TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Audibles 7.29.10

Morning Audibles 7.29.10 - Within & Without

OK so I "apologize" in advance for CV's constant harping about this stupid EXPANDING WEDGE...

Notwithstanding... SURVIVOR CAPITAL is... FROM TIME TO TIME... when it's not a JUKEBOX... supposed to be a blog that expends more electrons discussing trading strategies instead of trying to colloquialize campfire messages while singing KUMBAYA and eating smores...

Last time I checked, the "kumbaya/smores" behavior was the prime directive of a girl scout troop (CV admits to liking their cookies though)...

Back to the aforementioned WEDGE... OK... I'm going to sport a few images of it... WITHIN & WITHOUT... But first, a little musical accompaniment...

WITHIN YOU WITHOUT YOU

WITH OR WITHOUT YOU

As for the CHARTS... Here's the WITHIN... Y'all saw some of this yesterday...

This is CV's "incessant & idiotic" harping about the WEDGE from 1065 (flash crash low)...

A somewhat wider view (with future extension hypothesis)...

Now HERE is where CV's EXPANDING WEDGE starts to look ridiculous... But hold tight...What would happen if one drew those diagonals all the way back to the FEB '10 lows)?... And why?... The HAMMER candle on 2/5/10, closed at 1066... Nit-pickers... TAKE YOUR SHOT RIGHT HERE...

Eh CV... Who cares about FEB '10? Let's extend those (1065) diagonals all the way back to '07... So that we can REALLY PROVE what a clown you are...

I know... You're a SERIOUS money manager... Give me something USEFUL for crying out loud... I WANT DOW THEORY dammit!... I'll stand for NOTHING LESS... Show me the $TRAN... Now!... CONFIRMATION BITCHEZ!

Well that doesn't tell me anything... I need a LONGER term view... Screw the WITHIN... Show me the WITHOUT! (Note: selected LEVELS of $TRAN in this chart were congruent with the dates of 1065 levels... Granted, it seems a little "messier", but not if you APPLY the $TRAN levels to RSI)

Good luck with your trades... NOW & FOREVER... Bitchez :-)

210 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 1 – 200 of 210 Newer› Newest»

karen said...: Keep hitting the nail on the head, CV, while I listen to U2, with or without you. : ); July 28, 2010 at 12:40 AM
karen said...: But my FAVORITE is Fez: Being Born; July 28, 2010 at 1:00 AM
Anonymous said...: http://www.scribd.com/doc/34934725/SG-Albert-Edwards-20100727

Prashant; July 28, 2010 at 1:01 AM
karen said...: Prashant, is your english lacking??? a lead in to that link would have been nice!! TEASING YOU! thanks for the link..; July 28, 2010 at 1:14 AM
Anonymous said...: Will try to give you a Hyper Link next time around.

And now that you have brought in linguistic skills into the picture, that reminds me that I have always wondered that if I translate something into English from my language (Hindi/Urdu/Punjabi; and esp for Songs/Poetry), a large part of the flavour is lost in the process. Now that part is easy to appreciate, what bothers me is that as English is not my first language, do I get a different meaning/feel from it as compared to say Americans/British?
Now music reminds leads me to
Tanita Tikaram

I don't know if you guys heard this one.

Back to the markets. Copper up around 2%. Again.

Prashant; July 28, 2010 at 5:34 AM
mcHAPPY said...: Prashant,

Thank you for the full Albert Edwards piece.; July 28, 2010 at 6:45 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Well, interesting..didn't get to pay attention yesterday, the mine got kinda busy.

Notice that gold started leaking badly yesterday. CR this morning is full of double dip postings and impending slowdowns. Appears we will have higher taxes next year. And the drug salesman who sponsored lunch at the mine yesterday, a friend of mine, tells me he has put 1/3 of his retirement into gold. Very interesting times.

Wife still thinks it is a depression..."give it time"...; July 28, 2010 at 8:15 AM
mcHAPPY said...: Bruce,

I'm with your wife. In hindsight this will be apparent to all.; July 28, 2010 at 8:18 AM
Anonymous said...: mcHAPPY, I appreciate your take on our home and native land. No recession here, hope not. But my hoping won't help.

From Canada; July 28, 2010 at 8:41 AM
Anonymous said...: Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Morning Audibles 7.29.10 - Within & Without

ya predicting the future?; July 28, 2010 at 8:51 AM
Anonymous said...: New orders for manufactured durable goods in June 2010 fell 1.0 percent, to $190.5 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.6 percent. While overall shipments decreased 0.3 percent, capital goods shipments rose 0.6 percent. Inventories rose 0.9% in June.; July 28, 2010 at 8:56 AM
mcHAPPY said...: @From Canada

Things will probably be much worse here in Canada than the US for these reasons:

1) we are a commodity/resource based economy
2) our housing bubble has not bust - only slight slowdown in 2008 and has since gone to new highs - and will deflate at a much quicker pace than the US
3) stimulus will not be an option this time around - political capital spent in most areas of the world
4) interest rates are already ridiculously low - even with a .5% increase over the last six to eight weeks.

With that said, when a global recovery does start I would imagine the Canadian will be one of the leading indicators - again because of resources.

Boom and bust cycles continue despite the PhD's.

Keep in mind these are just my ramblings. My success rate at profiting from these views has thus far been quite poor.; July 28, 2010 at 8:56 AM
AmenRa said...: Of course Bloomberg highlights the part of the Durable Goods report that had a small advance: http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=abpIRgq4czlA&pos=1
Capital Goods Orders Rise, Showing U.S. Spending Gain; July 28, 2010 at 9:15 AM
CV said...: OK - that was your correction... You can go back to buying stocks now...; July 28, 2010 at 9:35 AM
karen said...: good morning.. I overslept and am attempting to catch up : (; July 28, 2010 at 9:53 AM
CV said...: @Amen

MUST... NOT... DRIFT... FROM... 200MA... - lol; July 28, 2010 at 9:53 AM
CV said...: 1110.86 is kinda sorta an important level not to lose (in the short term)...

- it's .009 from 1120.95
- it's .09 from 1220; July 28, 2010 at 9:55 AM
CV said...: So I would not be surprised to see some PAINT applied to that level several times during the day, or next few days...; July 28, 2010 at 9:56 AM
AmenRa said...: CV

You see that candle on the 1-min chart when the SPX tested 1110.10? Major buying. Got a little to close for their taste.; July 28, 2010 at 10:02 AM
McFearless said...: looks like another bear raid on gold to start the morning, a mini bear-cub raid anyway.; July 28, 2010 at 10:04 AM
CV said...: @Amen

Yup... Same thing yesterday... The candles at

11:23 & 13:47

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rbIIwH9VsjM; July 28, 2010 at 10:05 AM
McFearless said...: Ra,

that looks to have become some near term support, that's 3 touches right around there since yesterday and buyers came in each time, if this is some sort of wave iv then I'd expect to see 1130 or very close before the end of the week, there are some very interesting time relationships right around 1126-1128.; July 28, 2010 at 10:07 AM
CV said...: @Amen

4th touch...; July 28, 2010 at 10:10 AM
McFearless said...: that $TRAN chart was real interesting yesterday for a number of reasons, should probably keep an eye there.; July 28, 2010 at 10:11 AM
karen said...: Pierre Lassonde on gold..

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page96990?oid=108750&sn=2010+Detail&pid=92730; July 28, 2010 at 10:11 AM
karen said...: Ben, thanks.. definitely keep an eye on $tran.. and $copper which may be in a squeeze based on today's jump.. (remember i joked the other day that $copper is the new $gold ?!); July 28, 2010 at 10:16 AM
CV said...: @McF

I'm still not going for it...

We may see 1130 (or even 1150)...

But I'm going with WEAKER (at least for a day or two) into the end of this week...

They'll let the MOMOS call it up when the first days of August roll in...

I could be wrong... It's kind of 50-50 the way I handicap...

I'm going for tests of either 1103 area, 1090 area... and if it gets bad... all the way down at the 50MA 1082...

JMHO; July 28, 2010 at 10:17 AM
karen said...: NEW YORK—China Investment Corp. sold another $125 million of shares in Morgan Stanley, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703940904575395030033149848.html?mod=rss_whats_news_us_business; July 28, 2010 at 10:22 AM
AmenRa said...: Someone made a move to the exit...; July 28, 2010 at 10:22 AM
karen said...: all i know is that i can't leave the screen to make my coffee !!; July 28, 2010 at 10:23 AM
AmenRa said...: Karen

They've been selling/dumping MS for over a week now.; July 28, 2010 at 10:23 AM
CV said...: July 28 (Bloomberg) -- Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Bill Gross said deficit spending by governments that seek to maintain artificial levels of consumption “can be compared to flushing money down an economic toilet.”

That's why Mr. Hairdo makes the BIG BUCKS (to understand deep concepts like that)...; July 28, 2010 at 10:23 AM
McFearless said...: C,

ooh, look at that, your move may play out man. If it does.....shit, I might buy some calls, just putting that out there.; July 28, 2010 at 10:24 AM
CV said...: KT KT KT KT KT...

@k... nice to see you're dressed for the occasion...; July 28, 2010 at 10:24 AM
CV said...: @McF

CV would, in fact, be a buyer of the dip... FWIW; July 28, 2010 at 10:25 AM
McFearless said...: did anyone watch CNBC this morning? Probably not. Was quite the show they put on, Mark Zandi from that prime time outfit Moody's did a "real detailed" analysis on the stimulus and how much it "helped" lots of fancy figures. So he states taht the stimulus "worked"

Joe Kernen says: "well you are promoting another round of stimulus so did you just do some figures that go along with what you are saying"

Zandi: "well nobody can actually prove what I'm saying"

oh man I spit out a frosted mini wheat. I wonder how much time this guy spent on this study that proves something worked that you can't prove...unless your Zandi, or Chuck Norris' beard.; July 28, 2010 at 10:26 AM
karen said...: RIM seen unveiling "iPhone killer" next week; July 28, 2010 at 10:27 AM
CV said...: @Amen

If you're not too busy...

Since Friday is the EOM... Thrill us with some important REVERSAL numbers (either monthly or weekly) on various indices...; July 28, 2010 at 10:27 AM
AmenRa said...: Ben

Looks like $TRAN is getting confirmation of the bearish harami it formed.; July 28, 2010 at 10:27 AM
CV said...: Re: $TRAN

I found this place... Not very sophisticated... But kind of neat for a quick look at $TRAN (without digging too deep)...

http://www.barchart.com/quotes/stocks/$TRAN; July 28, 2010 at 10:28 AM
Darth Vader (Cheney) said...: "Deficits don't matter"

"Luke... I am your father"; July 28, 2010 at 10:30 AM
AmenRa said...: CV

This would be a lot easier: Weekly 3LB Update for 7/23/10

SPX, DOW, $TRAN, NASD, DXY, GOLD, VIX, WTI, SUGAR, 30YR, 10YR, SLV, EURO, LUMBER, BALTIC, XLF, GS, MSCI, NIKKEI, HANG SENG, SHANGHAI, KOSPI, ATHEN numbers are all in there.; July 28, 2010 at 10:34 AM
CV said...: @Amen

OK thanks...

I'll scavenge around...; July 28, 2010 at 10:35 AM
McFearless said...: Ra,

it does, that's all I'm watching right now, that chart seemed to be screaming at me yesterday, I really wanted to watch how it acted the day after the DOW theory confirmation and it doesn't look good, at least not right now it doesnt; July 28, 2010 at 10:36 AM
McFearless said...: what i can say though is we aren't impulsing down, the moves UP look more like fives....here we are at the 1108 gap, couldn't close that after all this work and not try to poke at it a few more times I suppose.; July 28, 2010 at 10:37 AM
CV said...: @McF

I don't know if you read my comment last night...

on $TRAN...

It looked to me like UPS & FDX (big components), were acting as if in a rush to print 61.8% & 50% FIBO retracements...

Could have explained the GAP UP the past few days on those stocks and why $TRAN had been so strong until yesterday...; July 28, 2010 at 10:39 AM
karen said...: Lassonde conceded $950 as a floor for $gold.. for those that didn't read interview.. : ); July 28, 2010 at 10:41 AM
CV said...: If this fails to retake 1110 in the next 20-30 minutes, we could see a mini clavadista...; July 28, 2010 at 10:43 AM
McFearless said...: C,

I did read that and thanks for those thoughts. I have a bit of an odd philosophy however on looking at an individual and drawing conclusions about the index but you had an interesting observation there. it would seem like money rotation, look at utility stocks, same sort of thing going on with some of those; July 28, 2010 at 10:44 AM
CV said...: @McF

It just always looks fishy to me when stocks GAP UP or DOWN large right to fibo levels (as if to paint prettier pictures)...; July 28, 2010 at 10:48 AM
karen said...: Get this! Wednesday, July 28th, 2010, 9:45 am
The governor of West Virginia announced an unparalleled housing strategy, and is now offering the best mortgage rates the state has ever seen — a 30-year fixed-rate of only 3.5%.

Not only that, but the program includes a 0% down payment policy and families are still eligible for closing cost assistance loans.

This program, run by the West Virginia Housing Development Fund, is able to achieve the rate through a $35m bond issue.

http://www.housingwire.com/2010/07/28/west-virginia-offers-30-year-fixed-rate-mortgage-at-3-5-with-no-money-down; July 28, 2010 at 10:54 AM
karen said...: Interesting commentary: http://www.forexlive.com/; July 28, 2010 at 10:56 AM
CV said...: Time to mortgage the farm :-); July 28, 2010 at 10:56 AM
karen said...: I'm really into the charts in this post : ) I'm gonna look for some "news" to explain $copper.. back shortly.; July 28, 2010 at 11:10 AM
karen said...: I should have known.. "China" again..
Copper Rises to 11-Week High on Outlook for China, U.S. Growth
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aYoMiHVVifuk

reminds me of QCOM and the dot.com days.. "china" could move that stock 10-20 pts in a day..; July 28, 2010 at 11:11 AM
Mannwich said...: Zzzzzzzzzzzzzz................; July 28, 2010 at 11:15 AM
CV said...: The Mannwich Indicator is certainly not watching the 1 minute candles...; July 28, 2010 at 11:22 AM
McFearless said...: Karen,

when you need news on any commodity just google china :) they've replaced allen iverson as "the answer"; July 28, 2010 at 11:22 AM
Mannwich said...: @CV: You're right. I'm not. This market has me bored to tears lately, which means something big is about to happen. Maybe?; July 28, 2010 at 11:25 AM
CV said...: @McF

Ocho Cinco + T.O. + Antonio Bryant

Who knows? May work?; July 28, 2010 at 11:26 AM
CV said...: @Manny

There's a big fight going on with the 1 minute ticks...

Not EARTH SHATTERING... but has the potential to create a 20 point swing when someone gives up the battle...; July 28, 2010 at 11:28 AM
karen said...: just watch the $xad if you want to know the next tick..; July 28, 2010 at 11:32 AM
karen said...: speaking of Australia:

http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2010/07/australia-real-estate-forecast-confusion.html

My on-the-ground contacts forwarded to me a comment by the chief economist of business forecaster BIS Shrapnel, who just said that the cooling off of the rest of the world did Australia a big favor by crimping risks. He expects a 30% rise over the next three years. What is curious about his analysis is he also expects interest rates to rise 2% and sees mortgage rates above 9% - not exactly the climate for a robust housing market. Indeed, that is usually the formula for bursting a bubble.; July 28, 2010 at 11:34 AM
karen said...: From TraderMark:

Key levels remain
S&P 1130
S&P 1113
S&P 1100

The bear case is quite simple - this is no different than June; we broke through a key resistance intraday (back then it was the 50 day exponential moving average) wiping out the shorts in yet another V shaped, low volume rally - only to immediately reverse and swan dive. Yesterday we broke through a key resistance intraday (this time the 200 day simple moving average)... and we'll see how it plays out from there.; July 28, 2010 at 11:39 AM
CV said...: @karen

I think TraderMark says it accurately (with respect to the MA's)...

It's still fighting, today, to not drift too far from the 200...

I prefer it on the low side of 1110...

Bulls probably need to prop it up over 1110 by the close or we may get a mini-dip...; July 28, 2010 at 11:58 AM
CV said...: $RUT

Doing the DEATH CROSS boogaloo today...

Last time that happened? October 2008; July 28, 2010 at 12:03 PM
Bruce Willis said...: "Welcome to the party pal"; July 28, 2010 at 12:03 PM
karen said...: Esoteric reading Subversive Economists from NLY blog.; July 28, 2010 at 12:04 PM
karen said...: another canary?? Euribor - Still Rising
Quick post here. The Euribor is the EU equivalent of LIBOR. Three month Euribor has risen from .885 on the day before the Stress Tests results were announced to .893 on 7/27. NOT GOOD!

http://blankfiendsew.blogspot.com/2010/07/euribor-still-rising.html; July 28, 2010 at 12:08 PM
CV said...: A little musical accompaniment for this battle at 1110...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ukunx21UHCA&feature=PlayList&p=0FED6CB195C35711&playnext=1&index=39; July 28, 2010 at 12:12 PM
mcHAPPY said...: That RUT chart looks corrective to me. I'm looking for another blast higher on just about everything (except gold) on -SURPRISE- low volume.; July 28, 2010 at 12:28 PM
karen said...: beige book at 2.. jobless tomorrow.. not sure i can deal with any of this any more.. at least copper is at LOD..; July 28, 2010 at 12:29 PM
karen said...: on $rut being corrective.. ha! you mean correcting back to the downtrend ??

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$RUT&id=p38298062762&def=N&listNum=1; July 28, 2010 at 12:31 PM
karen said...: Wednesday, July 28th, 2010, 11:28 am
Flagstar Bancorp, Inc. (FBC: 3.11 -9.33%), the holding company for Flagstar Bank, reported Wednesday a net loss of $97m, or $0.63 per diluted share, for Q210. This follows a Q110 net loss of $81.9m or $1.05 per diluted share.

The company reported a decrease in non-performing assets to $1.2bn, down from $1.3bn in last quarter. According to the earnings statement, the reduction in non-performing loans was offset by an increase in real estate owned properties (REOs). The allowance for loan losses equaled 7.2% of loans held for investment and 52.3% of non-performing loans, up from 7.1% of loans healed for investment and 47.4% of non-performing loans.

REO assets increased to $198.2m in Q210 from $167.3m in Q110. Flagstar attributed this rise to increases in commercial REO as "legacy loans cycle through the loss mitigation process."

http://www.housingwire.com/2010/07/28/flagstar-losses-widen-to-97m-in-q210; July 28, 2010 at 12:33 PM
karen said...: Ashraf video on Aussie dynamics..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smZGXIdNgFk; July 28, 2010 at 12:35 PM
McFearless said...: C,

yeah, to and chad together. Looking forward to watching how that goes. I already heard Ocho Uno a few times this morning.

Have we locked down enough people for our FF league yet? Seemed like there was plenty of interest.; July 28, 2010 at 12:38 PM
CV said...: @karen

Don't interpret this as a case of "news moving markets", but if the BEIGE BOOK comes in soft (which it ought to)... It might be an excuse for a selloff...

That's why I think we're spending so much time SIDEWAYS here (hovering around 1110)...

It's already a known fact that beige book is going to be weak (otherwise - why would Bernanke, in his testimony last week on Capitol Hill, have used the terminology "unusually uncertain" when referring to the economic outlook)...

Beige book are the Fed's own numbers...

The market is in DISTRIBUTION here at 1110 until that report gets released...

I still think we could see 1082 by Friday morning... (50MA), because one utterance of bad news is going to get the market worried about jobless claims and GDP...

JMO; July 28, 2010 at 12:42 PM
CV said...: But I suppose I'm playing "contrarian" here because EVERYONE seems bullish right now...; July 28, 2010 at 12:47 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: "oh man I spit out a frosted mini wheat."

...real men eat CocoPuffs...; July 28, 2010 at 12:49 PM
Leprechaun said...: Always after me Lucky Charms; July 28, 2010 at 12:51 PM
karen said...: Wall Street doesn't like Warren (not Buffet : )

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE66Q07P20100727; July 28, 2010 at 12:51 PM
CV said...: @Amen

MUST... STAY... PINNED... TO... 1110... UNTIL... BEIGE BOOK... -lol; July 28, 2010 at 12:54 PM
McFearless said...: C,

I'm gonna take the other side and say weak beige book = the start of the last push up...:-)

now if Karen says we just go sideways we've got it pretty much all covered.; July 28, 2010 at 12:58 PM
CV said...: @McF (12:58)

Then I'm going to argue my case (just because I'm bored)...

I say, the market REACTS to the news this time... (a philosophy that nobody around adheres to very much - myself included)...

However... Think of it this way... With your EWI guidelines, you know that TOPS are not made on BAD NEWS, right?

So... IMO... In order to get to the 1130-1150 or so levels you're looking to achieve, you need the IDEA of a top to have been planted...

That idea would come, for Johnny, on weak economic data following a fiesty run-up

- rally
- top
- bad news hits
- selloff
- johnny runs for cover
- shorts pile in
- REVERSAL

Then you see the 1130+ numbers...

I'm handicapping it that way... ESPECIALLY if we can mark a selloff now that takes us down to support at the 50MA...

Market holds that number into Monday, and hey, it could get all the back to 1200 in August...

U never know...; July 28, 2010 at 1:09 PM
mcHAPPY said...: I'm with push up as well. The RUT looks corrective as in the downwards trend has been broken and all I'm seeing on the 5 and 10 minutes charts are a series of 3's.

I would really love to be wrong.; July 28, 2010 at 1:10 PM
CV said...: @McF

But I also know that CV's argument there is going AGAINST a lot of pretty little wave counts that the EWI-ers have been drawing out lately...

This being the FLATTISH WEDGE (4) of a 5 wave C...

So how do I answer that?

Answer: Draw up some new counts... :-); July 28, 2010 at 1:12 PM
McFearless said...: Answer: Draw up some new counts... :-)

but of course...haha; July 28, 2010 at 1:15 PM
karen said...: oops: Regulatory Reform: Too Late to Shore Up Weak Banking System According to Weiss Ratings

1:09 PM ET 7/28/10 | Marketwire The financial regulatory reform signed into law by President Obama last week may be too late to shore up a banking system that has already been severely weakened by excessive risk-taking and inadequate capital, according to new ratings just released by Weiss Ratings on the nation's banks and thrifts.

Among 7,851 institutions reviewed by Weiss, only 911 merited a rating of B+ (good) or better, qualifying them for Weiss Ratings' "strongest" list, while 2,331 received a rating of D+ (weak) or lower, the criteria for inclusion in Weiss' "weakest" list.

Moreover, of the industry's $13.3 trillion in total assets, the weakest banks and thrifts hold the lion's share -- $7 trillion, or 52.9 percent. In contrast, the strongest institutions hold assets of only $491.7 billion, or 3.7 percent of the total, based on first quarter data.; July 28, 2010 at 1:15 PM
karen said...: and more: Martin D. Weiss, president and founder of Weiss Ratings, commented: "Our ratings not only reflect continuing weakness in the wake of the debt crisis, but also indicate a further deterioration since 2009. This trend is confirmed by the large number of bank failures, totaling 103 banks so far this year, compared to 64 this time last year."

"Looking ahead, if the economy suffers a double-dip recession, we could see further loan losses from mortgages and high-risk derivatives, threatening a return of the debt crisis, regardless of the new regulatory reform law. Some of the reform's provisions," Weiss concludes, "are positive first steps toward helping to reduce risk-taking by financial institutions in some future boom cycle, but they do very little to avert another round of the current debt crisis."; July 28, 2010 at 1:16 PM
CV said...: @McF

lol - I'm just having fun...; July 28, 2010 at 1:16 PM
CV said...: @McF

Dude - You ought to jump on my side here...

If we get a crazy dip here... You could buy some 115 August calls and be in phat city, right? :-); July 28, 2010 at 1:19 PM
Colin said...: Thinking aloud (as the IYR/SRS continues to run me over): Would income tax receipts over the next couple years include individuals rolling 401ks/IRAs into ROTHs? I have no idea that magnitude of this (probably small), but wont that be just another method of overstating incomes earned?; July 28, 2010 at 1:19 PM
karen said...: On Wednesday July 28, 2010, 1:13 pm
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The unemployment rate in about three-quarters of the nation's largest metro areas rose last month as seasonal factors boosted joblessness nationwide.

The Labor Department says the unemployment rate rose in 291 of 374 areas in June from May. It fell in 55 areas and was flat in 28.

Unlike other employment data, the figures aren't adjusted to account for seasonal trends, such as college and high school students beginning job searches in the summer or retail clerks let go after the winter holiday shopping season. So the figures tend to be volatile from month to month.

Before June, joblessness fell in most metro areas for three straight months.; July 28, 2010 at 1:20 PM
karen said...: Colin.. fascinating observation as it is something I am considering.. but i'm still leaning toward cashing out and paying penalty and taxes all in one year.. seems i wouldn't be able to touch that roth until it is 5 years old w/o paying taxes on it anyway.. also, since i never plan to contribute to it.. i'm still not sure why I want one..; July 28, 2010 at 1:23 PM
mcHAPPY said...: CV

As I said yesterday, I totally see a dip happening to 1065 area before a last run higher into August.

My only question is do we see 1120's/low 1130's before 1065/1070.

I'm thinking we go higher first, then lower, then back to 1150+ territory.; July 28, 2010 at 1:27 PM
karen said...: This is a coincidence! I was just thinking of my man Bennet the other day!

Random Thoughts: Channeling Bennet Sedacca

http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/todd-harrison-bennet-sedacca-fannie-mae/7/28/2010/id/29348; July 28, 2010 at 1:29 PM
72bat said...: k -
do you anticipate having a fabulously increased income in 5 years, putting you in an even higher tax bracket? (admittedly, tax rates could well be "fabululously" higher in 5 years.) if you're going to be that much better off, why worry about tax on the 401(k)/IRA? how big could it be? (rhetorical question)
i tend to agree with the cash out and run with the money option; July 28, 2010 at 1:33 PM
mcHAPPY said...: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-ive-learned-from-the-market-bubbles-2010-07-28?pagenumber=2

The last paragraph sums up what most people are too 'busy' (or, in the case of many people here the last few days, BORED) to do:

I'll simply say this; the greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist. While financial markets seem docile or worse, backstopped by the powers that be for the foreseeable future, the time to pay attention, remain engaged and prepare for what's to come has perhaps never been more acute.; July 28, 2010 at 1:33 PM
McFearless said...: C,

that's my plan if we get the dip, not sure we will though.

@Colin,

good question, I'd ask ahab whether or not it makes a difference for mortgages, it might not because those will show up on line 15a (IRA distributions) of the 1040 rather than line 7 (wages, salaries, tips)

Much in the same way they don't really treat capital gains as "earned income" they may do the same here.

further, I question if it really can have any meaningful net impact. As we know, the vast majority of stock assets are held by a very small percentage of the population and in those cases you aren't likely to mess around much with a roth conversion, you'll do higher level estate planning to avoid taxes such as an ILIT (Irrevocable Life Insurance Trust) or something like that.

interesting question though.; July 28, 2010 at 1:34 PM
CV said...: @McHappy

To me... at this level... after the fierce run-up in July...

You're either PREDATOR or PREY...

Predators made their July nut (maybe their ENTIRE quarterly nut), by buying 1010 on July 2nd...

They're looking to book profits before the month is done & play with the houses money for the rest of the quarter...

They've now got 2 1/2 days left on that mission...

We just tipped 200MA yesterday so it's too early to call it quits just yet... But there are only 15 trading hours left to trade this month...

All day long they have been tiptoeing quietly towards the exits...

Beige Book may be when someone yells "fire" (or it may not)...

I doubt new BULLS have to worry very much... There's the 50MA underneath, and MOMOS will come to the rescue next Monday & Tuesday...

That's just how I see it...

a 25 point dip here... IMO... Would be healthy...; July 28, 2010 at 1:34 PM
McFearless said...: anyone here every play with the fibo spirals on the charts?; July 28, 2010 at 1:37 PM
McFearless said...: the roth question is a realy sticky one, tax deferred accounts such as a regular IRA are hard to beat out in the long run....really hard.; July 28, 2010 at 1:39 PM
CV said...: @McF (1:37)

Spirals? No...; July 28, 2010 at 1:40 PM
karen said...: vxx sonar http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kcYn5LP7zk8; July 28, 2010 at 1:44 PM
CV said...: Evening star setting up on JJC?; July 28, 2010 at 1:45 PM
McFearless said...: danny finally did a video today; July 28, 2010 at 1:50 PM
CV said...: @McF

link to danny?; July 28, 2010 at 1:50 PM
McFearless said...: 54 handles in a week with top notch

shibby!; July 28, 2010 at 1:53 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Pilgrims must pay to attend 2 pope events in UK
By ROBERT BARR (AP) – 33 minutes ago

LONDON — Pilgrims will have to pay as much as 25 pounds ($39) to attend one of the two public events in England to be led by Pope Benedict XVI during his visit in September, church officials said Wednesday.

The charges — believed to be a first for a papal event — are for a prayer vigil in London's Hyde Park on Sept. 18 and the beatification of Cardinal John Henry Newman in Birmingham on Sept. 19.

...Did you put the Pope up to this CV?; July 28, 2010 at 1:54 PM
McFearless said...: http://www.youtube.com/user/optionmonstertv

danny/tim link

tim is the man; July 28, 2010 at 1:54 PM
karen said...: bat/ben/or anyone.. the 10% penalty on the IRA is ugly in and of itself.. over $100k.. i only see taxes going up and we won't have the benefit of married filing jointly after this year.. currently, my "ex" husband is retired.. so our taxable income this year could be as low as last year where I essentially did a lot of tax loss selling. he has decided to go back to work, however, and is reviewing potential opportunities, i believe..

the roth didn't seem so great when i read it had to be 5 years old before you could withdraw without penalty.. the best option of all for me (but not for my husband is that he keep the IRA since he will be 56 this year.. and I get offsetting $$.. fortunately for us.. we have the cash to do that. for some people, their IRA or 401K is their largest asset.; July 28, 2010 at 1:54 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Maybe we could pay to see Obama?...............................................................nah......; July 28, 2010 at 1:55 PM
Colin said...: McF,

Beyond conversion, just the usage of ROTHs will overstate incomes as well, because for some portion of the population, whatever pool of money they were putting in tax-free 401k is now in an after tax vehicle. But I do agree that the magnitude is small, though this just seems like another policy to bring receipts forward to the govt and run into further budgetary shortfalls later. Oh well.; July 28, 2010 at 1:56 PM
karen said...: is he drunk? ! LOL; July 28, 2010 at 1:58 PM
McFearless said...: "The charges — believed to be a first for a papal event — are for a prayer vigil in London's Hyde Park on Sept. 18 and the beatification of Cardinal John Henry Newman in Birmingham on Sept. 19"

hold the phone. the first time they've charged for a papal event? ha! this hardly describes the history of the catholic church and how they've charged people. Are there any real reporters at all?; July 28, 2010 at 2:02 PM
CV said...: @BinT

CV "jumped the fence" & snuck in to the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum to see pope JPII back in the day...

I'm headed straight to hell!; July 28, 2010 at 2:03 PM
CV said...: They sure are SLOW PLAYING the beige book...; July 28, 2010 at 2:05 PM
McFearless said...: Colin,

probably is overstating in some cases, but when I look at the average of what goes into a 401k each year in a household, or that fact that nearly 40% or so dont' even use the plans available to them, that many people do not qualify to make contributions to a Roth IRA, then consider how low the maximum contributions on Roth's are, it's probably minimal impact. Something you made me think of though is this would be more meaningful once more and more companies offer a Roth 401k....perhaps that's the real thing we need to pay attention to.

In that case if people don't use the pre-tax 401k they can pump way more into the Roth, and if it's a Roth 401k there are no income restrictions on who can do it.

never even thought of it like this; July 28, 2010 at 2:05 PM
karen said...: alaidi - BeigeBook useful as its colour; full of qualified sttemts; starts off by saying "continued increase" econ activity, but broad softening $$; July 28, 2010 at 2:06 PM
karen said...: "U.S. economy expanding at slower rate, job market improving slightly: Beige Book." Oh dear, the Fed didn't note my 1:20 comment..

"The unemployment rate in about three-quarters of the nation's largest metro areas rose last month as seasonal factors boosted joblessness nationwide.

The Labor Department says the unemployment rate rose in 291 of 374 areas in June from May. It fell in 55 areas and was flat in 28."; July 28, 2010 at 2:13 PM
CV said...: "The unemployment rate in about three-quarters of the nation's largest metro areas rose last month as seasonal factors boosted joblessness nationwide."

Yeah... once every 10 SEASONS they do a census...

Clinton got one... Now Obama did...

Those DEMS sure know how to create jobs!; July 28, 2010 at 2:15 PM
arbitrage789 said...: Bruce @ 1:55

That is a pretty picture (of the waterfall).

I think you should post it on your blog (along with a few others) so that it can be appreciated for more than just a few hours.; July 28, 2010 at 2:17 PM
karen said...: just looked at $wlsh and $tran on 60 min charts.. why do i bother? I'm not privy to the algo !; July 28, 2010 at 2:18 PM
karen said...: DL.. i didn't know Bruce had a blog, laughing.. that is a great idea.. he could put something in there and i would love to see those fotos in a larger format.; July 28, 2010 at 2:19 PM
CV said...: @karen

You ought to take a look at the $RUT; July 28, 2010 at 2:20 PM
karen said...: DL, btw, you really light up my life.. or my screen, at least !; July 28, 2010 at 2:20 PM
karen said...: and the $xad just dumped, too.. fancy that!; July 28, 2010 at 2:20 PM
karen said...: CV.. i should have added $rut to the list..; July 28, 2010 at 2:21 PM
McFearless said...: yeah, DL is like a giant care bear with that avatar

8^); July 28, 2010 at 2:24 PM
karen said...: i never imagined Marshall Auerback looking like this!

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/07/will-investors-lose-confidence-in-u-s-debt/; July 28, 2010 at 2:25 PM
arbitrage789 said...: Karen @ 2:19

Not only does he have a blog, but a loyal follower (of the blog) as well.; July 28, 2010 at 2:26 PM
McFearless said...: yeah, I think Nic follows Bruce's blog, i've been to it.; July 28, 2010 at 2:27 PM
karen said...: 1 dead, 2 injured in bear attack at MT campground

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38451940; July 28, 2010 at 2:27 PM
CV said...: @karen

Nobody injured in Bear Attack on Wall St...; July 28, 2010 at 2:30 PM
AmenRa said...: TNX barely staying above 3.00%...again.; July 28, 2010 at 2:32 PM
CV said...: VIX back at its 144MA; July 28, 2010 at 2:35 PM
CV said...: Somebody has to decide what to do around here...

This is getting tedious...; July 28, 2010 at 2:36 PM
karen said...: faz has a rev h&s on the 30 min chart.. what else do you expect me to say, laughing.; July 28, 2010 at 2:37 PM
CV said...: There's every reason in the world that the market out to give back some ground here, but it just keeps hanging on...

It's like a friggin' zombie movie...; July 28, 2010 at 2:39 PM
karen said...: shoot.. wanted to remind everyone what i said about beating me with a stick if i don't buy the dip and sell the close.. but somehow, 'okay, get your stick out' conveys the wrong meaning.; July 28, 2010 at 2:40 PM
karen said...: Bill Gross is getting some attention at nymag for his latest:

http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2010/07/pimcos_bill_gross_wants_to_giv.html; July 28, 2010 at 2:43 PM
McFearless said...: "Nobody injured in Bear Attack on Wall St"

even gld is slightly green.....bear raids, sort of sounds like band aids...same thing I guess.

CV, 2:39

dude, you could have said that at almost any point in any year since 2000. ugh.; July 28, 2010 at 2:44 PM
karen said...: a scary chart is the weekly FXE over 3 years.; July 28, 2010 at 2:45 PM
McFearless said...: karen,

we should have known as soon as "soft patch" started to get some legs the boys from PIMCO would get back out on the circuit again. You'd think they'd be happy ruling the bond world of mutual funds but NOOOOO they have to come up with all the cool catch phrases as well.

new normal
sugar high
No need for a haircut (multiple uses for this one)

etc.; July 28, 2010 at 2:45 PM
I-Man said...: How is the market going to screw me...

Hmmm...; July 28, 2010 at 2:46 PM
CV said...: Gross:

Living up to his name...; July 28, 2010 at 2:46 PM
arbitrage789 said...: 'okay, get your stick out'

What could that possibly mean?; July 28, 2010 at 2:46 PM
CV said...: Sell em Lloyd (and quit jerking everyones chain)...; July 28, 2010 at 2:49 PM
McFearless said...: thank god for sane people like albert edwards:

"Does that mean a double-dip? That's not crucial Edwards says bulls are missing an important nuance—it doesn't take a recession for the equity market to slump."

I'm beyond tired of this completely stupid argument over whether or not we'll double dip and what it all "means".

Who effin cares about the double dip...; July 28, 2010 at 2:51 PM
McFearless said...: I don't like his overall count but dan's triangle on the squiggles looks ok...I'm looking for longs right now, maybe just a quick trade into the close for Karen; July 28, 2010 at 2:56 PM
arbitrage789 said...: Karen @ 2:27

On the subject of bulls and bears, lawmakers in Spain voted to ban bullfighting.

http://tinyurl.com/23674m6; July 28, 2010 at 2:57 PM
CV said...: I'll tell you who cares about the double dip...

Bernocchio, OweBama, BSummers...

Unless we double dip, how can they justify more QE (which is all they know how to do)...

The hilarious thing is... These idiot equity markets aren't letting that happen...

The NUMBERS (unemployment, lack of credit, low output) the people see as VAGUE... They understand stock market crashes though...

So unless they get the PANIC... It'll be hard for them to get their wish to spend even more money... (whether the two things are related or not - which they aren't)...; July 28, 2010 at 2:58 PM
McFearless said...: ok, just bought tiny tiny bit of sso, emotionally I almost want this to go against me, but in my best tom hanks voice

there's no emotions in trading, there's no emotions in trading!; July 28, 2010 at 2:58 PM
Summers said...: CV,

I know how to stimulate; July 28, 2010 at 2:59 PM
I-Man said...: "Federal Reserve have private ownership for years... and stocks and bonds sound like military gear."

-midnite
"vibration"
Ina Now; July 28, 2010 at 3:01 PM
karen said...: DL.. thanks, actually a fascinating article.. especially after visiting Barcelona and learning about the Catalan Separatist Movment..; July 28, 2010 at 3:01 PM
karen said...: alaidi - 10 yr ylds BELOW 3% waking up #JPY When Tokyo takes Wed's profit; #aussie will get hurt, especially against KIWI rate hike in 2 hrs $$; July 28, 2010 at 3:02 PM
karen said...: ben, sso?! i wasn't threatening you with a stick, laughing.. no maybe you'll get the palm of my hand, tho.. metaphorically or virtually speaking...; July 28, 2010 at 3:03 PM
McFearless said...: oh dear lord, colin prompted me to take a look at IYR. wow, two dividend distributions and plus almost 13% on the year.

UFB, now I remember why i was pretending that ticker didnt' even exist.; July 28, 2010 at 3:04 PM
McFearless said...: virtual slaps....bring em! hahaha; July 28, 2010 at 3:04 PM
karen said...: IYR.. ugh! reminds me of how wrong i was when i told my MS friend a couple of years ago.. "they might be able to save the banks but not CRE.." it's performed better than the $spx!; July 28, 2010 at 3:09 PM
karen said...: i'm up for seeing my top!; July 28, 2010 at 3:10 PM
McFearless said...: Karen,

I was also convinced CRE was going to implode...wrong.

though oddly enough, remember that note I sent you all about REIT's doing writedowns...well, those have hardly stopped, and I see the vacancy data at a lot of these places...I think E. Warren called them 'see-through' buildings, because there isn't anyone inside.

tom petty said it:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMyCa35_mOg&feature=avmsc2; July 28, 2010 at 3:12 PM
arbitrage789 said...: Mortgage brokers to be fingerprinted and registered

http://tinyurl.com/25hx8d5

Hopefully people will need something more than a detectable pulse in order to get a mortgage.; July 28, 2010 at 3:12 PM
McFearless said...: who's the idiot that just bought sso; July 28, 2010 at 3:13 PM
I-Man said...: Tell him to sell that shit on the next rip...

:); July 28, 2010 at 3:13 PM
CV said...: This 1103-1104 area was kind of a DAILY target of mine all day...

It may pause here awhile...

But if it gives it up, there could be a downdraft...; July 28, 2010 at 3:14 PM
CV said...: In any case... Monday's gap is covered here...; July 28, 2010 at 3:16 PM
CV said...: Now we have to work on last Thursday's gap...

1069... Yikes...; July 28, 2010 at 3:17 PM
I-Man said...: I got a sell limit placed just under a certain recent trendline... that happens to also line up with a recent supp/res level...; July 28, 2010 at 3:17 PM
CV said...: Speaking of gaps...

None whatsoever on the way down from 1120...; July 28, 2010 at 3:18 PM
I-Man said...: so if we waterfall, I wont catch it... but if the market opens a door...; July 28, 2010 at 3:18 PM
McFearless said...: goog headline:

Beige Book: Two Districts See Slowing

that'd be the eastern US district and the western us district. Nebraska is holding up ok though.; July 28, 2010 at 3:20 PM
I-Man said...: Mr Market's working on a big trend reversal here...

check your hourly charts, and historical reversal patterns.; July 28, 2010 at 3:22 PM
CV said...: @McF

Nebraska... See - it's all because of Ben Nelson's "sweetener" for supporting SOETOROCARE...; July 28, 2010 at 3:23 PM
I-Man said...: reason I say look it up, is because there are several at play in the hourly chart right now...; July 28, 2010 at 3:25 PM
CV said...: @I-Man

Well - we are 19 days from 1010...

21 is coming up...; July 28, 2010 at 3:25 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: DL:

I posted a couple more photos on my blog...we've been a little overwhelmed this afternoon...sorry.

I do love to take pictures of the areas we see when we get into the mountains.; July 28, 2010 at 3:25 PM
McFearless said...: I'm down $175 on this pos already, lol.

that's two rounds of golf; July 28, 2010 at 3:28 PM
CV said...: VIX back at 24.5...

All those October 20 PUT buyers at OPTIONMONSTER must be tearing out their ponytails...; July 28, 2010 at 3:29 PM
karen said...: was just re-reading that Sugarman post.. i guess it is over my head : ); July 28, 2010 at 3:30 PM
arbitrage789 said...: B in T,

Thanks.

I've never spent any time in Tennessee. Just driven through on the interstate.; July 28, 2010 at 3:30 PM
CV said...: @McF

2 rounds of golf $175...

What's that for you?

2 $10 greens fees at a local muni

+ 12 sleeves of Titelists to dump into the pond?; July 28, 2010 at 3:31 PM
I-Man said...: well... lets see now... that got my heart beating.; July 28, 2010 at 3:32 PM
I-Man said...: The I has a position...; July 28, 2010 at 3:32 PM
CV said...: @DL

Well if you drove East - West... That's about 9 hours time right there...; July 28, 2010 at 3:33 PM
I-Man said...: Curses...; July 28, 2010 at 3:33 PM
CV said...: @McF

There you go... You probably just got your nut back...; July 28, 2010 at 3:34 PM
karen said...: jjc at low of day again.. $xad moved off the low.. twitter a tweet with calls for lower aussie tho..; July 28, 2010 at 3:34 PM
karen said...: http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2010/07/hedge_fund_tax_changes_cause_i.html

Hedge Fund Tax Changes Cause Indigestion in Greenwich

The steaks and expensive Cabernet weren't going down so well at a private dinner in Greenwich last week, as 30 private-equity and hedge-fund managers tried to digest the implications of looming federal tax laws that could slash their take-home pay and force them to return money to investors.; July 28, 2010 at 3:36 PM
The Paperboy said...: I deliver the "Evening Star"; July 28, 2010 at 3:37 PM
I-Man said...: Went back... glutton for punishment I suppose.; July 28, 2010 at 3:38 PM
arbitrage789 said...: CV @ 3:33

I drove from Arkansas to VA once (actually
all the way from CA to NJ), but I only saw the Tennessee scenery from the highway.; July 28, 2010 at 3:41 PM
CV said...: @DL

I've driven across country 4 times...

once I made it from Washington DC to LA in 48 hours in an '78 Volvo wagon...; July 28, 2010 at 3:43 PM
I-Man said...: and out again... thats a wrap folks...; July 28, 2010 at 3:44 PM
CV said...: Now that that wave 4 wedge on $SPX is broader...

It still has 1110 right smack dab in the middle of it...; July 28, 2010 at 3:45 PM
I-Man said...: CV 3:43

Sober?

Or with assistance?; July 28, 2010 at 3:45 PM
karen said...: business as usual in the typical recovery- BreakingNews

Tens of thousands of Calif. state workers must take 3 unpaid days off a month, Gov. Schwarzenegger orders http://bit.ly/coAjDi; July 28, 2010 at 3:46 PM
CV said...: @I-Man

Black beauties; July 28, 2010 at 3:47 PM
karen said...: NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Ford Motor Credit Co.'s asset-backed bond, sold late Tuesday, was delayed by about a week because of uncertainty over the financial markets' regulatory overhaul, according to a person familiar with the matter.

The financial arm of Ford Motor Co. (F) sold the bond this week via the public market, though it could have gone via the smaller private Rule 144a market.

The bond, backed by prime auto loans, was increased in size to $1.387 billion from an original $1.082 billion and sold at tighter levels than initial guidance.

The prime auto loan-backed bond, dubbed FORDO 2010B, is jointly led by Bank of America Merrill Lynch, BNP Paribas SA (BNPQY, BNP.FR), Credit Agricole SA (CRARY, ACA.FR) and Deutsche Bank Securities.

Ford's public deal has seven tranches and is rated by Moody's Investor's Service and Fitch Ratings.

The largest tranche of the deal, worth $473.4 million, sold to yield 0.990%.; July 28, 2010 at 3:48 PM

«Oldest ‹Older 1 – 200 of 210 Newer› Newest»

Disclosure/Warning

This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.

TRADERS ANONYMOUS

Morning Audibles 7.29.10 - Within & Without

210 comments:

Post a Comment

Disclosure/Warning

Fictional Character Quote of the Day:

About this Blog

Blog Archive

Search This Blog

AT's Wave Symbology