Morning Audibles - Stocks are going to Pluto!

Well... Since EVERYONE agrees that stocks are going to Pluto (and, after all, when is a consensus ever WRONG)?...


We might as well take a look at Pluto and see what it's all about, and what it's up to these days...




Hey look... LIAM NEESON is there heaving Breakfast On Pluto... LIAM, Why don't you get with the program, back away from the cornflakes, and RELEASE THE DAMN KRACKEN!...



No doubt that Pluto is wild and crazy place... OK... Enough COMEDY JOKES!... Hell, I thought that recently astronomers were talking about how Pluto wasn't even an official planet anymore... It's too small or something... And if that's the case, why should it figure in astrology? It wasn't even discovered until 1930 (probably an insignificant year stock-wise)... So how can ALL OF HUMAN HISTORY prior to 1930 have any application to Pluto? Of was the "telling" of history retrofitted to the discovery of Pluto?



Anyway - This is how PLUTO is supposed to matter (size notwithstanding)...



Pluto is the agent of transformation and rebirth. It is connected to death and it can sometimes lead us to encounter and deal with death in the world. However, physical death is just one of the many layers of meaning in Pluto. It is about endings that reach so deep they spawn a regeneration process. Transformation is the transition of change between the old and the new; between death and rebirth. Pluto's endings are a necessary end to what was, in order to release energy which then fuels the transformation process and then facilitates the rebirth into a new form.





* July 30-31, 2010: This marks another intense few days. Mars joins Saturn at 0° 49' Libra, opposing the Moon, Jupiter, and Uranus in Aries and squared by Pluto. Again, large masses of people may be affected by so much planetary energy concentrated near the cardinal points. Since cardinal signs are action-related, there may be a lot of people on the move (demonstrators, troops, refugees). The Mars-Saturn conjunction is on the Midheaven in Indonesia, China, and the South China Sea, creating conditions for a crisis in that area.

* August 6-7, 2010: A cardinal grand cross is formed, involving Jupiter-Uranus in Aries, Pluto in Capricorn, the Moon in early Cancer, and Venus joining Mars and Saturn in early Libra. The Sun at 15° Leo makes stressful aspects (45°/135°) to the entire grand cross. We'll need to remain calm and balanced to deal with the relentlessly stressful aspects this summer. The electricity grid may be threatened; unusual Earth or weather changes could be part of the picture.

Since CV sucks at stocks charts, I decided to re-apply my energies into doing astrological charts... My first effort is on this "Cardinal Cross" thingy... So - Here it is, I think there ought to be something in there for everyone...




And OK... If 1065 does, in fact, happen to be important... What's wrong with this scenario? The LD was broken on the upside (but that happens all the time, and as of this point, it's wavering and is screaming OVERBOUGHT)... Also, the 50MA is comfortably within the boundaries (perhaps heading towards the apex)...




222 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 222   Newer›   Newest»
AmenRa said...

CV

Nice chart.

CV said...

@Amen

A couple of gaps to fill as best as I can tell...

Anonymous said...

@CV, the best chart ever! Beauty is in the eye of the beholder!

For both bulls and bears. Is this an inflection point? Or just dog days of summer?

I Can

CV said...

FAST MONEY

July 2, 2010 (spx at 1015)

"Did you have the guts to short today?" Hobbs asks. Terranova says no, but Brian Kelly of Kanundrum Capital says he sold some short today.
Kelly says the jobs number this morning was terrible: "There is just no reason to be in this market. You want to be short this market, if you are aggressive. If you are not aggressive, you don't have to be in it," he says.

Steve Grasso concurs that the market is more likely going down than up. CEOs are just not hiring yet, that's why the markets are going down.

CV said...

FAST MONEY

July 26, 2010 (spx at 1115)

I’m looking at earnings versus macro-economics, explains Brian Kelly. Corporate America is saying the world isn’t such as bad place but macro-economics says the world is slowing down. For now earnings has won and I’m net long. I expect a tradable rally but I’m not sure about the sustainability.

CV said...

Wait... Mr. Kelly...

You were aggressively short at 1015?

But now you're net long at 1115?

Fast money...

Anonymous said...

is that a 30 min chart? It would make more sence to me if I knew the time frame.

CV said...

@anon

Actually it's not a chart at all...

It's the Obamacare health plan bill...

CV said...

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc100726.htm

"Over the short-term, my impression is that the technicals may hold sway for a bit. The economic data points simply do not come out every day, and to the extent that economic news is not perfectly uniform in its implications, the eagerness of investors to speculate can easily dominate briefly. We established enough contingent call options at lower levels that we've now got about 1% of assets in roughly at-the-money index calls - a modest "anti-hedge" that removes any concern we might have about a frantic short-squeeze if the S&P 500 moves materially above 1100. At the same time, the historical evidence suggests that fundamentals have ultimately trumped technicals when we've observed similar warnings from economic indicators in the past. My impression is that the economic cold water could hit investors very abruptly, so that gains achieved over several weeks may be suddenly erased in a matter of a few days."

I-Man said...

The stars are aligned...

CV said...

Copper down (a little)

May be the first little hint of a doji there... Maybe...

karen said...

morning! I'm late to the table but love the artwork, CV.. hope this wasn't already posted: Chinese banks face state loans turmoil

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/73c71f2e-988a-11df-a0b7-00144feab49a.html

karen said...

GLD in the 114s.. can't say we didn't see that coming..

I-Man said...

Going to see how the market takes the CC number before checking in to the the asylum.

72bat said...

KD this a.m.:
S&P/Case-Schiller Home Prices Rise 4.6% .vs. Year Ago
Hmmmm...... so let's see, what's $8,000 (the tax credit, which didn't exist a year ago but did this May) of ~$180,000 (median home price, according to the NAR)
Oh wait, that's 4.4%!

karen said...

nice figuring, bat : )

72bat said...

k -
didn't put quotes around it, that's all k.d.'s

karen said...

Alan Zibel, AP Real Estate Writer, On Tuesday July 27, 2010, 10:02 am
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Treasury Department, under fire for not developing a concrete plan for mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, says it will hold a conference in next month to discuss their future.

The administration says it will hold a conference on the future of the mortgage funding system on Aug. 17 at the Treasury Department.

The financial overhaul didn't address their future, despite protest from Republicans that it was incomplete without a plan for the two companies. The Obama administration has said it wants to wait until next year to determine their future.

So far stabilizing the pair of mortgage buyers has cost taxpayers $145 billion

karen said...

drv just went to it's 52 wk low which i couldn't buy fast enuf..

CV said...

FWIW -

NEW CHART IN THREAD

I couldn't see it until today, but the EXPANDING WEDGE that CV has been talking about for a week now (and is still valid as a pattern) is anchored at 1065 (the same number of flash crash lows)...

I anchored it to the closing price level of that day (and the expanding wedge goes from the top and bottom of that 60 minute candle (which - although they were different days, were part of the same 60 minute candle)...

Anyway - Based on todays open... 1065 is a perfect 61.8% aspect ratio between the top and bottom of the wedge (as illustrated in the chart)...

Just for fun mind you... Because the CONSENSUS says stocks are going to Pluto (and the consensus is NEVER wrong)...

karen said...

FUN chart, CV.. this fellow would agree with you.. he reminds me of the I-Man.. his tweets are hilarious:

themosmitsos - being short SPX is a position trade for me, I'm looking for sub 800 to take profit, fyi, that's why comfortable (kinda) being under here

karen said...

zerohedge - rumor mill on fire: exxon to buy hess, kerkorian group to acquire MGM, Fed seeks to divest its US middle class LBO

karen said...

this TBP post was right up my alley.. The US Economy's Lost Decade

"Just in case you forgot: By nearly any conceivable measure, the George W. Bush administration (2000-08) economic performance was the worst of any President since Hoover."

karen said...

DR will be a must read this morning (from ZH):

Rosie's market commentary from today is quite colorful, taking on both Barton Biggs (why bother) and Richard Russell as inflection point contrarians (we fully expect Barton Biggs who has now generated enough commissions for his broker to kill his entire P&L for the decade, to go bearish in about two weeks in keeping with his latest standing wave oscillation from one extreme to another). Rosie discusses a topic near and dear, namely that bonds continue to not buy the equity rally, and that the market is really not only stupid and inefficient, but wrong and overshooting most of the time. The only question is for how long can it remain wrong. And courtesy of the Fed, the answer is long, long, long. Not surprisingly David ridicules the constant lack of volume to the upside, and concludes that the rally should be faded, and that "this market is completely unprepared for 500k claims and sub-50 ISM."

karen said...

Okay, I am definitely not posting again for another 30 min!!

CV said...

@karen

Sorry -

I'm working on some different charts :-)

AmenRa said...

Karen

Don't stop. You're on a roll.

I-Man said...

Intraday trendlines, Ganns, and Fibs see through the serpent.

CV said...

More scrbbly lines (another NEW CHART in thread)...

McFearless said...

Karen,

I found that post pretty weak myself. It was a policital statement rather than one that was "data driven"....but hey, lets not that get in the way when it serves the purpose right?

McFearless said...

I think this Dow Theory buy signal will end up being very similar to the one in March, it'll last a few weeks, then we'll have the pleasure of riding this big fat C wave down....I stick by 800's handle before year end.

hope I catch the wave dude!

McFearless said...

starting to see a lot more concern out there over the dollar. this is a good thing.

I-Man said...

Watch the fx...

I-Man said...

weird shit in yen... hasnt hit indices yet

McFearless said...

last, I think my comment that this break above 1,100 would hurt the most people is going to hold true.

look at the tone of DR's letter today for starters on what I'm getting at here, lots of people growing horns (like a bull)

mcHAPPY said...

Ben,

I liked the double top you pick you posted last night here. Also went back and read EWT for April. Comparing current chart with 1930's chart and throwing in some RP cycle talk but things in perspective. Unfortunately it would appear the next few weeks are up based on the above comparison.

I-Man said...

Although it felt like a breakdown, I think we're about to return to our regularly scheduled program, "Risk On."

I-Man said...

usdcad doesnt fit tho... something is up in currency land that is larger than the scope of I-Man's brain...

karen said...

Ben, as for George W.. it's which came first, the chicken or the egg.. was he a facilitator or bystander. Also, very much agree with your 10:46.. 1100.

CV, I do think 1065 is important and thanks for polishing up that chart, above!

karen said...

I need an omelet; don't you, I?? back in another 30 : )

CV said...

@karen

They're all "bystanders" since Andrew Jackson...

Some get shot... some don't... That's how you can tell them apart...

McFearless said...

Karen,

here is what I said in the comments on that thread:

"I doubt anyone would argue that Bush was awful….how could they?

That said, the big picture seems to show that by most meaningful economic measures the economy wasn’t looking so hot by the time bush took office.

Considering our two huge bull markets in stocks from 42-66 and from 75-00 you’ll find in the 75-00 period that average annual real gdp was weaker, industrial production was weaker, capacity utilization lower, average monthly unemployment was higher. If you start looking at measures debt, deficits, and liquidity it’s the same, household liquid assets, personal savings rate, consumer debt, etc, all much worse from 75-00. Even if you start the second bull market in 1982 it only slightly changes some of the data and in some cases it looks even worse.

So, while Bush was no doubt a disaster, it would at least seem in looking at the data the 2000’s have also been about the continuation of a longer trend. Maybe a PhD. can school me on why that’s wrong though."


Now I'm just trying to be objective here, the credit bubble was already huge by the time Bush took office, it was just massive and the trends in the economy were decades old, not new in 2000. Bush's response to it's potential collapse is not any different than any other president would have done, just take a look at Obama. Sadly though, peole that write nonsense like this aren't going to be sitting here in 2012 if we are in bad shape saying look how bad Obama has done (some will) but no, people that write this crap, they are going to say O had no choice because of what GW did.

As I say every day now....people should widen the lense a bit, it's amazing what you can SEE.

I-Man said...

Maybe we are breaking down... there is some strength to the usdcad it seems...

McFearless said...

Kenny has now punted on calling ths a wave 2, which is nice to see. He's far more objective than Daneric imo.

I'll point out that as hard as this market has been this year I think that Harry Dent and Charles Nenner have both called it real well overall, they were both looking for this summer rally, even after things looked really bad off the april highs.

McFearless said...

I-man,

currencies are no doubt important but are we overthinking it? Can't deny that internals looked real good pretty much across the board yesterday, at the same time though, we are pretty overbought here....so a small pullback but the market seems to be saying the near term direction is def. higher.

I think this is sort of the outline Andy had with his sunday update, seems to be working so far.

I-Man said...

I've never overthought a thought in my life... I think.

karen said...

Ben, excellent and true 11:05.. My biggest upset with W wasn't that he was elected the first time, but the second.. and that was just a reflection of the social character of the US.

AmenRa said...

Gold getting killed, yen getting sold (BoJ of course), dollar gaining strength. Something is amiss.

karen said...

alaidi - Gold in EUR Terms at 893- right on the 38% retracement of the rally from the July 2009 low. #yen is weakest of the lot $XAUUSD $$

CV said...

@karen

Looking at the EXPANDING WEDGE chart...

See 3P&ADH?

the 3 little bunched tops, last week at 1100... Now... the domed top...

Whatever... I'm just dreaming...

McFearless said...

Karen,
re: 2nd term
yeah, social mood does some crazy shit in that voting booth, damn limbic system...

This is part of the reason I'm such a RP fanboy, it's his ability to assess the fundamentals properly. Clearly I side more with him here than I do his charts.

he said something very true when comparing the two periods in CTC, he stated that clearly you can't argue that from 75-00 the economic by every meaningful measure was worse than it was from 42-66, the numbers are the numbers and even those are understating how bad 75-00 was because the govt and corporations changed all their methodology in how they report a lot of that data, so it masks even more weakness. The one major difference, the stock market gained about 1930% over that period, about double what it did from 42-66. He says this is the "new economy" that everyone can "feel" in their bones and they believe so strongly in.

Social mood, the great deceiver!

McFearless said...

hey props to Nic, she was all over the gold short.

Nice call

McFearless said...

futures look different than cash...again.

I haven't been able to count a decent short term wave for a few months....shit!!!!!!!!!!!

CV said...

Well... In 2004 you could have had JOHN KERRY...

That's probably the same argument as saying "Well if you didn't elect Obama, you'd have had John McCain"...

Anyway... Electing John Kerry would have bankrupted our economy in a different way...

Don't EX-PRESIDENTS get, like a full staff of secret service and things to stand watch over ALL THEIR HOUSES at all times...

Kerry (wife) have, like, 8 gazillion houses...

CV said...

At least by electing Bush, you already had a watch service going on at Kennebunkport...

McFearless said...

I mentioned ticker EXAS here about a week or so ago but nobody here said anything about it, wish I could say I was in there but I'm not, but it's an interesting stock to watch, not a whole lot of shares changing hands though.

karen said...

Insane that fnm and fre would rally on this news:

Fannie, Freddie jump as housing reform push starts
11:21 AM ET 7/27/10 | SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac jumped in morning action on the over-the-counter bulletin board Tuesday after the Obama administration said it's organizing a conference on the future of the U.S. housing finance system for Aug. 17. "The future of our housing finance system is critical not only to our economic recovery, but also to millions of American homeowners in every corner of our country," Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner said in a statement. The White House is working on a housing finance reform proposal for delivery to Congress by January 2011. Fannie shares jumped 21% to 33 cents, while Freddie gained 16% to 36 cents.

AmenRa said...

Whistling past the graveyard*




*located at 1110 Clavadista Ave.

McFearless said...

what's insane is those are even traded to begin with!

wtf?

CV said...

@karen (re: FNM/FRE)

CV is convinced that, if say, a comet strikes planet Earth on December 21st, 2012 and obliterates all of mankind down to to the size of bacteria...

Computer algos (located in some basement), unharmed by the blast of the ELE... Will still trade FNM & FRE for the rest of eternity...

CV said...

CV is going to re-write "The Planet of the Apes"

McFearless said...

Karen,

what's ur buddy Sinclair saying right now? No, better yet, what is Jesse saying?

CV said...

Jesse is crying in his bisque

Soup Nazi said...

No bisque for you!

karen said...

Sinclair: The calls I am getting this morning are total capitulation calls. Emails are worse. Gold will trade at $1650 and beyond.

Jesse: The formation as a 'cup and handle' is still valid, with the retracement less than 50% off the final high (1154 would be 50%) but there are other formations worth considering. We'll keep an open mind on that depending on how this week finishes.

karen said...

BreakingNews - Boat hits a well 65 miles south of New Orleans, causing oil to spew 20 feet in the air, officials say

Planes, trains, automobiles and Boats (oh, left out buses.. my advice, do not follow BreakingNews on Twitter : )

CV said...

"Gold will trade at $1650 and beyond."

Before or after it trades 3 handles?

AmenRa said...

Jesse: Today is yet another Comex option expiry, and the metals, which have been subject to bear raids for the past week, were hit hard and heavy from the New York crowd. This is also the "roll" week, as anyone not intending or funded to take delivery of August gold has to be out of their long positions by the end of the day Thursday.

McFearless said...

lol, sinclair, he said 1650 was a certainty last august in his countdown to dollar implosion letter where "sources" told him the chinese wanted out the dollar.

I think it was Chuck Norris that was spying for him, and Chucks beard, which by itself could destroy a regular man.

McFearless said...

I highly doubt any but a very small % of moron retailers are capitulating about gold prices being where they are right now....give me a break, they've hardly moved down off the highs and if you bought at the highs thinking gold $3,000/oz was a near term certainty, well.....

AmenRa said...

Gold (100oz) had a weekly 3LB reversal down on 7/2/10. GLD didn't get its reversal until this week (but the week isn't over yet).

I-Man said...

Indices are in denial.

CV said...

"Boat hits a well 65 miles south of New Orleans, causing oil to spew 20 feet in the air"

Probably a US Government boat... You know... There to report on the PROGRESS from BP...

...and up through the ground came a bubblin crude...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xKAEQNhjHs&feature=related

"Black Gold" "Texas Tea"...

mcHAPPY said...

I do not like the gaps above in the 1120 range. Also, that recovery double top pick is embedded in what is left of my brain. There is also a gap at 1197-1202 on from Monday May 3- Tuesday May 4 on the hourly charts. I believe this thought was shot down about 8 weeks ago but looks to be very much in play now.

CV said...

"This is also the "roll" week, as anyone not intending or funded to take delivery of August gold has to be out of their long positions by the end of the day Thursday."

In similar news: Sales of this stuff

http://funkydowntown.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/Edible-Gold-Spray-Paint-1.jpg

are going through the roof at tungsten supply depots all across the globe...

mcHAPPY said...

CV,

I'm liking your chart and the implications down to 1065. This move would undoubtedly have many applying the shorts again before a final ramp much higher. Unfortunately for shorts, the move down would be a b wave and Mr. Market would be singing, Oops! I did it again.

wunsacon said...

Didn't Richard Russell not too long ago say "sell everything, because you won't recognize the country by the end of the year"? And now he says we are seeing a bullish technical indicator with "special" powers? What the heck??

AmenRa said...

Honestly if those who are long gold decided to take delivery that would end many of the games in that market. Some of those markets settle in cash instead of gold if you want delivery. But it would really shake things up a bit.

McFearless said...

Wunsacon,

when the facts change he changes his mind....what do you do?

Besides, it's not as if last night he said to jump into stocks, he didn't say anything of the sort, he just said there was a dow theory buy signal, if you wanted to play the DOW he said to use an ETF and place a stop but that he was just going to sit in his cash and gold holdings and do nothing. He hasn't strayed from the idea we are in a secular bear market, just thinks the bull within a bear may still have some legs. I see a lot of people bash prechter because he never changes his mind, now I see people talking about Russell all over the place for changing his mind.

Politico's take note, you can't please everyone, or anyone really.

McFearless said...

McHappy,

1190-1200?

my take, lets see what happens if and when we get to 1150, it's been bad enough since the drop started in August trying to apply price points that far out, in fact, it's been death to one's portfolio. Day to day man, that's the best we can do right now imo.

McFearless said...

drop started in April I mean...might be losing it here.

karen said...

Ben, you are so wise today! Wish you were president, LOL.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Ben is wise every day.

...The market, however, may be schizophrenic on Mondays and Tuesdays!

mcHAPPY said...

@Ben,

Fair enough but my comments around the 1010 area talking about gaps above were pretty much tossed to the curb at the time. The gaps remain over head and until they are filled in I would not feel comfortable. Does that mean I am stocking my portfolio for this to happen, no. But am I considering it as more than a small probability, yes.

McFearless said...

"Wish you were president"

oh man, you'd only put me there if you didn't like me....ha!

McFearless said...

I'm really not wise though, but I read a lot from others that are and then I try my best to copy them....I've got a long ways to go.

CV said...

"you are so wise today"

This tower was a giant, standing with its back to the plight of the ants. It represented in a degree, to the correspondent, the serenity of nature amid the struggles of the individual--nature in the wind, and nature in the vision of men. She did not seem cruel to him, nor beneficent, nor treacherous, nor wise. But she was indifferent, flatly indifferent.

It is, perhaps, plausible that a man in this situation, impressed with the unconcern of the universe, should see the innumerable flaws of his life and have them taste wickedly in his mind and wish for another chance. A distinction between right and wrong seems absurdly clear to him, then, in this new ignorance of the grave-edge, and he understands that if he were given another opportunity he would mend his conduct and his words, and be better and brighter during an introduction, or at a tea."

The Open Boat
Stephen Crane -1897

McFearless said...

McHappy,

re: gaps:

not all gaps are created equal, so I always keep these notes in mind:
According to traditional technical analysis, there are four types of price gaps: Common, Breakaway, Continuation and Exhaustion. The Common gap provides little, if any, analytical value and occurs primarily within a range-bound market. The Breakaway gap indicates that a new trend is beginning. The Continuation gap typically marks the midpoint of a developing trend. Finally, Exhaustion gaps signal that a trend is coming to an end, and they are typically the third gap within a series of price gaps. Moreover, it is the price gap most likely to be closed.


Maybe those gaps way up there were of the break-away variety, I don't think the larger trend down has been invalidated at all by this move yet so I'm looking at this in shorter steps, but of course, you are like 6'9 or something right, bigger steps than me....;-)

CV said...

@McHappy

"The Continuation gap typically marks the midpoint of a developing trend.

1065 - 1010 = 55
1020 - 1065 = 55

Trading days from 1010 to cross 1065 = 5
Trading days from last 1065 to 1020 (today) = 5

Just saying...

CV said...

Oh yeah, there is a gap right above 1065

karen said...

zerohedge - New post: $38 Billion 2 Year Bond Comes At Lowest Ever 2Y Yield On Record Of 0.665%

McFearless said...

interesting, and DR said today that in the last two weeks some $2 billion in retail money was flowing into HY bonds


so, considering HY's are going to move in a fairly correlated way with stocks, retail investors may appear to be bullish in the end, despite yanking all that money out of stocks. It's hardly like they are playing it safe in hy's....

I-Man said...

usdcad

arbitrage789 said...

According to this Bloomberg.com story, stock short sales are at a 2-Year Low:

http://tinyurl.com/25fo6cz

karen said...

DL.. I posted that yesterday!! but thanks for brightening my day, sunshine.

arbitrage789 said...

Karen,

Sorry, didn't read all the posts.

McFearless said...

ok, this market is boring the hell out of me so I want to bring something up I was thinking about last night about using tech analysis.

I see a lot of people say they have no interest in TA yet they are in one way or another involved in markets at various times or all the time. I'll set aside the fact that all market participants MUST think technically at one point or another. Instead, I'd just like to point out that this group is ignoring TA to what has to be their own detriment. Isn't it, at minimum, obvious, that head and shoulders patterns keep popping up? Who could deny this? What's that, they don't always work? What does? That basic pattern though and you could have traded breaks or non-confirms on several H&S and inverse H&S since last summer and done quite well with clearly defined stops. If you can't at least admit that markets are patterned you are in denial, and you'd also basically be stating that you are ignoring something that big money on the street is very much paying attention to and convicted enough to put money on.

I'd love to hear why that's irrelevant or not something at minimum worth consideration because I'm not sure I understand this idea that the "chartists" are in some make believe drawing land. You can't spin the squiggle lines on the charts or twist it into something it is not, they just are.

I'd ask for thoughts but the only people around work primarily off charts, and I still think Bruce is buying callable CD's at schwab :)

arbitrage789 said...

I'm going to take some credit for saying, early this month, that I was bullish on the next few weeks.

And for my next act, I'm neutral on the market for the month of August, and bearish for the month of September.

McFearless said...

a counter point though to the lack of short sales being a potential bearish indicator:

We’ve looked at short interest relative to both the NYSE and NASDAQ over the years and have found no consistent correlation, which makes this a poor indicator in which to fashion a stock market forecast. For instance, the NYSE short interest ratio as a % of total shares outstanding was at a record high of 3.60% at the end of January 2008, but that did not stop the NYSE from declining 53% to a low in March 2009.

McFearless said...

DL,

props dude, nice call. hope you made some cash off it.

karen said...

Yes, DL, and thanks for sharing : )

arbitrage789 said...

“the NYSE short interest ratio as a % of total shares outstanding was at a record high of 3.60% at the end of January 2008, but that did not stop the NYSE from declining 53% to a low in March 2009.


Yeah, well, the worse the economic data is, the more extreme the bearish readings have to be in order to get a sizeable rally. So it’s a game of deciding how to weigh the various parameters.

If it were that easy, we’d all be rich.

mcHAPPY said...

Thanks for the gap bit, Ben.

CV, I fully expect the gap around 1080 to be filled long before 1197-1202.

This is all further evidence the news does not drive the market. Maybe people's interpretation might be a better way to describe it - this of course would go along the lines of social mood, I guess. The news the last 2 weeks has been awful. 'Earnings' could be considered good but you are dealing with the rearview mirror approach and shady accounting to get the 'beat' and guidance is being raised but we know how forecasting works in a bear market.

If we count the ABC X ABC (which I am) the closest thing I can see is a flat-X-zigzag as part of a large A-B-C. The large A-B-C is an expanded flat with the B being the low on July 1st. We are working on the C. If this count holds, C would most likely have to end far beyond A where B went below the start of A (i.e. expanded flat).

1.618 of A starting off 1010 is 1157. Although I would not doubt some sort of double top scenario playing out whereby 1219 comes in reach but does not get exceeded.

My bottom line is I expect CV's scenario of 1065 to happen although we reach this conclusion from different perspectives. For me this will be a B wave. After this, I fully expect another run higher, killing off a few more bears in the process, before the next real bull slaughter begins.

In what I have read about third waves, we are most definitely in one. Bears and bulls are getting slaughtered with many (myself included) making decisions at exactly the wrong times. I'm sure this debate will continue until the 'Prechter Point' or point of recognition.

The fact we are flirting with a reversal on the weekly 3LB (1110) should be of concern to bears.

McFearless said...

wasn't that the point I just made?

McFearless said...

in response to DL, 1:54, all I'm saying is I'm not sure we read much into the lack of shorts right now....simple enough.

I-Man said...

fuck this market

mcHAPPY said...

I don't have my EWP with me here but I believe:

In a bull market: 2's make you think we're heading lower and b's make you think we're heading higher - both end up wrong.

In a bear market: 2's make you think we're heading higher and B's make you think we're heading lower - both end up wrong.

Makes so much sense when you couple the above with people's tendency to make market decisions at EXACTLY the wrong time (think sell in March '09 and buy in April '10).

arbitrage789 said...

I agree.... lack of shorts is a variable to give only modest weight to.

AmenRa said...

I-Man

Stopped out again eh?

McFearless said...

I had some shorts stop out yesterday....(sh)it happens.

karen said...

Tuesday, July 27th, 2010, 1:10 pm
The US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) reached a $700,000 settlement with CitiMortgage, Inc. (CMI) after the company failed to report delinquent loans by the specified monthly deadline.

http://www.housingwire.com/2010/07/27/hud-fines-citimortgage-700000-for-failure-to-report-delinquencies

karen said...

Whatever on the short thing! It's comparable to the page 1 news analogy or mag cover indicator.. It only becomes meaningful in hindsight. LOL

karen said...

Today is emphatically boring as all hell.. thank goodness for multi-tasking !!

arbitrage789 said...

Is that $700K coming out of TARP money?

McFearless said...

karen,

lol, I did read that link when you put it up, it's not entirely worthless, but it's no gold bullion either, that's like...intrinsic

:)

arbitrage789 said...

We have:

(a) merely boring;

(b) emphatically boring; and

(c) emphatically boring as all hell.

AmenRa said...

I swear there is a magnet out there for trailing stops. Sometimes I'll wait a day or so before adding one. No problem (finger on the STC button). The day I add one is the day it gets hit. Go figure.

arbitrage789 said...

AmenRa @ 2:22

That goes double for people who hold futures positions overnight.

McFearless said...

so the volt is going to run $41k before the $7,500 tax credit....

I'll take a brand new 3 series instead thanks....

McFearless said...

volatility sonar report:

http://www.youtube.com/user/optionmonstertv#p/a/u/0/hZCk6U1UVXg

interesting action in these pits of late to say the least

I-Man said...

Oh I and I friends... if it was only one side of the market, it would be an easy problem to solve.

But its the rip/sell off... range... whippy as all hell range... rip/sell off cycle that is so challenging, hence frustrating.

Thats all. Having a good day go shitty in the first hour after lunch just compounds it. Its not losses, its gameplay.

arbitrage789 said...

I-Man,

Ready to back to your old job yet?

I-Man said...

Damn straight there is, Ra... (2:22) You cant auto trail fear and greed. Thats computer thought, hence, I imagine it would be easy to write a basic trailing stop program if you were a good trader who also knew how to write code.

I dont use trailers. I move my orders all the time based on the recent price action.

I-Man said...

DL,
No way man... not a chance.

McFearless said...

lol, I could answered for I on that one DL, I've never met one person that left the retail world and wished they were back... not one

I-Man said...

I'd go farmer before I ever set foot in a brokerage firm again.

I actually turned down a really good offer to stay before I left and turned it down. There is no going back.

McFearless said...

did people watch the Elizabeth Warren interview at Barry's

it wasn't a bad interview but...

what's with these people getting down to a serious whisper when they want to really make a point with "feeling"

james galbraith loves doing this, I find it annoying personally.

maybe I'm just annoyed in general right now

CV said...

@McF (2:30)

Hell - If I wanted to go ELECTRIC... I'd just buy a shell of some chassis that I liked, pull out the motor, and put a forklift engine in it...

McFearless said...

I'll never look back once I leave here, not even a quick glance.

arbitrage789 said...

I might actually try full-time trading (with lots of leverage) one of these days... but not now.

I-Man said...

All my money has been made by setting up good technical limit entries, basically being in the rip/dip before it starts, having stop moved to risk free by 2 ticks, and then closing the trade BEFORE I want to.

But if you dont have a good entry from the start, you get sliced and diced for small losses alot.

I-Man said...

I do all the same chart shit I used to, its just on the 1min, 5min, 10min charts now.

karen said...

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/07/27/report-jack-tatum-dies-at-61/

arbitrage789 said...

I-Man,

A "swing trader".

Or, just, a "swinger".

arbitrage789 said...

Karen,

Never figured you as a football geek.

CV said...

@I-Man

Hell, you could probably fade every gap up open for a spell, then go long for the last 30 minutes every day and do just fine...

karen said...

you figured me correctly.. that was a retweet i thot i'd share with the sports fans on this blog : )

I-Man said...

Strictly daytrader. No overnight holding of positions.

CV said...

Jack Tatum...

"The assassin"

CV said...

I doubt he'll get any flowers from Darryl Stingley

I-Man said...

@ CV

Its kinda weird because there are no gaps at the open... I suppose I could look at the cash to do that, but it would be confusing.

CV said...

@I-Man

Yeah I forgot, you're trading "minis"...

You ought to check the cash... It practically gaps every day...

karen said...

This is good.. #3 is the buddy of my neighbor across the street.. remember when Cheney made an appearance there two summers ago? if was for calvert.. his OC backers have made a lot of money on CRE..

karen said...

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-14-most-corrupt-members-of-congress-who-arent-charles-rangel-2010-7#rep-vern-buchanan-r-fl-1

sorry, forgot the link.. fwiw

CV said...

You look back at the past month (probably further)...

Practically every intraday high or low was hit between 9:30 - 10:00, or between 3:30 & 4:00...

arbitrage789 said...

Regarding Congress, there's the corrupt that have been caught, and the corrupt that have thus far evaded detection.

arbitrage789 said...

Yeah, sometimes you get a lot of action in the S&P futures in the 8 A.M. to 9:00 A.M. time frame.

CV said...

@karen

Here's my favorite... LOL

Representative Laura Richardson (D-CA) is a two-term member of Congress, representing California’s 37th congressional district. Rep. Richardson’s ethics issues stem from accepting favorable loans and her failure to properly report a loan on her financial disclosure statements. Rep. Richardson was included in CREW’s 2008 report on congressional corruption.
Falling into Foreclosure
In May 2008, Rep. Richardson’s Sacramento home was sold in foreclosure. She claimed that this had happened without her knowledge and contrary to an agreement with her lender. Rep. Richardson had failed to make mortgage payments on the property for nearly a year and had defaulted on other home loans as well. Rep. Richardson also failed to include the mortgage on her Sacramento home on her personal financial disclosure statements. According to press reports, Rep. Richardson has defaulted on loans at least eight times on properties she owns in Long Beach, San Pedro and Sacramento. She also failed to pay approximately $9,000 in property taxes on the Sacramento residence. At the same time that Rep. Richardson was missing payments and failing to pay her taxes, in June and July 2007, she made three loans to her congressional campaign totaling $77,500.
On June 2, 2008, Washington Mutual Bank, Rep. Richardson’s lender, filed a notice of rescission of the foreclosure sale. By that time, James York, the man who had purchased the Sacramento home, had already invested money cleaning up the house and preparing it for resale. As a result, Mr. York filed suit against Rep. Richardson and Washington Mutual, alleging that Rep. Richardson received preferential treatment from Washington Mutual because of her position as a member of Congress. In July 2008, Mr. York dropped his suit, allowing Rep. Richardson to reclaim the home.
In October 2008, Rep. Richardson shared her personal financial records with her hometown paper in order to show she was up-to-date on previously defaulted home loans. She claimed the loans for her Long Beach, Sacramento, and San Pedro homes had been modified and that her finances were in order. Rep. Richardson’s amended 2007 and 2008 personal financial disclosures failed, however, to include the mortgage loans for her properties in Long Beach, Sacramento, and San Pedro.
Rep. Richardson’s housing issues have continued to plague the Sacramento neighborhood where one of her homes is located. In 2008, the Sacramento Code Enforcement Department declared her home a “public nuisance.” After visits to the home, city inspectors reported they found junk and debris in the driveway and rotting fruit in the backyard, attracting rodents. In May 2009, after neighbors complained about the home’s overgrown yard, the city posted another violation requiring that the lawn be mowed. The lawn was mowed but issues with the upkeep of the house did not end. Neighbors e-mailed and wrote letters complaining about the state of the home to Rep. Richardson and to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, to no avail. Eventually, neighbors began taking care of the house themselves: paying gardeners to mow the lawn, water plants, and rake leaves.

McFearless said...

so Rod blago has a brother named Rob Blago?

man, for some reason I find that hilarious, just a vision of those two sitting on the couch and always both answering when mom or dad call out a name.

karen said...

CV, I remember her well.. it that ufb or what?!

CV said...

@I-Man

Another thing is this...

On the cash...

Quite a few of the the daily HIGHS, when they hit their wave endings, go right back and do a .009 pullback...

Today was the same...

1020.95 - (1020.95 x .009) = 1110.86

The look at todays waves on the 1 minute charts...

This isn't just a strange occurrence today... It happens all the time...

I'm not trading these moves though, just observing them...

I-Man said...

Thx, man... good eye.

McFearless said...

all this buzz over the afghan war documents leak is really over the top. Who is it that is just realizing now that things aren't going well over there?

seriously

McFearless said...

hmmm, 8 loan defaults, she seems qualified enough to run treasury!

CV said...

see right now... based on todays pattern...

The market should be breaking down... from that 1110 number...

Instead, we're close enough to the end of the day, so it'll probably just be an algo driven ramp job into the close...

karen said...

somehow i missed this:

Another Guaranteed Box Full of Crap - via FDIC

I-Man said...

yeah, no shit...

I read some book back before 9/11 about the taliban that detailed their connections to the pakistani military.

Wasnt a secret.

CV said...

@I-Man

Trouble is... I can't say how the minis correlate to the cash in those moments...

I-Man said...

me neither...

karen said...

okay, okay, i finally get it.. market closes up every single day.. someone, please, beat me with a stick if i don't buy the dip and sell the close tomorrow.

I-Man said...

the funny thing about these range days from a daytraders perspective... is you end up making the same trade twice! its a trip...

McFearless said...

exactly, you don't need to be some foreign relations expert (you know, like Joe Biden, riiiight) to realize the more bogged down we are in Afghanistan the happier our "allies" in Pakistan are...come on, this is war 101.

it's not even on most people's radar anymore though, obama said all during his campaign that he would get "end the wars", here we are with more troops in Afghanistan and all I see in every poll is 60% or more people with the top priority being jobs/economy.

I-Man said...

I'm short at the moment if it makes you feel better Karen.

:)

I-Man said...

From like a minute ago

I-Man said...

And not any more.

I-Man said...

Thats life in the 1min candles right there folks.

CV said...

Go short on ANY day after 3:20 at your own peril...

Especially on Fridays...

CV said...

CV is trying to move the market "psychically" by deploying counter-intuitive acquiescence techniques...

I-Man said...

I could see a nice dump into the close here... alot of supply overhead.

Bush said...

McFearless,

You're either with me, or you're with the terrorists.

karen said...

my new motto (hat tip to mother): If you put things off until the last minute, they only take a minute.

arbitrage789 said...

Karen,

So I guess from now on, your trading day will start at 3:59 P.M. (Eastern).

CV said...

@McF

"obama said all during his campaign that he would get "end the wars", here we are with more troops in Afghanistan and all I see in every poll is 60% or more people with the top priority being jobs/economy."

LOL - I had to laugh... Last week I'm flipping the TV back and forth between baseball games and come across the Rachel Maddow show...

So she's there showing footage of herself all wrapped up in a flak jacket - helmet...

Kind of GERALDO RIVERA-ish...

Interviewing troops, etc. - Then she comes back in studio and spend the next half hour looking straight into the camera and telling her viewers how now "she GETS IT"... She knows why we have to be there, and that the main problem was that Bush was running the war improperly, and now how the mission is back on track...

UFB!

McFearless said...

Karen,

this guy is from my hometown of North East, PA on Lake Erie. He used to play every Friday happy hour at Cafe 210 West in State College when I was there, best place in all of SC imo, this is a CD of his and check out the song

procrastination

http://www.cdbaby.com/cd/jcuningham

great song, I drank many a long island iced teas having a blast with this guy, one cool cat here.

he once walked to Canada across the frozen lake with some other guys I know, all they did was pack up a few PB&J's and went for a walk, got some beers over there and called for a ride back home.

karen said...

No, DL, but I do think my new motto will enable me to take my ability to procrastinate to new levels.. and be a lot more productive!

McFearless said...

he does a mean rendition of pinball wizard

arbitrage789 said...

CV @ 3:39

That is funny.

The political left is very conflicted about that war.

CV said...

PB&J's???

If it was PBR's, I might have joined him...

CV said...

@DL

I kid you not...

McFearless said...

C,

I make a point to change the station right away if I see her, but I'm glad she's got it all figured out now. Last I checked however, Robert Gates reamians a common denominator.

karen said...

Ben, LOL! reminds me of Jimmy Buffett : )

CV said...

@DL

I guess Obama might still be able to count on the gay vote in 2012...

So if half of all Americans come out of the closet in the next 2 years he might have a chance...

Maybe if he fired half of the cabinet and replaced them with the VILLAGE PEOPLE instead of the VILLAGE IDIOTS he'd get back some lost ground...

McFearless said...

oh man, hearing that song brought me right back to the cafe. PSU, gotta make it to a game this fall.

WE ARE

McFearless said...

Karen,

Jimmy Buffett is somewhat of an idol in my hometown for some reason so I could see why you say that.

that song is just funny, it was real fitting for college kids who'd rather be doing funnels and bong rips than studying for finals.

karen said...

oh brother! BreakingNews

800,000 gallon oil spill in Kalamazoo, Mich., leads to state of emergenc

karen said...

are we awash in oil yet?! clean up jobs for all..

McFearless said...

is that true?

Michigan can't catch a break...

And Ann Arbor is a whore.

karen said...

http://www.mlive.com/news/kalamazoo/index.ssf/2010/07/state_of_emergency_declared_as.html

CV said...

@karen

Kalamazoo is more than 30 miles from Lake Michigan... So we're not talking WATER here

McFearless said...

oh, and if nobody got it about Ann Arbor then sorry, I was still in PSU mode when I made that post...

McFearless said...

C,

they did the oil spill on purpose to fend off the asian carp...

karen said...

http://www.tradersnarrative.com/lowry-research-update-buying-power-exceeds-april-highs-4493.html

CV said...

Alright I've had enough with these oil spills...

So if people want to make documentaries on 9/11 being an INSIDE JOB on trying to start a war...

Pretty soon I'm going to start thinking all these oil spills are an INSIDE JOB trying to get to a carbon emissions tax...

Obama said...

Oil spill in Kalamazoo?

I've got to find some ass to kick.

karen said...

CV, clearly you are playing with a full deck and no one can pull the wool over your eyes..

arbitrage789 said...

Karen,

I believe that you're mixing your metaphors.

McFearless said...

nice link karen on lowry's, McClellan at an extreme too, but that thing never seems to market an immediate turn does it.

CV said...

@McF

Perhaps CV is one of the few who IMMEDIATELY knew what you meant by Ann Arbor...

CV said...

@DL (4:02)

We'll cross that bridge when it hatches...

CV said...

OK Karen...

CV will take POST #200 and spare you the pain and agony...

«Oldest ‹Older   1 – 200 of 222   Newer› Newest»

Post a Comment

Disclosure/Warning

This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.