AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

Creditcane is now over warmer water...

Spinning top day. Finally gave up 1110. Still above the SMA(21). Tested and failed the SMA(233). Midpoint above EMA(10). Back below the weekly 3LB reversal price (1110.88). Also couldn't hold the trendline (3/6/09-5/25/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1064.88). QE2infinity.

Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed to retake the SMA(144). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) has been violated. Below the 61.8% retrace and tested the 50% retrace (failed). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 82.49).

Spinning top day again. Fought back from earlier high (long hair). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. "Fear is here so don't get fooled on market pumps. Repeat ad nauseam. Arrghh!" Still below the SMA(89) and held the SMA(144). No daily 3LB changes (reversal now 22.73).

Bullish short day. Confirmed bullish harami. Below the SMA(21), the SMA(89). Tested and held the SMA(144) again. Midpoint below EMA(10). "To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud!". Still below 14.6% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1195.70).

Bullish short day. Midpoint above the EMA(10). Still above the SMA(89). Above 1.2935 (fib .1459). Still above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.2943).

Bearish short day. Tested and failed the 76.4% retrace again 3x. Still above the SMA(89) and the SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 36.43).

Bullish long day (why?). Tested and passed the SMA(89). Back above 147.91 (fib .236). Midpoint above the EMA(10). Still above 144.98 (fib 2.058 from low). The 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12 is still waiting. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 145.22).

Doji day. Below the 14.6% retrace. Running towards the 0.0% retrace at 28.83. Midpoint barely above EMA(10). Still above the SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 31.14).

Doji day. Volatile day. Still trading above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 4247.00).

Bullish long day. Still above the SMA(21), SMA(55) and the SMA(233). Midpoint below the EMA(10). Tested the SMA(89) & SMA(144) and failed both. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 76.23).


McFearless said...

Who here thinks the Fed ultimately chooses self destruction over self preservation?

For review:

Released on 7/29/2010 4:30:00 PM For wk7/28, 2010
Prior Actual
Total Assets - Weekly Change $-8.4 B $-7.0 B
Reserve Bank credit - Weekly Change $-0.2 B $-3.4 B

Total assets of the Fed dipped another $7.0 billion for the July 28 week after declining $8.4 billion the previous week. The drop was led by a $7.1 billion fall in the value of holdings of mortgage-backed securities. Currently, the Fed is not purchasing or selling MBSs but the asset amount is changing with market value and payoffs of mortgages. Total assets stand at $2.329 trillion.

Bank reserve credit for the latest week fell $3.4 billion after slipping $0.2 billion during the July 21 week.

Note: Total assets in the Fed's H.4.1 report are Wednesday levels while Reserve Bank credit is an average of daily figures for the week ending on the same Wednesday. Changes in total assets are from Wednesday to Wednesday while changes in Reserve Bank credit are for weekly averages.

Bill Clinton said...

Monogamy is unnatural for our sexy species

CV said...

Bonus Question...

Who here knows whether or not the FED understands the difference between self destruction or self preservation?

CV said...

policy wise... of course...


AmenRa said...

Still haven't found any reason for the move in GS. They are trying to eliminate swearing in their emails (big f'ing deal) and will be selling some CMBS with Citi. Anyone find a reason for the move?

Ben Bernanke said...

Understanding the difference between self destruction and self preservation is as simple as understanding the difference between horses and pinapples.

Don't over think that, because once everything is logically laid out it all makes sense.

Now go out and SPEND SPEND SPEND, you lolligagers have an economy to save.

Oh my bad, you lolligagers need to go out and CHARGE CHARGE CHARGE, the economy is will not wait for you.

AmenRa said...

This was the 4th try by GS to get above its SMA(89). It tried 3 times and failed. This is the first time it has gotten above the SMA(89) since 4/16/10.

Anonymous said...

"Google: blocked in China". Company says it's internet search and ad platform had been fully blocked in China.

karen said...

AR, that GS move has me puzzled as well.. hindsight will be 20/20 : )
CV, I'm with you on questioning the Fed's sense of self..

So, I'm still hoping to see INCEPTION tonight.. my first movie since February.. Isn't that what people do during a Depression, go to movies?

Lastly, while I may not know who Justin Bieber is or what he looks like.. I was pleased enuf to make this fellow's acquaintance today. (Don't click on it!)

Bruce in Tennessee said...

I didn't click it...but who is that guy?

karen said...

Bruce, what did you think of Tom Hardy in Inception.. he has a shoe fetish so I'm excited, laughing.

Bruce, honestly, I have no clue who the fellow is in my link above.. and can't even remember his name!

Watch the Yen, now: Japan's June jobless rate higher-than-expected 5.3%, but household spending above estimate
07/29/2010 07:49:15 PM

oh, and a Tom Hardy link, if interested in his great tastes..

karen said...

Oh, Bruce, and thank you so much for sharing your fotos.. all beyond words !! I'm so happy you get to revel in your corner of our magnificent earth.. it's what humans should do, every day.

mcHAPPY said...

Banks May Get Profit Boost as Demand for Debt Rises
Financial Times | July 29, 2010 | 07:07 PM EDT

US banks are taking advantage of improving earnings and growing investor demand to raise billions of dollars in debt at historically low interest rates, a move that could boost the sector’s profits in coming years.

.... What happens if the loans are unable to be repaid and/or minimum payments kept up?

Anonymous said...

so . . .the Fed buys more treasuries-

how does that help the economy- by lowering yields on Treasuries and trashing the $ ???

also- what of the blanket refinance idea- just refinance everyone w/ GSE debt to lower rates-

if you take the mortgage balance and divide by 360 (i.e. zero interest) but the house is still 150% upside down equity wise- how does that help the folks who will walk?

it won't- so look at it as only a way to free up cash to induce people to spend- with folks more likely to sock the money away in these uncertain times

desperation tactics coming from all corners-

ominous sign

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Gee, Karen, thanks. My wife and I hike nearly every weekend, and we try to get to North Carolina, Kentucky, and eastern Tennessee.

I have been reading about Niall Ferguson, and the end of Empire musings he's had lately. As you'd expect, conservatives think he must be right on, and liberals think he's FOS.

I can't help but think that we are in for a very rough time. I think the time frame for our whateveritis is going to be accelerated next year with the further outgo from individual pockets from the various ways national and local governments are going to demand funds.

We have, by one way or the other, cut the staffing at the salt mine by 15%. Simply a business decision. Going to a party tomorrow where all the big dogs will be on the porch with Jack Black. I'll try to share any thoughts the community has about the economy.



CV said...


No way...

CV is hoping that pretty soon they offer CV 150% financing at 0% interest on the farm...

That way I'll take the extra cash & short the banks! :-)...

arbitrage789 said...

Karen @ 7:43

I did not click on the link.

But if, as a hypothetical matter, I had done this, I would not have been interested in seeing a Cosmo Centrefold.

Andy T said...

I'm going to start scaling into more DXY length's now into a really nice support zone. Was 20%'s time to gear up to 40% long of a max. position now....

wunsacon said...

>> As you'd expect, conservatives think he must be right on, and liberals think he's FOS.

C'mon, Bruce. Some of us libs think he's on to something. We're not all clueless.

AmenRa said...

Is this what GDP will look like without intervention/manipulation:

Bruce in Tennessee said...

From the Prudent Bear this morning:

Fed Member’s Deflation Warning Hints at Policy Shift

NY Times07/29/2010 12:51 PM
Bullard Urges FOMC Purchase Treasuries If Deflation Risk Grows

Bloomberg07/29/2010 11:55 AM
Economists Expect Slower Growth in Second Half

NY Times07/30/2010 05:22 AM
California Democrats to Unveil Budget Plan, Income Tax Increase

Bloomberg07/30/2010 05:08 AM
Federal Reserve's James Bullard: Long-term deflation is a possibility

Washington Post07/30/2010 04:32 AM
Americans Splurge on IPads While Broke in New Abnormal Economy

Bloomberg07/30/2010 04:26 AM
US consumers feel the economic strain

FT07/30/2010 05:24 AM
Few in U.S. move for new jobs, fueling fear the economy might get stuck, too

Washington Post07/30/2010 04:29 AM

...New taxes and the fed finally admits there may be deflation in the cards....very interesting day ahead. That is all California needs, more taxes...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

“Relying even more on the volatile income tax is not the way to go,” McLear said in an interview yesterday. “Our tax system is mostly based on capital-gains taxes on rich folks, so when those rich folks have a good year we have more revenue coming in. But when California taxpayers have a bad year we end up having less revenue coming in.”

Schwarzenegger in May proposed $12.4 billion in cuts, including the elimination of some health-care and welfare payments to the poor. Steinberg said the Democrats may support half of those cuts, if the balance could be satisfied by tax increases.

California’s top individual income tax rate is 9.55 percent, although there is an additional 1 percent tax for mental-health services on incomes in excess of $1 million. The state has the highest sales tax in the U.S. at 8.25 percent, according to the Washington-based Tax Foundation, a non-partisan research group.

Republican lawmakers, who first brought the idea of the tax swap to the negotiating table, said they can’t support the plan as the Democrats are suggesting.

“It was intriguing but when we looked at it we realized there was no way to accomplish it without a massive tax increase on the middle class,” said Senate Republican Leader Dennis Hollingsworth in an interview yesterday."

Ben22 said...

check that dollar chart peeps!

Ben22 said...

oh, and in relation to the technicals vs. fundamentals debate I've found a blog comment that explains the housing bubble in a whole new light, this is enough to make you cry laughing:

"Most asset bubbles are in fact a result of a kind of technical-trend following: Housing going above its 200 DMA is a signal to leverage up and pile into the housing market … ooh, look, housing went up again! This is too easy … think I’ll lever up even more and buy multiple units so I can flip them for a quick profit… whaddya know? Housing went up again! We all know how that ends."

so there you have it, it was the 200 day and so many people followed it that the housing bubble became self fulfilling. lmao.

most people that have waded into this debate reveal that they've never actually done any technical analysis within the first two lines.

CV said...


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