps, though, looking to the future, he might not be all that interested in crude...
Oil Futures Exodus Biggest Since Lehman Demise: Energy Markets
Lehman? Does 2008 ring any bells? Remember HOPE & CHANGE?
Here's the HOPE part
Here's the CHANGE part
Americans are conducting STRESS TESTS of their own these days...
and this ain't helping
I guess it depends on who's responsible for ADMINISTRATION of the test
Why is CV the only one talking about this expanding wedge?
All I hear about are ABC's... Fine - I can see the ABC's, but what about the wedge (which has an epicenter at 1065 by the way - and is on the same vector of the 1010 lows)?...
196 comments:
Nice post, CV.
Futures are edging higher - again. Will 1097.50, 1098.66, 1099.08, or 1099.46 be taken out today?
They'll probably let some small banks fail the tests to try and show that the tests are creditable.
great post CV
the weatherman better be thankful he never ran into Bonnie however-
http://www.theswellelife.com/.a/6a00e54ef168098833010536c728c1970b-800wi
Faye Dunaway- I always liked her looks- sexy
tell them Johnny Wadd is here!
classic 70's-
didn't Val Kilmer play him in a movie?
My wife was mentioning the past decades when it seemed that the United Auto Workers were striking some manufacturing arm of the big 3 every year. And every year the CEO would finally give in to most of the demands, and wages went up. Now, however, not so much....
I am wondering after reading through the news this morning if most of the US is now like the big 3. I see more news about how communities can't pay their bills, and about pension costs..and so forth..
The analogy seems pretty firm, and I think no matter what the markets are saying this week, that we have more troubles ahead in the amount of money needed to keep the machine going.
Trichet says tighten now...Bernanke says don't stop the stimulus.
...only The Shadow knows~....
Nice post CV!
More observations I've seen on the "18" number and I have no idea where the markets will be next week. And it just happens that...
chart
(check the inspect button and it'll show the dates/prices for 2008 when you click on that week)
15 Sep, 2008 SPX low was 1133.50 (1134)
29 Sep, 2008 SPX low was 1098.14 (1098)
06 Oct, 2008 SPX high was 1097.56 (1098)
13 Oct, 2008 SPX high was 1044.31 (1044)
Seems back then we blew right through those levels (1134-1044) to the downside, now, it seems we're in a trading range between those levels... go figure.
Sum it up, I seriously doubt well see 1134 soon, may stay in this trading range for a bit but a breakdown below 1044 again will set the trip to sub 1000, maybe 990, which happens to be a "fib 18", (18 X 55). Ok, so I'm making this fib 18 shit up as I go along but I can guess with the best of them!... LOL
Gotta go clock in and make widgets...
18
Morning! hope CV had as much fun putting this morning's audibles together as I did going thru it! Rather a slow beginning to the day..
I think, too, unlike most of the sentiment, that the DOW could make it back to 14k range. But not the stock market in general, especially for the smaller companies.
I see where more and more of the large multinational companies are making more and more of their profit overseas. If an oil company decides wages and taxes are too onerous, they can move to Dubai. If PandG feels they are making the greatest amount of profit from Asia, they can move to Singapore or someplace else closer to their profit centers.
But small companies and taxpayers are stuck within the US boundaries, and I don't see that being all that hopeful.
If citizens think jobs are more plentiful in Texas than Michigan, they move. Japanese companies are moving their citizens to China. We will soon follow, for that may be one way to help chronic unemployment here without our manufacturing base.
...Just some stray thoughts..
I still cannot fathom this.. especially in light of the Mack video yesterday:
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Treasury Department said it will sell 1.5 billion shares of Citigroup stock over the next two months, the latest effort to recoup money from the government's $700 billion financial bailout.
The third phase of Citigroup stock sales will begin immediately and end by Sept. 30, Treasury said Friday. The government has already sold 2.6 billion shares for $10.5 billion.
Citigroup received $45 billion in taxpayer support in one of the largest bank rescues by the government. Of the $45 billion, $25 billion was converted to a government-ownership stake. The government is now selling that off. The bank repaid the other $20 billion last December.
MUST...FORCE...SHORT...SQUEEZE...B4...STRESS...TEST...RESULTS
RESULTS
@karen
I guess Johnny Wadd is going to come in and buy those shares...
While he's at it, he's going to take down $200 billion in bills & bonds next...
Johnny Wadd is THE MAN!
Pork Bellies... I knew it!
You might want to put your shorts on today!
:)
" it has now been confirmed that banks will only be tested for sovereign debt exposure just on trading books, not on debt held to maturity. Guess what: about a month ago, all banks almost certainly decided to quietly reclassify their hundreds of billions of sovereign exposure from "trading" to "held to maturity," thus taking advantage of the same FASB 157 accounting abortion that America has gripped tightly on to for almost two years now"
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/confirmation-only-sovereign-bond-losses-trading-books-will-be-considered-validates-stress-te
I just read that. The other main point was that if the results are to be WTE then they would release them while the European markets are open.
Unless they told everyone to short the US markets to raise collateral.
Hiking all day today, guys, leaving in a few minutes.
I also noted that now, months later, Moody's is threatening to downgrade Hungary's debt...
Do the rating agencies even matter any more?
BinT
RST down 16% and the COO has resigned...how are we all going to learn Chinese for our new jobs?
@Bruce
U donna needa runrna rangrage...
Just practice jumping out of buildings...
@Bruce, Whose fault is it? People having to move where the jobs are. Greedy WallStreeters moving to Asia to save on labour costs. Who were their customers? If people donot have jobs in the U.S. who will buy their stuff?
Very poor planning. The U.S. and other western countries could have let in more immigrants( as in Australia and Canada) to increase population and future demand.
People moving to China/India? Hell holes!
from Canada(India).
Epic compilation there, cv. Thanks for the laugh (or several). Wow.
I especially LOVE the "I did nothing and still got paid" Dilbert comic. That is hysterical.
"buy now or be priced out forever" where have I heard that before :)
Sorry wasn't around yesterday, didn't have the energy. I have decided today will be a better day, mind over matter. Thanks Karen for the pep.
Everyone ready for the post-stress-test-euphoria-rally next week? :)
"Greedy WallStreeters moving to Asia to save on labour costs"
How bout those greedy car companies, or those greedy ag companies, or those greedy consumer goods companies, or those greedy energy companies, or those greedy clothing companies, or those greedy steel companies, or those greedy...yeah, basically every industry. Oh, and if you listen to say, ole Benny in Israel, we outsource our govt decisions as well.
perhaps this won't win me any points, but for profit companies need to do what it takes to make a profit....if that sounds harsh, it's because life is harsh.
Nic! great attitude! Let's all try to have some fun today.. create some positive energy : ) Coffee, shower.. I am already on my way to something better than yesterday.
Kenny has a nice chart of the micro "ABC" pattern he's looking for (which is practically what every EWI-er is looking for)...
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_goypolxEFd4/TElKEHh39sI/AAAAAAAAGuE/cQOjqNf2YQE/s1600/SPX15min.png
CV wants to know why nobody is ALSO talking about a curious little expanding wedge (that I've been harping on for several days now, and is still in tact)...
NEW CHART IN THREAD
This also ties into the theme of:
- VIX maintaining support of 144MA
- Euro move possibly complete
- 10yy not confirming pricing in equities
I'll keep saying this until I get a NON-CONFIRMATION of some of those elements...
I want to see the following today:
another attack on the 1,100 line
a potential to see if a dow theory buy confirmation can take place
if we break 1,100 want to see if that 1108 gap can get closed
what I don't want to see is some bullshit after the stress test comes out where we sit on the 1070 support area again, or even worse, we drop big and sit right on the 1040 area again, lets get a little action already!
CV,
while the VIX holds the 144, we could also point out it's basically been in a downtrend during this yes? It would seem on those VIX updates that people out there are pushing hard in the pits for lower volatility a month out. Perhaps we set up for them to get squashed, we need that VIX to break-out.
@McF
If you use 3lb monthly as your guide on that, the VIX has been spiking in the last few days of the month...
It happened post 4/26, then in the 2nd half of May, & 2nd half of June...
Perhaps we wait until the last minute again, but I think those VIX put buyers are going to get crushed...
Next week - $200 billion in Treasury paper has to roll...
This is a sobering piece on Spain's woes. Global stupidity.
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/business/july-dec10/makingsense_07-22.html
C,
couldn't your pattern "break-out" in either direction?
neat chart, CV..
why can't the government make all the funds whole again? i mean, if they can shore up C with 45B no problem.. it would be an instant boon for the IBs, a backdoor bailout.. and the pensioners would be happy, too.
Friday, July 23rd, 2010, 9:41 am
New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli is suing Bank of America (BAC: 13.6091 -0.37%) and Merrill Lynch over losses related to subprime mortgage investments.
The separate lawsuits against each company allege the firms violated securities laws. DiNapoli took the action as trustee of the $132.6bn New York State Common Retirement Fund, which sustained losses on investments related to subprime mortgages.
http://www.housingwire.com/2010/07/23/new-york-sues-bofa-merrill-lynch-over-subprime-investments
Ben, no, it cannot break out in either direction because this is not a typical recovery!!!
lol Karen, ok, so down....weeeeeeeee!
I don't know though, I'm not going to trade again today, if I wanted to be a swinger I'd probably be long right now....dont' throw anything at me!
my $spx wedge
@Ben
It could... But that's what I'm saying...
When I looked it up on the PATTERN reference, it basically said that these expanding waves tend to work themselves along in ABC-ABC type waves...
If Kenny's chart was right, then this is either a C or a 3 (off this mornings lows) if it's going to end up being a 5 wave)...
That didn't look like much of a 3 move to me (1087-1096)...
Which leads me to believe it's a C...
And if it's a C, it should finish in line with the expanding wedge, and not break out...
A breakout would likely only occur with a 3...
I-Man probably is long! (thankful LB isn't here to twist that around : )
you guys and your wedgies
alright I'll have to look at Kenny's chart, be back in a few minutes
my wedge is between the 50 (blue) and 100 (red) ma lines if you need help..
@McF
Now- based on the drawing, there's room for a move to 1107 or so (or even beyond if it passed on into Monday)...
But I think probability suggests that the market isn't going to explode higher...
This is EXACTLY the same way we were at 1010...
Everybody (including myself) waiting for the bottom to fall out, and it never did...
It kind of amazes me (reading Dan's commentators), how many are actually playing a little LONG here...
FOR what? 10 spoo points?
I'd rather be short & wait...
It's probably like all those clients you see that all just think you can time everything perfect, that you have that "secret sauce"...
Yeah Brian, get me in, book me some profits, then get me out...
Ha!... This market will f*** with all those people sucking a few extra drops and flash crash...
well, I'm not doing it, however, if you are a trader, there is nothing wrong with trying to go after 10 points and then sell right into it if you are so inclined
I mean, there are plenty of pivots right now that could serve as good stops where you are risking a few points to the downside for 10 points or more of upside
maybe Kenny's count is correct, I'm not going to pretend like I know the top count on that small a time frame, I don't. we'll see over the next few hours.
I hear you though on Dan's board, i skip most of the comments over there, but there are a handful of posters that provide charts like max that are always worth taking a look at, I don't care about anybody's trading calls on his board though, he gets ton of swing traders and so does kenny, some of time frames I'll hold on to things would make most of them have a heart attack.
@McF
I'm not trying to count mini-waves either...
Hell, I don't even know how to count waves to begin with (nor do I trade them)...
Larger waves are easier to spot, and so I tend to be patient and wait for those...
Anyway... I stick to a theory until it's broken, and I've been observing this expanding wedge for 6 days now (and it has not been busted yet)...
I'm thinking that the next LARGE move should be down in an ABC type fashion... Depending on the duration, it should take us right back down to 1010... The longer it takes to start making that move, the farther it will fall...
I actually think the break above 1,100 is what would hurt the most people at this point, not so much the break itself, but how people react to it, lotsa people going to see that as bullish
@McF
I'm counting on that to happen...
My whole point is though, I think it will be a classic bulltrap...
Ben @ 11:30.. you are right.. even I would see it as bullish : )
I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen very late in the day today...
If you see that break, many shorts would cover expecting to get murdered on Monday morning...
There would be nothing but air under the market...
ABC-ish down? First stop might be 1065...
man, reading the comments in the global warming thread at BR's was pure entertainment.
Friday, July 23rd, 2010, 10:34 am
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) addressed industry concerns that the Dodd-Frank financial reform act signed this week by President Barack Obama could have the unintended consequence of freezing new asset-backed securities (ABS) issuance.
http://www.housingwire.com/2010/07/23/sec-moves-to-block-new-asset-backed-securities-issuance-flash-freeze
I think it's fair to say the "net" would see it as bullish, especially after it's been rejected a few times.
That could trace out a really nice right shoulder, and man, lets not forget about that huge H&S that started back in the 90's, that is still very much alive and it's a monster.
I don't want to say I'm an expert on the FinReg, but, from what I've seen so far, it's as Prechter said it would be, it's deflationary, and the politicians don't even realise it.
I think in the fullness of time Obama is in deep shit for saying it stopped any future bailouts...but hey, they were able to sell all that Citi at the highest possible price last time around....
I-man
Dow has 60min gartley and two equal moves off Tuesdays low. could correct 50%back here
ECRI -10.5
Baseball fans will enjoy the new NLY blog post:
http://annaly.com/blog/2010/07/23/AMidSummersReflectionByMikeFarrell.aspx
McF @ 11:40
Deep shit?
The next big bank bailout won't happen until after November 2012.
(JMHO).
gee, thanks DL.
@DL: Like the Bush admin, I think that's their HOPE but I'm not sure they can control it that precisely. The Bush admin almost did, but couldn't quite get there. I think the events will control them more than you think.
Trichet's article entitled:
"Stimulate no more – it is now time for all to tighten"
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1b3ae97e-95c6-11df-b5ad-00144feab49a.html
and btw, if that's the case, Obama would likely be in office then yes?
see: in the fullness of time
Mannwich @ 11:48
Yeah, if the financial collapse had been put off a year or two, the 2008 election would have turned out quite differently.
Exactly, DL, although the O-man could have squeaked out a closer victory, I think. The can almost got kicked far enough for the elections but not quite. They'll TRY to do the same, as always, but events control them (and us) more than they control events.
McFearless @ 11:48
If Mr. "O" does get a second term, and if we have another bank collapse during that second term then yes, we're likely to see record low approval ratings.
perhaps in the sense that Obama would not be president but I find it unlikely a dem would have lost, bush was hated long before the financial collapse.
@McF @karen
different perspective of same hourly charts...
NEW CHART IN THREAD
Mannwich,
Don't you run a small business, and did you hear that in the Obamacare legislation there's a requirement for all businesses to report all transactions of $600 or more?
McF @ 11:53
Yes, Bush was hated, but there's also all the House races to consider (back in 2008).
C,
did you do the blue triangle yourself or was that program generated?
As soon as the banksters realized they were in deep shit, they poured all their money into the Obama campaign because they knew he was just the kind of sock puppet they could control...
@McF
I did it by hand...
you think you were a little liberal at all with the top line of it?
not trying to be a pain in the ass, seriously, but I'm really particular if I chart something out and put money on it.
@McF
Which line are you referring to? the leading diagonal?
Answer: NO - Because I'm connecting 60 minute candles (it's probably hard to see the top of the 1131 candle in the JPG)...
2nd - I'm not asking anybody to put money on anything...
This blog discusses things, it DOES NOT give stock tips...
C,
yeah, that's what I meant, I couldn't see the very top.
lol, dude, you don't need to worry about me and the whole stock tip thing
@McF
If you'd like, I'll put up a cleaner one, with no other lines, that shows where the tangent is at the (1131.23) candle...
Then you'd see why it doesn't APPEAR to be attached...
It's actually quite precise...
When I say (by hand)... I mean I'm drawing precisely straight lines with computer graphics...
no man that's ok, I can tell what you are doing there, I looked at it for a while.
Hey Ben, just got a commentary from my MS friend on that Mack video.. apparently he wasn't as impressed as we were! "Thanks. I've seen a clip of this before but never the whole thing. Good insight on the events but I'm still not much of a Mack fan as the share price on his watch has been a disaster. I also felt he had a golden opportunity to make an impression on the Wharton students regarding "leadership" and the only memorable statement was that he told Tim Geitner to go %$#@ himself."
gotta go for a couple of hours...be back later.
@McF
Trust me... the line is precise...
I put in a cleaner chart... The horizontal tangent is 1131.23 on the dot...
lol, Karen, I guess if I worked there I might feel different, I know an advisor that moved his book there and got a fat $2 mil up front for it in 2007....in stock that is.....doh!
hey, before I go, buy this dip here, lol
The two minutes are about as reliable as an ED penis.... however with that said, I can see a clean 5 wave up to end at 1097.74.... however, with that said, I've seen this frequently the last couple of days.
I can't see anything other than our typical melt up at the close..
xrt makes no sense.. how can it be back where it was in 06 and 07 when people were spending their home equity like there was no tomorrow.
hehe Karen... you said melt up
Hey Sponge Bob,
"Melt-up", not sop-up
i will consult the etf bible but a quick google revealed scc..
Karen (a.k.a. "smooth buns"),
Did you get your free iphone case from Steve?
szk and scc are it i guess for shorting consumer goods and services..
This is like standing outside of a topless bar pacing up and down the street deciding on whether to go in or not...
You "inner self" ALREADY KNOWS you're going to go in (but on the surface, your mind is telling you that you haven't made up your mind yet - It's allowing you to experience the excruciating agony of that decision)...
I mean, if you were NEVER going to go in the first place, you'd have just walked on by, never thought about it, and wouldn't be here trying to make a DECISION in the first place...
Oh you'll go in all right...
Look at a few tassles, get all giddy and have a beer... Then leave...
how many bills will you leave behind tucked into g-strings tho'?
@72bat
Ask the "longs"... not me...
@ DL
Would Karen look good in square pants?
Karen?
Have to throw my 2 centavos in the ring on the Mack video: I'm curious to understand exactly what "leadership" he demonstrates. He had an opportunity to be a leader, a steward, before embarking on the same high risk decisions as his peers. Where was his concern for his 45,000 employees when he made those decisions? Where was his humility, or his boldness then? I have a hard time being sympathetic to his case. Unfortunately, he paid a small price for his ambitious recklessness. His employees and his stockholders and taxpayers are left to admire his "leadership" and pay the bill.
volume on szk is just over 1k.. no thank you on that..
DL, my son has the new 4.. he said he would apply for one. i will follow up on that! He loves it, tho.. i know that.
@CV
Put some shorts on,
go out and play,
you'll be glad you did,
you know you wanna :)
didn't purcell have much more to do with MS, Mack became CEO in mid 2005, not defending the guy, just saying the bulk of the crap may not have come under his watch
Short Crone.. agree with your point but Mack wasn't a Fuld, Thain, Cayne or even Blankfein.. They were all drinking their own special brand of Kool Aid, however. Seems like they went after each other when sh*t hit the fan.. the point for me is that he made a stand. I've stated over the years that I do not think the IBs or Bank Holding Companies or Private Equity Companies should be publicly traded.. that was square one in the beginning of the financial scam.
Alright...
Since we're all bored out of our minds right now...
CV might as well start doing the FANTASY FOOTBALL 2010 roundup...
Last year we had a league of 10... But I want to go 12 this year...
Automatically, the following are invited:
Andy T
Ben
Manny
Ahab
Mutt
CV
even the Great CNBC Sucks (since he placed high in the rankings)
I-Man didn't get in last year, but he has a preinvitation this year
So I'd be looking to fill somewhere around 4-5 spots...
BTW, i do not understand a single one of SpongeBob's comments.
I don't follow football all that closely.
BTW...
Today is 55 days past flash crash
I just mis-texted someone.. I hate it when i do that!
Oops, get ready, I think my top is coming into view again!
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/focusing-on-the-short-term-trading-range-in-sp500/
I hope we get a Topstep today.. yesterday was torture : ) 1101 is my real top but whatever.
spy tagged 110.20, fifth tap in two weeks.. so it should break to the upside.
A few Democrats in Congress have come out in favor of extending the "Bush tax cuts" for another year.
That would produce a market rally of some significance, were it to actually happen.
@DL
I disagree...
The only reason DEMS may be talking about that is because the GOP was pointing the finger at UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS and the $34 billion price tag to extend those until November 30th...
GOP points to Dems and says "look it's unfunded"
DEMS point to Bush tax cuts "look it's unfunded"
so the consensus is, as always in Washington?
spend the money with one hand and point the finger with the other...
It's a canard...
Regarding 1100...
I'd rather think that if bulls were so enthusiastic here, they'd have blown right through it and put it ASAP in the rearview mirror...
All I see so far are more bearish divergences on more 10/15/30 & 60 min charts...
Color me unimpressed...
So far, the dancer with the tassels needs to drop a few pounds...
"spend the money with one hand and point the finger with the other".
That's certainly true
DL, you would think that extending the tax cuts would incite a rally.. but what if it produced the opposite effect? it's not the news but the reaction to it that can be unexpected : )
They're trying to convince the sideliners to ride the bull after breaking through 1100. Would you want to hold over a weekend post Euro stres tests? Especially since there was no sovereign debt risk used in the evaluation.
Naturally this infuriates me:
Friday, July 23rd, 2010, 12:33 pm
The Federal Reserve, which responded to the financial crisis with unprecedented monetary policy, is off to a slow start in settling mortgage assets it bought from government-sponsored enterprises, according to Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (FRBC) vice presidents John Carlson and Joseph Haubrich and research assistant John Linder.
Forget the target range for the federal funds rate as the Fed's primary weapon; the Fed's balance sheet became a "crucial" policy tool in managing the latest crisis, they wrote in commentary today. Before the Fed had reduced the rate effectively to zero — or 0-0.25% to be precise — it launched a series of large-scale asset purchase programs.
In November 2008, the Fed announced its $500m mortgage-backed securities (MBS) purchase program, which was expanded to $1.25trn in March 2009. The Fed bought agency MBS and debt securities from Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and Ginnie Mae.
http://www.housingwire.com/2010/07/23/fed-off-to-slow-start-unwinding-billions-in-mortgage-assets
@DL
Besides... Strategically, it's too early to start with that kind of talk...
I mean, what IF the GOP wins back a majority (then all of a sudden you have a bunch of DEMS who have committed IN WORDS to extending the tax cuts)?
Next thing you know... It might happen...
O wouldn't be too pleased with that...
Anybody will say ANYTHING at this point to keep votes in their pocket...
And the market isn't going to make any bets on anything until it's in the bag...
These words now are simply a trial balloon to what's going to have to happen on November 30th when they vote on extending unemployment benefits again...
Besides, a NEW Congress wouldn't take their seats until January...
You think THIS Congress is going to jump out ahead of any decision like that?
The WH can't even come out with a BUDGET for crying out loud!
Up, up and awwaaaay, my beautiful, my beautiful bA-llooooooonnnnnnnn!!
Count me again on on fantasy football, cv.
I get these horrible tweets from BreakingNews.. plane, car, bus, train accidents.. people dying right and left.. i can't even read them anymore.
FWIW
CV's EXPANDING WEDGE is still valid...
and the move above last weeks highs confirmed bearish divergence (RSI) on the same 60 min charts...
"And the market isn't going to make any bets on anything until it's in the bag"
. . . . . . . . . .
Well, that's the thing. The well-connected hedgies are always the first to know. J6P doesn't find out about it until the market has had a chance to react.
@karen
"Then the bubble headed bleach blonde comes on at 5...
She can tell you bout the plane crash with a gleam in her eye..."
Corey doesn't know about your wedge CV.
@DL
Too many moving parts on that one...
Especially on something that would likely come down to a vote or two...
@karen
Eyeballing it, my wedge is still valid up until around 1108 or so today...
And probably around 1116 on Monday...
@Manny (1:53)
OK
There goes the dollar.. FXP at low of day, too.
@DL
I will agree with you that were such a measure to be passed, that it would be BULLISH for the markets...
But I can't say it would overall alter the MOST MAJOR trend...
And frankly... We're already past mid-year...
I think a lot of the LARGER decisions that need to be made with respect to tax ramifications on cashing out portfolios are already in the process of being made...
Case in point...
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/ICI%207.22.jpg
Low on the day (VIX) was 23.34...
Pretty much held the 144sma line... again...
Where's the 10yy blowing out past the 3 handle?
I see the $RUT doing fine...
SPX keeps making new highs but not the TICKS. The TRIN is still bordering on late day selloff.
SPX is just getting pulled along by #'s 299-500
"The Economic Cycle Research Institute released its Weekly Leading Indices for the week ending July 16. The latest reading shows no sign of letting up and is now in negative double digit territory. While the Weekly Leading Index 120.7 is unchanged from a revised prior week reading, the Weekly Growth Rate Index came in at -10.5 percent from a downward revised reading of -9.8 in the previous week. This latest reading marks the 11th decline in a row and 7th straight week in negative territory, dating back to the first week in June.
As we mentioned last week, Gluskin Sheff’s Chief Economist, David Rosenberg said several weeks ago when the ECRI Growth Rate Index started to slide, “to keep an eye out for the -10 threshold, for at that level, the economy has gone into recession… only 100% of the time.” Given the recent spate of macro data suggesting a slowdown and possibly a double-dip, coupled with Ben Bernanke’s remarks of an “unusually uncertain” outlook, today’s latest reading does not bode well for the economy in the coming months"
http://www.bondsquawk.com/2010/07/ecri-growth-rate-index-hits-threshold-signals-recession-on-the-horizon/
@Amen
I know!
The EYE of creditcane has found its way to the Pacific Ocean garbage heap!
@Nic
Yeah, but if we all chip in and buy stocks won't the economy get better?
lol, the well connected hedgies, inactivity on taxes causing market rallies, dear lord
lets say you were so well connected that you knew kennedy would be shot, how you placing your bet?
yeah....that's what I thought.
waiting now for this gap to fill at 1108
@McF
You gap fill = my EW (pricewise) at the moment
...and if it FLASH CRASHED in that exact instant (not saying it will)...
the support would be 1040
if this is the C wave perhaps it won't close that gap until wave iii of C, if this is only wave i, it's not very inspiring thus far that's for sure.
@McF
More fun with that 60 minute chart (with GANN ANGLES)
in thread
McFearless,
Who, exactly, has argued that inactivity on tax legislation has caused a market rally?
If I knew that Obama were going to be assassinated (and exactly when), I'd take all the money I have, leverage it 10:1, and go short (for a few hours, anyway).
DL, not sure if you saw this today: Taxes and the Stock Market
@DL
I'd take about 50 bucks out and send a bouquet of lilies...
DL, should have edited my post, but you did in fact state the following:
"A few Democrats in Congress have come out in favor of extending the "Bush tax cuts" for another year.
That would produce a market rally of some significance, were it to actually happen."
sorry dude, I get a kick out of your certainty of these outcomes, you can't predict what the outcome will be with regard to tax legislation, but you do know the market reaction....oh, for a few hours right?
anyone that would have known kennedy was going to be shot had their ass handed to them by the following days close, and even worse a few weeks out.
I wasn't old enough to send Kennedy lilies...
FWIW
- 1065 was the low of the FLASH CRASH
- 1065 was within a few numbers of the point of my expanding wedge point (1064.88 closing candle)
- 1065 - (55) = 1,010
- 1065 + (55) = 1,020
Today is (55) days since flash crash...
I believe also, if you move (55) days prior (probably 57), you come to near the same 1060-1070 range...
I've been in 57 states...
Obama,
And don't forget, you've got one more yet to visit.
Meet me in the unemployment line in 2013
CV @2:52p - I think you meant 1,120 (paying attention, see)
FF - Add me to the list of possibles if you don't get 12 SC regulars
2s2b
@2s2b
OK... and good catch (1,120)...
We'll probably end up hitting 1110
1010 - 1110
Those algos speak binary code you know...
1101 - karens top
even the algos know about that
have you all seen this Dylan Ratigan???
http://digbysblog.blogspot.com/2010/07/ratigans-righteous-rant.html
Pimco Sells Black Swan Protection as Wall Street Markets Fear
BreakingNews
White House predicts record $1.47 trillion budget deficit for current fiscal year
alright, I'm out to play some golf, you all enjoy that close now
great weekends all around
"White House predicts record $1.47 trillion budget deficit for current fiscal year"
soft patch....
@karen
That Ratigan was classic... I thought he was going to have an aneurysm...
great! go play golf! maybe you'll miss something BIG in the last 40 minutes..
@McF
soft patch = we're hitting the RECESSION in the middle of the DEPRESSION part...
This is a good read! Ben will love it, but you gotta get to the end!
Some tidbits or just go directly to the full article:
Finally, the following statement from the minutes of the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee meeting could mean that quantitative easing has reached its practical limit:
In his presentation to the Committee, the Manager noted that 'fails to deliver' in the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market had reached very high levels in recent months. Under these conditions, dealers had experienced difficulty in arranging delivery of a small amount--including about $9 billion of securities with 5.5 percent coupons issued by Fannie Mae--of the $1.25 trillion of MBS that the Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York had purchased between January 2009 and March 2010.
While the Federal Reserve may announce an increase in quantitative easing by trillions of Dollars, if it is unable to find liquid securities to buy, the policy move may provide little value beyond an initial stock market squeeze.
Members of the Federal Reserve recognize that a slowdown is ahead but they lack the traditional tools to stimulate the economy. Although increased quantitative easing is a strategy that the Federal Reserve can pursue, it is unlikely to be effective.
http://www.safehaven.com/article/17592/worrying-signs-from-the-federal-reserve-minutes
another good one on gold.."Today, emotions rather than fundamentals are driving $Gold. That makes for a high risk situation, one from which disappointment might be spawned. Sentiment changed for the positive on Gold in late 2009. Funds and traders, that had previously ignored Gold and missed most of a decade long run, suddenly rushed into the market. After nearly ten years of exceptional performance, these light weight thinkers have discovered Gold. It is now an investment fad, and fads are transitory events."
http://www.safehaven.com/article/17588/gold-thoughts
@karen
I feel the same way about gold...
Everything I own I bought back in 2004... But now, I'm not holding it anymore for INVESTMENT purposes...
Really, the only reason I still have is because "what am I going to convert it into?
Fiat? Ha!
I'd love to see a 10 handle ramp into the close here... to 1110 or so...
I'd short the close if I could get that squeeze...
This literally makes zero sense: A strong currency and strong economy go hand in hand..
Dollar Struggles As Earnings, Europe Fuel Global Recovery Hopes
2 minutes ago
(RTTNews) - The dollar was generally weaker on Friday as stocks continued to rise on optimism that strong corporate earnings are signaling a sustainable economic recovery.
CV.. did you catch this paragraph as well? BinT will like it, too.
Also, we do share the view that ultimately the fiscal irresponsibility of the Obama Regime must be faced. The Obama Debt Debacle can be resolved in two ways. One is a lower standard of living. Such is the method being applied in the PIGS, and is likely to also be the experience in the U.S. A second is through an inflationary expansion of the money supply. That approach remains a possibility, though at the present only a remote one. With U.S. interest rates already at a low level, how is that to be done? Japan could not do it. Does Bernanke have some secret monetary tool, or is he just too deluded by Keynesian dogma?
CREDIT MARKETS: Borrowers Continue To Sell More New Debt
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100722-719300.html
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Corporate bond issuers were active in the primary market Thursday as strong U.S. corporate earnings, better-than-expected housing data and optimism about the release of forthcoming European bank stress-tests buoyed investor confidence in risk assets.
Three investment-grade issuers issued new debt, while the high-yield space continued its robust week with two major debt issues. The fifth Canadian bank this year issued covered bonds. Meanwhile, issuers of asset-backed securities are hamstrung by credit ratings agencies who aren't allowing their ratings to be used with new issues out of fear that new rules in the Dodd-Frank bill could expose them ...
Here... I'll parse that...
The dollar was basically flat on Friday (but it had a few ticks in the red so we'll call that BLACK for you - even though it was number 129 on the 256 gray scale)...
Stocks went up because algos were programmed to push them past technical resistance levels so as to blow out weak hands and make them FOLD their pocket aces into a a "raiser" whose holding a 4 and a 3...
Since nobody understands this, we'll drag out a few corporate earnings reports which appeared good (although we didn't really read them)... But were actually the result of:
- lying and cheating about their balance sheets
- a government that allows them to do so
- vain attempts to connect LYING about past performance do a straight line pencil trajectory to future growth...
So go back to your DANCING WITH THE STARS people... Nothing to see here... Nothing bad ever happens... Or if it does, there are people like Rachel Maddow to tell you whose to blame for it...
CV.. you think the top is in for JNK??? It's looking rather peakish on a 7-8 month chart.. as in 3 peaks..Three Buddhas ; )
@karen
"With U.S. interest rates already at a low level, how is that to be done? Japan could not do it. Does Bernanke have some secret monetary tool, or is he just too deluded by Keynesian dogma?"
Answer: Bernanke IS a monetary tool (which is why he's deluded by JMK dogma)... That should clear it up...
I guess Danny went on vacation?! no tweets since the 21st!
@karen
I've had JNK up all day and was looking at those 3 peaks... Never had the chance to comment on it...
LB actually predicted the latest rise before he flew out of here... I'd like to know how far he thinks that is supposed to go...
But he's out of order and so is I-Man who sometimes acts as his mouthpiece...
My personal feelings are that next week there is $200 billion in issuance to roll...
I think I have an idea as to where some of it might come from...
CV, LB left this comment at MacroMan today:
Hmm.. there are a few signs of early news releases this week. Somebody knows that there is a co-ordinated global squeeze on the way....
"You lot announce stimulus over there, and we'll pretend our banks are OK at the same time, while the usual guys sell their currency .."
Could be some pain ahead here for Mr Bond. Banks that have been accumulating Tier 1 capital (e.g. US Treasuries) might be tempted to do some dumping of safe haven assets after the stress tests are over. Shorting the long end and selling the yen seem like they might be good trades here.
I think he is in England now and I refuse to email him but if he sends some words I will post them.. where is I-Man??
You know, the 20 ema has held TBT down for the past few months.. it seems impossible that it can go much lower but it could just flatten out and be BORING.
Well, if I may say so, this was an *ffing miserable friday for me.. Isn't the first and certainly won't be the last..
summer trading sucks
I'm not sure about I-Man...
The other day he seemed miffed about something...
I'd made a reference about MOMOS being long... It had nothing to do with him, but since he trades E-Minis (and since "long" is probably the place to be in the excruciatingly short time period)...
I'm thinking I-Man has his game face on and doesn't want the distractions of BEAR TALK to interfere...
Which is only right...
Hell... BEN is probably the biggest bear around, and he's been talking long for days now (and skipped out to play golf today)...
So CV can go to hell :-)
America locks up too many people ...
http://www.economist.com/node/16640389?story_id=16640389&fsrc=scn/tw/te/rss/pe
This is the problem with private jails who pay off judges
@Nic (4:04)
It really does...
and CV.. actually from when he called it last week.. $tnx actually fell lower..
Nic, I was thinking the same thing this year, LOL.. but I'm a sucker for the market.. a complete junkie.. : )
@Nic (4:05)
I say... Send 'em all to GITMO...
No wait... Obama was going to close that...
No wait... He hasn't, or can't, or... or...
Needs a few more rounds of golf to make up his mind on the issue...
good article Nic.. it garnered a lot of comments quickly, too!
Well if it helps anyone out...
CV is heading to the EASTERN SHORE of Md this weekend and going crabbing on the Chesapeake Bay...
Mmm! sounds fun and delicious : ) I'm ensconced in gray again.. but the ocean is spectacularly gorgeous and warm.. so i'll go in at least.. paddleboard if it's flat..
Even TYLER DURDEN (zh) has an open thread up and in traveling...
KD is on vacation...
The entire friggin' internet financial blogosphere has come to a grinding halt...
lol
BTW
I'm going to keep repeating this ad nauseum...
CV's checklist still applies:
- EXPANDING WEDGE on hourlys (still in play)
- EUR-USD (still hasn't broken out to a 5 wave)
- VIX (still held in check by 144MA)
- 10yy (still has a 2 handle)
Today, you can add to that
- bearish divergence on 60 min RSI (SPX)
Now, that said, the problem with an EXPANDING WEDGE is, in fact, that it is EXPANDING... It could go to infinity for crying out loud...
But I'm thinking of it in a way that it still has a sort of HARNESS on...
Moreover, the longer it goes, the more VIOLENT the thrust downward will be if and when it needs to resolve itself...
Hell, it may only be a 6 day fancy... But I've had many RELATIONSHIPS not last as long as that...
You ride her till she BUCKS ya... Or you don't ride at all!
CV, you are hilarious !!
the new gold tax law:
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/gold-coin-dealers-decry-tax-law/story?id=11211611
LMAO
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/stress-test-update-europe-calculates-cost-nuclear-holocaust-€069
Stress Test Update: Europe Calculates Cost Of Nuclear Holocaust At €0.69
Also Europe finds that :
- Full GoM clean up will be around 2 bucks
- The cost of the Large Hadron Collider was reduced to a couple of dimes
- The US budget "deficit" is estimated to actually be a $100 quadrillion budget surplus
- Merrill's expense tab at Hustler Club is only $19.95
Coleman's commentary was good at http://www.forexlive.com/
I’ve sat here for the last nine hours and I feel as if I know less than I did when I started. The stress tests turned out to be a low-stress affair as many anticipated with a shockingly low only EUR 3.5 bln in capital required to be raised the entire European banking system. Skepticism abounds but the EUR selloff was short lived.
Great Hike!..busted my "lower region" twice...I'll be sooooore tomorrow...
Going to go see the Mexicans for a little repast.
What a market!
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