A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection
Creditcane, wherefore art thou o' Creditcane?.
SPXBullish short day. Gamed the market above 1110. Well above the SMA(21) and now above the SMA(233). Midpoint above EMA(10). Now above the weekly 3LB reversal price. Tested and passed the trendline (3/6/09-5/25/10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1064.88). QE2infinity.
DXYBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Will it break the SMA(144)…yes (after the 3rd try). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) has been violated. Still below the 61.8% retrace and looking to test the 50% retrace. New low on daily 3LB changes (reversal is 82.56).
VIXBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. "Fear is here so don't get fooled on market pumps. Repeat ad nauseam. Arrghh!" Still below the SMA(89). The SMA(144) defense has failed. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 23.95).
GOLDBearish short day. Below the SMA(21) and now below the SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). "To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud!". Closed below 14.6% retrace. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1195.10).
EURUSDBullish long day. Midpoint above the EMA(10). Back above the SMA(89). Tested and passed 1.2935 (fib .1459). Still above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.2895).
JNKSpinning top day. Still looking to test the 76.4% retrace. Still above the SMA(89) and the SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). Closed the falling window from 5/4/10-5/5/10. Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal now 36.43).
GSDragonfly doji day (be careful out there). Still did not test SMA(89). Still below 147.91 (fib .236) again. Midpoint above the EMA(10). Still above 144.98 (fib 2.058 from low). The 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12 is on vacation for now. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 140.25).
10YR YIELDDoji day. Confirmed hanging man (barely so don't trust it). Didn't test the 14.6% retrace. Avoided retesting 0.0% retrace at 28.83. Midpoint above EMA(10). Now above the SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 31.14).
DJ TRANS AVGBullish long day. Now trading above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 4247.00).
LUMBERBearish short day. New home sales higher…BS. Still above the SMA(21). Holding above the weekly 3LB mid. Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 194.60).
29 comments:
wow, EWI still hasn't changed the nested 1-2 i-ii count!?!
thats just bad
and that gap below on the VIX is likely to get filled before this rally is over yes?
Ben,
How are your clients doing?
Bruce,
on average clients have large holdings in pimco total return and Vanguard Total Bond index, so we've got a lot of accounts that are up 3-6% for the year, they aren't down, so in general that makes them happy, but you know how it is, very few people are ever satisfied with what they have, in their accounts, or in life, so we hear stuff like, "why don't I have aapl in my accounts"
thats the business though
Ben,
I understand. I am luckier than you, if I run into someone in the salt mine who doesn't share my opinion about what they need, I just tell them "we may be a poor match." And then I invite them to travel elsewhere. Been doing it that way all my life, and have very few unhappy "clients" that way.
I have been mulling over PTRAX too,.....if rates go up, will PTRAX go down in value, or am I oversimplifying?
Ben
How convenient that gap is right at the monthly 3LB reversal price. It probably will get tested early in August but should hold through the end of the month (hopefully).
Ra,
right? I was looking at your chart and my own VIX chart and I thought, of course that effing gap is right there....
Bruce,
this is really oversimplifying but rates went up every year from 03-07 and ptrax went up as well. I've been hearing people talking about rates going for over a year now...dont' hold your breath.
the bothersome thing for me, which is why I've trimmed what I had in there and haven't added anything in a long time is how big the fund has become, it is the largest mutual fund now if I'm not mistaken. Also, I'm thinking BND will offer somewhat similar returns over the next 6 months and there I can at least place a stop loss.
going to get harder and harder for gross to move around in there.
real shame I was using a lot of this fund: PSSDX, but my dear company shut down my ability to advise it, it's worked out well this year for people that were in before the ban though....
KD has some good postings today/lately:
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/2525-Fractal-Update,-7262010.html
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/2524-New-Home-Sales-They-Sucked.html
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/2522-Green-Sharts!-Chicago-Fed-Index-0.63.html
Should have been using TRANS.X instead of DJTTR.X for the Dow Jones Transportation Average. Fixed.
I'm gonna go ahead and guess that "free week" this week in particular at EWI isn't going to have the desired effect on subscription figures, no fault but their own, it was clear weeks ago their count was b.s. and while I'm not normally critical of RP, his arrogance at putting out that bullshit theorist letter this month is really something to behold.
another though, after today in taking a step back, the right shoulder is going to look a lot better this time around on the ole' H&S....but I bet far less people play that one on the bearish side.
@Ben
Saw that question on EWI message board re: 5 waves down followed by five waves up. I'll chalk this one up to learning experience - I'm up to learning experience 1,618.
Also re: social mood. I was at the dentist today. Waiting to get in I was reading a MacLean's magazine (for you Yanks think equivalent to Newsweek). Anyways, cover page was all about the increasing popularity of Hitler in India, Pakistan, Russia, and parts of Europe. Made me stop and think about how the world is these days. The article ended with something to the effect of, "Many places in the world today has a similar environment that were around the time Hitler come to power in Germany. People don't necessarily agree with Nazism or Hitler's views, they just want change. But don't worry, this movement is still very much on the ideological outskirts. However, this was how it started in Germany too." (again, paraphrasing).
What was the date of this article? April 26, 2010. What does this mean? Damned if I know but funny how that was the day we have our latest top (and for the love of god last top for a decade or two).
mchappy,
the socionomics institute has dedicated the majority of the writings over the last year to that topic, most of what they say is playing out, their social predictions have been far more accurate than the market calls over that time frame.
now before anyone goes thinking I've given up on the idea of huge bear market, consider this chart from Daneric:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/TE4n8haO5LI/AAAAAAAAGnw/kTmrnTxm2So/s1600/2010-07-26-PROPHET.png
hard to say how people would have tried to count an elliott wave during that double top, I've often looked at the 30-32 chart and thought it would have been really hard to count fooling you all the way to the end.
Ben
Until the SPX breaks 1186.69 the monthly 3LB reversal (down) is still the dominate direction. So there can be plenty of pain until then. The weekly 3LB determines the trend underneath the monthly and the daily 3LB determines the trend underneath the weekly.
mcFear: Not surprisingly, Neely counts the 30s'as huge triangle...at least he did back in the late 80s. Maybe that's what would have made it difficult to count.
It's hard to imagine how Hochberg at EWI gets paid for what he does....
If there was any money in it, I would have gone into putting out bullshit forecasts on a weekly basis. ha ha.
As an aside, I sent Jesse a note asking why he didn't put out anything on that Cup and Handle on the DXY. He didn't have a good response....
Funny guy.
Finally, the media is catching on to the fact that tiger will NOT catch Nicklaus in Majors. I've been short-selling Tiger in every single major for a few years now....there has been some pain in that trade, but I'm net positive.
http://www.american.com/archive/2010/july/why-tiger-wont-catch-jack
@AndyT
Agreed. The last few weeks has totally destroyed any credibility I had for Hochberg. Not because he got the count wrong - anyone can do that - but because he would not discuss other probabilities until 2-3 days before the inevitable. EWI prides itself on being objective however the last few weeks has shown somebody trying to make their count work when there were plenty of viable and more likely alternatives.
The joy of hindsight - but chalk up another lesson learned.
this was too good: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/07/intelligence-vs-social-skills/
as for gold, the divergence between the pog and the miners is a waving red flag.. and i posted that exception (in my mind) article from Ned Schmidt a few days ago: http://www.safehaven.com/article/17588/gold-thoughts
figures neely would count the GD as a triangle, lol.
seriously though, just blows my mind they still have those labels on there after today, he was so hot in 2008 it was almost hard to believe at times, having gone through that it'd be nearly impossible not to have some bias I'd imagine.
and, an email to jesse about the dollar....lol, probably broke his monitor throwing gold bars at it...or golden gnomes.
pog = price of gold
exception = exceptional (sorry!)
mcfear:
Yeah, i've had a few e-mails with Jesse. The first one I told him he was either absolutely correct about the whole gold conspiracy or he was the craziest person I've ever "known." I entitled the email "No Gray Area with you."
His response back was: "All I see is gray area."
Bwaahahahhahahahaha
Karen
from the safehaven article:
You down with O.D.D.*
Yeah you know me.
*Obama Debt Debacle
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