Creditcane has... In FACT... Actually hit St. Andrews...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eCiAY10uRCs
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=5385932&categoryid=2630020
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=5385932&categoryid=2630020
A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection
Creditcane smiled upon you this day.
SPXBearish long day. Delayed evening star confirmed. Yesterdays "tail" told the tale. Back below 1078.87 (fib using low). Back below the SMA(21) and further below the SMA(233). Midpoint barely above EMA(10). Back below the weekly 3LB mid. Did not hold the trendline (3/6/09-5/25/10). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal now 1096.48). QE2infinity.
DXYHammer day. Hair< 10% H-L. Midpoint below EMA(10). Will it break the SMA(144)…NO. The 85.11 (fibo .1459) has been violated. Now below the 61.8% retrace. New low on daily 3LB (reversal now 83.64).
VIXInverted hammer day. Midpoint just below EMA(10). Closed below weekly 3LB mid but above monthly 3LB mid. "Fear is here so don't get fooled on market pumps. Repeat ad nauseam." Back below the SMA(55),the SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 45.79).
GOLDBearish long day. Below the SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). "To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud!". New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1234.80).
EURUSDDoji day. Start of an evening star? Midpoint above the EMA(10). Closed above the SMA(89). Couldn't hold the fib .1459 of 1.2935. There is a weekly 3LB reversal. Still above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal now 1.2702).
JNKBearish long day. Couldn't hold the 50.0% retrace. Still below the SMA(89) and the SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).
GSBearish long day. GS ran through the SMA(55) and tested the SMA(89) but failed. Midpoint above the EMA(10). Tested the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98 (passed). The 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12 is on vacation for now. There is a weekly 3LB reversal. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 138.06).
10YR YIELDBearish long day again. Didn't test the 14.6% retrace (already failed). Midpoint now below EMA(10). Back below the SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 29.27).
LUMBERBearish short day. Still above the SMA(21). Almost closed above the weekly 3LB mid. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 195.00).
BPBearish harami day. Still above the 14.6% retrace (using recent low). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested the 23.6% retrace yesterday and failed. Now back below the SMA(55). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 28.74).
63 comments:
Tom Watson for president.
From previous thread re: 1.618 22.99 being 37.20. 2.618 is 60.19 and off 1099.46 that would be 1039.27.
What makes me think 1040-1044 will be a significant pain again?
A peaceful march lower. The kind the bulls find very hard to overcome. Probably because the way the market moved lower meant the bears weren't planning on covering.
A jam for friday
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d8XOxeuVoKc
AR, thank you for the wrap! did you leave off $copper?? it's okay, the one trade is still working : )
Ben, thanks for the music!! i'll come up with something but no one will like it.. oh, i know (put the volume up and close your eyes!):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1xobKBqIgMk
Couple james for the weekend. Love these guys...http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mBPGm4Fbo0Q
and this one's for Lloyd
Also, I learned today that bourbon whiskey was invented by a baptist minister. Who woulda thunk it...
K @ 10:15
I listened to “The Steps of Positano”.
Good music for relaxing or pondering.
DL, more Botti if you like trumpet..
Irresitible Bliss (go to itunes.. i can't find it on youtube!)
Midnight Without You: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AMN6P1dbsag
Indian Summer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IMP4Q5zNf2k
and this was a new youtube find i'd never heard him do:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QIgKlZFGmGA
and for CV, Italia http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ak6XFeX0Ik4
Karen,
I played trumpet for about 5 years (as a young pup).
Botti on trumpet is most magical and mesmerizing! Especially in person.
I was once able to play "War Pigs", "Eruption" (well, kinda), "Heartbreaker", and "Leyenda" on guitar...
Speaking of "War Pigs", this is a worthwhile documentary:
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-173889827965723460&hl=en&emb=1#
I meant the live music in the moment.. in the open air.. otherwise, i love listening at home with my headphones or making dinner. (His camaraderie with his fellow musicians in the early days was always fun, tho. I've seen him so many times..
(Mostly test) nuclear detonations, displayed on map:
http://www.ctbto.org/specials/1945-1998-by-isao-hashimoto
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/17/business/economy/17consumers.html?_r=1&ref=business
Wealthy Reduce Buying in a Blow to the Recovery
Karen,
Botti,
Never heard him before, I enjoyed that.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/07/time-for-dollar-bounce.html
Now before we worry that it is "too public" recall that Mish was actually getting bullish the dollar near the lows,
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/britainrsquos-debt-the-untold-story-2025979.html
Britain’s debt: The untold story
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The true scale of Britain's national indebtedness was laid bare by the Office for National Statistics yesterday: almost £4 trillion, or £4,000bn, about four times higher than previously acknowledged.
It quantifies the burden that will be placed on future generations, and it is the ONS's first attempt to draw together the "off-balance-sheet" liabilities that have been accumulated by the state. The figures imply a huge "intergenerational transfer" – broadly in favour of today's "baby boomer" generation at the expense of younger people and future generations"
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/Fed-Federal-Reserve-conspiracy-Bernanke-trim/1/7/2010/id/26253
McFearless,
I see you've taken a more sober look at your 8:28 PM post, and thought better of it.
(LOL).
yes...things were a little out of hand at that point
other trumpeters
jon hassell
chet baker
I agree very orderly decline Friday with no sign of short covering at the close.
Doug Kass is wavering on his bottom-is-in call
And Mr Roubini is starting to say the double dip word
Happy weekend all! I've been engaging in my patriotic duty (shopping) today and I'm saddened to report that our country is screwed. First, I parked next to a gigantic black hummer which was left running in the parking lot of the outlet mall (approx 105 over the asphault) so that a teenage boy could sit in comfort in the car. Then, I witnessed a man pushing a baby stroller while wearing a t-shirt with perhaps the most obnoxious slogan I've ever seen...it was based on the Snapple slogan, only it read "Snatch, its the best thing on earth." Yikes. Deflation has hit the outlet mall, as everything I saw had been marked down 12 times and was 20% off on top of that, but no one was buying. The just looked to be browsing while indulging in free A/C. McF -- I don't think you ever have to worry about an idea from Mish becoming too "mainstream." Over the years, I've been pretty impressed with his wave counting, although he blew the May '09 pullback. I still think he should have known that at a minimum there would be an ABC so there was more rally to come.
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10807608/1/slow-growth-or-double-dip--opinion.html
Slow Growth or Double Dip? - Opinion
...Great British Open today...we didn't go hiking or kayaking or anything..just vegged out...sorry I copied the ads above, when you aren't blogged it, you can't erase anything..
The above, believe it or not, comes from the Street.com...and the writing....well, I'll let you read it but it is a pretty good recapitulation of where we are now...
By the way, since my opinion is unchanged from the very first year when he turned pro, Tiger is still a snot. I don't think he'll ever be more than a brat...and now I think he probably realizes it.
pbbbbbbtttttt....Tiger.
"More money printing by October to thwart crisis - Mark Faber". Moneytalks.net
Those who were looking for QE2, she was recently seen in Canada.
Anyone here read Cobra's Market View? I found this post in the comments there today and thought it was really interesting. Sorry its so long.
I was an options trader before the crash of 2008, now I am a futures trader. When I was trading optins, I pay more attention to the 3rd friday of each month because it is very important specially if it was a big day that close near the high or the low of that day(green or red it doesn't matter).
what I found after (specially 2008) is the following:
it is a bad signal for the market. But you can find a way to trade it like for example, if the 3rd friday was a big down day and you buy puts at the close (or short the market), you can collect at least 50 points from the S&P. and if you want faster gain, wait for the first green day after OE and short at the close because that day will be completely erased. I also find that market will visit the hourly RSI 60 in the monday or maximmum tuesday ( I also find the price visit the upper band of the bollinger band in the hourly chart next day which will be monday).
I share this information but it is not sure as most traders her know but as you alwats says " I am showing the past statics and that's it".
What I found is a new case this year which is we have now 3 big down days in an OE in one year (it is in only 6 months) and that coould be a signal of a trouble year or another long down leg.
if you intresting, these are the date for the past 30 months:
these days the market closed near the low with big and clear body in the daily candle
1) Jun,20,2008
2) Jan,15,2010
3)Apr,16,2010
4)Jul,16,2010
and below are the days that we have a big down day but the market didn't closed near the low:
1) Jan,18,2008 (when the dow was down in monday after OE in the future more that 400 points)
2) Oct,16,2009
Finally, this not a recomendation for trading, this is just sharing information as Copra do always and I really apreciate your great work Copra.
well, my husband and i did it today... mediated our divorce with dignity, fairness, and for a flat fee. the fact i cannot stop crying now that i am home, not withstanding.
glad some of you enjoyed chris botti.. his metamorphosis has also a been of societal interest to me.. you might buy some of his full recordings from the late 90s..
@ karen, sorry this was a tough day for you. You have many friends here wishing you well, even long-time lurkers like me.
@Nic
Vis a vis last weekends post...I took the liberty of calling my sis on your behalf ( a senior at a downtown big four) to see if she could book you an appointment with her doc...I just got the call back. Unfortunately, she can't take any more patients. I didn't realize it was getting that bad.
One suggestion we both agreed on. In the past, we've both received excellent care through Mt. Sinai emergency. It might be a good place to start getting networked if you're not. Sorry about your plight. Take care!
Karen, sorry to hear that. I hope things turn for the better.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o5UmSVGMD6I&feature=PlayList&p=081CC5EBBC6D5562&playnext_from=PL&index=9
BTW Friday was the day after the SMA(55) crossed below the SMA(233) which for me is more ominous. The last time was on 1/3/08. Just sayin'.
Karen
Hope you feel better soon.
July 16 (Bloomberg) -- Municipal borrowers defaulted at three times the typical rate even as the pace fell from records the past two years when Jefferson County, Alabama, and Lehman Brothers Holding Inc.’s failure sustained historic levels.
Thirty-five municipal bond issues totaling $1.5 billion defaulted in the first six months of 2010, the Miami Lakes, Florida-based Distressed Debt Securities Newsletter reported in its July edition. That annualized $3 billion pace is triple the rate of $1 billion or less a year going back to 1983, Richard Lehmann, publisher of the newsletter, said in a phone interview today.
“I wouldn’t start celebrating just yet,” said Lehmann. “I wouldn’t think things are getting better. A lot of issuers are on the brink
....Of course, this is not the consumer, this is local government.....2 years out....
There are of course, many ways of looking at the current mess. I see Krugman, as always, is now postulating a double dip, and for weeks has said we haven't enough stimulus.
The other way of looking at this is we've been on a Keynesian road for the last 40 years, and especially in the Greenspan era. Keynesian stimulus has been anywhere and everywhere from yearly government deficits, and therefore debt levels to very low interest rates, and therefore the housing bubble and finally the debt crash. This is simply the end of the road from years of Keynesian thought (agreed, not the way Keynes saw it) that were unopposed from any thought of austerity.
We've walked about as far as that road will take us. I do wonder what 2011 will bring with taxes and new laws that will make it tougher for business in the US. All actions have consequences.
Karen, I am sending you a big hug and wishing you better days ahead.
Mel, thank you so much for doing that. Yes it is very bad here, soooo many people do not have family doctors.
I have been got a referral to a Dr of Internal Medicine who treats Lyme but he is too busy to see me at the moment. Getting treatment from walk-in clinics is like re-inventing the wheel each time. I have been taken to emergency twice with "suspected meningitis". It is a joke considering the walk in removed the tick from my head and saw the big target rash.
I have given up with traditional medicine as a result of this fiasco and working with a homeopath now. Wish me luck.
If one more doctor tells me that "we don't have Lyme disease in Canada" or "two weeks of doxycline is all you need to cure it" when I know my dog got Lyme in Canada and needed two months of treatment to get better, then I will commit harikari or whatever its called.
@Bruce
Agreed. I've been talking to friends and family the last few days about what is about to happen in Canada (of course, most people think "about to happen" means tomorrow or this week - I'm talking next 6 months-2 years) in terms of the big banks and real estate/consumer lending. People are oblivious to the fact without consumer discretionary and real estate, Canadian GDP is negative for Q1 but the 6.1% growth is really good - despite its origins. I'm not talking with unintelligent people either - engineer, doctor, geologist, oil exec. No one thinks the good times will end, "it's different here", too many good jobs, etc. What happens if commodities plummet again? "But they won't." What happens to the banks dividend/profitability/earnings if borrowers cna't make minimum payments? "Won't happen." Do you realize the debt loads in Canada? "But it is different here." What happens if credit dries up? "Why would it?" What happens when people would rather have money in hand and credit paid off than have 'things'? "What is the point of having credit and money if you can't spend it?"
I can't wait for the Canadian media and these same people to tell me, "But nobody saw it coming."
Of course they will all be getting out right at the worse possible time.
Anyway ....
Sovereign debt back on the menu this weekend.
Hungary talks with EU and IMF have broken down and Hungary has been denied access to its remaining IMF loan. This is v bad news for risk and could drag the EUR down with the HUF.
Good news for bucky and possibly Gold
Business Week / Bloomberg
Zero Hedge
McHappy I am with you.
Household debt ratios in Canada are mental
@Ben - if you are out there!
Did you have a chance to look at the idea of extended fifth for minor 1 of intermediate 3 of P3? I still like it. Makes more sense to me than any of Danerics work of late.
Also, see EWP p. 68 - Behaviour following 5th wave extentions.
The retracement is text book a-b-c. a went to 4th wave of extension, b was a normal retracement, c went to start of extension/previous 4th (in this case 1099).
I reserve the right to be wrong but the downside here is very real. Especially considering those looking for 1151 and optimism this week.
Bucky is ready to pounce probably coinciding with the start of minute 3 of minor 3???
Finally the time line is shaping up 'correct' IMO off April 26:
minor 1 21 days (april 26-may 25)
minor 2 18 days (may 25-June 21)
minor 3
minute 1 9 days (june 21-July 1)
minute 2 9 days (july 1-july 15)
I'm not looking for 'group think' here. Anyone see any problems with the above thinking? After all my babbling about filling in gaps and being proven correct (after giving up on it!), I might start giving myself a little more credit (but not too much!).
Nic,
Your brief comments today and recently about the HC system in Canada have made a greater impression on me than 6 months of listening to the MSM talk about it. Too many journalists are shills for political parties, and it's hard to get the real story.
Thank you DL
@DL @Nic
Nic... I'm sorry about your situation, and DL, I'm sorry about the type of ignorance that people tend to NOT come face to face with until it is tossed right onto their cheeks and they're forced to wipe it off with a towel...
But look...
This situation is the EXACT thing that CV was talking about WAAAAAAAAAAAAAYYY back in TWSWB days (and thus, got kicked off of for a week while TWSWB the statist tried to balance the worthiness of CONTROVERSY vs. INTELLIGENT COMMENTARY on his "Net Jets Sponsored Hobby"...
- The thing that CV got kicked off that socialist/statist site for having an opinion on...
- The thing that "grand debating society" afficianados (names withheld) prefer to spend their time arguing about (and wasting electrons on)... and thus find it in their best interest to perpetuate blogs just so as to talk to 3-4 individuals on a daily basis, I imagine, because their own lives are so devoid of logic and intellect, their DNA has morphed into SPONGE molecules...
---HEALTHCARE---
One last time...
State supported HC is a joke... It's "worse than a joke"...
People get sick (for all kinds of reasons)... People DIE (for all kinds of reasons)...
The notion to try to SOCIALIZE this is BEYOND MORONIC...
But that's why we elected a MORON as President... Or you could simply put it another way... Americans are MORONS (in the 'electorate')... So... In 2008... MORONIC America elected a HUGE MAJORITY of MORONS (who - since - have done nothing but do MORONIC things...
Now... 2100 "mid-terms" are coming up...
So... Count on MORONIC Americans to "turn the tables" on their absolute MORONIC behavior in 2008 and elect another batch of MORONS into office (who will do nothing else but try to be the antithesis of MORONICY from 2008 and thus do equal or better MORONIC things that you will have to subject yourselves to)...
Luckily CV has a decent head of hair... If not, the sheer volumes that I have to yank my hair out on a daily basis might make me look like the later versions of Bruce Willis in two seconds flat...
People... It's easy... Screw all these people... Screw their policies... Screw who you think you align yourselves with...
You're all TRADERS here... (I think)...
So? Trade your NUT... And prosper! :-)
Thank you all for your thots and well wishes.. time is what i guess i need.
Nic! sounds as tho you have had a couple of very high fevers! i can only assume you've been on a round of two of antibiotics and it didn't help.. so so sorry..
CV, laughing.. it's not hard to get you on a rant! I have no idea how that Healthcare plan is supposed to work.. can possibly work, I mean.. like getting a bicycle to fly.
BTW, forgot to post the outstandling loan total of Laguna Beach homes headed for auction on Friday.. only about $8M this week.
The problem with the health care debate in the US is that no one, not even readers and writers on this blog admit where we are now.
We have socialized health care. We have had socialized health care for some time now. A hospital cannot turn away a patient, and then there is medicare, the catch all.
Through state sponsorship of hospitals and subsidies by both federal and local governments, the health care system is already socialized. It has been this way for some time.
Politicians telling half the country that they are not going to let the government socialize health care is every but as moronic as the "keep your government hands off my medicare".
When you don't start with an honest assessment are where you are, you can't really be surprised when the plan doesn't work out.
@karen
Please let me add a log to the fire of "well wishes"... :-)
Back to HC (or ANY topics "such as this" for that matter)... MY IDENTIFICATION OF "such as this" NEANS ANYTHING THAT REQUIRES YEARS, OR DECADES OF TIME TO UNDERSTAND THAT IT WAS EITHER SOMETHING OF GREAT VALUE... OR A FARCE/JOKE...
The truth... Nobody will ever be able to quantify that "socialized medicine" is/was a JOKE for then next two decades... I'll give you other examples to understand CV's reasoning...
- VIETNAM (seemed like a good idea at the time)
- Fannie/Freddie (seemed like a good idea at the time)
- CORN ETHANOL (please)
- DOE (seemed like a good idea at the time)
- IRAQ (seemed like a good idea at the time)
- QE (seemed like a good idea at the time - to some)...
- QE2 (don't get me started)
- DOW 1,000 (Precheter)... absurd!
Until people start to tune into a HIGHER POWER (a power that enables them to think in a "multi-generational" timeframe) they'll be doomed to remained mired in the mediocrity of their IDIOT decisions)...
And TRUST ME... TRUST ME... Global Warming DOES NOT (I repeat... DOES NOT) fall into the same category...
Therefore... one need not only be intelligent enough to think in LONG TIMEFRAMES... One ALSO has to be intelligent enough to UNDERSTAND which battles are worth fighting, and which ones to leave to a higher power to flesh out...
Karen
I was not able to convince a walk-in doctor to give me another two weeks of antibiotics so I have only had two weeks total of them. Sucks to be me. I am on homepathy and herbal remedies because I have given up trying but I am hanging in. It clogs my eyesight (hard to focus) and gives me brain fog which is frustrating. I won't let it beat me.
@anon
Politicians telling half the country that they are not going to let the government socialize health care is every but as moronic as the "keep your government hands off my medicare".
In the end... It's all semantics...
Somewhere BETWEEN (a "sponsored politicians media baked" message... AND... the "average J6P with no time in life to do any other thing in his/her life except be a moron")...
Begets a MORONIC outcome...
Frankly... By now I've come to EXPECT it...
Not that I don't desire the perfect meal... But nowadays I basically EXPECT a fly in my dinner soup...
You have two choices...
- Send the soup back (and go hungry)
- spoon the fly out... forget about it... and then go on with your meal...
How much does a disease riddled person sitting in the middle of the street cost? How many other people are going to catch that disease?
Health care is by definition socialized.
For a hint on the time frame I am using, look at the most significant medical discovery of all time.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Lister,_1st_Baron_Lister
@anon
and for some FURTHER perspective on the FLY IN THE SOUP analogy... consider this...
If your CHOICE is to "go out to a restaurant" to eat a meal... The chances, or likelihood that you'll get a FLY in anything, I'd imagine, increase exponentially...
That's SOCIALISM...
Instead... If you learn to cook, buy your own ingredients and are responsible for them on your own...
Well then... The degree to which those are POLLUTED is largely dependent on your own personal attention to detail...
Right? Or, am I OUT OF MY MIND?
@ McHappy, thanks for your observation regarding Canada. Makes me stay sane. I cannot believe what my 65 old mother said yesterday. "Let's buy a small acareage outside of TO( for flipping). My response was, " Go ahead without me". Amazing mentality!
From Canada(India).
The entire modern medical establishment is built on the back of the socialist ideas of clean water for everyone, electricity for everyone, and safe disposal of waste for everyone.
Everything else is just a half of a percent here and there.
Anon @ 3:24
Clean water and electricity are relatively inexpensive compared to healthcare. Moreover, the costs are, in general, sustained
by the end user (in the case of water/electricity) in accordance with how much he/she uses. The clean water/electricity analogy is totally irrelevant to the question of who will be paying the HC bill.
CV,
I will say this about the HC bill. If it's not defeated in the 2012 election, it probably never will be.
Hillary for Prez!
Who was paying for the uninsured health care before the bill? You are going to pay either way, unless of course you agree with euthanasia, but then who gets stuck with getting rid of the body? That costs money too.
And just as an exercise, figure out how much it would be to run new pipes and power lines throughout an entire city. Someone somewhere along the line had to pay for that. They had some wisdom, and you pay less because of it.
Anon @ 4:03
Of course we all pay for the uninsured when they make a visit to the emergency room. But the issue is that of total cost, and who will pay for it.
Regarding the water/electricity analogy, I think the point you’re missing is that of “elasticity of demand”. When people have to pay a monthly electric bill, they will (in the aggregate) tend to conserve, to at least some degree. If it were up to Obama, everyone who earns less than $50K/year would get free electricity. And what do you suppose would happen to electricity use among this group if Obama got his wish?
@DL.
Lucid points....
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